Posted August 18, 2011....................................(post and read comments)
Will Bob Brinker's Marketimer stock model portfolios ever get back to where they were four years ago? Will they ever regain the 57%+ losses suffered during the 2008-2009 mega-bear market?
Brinker's model portfolios I and II are still worth less than they were at the stock market all-time-high in October, 2007.
As of October 31, 2007, portfolio I was worth $302,561. According to the Brinker's Marketimer website, portfolio I was worth $286,390 on 7/31/2011.
As of October 31, 2007, portfolio II was worth $241,994. According to Brinker's Marketimer website, portfolio II was worth $235,517 on 7/31/2011.
(Brinker's balanced portfolio III is $11,000 higher than it was October 31, 2007.)
Brinker likes to hearken back to his 1030 buy-signal in July, 2010, and brag about how much the S&P has gained since then.
For awhile, when the market was making great gains in 2011, he would talk about that. Then as the S&P gave back its year-to-date returns, Brinker started gauging the "correction" from the highs of 2011. I can't remember the last time he mentioned the S&P 2007 all-time-high at 1565.
While his model portfolios are fully invested (since 2003!), Bob Brinker has been recommending dollar-cost-averaging "on weakness" all along. So I guess if someone robs a bank or his great Aunt Tillie dies, he might have some new money for the market. Otherwise, how ridiculous for Brinker to now be dangling the carrot of a "new money buy signal."
Three weeks ago on Moneytalk (S&P at 1290) he bragged that he had been buying. But remember that he never advised his subscribers to raise cash. Indeed, the last time he told Marketimer subscribers to raise cash was year-2000, and that was only 65%. So how can any intelligent person take the man's market-timing seriously anymore? The mind boggles.
In the August 2011 issue of Hulbert Financial Digest, in the "Overall Performance Scoreboard," Bob Brinker's Marketimer is not in the top-7 over 5-years or over 1-year.
In order to find Bob Brinker's Marketimer, you have to go to the 20-year time slot where he ranks 6th. (Is that why Hulbert lengthened his list to include 7 instead of 5, like it was for so many years?)
(Brinker Fixed Income Advisor ranks 25th in the 5-year time slot - before Hulbert "adjusts for risk.")
So to summarize where Brinker stands on the stock market right now: All model portfolios remain fully invested. He forecasts S&P 1400's "going forward," and recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new money.
30 comments:
Hi Honeybee
D Brinker has listed bulletin on his web site 8/10/11. Whats up still trying to attract new subscribers?
Honey Bee,
Bob Brinker was live on Doug McIntyre's Red Eye Radio again last night (Thursday 8/18 10:00 p.m. Pacific Time) and Friday 8/19 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time) for the first 1/2 hour of the broadcast here in Los Angeles. Like the other times he's been on he stayed on point and didn't repeat everything three times and stammer on and on. I sure wish he could do that on his own show, it would be so much easier to listen to. If you're interested in listening to the broadcast I'm sure you'll be able to find the pod cast on the WABC web site like the last few times that Bob was on Doug's radio program which originates in L.A.
Rob in Pasadena
As of today's close, Intel's yield of 4.2% is double that of the 10-yr US Treasury... one borrows 40¢ of every dollar it spends while the other makes a profit of 26¢ on every revenue dollar. Insane!
Intel stock is better thant a Treasury bond I guess.
Remember Brinker's actual returns are most likely significantly below his stated returns because of taxes.
When he switches a mutual fund, or rotates the percentage invested in it, you would incur taxes.
Latest auction results for the 5-year TIPS:
-------------------------------
Description: 4-Year 8-Month TIPS
Term: 4-Year 8-Month
Series: W-2016
Interest Rate: 0-1/8%
High Yield: -0.825%
Price: $106.852530
Allotted at High: 57.89%
Accrued Interest*: $0.48199
Total Tendered: $30,262,144,500
Total Accepted: $12,367,034,500
Issue Date: 08/31/2011
Dated Date: 04/15/2011
Original Issue Date: 04/29/2011
Maturity Date: 04/15/2016
CUSIP: 912828QD5
*Per $1,000
------------------------------
The high yield is almost a negative 1%!!!!!
Investor asked: "Brinker has listed bulletin on his web site 8/10/11. Whats up still trying to attract new subscribers?"
Hi Investor,
Yes, I saw that yesterday. I can't think of any other reason that he would leave it on the website except to get new subscribers. Maybe someone else can.
In light of the fact that he covered all salient points in the bulletin on Sunday's show, it can't be because it contains any new earth-shattering news.
