A secular bear or bull market is a long-term -- 20 year+ stock market trend. The last time that Brinker wrote about the secular trend was in April, 2011, Marketimer, Brinker wrote: "The stock market has entered the twelfth year of the secular bear megatrend that began in March of Year 2000....In our view, the absolute low for the current secular bear megatrend occurred during the banking scare in March of 2009.....One of the key characteristics of a secular bear megatrend is the fact that the market is unable to achieve and maintain meaningful new historic high price levels."
A cyclical bull market is a shorter-term rising stock market, which operates within the secular trend.
Currently, Brinker is reporting that the market is still in a cyclical bull, but in the June 2012 issue of Marketimer, he said: "In our view, the stock market is in the fourth year of a cyclical bull market that may be getting long in the tooth. Although, we expect to see further gains in the S&P 500 Index going forward...We fully expect the current cyclical bull market to be followed by another cyclical bear market.....In our view, it will not begin within the next several months."
I posted David Korn's personal review of Bob Brinker's 5-root causes of a bear market last week. David's conclusions were the same as Brinker's were in the June issue of Marketimer -- none of the primary causes of a bear market are negative at this time.
Keep in mind that Brinker has never correctly identified a bear market (of any kind). He was partially correct in year-2000 when he went to 65% cash for the ensuing bear market, but he has remained 100% fully invested since he returned all model portfolio cash reserves to equities in March 2003. He completely missed the 2008-2009 megabear market and several corrections since then.
So there is very little reason to believe that Brinker will successfully call a major market downturn -- and he doesn't even try to call 10 or 20% corrections. He's on record saying you should never sell into weakness, so what are the chances that he will be able to tell when the cyclical bull changes to a cyclical bear?
For a complete history of Brinker's secular/cyclical market-timing history go here.
17 comments:
"Keep in mind that Brinker has never correctly identified a bear market (of any kind)."
That is not true. If you are saying that you have to be out of the market 100% to correctly call a bear then you are crazy.
Show me ONE professional person like Brinker who has gone totally to cash in a bear market.
Chico,
Many financial planners go completely to cash in anticipation of a bear market.
Elaine Garzarelli was in cash BEFORE the 1987 crash. Brinker was a roaring bull, until a couple of months AFTER the crash. That is the only time he went to 100% cash and lost out on a lot of market gains before getting fully invested again.
You'll have to do you own research, but believe me, it happens all the time, There were some on CNBC just last week.
Oh and BTW: Brinker did not acknowledged that the market was actually bearish in 2000 until August. Before that he was just being cautious -- he said.
Elaine Garzarelli is a one-hit wonder who blew it after that one hit. She blamed it on something or somebody else but she coulnd't give away her rag after that.
"Meredith Whitney joins a long list of market disaster forecasters that shined bright for a brief moment, only to fall in esteem when the next predicted catastrophe didn't happen. For example, market timer Joseph Granville achieved near legendary status among individual investors by correctly pegging the 1977-78 bear market. His reputation suffered after wrongly predicting a market crash1982, the year that marked the start of the Reagan bull market. Elaine Garzarelli had a brief flirt with fame after successfully calling the 1987 stock market crash, but missed calls took their inevitable toll on her status as market guru.'
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/your-money/makin-money/market-timing-hard-really-hard
Chico A said:
Show me ONE professional person like Brinker who has gone totally to cash in a bear market.
In the 1990's Brinker said repeatedly if he ever felt sure we were entering a bear market he WOULD go to 100% cash. He said he even may go short. So in 2000 either he wasn't sure, or he was lying.
In reading Honey's post it sounds like Brinker is setting himself up for another method of trying to have his cake and eat it to. If a bear should ensue and the market gets mauled he will use bits and pieces of this, in the context of planted callers to create the illusion that he saw the bear coming and made a call on the market.
I can hear the call now.
Bob: "Let's go to Marv in liar city utah."
Marv: "Hi Bob, I have been a market timer subscriber for 40 years. I just wanted to thank you for all you have done for so many. I took the advice you had in the June 2012 issue of market timer and got 100% out of stocks and want into a ultra triple short fund. Thanks to you I now have a net worth of 4.5 Million. When I get up in the morning, I thank god for Bob Brinker. thanks again Bob, you are a great American".
Bob: Well, you only have yourself to thank. I congratulate you on becoming your own personal financial advisory. And for our listeners, Marv was referring to the June 2012 issue of market timer. That is the instrument we use to advise our subscribers for timely changes to the overall market conditions. Marv reacted to what was written in market timer and made a personal decision to act on that information, which turned out to be very profitably indeed. Now let's got to Mary, in San Bernandino Valley, Mary welcome to money talk...."
And so it goes on...
tfb
Show me ONE professional person
Brinker is not a financial professional, he does not belong to a professional organization that awards designation, can repeal them, and subjugate him to disciplinary action. He is a hack.
All Brinker amounts to is a salesman peddling snake oil as a cure all for what ails you. He operates in the same unregulated markets as people peddling penis enlargement, herbal remedies, and baldness cures.
They all follow the same formula, some testimonial from some goober who attributes their success to a wonder product.
Please...really, Brinker a professional. PosTVac anyone?
tfb
LMAO @ tfb's last two posts!
"Brinker is not a financial professional, he does not belong to a professional organization that awards designation, can repeal them, and subjugate him to disciplinary action. He is a hack."
