August 18, 2011, Review of Bob Brinker's Stock Market Advice

Posted August 18, 2011....................................(post and read comments)

Will Bob Brinker's Marketimer stock model portfolios ever get back to where they were four years ago?  Will they ever regain the 57%+  losses suffered during the 2008-2009 mega-bear market?

Brinker's model  portfolios I and II are still worth less than they were at the stock market all-time-high in October, 2007.

As of October 31, 2007, portfolio I was worth $302,561. According to the  Brinker's Marketimer website, portfolio I was worth $286,390 on 7/31/2011.

As of October 31, 2007, portfolio II was worth $241,994. According to Brinker's Marketimer website, portfolio II was worth $235,517 on 7/31/2011.

(Brinker's balanced portfolio III is $11,000 higher than it was October 31, 2007.)

Brinker likes to hearken back to his 1030 buy-signal in July, 2010, and brag about how much the S&P has gained since then.

For awhile, when the market was making great gains in 2011, he would talk about that. Then as the S&P gave back its year-to-date returns, Brinker started gauging the "correction" from the highs of 2011. I can't remember the last time he mentioned the S&P 2007 all-time-high at 1565.

While his model portfolios are fully invested (since 2003!), Bob Brinker has been recommending dollar-cost-averaging "on weakness" all along. So I guess if someone robs a bank or his great Aunt Tillie dies, he might have some new money for the market. Otherwise, how ridiculous for Brinker to now be dangling the carrot of a "new money buy signal." 

Three weeks ago on Moneytalk (S&P at 1290) he bragged that he had been buying. But remember that he never advised his subscribers to raise cash. Indeed, the last time he told Marketimer subscribers to raise cash was year-2000, and that was only 65%. So how can any intelligent person take the man's market-timing seriously anymore? The mind boggles.

In the August 2011 issue of Hulbert Financial Digest, in the "Overall Performance Scoreboard," Bob Brinker's Marketimer is not in the top-7 over 5-years or over 1-year.  

In order to find Bob Brinker's Marketimer, you have to go to the 20-year time slot where he ranks 6th. (Is that why Hulbert lengthened his list to include 7 instead of 5, like it was for so many years?)

(Brinker Fixed Income Advisor ranks 25th in the 5-year time slot - before Hulbert "adjusts for risk.") 

So to summarize where Brinker stands on the stock market right now:  All model portfolios remain fully invested.  He forecasts S&P 1400's "going forward," and  recommends dollar-cost-averaging for  new money. 

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