The only other thing in the bulletin that he didn't cover was that he "might" find a new buying opportunity, which OF COURSE, will be delivered via special bulletin.
In other words, he's saying: "If the market goes into bear territory and I missed it AGAIN, then I will start giving new all-in buy signals AGAIN! ROFLOL!!!
You can't make this stuff up.
Rob in Pasadena,
Thanks for letting me know about Bob Brinker's Red Eye appearance. I will certainly try to cover it as soon as possible.
TIPS vs VTSMX YTD:
Total Stock Mkt VTSMX –9.02% YTD
Inflation-Protect Sec VIPSX +11.51%
TIPS Charts
WOW!
Anyone have the name and performance of that fund Brinker bought with the money he got from selling his TIPS?
anonymous said:
"Remember Brinker's actual returns are most likely significantly below his stated returns because of taxes.
When he switches a mutual fund, or rotates the percentage invested in it, you would incur taxes."
Absolutely! And we know for a fact that his reported returns do not account for using the same money twice in the QQQQ trade of 2000-2001.
His official record, as he reports on his website and in Marketimer is not an honest reporting.
Also, Hulbert's Financial Digest does not account for that trade, so even his rankings are highly exaggerated.
Read about Brinker's QQQQ trades that he never took responsibility for here:
Bob Brinker's QQQQ Advice and Results
TIPS vs VTSMX YTD:
Total Stock Mkt VTSMX –9.02% YTD
Inflation-Protect Sec VIPSX +11.51%
----------------------------------
Comparing the total bond market to the total stock market makes no investing sense at all.
Two completely different animals for two totally different invesment purposes.
A bond portfolio is NOT for speculation.
That's what penny stocks are for.
anonymous said: "Comparing the total bond market to the total stock market makes no investing sense at all."
Why don't you tell that to Mark Hulbert so that he can do some honest reporting of Bob Brinker's (the junior one) fixed income advisor.
Hulbert puts it up against stock portfolios, then "adjusts it for risk" which brings Junior into..................................You guessed it!
TaDA!
FIRST PLACE!
Are the Brinkers and Hulbert in collusion? Sure looks that way to me.
"Hulbert puts it up against stock portfolios, then "adjusts it for risk" which brings Junior into..................................You guessed it!
TaDA!
FIRST PLACE!"
I didn't know Hulbert was comparing a fixed income newsletter to the total stock market?
Why does he do that? It makes no sense.
What about the other fixed income newsletters? If there are any.
I don't get Hulbert's newsletter.
Maybe you are new to this blog. I have squawked about this several times before.
It makes no sense whatsoever, and even less when you consider that Hulbert does this subjective "risk-adjusting" bull manure. Now let us think about it. Which is more risky? Stocks or bonds?
(Of course, if the economy ever gets hot, that can change. then what will Hulbert do to bail out Jr.?) Someone asked Jr about that on Twitter and jr replied that he had plans to "hedge."
Not only did Mark Hulbert begin to cover Jr's fixed income advisor immediately after it was first published, but the minute it got 5 years under its belt, he started ranking it with all the stock newsletters.
I WROTE TO HIM and asked him if he knew that it was "fixed income." He said yes, but he would guess that a "computer algorithm" saw something that confused it. LOL!
About the time that I had that exchange with Mark, Jr added Wellesley Income Fund to his portfolios. Wellesley is about 35% stock.
But Jr did not change the name of his newsletter.
Jr added Wellesley Income Fund to his portfolios. Wellesley is about 35% stock.
That would mean that his fixed income portfolio has to be taking a huge hit this month.
How will he and Hulbert fudge those results?
Well Mr. Pig, that is the beauty of the whole thing. The other newsletter that are mostly stock will take even bigger hits, so Jr will come out smelling like a rose.
Maybe Hulbert can put Jr on his phony "Honor Roll" along with Marketimer.
TIPS vs VTSMX YTD:
Total Stock Mkt VTSMX –9.02% YTD
Inflation-Protect Sec VIPSX +11.51%
----------------------------------
Anonymous said...
Comparing the total bond market to the total stock market makes no investing sense at all.
WRONG! It makes a ton of sense when you are discussing the market timing abilities of "America's must trusted" editor of Marketimer aka Bob Brinker.
Rather than bashing bears, think how well he would have done switching his active/passive portfolio from almost all in VTSMX (he has a tiny bit in international doing even worse) into that TIPS fund that is taking advantage of both higher inflation and falling rates.
Or am I in the wrong place and we are not to discuss Brinker's bond and stock market predictions here?
