STOCKS.....Brinker continues to remain fully invested in equity allocations, and still recommends dollar-cost-averaging during periods of weakness (for new money). "The fact that we are now in the longest cyclical bull market run in history serves as a reminder that it it unwise to become complacent abut the stock market." On Moneytalk today, Brinker commented that the stock market had quadrupled since the 2009 mega-bear low.
Honey's market comments: Another nice week in the stock market. The S&P made gains each day and ended up 1.16% for the week. The S&P is up 7.76% YTD.
BRINKER'S MARKETIMER: DON'T BECOME COMPLACENT....Caller Victor wanted to clarify what Bob Brinker meant about complacency on page 3 of the SEPTEMBER
MARKETIMER: "The fact that we are now in the longest cyclical bull market run in history serves as a reminder that it it unwise to become complacent abut the stock market."
Brinker replied: "I think what I mentioned in that letter is that it is not a good idea - to paraphrase - to be too complacent.....The reason I feel that way - I remember so well what happened at the end of 1999 and the beginning of year-2000, when we saw a high level of investor complacency come into the market. And people believed as we started into year 2000 it was a one-way market. We had an tremendous five-year run leading up to that.....and people came to believe that the stock market could only go up every year....They became complacent and took a lot of risk....
Brinker continued: "We saw what happened in year-2000, 2001 and 2002 - we saw roughly a 50% drop in the S&P 500....We have had a tremendous run in the market. So what I am expressing in the passage is simply to say, it's always a good idea to not be complacent. We've had almost an unprecedented run since the spring of 2009 where we have the S&P 500....more than quadrupled in value since the spring of 2009.....I think it's a good idea for subscribers - and that was addressed to subscribers - to try not to become complacent." ==>dRahme Audio Clip
Honey EC: Brinker never misses an opportunity to make his radio audience aware of his utter contempt for them if they are not subscribers. Never mind that without his radio audience, he would have been a small-peanuts newsletter hawker. And never mind the money he makes selling Moneytalk on demand, books, his son's copy-and-paste-off-the-internet-investment rag, and Marketimer. (Brinker is on record even calling his audience "freeloaders.")
NO BALANCED FUND IN MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIOS.... Jim from Kansas said he knows that Marketimer no longer has any balanced funds, and asked if a balanced fund would become a buying-opportunity after rates went up. Brinker replied: "You are correct, Jim, that we don't have any balanced funds in the model portfolios at this time. What would happen hypothetically...let's say the fund had a 50-50 stocks vs. bonds. What would happen at some periodic balancing schedule that the manager would be follow, there would be an effort to balance the portfolio from an asset allocation standpoint. As far as that being a buying opportunity to bonds, that would depend what happens to bond rates going forward. If interest rates rise from 2% to 3% and you buy the bonds which are down in price because the rates went up, was that a good thing to do? Only if rates hold steady or go down - because if rates continue to go up, the bonds you buy would also depreciate."
Honey EC: Back in 2013, Brinker took extreme measures to be ready for interest rates "normalizing." At the time, he had a portion of his fixed-income portfolio and his model portfolio III (balanced) in Vanguard Wellesley Fund. I haven't checked lately, but last time I did check it, Wellesley continued to do very well - and still is.
IS THERE A FINANCIAL CRISIS COMING.... Mike from Oregon asked about a Wall Street Journal article that claims there will be a financial crisis in the future.
Brinker replied: "If you write an article that says sometime in the future there is going to be a financial crisis, you are virtually assured of being correct. If you go back through the history of the country, there have been many periods that could fairly be described as periods of financial crisis. So that's basically stating the obvious. The real question is when." (Mike pointed to interest rates going up, credit turns, government raise rates to sell bonds and the stock market starts down.)
Brinker continued: "That's a fairly common scenario. There's nothing unique about painting that kind of scenario...I will say this, one way you will know in advance what is going on with how investors approach government and corporate debt is by looking at interest rates in the market place. When you look at interest rates right now, you could make an argument that they are lower than they should be.....We have real GDP growth right now of 2.8% YOY....And we also have YOY inflation - using the Fed's favorite gauge of a little over 2%......So that would easily get you into the mid-4's on the Ten Year Treasury......We are not there. We are near 2.9.....As long as that is happening it is very unlikely that we are going to have a financial crisis right here."
