Some have asked me if Bob Brinker is still bullish on the stock market or has he issued a sell-signal. The answer is yes and no. Yes, he is still bullish, and no, he has not issued any sell signals on the air or in his "investment letter."
Two days ago on Moneytalk, Bob Brinker talked about how resilient the stock market had been in light of the "political drama in Washington." He harkened back to the year-to-date closing high and said that the S&P 500 Index was only 5% below that.
Since then, it has had two days of large drops, down another 38 points. This is below where it was at the end of 2010, so it has given back all the gains that Brinker had earlier bragged about on Moneytalk.
Sunday, Brinker also made a big hoopla out of telling callers that if they sold stock because of the debt ceiling debate, they might have to face the choice of buying back in at a higher price or staying out altogether. He smugly pointed out that the market was higher than when he'd given that advice.
Well, it isn't now, Bob!!! It's now lower than when you told both of those callers not to sell. Will you be admitting this on the air next week? Will you make a big hoopla about how the callers would be ahead (as of the close of August 2nd) if they had sold instead of hold?
Sunday, Brinker also recommended dollar-cost-averaging and said that he had been buying:
Of course, all of this "buying-opportunity" stuff is pure hyperbole because his Marketimer model portfolios are fully invested and he regularly recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new money. Probably the vast majority of those who actually follow Brinker's advice are fully invested and have ridden the market up and down, at least for the past eight years. So when the market makes gains they are simply re-couping their losses."And certainly we've seen some nice dollar-cost-average opportunities this past week in the market. I must admit on Friday I was taking advantage of some of the bargains that were out there with the market in the 1200's, (the S&P was at 1292) reacting to this hyper-drama out of Washington DC. I know many of you also have been taking advantage of the dollar-cost-averaging opportunities on short-term weakness - and certainly it's minor. I mean, 5% is really noise when you look at the market over time.......If you've been listening to this broadcast, we have not been part of the panic-brigade here on Moneytalk."
A dose of reality: The markets broke key support levels today. The Dow closed at 11, 867; the Nasdaq at 2669; and the S&P at 1254. This was the 8th straight day that the Dow declined. The last time there were this many consecutive down days was in October 2008 when the megabear market actually began..... The S&P is at the same level it was on December 10, 2010.
93 comments:
How can you have a buying opportunity to buy when you are 100% invested?
How can you have a buying opportunity to buy when you are 100% invested?
As someone was kind enough to point out to me when I made the same query, like a lamprey you attach yourself to the wallet of some poor, ignorant slob who believes you can time the market and extract $185 from him, sucking and slurping away year after year, till finally the victim, uh I mean subscriber, has nothing left due to doing things like buying QQQs or going in at S&P500 1450. In the meantime you are up 185 times the number of years till the victim...uh subscriber succumbs.
Multiply that by the number of frightened people you delude via you weekly nationwide radio show into believing you can protect them from a market downturn in spite of the evidence to the contrary and you have the makings of a very lucrative con, uh I mean, business venture, no I was right the first time: con.
tfb
"...frightened people you delude via you weekly nationwide radio show into believing you can protect them from a market downturn in spite of the evidence to the contrary..." tfb
Don't you think you can sidestep a market downturn?
Everybody seems to follow what Dan says and he got out of the market completely yesterday because of unfavorable indicators.
Honeybee herself, says she is mostly in cash because she sees a market downturn on the horizon I guess.
A lot of posters here seem to be sitting on the sidelines. Are they wrong?
"Well, it isn't now, Bob!!! It's now lower than when you told both of those callers not to sell. Will you be admitting this on the air next week? Will you make a big hoopla about how the callers would be ahead (as of the close of August 2nd) if they had sold instead of hold?"
If the market stays down at the end of this week, I suspect we will see Lynn at the helm of the starship. I wouldn't be surprised if a caller gets through and brings up this issue.
anonymous asked: "How can you have a buying opportunity to buy when you are 100% invested?"
It may be one of the most clever scams ever concocted to make money. And he is able to carry it off because of a national radio show where he can control most of what is said.
Another good question might be: How did he get away with telling subscribers to raise 65% cash from model portfolios, then put up to 50% of that 65% into QQQQ (and lose 70%) and never account for the trade in those model portfolios?
To this day, Mark Hulbert uses a footnote to excuse why this trade did not affect Hulbert Financial Digest ranking of Marketimer.
Never mind that Hulbert knows the footnote excuse for why Brinker did not add the trade to his model portfolios is not true.
Then in typical shyster-fashion (he knows the truth), Brinker goes full circle and uses HFD to hawk Marketimer.
Anyone know what Bob said in his August 1 NL?
A lot of posters here seem to be sitting on the sidelines. Are they wrong?
I have no idea.
One problem with Brinker's model is it does not consider tax implications. So even if he gives a sell signal you have to carefully consider the ramifications(which extend beyond taxes), which apparently is something he neglects to mention to people.
I suspect most of the people in this forum are on the diminishing side of their life span and that makes a difference. As a result I suspect Dan is going more for protecting his principle and entering the market during attractive periods. Essentially this would allow him to beat the cash equivalent and t-bill rates with limited risk, what he gives up potentially are those unexpected bursts of upside that characterize most of the stock markets appreciable gains over time. But I am putting words in his mouth and he is more than capable of explaining his strategy. I based my comments on observation.
Stated differently I do not know if Dan's objective is to even equal a market rate of return as much as it is to enhance his return potential while protecting his capital.
Brinker is trying to beat the market, that is potentially very different.
