STOCK MARKET: Caller Craig from Colombia asked: "Do you think this is a good time to start putting money back in the market with the pull back that we've had?"
Brinker replied: "We've stayed with our dollar-cost-average recommendation. I'm comfortable with that at this time. (Honey EC: Brinker has made no changes from last month stock market forecasts.) Obviously, if we were to get at a point where we could identify a buy-point in the market, then we would do that. We do that through the newsletter channels of course. But the reality is, the last time we did that was last September and the S&P 500 was 1100 at that time. It's way higher now than it was then.....At the investment letter, if I'm able to identify, and I'm happy to say that we did this in early July 2010 at essentially the bottom for that year. We did it again in late September last year, essentially at the bottom for 2011... If we're able to identify a buy-point on this correction, we will try to do so. Again, within the context of the newsletter and the website, but at this point I'm comfortable with dollar-cost-average."
Honey EC: Caller Craig clearly asked Brinker if it was "a good time to start putting money back in the market." Brinker has not recommended taking money out of the stock market since he went fully invested in March 2003. If subscribers follow the "context" of Brinker's Marketimer newsletter, they have had all of their stock and bond money fully invested since then. They rode down the 2008-2009 megabear market with Brinker. They rode down the 2010 correction, the 2011 and this current 10% correction with Brinker.
Brinker shamelessly brags about "looking
for buy-points" and having found them during corrections in 2010 and 2011. However, he never mentioned the ones that he made earlier. Note the ever-dropping S&P as he
issued "buy-point" after "buy-point," but never raised cash.
* August, 2007 (S&P: 1455.27) "Attractive for purchase mid-1400's"MARKETIMER BALANCED MODEL III FOR THE AGED: Caller Alice from Oakland told Brinker she was "very old" and wanted to know which of his portfolios would be the best for her.
• January 4, 2008, S&P @ 1411: "Mid-1400's"
• Feb 10, 2008 S&P @ 1331: "Low-1300's" (delivered via "special bulletin" - no mention of January Marketimer mid-1400's buying opportunity)
• Aug 5, 2008 S&P @ 1285: "1240 or less"
• Sept 2, 2008 S&P @ 1282: "Low-to-mid 1200's"
• September 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)
• Feb. 2009 S&P @ 826: “low-to-mid 800’s"
• January 2009 S&P @ 931: “bear market bottom range of 750 to 850."
* March 5, 2009, S&P @ 696: waiting for a bottom and a test of that low. No DC or buy levels. (Bottom was in one week after Marketimer was issued at 677.)
* July 1, 2010, S&P @ 1027 "attractive for purchase 1030."
* September 22, 2011, S&P @ 1129.56: “Attractive for purchase.”
Brinker replied: "Thank you for an easy question....The Marketimer model portfolio III, which is on page 8 of the newsletter each month, that is the balanced portfolio, that is the conservative portfolio and that is the portfolio that I think is the portfolio to choose for those who are approaching or in their retirement years."
Honey EC: Brinker's recommendation to elderly Alice is
not without risk. Marketimer model portfolio III contains holdings in two of Vanguard's
International Funds that have declined significantly, and a small
weighting in Akre Focus Fund -- a very under-diversified fund.
That
said, Brinker's model portfolio III is the only one of the three
Marketimer model portfolios that is not still worth less than it was in October, 2007. It's slightly higher. And it's the
only one that didn't lose money in 2011 -- it gained 1%. The two equity
model portfolios lost 3% -- none of Brinker's three model portfolios kept up with the total stock market
index.
JOBS REPORT...Brinker said: "They were expecting to see maybe 115,000, maybe a little more. Instead they saw 82,000 in the private sector and another 13,000 lost jobs in the incredible shrinking government.....How long will the incredible shrinking government go on? It's going to go on until it changes and nobody has any idea when that might be. Because the money is not there to fund public sector employment at the current levels.....You wind up with 69,000 net new jobs.....We'd rather see double that. And even if we had a 125,000 average monthly, we'd probably see unemployment stay right where it is."
EMPLOYMENT DATA...Brinker said: "Unemployment ticked up 1/10 of 1% to 8.2.... because hundreds of thousands of new workers entered the labor force.....The underemployed rate....moved higher into the 14 percentile."
HOUSING MARKET...Brinker said: "Private residential spending was up quite noticeably....We are at a point in the sector where things are starting to improve. In some sectors they are actually on the upswing, a general, gradual improvement would be the best guess for what's going on in housing."
Honey EC: I am on record saying that I sold my Ginnie Maes way too early. But I don't pretend to be America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor or a market-timer -- Brinker does. What he isn't saying is that he has sold some of his bond holdings in model portfolio III and the income fund. (Vanguard Ginnie Mae holdings are less than half what they once were and he sold all TIPS.)
HOT HOUSING MARKET VS RISING INTEREST RATES....Caller Jack said that the housing market is hot in San Diego and there are even some bidding wars. He asked Brinker if interest rates go up would it create another bubble and cause home to prices come down again.
Brinker replied: "No, just the opposite, if Obi-Wan Ben Bernanke were to substantially increase short-term interest rates tomorrow, he would guarantee that the economy will move into a recession and that the housing market would once again be in deep alfalfa.....Jack, he's not going to do that. It's not going to happen."
BEN BERNANKE AND INTEREST RATES....Brinker said: "They don't have interest rates at zero because it's saving money on national debt interest. They have interest rates at zero right now because they are trying to live up to their congressional mandate to promote higher employment, and 8.2% unemployment is way too high....They've already said they want to see it down around 5.2-6. That's so far away from where we are.....They are trying to promote economic growth. And even with a zero rate policy for years in place, we get 1.9% annual growth in the first quarter."
CRITICS OF BEN BERNANKE ARE "WHACKOS": "Brinker said: "I think that Ben Bernanke has done a lot of things right. And the only thing that surprised me is the criticism that has been leveled at Ben Bernanke. I'm going to be very honest with you, get me in a lot of trouble. Guess what, I don't care. I think the people that are singling out Ben Bernanke as a villain of some sort, I think they are whacko."
QE3 IN THE WORKS?....Brinker said: "The Federal Reserve will make a decision on QE3 based on the economy. If they think the economy is going to slide down to the zero line, or if they think we are in for deflation --we don't see any sign of deflation yet -- the core inflation rate is close to 2%, so we are not seeing deflation tendencies right now. Deflation tendencies or getting economic growth below the zero line would definitely spark a move on the part of the Fed and the most probable move would be another round of quantitative easing.....Most of the ammunition that the Fed has had to fire has already been fired. I think everybody knows that, including Obi-Wan Ben."
