Sunday, July 1, 2018

July 1, 2018, Frankj: Advice for Preparing Financially for Cognitive Decline

July 1, 2018....Bob Brinker took today off to celebrate the 4th of July week. (comments welcome)

FrankJ has summarized and added to a treatise about making a financial plan for later years that might include cognitive decline. Frankj wrote: 

I referenced an article I read on the SeekingAlpha.com website.  The title is:  Defending Your Retirement Financial Plan From Cognitive Decline.   The author is ISTJ investor which is a screen name he (or she) uses, so I don’t have the actual name.   It was posted about June 20th and unless you subscribe to SeekingAlpha (which I do not) it is no longer available since they put articles behind a paywall once they’re over 10 days old.  I downloaded the article though and summarize parts of it below. 

About half the article covered medical information on cognitive decline:  Alzheimer’s, dementia, etc.  Who was susceptible and at what ages.  Interesting but too lengthy to go into here.   
I’ll put my comments in italics to distinguish them from the actual author’s writing.
As background, society at large recognizes that cognitive decline is something to face when people get into their 60’s and 70’s.  From the article:

·         A  2016 Harvard Business Review article notes that more than a third of S&P 500 companies have a mandatory CEO retirement age.
·         A 2017 study found that about 40% of S&P 500 companies disclose a mandatory retirement age for board members, with 72 being the most common age.
·         Over 30 States have mandatory retirement ages for judges, with 70 being the most common age.
·         Air traffic controllers are normally required to retire at 56.
·         Although there is no mandatory retirement age for doctors, this article reports that 5-10% of hospitals have begun mandatory evaluations for doctors at 70 or 75. At one hospital, 7 of 35 doctors over 70 gave up hospital privileges rather than be evaluated.
·         And finally, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has adopted rules 4512 and 2165, which encourage fiduciaries to identify a Trusted Contact and apply additional oversight to specifically to accounts held by people over 65.
Tradition - distilled empirical observation - suggests that cognitive risk increases somewhere around 70.  It's worth pointing out the relatively tight grouping of ages in the above policies. If there is a cognitive performance retirement policy at all, it's almost unanimously before age 75.  People today can reasonably expect to live into their 80s, and arguably their retirement plans should accommodate living into their 90s. It looks like a risk.
We are all subject to Normal Aging.   The probability of this is 100%.   With regard to financial planning the impact is none to very little.   Symptoms might be slower processing speed, memory and slower decision making.  
Mild Cognitive Impairment might affect 15 to 20% of us.  The impact is  reduced  capability to manage even routine financial activities.  The symptoms are noticeable declines in memory, information processing, decision making, and risk assessment.
Dementia might affect 10-35%  of us.  The impact is a catastrophic loss of capability.  The symptoms are a decline in memory and other areas, increasingly unable to care for oneself
The author’s operational assessment is: 
·         The risk of material cognitive impairment during retirement is real
·         The risk should be explicitly considered in retirement financial planning
·         The probability is > 10%, perhaps > 20%
·         The probability increases with age
·         The impact can be moderate to catastrophic
·         Plans should anticipate mild impairment of 5 or more years
·         Plans should anticipate significant impairment of 2-3 years
·         Basic precautions should be in place by age 70
·         Precautions should be finalized by age 75
The author’s recommended plan:
Critical legal documents
Perhaps most importantly ensure that you have the legal documents that appoint and empower an agent to manage your medical care, your financial affairs, and your estate, should you no longer be able to do so.
This will include at a minimum an advanced medical directive, a healthcare power of attorney, a durable financial power of attorney, a will, and potentially one or more trusts.
An amazing number of people don't even have a will. According to a 2016 Gallup poll, 44% of those in the 50-64 age group, and 32% in the 65+ group, and 25% of age 55+ with income of $75,000+ do not have a will.
I'll just close this section by saying that in the event they are needed, each of these will be extremely useful to the agent trying to take care of you and carry out your wishes.
Good Housekeeping
Life is easier if things are in good order. This may become particularly important if your agent is trying to step in to handle your affairs.
Put your financial status and plans in writing. I personally have a Financial Plan document in Word and a multi-tab Excel spreadsheet. Between the two, everything from the location of my safe deposit box to projected RMD distributions is readily available.
Other housekeeping  things to consider:
·         Ensure all financial accounts are correctly titled.
o   Maybe your spouse passed away and you had joint investment accounts.  You want to put them in your name only.
·         Ensure beneficiaries on accounts are correct and current
o   Very important.   I’m not a lawyer but I know that you do not need to put anything about beneficiaries to an IRA account in a will because the beneficiaries that the custodian has on file are the ones who’ll get the dough.
o   Keep a hardcopy of the beneficiary designation form.
·         Document - financial accounts (checking, savings, investments), pensions, annuities, trusts, alimony, real property, insurance policies (life, medical, long term care, house, renter, auto, umbrella, flood), debts, credit cards, safe deposit boxes
·         Clean up your physical files (buy a shredder ?? and if you do, don’t buy an el Cheapo).
·         Write down login and passwords; keep them secure but accessible to your agent.
·         Ensure you have backups for digital files
·         Name a Trusted Contact for each of your fiduciaries
o   I think you’d want to include your tax preparer as one of these fiduciaries and let them know who your agent is  and that he or she has your ok to work with the tax preparer if needed.  Tell your agent who your tax preparer is, if you use one. 
·         Review security; freeze your credit.  
·         Create a checklist for the surviving spouse on death of first-to-die spouse
·         Put desired funeral/burial arrangements in writing
·         Review all this with your agent, by age 70
·         To this list I would add having hardcopies of the last few years of tax returns available.  Three years is good, seven is better.  What if someone passes away and by coincidence a letter arrives from the IRS questioning a past return?  
Simplify
Consider simplifying your financial affairs where it makes sense, and meets your objectives. You may be able to reduce the burden on yourself, operating at less than 100%, or a surviving spouse, or your agent.
I'll give two examples from personal experience. In the first case, a surviving spouse was left with critical retirement assets tied up in a closely held company. While growing and profitable, it yielded little income, and was not routinely liquid. In the second case, the surviving spouse was left with a portfolio of difficult-to-manage rental properties.
And I’ll add one of my own.  The sister of a friend died and her IRA went to three people, two of them were her nephews in their 20’s.  The third one was her mother, about 80.  Her executor was not financially aware.  He could have had the mutual fund company split the assets into three beneficiary accounts – each with its own mandatory withdrawal rate.  There is a time limit for this and it passed without the accounts being split up.  So, the mandatory withdrawals were based on the OLDEST beneficiary’s age, in other words, the Grandma.  Their distributions are higher than they would be if they inherited separately.  Both the young men are working so they don’t especially need the extra income, which is taxed as ordinary income.

