Friday, June 1, 2012

June 1, 2012, Bob Brinker's Unexpected 10% Stock Market Correction

June 1, 2012....Let's quickly review what the stock market did in May and compare it to Bob Brinker's latest forecasts:

THE MARKET

All gains for 2012 have been wiped out and it's officially in 10% correction mode: 
 (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks fell more than 2% Friday, turning the Dow industrials negative for the year and pushing the S&P 500 into correction territory, after a U.S. jobs report showed slim growth last month.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -2.22% fell 267 points, or 2%, to 12,126. The index is now down 2.6% for the week and 0.7% for the year.
The S&P 500 Index SPX -2.46% dropped 31.11 points, or 2.4%, to 1,279.31, undercutting what some analysts see as support at 1,280. The index is 10% off an intraday, 52-week high of 1,422.38, reached on April 2. 
 BOB BRINKER'S CURRENT STOCK MARKET FORECASTS

Bob Brinker is still bullish. In the April and May 2012 issues of Marketimer, Brinker raised his S&P target range to  "upper-1400s to lower 1500s" and extended the time frame to "within the next 12 months." He recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new stock market money and all of his model portfolios remain fully invested.

Moneytalk, April 29th, Brinker said: "I have not at this time, in April of 2012, I have not predicted a crash in the market."

Blogger Jim said.
Well the month of May is finally over, thank goodness. And what a horrible month it was. I've read it was the worst month in 2 years for the stock market.

I guess many of us should have expected this however, after Brinker proclaimed a month ago that there is no seasonality to the stock market. I guess Brinker won't discuss that topic anytime soon.I don't expect him to discuss ANYTHING about the stock market anytime soon. So get ready for his alternate topics: tax policy, the national debt, and the problems in Euroland.

Jim is right.  On May 6th,  Brinker said "One of the things you're going to be hearing about going forward is about the seasonality of the market. This is one of the great myths of Wall Street....The facts do not bear it out and yet people continue to promote it as though it were true even though it is not true. The seasonality that I speak of is the seasonality that the market goes down from May to October every year. Of course, this is nonsense. I wanted to share some statistics with you on this. To prove the point. If you go back about six decades plus...to middle of last century and check the S&P 500 from the beginning of May to the beginning of October, and  here's what you will find. On 60% of the occasions -- 6 out of 10 basically the market is either up -- usually up or else it is even. And in only 4 out of 10 cases was it down during that time. So you see, fiction is fiction is fiction."

Blogger Dan G said...
I hope you all sold in May and went away.

And also in June to avoid the swoon.

Stay out in July or you will fry.

Watch out in August for a big bust.

September and October will be horrible months to remember.

November 1 is All Saints Day. Buy 'em back, then hope and pray!

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

rasputin here: Thanks for the overview. I'm still 60-40 (equity to fixed) in the Vanguard 2015 Target Retirement fund. Our company switched from Vanguard (which I single-handedly got us into after being in Mass Mutual) and into VALIC. Sheesh. I hate that. We have an S&P 500 fund and a Total Market fund but the expense ratios are higher than Vanguard so I'm avoiding them on principle. The Vanguard 2015 fund is 40% Total Stock Market, 20% Total International Stock Market and 40 Total Bond Market I'm not crazy about the international weighting. Not sure about Total bond. Any thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Going to be savings bonds, tips, refis and IRA rollever questions this weekend. No one will have a question about the stock market.

LOL. Joey

Honeybee said...

Hi Ras....It's nice to hear from you. It sounds like those Vanguard Funds that you mentioned are following what Bob Brinker calls a "balanced approach."

Brinker is very cautious about staying short term with bonds right now -- or at least, setting a mental stop loss in case interest rates head up.

Brinker's actually moved further out into higher risk bonds and lowered his Treasury and Ginnie Mae holding in his balanced portfolio and also his fixed-income portfolio.

Also, he sold all TIPS.

He added DoubleLine Total Return Fund to his income portfolio and has a 25% weighting in Vanguard High Yield Fund. However, we should remember that this portfolio is off-the-books of his official record.

Honeybee said...

Hi Joey...Yep, Bob Brinker will probably be on the air tomorrow, but I will be surprised if he talks much about the May stock market.

Someone might call up and ask why he told the audience on the first of May that "seasonality is nonsense." LOL!

Don't worry Bob. We all know that one month, one May and one year doesn't really prove anything. But losing 10% this may wasn't too much fun.

Dan G said...

HB said, "Someone might call up and ask why he told the audience on the first of May that "seasonality is nonsense." LOL!"

And if anyone believes that "someone" would get past the call-screener, he/she probably also believes in the tooth fairy!

I will get my dose of BB's prattlings on this site, not on the air. 3 hours of sports, debt, IRAs, and DCA are more than I can bear anymore.

Anonymous said...

As you know, the Vanguard 2015 Target Retirement fund is what it is.

You may not like the allocation but there is nothing you can do about it except get out. You can't substitute bond funds or anything else.

I'm surprised VALIC even offers you a small choice, they usually like to push their expensive annuity type products.

Somebody probably got something for the company to switch from Vanguard to VALIC.

VGB

Anonymous said...

Hey Honeybee,

You mentioned that Brinker sold all his tips. I never liked the TIP mutual fund, but how about Individual Tips that were purchased before interest went negative. I have one Tip wtith about a 1.7% yield that I purchased at 100.000 dollars and is now worth 128,000 dollars if sold on the open market, but it's inflation component is around 112,000 dollars. I have been debating on selling it, but given what happened in May and what is going on in Europe right now,I can't see them raising rates any time soon.

Mark

Honeybee said...

Mark,

I don't think that Bob Brinker has ever specifically answered that question, but I'm sure the same rule that he has applied to I-Bonds would apply to individual TIPS.