MR TIPS
There is no need to ask anyone but me what can be discussed here.
Of course anything about Bob Brinker is welcome for discussion here.
BRACE FOR THE BASEBALL SHOW !!!!!!
Bob will have a tough time explaining the market this weekend...if he dares to come on.
But here's my prediction. He will claim that the current action is just a "re-test of the lows", and he will be prepared to call the exact bottom as it occurs...but only in a "special bulletin", so get those $185 checks in the mail pronto!
Are you sure Jr. writes the fixed income letter. I checked at the Arlington Heights library website and found this:
The Brinker Fixed Income Advi$or
We now have a subscription to the Brinker Fixed Income Advi$or, a monthly investment letter that covers a variety of fixed-income topics including U.S. Treasuries, Certificates of Deposit, Municipal Bonds, No-Load Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds. The investment letter also includes taxable and tax-exempt model portfolio recommendations for a variety of risk profiles. The editor of this letter is Bob Brinker, the host of the weekend financial radio talk program Money Talk. You can find the Brinker Fixed Income Advi$or and all of our investment newsletters in the Business Center.
anonymous,
So even even educated librarians are victims of the Big Brinker Identity Deception, where slowly but surely the reputation of the first one is absorbed by the second one.
To answer your question: Yes, I'm positive. But to find that out for sure, one has to be computer savvy, which many older, retired people aren't.
And one has to dig down deep on the fixed income advisor website to find the whole truth because Jr has put a red herring up front which only says that Robert M. Brinker is the publisher. How many know the initials of the the Bob Brinker's are different?
Here's your proof. As I said, it's not easy to find on his website:
Robert M. Brinker, CFS
Editor & Publisher
Robert M. Brinker has been the editor and publisher of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor since the inaugural issue in April 2005. The Brinker Fixed Income Advisor monthly investment letter covers a variety of fixed-income related topics including U.S. Treasuries, Certificates of Deposit, Municipal Bonds, No-Load Mutual Funds, and Exchange Traded Funds. The investment letter also includes taxable and tax-exempt model portfolio recommendations for a variety of risk profiles.
Robert earned his Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Old Dominion University. He then went on to earn his Master of Science in Information Systems from the University of Colorado. Robert earned his designation as a Certified Fund Specialist © from the Institute of Business & Finance.
Lisa J. Brinker
Editor
Lisa J. Brinker has been an editor of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor since the monthly investment letter began in April 2005. Lisa earned her Bachelor of Arts in English and German from Old Dominion University. She earned her Master of Arts in Linguistics from the University of Colorado.
Robert J. Brinker
Consultant
Bob Brinker has been a consultant to the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor since inception. He has more than twenty five years of investment management experience. He is the host of the weekend financial talk program MoneyTalk. In addition to hosting Moneytalk, Bob Brinker publishes Marketimer, his monthly investment newsletter.
How many know the initials of the the Bob Brinker's are different?
Holy Initials, BatBee. What a dastardly deed and diabolical plan to defraud Goobers and Geezers.
Do you think they sleep well at night doing this just to make zillions of dollars?
Can you listen to the radio show. If you know how can you tell us.
Anonymous
How do we access the McIntyres Brinker radio show?
Investor,
Assuming your talking about Bob Brinker's Red Eye guest appearance that Rob in Pasaadena told us about, here is the link:
WABCradio, Doug McIntyre's Red Eye
I am listening to the program right now. It's in the August 19th, 1AM slot.
Mr. Pig asked: "Do you think they sleep well at night doing this just to make zillions of dollars?"
Unfortunately, I do....
their is no 18th at 10pm is their a mistake. I listened to the 19th thanks
Investor, I posted the link just above. As I said, it's in the August 19th, 1am time slot.
What did you think of the interview? Why do you suppose he didn't say a word about the huge market drop yesterday? Doug mentioned it, but didn't ask any questions.
Honeybee
The callers must have questions about the market and which direction we go from here. Bob must have agreed to be on the show but not answer those types of questions. He answered Dougs questions which would scare any investor with the truth and hopefully some would buy his news letter for a market call. I use to love Bobs shows especially in 2000's when he called the bear market. But something must have changed him and his show during this time frame. I think Bob is protecting his business like his big ego when things go the wrong way for him. He still has a lot to offer but I sure wished I stayed out of a bear market though I'm still asset allocated in at this time.
I use to love Bobs shows especially in 2000's when he called the bear market.
Bob Never called a bear market; not even close. He hedged and that is all. Honey has the details but do not attribute a bear call in 2000 to Brinker - he was not even close.
tfb
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