Some specifics actions to consider while simplifying:

·         Cancel unneeded credit cards
·         Consolidate 401(k)s, IRAs, and other retirement accounts
·         Consolidate accounts to fewer fiduciary institutions
·         Simplify portfolio
·         Sell non-liquid or difficult to manage assets
·         Sell out of state property

·         Set a schedule to sell your residence
As an example, simplifying your portfolio might mean consolidating four mutual funds and a dozen individual stocks into a single target date fund.   
Today, July 1, 2018 in a repeat show, Bob Brinker told a caller that he thought target date funds were for people who didn’t know what they were doing.   I don’t agree with Bob although I do not use them myself.  
I would add instead of a target date fund, 
·         A balanced fund or, 
·         A large cap fund and a bond fund or, 
·         A total market fund and a bond fund.
The point is, the fund or funds need to satisfy YOUR needs if income generation is an objective.  You’re not dead yet,  so don’t worry too much about what your heirs might be faced with in the funds they inherit.  They can always change things, just don’t stick them with some high expense ratio funds in case inertia takes hold.
The author did not go down all the rabbit trails of types of accounts and tax ramifications.  Probably not enough space or it might be grist for a future article or because the focus was on a living person-- in decline.  I’ll add here that someone may not want to convert holdings in a personal account to one, or just a few mutual funds.  The tax consequences are not appetizing.  If this account is inherited, the heirs can liquidate if they wish, and probably owe very little in taxes because they get a stepped up basis.
A spouse gets to treat an inherited IRA as his/her own.  So they can change the type of fund it is in if they wish.  The biggest risk is an inexperienced spouse falling into the clutches of a greedy financial planner.  A solid agent can help with that especially if the deceased left behind clear instructions.
Put your financial affairs on auto-pilot
Once your financial affairs are in order, and appropriately simplified, consider automating them to the extent feasible; the model here is to put your financial affairs on auto-pilot. 
Your agent may be trying to act in your interest for several years.  Plan ahead to make it easy on them; in the meantime, make it easy on yourself.
Some specifics to consider:

·         Automate bill payment - utilities, rent, insurance, credit cards
·         Pay recurring bills with a bank draft where possible
·         Automate re-investment and asset allocation changes
·         Add your agent to your safe deposit box signature list if you have one.
·         Add agent to checking account signature list
·         If you have an in-home safe, your agent should have the combination.
Communicate

Talk to your agent. They need to know they ARE your agent, and agree to take on the task. They need to understand at least in general your plans and wishes, what documents and files you have, and where to find things.
The author does not go into how to pick an “agent” or what the skills of the agent need to be although they are implied.  Here are my thoughts.   
·         The agent must be WILLING as mentioned above and they must KNOW they are the agent.
·         They are going to be acting as a fiduciary so it follows they must be honest to the max. 
·         It should be someone who will outlive you, or at least not go down the track of cognitive decline in parallel.
·         It should be someone who understands your goals – this means you need to state them clearly. 
·         Your executor might make a good agent, if willing.  
·        A responsible child might make a good one.  If there are a number of kids, explain why one is being chosen over others.   Along this line, if you haven’t taught your kids about money management, maybe now is a good time to start.  If they are grown up you probably know which one would make a good “agent.”

Honey here: Thank you so much, Frankj!

(My market and Bob Brinker update is below this post.)


43 comments:

tfb said...

FrankJ,

Thank you. This is a subject that has bothered me since 2000 when the implications became clear to me. Since then I have watch friend after friend succumb to various forms of dementia.

This is the reason I have been simplifying my portfolio over the years in preparation to put it on autopilot.

Thank you again.

Your friend,

tfb

Trees said...

Thank you for that post. I'm the youngest of 9, so I pay attention to their age and abilities. Also, I do review the late parents health age and finances looking at their solutions and mistakes. It is amazing how naive some are in old age with investments. I wouldn't trust a financial advisor or realator. It is amazing how they can manipulate folks. Some are so susceptible to have this new friend or trusted advisor. Folks, is all up to you and it is all about the money. This problem will get worse as the youth think that Boomers have unethically gained profits. There already a cottage industry to dupe Boomers out of finances. It will get worse and no the government doesn't have your back. They will be the first ones reaching into your pocket.

I've seen way to many Landlords get waylaid by holding property. They get advice to die with the property as the step up in asset value will be painless for them. Problem is the relatives have no interest and the rental property will ruin the elderly life enjoyment. They sell at the worse possible time. Throwing it away. Realtors know this and really do a number on them. Tax code really hammers depreciation recapture.

We better be working on a plan and have it implemented before the "No Go Years". We should be minimalist by then and operate on simple plan.

You mentioned the target date funds. I read a Vanguard article on the growing popularity of these funds. Something is up. Investors, due to internet, are growing in financial competence. The Investor advisor occupation is a dying field and so are the high load active funds. Vanguard is estimating that in 10 years the Target Date Funds will be 80% of Vanguard. So, I'm guessing they will make the underlying funds better, lower cost, and that after a few global events or Mega Trend such happenings we will all be attracted to the security and return on these funds. My guess Vanguard is betting to gain market share with this strategy. Also, we have new technology of robo investors and strategy method of modern portfolio management. They will sharpen these tools for competition and market gain.

Anonymous said...

Thank you

tfb said...

My observation is Vanguard is doing everything it can to force people(against their will) into target date funds (which I find inappropriate for many people). Aldo note they charge a premium for them over the components.

frankj said...

tfb: I wonder if that is because Vanguard is getting money coming in or roll-overs or account transfers from people who are not able to pick their own funds to suit their purposes and want guidance. So Vanguard sort of herds them into a pen, i.e. a target date fund. There are people out there who are ill-equipped to make decisions about their own money.

gabe said...

How about a three fund portfolio consisted of Vanguard Funds.....The Total Stock Market, The Total International Stock and The Total Bond Fund. Simple.

Gabe

natasha said...

Does anyone know what the Fidelity equivalent to the vanguard prime money market fund is?

Anonymous said...

I want to to thank you for this wonderful read!!
I certainly loved every little bit of it. I've got you bookmarked to
look at new stuff you post?

rjb112 said...

natasha said...
Does anyone know what the Fidelity equivalent to the vanguard prime money market fund is?