BANK VS BROKERAGE CD'S.... Caller Roger from Sacramento asked about the difference. Brinker simply said it had to do with caring about yield and then reminded Roger to only use FDIC-insured CD's. These comments came in this afternoon from Bluce with more information:
>Binky missed the biggest difference in bank vs. brokered CDs, when answering one of the callers.
> Bank CDs must be held to maturity, unless one pays a penalty to sell early.
> Brokered CDs can be sold for their current value on the open market much like a bond.
ECONOMY....BB comments: It looks like a heathy GDP for Q3 ==>dRahme's Audio Clip
JOBS.....tightening labor market.
FOMC RATE HIKES...Today, BB said that he is still keeping durations very low in anticipation of the FOMC raising rates again on September 26th. He also expects another raise in December and possibly "2 or 3 more in 2019." ==> dRahme Audio Clip: FOMC
RETAIL SALES.... up over 6% YOY - "a good number."
53 YEAR-OLD RETIRING INDIANA TEACHER WANTS TO KNOW IF SHE IS AT CRITICAL MASS WITH $70,000 YEARLY PENSION AND HALF OF HEALTH CARE FOR LIFE.... Brinker did not answer her question about Critical Mass. Instead he made it into a "lump sum vs pension" question. That didn't work out well since she said there was no lump sum offer. BB did point out that she got paid only because the taxpayers stay and are willing to pay up.
Honey EC: Don't worry, she had a spare half-million that she doesn't need to touch which Brinker recommended she put in a "balanced portfolio" to act as a "wonderful blanket" for her pension money.
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY
Bob Brinker was back in the
saddle today, this 16th day
of September, 2018 (after two weeks off).
Ed Yardeni, was his third hour guest and he was ALSO back in the saddle
– having been on the program six months ago in March. Ed now has both the MoneyTalk baseball cap
AND coffee mug. Here is the link to the
earlier interview, supplied by Honeybee:
Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz
The topic today was the
same as before, his book, “Predicting the Markets, A Professional
Autobiography” published in March 2018.
The guest said he wrote the
book to share his 40 years of experience in finance.
The first topic was trade
and tariffs. Mr. Yardeni said he is “all
for free trade” but did not disagree with what the President is doing. He likes the idea of negotiating bi-lateral
agreements instead of complicated, multi-lateral ones. They take so long to hammer out that some of
the issues they were designed to address may have gone away. He thinks the President may declare victory
before the mid-terms and this could push the stock market higher.
Bob agreed on the
advantages of bi-lateral agreements and asked Ed about China and the theft of
intellectual property. Ed said this
President is the first to blow the whistle on China.
The conversation then
turned to interest rates. Inflation is
about 2% and interest rates (the Fed) are pushing for 3%, leaving about 1% real
increase which the guest was comfortable with.
Our rising rates are having an effect on emerging markets. Money is starting to flow back here at the
expense of emerging markets. Each
country in this sector seems to have its own problems, he said, mentioning
Turkey and China.
What would an interview in
September be without re-visiting the meltdown in September 2008?
This is the 10th
anniversary of the “Lehman decision,” which let it go bankrupt. The guest said Chapter 8 in his book
addresses this. The market was down
about 20% BEFORE Lehman was let go.
Afterward, the market crashed. He
said Treasury Secretary Paulson did not like Lehman’s Dick Fuld and that contributed
to the decision. He reminded us that after
refusing to bail out Lehman, the Fed and Treasury bailed out AIG and in effect,
turned Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley into banks, allowing them access to
loans from the Federal Reserve.
What about inflation and
wages?
Bob said hourly wage
increases are being offset by inflation.
The guest dodged around some, mentioning that people often use anecdotal
evidence to make their case, then he cited some research he did which indicated
an upward trend in (real) wages. Caller Jim from California was queued up and
cited his own anecdotal evidence, working for $10 per hour in 1967 …
Ed still likes the new Fed
Chair, Jerome Powell. (He liked him in
March too.) He said the Fed is going
after these incremental rate increases – on the way to 3% so that if they see a
recession over the horizon, they have some wiggle room to lower the rate.
The deficits and debt in
Washington DC are of some concern to Mr. Yardeni but he said worry about this
issue has come and gone for 40 years.
The stock market does not seem to be worried but it is on his radar
screen.
They spent a few minutes
hammering Robert Schiller the developer of the CAPE Schiller valuation model
which has been telling us that stocks are overvalued – and have been for some
time now. I think it was Bob that said
Schiller was “blowing a lot of smoke.”