OPERATION TWIST ENDING.....Brinker said: "Operation Twist is scheduled to run through June where they sell the short-term stuff -- up to three years -- take the money and buy the longer-term stuff out to ten years or so. And they are in the midst of that here in June, continuing for the final month of the program. They have problems trying to continue Operation Twist because they are running out of short-term Treasuries and they don't want to corner the market on long-term Treasuries.....a bit of a conundrum, so it's going to be interesting to see what comes out of the next meeting. But I can assure you that they are going to remain highly accommodative. And I can assure you they will be deliberating the possibility of an additional easing move at this upcoming (June) meeting. Will they do it? They may wait until another meeting."
WHOLE LIFE INSURANCE....Brinker said: "I'm not a fan of whole life insurance. I think it's a lousy savings or investment vehicle. And I think it's a lousy way to buy a death benefit too. Term life insurance makes sense to me for a death benefit."
BOB BRINKER'S SON, BOB BRINKER: "Caller Mark from Mountain View said: "I downloaded a sample of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor and was quite impressed, so pass on a good word to your son. You must be proud of his achievements."
Brinker replied: "I think the thing I am most proud of, not only his achievements with the newsletter.....As you know, I'm a consultant on the newsletter. He writes the newsletter. The thing I'm most proud of is that it is the number one ranked newsletter in the country for the past five years by the Hulbert Financial Digest, which is an independent rating service. That's what I'm really proud of, Mark."
Honey EC: I will writes a complete commentary about this caller and Brinker's reply next week. For now, let me just say that shamefully, Brinker did not tell the whole truth. And some of what he said is false.
On a lighter note. Here is Jeffchristie's Moneytalk Final Exam question:
Today Bob Brinker spoke very highly of Ben Bernanke. Bob has compared him to what star wars character?Radio station: KSFO 560: 1-4pm (KSFO offers FREE Moneytalk on Demand for seven days after broadcast.)
A) Java the Hut
B) Yoda
C) Obi wan Kanobi
D) Darth Vader
Answer
Brinker's guest today was Dan Mulhern: A Governor's Story: The Fight for Jobs and America's Economic Future
75 comments:
I just heard Bob Brinker congratulate his son on his successful newsletter and said that he was a consultant on that newsletter but his son writes every single word.
He also said he was especially proud because the son's newsletter is rated Number One for the past five years.
KABC
I heard the same call -- had tuned in late and it was the first thing I heard. Then it got better and there was a call from a guy who wanted to know if he should put $$ in the market and BB told him not yet, but if we do make a recommendation it will be in the newsletter.
-- Frankj
KABC,
I heard it too. How nice that Bob Brinker, after five years of deception, finally decided to come clean.
What a business model he and Jr cooked up, and Jr rode the famous coattails all the way to fortune.
I was sucked into the UTEX fiasco and the QQQ but I only did a small portion, then I wises up and stopped subscribing. Now I subscribe to the Morningstar website and one of their newsletters - much better results and they don't time at all
Mark
How can be 100% invested and get advice not to put money into the market now?
Cake and eating it too?
Now Brinker can say in 3 weeks, I recommended on this show not to put money into the market and those that did not listen have no reason to complain.
I still remember that poor guy bash when the market was down 10% in 2008 and Brinker bashed he and bashed about wanting to sell. Poor guy probably stated invested and rode it down another 30%+.
Joey
"Obviously, if we were to get at a point where we could identify a buy-point in the market, then we would do that. We do that through the newsletter channels of course."
Yeah, don't think you are going to hear anything of value HERE! Pay up, sucker!
Bob also gave some potentially dangerous advice to a guy who wanted to safely invest $600K. Bob suggested laddered CDs which would be guaranteed by FDIC. If bought all in the same place in the same account, the ENTIRE $600K would probably not be insured.
Yep, listened for awhile, but not for long. Boring and self-serving, in my humble opinion. It's not like the good old days. Maybe it never was!
Dan,
Thanks for catching that about the laddered CDs for the guy with $600K.
I didn't cover that because it was so repetitious. But you are correct. FDIC only covers $250K per individual.
Dan quotes: "Obviously, if we were to get at a point where we could identify a buy-point in the market, then we would do that. We do that through the newsletter channels of course."
Dan said: "Yeah, don't think you are going to hear anything of value HERE! Pay up, sucker!"
The not-funny joke is that Brinker willingly "suckers" people with this utterly ridiculous snake oil.
He's made no stock allocation changes in NINE years. No sell signals, just repeated buy signals -- most of which were higher than the market is right now.
His two equity model portfolios are under-water over the past four years.
In light of all that, it's absolutely amazing that he is able to laugh all the way to the bank selling the idea that he will tell subscribers when it's a good time to "buy" the stock market.
For that useless garbage over the past nine years, one would have paid him $1665.00
Joey asked: "How can be 100% invested and get advice not to put money into the market now?
Cake and eating it too?"
Joey,
Bob Brinker isn't even embarrassed when he brags about doing just what you said.
He says it's for "new money." Yeah right.
Maybe Aunt Tillie died and left you a few million.
Or maybe you sold a home and made a big profit.
Or, to be serious, what if you retired and rolled your IRA over and put it in the market at his gift-horse buy signal just before the market dropped 57%?
But if none of those things happened for you, and you are a Marketimer subscriber who actually follows Brinker's advice, you have no money to "buy" with. You just ride the market up and down with him caterwauling about cyclical bulls and bears.
Mark,
Good for you for only getting suckered a little bit with Bob Brinker's UTEK and QQQ blunders.
You are one of the lucky ones. Many were very seriously damaged with the QQQ debacle. But Brinker's record was unscathed.
Mark Hulbert gave Brinker a mulligan to use the same money twice in his model portfolios, and ranks him without accounting for the trade.
Hulbert uses a footnote to say that the trade happened, but still gives Brinker a pass. So all of the Hulbert Financial Digest Marketimer rankings are false.
I know that none of the rags the digest follows can beat the market but if I point that out, NOONE will pay for a rag that ranks them. So, I make up new ways to rank and forgive them. I give the best marks to those who mention me on TV so they send more suc... er customers my way. Good thing it is not a crime.
Dilbert,
I have a question for you, and I think only you can answer this:
Bob Brinker said that Hulbert's was an "independent rating service."
Is that true? If so, what does that mean?
