.Several people have sent emails and others have posted comments saying that they no longer subscribe to Bob Brinker's Marketimer but that they had received an email from Marketimer stating that Bob Brinker had issued a special bulletin on August 9th.
Some of those people said that they haven't subscribed for several years and they wondered why Bob Brinker had sent an email about a special bulletin now? That's a very good question. Why would he notify former subscribers?
And why would Bob Brinker bother sending his subscribers a special bulletin for no apparent reason? We know he considers radio listeners "freeloaders" (he has said so) but what about subscribers? Why treat them so contemptuously?
Let's look at Brinker's latest Moneytalk stock market-timing prognostications and see if we can find a clue. On July 31st (when Brinker was last on the show), he said this:
"Remember we had a caller when the market was at 1268 at the end of June who asked whether he should sell out of the market because of the debt ceiling debate......Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level.......And certainly we've seen some nice dollar-cost-average opportunities this past week in the market. I must admit on Friday I was taking advantage of some of the bargains that were out there with the market ............I know many of you also have been taking advantage of the dollar-cost-averaging opportunities on short-term weakness - and certainly it's minor. I mean, 5% is really noise when you look at the market over time.......If you've been listening to this broadcast, we have not been part of the panic-brigade here on Moneytalk."
The S&P 500 Index has been down as much as 18% from the year-to-date high (1363.61 on April 29th). (Brinker likes to hearken back to the year-to-date numbers on Moneytalk.) However, in the past couple of days there has been some recovery, so the S&P is now down "only" about 15% from the high of the year.
But in the past two weeks, the stock market has been on a frightening roller-coaster ride. As of now, the S&P 500 Index is down 8.78% from the day that Brinker said he had been buying bargains and had bragged about his listeners also "taking advantage" of the (at that time) 5% dip.
So rather than giving you my conclusions, let me just ask some questions:
* How embarrassed is Brinker that the market dropped another 10% almost immediately after he bragged that he had advised callers not to sell, and said he was "buying bargains"?
* How many listeners and subscribers bought stocks first thing Monday morning after Brinker recommended it on Sunday and have lost at least 10% of their money?
* Was there a rash of Marketimer cancellations when the market started dropping drastically?
* Was this bulletin fabricated as a "tough cheese" message to subscribers who were bugging him for reassurance and advice or for some other reason?
* Was this an opportunity to entice former subscribers to log in, and out of fear and anxiety, subscribe just to read this "bulletin"?
29 comments:
Note to the anonymous who has sent two comments about the bulletin.
If you want that published here, you are going to have to send me a copy of it that proves what you are saying is true.
I was a subscriber long ago (1998 or so) and did not receive this e-mail because I have since changed my e-mail address. Thankfully I no longer receive Brinker's junk mail solicitations. :)
Also, I thankfully never sold the GNMA's that I originally started buying in 1997 and have accumulated mid 6 figures worth since then. I have a big "WATERMELON GRIN" as they are now at all time highs!
I believe Brinker got mostly out of them in late 2010, or early 2011.
Boy he couldn't find his butt with two hands!
Example via email to me:
Honeybee,
I noticed on my email that Bob came out with an 'alert' on Tuesday. I haven't subscribed to Bob's newsletter for a few years so I cannot access and find out what the alert was. I suspected it was a buy signal. Do you know what it was? DXXX
It will be interesting to hear what America's most trusted financial advisor has to say tomorrow on Moneytalk. I suspect he will say it has been a wild ride on Wall Street but we remain in correction territory. My guess is he will say that he remains bullish.
Anonymous,
It sure looks like you made the right decision to hold GNMA's. And you are correct that Bob Brinker sold about half of his holdings:
In January 2011, Bob Brinker lowered weightings in Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund and sold all Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). At the same time, he increased holdings in Vanguard High-Yield Fund.
In May 2011, Bob Brinker again lowered Vanguard Ginnie Mae holdings in his "income portfolio" to 15% (portfolio III is at 20%). He also lowered the weighting in Vanguard Short-term Investment Grade from 25% to 15%.
The May money went to establish a holding in the Double Line Total Return Fund (DLTNX).
Frankj:
Jeff, you are probably right. Bland comments at best about how a correction can occur at any time.
BTW, did we have a follow through day? I read the definition thereof from the link, is was a little ambiguous, or I am dense. Probably the latter.
My guess for Moneytalk tomorrow is that Bob Brinker will talk about the year-to-date numbers instead of how much it is down from the high.
Recall that he talked about how it was only 5% (as it was two weeks ago) from the YTD high.
Here are the numbers he will use in order to avoid mentioning that he said he was buying 10% higher two weeks ago:
Dow 11269.02... YTD -2.66%
NASDAQ 2507.98.... YTD -5.46%
S&P 500 1178.81... YTD -6.27%
To Frank J,
Sorry Frank, no "follow-through" day. The price move, while good was not large enough, nor was the volume nearly high enough. IBD still grades the market as "Market in Correction". So I'm afraid we have to wait until next week.
