HONEY'S FULL UPDATE ON BRINKER'S LATEST STOCK MARKET ADVICE
This week's numbers: Friday, July 6, 2018. Dow closed at 24,456.48; S&P 500 Index closed at 2759.82; Nasdaq closed at 7688.39. (Last week: S&P 500 = 2718.37; Dow = 24,271.41; Nasdaq = 7501.30)
So we see that as the time-distance from the February correction low keeps growing, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq keep climbing.
Since February, Bob Brinker has been looking for the S&P to test the February 2018 10.1% correction low so he can proclaim a "buying opportunity" - without raising any cash to take advantage of it.
In the July 2018 issue of Marketimer, Brinker explains that most off-presidential year corrections usually happen in the second half of the year - most likely in October. In the meantime, his advice (as usual) is to dollar-cost-average new money - all Marketimer portfolios are fully invested.
However, if 2018 goes by without any further corrections, then he says the "door opens" for him to "shift the risk" to 2019, and begin looking for a "buying opportunity" next year.
So what that means in a nutshell in Honey's own words: The stock market fluctuates. And Brinker will tell you after the fact if it declined 10%, 20% or goes into a full blown bear. But in my opinion, he will never again raise cash to prepare for it. The last time he raised cash before a market decline was in year-2000.
FINANCIAL MARKET REPORTS FROM CHARLES SCHWAB
STOCK MARKET:
U.S. stocks finished the final trading session of the holiday-shortened week higher, courtesy of the June labor report that seemed to tamp down some concerns of a possible acceleration to the Fed's rate hike campaign. Some upbeat economic data aided in countering the tension in regard to global trade as the U.S. implemented its previously announced tariffs on China, which immediately retaliated with levies of its own. Treasury yields dipped and the U.S. dollar was also lower, while crude oil prices were mixed and gold experienced a minor decline.
TRADE:
The trade balance showed that the deficit shrunk more than expected to $43.1 billion in May, compared to forecasts of $43.6 billion. April's deficit was revised lower to $46.1 billion. Exports were up 1.9% m/m at $215.3 billion, while imports increased 0.4% to $258.4 billion.
TREASURIES:
Treasuries ticked higher, with the yields on the 2-year note and the 30-year bond dipping 1 basis point (bp) to 2.54% and 2.93%, respectively, while the yield on the 10-year note was nearly unchanged at 2.82%.
TALKOFCONNECTICUT;
108 comments:
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Bob Brinker presenting Moneytalk as a live show to his listeners, subscribers and Moneytalk-on-demand followers, with no announcement that it is all pre-recorded and calls that have already been broadcast.
While doing that, in one of his old monologues, he got on his biased moral high-horse and slammed better men than himself.
I'd be interested in knowing if anyone reading this blog pays for all these reruns - some of them actually reruns of reruns:
Bob Brinker's Moneytalk:
May 13: Reruns
May 27: Reruns
June 17: Reruns
July 1: Reruns
July 8: Reruns
In my humble opinion, Brinker is a fake, phony and fraud. How does he collect a paycheck from Cumulus Media with a clear conscience when he doesn’t even work? Anywhere else would fire him for administrative theft. Jake
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Please note: I do not publish notes from "anonymous" - well mebbe 1%.
But waste your time writing them, if you like.
The starship "MoneyTalk" is stuck in the time warp again.
I know everybody on here gets upset when Bob isn't live but I really don't think it's a big deal, even if it's not announced that he's not live. I don't see it as being fake, phony or fraudulent. Always can learn something even if they are old calls. Just my 2 cents. Stay happy people:)
My local station (WNIS)has booted Bob out of the live spot 4-7 local. Bob has been replaced by a local lawyer/restaurant owner/chef talk show. Bob,(like Clark Howard, Art Bell, etc.) is now being taped for later broadcast/re-broadcast as "filler".
Thanks to HB and her bloggers. Your work is very much appreciated.
Perhaps THAT Bob should consider gutting the few live shows he does and moving all of the reruns to Sirius XM Radio Classics.
He could build more airtime inventory by chopping the reruns into Sunday 30 minute or one hour segments (depending on the availability of station programming time).
If he could buy a slot right after "Fibber McGee & Molly" that would be very cool.
https://goo.gl/nRgcjM
JC
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Angie....You are entitled to your opinion, although I think you have said that same thing many times.
One would have to live in a cave to not be aware that it is a common courtesy, and a show of respect and HONESTY, to announce when a show is a rerun, best of, or composite of prior shows.
There may be a rare exception, but no one who does a radio talk show pretends the show is live.
And finally, I have said repeatedly that I don't care if Brinker takes time off. I only care about his shyster tactics of not announcing it before, during or after.
And one more final: As long as I do this blog, I will ALWAYS announce when Brinker is pulling his rerun scam.
Well in Bobs defense there is allot of people cashing checks for doing nothing or close to it. As far as a clear conscience goes those are hard to find in these times. Probably Bogle & Buffet are the only high profile people you'd want to give any consideration to.