Bob Brinker took a call from Steve in Indianapolis. Steve ask Bob if he thought that the stock market might decline significantly for here. Bob ask him to define significantly. Steve said that the S&P dropping to 1,100 would be an example. Bob went on record that he does not expect a decline to 1,100.
"Bob went on record that he does not expect a decline to 1,100."
Yeah Jeff, but I'll bet that "record" is written in wet sand. If the S&P drops to 1,100, don't expect him to own up to it!
But if it doesn't, he'll be crowing "I told you so!".
Jeffchristie,
Thanks for reminding me of that call. I didn't get to it last night when writing my summary.
I will make it a point to get it "on the record" because as Dan pointed out, Bob Brinker will never own up to it if the market does drop another 20% from here.
By the way, Bob Brinker's market-timing has already proven WRONG just on this one correction. He's almost never right these days.
Marketimer, May 3, 2012, Bob Brinker said: "For now, we continue to maintain a favorable stock market view. We expect the current period of short-term consolidation to be contained withn the single-digit percentage range as measured from the April2, 2012 S&p 500 closing high of 1419."
I'm glad you pointed out that Brinker cut back on his Treasuries in 2011. I remember so clearly early last year when he commented on the air that he expected a difficult(or challenging) market environment for bonds in 2011. That is why he made changes and added the Wellesley Fund to his income portfolio. He wanted some dividend paying stocks in there in case things turned sour for bonds.
It turned out that the economy didn't grow as fast as he expected, so 2011 turned out to be another fine year for bonds. Now he ridicules the ones who were worried about rising interest rates. Amazing!
Jim,
As usual, you have great recall of what Bob Brinker actually says. Indeed, he's on record saying many times to stay short-term with bonds and funds. And to set mental stops, "if you are worried" about rising interest rates.
So for him to mount his high horse and look down his nose at others for taking defensive action, is not nice -- to say the least.
I'm sure that you noticed how he began his "income portfolio" crusade over the past few months, too. He's never made that portfolio a big topic on Moneytalk before.
And recall that he used to call it "fixed income portfolio", but soon after we pointed out on this blog that it contained equities when he added Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund, he changed the name to "income portfolio."
Every red blooded American male's fantasy woman, the HottieBee writes:
Brinker's recommendation to elderly Alice is not without risk. Marketimer model portfolio III contains holdings in two of Vanguard's International Funds that have declined significantly, and a small weighting in Akre Focus Fund -- a very under-diversified fund.
IMNTBMFHO, this is the height of irresponsibility. The caller indicated she was very old, the relevant question is how old is that, what is the condition of her health, how old her parents lived to be and her grandparents and what did they die of?
Last I knew Brinker's portfolio 3 was roughly a 50/50% split between stocks and debt instruments. I doubt there is a financial planner around who would recommend that asset mix for a 75 year old for instance if she anticipated a normalized lifespan based on family history.
Now very old is a subjective term, but I doubt a 65 year old would reference them-self in such a manner, nor a 70 year old, maybe at 75 and even that is awfully dubious.
tfb
Honeybee, I notice that of Brinker's 11 'buy points' you note, 9 of them are above water. The two that are not, are about 5 years old. A lot has happened in 5 years, and most of it was not predicted by anyone. Corruption, malfeasance, government favoritism, SEC incompetence, none of this shows up in corporate ledgers for analysis and evaluation.
Dan G, you must be intentionally misunderstanding him when Brinker suggests a CD ladder that is FDIC-insured. Do you really think he is suggesting putting $600K in one place? Really?!?!!
I'm not a mindless Brinkerbot, I went through a fully invested 57% decline and all the sleepless nights as I watched over $1.2 million disappear in 15 months. But it isn't Brinker's job to predict the unpredictable and sort out corruption, or government intervention, or malfeasance. We all have access to the same information he does. Marketimer newsletter disparagers are hilarious, expecting to make millions by mindlessly following a $185/year publication.
"Dan G, you must be intentionally misunderstanding him when Brinker suggests a CD ladder that is FDIC-insured. Do you really think he is suggesting putting $600K in one place? Really?!?!!"
Oh, did I hear him wrong? If so, my bad. Now please tell me what investment other than laddered CD's did he mention for that $600K?
I'm waiting.
that plug for the fixed income letter! WHAT HE WANTED TO SAY IS MY SON IS FULLY POTTY TRAINED so touching everybody knows hulbert's letter is another load of baloney. ALL I know is this guy hasn't made me a dime since 2003 the top was 2007 haven't even got even yet add inflation...... IT must be great up on brinker mt. Brinker on housing that one he missed by a mile .
also he's gotta love bernanke cause they both were wrong about everything
. Marketimer newsletter disparagers are hilarious, expecting to make millions by mindlessly following a $185/year publication
OH MY GOODNESS! Where-O-Where did you get that silly notion that people are mindless followers?
These subscribers stated over here and at Sweet Suite 101 that they could read between the lines in the newsrag. They could figure out what Brinker meant without him saying it. They knew his intent!
Not only that, they knew EXACTLY when to follow Brinker, and when NOT to follow. It was uncanny how they were able to do this. Some followed only bits and pieces or different allocations and percentages.
The people that brag over here about Brinkers successes are certainly NOT mindless. No sir..........IMO, they have a SPECIFIC AGENDA, doncha agree?
Like selling newsletters to Goobers and Geezers, perhaps?
Great post JayCeezy, it's nice to see a different point of view for a change.
It's too bad you watched you portfolio decline so much as a buy and holder like Brinker but you are pretty much recovered by now I imagine.
Most of us are in the same boat but you won't hear much of that around here. These people all say they are expected to lose money in a bear market because they are not market timers!
Go figure that logic.
A reader.
Jaycreezy
It would be one thing if Brinker just missed the 2008 great bear market but he vehemently excoriated the people who were predicting disaster in this 31 May 2008 Cassandra rant right here on Moneytalk.
RECESSION CASSANDRAS.... Brinker said: “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
.
CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."
.
LOST JOBS.... Brinker said: “And your questions to the Cassandras should be where are the millions of lost jobs that we would expect to see in a recession? In fact, in this economic slowdown, so far, we’ve only lost a few hundred thousand jobs total – dating back to the beginning of this year…………”
.
STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
.
We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
@Dan G said...
"Dan G, you must be intentionally misunderstanding him when Brinker suggests a CD ladder that is FDIC-insured. Do you really think he is suggesting putting $600K in one place? Really?!?!!"
Oh, did I hear him wrong? If so, my bad. Now please tell me what investment other than laddered CD's did he mention for that $600K?