For the record, here's IBD's definition:
"Follow-Through Day according to IBD (Investors Business Daily):
After a significant market correction, the market will look to regain its footing. Any up day then counts as Day 1 of an attempted rally.
The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don't need to show much in the way of gains. As long as they don't undercut Day 1's low, the rally remains intact.
For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes -- the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow -- to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.
Though a follow-through in that span gives the strongest signal for a new rally, one that hits anywhere between Day 4 and Day 10 can work. Follow-throughs that occur after Day 10 yield lower success rates."
I was looking at the number of posts, and it seems that the BLOG is quite a bit busier for quite a while now.
It is my imagination, or has it been busier?
How busy would it have to get to see a quick link near the top of a section to get to the posts? :--)
CNBC has a constant parade of “experts” coming on their network. For the most part they are equally balanced between Bears and Bulls. Listening to the experts does not help me now, nor has it ever, helped me make “in and out” market calls.
But now I’m intrigued by Dan G’s market calls. He may even mean them to be predictions. A bold endeavor!
I don’t know if Dan has been accurate. But he keeps giving market action play by plays, so he must be confident in his ability. I’ll give him an A+ for conviction!
An A+ would be better than any market timing grade that Bob B. has earned recently.
If Dan G becomes a market timing sage, I’m wondering if he will share his calls with common folk like me. After all, I don’t know the secret Wall Street handshake, nor do I have a precious magical ring to consult.
Dan, I am one Sorry Sad Sack SOB Simpleton investor that needs lots of help. Bless you for being there.------ Can you help?
Calling out from the bottomless pit of Wall Street; I am, Col. D Brewski
I agree with Bob Brinker that they should re-instate the uptick rule, but this looks like it might be a step in the right direction. From Barrons:
"Just in the nick of time, it seems, stock exchanges have expanded a key safety mechanism aimed at preventing swoons like the May 2010 "flash crash," when the Dow bizarrely dropped almost 1,000 points in 20 minutes, then snapped back on extraordinary volume. As of last Monday, every stock listed in the U.S. is covered by its own circuit breaker designed to pause a stock's trading if it makes a sudden large move."
Hitting the Switch on New Circuit Breakers
Frankj:
Thanks, Dan. I directed the question at Jeff, should have been you or Kirk. Like I said, I'm confused.
No Outdoor Feline Market Indicators the last few days.
Don't bite Honey. It is probably a troll trying to get you lined up for a lawsuit by Da Brink. I hear business has not been so good since people figured out he could not time a 3 minute egg with a stop watch.
tfb
Hi TFB,
Thanks for the tip. What is that thing with the pointy tail that keeps swimming around the perimeter of the pool when I'm in it, anyways? LOL!
Banking crisis starting in Europe and spreading to the US. Mkt starts to implode, there are runs on all the banks and the short-selling and the run-up in CDS prices force the US banks into whatever form of resolutio is allowed under Dodd-Frank and whatever Europe authorizes (BK?). The non-bank counterparties just declare BK. Mreit stock prices tumble along with everything else. Mreits lose not just their haircuts on repo'd mbs, but also the mbs - with its spreads and balanced hedges - can't easily be replaced at this point in time of decreasing spreads.
It could get ugly early .... If Italy goes ... Spain goes ... France and the rest of Europe will follow and the US won't be far behind. There will be a world-wide depression.
The above scenario may not happen, but it is more plausible NOW than in 2008, because the problems are not confined to the Banks ... the ultimate backstops, the sovereigns are also at risk. This is a VERY RISKY TIME .... and Michelle Bachman just won the Iowa straw poll .... If that don't scare the sh** out of you ....
It's a redux of 2008 all over again. There seem to be only 3 viable positions: (i) Cash, (ii) Gold and (iii) Fetal.
To the bunkers my friends ... bring the water, ammo, canned goods and gold bullion in with you and shut the door behind you.
I get a bit defensive when I see Obama attacked from all sides and angles, not only on this message board, but on financial television and even mainstream media these days. Even the Democrats are all over him for any number of issues- Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Guantanamo, extending Bush tax cuts, negotiating the debt ceiling deal on Republican terms, agreeing to cut Medicare and Social Security, etc.
When you look at the list I describe above, does that person sound like a commie socialist, as he is portrayed by Republicans and many in the financial and right wing media? The truth is the guy is a moderate, pragmatist. He's angering both the left and the right because he is cautious and pretty much cuts it down the middle.
I don't like a lot of things Obama has and is doing. I wouldn't have extended the Bush tax cuts as a biggie, but I understand why he did it. He is trying to keep stimulus of some manner or another going knowing the Republicans will never allow spending stimulus to happen.