++++++++++++++++++++++

Natasha,
It is the Fidelity Money Market Fund, symbol SPRXX.
It's current yield is 1.86%

Robert

tfb said...

FrankJ,

Vanguard has literally been harassing my son about his asset allocation. They think they know better. Twice this year, due to alleged software gliches they switched him out of his carefully constructed portfolio and into one of their Target Date Funds. It is ridiculous. You also get scolded when you logged in with their sugegsst4d allocation. Unfortunately his 401K plan is with Vanguard but fortunately his personal accounts are with Fidelity.

Target Date funds are probably alright for those 28 to 55 undersavers who have no other investment assets except in their 401K or IRA
but they have serious shortcomings for those who are young investors, have substantial assets and/or are at a high multiple of annual expenses, or a diversity of investments, and/or plan to leave a substantial legacy to name a few.

tfb

tfb said...

I have nothing against Fido's Money market fund, but you might want to take a close look at the brokered CDs and Treasury offerings: safer and higher yields. Also you might want to look at the secondary market for CDs as the yields are even higher. Below, the first line is brokered new issue CDs and the second line Treasuries.

3mo 6mo 9mo 1yr 2yr 3yr
2.10% 2.25% 2.30% 2.35% 2.80% 3.00%

1.98% 2.13% 2.27% 2.37% 2.56% 2.65%

tfb

frankj said...

Gabe, those three funds are what William Bernstein recommended in a paper he wrote in 2014. It is called "If You Can," and it is available as a pdf. It was directed at young people to get them going. He recommended putting equal amounts into all three funds. Not something I'd agree with, i.e., having one-third in bonds at a young age.

gabe said...

Frank: I Agree. I'd follow with allocations or percentages based upon age and risk tolerance. (if I selected this portfolio)

By the way, I just loved your article on finances and dementia. Long overdue.

It would be helpful if Bob would discuss this issue and give his opinions.

Take Care,

Gabe

frankj said...

Gabe, thanks. I thought that same thing, someone along those lines would make a good guest. They'd be "safe" in that they probably wouldn't spout off anything contrary to Bob's philosophy. Then again, they would only skim the surface, people who listen and are interested might want a website or some way to follow up.

The third hour interviews don't last that long as you know. About 15 minutes out of the first half hour, and then from about 3:35 to 3:50 or so.

tfb said...

Ya'll do get that Da Brink is some 77 years of age? Just sayin'.

J Wales said...

Da Brinkmiester is a salty old dog like me.

Chuck Linseed said...

Don't worry.

My dad dragged anchor to his Allstate Ins. desk job in NJ weather 5 days a week until he hit 81 and thankfully unhooked from the grist mill. He moved back home to Dixie and lived to 87. He said, "Son, I'd rather burn out than rust out. I've tried both."

As executor, I met his finances. He left behind a good chunk. Didn't take Soc. Sec. until 70, maybe because his best corporate job finked out and handed-off the pension responsibilities to the U.S. Gov. Pension Guarantee Corp. for pennies on the dollar. As one might say, "There are no guarantees in life."

He had an MBA from Stanford and loved all aspects of marketing. As an example, during a rendezvous with his oldest son in L.A. on business after 5 years of no contact, he wanted to stop by the Walmart to check the aisle positioning of his firm's products before we visited his older brother whom I'd never met. Yes, he was intense about marketing.

To buttress Brinker's butt a little more, must admit that he taught many about the impending bond market bear trend going forward. Without his siren song, I might've jumped happily into the traditional vanilla with hot fudge. Watch out for that f-word (fudge).

Thank goodness it clicked that 1982 bond coupons don't exist anymore for a reason. Thank you Mr. Volker, and Mr. Reagan. They called him Ronnie Ray-gun but I loved it. Super funny.

Carry on, Bob, as long as you can.

Trees said...

A couple days back read a personal investment article claimed most elders will suffer financial loss/abuse exploitation. This financial advisor claimed 90% was at the hands of relatives. It was an internal poll within financial advisor industry. Actually, I've read similar articles that urge retirees not to trust relatives.

I think articles like this are self promotion of financial industry. I'm sure this is a hot button issue, but if this large percentage to be accurate, this would have to be common. I do know a few retirees that let their kids walk all over them for free housing and utilities. Also, probably loans. When talking of the situation they like to claim victimhood status, but at the same time they like to be the person or provider and are all right with it. Basically, I see this family problem as specific and personal. No conclusions to be drawn for general public guidance. Some should definitely put resources or information in the hands of independent respected advisor. Most commonly that would be a relative.