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J Wales...Interesting that you are willing to "defend" Brinker because there are others who do dishonest things.
Also interesting that you hang out at this blog since you think that Bogle and Buffett are the only ones worth "considering."
Interesting, but not encouraging to see such low standards of integrity.
Kudos to Honey and her repeated comments on Bob's unannounced cut and past jobs. I don't know why the deception doesn't seem to bother people.
As expected, Rice Delman's show this morning was announced UP FRONT that it was previously recorded.
I just check in from time to time. Glad Bobby not changing his ways of deceit. I am getting older and could be fooled. HA. I have been enjoying Boglehead forum. Great info and I found Stinky over there who posts here some. Turns out he is about 15 miles from me. SMALL WORLD.
A LONG time ago BB highlighted "retiring in place." Keep going to work but don't put much effort into it? I never understood exactly what he meant by that term. Could be he is taking his own advice and has been doing for a while since these repeat shows ramped up.
He has pointed out that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have more money than they can possibly spend, yet they keep going to work because they like what they're doing. In Gate's case it is his foundation.
Maybe BB keeps "going to work," but it is on his own terms, i.e., as Captain of the Starship Moneytalk he can snooze in his stateroom while it is on autopilot so he has retired in place.
As a long time listener, I think the calls have fallen into a rut. Asset allocation, annuitize or take the lump sum, take money from a retirement account to pay down a mortgage, bond fund questions leading to a discussion of duration...
(Answers: usually 50-50; usually take the lump sum; NO; ultra short duration or CDs.)
I think it is a function of the demographics of the listeners. Maybe they've been there with the show for a long time and they've made their dough, now they're faced with the distribution phase. (In case you didn't notice I used "there", "their" and "they're" in the same sentence. The English language is great isn't it?")
Stations carrying the show might start to drop off but only if they detect an erosion of listeners. (And that is all I know about the radio business.) Only avid listeners or followers of this website would realize that a large number of shows are repeats. Those are the people who probably don't NEED to listen for his advice -- in fact, they are probably capable of fielding many of the questions asked by callers.
What is the size of the lump sum payout?
How much is the monthly annuity alternative.
Are they monthly amounts indexed for inflation?
(quick calculation of percent return)
Not counting this lump sum, what is your net worth?
Do you need this addt'l monthly income to live on?
What plans do you have for your assets when you pass on? Heirs, kids, grandkids?
I think the big gripe on the repeat shows is what it has always been: a lack of honesty that it IS a repeat show. Simple as that.
Not defending bob , but he is in his 74 I think. Maybe he has health issues. Still should state repeator get guest host
Yeah defend is probably not the right word. I was attempting to be sarcastic to an extent. I do own some Ibonds that I like due to him making me aware of them. I hang here because theres excellent knowlege from other posters. I'm not big on holding grudges. I have no interest in fueds. I also try to keep clear of people with axes to grind. But everyone is different & I try not to judge. So I hope you'll let me post on your blog. I try to keep clear of hot button issues I know of.
RE: Bob's birthday.... Bob will be 77 on October 1st !
Hey, a couple of 7's for a Part Time Las Vegas resident are lucky numbers!
If you're around the Sprouts Farmers Market in Henderson, Nevada you may be able to wish him a Happy Birthday. I am told he's a regular!!
Glad Bobby not changing his ways of deceit.
In some ways I have changed my view on Da Brink. In reflection I am not sure Da Brink is being so much purposefully deceitful as is the case that he is so devoid of a moral compass, or a sense of right or wrong that he simply does not know the difference.
In that way he reminds of Bill Clinton. Bill simply has no moral compass, he genuinely does not understand right from wrong. You can contrast that with Hillary, whom knows the difference between right and wrong, she just thinks she is personally above judgement of her actions, and to her the end (her own benefit) justifies the means.
I think Da Brink is far more like Bill than Hillary; I really do not believe he has an ethical compass. When you look at the things Da Brink has done in forums and over the radio over the years and then reflect on the fact that he bills himself as America's most trusted financial ad visor, you really have to question if he truly knows right from wrong. I truly do not believe he does.
My opinion.
Honeybee:
The message below was not posted by me.
It was posted by the creepy, lovelorn, mommas boy and snot nosed-pretender.
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Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...
I don't mind the reruns. I might have missed something the first time round.
JC
July 8, 2018 at 3:21 PM
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JC
On a serious note, I wish to express my extreme displeasure with Frankj's usage of there, their, and they're in the same sentence. This ridiculous repetition is beneath the quality of this blog. Should this redundancy continue I will have no choice but to choose previously chosen websites for my participation.
Birdbrain, your right. I was out of line.
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So Birdbrain...Now that we know Frankj is human (see his last post), shall we just give him probation?
To answer Honey's question: Yes, I subscribe to MoneyTalk On Demand.
It's $4.95 per month automatically ripped from my Discover card. Thankfully the fee hasn't risen during the 5+ years of cut-n-paste programs.
I don't listen to every hour, whether it be live or Memorex. Used to try that but with the years comes life priorities that are much more important.