One person who had some success, at least over an extended period in time was Eric Kobren who had a superior risk adjusted return, another strategy that may be beneficial.
tfb
"One problem with Brinker's model is it does not consider tax implications. So even if he gives a sell signal you have to carefully consider the ramifications(which extend beyond taxes), which apparently is something he neglects to mention to people.: tfb
NO timing model can possibly consider tax implications because the tax considerations are unique to each individual investor.
One investor may be in the highest possible tax bracket so each dollar of additional gain would be taxed at the highest possible rate.
While another investor may have a huge tax loss carry-forward and would pay ZERO taxes on any additional gains.
Brinker always advises folks to talk to their own CPAs regarding tax matters and that's the most appropriate advice IMO.
You go on to speculate that Dan is "...entering the market during attractive periods" which would seem to indicate that you DO think market timing can be done, i.e. you enter during attractive periods and presumably exit during "unattractive" periods.
So then if I understand you, market timing IS possible, it's just that Brinker can't do it.
If that's the case, the academics and historical evidence are all wrong.
I suspect most of the people in this forum are on the diminishing side of their life span
I always said that there was one thing that I liked about Brinker.
I wish I could remember it........
"I always said that there was one thing that I liked about Brinker.
I wish I could remember it........"
He doesn't eat pork~
Timing the markets?
Brinker's "all in" GIFT HORSE buy in 2007 with a correction from the top to the mid 1400s is the buy-of-record he should be measured against. I don't recall any other "gift horse" buys in the last 10 years, do you?
I read this elsewhere:
"Below is what Mark Hulbert reported for Bob Brinkers' Fixed Income Model Portfolio Returns
Brinker's fixed income advisor model portfolio #1 lost 21.7% in 2008.
Brinker's fixed income advisor model portfolio #2 lost 11.5% in 2008.
Brinker's fixed income advisor model portfolio #3 lost 5.2% in 2008.
Brinker's fixed income only portfolio in “Marketimer” lost 2.1% in 2008.
All the "Brinkers'" fixed income portfolios lost money in 2008, a year Vanguard's GNMA fund was up 7.22% and Vanguard's Total Bond fund was up 5.24%."
How does a leading market timer lose over 20% in fixed income in an up year for fixed income?
It is debatable if anyone can beat the markets with timing alone but we sure have "unflattering" data on Brinker.
Yesterday, Frankc23 asked me this: "Anyone know if Brinker is still bullish in his August newsletter, or if his S&P500 target is still 1400?"
I replied:
Frankc23,
If you read my summary, you will see what Brinker was saying two days ago. That was July 31st.
Do you really think that he would go into that hyperbolic rant about how he was bullishly buying stock then and change his mind in time to publish something different in Marketimer yesterday.
If you think he would do that, then you should subscribe to his newsletter.
But before you do that, you should know that he has been 100% invested and bullish since March 2003.
The only changes Bob Brinker has made in his target range predictions are SUBTLE time changes.
Each month, he altered the time element so that now he basically has none at all. Note the metamorphosis each month -- AFTER THE MARKET STARTED DROPPING:
Jan: "Mid-to-upper 1300's for this year"
Feb: "1350 to 1400 later this year"
March: "low-to-mid 1400's range within this year"
April: "low-to-mid 1400's range within next 12 months"
May: "low-to-mid 1400's range over the next 12 months"
June "1400's range as part of the ongoing cyclical bull market"
July: "low-to-mid 1400's range going forward"
August: No change....
(That Jr is one clever guy.)
Bob Brinker's 2007 1450 gift horse buy for the S&P500 (now it is at 1250, 200 pts lower!)
All his other "all in" buys after 2007 came after that gift horse buy when he was FULLY INVESTED.
It reminds me of a sandlot baseball team trailing 10 to nothing in the top of the ninth then using the home field advantage to reset the scoreboard to show them in the lead.
"It is debatable if anyone can beat the markets with timing alone..."
That's the question Mork. Do YOU think market timing is possible?
Or are the academics and other "experts" like Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett right when they say market timing's a fool's game?
So is market timing the way to go but just avoid Brinker?
Can you name me just a couple of successful market timers who consistently beat the averages on a yearly basis?
Mork said: "Bob Brinker's 2007 1450 gift horse buy for the S&P500 (now it is at 1250, 200 pts lower!)"
Hi Mork,
I don't know where you got that 1250 number, but the only buy-level that Bob Brinker has been taking credit for since the megabear ate half of his model portfolios is the last one from July 1, 2010, which was at S&P 1030.
But you are absolutely correct that the only one that he should harken back to is the one he gave from August 2007 to January 2008 (mid-1400's) as the market topped!
He has never mentioned it and he never mentions that in 2008, he lowered those buy-levels as the market dropped.
anonymous asked: "Can you name me just a couple of successful market timers who consistently beat the averages on a yearly basis?"
I don't know about Mork, but are you aware of what Mark Hulbert wrote about it?
From my June, 2011 article:
In the June 2011 issue of Hulbert Financial Digest, Mark Hulbert writes about how well market-timers weathered "the worst bear market since the Great Depression." He does not make any excuses for them or blame any exogenous events. He deals with hard, cold data.
Hulbert lays it out in plain English:
"There is at least one silver lining to the extraordinary swings in the stock market over the last 3½ years: They create the perfect testing environment for stock market timers. After all, this period encompasses the worst bear market since the Great Depression and one of the most impressive subsequent recoveries. If a market timer wasn’t able to sidestep much of that bear market’s carnage, and then able to participate in much of the bull market’s recovery, then serious questions can be asked about why we should even consider following his advice in the future."
Hulbert continued to write that he had calculated how many market-timing strategies were able to weather the past 3 1/2 year carnage if he relaxed standards to within one month of the top and bottom, rather than using a more unrealistic true top and bottom.
