If Brinker is on Moneytalk Sunday, he will probably do a bit of bragging about the stock market again since it rose nicely this week. The S&P 500 Index closed at 1362, up 33 points -- gaining 2% for the week. The Nasdaq gained almost 3%.
Brinker likes to hearken back to his successful "attractive for purchase" call in September, 2011 -- one that he finally got right after several that were wrong.
On Moneytalk, Brinker repeatedly says that he recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new money into the market. He believes the current cyclical bull market still has further to go and that the "bear" will not begin in the "next few months."
Brinker's Marketimer S&P target range is "upper-1400s to lower 1500s." In April, he first made that projection and the time frame was "this year." In May, 2012, he extended the time-frame for the target range projection to "within the next 12 months," but he in June, he gave no time frame. He simply said "going forward."
4 comments:
"Brinker likes to hearken back to his successful "attractive for purchase" call in September, 2011 -- one that he finally got right after several that were wrong."
Brinker, in a burst of candor, has said if you are going to make a market call, make a lot of them.
He was serious.
This is not a recommendation just an observation. But I just caught (because I do not follow it though I am curious)that Value Line changed their asset allocation percentages on 04/02/2102.
They were 65-75% equities and they changed it to 60-70% in equities. Their allocation is based on economic and financial conditions. So they lightened up by 10% across the board on April 2nd.
tfb
"They were 65-75% equities and they changed it to 60-70% in equities. Their allocation is based on economic and financial conditions. So they lightened up by 10% across the board on April 2nd."
It looks to me like they only lightened up by 5% but anyway that would not be considered market timing by you.
You only consider market timing to be 100%...in or out. Is that correct?
Janeway
It looks to me like they only lightened up by 5%
LOL, actually it is a typo I meant it to be 7.5% (armchair math). More precisely it is actually a range of 7.14% to 7.69% so the average change is 7.415% so my initial armchair thought of 7.5% (reflected as 5%) was off a tiny bit.
Here is the math:
(OrignalAllocation - CurrentAllocation) / (OrignalAllocation) = PercentChange.
And to answer your question, in the context of paying for market timing advice from a person who sells a market timing service I would expect all or nothing allocations to the stock market.
tfb
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