Plus, as Frankj suggests, I know all the answers by now, except for one: How does Bob corral so many Critical Mass millionaire-callers for his re-run shows while he languishes in the pool?
Oh, I forgot, it just requires a splice and a dice to keep his world running.
He is definitely ROAD (Retired On Active Duty) as they say in the services. But he might rationalize it as, "I worked hard to build the product which is now paying me back by carrying itself on auto-pilot, like a portfolio of bonds (short duration)."
In that regard, he knows he's not gonna live forever so the show and the investment hype don't need the longevity of Zeus or Elvis, so they can be expected to wither and die at some point, all in the name of a relaxing cha-ching today.
And, no, I am not his psychiatrist.
Complaining about repetition with choice, choose, chosen?
Yet another attempt at lame humor gone awry.
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Birdbrain...You went wrong on that awry attempt at humor when you left out "chose."
Try again. :)
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Dr. Tam O'Shanter….You are correct and here's why:
If Brinker lives up to what he preaches about his "young sprouts," he has now paid in full for all grandchildren, nieces, nephews, and possible great-grandchildren's full college educations.
We (I mean me and some old Brinker-bots) know for a fact that he paid in full for his own three kid's college educations.
But you only forgot one thing. Bob Jr was educated in the computer/IT field and left it to write a knock-off "fixed income investment letter" in 2005. He stopped calling himself BobJr and started using Marketimer address and calling himself simply, "Bob Brinker." He makes about 95% of his subscribers think that it is good-'ol dad's.
So Brinker Sr. continues to keep the family name in the public eye at his mature age so that Jr can run ads during Moneytalk alongside Marketimer ads. Dad's have gotta do what Dad's gotta do, you know. :)
frank wrote: "Birdbrain, your right. I was out of line."
Should be "you're."
Who will be present to present the presents?
How did you determine these were better men then Bob?
That is your opinion, not sure how humble
I cant help but agree that it would be a good policy for Bob to announce if he will be taking the week off. I love listening to the guy so it wouldn't matter that much to me. The only time it upsets me is if the markets are in turmoil and I need to hear a rational voice
Can someone recommend a better radio program or podcast?
The day will come when Bob can't or won't be broadcasting anymore and I'm not looking forward to it
Well put, Honey.
You ascribed the totality of the big picture to its fullest extent. So now we know, the BB brand may never go away. It's valuable enough to battle-bot for. (That's ro-butts to Sr.)
Kick me in the butt as I kick myself in the head.
I get the fact that Jr. glommed onto the business model. It must be lucrative or why would... Hey, if the whole shenanigans feeds the whole family, "This Way To The Egress".
In other words, it's a Barnum & Bailey show, so buyer beware. But a cliché matinee is boring, so simply said, Jr.'s rag is available on the i-net and it's uninspiring.
Same pap and freely available gov-provided stats. But if Charlie in KC and Al in Albany keep buying it, the revenues might outweigh the expenditures.
Thus, in money-making terms, he's too legit to quit.
Tom Burnett said regarding Bob not being on live: "The only time it upsets me is if the markets are in turmoil and I need to hear a rational voice."
How did that work out the last time, in 2008-2009, when all he did was re-arrange the deck chairs on the Starship Moneytalk?
Jack Bogle has the best advice: "Don't just do something, stand there!"
Ah, the use of "your" was intentional.
Someone asked about alternative shows, here is a link: https://www.jillonmoney.com/blog?category=Listen
Jill on Money. As smart as Bob, nicer to the callers, not selling a newsletter, tends to spend more time with callers, podcasts available.
Thanks Frank, I was wondering if you did that on purpose or not. But regardless, I had to pile on.
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Let me go on record saying that I absolutely knew that Frankj did that deliberately - and hilariously.
I have read too much of his writing to think that he would make a mistake like that.
Would I? You betcha. Frankj? Never. :)
John from SF said:
It would be interesting if someone called in and thanked Bob Brinker for being on the radio every week for us and asking how he does it without every missing a program year round, every year, year after year. In the old days he had substitute hosts for a number of weeksends during the year, but no more. Would he let us in on the secret to continuous health?
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John from SF: That is a brilliant idea. Anybody game to do it?
I'd do it, but I am too busy taking notes, etc. during the show to hang on the phone - even if I could get through the busy signal which is all I have gotten for years.
I think it's a distinct possibility my phone number is blocked, as BobJr. did to me on Twitter - at the beginning - and I never once sent him a Tweet.