Chapter 14 of the book deals with valuation. The guest explained that Schiller’s model
looks at trailing 10 year Price/Earning ratios.
If you are going to use this metric to gauge your market exposure,
you’ll get out too soon. If you look at
only forward (estimated future) P/E ratios, you might jump in too soon.
When will the next
recession come? The guest said he didn’t
know, “but give me three to six months warning.”
That said, I saw an article that mentioned a paper
issued by the San Francisco Federal Reserve bank on how the inverted yield
curve may be a reliable predictor of recessions. I tracked down the actual research paper by Michael
Bauer and Thomas Mertens of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Here is a link: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/august/information-in-yield-curve-about-future-recessions/
Mr. Yardeni gets high marks from me because he seems
like a plain talking guy and he described himself as an optimist. I think the context was, “I have 5 kids, I
have to be an optimist.” He is
certainly more informative than the guests from Great Britain and Europe
pontificating on the US and European economies.
My Stars and Stripes are showing.
Sorry. NOT.
Hey Bob, read Jason Zwieg’s Wall Street Journal
column on Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Mgt. and see if you can get Mr. Marks
as a guest. He’s coming out with a new
book, “Mastering the Market Cycle.”
Honey here: Thanks Frankj. I enjoyed listening to Ed Yardeni and reading your summary of his second guest-appearance this year.
Listen Talk Radio:
TALKOFCONNECTICUT
65 comments:
I'm not sure it is a live show. He did reference the upcoming fed meeting, but that could have been recorded in advance.
Yea, fresh Brinker!
To be fair one of my other favorite radio programs was CarTalk. They used to announce reruns at the beginning of the program. But in the last couple seasons before they officially retired, they went heavy reruns and they didn't tell you up front either. You'd have to guess by hearing an old call or formally used Puzzler.
No actual calls taken during the first 1/2 hour....
Binky missed the biggest difference in bank vs. brokered CDs, when answering one of the callers.
Bank CDs must be held to maturity, unless one pays a penalty to sell early.
Brokered CDs can be sold for their current value on the open market much like a bond.
See? I told ya. Teacher calls during first hour with a $70,000 pension upon retirement.
Yes, Car Talk was great. Was my connection to the USA while serving a one-year military assignment to South Korea in 1991. Would listen on Sunday evenings via Armed Forces Radio. Favorite hour of the whole week. And it's pronounced Caa Tawk, with a weekly Puzzla brain teaser.
Teachers in my blue collar town who are at the top of the pay scale make about $88K per year with 10 years experience and a Master's degree and continuing education credits. They have a secure, state funded pension as well. You check the boxes, you get the money, i.e., whether you are a a great teacher or a mediocre one.
Incredible hearing about the lucrative teacher pensions. Has anyone seen of the latest cover of TIME magazine? Cover story is a teacher with a masters degree, sixteen years experience and has to work two extra jobs and sell her blood plasma to make ends meet. Something doesn’t quite add up here. I suspect this is a sleight of hand technique by the media to get women to the polls in November.
Honey: On your summary page, you wondered how Wellesley has done since Binky bailed on it in 2013 (incidentally, that's the same year I bought it, and I still have it).
According to Vanguard's site, VWINX has averaged 6.65% for the past five years, for a total return of 37.98%. Great timing move, Binky.
.
Thanks Bluce…..I was pretty sure that it had done well. All of those moves that Brinker made were very costly "for subscribers" who actually followed him off that cliff.
He covered his tracks by making other changes since then that make it virtually impossible to figure out exact numbers anymore - even though Jim did it for the first couple of years.
Other bad moves Brinker made back then - he sold all Nasdaq holdings and Ginnie Maes.
I'm sure we all know what the Nasdaq has done over the past 5 years!
Interesting article by Ed Yardeni giving six reasons he thinks stock investors shouldn’t fear a flattening yield curve.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ed-yardeni-that-flawless-predictor-of-recession-and-a-bear-market-is-wrong-this-time-2018-07-11
Yardeni says (among other reasons): "a global perspective certainly helps to explain why the U.S. [10-year] bond yield is well below nominal GDP growth. So this time may be different for the bond market, which has become more globalized and influenced by the monetary policies not only of the Fed but also of the other major central banks."
Another awesome Frankj guest summary with humor. As always, thank you!
Thinking about "asking" my subordinates at work to view it so I can quiz them at the coffee machine, "Did you get your Frankj today?" and enjoy their excuses!