He has repeatedly told callers to hang on to those I-Bonds that they bought when interest rates were higher.

Plus, he has specifically said that the reason he doesn't recommend the TIPS mutual funds now is because the interest on them is zero to negative.

Here are some comments that Brinker made on Moneytalk last February:

TREASURYS: Bob said: "I think if you're going to be invested in Treasurys at this juncture, you have to have a hold-to-maturity approach....If you go out and buy a Treasury today at these historically low yields....and if you were to see higher yields you would see a reduction in the value of the principal that you paid for the Treasury....I think you do run the risk of seeing these securities go under water sometime in the next ten years."

Jim said...

Bob Brinker may not like the negative yield on that TIPS mutual fund but thus far here in 2012 just as it did in 2011 it is beating every fixed-income investment he is recommending.
After a stellar return of 13+% in 2011 it is up 5.23% YTD.

Anonymous said...

Ras:

Will the Van 2015 fund maintain those allocations as we get closer to the year 2015? That's one thing to consider.

Personally, I would rather do my own allocation because of that. But, it sounds like you don't have a low cost option.

Good of your company to go to Vanguard, bad of them to leave. I wonder what they based that decision on?

-- Frankj (back from a quick trip to SoCal, a nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there).

Anonymous said...

"Plus, he has specifically said that the reason he doesn't recommend the TIPS mutual funds now is because the interest on them is zero to negative."

It's not just the TIPS mutual funds but individual TIPS too. Recent TIPS have a zero fixed rate and often have a negative yield.

Many people have been saying that rates have to go up soon and the bond market will get crushed but they have been saying that for at least 3 or 4 years while the bond market continues to rally. They have been totally wrong.

Bondbull

Anonymous said...

"I have been debating on selling it, but given what happened in May and what is going on in Europe right now,I can't see them raising rates any time soon."

In that case Mark, would you recommend holding on to your entire fixed income portfolio?

Some people sold their bond portfolios because they thought rates were going up and they missed out on a bull market.

Personally I thing you should just hold on to your bond holdings including funds.

Bondbull

Anonymous said...

"Some people sold their bond portfolios because they thought rates were going up and they missed out on a bull market."

Some people blast Brinker for trying to time the stock market and then they turn right around and try to time the bond market.

I don't think there is any difference except maybe timing the bond market is harder.

All those people who sold their bonds within the past 3 or 4 years are wishing they hadn't. Everybody knew rates were going up and everybody was wrong.

BandH

Honeybee said...

Yes,

You guys that have pointed out that those who sold their bonds earlier were wrong, are absolutely correct.

However, you have to include Bob Brinker in that. He has been selling Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund for some time now and has rather minimal weightings in his portfolios. Ditto TIPS and short-term bonds -- all gone.

I'm also on record saying that I sold Ginnie Maes too soon. I even went short bonds. To quote America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor: "I was wrong." LOL!

The difference between Brinker and me is that I haven't gotten rich selling market or bond timing. But it looks like that is where the real money is...

Pig said...

To quote America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor: "I was wrong." LOL!

I thought the correct syntax of that on the radio was "we was wrong"?

He could blame Bush for it, just like the other failure that can't admit to being a failure.

Honeybee said...

LOL Pig...Indeed, it was "We were wrong."

But there is only one of me. There's two Bob Brinker's. :)

Anonymous said...

Heck, Brinker has been saying stay away from long term bonds for nearly a decade.

My long term bonds have been up on avg 11.25% per year during that period. Brinker left a lot of money on the table for his subscribers.

No one every asks him about that.

Joey

Anonymous said...

Thanks Honey for the info looking forward to your next summary.

@Bondbull - to your question. I did likely Honey and sold my Ginnie Maes, and I split my Bond funds into half short term and half intermediate term using the Vanguard Index Funds which is where I have held my Bond Portfolio. I have Individual tips I purchased before yields went negative. Unless interest rates spike up dramatically I think the intermediate Bond Fund will be okay I hope as it turns over its bond to higher yields. I have always been leery with the TIPs funds. Vanguards intermediate bond fund is 40% treasuries but no TIPs which I don't really like but it served me well last year. Vanguard does not really have a managed intermediate corporate bond fund that I am aware of and at this juncture I would prefer.

On another note, I am reading a book called "The End of the Euro" which gives a history of the Euro and talks about its eventual demise. It wasa bad idea from the start. 14% of our exports are to Europe, but if it breaks up, it could be devastating. This to me is very troublesome. Does this worry anyone else? And what are people doing to protect themselves if anything? The one thing I am doing is to make sure I have little European exposure. Anyone else worried? Or do we just grit our teeth while the market drops to the mid 6000 again.

Mark

Notmonalisa said...

I still have most of the money I invested in GNMA's back in the '80's and moving forward. Mostly because I could not see which bond funds might be better or safer in the long run. In my view, it all depends on your time horizon. Or maybe there something I'm missing? Isn't this what Bob calls a "move-able feast?"
Which I interpret as meaning that NAV values adjust as rates move up or down.
I would appreciate your comments on this subject.
You might be interested in a conversation between Rebecca Katz and Christopher Phillips on the Vanguard website under "Insights."
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/video/2093-EX4-BondsPortfolio?opentranscript=true
~Notmonalisa

Kirk Lindstrom said...

YTD Returns as of 06/04/2012

Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv - VTSMX +2.39%

GNMA Fund Investor Shares - VFIIX +1.58%

REIT Index Fund Inv - VGSIX +5.37%

Inflation-Protect Sec Inv (TIPS) - VIPSX +5.01%

Total Bond Mkt Index Inv - VBMFX +2.46%

Anonymous said...

Kirk, are those YTD numbers with dividends re-invested?