Unfortunately, Hulbert found that only 10 out of 160 newsletters were able to meet even "very modest expectations" by correctly side-stepping the mega-bear and then benefiting from the recovery."
Hulberts Financial Digest and Bob Brinker's Market Timing
Honeybee, until you change the name of your blog to "Honey's OTHER PEOPLE Beehive Buzz" I will ignore comments from trolls trying to change the subject.
"Hi Mork, I don't know where you got that 1250 number,"
CNBC said that was what the S&P500 was on the TV screen while I was typing.
"... but the only buy-level that Bob Brinker has been taking credit for since the megabear ate half of his model portfolios is the last one from July 1, 2010, which was at S&P 1030. "
How much you want to bet that if you ask for a sample snoozeletter, he sends you the issue with that declaration in it? Someone who hasn't read this great blog might believe he actually had portfolio money to invest there and pay him for his excellent timing call.
Double or nothing that he doesn't send the MarketMIStimer showing he was fully invested in the 600s AND he took the buy the dips with "new money" off as he was more bearish (scared to buy) at 666 than at 1450!.... Otherwise, he'd probably brag about that rather than 1030.
"Unfortunately, Hulbert found that only 10 out of 160 newsletters were able to meet even "very modest expectations" by correctly side-stepping the mega-bear and then benefiting from the recovery."
Were all those 160 newsletters "market timing newsletters"?
I can't believe there are that many newsletters who actually advocate market timing, and if they are NOT market timers, isn't it ridiculous of Hulbert to measure their market timing ability?
Apples and oranges I think.
Many newsletters say market timing is a fool's game so why should they be included in Hulbert's little study? If that is the case.
And why doesn't Hulbert name the "winners" of his little contest?
B. Atene
Today is probably a one day reversal and not enough to stop the correction.
Much damage has been done and it will take more than just a reversal day to reverse that entire correction...at least in my opinion. But it could spark a short rally and give traders an opportunity to go short in the area of the H&S neckline.
Much of capital gains are due to inflation which is caused by governments devaluing currency... To me, it seems another way to steal wealth from the productive.
If anything, maybe a capital gains tax on gains in excess of inflation. Otherwise, you simply give the government incentive to create inflation to fund itself stealing from the productive.
Does that make sense?
Dear friends,
There has been lots of great stuff posted here today, but much of it without a handle attached to it. :(
There has been lots of great stuff posted here today, but much of it without a handle attached to it. :(
Almost all of it was by me. I just didn't want to take credit for being so smart and having such a big smart brain.
If Pig is too shy to take credit, I will for having a "big, smart
(bird)brain."
Just returned from Vegas. The Rio sportsbook has Lynn as a better than two to one favorite (-220) to host Moneytalk on Sunday instead of the occasional Mr B. (+160)
Should the stock market continue its slide, the price on Ms Jimenez will climb. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
Frankc23 asked: "Anyone know what Bob said in his August 1 NL?"
Yes, I do, but I pay for a subscription -- for informational purposes only. Not because it's worth a plugged nickel.
This is the second time you've asked. What is it you want to know? Is it the latest update on Federal Reserve Policy? Is it the latest leading indicators? Is it the latest "retails sales" report? Manufacturing? CPI? Core inflation? Wells Fargo Housing Index?
He's told you his market-timing views on the radio show and I have documented it here.
BirdBrain - did you leave the Rio and head to the strip? If so did you cab it or walk? I am just curious if the area around the Rio is still kind of rough.
tfb
birdbrain said:
Just returned from Vegas. The Rio sportsbook has Lynn as a better than two to one favorite (-220) to host Moneytalk on Sunday instead of the occasional Mr B. (+160)
Should the stock market continue its slide, the price on Ms Jimenez will climb. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
It's always fun to speculate about whether or not Brinker will host his own program on Sunday. I will go out on a limb and say that if the S&P finishes the week above 1270 Brinker will do the program. It seems to me like he usually does Moneytalk the Sunday after the non-farm payroll report is released because I frequently hear him talk about it. I know Honey tracks when he is and isn't on so maybe she can look this up to see if I'm correct or "all wet".
Jim,
Your wish is my command.
Here are the dates that Bob Brinker has been on since he first dropped to Sundays-only broadcasts in June 2010:
2010:
June 6th: Bob Brinker
June 13th: Neale Godfrey
June 20th: Bob Brinker
June 27th: Bob Brinker
July 4th: Lynn Jimenez
July 11th: Bob Brinker
July 18th: Bob Brinker
July 25th: Lynn Jimenez
August 1st: Bob Brinker
August 8th: Bob Brinker
August 15th: Lynn Jimenez
August 22nd: Bob Brinker
August 29th: Bob Brinker
September 5th: Lynn Jimenez
September 12th: Bob Brinker
September 19th: Bob Brinker
September 26th: Bob Brinker
October 3rd: Bob Brinker
October 10th: Bob Brinker
October 17th: Lynn Jimenez
October 24th: Bob Brinker
October 31st: Bob Brinker
November 7th: Bob Brinker
November 14th: Bob Brinker
November 21st: Bob Brinker
November 28th: Lynn Jimenez
December 5th: Bob Brinker
December 12th: Bob Brinker
December 19th: Bob Brinker
December 26th: Spliced together re-run questions from prior programs (there was no announcement that it was not a live show -- don't call.)
These are the Sundays in 2011 that Brinker took off and had a guest-host replacement:
* January 2, 2011: Neale Godfrey
* February 6, 2011: Two hour program - third hour unannounced re-runs
* February 13, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
* March 6, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
* April 10, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
* May 29, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
* June 12, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
* July 3, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
Thanks Honey,
It appears Brinker has skipped doing Moneytalk 4 times on the non-farm payroll week during that stretch. The two weekends in 2010 were both holiday weekends so I'm OK there, but the remaining two were consecutive months(March 6 and April 10) in 2011(both non-holiday weekends)so that blows my theory.