Not a 100% assurance, but I would assume that there is a 7 second (or longer) broadcast delay on the few live shows that we get to experience.
https://goo.gl/KLviVn
JC ⓴ῷ
Hi. I've been pondering my thoughts lately, but since Tom Burnette has commented, I will too. - I owe so much to Bob Brinker. So much so that I can't describe it in words, but I will try. I've been listening to Bob Brinker since 93. I am fundamentally a Boglehead investor. But I would never have known about John Bogle, Charley Ellis, and Burton Malkiel if it weren't for Bob Brinker. Yes, I would have of course, but not in course of time where I would have been able to arrive early in the Land of Critical Mass. Most of you, no doubt, have been listening to Bob for just as long, if not longer, and most of you, no doubt, are firmly established in the Land of Critical Mass. I want my fellow Starship passengers to do me a favor. It won't take long. Bob will probably get mad at me for this, but it has to be said. Most of you know how to go back years and listen to Moneytalk. - On the 12/27/15 Moneytalk program, 11pm hour, at 14:55, Bob Brinker gives a 7 minute talk on Critical Mass, the importance of time, and life itself. Off the cuff! I'm a well-educated man, but these 7 minutes are the most influential and inspirational 7 minutes of my life. I wish Bob would have given this little speech a decade earlier. Why don't you take a listen, then sit back and think about things. Yes, you are right, Tom Burnette, one of these days, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk will not be on the radio anymore and it will be a very sad day, at least for me and you.
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Victor Ivanoff, or anyone: Exactly how do you "go back years and listen o Moneytalk"?
Uncle Mark - you asked about other podcasts. I’ve liked Money For The Rest of Us by David Stein. His weekly free podcast is good, and there are now over 200 episodes available. For me, his “Plus” service is even better - about the same cost as “full” Brinker at something like $250 per year, and with that you get weekly bonus podcasts and frequent (at least monthly) detailed updates on market conditions. I’ve totally dropped Brinker except for the HB updates and the chatter from the good folks on this blog.
House Doc - yes, turns out that we’re almost neighbors. I’m a lot more active now on the Bogleheads site, except when I’m defending Honeybee’s honor over at Morningstar.
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Victor Ivanoff...Bob Brinker has done those Land of Critical Mass speeches so many times that I don't always cover them. Here is one that easily popped up in a search on my Moneytalk Summaries of June 15, 2011:
LAND OF CRITICAL MASS: Brinker said: "When you are in the land of critical mass, you are the master of your finances and your life because you don't have to go out and work for da man. Now as you know, there are people who are clearly residing in the land of critical mass and they go to work every day. Warren Buffett is probably the best example out there. Here's a guy, who despite his 80th birthday, is out there working pretty much every day. Why? Because he likes it. He wants to do it.
Hey, it's his life. If he wants to work into his 80's, so be it. It's his decision. It's a personal decision. It's not for you or for me to make any comments about what somebody wants to do in terms of continuing to work.....He's working for sport. He's working for personal gratification....And that's what critical mass is all about. It gives you the personal freedom so that you can choose how you wish to spend your time......I admire people who get themselves in a position - through hard work - that they can do what they want to do......What's the most precious asset out there? It's not money. Time is the most precious asset out there....You can't buy it. It's not for sale."
Honeys Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz3
Yes, I’ve called Brinker a time or two. Yes, there is a delay, and it’s a lot more than 7 seconds. Maybe 30 seconds or so when I called n
Hi Honeybee. Victor Ivanoff here. KABC podcasts.
Hi Honeybee. KABC podcasts.
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Another market rally today.
DJIA
24,776.59 +320.11 (+1.29%)
NASDAQ
7,756.20 +67.81 (+0.87%)
S&P 500
2,784.17 +24.35 (+0.88%)
Both the stock market and bond market must have Brinker scratching his head a bit right now. I think Brinker felt that the escalation of trade war fears would cause the stock market to either retest the lows or go even lower, which thus far has not happened. I wouldn't mind having some of those QQQ shares right now.
I also think he felt all these interest rate hikes would push bond yields much higher by now. He mentioned that the 10 year should be around 4.5% figuring 2.5% GDP+2% inflation. Thus far the 10 year can't even make it above 3%, so I don't see 4.5% anytime soon.
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Thank you for coming to my defense on Morningstar, Stinky!
Those Brinker's and Brinker-bots get cranky with me.
I have no idea why. do you? :)
Honeybee, I have no idea why some people on Morningstar get so cranky when Brinker's name comes up. All that I try to do is point out the truth about Brinker - his recorded shows, his deceit in calling his newsletter "Marketimer" when he hasn't raised cash since 2000, etc.
When you weigh in on M*, you get attacked as a "troll", which we all know that you aren't.
I half wonder whether some of M* posters are Brinker, Brinker Jr., spouses, nieces and nephews, etc. They just reflexively defend Brinker whenever someone has the audacity to tell the truth.
If I get to feeling ornery in the next few days, I might just re-start the M* thread on Brinker, pointing out that he's now been recorded more times than he's been live since May 13. Five times recorded, four times live. Maybe that will shake some nuts off the trees.
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Go for it, Stinky!
Let me know when you do it and I'll "troll" on over and back you up. :)
Honey: Did you recently post on MS?
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Bluce...No I didn't. Why do you ask?
Honey wrote: Thank you for coming to my defense on Morningstar, Stinky!
Those Brinker's and Brinker-bots get cranky with me.
From your post, I was thinking you'd recently posted on the Brinker thread, or that you had made a new thread on MS or something. Then I read Stinky's post about maybe reviving the original Brinker thread.
So, I didn't really know what was going on.