Which brings forth a question, "Why was Ed recruited again in only six months with the same book to sell?"
Didn't hear a discount offer with custom inscriptions by the author. If offered, would've bought a case of them to hand out to my doctor, lawyer, accountant, mechanic and dental hygienist (whose husband is a wealth manager).
So let's get all FBI on this. Was it Bob's producer or Ed's publicist who made the first phone call? What did Bob know and when did he know it?
I'm guessing that Bob's operation was experiencing a "dry barrel", which is moonshiner lingo to describe a failure of the copper piping that transports the condensed "juices" from the coil to the jug. As they say, "Anything can happen", especially when it's unattended.
So maybe Ravi made an emergency call to Ed because he's an old college chum from northern New Jersey and he doesn't reside near the Greenwich Mean Line where it's already winter and the time difference is +7 hours today, and +8 hours when we are done with Daylight Savings Time.
They don't have daylight savings time in the UK because it's so far north they don't have any daylight to save after July 31. But don't worry, I have a good Alaska first-week-of-June story for you. And a Frankfurt in September tale too.
Just let me know if you are interested.
The Brinker Bots are restless again over at M*.
https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/383182/3928790.aspx#PageIndex=4
Stinky: Ha, good stuff!
This seems to be a common problem online: People complain about thread content, but continue to read them and continue complaining!
The solution, as the one poster noted, is obvious.
Stinky and Bluce,
Several people over at M*binky are B2B (Born to Bitch).
Stinky said...
The Brinker Bots are restless again over at M*.
Stinky,
I made a little contribution today, all in fun of course.
Regarding the BinkyBotBootlickers:
It's amazing how people are blind to the idea that the problem with Binky is that he's being deceptive, dishonest, by not announcing up front that a show is a re-run -- as opposed to every other talk show host I've ever listened to does.
The complaints are NOT about how often he takes off, it's about the deception.
This does not seem like a complicated subject to understand yet some people cannot seem to grasp it. As to being perpetually confused, I wonder which side of the political aisle they're on, lol.
Bobnotbrinker,
Thanks for your contribution to M*. I just followed up with my own offering.
"You can't handle the truth!" in a great line to use for those who reflexively defend Brinker.
I just wonder how many of the Brinker Bots are friends, relatives, or maybe even Brinker himself.
.
Stinky and Bobnotbrinker…. I looked at your M* posts. Good job!
Yes, you can bet that there are some there that have one mission and that is to get rid of you and to discredit this blog as much a possible.
They defend that which is indefensible knowing that some might actually take a look at the snake oil and see there is no wizard behind the curtain.
(Sorry to mix metaphors.)
Thank you Stinky and Honeybee!
It gets a bit rough over at M* from time to time. And some of the ruffians seem to take quite a personal interest in rebuking any who dare not worship at the church of binky.
For that reason, I think Stinky was absolutely correct when he posited:
"I just wonder how many of the Brinker Bots are friends, relatives, or maybe even Brinker himself."
I wonder why we continue to get schooled, scolded and shushed so often at M*? Why don't those folks just ignore us if they dislike our contributions?
Yes, Stinky has the answer.
This is probably "Yesterday's Newspaper", but if not - here goes:
Re: Long-term Government issues:
If you own TLT (or similar ETFs such as SPTL, VGLT, TLH, ZROZ etc.) you would do well to take a close look at chart, stats, etc.
Hint: ETFs behaving badly.
Some of the mutual funds in this category include VUSTX, PRULX, PFGAX, etc.
Hint: Mutual funds behaving badly.
Reading comments here about deceptive practices concerning Cap'n Starship from some other blog. The following performance numbers are from Mr B's own website. The evidence is hiding in plain sight.
10 years ending 12/31/2017
Portfolio 1 116%
Portfolio 2 118%
VTSMX 128%
If you hired a financial adviser (sorry, market timer) in 2008 who chose to ride out the worst bear market since the Great Depression and given several years to recoup from that fiasco still could not outperform a total stock market index in that same time frame, would you retain his/her services?
Would I? No.
VUSTX is Vanguard's Long Term Treasury. Lost 6.85% in net asset value year to date. Duration is 16.87. SEC Yield is 2.90
VUSFX is the ultra low duration (0.96) fund, lost only 0.15 YTD. SEC yield 2.52%.
The SEC yield is based on the trailing 30 days. I like it better than the 12 month trailing yield.