I'm waiting.
June 6, 2012 6:59 AM
Dan G, how do you get an FDIC insured CD ladder? I'm waiting!*tick, tick, tick* You know, I know, and anybody who goes into a bank to get a CD (as I have this year split up $500K at 3 institutions) will be informed on the microscopic odds that they don't know. You are acting like he misled the caller, or doesn't know any better himself. I think YOU know better.
This kind of nitpicking is like saying Brinker told the caller to put on his shoes, but didn't tell him to put the left shoe on the left foot and then tie the laces.
@Jeff Christie, this board is full of people criticizing Brinker because they don't feel $185/year (same price for >20 years) is a bad value. Any of his comments are a snapshot in time. He may have missed calls, but he has nailed calls, too. People that subscribe are "suckers" to you and many Honeybee posters, but the minute they don't feel they are getting value they are welcome to get a no-questions-asked refund for all outstanding issues.
Seriously, what is your alternative? Buy-and-hold? If that is the case, your funds invested since 1999 would be at the same nominal value (and worth much less due to inflation). Do YOU know what is going to happen in the next 5 years? If so, get a radio show, millions of listeners, tens of thousands of subscribers, and make us all rich.
The market decides everything. Stock prices. Radio ratings. Brinker subcriptions. Even Honeybee blog hits. Sorry you don't like it. When Brinker is wrong often enough, he will join the ashheap with Doug Fabian, Wade Cook, Tom Vu, or get the ratings of Dave Ramsey who has to pay radio stations to play his lousy show. But the market is deciding that Brinker stays in business. No matter how much you don't like it.
Congrats to Gov Walker's win. Wiping out $3.6B in deficits without raising taxes and giving public employees freedom to choose whether or not if they want to be in a union.
I thought Dems were pro-choice.
"This kind of nitpicking is like saying Brinker told the caller to put on his shoes, but didn't tell him to put the left shoe on the left foot and then tie the laces"
What in the world are you (who has no name) talking about? Telling someone to buy $600,000 in laddered CDs without cautioning him to do it in 3 separate accounts is like telling him to put shoes on, but not on the right feet and not to lace them? Are you nuts?
There is no comparison. Failure to do one thing could cost him $350,000! Your silly example might make him uncomfortable, but without monetary loss. Ridiculous, and unworthy of further comment!
My God, it's no wonder you dropped over a million in the 2008 market debacle! What's that saying...a fool and his money....
JayCreezy, you are absolutely right. Anybody who is thinking of laddering a $600K CD knows full well about the $250K insurance limit.
Your post are most refreshing. I know see the poster is taking a snipe at you for watching your portfolio go down with the other buy and holders.
I think that poster also used to be a Brinker subscriber and lost on the QQQ trade. How did that happen I wonder?
Hold on JayCreezy, it won't be long before the personal attacks begin but don't let them get to you.
A Reader
Seriously, what is your alternative? Buy-and-hold?
No it is to buy and hold in a diversified portfolio that includes a cash/bond equivalent and rebalanced between the two when the asset allocation(im my case commodities, actual physical real estate bonds/cash/cds, equities and private equity) hit my re-balancing rules (which are admittedly more complicated than most.
This strategy had me taking money out of real estate at the peak of the bubble (I sold a farm to a developer and then bought it back 50% lower after they added in utilities)) and taking equities off the table at the 1400s and reinvesting at a much lower point 1100s and then again just a bit off the bottom. It also had me going into commodities (metals and oil when they were cheap)
Now I consider asset allocation with a rebalance to be market timing, and one of the two forms of market timing I know works, but most in this forum do not call it market timing.
But the Brinker version is sheer voodoo and proven by Brinker's own record not to work.
tfb
The market does not have perfect knowledge of Brinker's real record, the market as a whole only has the biased record that Brinker decides to reveal. Brinker constantly misleads by omitting relevant portions of his true record to lure in new subscribers.
tfb
Oh, I'm sorry. I just noticed that the post above is signed by joecreezy (no, not joecrazy). My mistake.
@Dan G said... Telling someone to buy $600,000 in laddered CDs without cautioning him to do it in 3 separate accounts...
FAIL!
By your own words,Bob suggested laddered CDs which would be guaranteed by FDIC. And how would you do that, I have to ask you again since you failed to answer before and I'm still waiting*tick,tick,tick* There is no way to do it at one institution. It isn't possible, the institution itself has to make you aware. Bob has made this point for decades, that is why he bothered to mention FDIC yet again.
And I know this because I have recently done this very thing with $500K. btw, I have a paid off house and >$2mm liquid (yes, Critical Mass), my wonderful wife is collecting a pension and full health benefits, and I am still working because I like my job, not because I have to. So if you have any advice so I won't get "fooled" like you just read above, please tell me how you have done it better.:-)
We interrupt this discussion to advise blogsters that the House of Representatives has passed legislation to put off, for one year, the upcoming ban on 100 watt incandescent light bulbs.
Now the issue goes to the Senate for consideration.
Bulb Timers, stand by.
Frankj (editor of BulbTimer)
Joecrazy,
You obviously seem to know a lot about Bob Brinker and Co. Even seem to know what he thinks and has mentioned for decades! Could it be you are related? Or could it be that you...is HIM?
And now you have a loyal supporter who definitely IS unnamed. He even thinks you are "refreshing". Could that be...JR???
Anyway, if Brinker was worth his salt (and in my opinion, he used to be, but just "phones it in" 2-3 times a month), he would have mentioned the $250K FDIC limit for the caller's information and for the listeners'. That's my opinion.
Oh, by the way, I also have a paid off house, am at critical mass, but UNLIKE you, sidestepped the 2008 bear market by watching my favorite long term indicator, the monthly MACD, which gave a bearish signal in late 2008.
I will give Bob credit for nailing the bottom of that bear market. Great call! Unfortunately anyone who had followed his opinion exactly had no money to invest at that bottom, having been 100% invested throughout the entire drop!
Anyway, nice talking to ya, Joe.
-Dan G
Dan G
A fool and his money are soon elected.
Will Rogers
TFB said, "Now I consider asset allocation with a rebalance to be market timing, and one of the two forms of market timing I know works, but most in this forum do not call it market timing."
Call it market timing or not, a rose by any name smells just as sweet! Asset allocation with diversification, and occasional re-balancing is a winning strategy, one that works very well, without constant "watching" the market.
I prefer to add some TA to the mix, even some seasonal tendencies, but that's just me. I am a firm believer in "if it works for you, DO IT!".