I half wonder whether some of M* posters are Brinker, Brinker Jr., spouses, nieces and nephews, etc. They just reflexively defend Brinker whenever someone has the audacity to tell the truth.
My guess is, knowing how duplicitous both Da Brink and Binkey Jr are they hired this out to India, Costa Rica, Panama, Vietnam. You can buy a forum monitoring package a token fee. In those packages you get a number of "posters" who will support whatever position you want. A lot businesses use them on review forums and bulletin boards.
I suspect at times that happens in this forum based on some of the ridiculous pro-Brinker posts that appear.
Here is the simple truth, Brinker is an icky guy. He is a creep. He has an abrasive personality. He is the type of guy women live their adult life in fear of their sons growing up to be. Given he does nothing for anyone other than himself, lies endlessly, and has a caustic personality it goes beyond common sense to imagine anyone without a vested interest defending him.
Hence the logical conclusion to draw is, he hires it out. It is cheap enough to do.
tfb
natasha here for frankj and stinky and all
Thankyou. I am listening to https://www.jillonmoney.com/blog?category=Listen
and really enjoying it.
I will also try Money For The Rest of Us by David Stein
Merci beaucoup monsieurs
I think tfb should start listening to Dave Ramsey!
Honeybee,
I just posted about Brinker over at Morningstar.
Let's see if the haters come out.
Bluce, I enjoy listening to Ric Edelman now and then. I used to be an avid listener of his. I read a couple of his books and attended one of his seminars. I don't agree with him on everything. Nonetheless I have found his advice to be beneficial.
I had a sit down with one of his advisers about investing through his firm. But his fees are too high. I decided to go it alone using advice from Edelman, Bogle, Brinker and others while saving myself a lot of money.
You might even say you will have no choice but to choose previously chosen websites as your chosen choice.
MK: I listen to Rice every Sunday morning. His advice is good (don't try to time the market, etc.) plus there isn't anything else going on during that time.
That's interesting that his fees are high. I'm assuming he charges a percentage of AUM. I've never figured out that scam because it doesn't take any more knowledge, work, or skill to manage a $1M portfolio than it does to manage a $50k portfolio. The fee should be flat.
Like you I've done it on my own, learned as I went, and read constantly. It became a hobby (or an obsession?) because I'm self-employed and will have no other income aside from SS -- so I take all this pretty seriously.
Having reached CM, and looking at my 68th birthday next month (although still working), my biggest concern now is what to do when I get senile and cannot manage it myself.
Futures are not looking good, as I post:
DOW, NAZ and S&P are all down nearly 1% at 5:15 EST
Market is quite nervous again due to renewed "Trade War" concerns.
Several weeks ago President Trump came up with the very best solution, i.e. abolish tariffs, but it seems no one was listening.
From IBD:
Trump Trade War: A $200 Billion Escalation?
Markets added a fourth straight gain Tuesday amid a reprieve from trade-war fears as global markets awaited the impact of tariffs launched Friday between the U.S. and China. But worries arose late Tuesday on news that the Trump administration was taking steps toward escalating the war from $34 billion in products on both side, with an additional $16 billion potentially set to take effect later this month. With the $200 billion surfacing Tuesday, it would add up to $250 billion in imports under tariffs.
Stock futures slipped and bonds crept higher, sending the 10-year U.S. treasury yield down 1 basis point to 2.85%. President Trump has made it clear that the U.S. has more than $500 billion in potential tariff targets it is willing to put into play against China.
Bloomberg reported that the list of expanded tariffs could be released as early as Tuesday, and would then go through a period of review and public comment.
JC
₦ ⓱ ⅎ
Bluce said...
MK: I listen to Rice every Sunday morning. His advice is good (don't try to time the market, etc.) plus there isn't anything else going on during that time.
That's interesting that his fees are high. I'm assuming he charges a percentage of AUM. I've never figured out that scam because it doesn't take any more knowledge, work, or skill to manage a $1M portfolio than it does to manage a $50k portfolio. The fee should be flat.
I am not sure if you are talking about pure investments advice or financial planning. And even if it narrowly focused on investments there usually is a heck of a lot of difference between people who have 500K-2.5 million ad these who have 2.5 to 5 million. The latter likely have stocks, 401K plans IRA or ROTH IRAs or both and fully taxable accounts.
And a lot of 50 somethings have a great deal of disparate investment account types. That can complicate legacy issues. you also then, need to consider that the heirs financial picture is or will likely to be. For example is it advisable for you to convert your assets to a ROTH when your children might be bale to inherit the account and pay their lower tax rate or maybe not.
Heck ROTH IRAs did not exist until 1997. So suckers like me delayed paying our taxes in a traditional IRA and now will likely will have to pay higher taxes taking it out. My point is a good investment counselor will look at your sources and advise you. They will extrapolate where you may end up and steer you account types accordingly. Tax loss harvesting is another consideration but also is related to the likely disposition of your assets. For example if you tax loss harvest and rebuy another position you may just have set your cost basis much lower than it was. Which may or may not bite yo depending on if you ever realize the gain or pass it to your heirs to get a stepped up cost basis. Once again that should be part of an advisor's focus.