I do know plenty of late age dementia inflicted elders that turn on those that help them the most. Lots of horror stories from my zone of personal contacts. It seems everyone is looking and holding relative as suspects (thank you financial experts). It makes the job of chaperoning much harder and less rewarding as the nature of people is to first think of gold digging. Also, I pickup the elder community sometimes shares gossip for contempt of relatives and urge each other to avoid any financial planning for inheritance. It goes something like they will quickly put you into nursing home. Make them earn inheritance by taking care of you. Our last surviving widower is like that. Funny the one that takes so much personal time, help, and financial help is the most untrusting. Also, she is very manipulative and very good at imaging making. Everyone of her contacts look at us with suspicion. Her banking friend is going to check up on her per the recent move to assisted living. It seems to me all of these good people would just love to be her defender. What a unrewarding responsibility for us. The relative has been unable to manage anything and totally dependent.

Trees said...

The life strategy investments- Why will it become popular? I think these financial houses will push these. I'm sure they will market them as carefree and worry free. You can do this with Vanguard for very low load. They will infer, to save you financial advisor costs and go with these funds instead. Avoid the rebalancing and bond glide path concerns.

Their is something to be said of this. Also, for some reason employers are pushing these funds in 401 accounts? Below is a snapshot you may find interesting:

Ten year performance or just about entire lifespan of these funds

Black Rock Life Path 2040 now named Life Path Dynamic 2040 .69% load or $2,478 to manage $10k for 10 years.

Vanguard 2040 costs $230 for ten years of $10k, but if you split up funds and rebalance yourself you could keep that down $109. That works out to saving .1% load.

10 year performance of four retirement funds-

STELEX 4.72% CAGR with .35 Sharpe ratio (Blackrock 2040)
VFORX 6.32% .46 (Vanguard 2040)
VWELX 7.13 .69 (Wellington)
VWINX 6.45% .94 (Wellesley)

The 2040 funds are more aggressive at this stage to achieve higher returns. Notice how the Wellington Wellesley offer more return and at more stability. Future results may be different, but these two funds haven't needed to renamed themselves to hide prior results and they have been doing this financial stuff for ever.

gabe said...

Trees....I have the Balanced Index Fund over at Vanguard. Much lower expense ratio than either Wellesley or Wellington and more tax efficient. If one is not interested in the international play....Balanced holds no foreign; with similar results in 5 and 10 year performance.

Gabe

frankj said...

I think if employers are pushing them it is because the fund houses suggest they might be a good choice for a novice investor. Being made up of index funds, the target date funds are easy for the fund firm to manage.

I am not aware of employers pushing specific funds in my experience, limited as it is. I do think having them available helps the employer sleep better, knowing there is a no brainer fund available, insofar as it heads off employee complaints about choices.

Natasha said...

Natasha here

Thank you for the great article. My week to week struggling son has no time to figure out my spreadsheet.
It must constantly be modified as things mature. Oh well both sons know where the safety deposit box and keys are and where their things are hidden in the house.

Natasha said...

Natasha here to Robert
Thankyou

J Wales said...

Will any of the great posters here please comment on this. Vanguard funds VFIAX vs VEIPX: one is an index fund. The other is a fund managed by Wellington. Performance is a dead heat at 10.1% for 10 years. Are these funds an apples to apples comparison? Thanks

Trees said...

I have VFIAX (S&P) and the fund doesn't perform as well as the total stock market. I did read Vanguard dropped the fund from its' list for employee 401s. I continue to think of three funds wellington, wellesley, and high growth. Wellesley is my "bond" fund kind of. Wellington is stable growth or midterm. Still looking for a growth fund for long term.

Balanced fund is between the wellington wellesley in bond funds and resulting growth. Balanced fund looks good in the 10 year history, but the data is almost entirely the historical bull run. Go out from there with longer history and the value of wellington wellesley is apparent. One has more stability at good returns, the other more growth at reasonable stability.