Dan G (who has no name)said...he would have mentioned the $250K FDIC limit for the caller's information and for the listeners'. That's my opinion.
Oh, by the way, I also have a paid off house, am at critical mass, but UNLIKE you, sidestepped the 2008 bear market by watching my favorite long term indicator, the monthly MACD, which gave a bearish signal in late 2008.
Dan G, I am sincerely happy for you. I am really happy that you got your money out in late 2008 (Oct 1, 2008 S&P = 967) and you must have felt pretty good missing the deathspiral down to 666. What did you do with the money when you got it out? Sit in cash? Bonds? What? And when did you get back in? What did your "favorite indicator" say and where was the S&P, and what are the periods on your MACD? What do you do about the false positives when they hit your "favorite indicator"? Just eat it, and smile? Did you get your @$$ handed to you on the QQQ as another reader noted? Or was he a liar, just like you call Brinker? Anyway, hope you got your money back in, because the S&P is now 30% above your exit point.
Also glad you are at Critical Mass, by your picture you are a lot older than me and don't have many years left to build your pile.
You and a few other regulars must have delusions of grandeur, that Bob Brinker Jr., much less the maven, would come and try to talk with you. What would possibly be in it for them? I'm just a guy who likes to get my Brinker in 5 minutes of transcript (not 3 hours of radio with 66 minutes of non-content). I truly appreciate the work Honeybee puts into this blog. And I am amazed at the lack of critical thinking by those like yourself, who criticize Bob without a baseline to compare his performance to. Who has done better? Why don't they have a radio show or newsletter? If you are able to pick one or two who have bested Brinker, put your nickel down and tell us who we should follow, what we should do and where the S&P will be one year, five years from now. What? You can't do that?*crickets* Right. Thought so.
Well, Brinker isn't perfect, this we know. Congratulations (really) on missing some of the 2008 Bear (the peak was 1549 a year before you got out, in October 2007, so your holdings would have lost 35% in one year before you got out).
Glad you give Brinker credit for calling the bottom. Did you listen to him then? It doesn't sound like it. But if you did, why would you listen one time, and not another? Why do you invest so much time in criticizing someone who "phones it in"? What are you trying to accomplish? Inform the ignorant masses that Brinker is a fraud? Guess what? The masses don't care what you have to say!:-) LOL~!
And Brinker stopping the show to tell a caller with $600K to split up the money in different institutions to get FDIC protection, which would be impossible to avoid doing, you are welcome to your opinion, please opine all you want on Brinker telling the caller to make an FDIC-insured CD ladder and then not saying what you wanted him to say. As Brinker would say, that would be from the "Department of Redundancy Department"!
Anyway, Dan G, don't go away mad.:-)
"A fool and his money are soon elected."
Now birdbrain, THAT is funny! :)
I think Will Rogers also said that the secret to making money in the stock market was to buy a stock that was going to go up, but if it doesn't go up, don't buy it!" Works every time!
Dan G.,
How do you feel about brokerage firms and the SIPC 500K coverage? Many of the brokerage firms claim they have purchased additional coverage from Lloyd's of London in case the SIPC coverage becomes exhausted. The big question though is whether they have enough coverage for all assets held under management. Would you advise to make sure and stay within the 500K? I'm not sure I would get a straight answer from the brokerage firms.
JayCeezy brings to mind an old friend of Honey etc,,guy by the name of Alan Coleman (Hawaii<->Alaska guy).
could it be?
My hero Dan writes:
prefer to add some TA to the mix, even some seasonal tendencies, but that's just me. I am a firm believer in "if it works for you, DO IT!".
Actually I consider technical analysis of an individual asset as a form of market timing and the other form I believe has merit(when used to assist in establishing a position in an asset).
And people should do whatever is right for them. That is one of the issue I have with Brinker he often dispenses extremely dangerous advice because he does not know relevant facts about callers. Advice needs to be customized to the individual circumstances, and face it anyone dumb enough to actually call Brinker for advice is stupid enough to implement it without further examination and too stupid to present relevant facts..
tfb
A READER, tries to smooch & smooze by saying, Your post are most refreshing. I know see the poster is taking a snipe at you for watching your portfolio go down with the other buy and holders.
Can you translate that into English for me? Thanks.
He continues, I think that poster also used to be a Brinker subscriber and lost on the QQQ trade. How did that happen I wonder?
That's not a personal attack is it?
sHE concludes by being WRONG again, Hold on JayCreezy, it won't be long before the personal attacks begin but don't let them get to you.
OPPS! Wrong again. What else are you wrong about? Why should anyone believe what you say after a personal attack, and being wrong, and poor writing skills.
NEXT...............
A Writer
Jim, I don't keep more than the $500K SIPC coverage in my trading account. My larger investment account is in large, reputable mutual funds which have never lost a dime.
If you are concerned about the integrity of your broker's claim to have purchased extra coverage from Lloyd's, I presume you could contact Lloyd's to confirm it.
Or you could contact an "expert" such as "Joe Crazy" and ask him. He does seem to know all the answers (though he didn't know enough to come in out of the market "rain" in 2008). But he does have time to write yards of garbage here. I sure must have hit a nerve, as he's devoted more time to "kindergarten insults" than I'm prepared to spend answering his volumes of non-sequiturs.
As to "Anonymous" who thinks Joe Crazy may be Alan Coleman, I doubt it. Alan has brains and class. I find "Joe" has neither of those qualities.
But enough of this. Arguing ad infinitum with posters here is a waste of my time, so I bid Joe and his Anonymous fan adieu, and good luck. And don't worry, Joe, rest assured that wisdom comes with age. Hopefully you will still be solvent when you attain maturity.
@Pig said...
A READER, tries to smooch & smooze by saying (pig continues with futile attempts at sarcasm)
pigTROLL, you have got to be joking, criticizing writing on an internet thread. That, or you just got nuthin' on the content. That's what people like you do, when they can't argue the point, start whining about 'teh' and pretending not to understand a very clear point. You seemed to understand it well enough to know it didn't agree with you. LOL~! As for whining about 'personal attacks', you remind me of the guy who steps into the boxing ring, gets a bloody nose and then complains to the ref "hey, he hit me!" Your posts are the equivalent of electronic junk mail. You are a thread-parasite, never making a point or adding information, just sobbing or smirking in reaction to something you could never make.
@Dan G said... so I bid Joe and his Anonymous fan adieu, and good luck. And don't worry, Joe, rest assured that wisdom comes with age.