So if the S&P would finish the week below 1270 he might very well take the Sunday off given his prognostication on last weeks program.
Bulletin: S&P 500 index falls into 'correction' territory
Dan and HB get the timer award today. The rest of you suck.
Hi Investor,
You are very welcome, glad you found this blog where we keep track of "America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor" (or so Bob Brinker calls himself).
Three days ago, he said that the market decline was only 5% and was just "noise" and bragged about advising dollar-cost-averaging.
Well right now, Wednesday morning, the S&P 500 Index is down 10% from the high for this year.
That makes it, by Brinker's own standards, a bonafide correction. As in 2008, he is recommending keeping all stock market money fully allocated.
Now we know that his definition of a bear market is a decline in excess of 20%. We do not know if that will happen, but if it does, it will be the second bear market his "stock market timing model" has missed in four years.
I have to say that I greatly appreciate Mr. Pig and Mr. Birdbrain's wonderful humor.
Looks like we have an "anonymous" who also has a great sense of humor. He said: "Dan and HB get the timer award today. The rest of you suck."
And I say: ROFLOL!!!! Who are you, humor man?
"Now we know that his definition of a bear market is a decline in excess of 20%. We do not know if that will happen, but if it does, it will be the second bear market his "stock market timing model" has missed in four years."
But you are assuming that Brinker will not give an honest to goodness all out sell signal BEFORE a 20% decline!
Of course he doesn't sell into weakness so we got a problem there.
Oh well if you stay on the sidelines OR remain fully invested you will eventually be right I guess.
anonymous said: "Of course he doesn't sell into weakness so we got a problem there.
Oh well if you stay on the sidelines OR remain fully invested you will eventually be right I guess."
Right, he does not sell into weakness. So basically, he is a buy-and-hoper.
And yes, he remained fully invested in 2008-2009 and simply STOPPED talking about the stock market. (It's all documented on my blogs.)
Then after blowing five bottom calls, the market finally turned up and he issued a new buy-level at 1030 and has been bragging about being right for over a year now.
It's a dirty game, in my opinion. But a very clever one that works for one reason only: a national radio show!
"Then after blowing five bottom calls..."
But he SAID that really didn't matter because he had been fully invested anyway.
It doesn't count on his record so who really cares?
And he always said if you are going to make predictions...make a lot of them.
One way that usually works is to be sure you are signed up to Google before coming here. Then be sure to keep a copy of your post, and do a "Preview" first. If you get bounced, come right back and paste in your comment again and Publish. That usually works.
In any case, it's an awfully weak market that doesn't even allow a bounce for bears to put out shorts. So it's best to just hang on to cash until there is some kind of rally.
The H&S projects a minimum low in the Dow of about 11,000. But the key word is "MINIMUM", so don't go hog wild if we get there. If this is a true bear market (I'm not totally convinced of that just yet), there's a lot more to go even after that. But watch for a rally attempt followed by a "follow-through" day (huge rise on huge volume following that rally attempt in a time window of approximately 4-7 days following the first day of the rally).
the brinker indicator is on target he says buy you must sell !!! If he even shows up for work sunday get ready for the baseball show or the energy show anything but the market show. TRUSTED ADVISER MY A>>>>s I bid $89995. on the condo do I hear $79? Looks like the snow is melting on mt. brinkmore
Note to Bob Brinker:
"Ground Zero" wrote: "....you should NEVER fall in love with any trade, if it doesn't do exactly what you expect it to do, then cut it quickly... you know what they say, a bottom a day will find the right bottom some day..."
Dan, you are a very good observer of how the market works!! I agree completely!!
William J. O'Neil
How's this for a sense of humor?
I'm sure glad I replaced my boring bonds with a stock fund in my fixed income portfolio.
I wonder how that hope and change is workin out?
This market is awesome. I love the smell of Presidential despair in the air.
Let's hope this idiot is a one termer. And by the way this is what happens when you pass a raise in a debt ceiling without making spending cuts and at the same time reveal new punitive health care mandates for businesses. Socialism at its best.
Yum, getting toward the time to cherry pick some assets...
tfb
It seems anytime Bob Brinker feels bold enough to go on the radio and bash the bears as he did Sunday, the market then goes against him. And then he never comes out and says he made a mistake.
"I'm sure glad I replaced my boring bonds with a stock fund in my fixed income portfolio."
I sold ALL my bonds that weren't indexed to inflation and then I sold those too for a tiny short term profit.
But then I'm supposed to lose money because I'm not a market timer.
"Dan, you are a very good observer of how the market works!! I agree completely!!
William J. O'Neil"
Well gee, thanks "Bill"! If you ever need more advice, you can subscribe to DBD (Dan's Business Daily) for "only" $300 per year! :)
What is sort of interesting is, if I recall correctly, is that Brinker use to go back and rework his model and then retro test it to makes sure it picked up past errors and at least hinted he made a mistake and then altered his model to correct it. After the last debacle he just wrote it off as being an extraordinary event and did not even pretend to tweak his model or add a new subjective factor...
It should be interesting to see how he attempts to brush this off.
tfb
"It should be interesting to see how he attempts to brush this off."
tfb
He won't even try. This is a corection and he's said many times that he doesn't care about corrections.
Only bear markets bother Bob. And he ignores those too.
TFB states, with tongue firmly planted in cheek, it appears, It should be interesting to see how he (Brinker) attempts to brush this off.