The growth fund I'm looking for. Total stock market would be a good choice, but more and more it's becoming apparent that I should have just kept in the Contra fund. My wife's workplace 401k had a lower load on the fund. That move to convert to IRA and transfer to Vanguard was a mistake. William Danoff has a history of good. The fund has a long history and usually doesn't tank as much as stock market index funds in a correction. The fund does better as compared to VEIPX. It looks to me, it might be worth paying the higher load and go back to Contra fund. I need a high long term growth in TD Ameritrade for HSA and the same for Vanguard for a longer term retirement fund. The load is now .74%. Funny, Contra made news a few months back as investors rushed out of the fund. Financial analysis couldn't understand why they would abbondone a high performing fund at such high numbers and rush to low load index funds? Safety? Not really, Contra's historical performance appears to be better.

gabe said...

The trade war begins at midnight!

Steve in Redding said...

I'll tell you where the war is. It's on my beer store's shelves.

I almost dove into a fox hole when I got home from a long holiday weekend amongst the desert flora and tried to innocently procure a 12-pack at the Local Yokels market and was shell shocked by the $3-dollar price hikes across the beer-lovin' board. What the hell happened?!

Is it because of wage pressures or maybe the fuel for trucking the Ag ingredients to the huge kettles? I mean, come on!

To me, it smells a little fishy. It might be that the highly controlling, vaguely monopolistic beer distributors are thinking, "With the impending inflation, somebody has to go first so it might as well be us."

Alky and cigarettes can be be very in-elastic, as the Econs would say, meaning that a price increase doesn't diminish demand very much because those who need it must have it, and the beer distribs know it so... awe, what the hell, let it fly.

Just hoping that the suppliers are getting a cut too-- the rice growers, the hop farmers, the yeast manipulators, the sugar grainers and of course the Teamster brewery workers.

Apparently, the good times are upon us so let's party!

J Wales said...

Seems like Wellesley is hard to beat for this cotton top.

Natasha said...

From natasha to TF1

Is Fido Fidelity?

Thanks
Natasha

Natasha said...

Natasha here,

I have my own tiny political rebellion. I live in a high tax state that uses its tax money unwisely in my opinion. So if I can find a treasury and not pay state taxes and yet achieve the equivalent of a cd on which I do pay state taxes, then I buy the treasury. I know, I know, I know... I should move but maybe my state government will improve someday from my perspective.

gabe said...

I'm considering VFMFX.....a new fund that requires a minimum of $50,000. So far, it is doing well.

Gabe

Honeybee said...

Today's Jobs Report News:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report today, revealing that more than 200,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. Average hourly earnings for workers increased, as well.

Critics' pessimistic predictions about the U.S. economy under President Trump have not held up. Business fixed investment grew by 9.2 percent during the first quarter of 2018, while hourly compensation for private-sector workers grew at a 4 percent annual rate—the fastest pace in at least 12 years.

Honeybee said...

.
It is not reported much by the MSM, but welfare, SSI (NOT SSA = Social Security) and food stamp use is declining. Here's why:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report showing that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 213,000 jobs in June, surpassing what forecasters predicted. The U.S. economy continues its longest, consecutive streak of positive monthly job numbers, with employment growth averaging 215,000 jobs per month in 2018—larger than the gains in both 2016 and 2017. The economy has added more than 3.2 million jobs since President Donald J. Trump took office in January 2017 and 3.7 million jobs since the election in November 2016.

Job increases were significant in education and health services (54,000), professional and business services (50,000), and manufacturing (36,000). Since the President was elected, goods-producing industries (construction, manufacturing, and mining and logging) have fared extremely well, adding 876,000 jobs. Growth was also strong in leisure and hospitality (25,000), transportation and warehousing (15,000), and government (11,000) sectors which experienced growth ahead of their previous 12-month average.

A separate household survey released by BLS offers more indications of a strong, growing U.S. economy. Although the unemployment rate went up by 0.2 percentage point (p.p.) over the month, it’s the kind of rise that economists like to see: It was due to a rise in labor force participation—more people who have been discouraged and sitting on the sidelines are now throwing their hats in the ring and deciding to look for a job. When they do, unless they immediately find a job, they get counted as unemployed, paradoxically causing the unemployment rate to go up. The share of unemployed workers who were labor market re-entrants in June was the highest rate since before the Great Recession and remains 0.8 p.p. lower than it was in January 2017.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for Hispanics reached a new series low, falling by 0.3 p.p. to 4.6 percent. The employment-to-population ratio remained steady at 60.4 percent, indicating that the increase in the unemployment rate was largely a result of these new labor market participants.