Blahahahaa! Would that be the kind of "wisdom" that thinks (again, in your own words)"Bob suggested laddered CDs which would be guaranteed by FDIC" can all be placed in one institution? *tick, tick, tick* still waiting...
Right, Dan G, you are such a high-roader. Even though your very first salvo included the "wisdom" of namecalling "nuts" and "crazy". Way to go, you are a fine example of civil discourse and reasonable dialogue./sarc off
As for your "avoiding" the 2008 crash (after a one-year 35% crater, which would require a 50% return just to get to eve), congratulations again. Was that "favorite indicator" MACD flashing red when the S&P dropped 22% in eight days?!?!! in Oct 2008?:-)
You are failing to answer real questions (did you get back in, where the S&P is 30% above your exit point?, what did you do when you got out? how is that TA workin' out for ya? Fibonacci much?) The fact that you don't have good answers is not an insult; it is just that you don't have good answers. Own it.
"The big question though is whether they have enough coverage for all assets held under management. Would you advise to make sure and stay within the 500K?"
SIPC Insurance is for CASH only, NOT for all assets held under management.
If you are really concerned about coverage, switch brokers. I don't know many folks who carry cash balances in excess of $500K.
MAEL
I knew it JayCeezy, it doesn't take long to pile on when somebody gives any credit at all to Brinker.
All these posters come out of the woodwork and claim that Brinker's market timing doesn't work but THEIRS does.
One talks about selling his farm and buying commodities or some darn thing and the other has a magic monthly MACD thingy that always gets him out.
They still have a lot of name calling to do JC so just hunker down.
A Reader
pigTROLL,
((( ROAR )))
GOTCHA, AGAIN stinkin, or should I say Donnie? You are SOOOOO Easy. Hey Whassup with the huge paragraph of whining and whimpering with all those run-on sentences? I think you used the word "YOU" at least 39 times. Doncha like me NOOmore?
AAR, why do you think that PIMPING under numerous names at multiple sites for a washed up charlatan that has to LIE about his record is considered "contributing to a thread and discussion"? I call it what it is........PIMPING, and YOU ARE VERY WELCOME!
The babies complaining that Brinker "missed" this 10% downturn crack me up. Corrections happen. If your sensitive heart can't take the stress, then the stock market is not for you. Invest in something safe, like gold. Or real estate. Or put it in the bank, where it is insured (up to $250K per institution, Dan G!*tick, tick, tick*). But just makes 1% interest. On which taxes must be paid. And inflation erodes.
You babies are driving in the rearview mirror, and Brinker is looking forward out the windshield. You just enjoy your view!:-)
@pigTROLL, looks like you have had some ongoing runins with multiple people. I'm not one of them. Keep up the grammarPolicing, that's what to do when you are shooting blanks on the subject!
Jayceezy,
I find it very strange that you know so much about some of the posters on this blog.
And you obviously, don't care for this blog or the way that I keep track of Bob Brinker's hocus-pocus and horse-puckey.
So what's the appeal for you? Care to share with me?
BTW Jaycreezy,
What's your Twitter handle?
You and a few other regulars must have delusions of grandeur, that Bob Brinker Jr., much less the maven, would come and try to talk with you.
Actually I think he would probably offer to xxxxx xxxxxx any one of us because he is a punk. And he probably learned to do that from daddy also.
tfb
@pigTROLL, looks like you have had some ongoing runins with multiple people. I'm not one of them. Keep up the grammarPolicing, that's what to do when you are shooting blanks on the subject!
GUFFAW You crack me up!
Firstly, permit me, please, to apologize for being mistaken that you have run into me before (or after).
I somehow got that impression from your poor writing, improper English and calling me "YOU" 39 times in run-on sentences during your whimpering and crying jag earlier..
AAR, BTW, you did not answer my question about your constant PIMPING for a washed up charlatan that has trouble knowing how to tell the truth about his past.
Whassup with that?
Of course, you will now run away, change your ID, and pretend to disappear, just like you have for the last 12 years, and then pretend to just find this WORLD FAMOUS BLOG again, for the 1st time.
As I said..............YOU CRACK ME UP
p.s. I betcha Dan G knows who you are now, and YOU ARE VERY WELCOME.
TATA.and please DO come back again.
"Actually I think he would probably offer to xxxxx xxxxxx any one of us because he is a punk. And he probably learned to do that from daddy also."
OH, NO! BUNNY! That's so unkind! And so funny! And so true!
1 of 2
@Honeybee, I posted on this blog for the first and only other time a few months ago, to bring some information about Bob, his show, and newsletter. Wrongly it turns out, I thought it would be appreciated but it was disregarded without any alternative information and a few posters took some gratuitous potshots as if I were some shill or had another agenda. My agenda is transparent: I like Brinker, and his advice has benefitted me personally with knowledge and financial results.
A few months ago, I took your questions then at face value, probably a mistake. But, unlike some of the braggarts posting here, I have actually made mistakes. Some of them twice. So, here are your answers, everything I write is true.
I'm not on Twitter, Facebook or anything like that. The "@" is pretty common now when you are addressing somebody in an internet thread.
I know so much about Brinker, because I have been listening and subscribing for more than 20 years, and reading about him in some industry (both radio and publication) periodicals, too. At one point, he was the 800 lb. gorilla in the very competitive world of personality-driven personal finance and he earned that respect.
I have lurked your board for some months, and read the show transcripts. Getting Brinker's radio show is too unpredictable now, and downloading the KGO (now KSFO) .mp3s is a hassle and the frequent guest hosts are boring, not to mention the Frisco traffic, weather, commercials, etc. But your board and transcripts are good for me, because I like to know what Brinker is saying and I'm not up for MoneyTalk on demand.
I don't know anything about the posters on this board other than what they have revealed to me in this thread. Go back and read my posts, you will see. Dan G is a know-it-all bully who nitpicks, and pig is a troll; both very common types on internet boards, whether it is music, movies, politics, etc. I usually skip the comments, because there is a lot of inside stuff that doesn't mean anything to me. But sometimes I do notice the way Brinker is accused and demeaned and namecalled. I strongly disagree, and haven't seen anything to back up assertions made here that Brinker is a charlatan or a liar or a fraud.
Also, I saw you list Brinker's 'buy points' and wondered what your point was, as those were snapshots in time (9 of 11 are above water today). It seemed like you were demeaning him, as if he was wrong to make those calls. Brinker has also stated that "once the damage is done" to a portfolio, there is no sense selling at a loss. If he had issued a sell point, he also would have to issue a buy point to get back in; doubly risky. (see part 2)
2 of 2
@Honeybee,cont'd.