May I take a whack at this?
1. Exogenous event (i.e. he has no clue)
2. Solar flares and the drought in Texas.
3. Real Estate values in Lake Las Vegas
4. Junior did not wake him up from a drunken stupor.
5. He won't even try, and in another 11 days until he shows up for work NEXT weekend , NOONE will care or remember.
I wonder if we're headed for another Bob Brinker downward spiral?
1. Buy recommendation.
2. Market goes down.
3. Repeat until broke.
We'll know that we've hit bottom when he's baffled, like in March 2009.
StoxNBondz
Hi StoxNBonds,
You have a good recall of Bob Brinker's track record. :)
As Mr.Pig said, Brinker can always fall back on that ever-ready bunny (not to be confused with our own cute fluffy one), his "exogenous event."
Brinker has spent over a year having guests on to discuss every detail of the 2008-2009 meltdown. I think his point is fairly obvious, but I have often wondered if he was trying to convince himself.
Mark Hulbert wrote a good column (a rarity) and says that the market did not reach a bottom today.
"Bottoms rarely look like Thursday’s rout: Panics typically are followed by more losses"
Read more:
Marketwatch.com
It's time to vote the Tea Party out of office. These newby radical conservative advocates are responsible for the debt ceiling debacle as well as the FAA shutdown. Even the old guard Republicans would never have the gall to do what the new Republican controlled Congress has been doing. The stock market may teach these folks a thing or two along the way.
7:40 west coast time:
Mark Hulbert was on CNBC talking about his latest column that I linked to above.
He sounds like he's become a market-timer. He doesn't think the bottom is in.
As an example, he cited the November 2008 sell-off that many thought was the bottom, but it didn't actually arrive until March 2009.
Looks like DanG's "dead cat bounce" actually took place this morning.
The Dow shot up 170 points and promptly came back down.
I can imagine, Bob Brinker getting up this morning and seeing that bounce and emitting a huge sigh of relief, but as he drinks his morning tea, watching it disappear in horror as the phones start to ring in Littleton, Colorado..... :)
The question is, where do we go from here.
HB said: "I can imagine, Bob Brinker getting up this morning and seeing that bounce and emitting a huge sigh of relief, but as he drinks his morning tea, watching it disappear in horror..."
And about now Bob may be adding something a big stronger than tea to his cup! And probably wondering why he went and put his big foot in his mouth on MoneyTalk!
Ya kinda got to feel a little sorry for him. But only kinda!
LOL! Yes, Dan, I can feel his pain. I would just like for him to be HONEST about it and we would all respect him so much more. Instead, he will probably just clam up.
I think we all feel the pain of what is going on in the financial/economic world now. And I think many are downright alarmed....
"I think many are downright alarmed...."
And they have good reason to be alarmed. The dufuses in Washington are so incompetent and arrogant!
They let a little ego trip involving a disagreement about a small matter in FHA funding suck $300,000,000 in airline taxes out of their coffers, and that is irretrievably lost now! What the h... are they thinking? Or ARE they?
Time for about 535 recalls! Get the bums out of there!
SivBum here,
It will be an interesting program if BB will not go AWOL.
I think we all feel the pain of what is going on in the financial/economic world now. And I think many are downright alarmed....
Bee, (all)...this is the best news EVER. This decline MAY be the singular event that defeated socialism on our shore. It needs to drag out longer and play out over the rest of the summer and then into the early fall. Another 8-12 down would be nice. think about this, getting rid of Obama is on par with getting rid of Bin Laden, Hitler, or defeating Japan. Each posed a credible thereat to our nation and our children's future, and I think you can argue that Obama poses the greatest threat to our freedom. Our Founding fathers taught us that a life without liberty is not truly living. This is a financial war we are now waging. We need to drive this economy to its knees and hang the albatross around Obama.s neck.
that post about the albatross was by tfb
Hi SivBum
It's good to hear from you!
Yes, it will be interesting when Moneytalk begins on Sunday, to see if we hear the velvet smooth masculine voice, or the hyper-excited feminine voice. :)
I hesitate to make a prediction because I was so wrong last week....
charles waldman has left a new comment on your post "Bob Brinker Makes 1am Radio Guest Appearance":
If Bob is true to form he will attempt to avoid talking about the
market slide. He screens all of his calls and talks only to the
most sycophantic listeners. Bob
supported the invasion of Iraq,
never served in the military, is
a big proponent of nuclear energy
and denies the collosal squandering
of energy in the US. He does not
have an open mind to suggestions outside his thought parameters. It is unfortunate because he has a vast knowledge
of many things financial.
TFB,
I agree, but I sure hate that so much pain has to be suffered by so many innocent people.
Note to Politicalidiot,
You posted on this thread a couple of weeks ago and I missed it:
politicalidiot said...
Great site Honeybee, I've been logging in for years, I just have never posted a thanks. Except for John Bogle, I think everyone who claims to know anything about finance and money are morons. Calling Brinker to the mat every week is brilliant. Thanks!!!! and keep up the great work."
Thank you for your comments - I agree.
I hope you are still "logging in." :)
Well, it's official.
S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating
By Charles Riley @CNNMoney August 5, 2011: 9:25 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the credit rating of the United States, stripping the world's largest economy of its prized AAA status.
In July, S&P placed the United States' rating on "CreditWatch with negative implications" as the debt ceiling debate devolved into partisan bickering."