Just sayin' it may not be as plain vanilla as you think.
Honey has thrown down the gauntlet! ("elsewhere")
Let's see if the Blinker shill picks it up.
Bunny: I was only thinking of portfolio management, not an overall financial plan as you described. I'm on the edge of that now, and keep avoiding it because I don't want to deal with it.
Yes, real smart, I know.
Honeybee,
Just wondering...Lately, we haven't seen any communiqués from our dearest Free-Range Bacon Boy.
Do you know if he will he be favoring us with any of his vast array of financial advisories anytime soon?
JC Æ❷©
Jerrod: Last I knew, our Beloved Bacon Boy was still counting the massive profits he made from following Brinker's QQQ call in 2000-something.
Plus, according to his latest communique to me, he's busy writing up endless Morningstar posts, praising Blinker for all his great advice -- especially the call to get out in September 2007 and buy back in in March 2009.
I tell ya, that Bacon Boy is as happy as a pig in . . . well, you know. ☺ ☻ ☺
The Market tanked today. Hopefully, tomorrow will be UP.
Gabe
The trade skirmish is like Greece was 5 years ago. More up coming it seems. Down never sticks. Lots smoke but fire is hard to come by. Mid term elections coming up. You know BB will stay invested & if theres a dip of any consequence the faithful will be buying. Whata ya think everybody?
J. Wales from Natasha here, what do you define as a dip if consequence, say, with the S&P from all time highs. Do you have a percentage in mind which would be when people buy? I am interested . Thanks.
I would recommend dollar cost averaging back into the market at S&P 2,000.
Of course that means you should be heavy in cash at the moment. As a retiree that has been fully invested for decades, I sold 70% last January and lock in 280% gain since 2009. Was holding total market index and small caps for the most part.
Merrier Kelly.
A 15-20% pull back from all time highs would be a good range to start biying if you can stand more exposure. But it looks like stocks will not pull back anytime soon. The so called trade war is keeping bullishness in check. S&P 3000 is coming sooner rather than later it would seem. Housing is incredibly strong. Hard to believe the powers in charge would kill the goose that lays golden eggs after 10 years of emergency actions by the fed. Theres no euphoria that I see. The federal debt might pop up as a concern but its a well known item. But my opinions don't mean diddly & everyone has one as they say.
Looks like the gains are gonna hold for the week. They'll reset the machines over the weekend.
Goldman sachs says they have trade war stocks. Sell what you have & buy those. Thats good for them. Buy sell
Honey, have you checked the MS thread lately? ☼ ۞
J Wales said...
A 15-20% pull back from all time highs would be a good range to start biying if you can stand more exposure.
Indeed, that likely works for many people. However, depending on certain variables, they may be missing opportunities by holding back for too long a time period. Every day it is possible to make money in the financial markets, but it can be very time consuming to do so.
I prefer to use a variety of technical indicators to review potential favorable risk/reward opportunities.
JC @ DŽ ⓮ ʤ
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Bluce….I took a look to see the latest Brinker-attack-dogs reply.
Same ol' stuff they've been spouting at me since I started reporting facts that Bob Brinker wants covered up.
They just lie, spin and make threats. I'm immune to them because my opinion of them is so low.
You would be reading the same crap here (and worse) if I published what they send here - I don't.
AMZN ceases to amaze me...Up 0.91%. MFST up 1.17%. I love em both!
Gabe
Agreed JC. I'm just blabbing about generalities. The markets look strong in general. The 2008/09 mess probably won't be repeated for 100 years. I'm a a Wellesley investor with CDs & Ibonds.
JC: That's pretty high; is it FDIC insured? ☻
Schwab article: What happened to the bond bear market?
I would like to hear a caller reference this article and ask Blinker's opinion on it.
I'm sure Bobby would give a very detailed and thoughtful response in his usual pleasant manner -- especially when someone points out how wrong he's been for over five years. I know he wouldn't trash the article -- after all, "Chuck is a friend of mine."
.
Bluce and all...I expect Bob Brinker to finally return to Moneytalk tomorrow. He probably will not be a happy camper.
The S&P 500 Index is back above 2800 and is only 2.91% below all time high.
The 10-year Treasury is still below 3% - 2.85.
Inflation, according to the CPI-U is at 2.87% - still below where it was at the end of WWII.
But! The big one - he still has almost 6 months to be right about his off-presidential correction and "buying-opportunity.
When I read the July Marketimer, it looked to me like he may be having some niggling doubts about it happening because he already laid out his plan to continue looking for it in 2019 if it doesn't happen. LOL!
Honeybee,
About Brinker's incredible success in calling market inflection points ("maybe later this year, maybe 2019") -
A stopped clock is right twice per day. Brinker is (probably) right at least twice per decade.
The delectable Hottiebee writes:
niggling
My reply:
Yep, now Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz will be listed at the Southern Poverty Law Centers site as a hate blog. - LOL!!!