.
Thanks Birdbrain....
So beginning in 2019, those 10 years numbers will roll over to the beginning of the bull-market recovery. We know the market bottomed out in March, 2009.
Just a quickie aside to Birdbrain's info. Mr. Clinker might say his results are as good as the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index because he was more diversified via an international allocation, which implies less risk because of the diversification.
He would say, "On a risk-adjusted basis."
VTSMX might not be international to the max extent, that's why Vanguard also offers a Total International and even a Global and a "Total World" index which sounds like they will "bank" any investor no matter which world they live in, be it Clingon or Jedi.
Certainly, it's a risk vs. reward game. Much fun to bet on Tesla, but it's a bet. And then it's crying time when something happens. Wish I'd bet on Buck Owens when he was a young sprout.
And Frankj, am looking at that same Ultra Low Duration fund. Gonna get me some of that (GYSOT) a few weeks after the Fed rate hike ripples thru the bond market and perhaps the NAV will be a little lower.
Gosh, what a battle for yield, worse than dodge ball in 9th grade when confined to the gym because it was raining outside. Hated that rain. Moved to Bakersfield.
Just noticed that both this blog and the Brinker thread over at M* are in the top 10 results in a Google search for “Bob Brinker“.
So anyone trying to do a little research on Brinker will have two sources of the truth near the top of the results.
.
Stinky...So NOW we know why the Brinker's (bots?) are so interested in discrediting this blog.
LOL @ Stinky's (and Honey's) documentation of Binky's deceptions and coverups being "hogwash" and "trivia."
I understand that a few of the BinkyBotBootlickers own this website.
Why am I not surprised?
Alvis O.: I was thinking the same thing, that is, the phrase "risk adjusted," as a handy descriptor for performance. And my dodge ball experience was in the 5th grade at Montibello Elementary school. Dodge ball sharpened eye-hand coordination, agility, and other skills. Too bad it is outlawed in a lot of places now.
Does anyone know if Brinker Junior did guest host any of Senior's Talk Show?
.
Kenp11. No, BB Jr never has been on the air even for a moment of Moneytalk.
I have heard his voice one time because he made a guest appearance on some other show, but don't recall whose.
Honeybee said (Re: Binky Jr.)
I have heard his voice one time because he made a guest appearance on some other show, but don't recall whose.
Honeybee, I have heard rumors that he had several guest shots on the Howdy Doody Show.
Ya bobs old and never had a cristal ball, lets get back to some usefull info like is sp 500 hitting new highs or anything that has helped put the kids through college.
Well, taking the carrot on the stick from Ruyfa. Maybe the sp 500 is near new highs but it don't mean much. Remember the 1972 Ford Galaxie 500? Same story.
Best way to put kids through college is they pay for it. You'll be amazed at all the funding sources they find. Because they are younger with more energy than beat-down 40 yr old parents.
They will find grants, scholarships, fellowships, work-study jobs, state largesse based upon circumstances, military service, rich people, poor people with connections, charity, welfare and even friends, especially at community college.
Don't need a business plan to start college. Just go. Every class, every semester accomplished is one big step along the good road. It's definitely all good.
A superior risk adjusted rate of return implies narrowing the range of expected returns for each unit of risk ensued, hence an addition of international stocks does not do that. It actually increases the risk, while adding diversification, and the added risk boosts the expected return. So if under perform your selected benchmark by adding internationals you really blew it as it should have increased your expected return relative to your benchmark(fyi, this is all relative to your objective).
tfb
With international included in Brinker's stock portfolios, why would he use a domestic index as a benchmark?
I don't need a benchmark because all my equity funds are index funds, so my portfolio IS the benchmark.
Reagans former budget director has to ne the best stock market contrary indicator I've ever heard. I really like the way he lays out his case against the economy. It's so convincing. But its so wrong to the point of being tragic.
J Wales: You must be talking about David Stockman, right? He has been "gloom and doom" for a very long time.
.
From Fox Business website:
Dow, S&P 500 set record highs
Liberals are wanting to end the Illinois cash bail system for arrested criminals and leave it to wacky liberal judges discression. We had a wife murderer make bail in the chicago burbs due to judge's discression. Seems like catering to criminals, with victims an afterthought. Trump hater Jerry Brown got in put in California who's system is flooded with illegals. Any Californians have thoughts about the society drain, too cash poor to make bail bad guys back on the street.