Brinker Jr.'s fixed income newsletter? So what? Bob said he was a consultant, so he knows what goes out. If it was horrible, it wouldn't be in business. But it isn't, it is "number one"! (Which can mean a lot of things, sales? subs? performance? demographics?)
I like Brinker and his show, that is why I found your blog in the first place by Google. I have learned a lot, found his 'reading list' to be great and educational, and his newsletter has been a good investment for me. Every year, subscribers have to actively pay again; so each subscriber is doing so willingly.
Of course Brinker puts the best face on his record, his show, and newsletter. I don't know what you and other posters are expecting; that Brinker will come out and say "I was wrong" or "I'm sorry"? This is as much art as science, and things change; Brinker goes with what he knows at the time. It does not seem fair to hold him to a call he made five years ago, when since that time hundreds of banks have failed, investment houses have failed, corporations required a bailout, unemployment skyrocketed past 10% and is still brutal, S&P and Moody's rating services were bought-and-paid-for, junk bonds and subprime mortgages cratered, the Fed printing $700b out of think air for what?,etc. Who knew all this in 2007? Brinker finds this stuff out when it hits the news, and when a political act happens unexpectedly (healthcare "reform" passed by one vote), Arab spring impacts oil, etc.
The really remarkable thing about this blog, is that Brinker gets bbq'd. But what is the baseline on which he is measured? His predictions (based on old information?). Who has done better? Why don't they have a radio show? Even if you do find somebody with a better record, will they have a better record next year? Five years from now? If they are so good, where are they? There are tons of these guys, in S. Cal on radio there is Mo Ansari, who paid KABC to carry his daily radio show to steer listeners to his Advisor service. Ric Edelman has a two-hour syndicated show, and he was the guy who told his readers in his bestselling books for years to "get the biggest mortgage you can afford". We all know how that turned out. Dave Ramsey is a joke, he is good for single-moms living with their parents and $30,000 in credit card debt.
Anyway, I know your blog has a history that was/is contentious. I have not been a part of it. But I'm having my say now, after getting sandbagged a few months back. And it is funny too how the posters that addressed me are the typical "internet tough guys" who are aggressive in tone, but can't back up or make a point with facts. Says a great deal about them.
Well, I hope you are satisfied with my answers. But I'm not counting on it.:-) Anyway, thanks for your work on the transcripts. Cheers.
You and a few other regulars must have delusions of grandeur, that Bob Brinker Jr., much less the maven, would come and try to talk with you.
Actually I think he would probably offer to xxxxx xxxxxx any one of us because he is a punk. And he probably learned to do that from daddy also.
tfb
NOW THAT'S THE KIND OF POST WE'VE COME TO KNOW AND LOVE FROM tfb!!!
Kudos to Jay Ceezy on a thoughtful, well-reasoned responsive post.
A Reader
NOW THAT'S THE KIND OF POST WE'VE COME TO KNOW AND LOVE FROM tfb!!!
LOL, well I knew my fans were getting disappointed with my reflective reasonable posts of late. So I could not disappoint them.
tfb
Honey, Appreciate you posting "Jay Ceezy"'s comments. I would have to say that he makes good points for the most part and would be a positive asset to join in the discussion here. Don't totally agree with him but he certainly makes more cogent points than that "PIG" fellow who is a total waste of bandwidth, a real "roof-job" with nothing meaningful to say - guess he thinks he is a comedian.. Guess what - he's not funny at all!
Mystic Pizza
Mystic Pizza,
Everyone has their say here. And I resent your attacks on my friend, Mr. Pig.
Now if you want to contribute to something worthwhile, feel free.
If you want to make ad hominem attacks on other posters, don't waste your time or mine.
Jayceezy,
I am not going answer all of your questions because I think the answers are available here on this blog for everyone.
But you made one statement that is so false that I will address it. You said: "Anyway, I know your blog has a history that was/is contentious..."
No, Jayceezy, you don't know any such thing. That may be your opinion, but it is not factual.
Jayceezy, I see now that I've had time to carefully read your mass writings that you slipped in some major name calling directed at Dan G.
Dan is my friend and a well-respected member of this little blog.
You, on the other hand, are not.
Jayceezy said: "Also, I saw you list Brinker's 'buy points' and wondered what your point was, as those were snapshots in time (9 of 11 are above water today). It seemed like you were demeaning him, as if he was wrong to make those calls...."
Jayceezy,
I don't "demean" Bob Brinker. I post the facts and let them fall where they may. Some of them do demean him by showing what a snake oil salesman he is....
So some of his buy-points have now recuperated from the losses that happened after he issued them. Well, isn't that nice?
How would you have felt if you put money into the market on his buy-points and watch it drop like a rock?
If you don't see those "market-timing" calls as "wrong," then don't bother to read this blog anymore because it takes a certain amount of intelligence to understand and appreciate what I report.
The tfb challenge:
List anytime Bob Brinker has successfully timed the stock market.
Definitions:
In order to be successful as a market timer you need to
1) be correct on both sides of the equation, for example on:
the entry and the exit
or
the exit and the entry
2) You actually need to enter or exit the market. It needs to be no ambiguous. You are either in the market or not, no hedging! If you are a market timer you either believe the you should be in the market because it will go up or you believe you should get out because it will go down – period. Changes in % of allocation is salesmanship and demonstrates you have no conviction in your prognostic ability.
So all you Brinker fans, step up and take the tfb challenge. State one time Bob Brinker has demonstrated he has successfully timed the stock market. The criteria is clear, non-ambiguous and above all fair, after all the purpose of market timing is to get in the market before it goes up and get out before it goes down. Surely Bob Brinker after all these years has had one successful call. Just point it out to me.
tfb
I think some of the criticism directed at BB is justified, but the name calling and juvenile remarks are just a waste of everyone's time and energy. I had hoped this blog was going to provide a forum to discuss financial strategies, Bob's, mine, yours and others.
Yes, some of us are older than others and critical mass aside, I suppose we all want to recognize good (or bad) advice when we hear it.
I never acted on the QQQ or TIPS suggestions, primarily because they did not make sense to me. I'm no financial genius, I just didn't get it and wasn't going buy something I didn't understand.(Something Bob taught me, back when he still cared.)
I've listened to Bob since day one, and noticed a genuine change in his message over the years. His primary mission is no longer to educate, but to sell newsletters and on-demand podcasts.