Maybe so. Would you put Elaine Garzarelli in that group and all the other financial planners who go completely to cash in anticipation of a bear market?
Maybe so. Would you put Elaine Garzarelli in that group and all the other financial planners who go completely to cash in anticipation of a bear market?
I would have to find out if the are accredited by any professional organization. Remember when you are a member of a profession you are required to demonstrate a level of skill and proficiency, are awarded accreditation or certification, have continuing education and requirement, can be examined by a board of peers for competency, and can have your licensing/accreditation revoked for either incompetence or ethical violation.
To the best of my knowledge Brinker does not belong to any financial related profession.
Contrast that to someone like Alexander Paris, who is a CFA and use to make clear non-ambiguous stock recommendations via his newsletter and give clear economic advice (I say use to because I have not subscribed in a number of years) and stands(or stood) on his record without embellishment.
tfb
If you remember right before the 2008 crash, Brinker said the bear trend was over and we started a new bull phase.
Curses - those that have memories.
Joey
Chico A ask:
"Show me ONE professional person like Brinker who has gone totally to cash in a bear market"
OK, Damon Vickers. He got completely out of the stock market in March 2000. He even went short on various stocks. He hosts a radio program and he is a market timer. He has been right on some occasions and wrong on others. He failed to re-enter the market at the bottom in 2003.
"Damon Vickers was one of the very few to call the top of the bull market in March 2000. He predicted the dot-com collapse. He warned investors about Enron."
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110216035726AAZN1Wk
"I would have to find out if the are accredited by any professional organization. Remember when you are a member of a profession you are required to demonstrate a level of skill and proficiency, are awarded accreditation or certification, have continuing education and requirement, can be examined by a board of peers for competency, and can have your licensing/accreditation revoked for either incompetence or ethical violation."
Oh so you are saying that market timing IS possible, as long as you belong to some professional group.
A CFA certification does not prevent lousy market calls IMO.
Salo
"OK, Damon Vickers. He got completely out of the stock market in March 2000. He even went short on various stocks. He hosts a radio program and he is a market timer. He has been right on some occasions and wrong on others. He failed to re-enter the market at the bottom in 2003."
OK, won some lose some like a coin toss I guess.
Does he go in or out 100% whenever me makes a market call and what is his total success rate?
I never heard of him but that's just me. And the tfb says he has to have some sort of a professional designation to be take seriously.
I see he did sell music for Manny's Music and lived in his car for a while but that doesn't count I think.
Salo
Oh so you are saying that market timing IS possible, as long as you belong to some professional group.
Clearly that is not what I am saying. You are simply trying to take the focus off the fact Brinker is not a financial professional.
He is simply some salesmen who has managed to convince a bunch of rubes that fairies are dancing on a pinhead.
And off course you can time the market, the trick is whether you are successful. Clearly Brinker has not been. To date no one has been recognized as having demonstrated a market timing system that works.
Many people purport single instances of successful market timing, but invariably the signals fail and they end up on the wrong side of a trade like Brinker did when he bailed after the 1987 crash and forgoes all that gains till he re-entered the market.
But don't feel bad about getting mislead by an occasional sighting of market timing, people also occasionally see BigFoot. Interestingly, both market timing and BigFoot proponents have about the same amount tangible evidence on their side.
One group hangs out at cocktail parties sipping martinis and talking about the time a guy they heard of bailed out of the market at a peak and got in at a low and another hangs out around the campfire drinking beer and talking about the time a guy they know encounter Sasquatch. From a realism standpoint it is even money on which group has more credibility. Personally I am a Loch Ness monster type of guy.
tfb
"To date no one has been recognized as having demonstrated a market timing system that works.
Many people purport single instances of successful market timing, but invariably the signals fail and they end up on the wrong side of a trade like Brinker did when he bailed after the 1987 crash and forgoes all that gains till he re-entered the market."
OK tfb, I get it.
So Bob Brinker, Elaine Garzarelli and all of those financial planners who go completely to cash ahead of a bear market that HB talks about can NOT time the market! Period. It can't be done.
And if a huckster happens to have a CFA or other professional designation that you seem to like...that's doesn't make a bit of difference either because NOBODY can time the market.
Anybody who says they can time the market is a liar or a fraud or both.
Thanks tfb, I get it now.
Salo
Anybody who says they can time the market is a liar or a fraud or both.
I assume you mean successfully time the market. Anyone can time it. Nope, close but there are other possibilities( the enumeration below is likely not comprehensive).
1) They are using asset allocation with a rebalance, WHICH IS market timing and a strategy that appears to work and has a wide, wide body of academic support.
2) They use market timing for a single stock to determine an entry point for an entry into a long term holding (the few people that have studied this have all had statistically flawed studies, but the area looks promising).
3) The obvious, they are delusional (likely).
4) The are ignorant (likely).
5) They can time the market and are keeping their mouth shut less the market become efficient in regard to their methodology. (possibly and I would think likely)
6) They can develop a one or two hit wonder, then other models note it and adjust (extremely likely).
Lastly, I have no particular love of designation, I am merely pointing out that accreditation, the ability to revoke the accreditation and sanction an individual is the hallmark of a profession.
tfb
My thought is: Those who can successfully time the market, do. Those who can't, say nobody can!
Oh yeah, I'm now long 500 DDM...and doing well, thank you!
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