Love,
tfb
Stinky wrote: A stopped clock is right twice per day. Brinker is (probably) right at least twice per decade.
FWIW, he's batting zero for the past decade. He completely missed the biggest bear since The Great Depression, and has completely missed trying to time interest rates for the past five years.
None the less, I'm doing okay because I'm niggardly with my money. ☺
A flattening yield curve. It is close in becoming an inverted yield curve and if that occurs......... Watch out.
Gabe
Dear Honey and readers,
Question ?
What is the best investment advice / information you have for investing for newborns ???
thanks in Advance, Tom in Vallejo
Honeybee,
More FAKE Posts Please delete. They are at bottom of this post.
And, I am making progress on identifying who this clodpate is.
If successful (it's just a matter of time) I will report him (in a different sequence than this) to:
- You
- His ISP
- Google/Blogger
- His local Police Department
- My local Police Department
- The FBI
- Homeland Security
- etc.
May he live in interesting times.
----------------------------------------------
Here are the TWO FRAUDULENT POSTS:
Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...
Honeybee,
I just bought a 4 year CD from a Canadian online bank yielding 4.6%.
JC @ π ¶ ¥
July 13, 2018 at 6:52 PM
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Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...
Greetings Bluce,
Canada offers cdic insurance. This is offered by The Royal Canadian Mounties. Remember like Dudley DoRight. He rode sidesaddle like me. LOL!
JC % √ £ ™
July 13, 2018 at 9:36 PM
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Honeybee,
Sorry for this mess and thanks once again for your help.
JC Ǣ ⓱ ȸ Ӝ
Blogger Stinky said...
Honeybee,
About Brinker's incredible success in calling market inflection points ("maybe later this year, maybe 2019") -
A stopped clock is right twice per day. Brinker is (probably) right at least twice per decade.
July 14, 2018 at 8:04 AM
--------------------------------------------
Stinky, just a quick question here:
Are either (or perhaps both) of those occurrences within the decade replays?
Tom in Vallejo: If I had a newborn grandbaby I would probably put 75% (give or take) in a total stock market fund/ETF and the rest in a total bond index fund/ETF. Or maybe all of it in one of the better balanced funds as with Vanguard, Janus, Oakmark, etc.
Tom in Vallejo: What is the objective? For higher education such as college I think the state 529 plan is best. Earnings are tax free. Withdrawals are tax free if used for qualified college expenses. You might get a deduction on your state return if you live in CA and invest in the state-sponsored plan.
What if the youngster doesn't go to college? I believe it can be used for vocational education, or, the account can be transferred to someone who intends to go to college. You control the account.
UGMAs and UTMAs are possible vehicles also but they have drawbacks. Earnings are taxable. The taxes may be modest at first being on the child's tax rate. But this does mean a return has to be filed for the child. And, if the earnings exceed a certain amount, the "kiddie" tax kicks in, which means the child's tax rate reflects the parent's tax rate. So, the parent's tax return has to be figured out -- then the child's return. Google search "kiddie tax," to see what the rules are.
Another disadvantage is the ownership of the account goes over to the child (young adult) at a certain age, like 19. Or check within your state. They can use the money for anything they want (Camaro, motorcycle, Tesla model 3, tattoos).
Within a 529 plan there should be a number of fund choices. Look for low cost funds. Be very careful with the choices that automatically re-balance from stocks to bonds/cash as the child approaches college age. What if the programmed re-balancing comes right after stocks have taken a dive? I think you're better off managing the account yourself and making sure you have adequate cash a couple years before it is needed, i.e., making the switch to cash at a time of your choosing.
www.savingforcollege.com is a good website.
Tom in V: You'd better listen to Frank. Mine was just the quicky Warren Buffet version.
Tom, since such a young child need not pay tax from earnings, which include investments, a typical investment may be attractive. Also, looking 20 to 30 years out the U.S. may suffer from the logistics of low birth rate, aging population, and high debt load. In addition, the country may swing toward toward the share the wealth attitude that seems to gaining in popularity, thanks to our tainted free education system. This contagain threat may lead you to invest in EM ETFs. Check out SCZ for example. Also, if your genetics suggest the child may grow up responsible and with some chutzpah to not follow the other sheep, you may just be providing the child with resources to manage into wealth at a very capable age.
Swab accounts- I read a piece on "free" trades, that they are not always a good deal. It was the thing the Bogle warns of in his Little Book. The underhanded tricks the financial businesses play that for some reason (crony capitalism) go unregulated.
The author picked on Swab, but it must be common practice. Swab's financials have a growing income from their "free" trade accounts. It seems they are masters at marketing and have learned a clever way to load these funds. The article claimed they more than made up for "free" trade cost. At the end of article, the comment was made that Vanguard choose not to play the game and maintains the traditional low load approach for marketing. You probably could google the article. It was not recent, just more info in which Bogle warned of. In Bogle's he mentioned about the only sure fire way to accurately know your true investment return was to run the account values yourself in a spreadsheet.