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TFB,
Somehow I missed one of your great posts that you made on a prior thread....I know, I know, it's a surprise that I'm not perfect. :)
You wrote this here:
"Well let's see. Da Brinks own son spends how many 10s of thousands of dollars pursuing an education in IT, which Da Brink repeatedly crowed had such a a great future, only to see Binkey's future go to cheap off shore labor markets via globalization. So in the end, the educational process that Da Brink touts so highly as a cure all could not help his kid who now imps his dad and pimps out a newsletter to people whose brains are ravaged by the unfortunate effects of the aging process.
tfb
Right on the mark, and perfectly said, but there might be some that are not older, just naive or uneducated. :)
Also, it's a lead pipe cinch that Bobbyjr did not pay for his own education. Daddy makes it clear that paying for the "young sprouts" education is the duty of parents and the government -- not necessarily in that order.
He has never once mentioned scholarships or "young sprouts" actually working to help pay for their own education.
Bet on it..."daBrink" has paid the full freight for all of his "kids." And probably the "young grand sprouts" now or very, very soon.
Honey said:
Well, it's official.
S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating
Well, there is the "exogenous event". If we slip into a bear market now, Brinker can claim this as the reason.
Yep, Jim....Indeed he can use that, but "someone" on this blog may remind him that more than once he has said on Moneytalk that there was at least a 50% chance that S&P would do the downgrade. :)
I agree, but I sure hate that so much pain has to be suffered by so many innocent people.
Honey, every single generation has to win their freedom anew. Each and every generation.
Government is a beast that is genetically programmed to devour individual freedom and personal liberty. I know this is not a political or Constitutional forum so I will not delve into the details, but understand our Founders understood not only the nature of men but the natural course of Government.
When you hear politicians saying things like never letting a crisis go to waste, in order to advance their agenda you know a precipice has been reached and those in power no longer put their country first or the citizenry, the put their acquisition of power and authority first.
This is now a multi-generational war that msut be waged against the welfare state, the size and scope of the social safety net and we must beat back the Federal Government to its proper confines.
I have not felt this enthused in over a decade. Right now the hour is upon us, we must call for austerity measures, reduction in the size of out federal government and smut resist expansion at the state, county and city level.
This is the hour and time for the war for liberty and personal freedom to begin, and with that freedom comes the risk of persona failure. We must fight this war to insure freedom for another generation, and they in turn will have to fight the battle yet again. the threat to freedom will always be there as long as there is Government, the battle will be eternal and our enemy is unrelenting. But they cannot win unless we let them. the price of our freedom is eternal vigilance, as our Founding fathers told us.
tfb
Somehow I missed one of your great posts
I like the word great being used in conjunction with my name : )
the cuddly rodent
Got to love Brinker - worse week in years and Brinker was recommending buying last week.
Now the interesting bit will be all the pension funds and mutual funds that will have to sell because they can only hold triple A debt.
Joey
Now China has weighed in:
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China roundly condemned the United States for its "debt addiction" and "short sighted" political wrangling and said the world needed a new stable global reserve currency.
In a harshly-worded commentary by the official Xinhua news agency on Saturday, China gave its first official comments on the United States losing its gilded AAA long-term credit rating from Standard & Poor's.
"China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," Xinhua said.
China also urged the United States to apply "common sense" to "cure its addiction to debts" by cutting military and social welfare expenditure.
"The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," Xinhua wrote.
China also said further credit downgrades would very likely undermine the world economic recovery and trigger fresh rounds of financial turmoil."
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TFB,
You are always great in my book. :)
Joey said: "Got to love Brinker - worse week in years and Brinker was recommending buying last week.
Now the interesting bit will be all the pension funds and mutual funds that will have to sell because they can only hold triple A debt."
Hi Joey,
Yes, it would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. How many trusting Bob Brinker fans heard him say that on Sunday and bought stock early Monday morning?
This blog is popular, but I reach an infinitesimal number of people compared to his millions of listeners.
So the vast majority who heard him, are not aware that he had to be talking about his personal finances (probably much of it contributed by subscribers) because his Marketimer model portfolios have been fully invested for eight years.
Before Bob Brinker sold his fee-based money management company, BJ Group, Charles Schwab handled his accounts (for BJ Group).
Now he only touts Vanguard Group and Fidelity. But Charles Schwab is offering free trading for their in-house ETF's and undercutting Vanguard and Fidelity's fees:
Tom Lydon wrote:
SCHWAB COMPETE FOR MORE ETF MARKET SHARE
Charles Schwab has jump-started its exchange traded fund business by offering commission-free trading to clients, and is now attempting to outsmart the competition by trimming down expense ratios. Thus far, the tactic has attracted investors, but the challenge to gain more market share lies ahead.
Schwab (SCHW) was the first ETF provider to offer commission-free trades to investors that used its in-house brokerage accounts. In November 2009, the competition began with four equity ETFs launched under the Schwab name, reports Marla Brill for Financial Advisor. By May the provider had $4.4 billion in assets, up from $1.2 billion one year earlier, according to the National Stock Exchange.
“Advisors often take a wait-and-see attitude before they move in,”says Tamra Bohlig, vice president of product management at Schwab. “But we think the combination of low expense ratios and commission-free trades are going to resonate with a lot of them.”
Schwab has set the bar for offering the lowest possible expense ratios available to investors. For instance, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), once known as the lowest-cost provider, was undercut by the Schwab US Broad Market ETF (SCHB) by one basis point.
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Is there a Vegas betting line on BB? Like:
1) betting on when he will not be on the program.
2) betting if he will take a call on the market.
-- Frankj
HB said, "Marketimer model portfolios have been fully invested for eight years."
And there's really nothing wrong with that...UNLESS you bill yourself as a market timer! Then you should hang your head in shame!
DanG said: "And there's really nothing wrong with that...UNLESS you bill yourself as a market timer! Then you should hang your head in shame!"
Dan,
Absolutely! I should make that more clear.