I have received notices from Vanguard over the past year or two wanting me to convert my Vanguard mutual funds accounts to brokerage accounts. Today, I received a similar notice except it now seems to be demanding that I "transition" to the new brokerage "platform". I have only mutual funds and have no thoughts of having any brokerage transactions in the future. I have read Vanguard's reasoning for the transition but am unsure of what it all means. I have been entirely satisfied with the present platform for close to thirty years. What are others thoughts on Vanguard's demand?
.
Bob Wemer...I called Vanguard when I wanted to know how to sell a mutual fund and buy the equivalent in an ETF - all Vanguard.
The answer was to convert a long-time account to a brokerage account.
Vanguard is not my primary investment house, so did not want to do that.
So I refused and he did not say anything about it be required.
Bob Wemer...https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=250869&newpost=4127493#p4124076
Quote:"The OP wants to know why they should switch. The answer is you do not have to and if you invest in mutual funds only, there is no reason to switch. In fact SOME functionality (that you may or may not care about) is removed if you switch. This has been discussed many times on this forum, the specific features are known to Vanguard and if they do not make such enhancements then many will not switch. I personally use such features that would be removed. Not that I couldn’t live with the brokerage interface, but it is less optimal for my needs, and I am bound by employer not to use their broker platform anyway, as other posters have also stated.
And the comments that this is the trend for the industry is ridiculous. MOST fund companies do not offer brokerage at all and only offer a fund-only website. BlackRock in fact offers a fund-only site (similar to the Vanguard site you now use)...
in fact they have no online brokerage site at all.
If you google “blackrock online brokerage”. TDAmeritrade comes up, and others. BlackRock directs you to other brokers...
On this board, people think Vanguard and Fidelity set the standard and fund only access is some legacy thing from the past, but it is not. It is a choice by 2 major firms to get into the brokerage space, just as schwab decided to get into etf/funds. But they are 2 separate businesses with 2 separate needs, for different clients. If one or the other meets your needs, don’t let Vanguard (or some board poster talking about platforms) tell you what to do. They cannot force you to switch to a brokerage acct. There is nothing wrong with either platform, and decide which one is useful to you." EndQuote
.
Note:
I do not read,
I do not open,
I do not see any part of,
ANY COMMENTS THAT COME TO THIS BLOG FROM ANONYMOUS.
They go straight to the trash bin.
So if you have something worthwhile to say, please type a name/handle in the link provided before sending.
I went ahead and let them establish a brokerage account in addition to the regular account. The brokerage account contains any individual stocks, any non-Vanguard funds and any ETFs whether they are Vanguard or not. Only the Vanguard mutual funds stayed behind in the regular account.
That is some nice info from everyone on all these new topics. I like this college, Reagan, Vanguard vs Fidelity, full disclosure I invest with both. Thanks
frankj,
I am probably missing something here, but I don't understand the reluctance Vanguard customers have with positioning mutual funds into a brokerage account. Please help me understand.
Thx
Yes Frank you are right. Stockman. Seems like a sincere guy. They seem to like to interview him.
What am I not understanding about VG and their accounts?
At Schwab I have a SEP-IRA account, and then a "brokerage account" for my non-tax deferred holdings.
Bobnotbrinker: I am not sure I can answer the question you asked because I did not have any reluctance. I didn't see moving the non Vanguard stuff to a brokerage as a big deal for me. I assumed that there must be some money saving reason on Vanguard's part but I never tried to delve into it.
Bobnotbrinker: Go to the Boglehead link I provided above (including other posts in the long thread) and read about some customer complaints about specific account features and functionality that is not available on the brokerage platform. I have both account types. Personally I don't use "Transfer on Death" or any of the other features missing on the brokerage platform, so it is no big deal to me one way or the other. YMMV.
Be forewarned: when Vanguard "updates" your accounts to brokerage status midyear, you will receive 1099s for both old & new accounts. It made things unnecessarily cumbersome for me last year. Wish I'd never agreed to it.
frankj,
Thanks.
I deal with both Schwab and Fidelity. Both are quite similar with regard to how accounts execute and depict trades, positions, etc.
1. Brokerage Accounts are displayed on their website and can include any/all types of securities. Customers are able to review, trade, etc. on the website.
2. Upon request, Brokerage Accounts can also be displayed on their Active Trading Platform and can include any/all types of securities. This platform has many advanced features in addition to being able to review, trade, etc.