I left Fidelity fund because they just had to many questionable practices, in my opinion. Over decades the account value never matched the income reported. This is just subjective, but made me suspicious and less comfortable with the active fund. I read more and more of the practices these financial houses can legally utilize. What Bogle pulled off with Vanguard is truly amazing. We need to greatly appreciate his influence within financial industry.
Another thing I've been thinking over this week. You know how Bob Brinker has been preaching short term bonds. Also, to maximise return we know that 100% total stock market is not as good as a 90/10 portfolio due to the magic of rebalancing. So, what to think of the info on permanent portfolio investments that claim the sum total of the parts have more value? The strategy appears to be, to combine low correlation funds. This high diversification is attractive given the magic of rebalancing. Some of the portfolio will always be on sale and financed by the part of portfolio that is making money. This guarantees buy low sell high mechanics. Volatility is now your friend and the sum total of the parts makes the overall volatility much lower. The basic bond stock portfolio is prime example. The Wellesley and Wellington funds use this to advantage as many other funds.
It is amazing to review the success of some of these permanent portfolios over the decades. Not, that they all have high rate of return, but they can. Some are only interested in security and rock steady returns. One I'm interested in has six index funds. Whole U.S. stock market (Brinkers favorite), but only 15%. Then adding in mid and small caps, long term treasury, gold, and small cap EM. Brinker would never utilize gold or long term treasury and singling the investment out on their own, I would agree. But it is funny how they work to moderate the overall volatility and pump up returns. The fund has low correlation with stock market and most always above 10% annual return. The volatility is just above famous Wellesley, but will return 2% more annually. This portfolio has been on my radar for over a year and I can't rightly punch holes in it. Also, the value of gold within such a fund was something I quickly dismissed. before. The fund should be attractive to retirees. I'll continue to evaluate.
A few analysts such as Bob Brinker whose been around more than 30+ years calling the market twist and turns, hasn't encountered the current situation of tariffs and the market (S&P 500)direction.
In other words, no history to guide his readers whether it is a good time to invest. So why not play both angles: the pullback may come a repeat of 10% cause of tariff fears; but if you stay on the sidelines, not investing, you miss out on the upside (lol); that is why BB may hedge his bet by dollar-cost-average at lower prices, assume you will get a bounce; no recession in sight, although trade wars may bring a recession earlier.
BB should be live this weekend after 2 consecutive reruns to comment on good earnings season, to boost market, temporarily; or perhaps comment on politics out November elections outcome Republican domination will still exist, Mueller's latest Russian election tampering of 2016, etc, Trump upcoming meeting with Russia's Putin (good/bad), etc.
BB must tell his readers if he's still alive or have a robot run the show for him.
With low ratings, his program subject to cancellation by radio stations or delay broadcasting like some do (KABC in Los Angeles has done for many years now.)
A three fund Portfolio is what Bogleheads recommend. Simplicity is paramount.
Gabe
I meant to say a three fund PORTFOLIO.
Gabe
Trees,
I have been a customer of Fidelity for over 40 years and Schwab for over 3 years. I am currently a customer of both and have participated in numerous, very rewarding promos at both.
I have never had a problem with either of them. In fact, on a scale of 1- 10, I would rank each at 12+++.
Both offer great websites, great research, magnificent Active Trader platforms and fantastic Customer Service! I honestly don't think anyone could find better companies to trade with.
JC Ñ Ѥ ② Ѫ
Here is a link to a review of Bogles book and the main points.
https://www.caniretireyet.com/little-book-common-sense-investing/
Read that a fund manager can offer to buy and blend in a cohort's fund that is doing badly, yet still publish the stats on the better fund. A year or so ago, I put up a link on Honey's blog of an article that listed the type of funds with the unreported cost of ownership. These types of cost include the above and other underhanded tricks the fund manager and investment firms play. Biases and drift of investment mission play into this. The ETF type of fund had the least cost and contamination.
I was in Fidelity for 21 years and per my opinion they are very flashy and smooth with good marketing. I'm not into that anymore and do not utilise inhouse advice as the advice is always tainted with self serving benefits. Vanguard will give an investor more of what is important. Also, I do like the Ishare system of investing with ETFs. They are growing in my respect. Also, when investing look to the Robinhood app as this is what the industry may be migrating to. Totally simple and absolutely free.
The six fund portfolio mentioned above bested the growth of S&P over the last 30 years and did so with much less volatility.
A good Boglehead popular Three Fund portfolio had similar growth as the six fund over a 30 year time period but at .54 sharpe ratio. The Taylor Larimore portfolio is made up of 50% total U.S., 30% total International, and 20% total bond funds.
Lets look at more recent 10 yr results that still hang onto the Great Depression.
3 fund- 6.22% CAGR at .51 Sharpe
6 fund- 9.77% at .89 Sharpe ratio
VWINX- 7.11% at 1.07 Sharpe
Honey, seems to me awhile ago you had a friend who was interested in old cameras. I have another camera I'd like to give away. Let me know.
jsamelson@comcast.net
Jeff Samelson
219 210 0153
rasputin here - Honey, did you get an e-mail from me about an S OR camera?
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