I know that in the past you helped put together Bob Brinker's asset allocation history back to the late 1980's, so you are will aware that in all that time, he has made very few changes to his stock allocations in his model portfolios.
For those who may not know, the reason I refer to the model portfolios is because Brinker uses them as his "official" performance record.
Additionally, Mark Hulbert uses an average of them to rank Marketimer performance.
This creates a complete circle because then Brinker uses Hulbert Financial Digest to promote his model portfolios.
All the while that this is going on, Brinker's schtick is that he is "market-timing."
On the surface, it may appear to be ridiculous, but what does he care? As he says: "It's all about the money."
FrankJ,
I'd like to place my bets:
IF Bob Brinker is on tomorrow, he will instruct the call screener that the stock market is off-limits to the callers and especially anyone name John, Mark or Birdbrain. :)
IF Bob Brinker is on tomorrow, he will relentlessly hammer the Tea Party for TRYING (and mostly failing) to cut government spending.
Ms Honey states:IF Bob Brinker is on tomorrow, he will relentlessly hammer the Tea Party for TRYING (and mostly failing) to cut government spending.
I disagree (most humbly, if I may) and think he'll attack Geithner, and throw the poor fella under the bus, along with the phony, named Obama.
He can see the writing on the wall (barely at his age) and he knows when to shift and salvage what credibility he has left. (very little)
He couldn't care less about Geithner, but newsletter sales are going to skyrocket this week if he can promise "HOPE AND CHANGE".
Sound familiar?
Sorry to be so pessimistic..........but I'm only an ignorant PIG, ya know.
Years back, when it was still legal for those selling financial products to post under an anonymous alias, Bob Brinker was a regular poster at Silicon Investor.
He originally used the ID, "donlane," but that was later changed to "mister topes" - perhaps to make searches a bit more difficult.
A few years ago, I saved all of his writing to disk, so even if they all disappear from Silicon Investor, I have copies. Why? Because what a man says when he thinks he's anonymous is a real window into his character.
With the current market situation, I thought you might enjoy reading what he has to say about his views on bear markets. He's often angry with other posters -- that's just par for the course (pun intended).
Bob Brinker wrote:
From: mister topes of 42823
Your remarks are absurd. If Brinker said what you paraphrased it is
obvious what was being said. If his timing model gives a bear market
sell signal then the market goes down 20% or even more....that is
how he has defined a bear market. If no signal occurs, the bull
remains intact and prices move higher and higher until something
in the model changes. There is no ambiguity in this position
whatsoever. What is your problem. Can't you understand the
English language? He has never ever said the market will either
drop 20% or rise 20%. Why would he say such a stupid thing.
It makes no sense. He is not a total fool as you portray him.
Get real!"
Silicon Investor
Mr. Pig said: "Sorry to be so pessimistic..........but I'm only an ignorant PIG, ya know."
Mr. Pig,
Now it is my turn to humbly disagree with you. You are not an "ignorant PIG." You are a wise....errrr.... PIG.
LOL!
Frankj:
I offer these safety suggestions to my friends here, who anticipate listening to MoneyTalk tomorrow. These apply if BB hosts, and you need to be on guard esp. in the first 15-20 minutes.
1. Don't drive. You may swerve off the road if BB mentions the market.
2. Don't slurp hot soup or any hot beverage. You may snort it out your nose, if the market gets a mention.
3. Don't operate power tools, whittle, knit, slice vegetables or otherwise handle sharp objects. You may inadvertently stab or cut yourself if the market drop is mentioned.
4. Don't be caught up on a roof or on a ladder during the first 20 minutes. You may lose concentration and fall off if the market is mentioned.
5. Don't have your mouth full of food, unless someone is standing by, trained in the Heimlich maneuver, you may choke if the market is mentioned.
I think he WILL host and I think he WILL talk about the market. That's my bet.
FrankJ,
LOL! Thank you for sounding the alarm!
I hereby dub you Will Robinson's "Lost in Space" robot who always warned, "Danger, Will Robinson."
You are saying, "Beware of the Spaceship Moneytalk on Sunday." :)
To be very honest guys I think it is hard for any of us to guess what Brinker will do becasue in order to step in the mind of a con criminal you need to be one, and I just don't think anyone of us are wired that way. To do what Da Brink does you have to be willing to deliberately deceive little old ladies, those suffering form early stages of dementia and the ignorant and the stupid. You also have to be willing to discard a lareg body of academic evidence to the contrary and arrogant ot not even post a hypothesis to the contrary.
I just can't imagine Pig, Dan, Honey, Frank or the others like that. So why even think you can get into the mind of a common con criminal? You should be proud of the fact you have no idea what this Brinker will do.
Then again Paper Moon, The Sting, the Music Man were very popular movies, so maybe we have an innate fascination with con men.
tfb
Da Brink said:
He is not a total fool as you portray him.
That would be true, his subscribers are the fools.
Btw I was in my garden today and when I turned over a stone a centipede ran to the north, clearly that means that the market will open lower on Monday.
I know what you are thinking, did I check the phase of the moon? Why yes I did and the moon indicator is a contrary indicator, but since the Irises were blooming they reversed the contrary indicator in favor of the centipede indicator.
However I am sad to report that Japanese beetles have defoliated my fall raspberries, and becasue of this exogenous event I may not be able to correctly factor the fall market moves. But who could have foreseen Japanese Beetles?
tfb
Being a Robot would not be all that bad.
No money worries.
Live a long time -- who cares what happens to Medicare?
Don't have to figure out which dope to vote for.
When did a robot ever ask "where's the men's room?"