3. Active Trading Platforms:
Fidelity: ATP = Active Trader Pro
Schwab: SSE = Street Smart Edge
Should anyone be interested here is a short Fidelity video (7:55) on "Trading in Active Trader Pro." Other ATP videos follow if you are interested in additional features (charting, etc.)
Here is the Fidelity ATP Youtube link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNj0hjuPkhQ
I guess Brinker is finally rejoicing that the 10 Year Treasury appears to be above 3% to stay for a while. After 5 years of waiting his prediction has finally come true. Long term bonds are finally taking a hit. If a person predicts the same thing long enough they will eventually be right.
When Bob bailed from Ginnie Mae bond fund in June 2013, which bond fund did he recommend? I'd like to compare the performance. The Vanguard Ginnie Mae would be worth $11,022 today, total return, based on $10,000 invested on June 1 2013.
frankj,
Brinker switched from the Ginnie Mae Fund into the Fidelity Floating Rate Fund (FFRHX), but then he ended up selling that fund and buying the Doubleline Total Return Fund(DLTNX), but then he ended up selling that fund as well. He's made things almost impossible to track performance of his portfolio.
Oh yes, Jim, absolutely. BB is in the catbird seat now. He's in the high alfalfa.
In fact, he just cancelled his hard-earned weekend off in order to get back on the radio and crow about his "I told you so" moment. He's beside himself with giddiness and has a newfound spring in his step. Just this week he appears amazingly virile for a former bond manager. I think he's literally floating on Cloud Nine.
So anyway, gird yourself for some scolding and finger-wagging during his opening monotone this Sunday. He'll be reminding us that we never should've doubted him.
Then he'll gloat that the long-duration bond holders have been "taken to the woodshed" where he himself will administer the lashings.
I can't wait.
Jim: Yes, I noticed the ten year has closed above 3% for several days now.
Bet #1: Will Binky be on live Sunday?
Bet #2: If he is, will he mention the ten-year closing above 3%?
#1 is anybody's guess.
#2 is a slam-dunk.
.
Thanks for that Jim. As I recall you were able to make comparison the bond funds that Brinker sold and bought to "lower duration" for only one, maybe two years.
After that he muddied the water so much it became impossible.
What you showed when actual comparisons could be made, is that it cost his followers BIG TIME amounts of money.
It was after that that Brinker added the funds with mostly high yield bonds to jazz up the performance.
Even so, Brinker covers up the actual performance of the Marketimer Fixed Income Fund.
.
FYI about anonymous posts:
If anyone mistakenly sends one, they are completely annihilated even from my trash bin almost immediately.
If it was a mistake, please resend with proper ID inserted.
Folks, please don't underestimate the precipice upon which we stand.
It's a big deal. The western hemisphere could be shaken tomorrow because the one and only "Mr. B" (as we know him) will be pontificating on the radio show as if he were The Pontiff, or at least a good friend of said.
He will be preaching about the "heating up" of the economy and the looming champagne party after the Fed's "pajama party" this week which will end with a "short term federal funds overnight rate increase" which is well overdue, in the pontiff's opinion. And then he will reluctantly takes some calls.
The corks are already popping. Don't miss it.
Westy: I may head out to the local watering hole to watch football, which will end the same hour as Binky comes on, so I will at least miss most of the first hour by the time I get home. Wah wah.
I'll just read Honey's summary that evening. :)
September 27, 2018 4pm ET....just received an email that my money talk on demand subscription has been cancelled. I called their billing company ccbill and they said client (moneytalk on demand) cancelled.
Daryl
I also got an email about an hour ago saying that my MoneyTalk on Demand was cancelled. Is BB starting to shut down his operation - or at least his radio program?
I have subscribed to MT on Demand for many years and my credit card has automatically been billed so nothing should be wrong there.?????
Received the following notice today.
Your subscription with MoneyTalk On Demand has been canceled as of 2018-09-27 and will become inactive on 2018-10-02.
If you have any questions or comments, please contact CCBill by E-mail:
support@ccbill.com or telephone 888-596-9279.
I called CC bill and they said the show had been cancelled thus no more money talk on demand.
I have inquired from BB. No reply as of yet.
Has anyone else had this experience or know whats going on?
Listening to last hour of last live broadcast 9/30/2018 BB thanked listeners and will be focusing on newsletter and other writings. Best of BB will continue for October. what i gather that will be the end. So Long BB
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