I only subscribed to the newsletter for 2 years, and noticed that it broke a most important rule: to write for your audience, not yourself. It was not written for "his" reader. Which, IMHO is a serious problem, a huge red flag. Although, it was brief, it was painful to read. Which is why this blog is so great, not too painful, unless you count the personality attacks.
Anyway, remember back in the day when Greenspan was chair and everyone would comment on how impossible it was to understand his comments (message)? He deliberately spoke gobblety-gook. It provided him with a curtain, where he could hide, and when I figured it out, it was comical. Remember the EF Hutton commercials? Everyone was listening and it took a nation filled with financial analysts to make sense of it. Well, I think Bob took a page from Greenspan's (and L.Frank Baum's) book and thought, "if Greenspan can get away with it, then so can I."
Clearly, Bob must know that most of his listeners do not listen every single weekend or understand what he is saying or they wouldn't keep asking about annuities and CD ladders.
You and I know that most subscribers never open the envelope. I opened every-one, but never got much that was useful from it and early on, I foolishly slept well believing Bob was looking out for me, especially because I was a subscriber.
Mystic Pizzaface sez, . Guess what - he's not funny at all!
Who was trying to be funny?
How come you write so similar to the other newsletter pimp?
Did you choose that ID to honor Brinker picture?
Is this going to be like your last dozen routines over here? You keep this thread going with personal slurs thinking that NOONE is returning back to read them, and you have the final say?
You don't have to be right twice to time the market. You just have get back in at a lower price than when you sold and you are ahead of the buy and holders.
And tfb says you have to be in or out of the market no hedging which is also silly. Why not say the timer has to go short too when he is out of the market?
And forget about asset allocation, just put all your money into one investment if you really think you are a prognosticator. Of course nobody does that either.
A Reader
Pig said...
Mystic Pizzaface sez, . Guess what - he's not funny at all!
Who was trying to be funny?
How come you write so similar to the other newsletter pimp?
Did you choose that ID to honor Brinker picture?
Is this going to be like your last dozen routines over here? You keep this thread going with personal slurs thinking that NOONE is returning back to read them, and you have the final say?
==================================
Thank you for proving my point!! In any event, can you point to ONE SINGLE solitary post that you have made on this blog where you have presented anything of value related to the financial markets?? JUST ONE, thats all I ask for..My opinion only is that you are a complete moron
Market Timing: All Or Nothing?
"...there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception.
Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds and sixty-forty are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score." Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994
PS
PizzaFace lies and spits out: Thank you for proving my point!! In any event, can you point to ONE SINGLE solitary post that you have made on this blog where you have presented anything of value related to the financial markets?? JUST ONE, thats all I ask for..My opinion only is that you are a complete moron
NO, THANK YOU FOR PROVING MY POINT And thanks for the name calling that you do NOT want to participate in.
Each and every time I bring up the scam of selling newsetters to Goobers and Geezers, you show up with a new ID, totally upset with me, and ask me to prove that I have worth to this thread.
After 12 years, yathink NOONE would notice the pattern?
Exactly what do I need to know and talk about to prove to you that I can recognize a scam artist and washed up charlatan, and his handful of paid pimps?
Why are you confusing the issues? Are you that stupid, or that insecure, or are you just guarding a newsletter racket worth millions upon millions?
Why should my opinion matter to you, such a big financial genius as you are?
BTW, if you run across a pretty big orange bridge for sale, let me know, OK?
You don't have to be right twice to time the market. You just have get back in at a lower price than when you sold and you are ahead of the buy and holders.
No you are not . You have to compensate for the compound effect moving forward of any dividends. I.E. those dividends will produce dividends.
Next you have to account for taxes and then transaction cost, each one of those subtractions is devastating to long term performance.
The lower price needs to be calculated forward to account for any missed dividends, taxes, and transaction costs.
In other words it is not as simple as you are indicating. And there are other considerations. This is why the analysis is normally carried out by academics who have training in proper statistical methodology and modeling.
And tfb says you have to be in or out of the market no hedging which is also silly. Why not say the timer has to go short too when he is out of the market?
It is not silly, it is factual. The reality is the only reason Brinker hedged in 2000 was because he failed to correctly time the market in the past because his system is and was a failed model which he freely acknowledged. So he came up with this hedging nonsense because he knew he could manipulate it to give the appearance of accuracy, and that is what he has done. He never corrects a caller when they say he made a brilliant call and they got out of the market back in 2000. He never got out of the market, he simply reduced some his exposure. That is not market timing. And if you listened to the audio of that show you would laugh you ass off at how timid, frightened, and childish he sounded when making that announcement. There was no: I believe the market may correct in the months ahead, no it was this total pussy: how would you feel if the market went up 10% and you only gained 6%, but if it went down 10% you would only lose 6% - LOL. He had no conviction and it sounded like he was trying to convince himself. If this is the type of pussy game you are going to play then just stick to asset allocation with a rebalance. You will get the same effect. I’ll admit it, I am a market coward. I have critical mass and I do not want to see it diminished. So I play the pussy game, but at least I’ll admit it. That call was not market timing, it was ball-less faggoty pussy shit! And I put it in that context because if you are going to proclaim you are market timer and charge people for your advice then time the damn market – don’t play pussy hedge games.
And yes if he had any conviction he would go short. But you know why he does not, because Brinker knows his entire system is bullshit! That is why his newsletters start tracking after 1988 – because he blew both ends of the 87 downturn! He totally crippled people effectively for the rest of their life with his market timing bullshit! They are forever handicapped by the capital gains and the dividends they missed when the market shot up. Compound interest is a bitch of a mistress when you are on the wrong side of the equation as Brinker was. You are forever trying to play catch up, always having to mislead, hide and cover up your actual record.
I am still waiting for demonstration that Bob Brinker has ever successfully timed the market. Just one little instance, so go ahead and take the tfb challenge.
tfb
Well it's OK, Fuzzy One that you don't have an opinion! :-)
Pardon me for LOL but I just read tfb's arguments against market timing and I think they come right from Chapter 10 of a 1955 Beginning Investments book.
He talks about missed dividends which may have been important years and years ago when dividends made up half of the markets total returns. That hasn't been true for years.
And transaction costs really made me laugh. There was a time when transaction costs could amount to thousands of dollars but with the advent of discount brokers transaction costs are either non-existent or negligible. To talk about them seriously weaken any argument and dates the author as out of touch if not outmoded.
I don't know if Bob Brinker can time the market or not but trotting out yesterday's arguments in today's market environment is not persuasive at all.
Again pardon me for jumping in and LOL.
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