Labor force participation for prime-age workers, which is an important indicator because it is not driven by demographics but, rather, by the strength of the job market, also increased 0.2 p.p. over the month to 82.0 percent. Since President Trump was elected, 900,000 prime-age American workers have entered or re-entered the labor force. Employment levels rose by 102,000 people in June, but unemployment rose by even more, resulting in a higher unemployment rate.

As shown in the figure below, of those unemployed, almost 32 percent were labor force reentrants in June, or individuals who had previously left the workforce and stopped looking for work, but have now returned to the job market (see figure), the highest rate since before the Great Recession. This high level of re-entrants also signals a healthy economy in which people who had previously given up on finding a job have gained confidence that they will now find one. Meanwhile, the share of new labor force entrants—individuals searching for a job for the first time—accounted for 8.8 percent of the unemployed population in June.

Additionally, job leavers (those who voluntarily quit their job) account for 12.4 percent of the unemployed population in June. The share of job leavers also indicates the robustness of the economy as these workers are willing to leave their jobs, presumably for better options.

JOBS BOOM

Honeybee said...

.
Kilgore Trout.....TAKE A HIKE. I've had enough of your insults from your anonymous perch - hiding your profile so it's not visible.

Saying shame on me are fighting words to me. But you are such a puny little, limp-wristed wimp, a strong woman is just too much for you to go face to face with in plain sight.

J Wales said...

Gabe do you think VFMFX will an index fund slayer? Or just another pretender that get hammered down when the markets change direction? I guess they have to try new strategies & therories out.

J Wales said...

Vanguard says the fat years are over. 10 lean years coming.

J Wales said...

Of course Bogle said to expect low mid single digit returns a number of years ago. No ones crytal ball is working.

gabe said...

J Wales: Too early to say. It has underperformed the S&P....3 months running . *M is a good place to look at it.

Gabe

gabe said...

My understanding is that Vanguard sees the Market going forward at a clip of 3 to 5 %. not including inflation. Perhaps Bank CD's or MMF is the way to go?

Gabe

J Wales said...

I think I read here that BB said that the 10 year treasuries historical normal rate is 4-5%. So I guess he must believe the economy will support normal rates again. Were still pretty far away from rates that high but headed in that direction. Hence his effort to avoid bond funds with durations over one year. The life & times of a market timmer.

tfb said...

From natasha to TF1

Is Fido Fidelity?

Thanks
Natasha


Yes, Fidelity is affectionately known as Fido. Sorry about that. I do believe Fidelity has the best fixed income desk in the business.

My reference is I have or had accounts at:

Wells Fargo
Fidelity
Vanguard
Charles Schwab
TDAmeritrade
ScottTrade
First Trade
Morgan Stanley

tfb

tfb said...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report today, revealing that more than 200,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. Average hourly earnings for workers increased, as well.

Critics' pessimistic predictions about the U.S. economy under President Trump have not held up. Business fixed investment grew by 9.2 percent during the first quarter of 2018, while hourly compensation for private-sector workers grew at a 4 percent annual rate—the fastest pace in at least 12 years.


As I mentioned a few times in the this forum, the U.S. economy is on the greatest small business creation tear I have seen in my 30 some years now of small business creation/expansion/consulting. I was so close to retirement, but now I am feeding off the enthusiasm and energy of entrepreneurs.

One thing though, they really need to alter the taxation of SS benefits and distinguish between earned income and income in general so that folks who are retired and drawing SS are able to work without being penalized for it. We really need to free up those retired folks so they are free to supplement the labor pool. I know that is the exact opposite of the original intention of SS, but the times are different. Those start-ups I mentioned could really use some senior help, not only as workplace role models but simply to augment the part time work force.

Capitalism is grand, even the version of it we have in the United States. It is an amazing prosperity machine. And man what a difference a President makes. Instead of some loser, life long government suckling pig for President saying "you didn't build that" we have great American saying get of your butt and go live your dream, 'cause Trump has your back. It is a great time to be American.

God bless this great nation. And God bless Donald Trump.

I love America!

tfb

P.S. I vetted 9 franchises this week for would be entrepreneurs. Since it was the 4th of July I did it pro-bono a little give back to a country that has been so good to all of us who avail themselves of the opportunities around us. Damn, I am proud to be an American.

J Wales said...

The trade war is probably now part of the wall of worry for stocks. We will probably see a big jump in stocks going into or after the mid term elections. Anyone else have a working crystal ball. Mine is new but made in China.