-- Frankj
TFB,
I see that you read Bob Brinker's "mister topes" post... Speaking of cons, when Jr used to post before he started his newsletter in 2006, he was careful not to be mistaken for his father.
Now he always posts at his website and Twitter as "Bob Brinker."
I suppose it's possible the Brinker's don't know about it, but the Arlington Library describes the Fixed Income Advisor as being published by Bob Brinker, the host of Moneytalk.
THIS WAS POSTED TO JR:
To: Bob Brinker, Jr. who wrote 7/23/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Gary M. Reed of 42823
Bob, Just curious, and if I'm being too personal, please excuse me. Couldn't help but wonder if you've ever considered following in your dad's footsteps in the financial advice world, either as a broker, mutual fund mgr, or as a columnist/journalist covering financial items.
I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, but if you got into the brokerage field, you'd be a natural. I'm sure you'd create a bidding war between brokerages to obtain your services. If my dad had the clout and reputation of yours, I'd be the biggest producer in all of Louisiana! As luck would have it, my dad was a machinist at a factory in Nebraska, not a nationally-renowed financial advisor--such is the luck of the draw when it comes to birthrights :). I'm not trying to be condescending, just curious. You'd be a huge producer--no doubt.
Of course, the flip side is, since you're in the computer industry, maybe you'll develop a software package and take your company public at some huge multiple, as we've seen numerous times before, making you a gazillion-aire through stock and stock options. Maybe I just answered my own question. Looking back, I wished I'd taken up computer science too--seems like that is where the big bucks are right now."
THIS WAS THE REPLY:
To: Gary M. Reed who wrote (994)7/24/1997 1:01:00 AM
From: Bob Brinker, Jr. of 42823
Quite frankly, it never occured to me to go into the financial sector. I was extremely fortunate as a kid to be able to play around with computer and I was hooked as a young teenager. I remeber purchasing basic programming books & typing the programs into our brand new TI99/4a computer. I would save the programs by recording them onto a cassette recorder. Those where the days...we've come a long way. A few hours of typing in program lines, days of debugging typo-s (no debuggers back than, it either worked or it didn't!), and I might see a few characters jump across the black & white tv i had plugged in. It was a strange time.
Anyway, in college I was immediately hooked on Mgmt. Info. Systems and have never looked back. Now, with a Master's degree in the field and a few years of development/proj. mgmt experience I am doing just fine. I am perfectly happy (as many of us in the thread are) with getting my financial rewards through my own personal investing. But who knows what the future holds???? (of course I am always accepting offers if some company really wants to pay me mega-bucks as a mutual fund mgr. That seems like a great job! I would, of course, build a fund around high tech internet companies that are on the b-leading edge)."
Well, you could be Robby, the Robot from Forbidden Planet (I love that movie even though it's corny).
Wiki_Robby the Robot
Looks like they never had a name for the Lost in Space robot, but he was quite sophisticated for his time. :)
Wiki_Lost in Space
Wall Street Journal: Dow Theory Confirms Sell Signal
By STEVEN RUSSOLILLO
If there were any doubts that stocks have entered corrective mode, the "Dow Theory" is now telling us the market is heading down.
The century-old Dow Theory, a way to analyze market trends and turning points, says both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average need to move in tandem to confirm the trend. On Tuesday, the Dow Theory officially gave a sell signal, as Dow industrials and Dow transports broke decisively through June lows, with the Dow transportation index hitting a 2011 low.
The selling comes as worries about the global economy have rippled through financial markets in recent weeks amid signs of further weakening.
The symbiotic relationship between the two indexes is a clear sign to Dow theorists that the economic message and the market outlook are moving in tandem. The idea is that making goods is one leg of the industrial economy and moving those goods around is the second leg, so their trends should be in sync.
Phil Roth, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co., said in a Wednesday note that Dow theorists pointed to several divergent actions early last month. For example, the Dow transports hit an all-time high in early July, but the industrials weren't able to follow suit.
The actions were early indicators that the market's uptrend was due for a reversal, which consequently has taken place over the past few weeks. "A sell signal has been confirmed," Mr. Roth said."
(SNIP)
For now, market technicians are adjusting their models to reflect the stock-market's swoon.
"New short-term oversold extremes mean probabilities are increasing for a short-term rebound, but a rebound is probably a reflex affair in a medium-term trend that just turned down," Mr. Roth said.
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(If you get the truncated version, just enter the title into search and it will give you the full version.)
Well, hearing is believing. America's most respected financial expert gives himself a bye.
I guess I'll have to get back up on the ladder!
-- Frankj
Hi Honeybee/All, As I type this, the Dow is down over 500 points and more than 2,000 off of the 52 week high! Just found your site and am very appreciative of it. I listened to Bob and subscribed to the newsletter back in the mid 90s, and talked with Kurt Lindstrom at Suite 101 back when he did this. I made a lot of money sticking with Indexs based on Bob's advice. However I lost on some recommendations. Don't know if any of you remember Ultratech Stepper. I got killed on that one. Just remember that Bob is human and so is the timing model used to make predictions. My concern is that it doesn't place enough emphasis on politics and obvious desire for administrations to destroy the dollar in an effort to globalize government. At this point, I don't see any smart moves other than commodities which hedges against EVERYTHING else when a complete global economic meltdown occurs. That said, I do think there will be MANY short-term opportunities to get in and out making some fast cash before everyone accepts the obvious. For that, Brinker can bring some insight on when those opportunities exist based on economic indicators...as long as everyone remembers, they will be short lived. There will be no more long-term bull markets like we saw in the 90s. Anyway, I do look forward to watching the commentary here and participating in the discussions. SJW
Hi SJW,
I copied your great post over to the latest thread so it won't be missed.
It is here
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