I get a bit defensive when I see Obama attacked from all sides and angles, not only on this message board, but on financial television and even mainstream media these days.
So do you think that EVERYONE is wrong, and you and Obama are right?
He's angering both the left and the right because he is cautious and pretty much cuts it down the middle.
I think the anger is due to him being a TOTAL FAILURE and for being very economical with the TRUTH.
(i.e. a LIAR)
But,,,,,,,,I have no desire to turn this board into a political discussion on the SAME DAY that the Brink will be pumping his PHONY bulletin on the radio to sell newsletters. Do you have that desire?
Mr Pig said: "But,,,,,,,,I have no desire to turn this board into a political discussion on the SAME DAY that the Brink will be pumping his PHONY bulletin on the radio to sell newsletters. Do you have that desire?"
Mr Pig,
It sure looks he wants to derail the discussion from Bob Brinker's ridiculous bulletin.
The Brinker's have hit a home run this time. They have pulled what may be the mother-of-all-scams (MOAS)to sell newsletters.
I won't be saying too much more about this until after I hear the program today. We don't want to give away any insider secrets.
Well fellow taxpayers, you will be glad to know that you can now begin working for yourself and your families:
By GROVER NORQUIST
The drama of the last-minute vote to increase the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion has focused on projected deficits of the federal government and how they will add to the national debt. Those numbers are large. The national debt was $10 trillion when President Obama was inaugurated and is expected to be $15.5 trillion at the end of the year.
Yet focusing on the deficit understates the true cost of government. In fact, this year's deficit of $1.5 trillion is "only" 40% of federal spending. And while federal spending has jumped to $3.8 trillion in 2011 from $2.9 trillion in 2008—a 31% increase—that does not include state and local spending, which is estimated to total $1.6 trillion in 2011, according to new report from the Americans for Tax Reform Foundation (ATRF). Nor do these numbers include the cost of individuals and businesses complying with federal regulations: The total cost of such compliance is estimated to be $1.8 trillion.
Read more:
WSJ: Happy Cost of Government Day You Worked For It
Anonymous said;
"This is a VERY RISKY TIME .... and Michelle Bachman just won the Iowa straw poll .... If that don't scare the sh** out of you ...."
It sure would if I was a democrat. If She can connect with women voters like Obama did with African-American voters we are in for quite a race. Since I am not a democrat I look forward to voting for her.
When Republicans say that it's all about spending, they leave out the fact that the buildup in debt started with Reagan the tax cuts, reversed with Clinton's tax increases and once again rose on Bush's tax cuts.
The other thing that I find cogent is that debt is clearly spiraling higher in Obama's administration. No one can deny deficits are spiraling higher. But again look at the trends. Debt began its latest spiral higher with the collapse of the economy on George W. Bush's term. While Republicans say that debt has exploded higher under Obama, the reality is Obama inherited most of this debt from Bush in the form of a collapsing economy, two wars and those horrible Bush tax cuts.
OT ** 'Made in China' ranks only 2.7% of U.S. spending
"Convinced that everything you buy these days has a Made-in- China label?
Then you aren't paying attention. Things made in the U.S.A. still dominate the American marketplace, according to a new study by economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve.
Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption spending in 2010, according to the report titled "The U.S. Content of 'Made in China.' " About 88.5% of U.S. spending last year was on American-made products and services."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-made-in-china-20110813,0,2746654.story
http://tinyurl.com/42upzty
Oh boy! A little over an hour before Bob addresses us and the week's activities...on politics, of course!
You din't really expect him to give away his market-timing secrets for nothing, did you?
I imagine he will rant and rave about the debt, then rant and rave about the downgrade.
Then again, it could by Lynn Jimenez. In which case I will take a delightful nap!
The other thing that I find cogent is that debt is clearly spiraling higher in Obama's administration. No one can deny deficits are spiraling higher. But again look at the trends.
DUH, why didn't I see this?? It's all Bush's fault, of course.
It's just amazing how much control Bush has 3 years into the FAILED obama administration.
Hillary Clinton’s State Department has warned Israel that “unilaterally building more homes in Jerusalem is detrimental to the peace process.”
What peace process? The one in which the palestinians refuse to recognize Israel as a Jewish state peace process? Go to Hell, Hillary, you and your muslim boss and all your terrorist pals.
http://barenakedislam.wordpress.com/category/islam-and-the-jews/
"I get a bit defensive when I see Obama attacked from all sides and angles, not only on this message board, but on financial television and even mainstream media these days."
Hi Lynn! I'm goog weekend off!
"I get a bit defensive when I see Obama attacked from all sides and angles, not only on this message board, but on financial television and even mainstream media these days."
Hi Lynn! Have a great weekend off!
Wow - I think Bee was correct, this is just some troll trying to stop the conversation about Brinker's latest con.
tfb
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