EDIT: Due to severe weather issues in his area, dRahme was limited on making audio clips from Sunday Moneytalk. dRahme's Audio Clip: Brinker's comments on Fed, Economy and Debt
CURRENT STOCK MARKET NUMBERS: July 20th, the Dow closed at 25,058; the S&P 500 Index at 2802; and the Nasdaq at 7820.
CURRENT STOCK MARKET NUMBERS: July 20th, the Dow closed at 25,058; the S&P 500 Index at 2802; and the Nasdaq at 7820.
BRINKER'S STOCK MARKET COMMENTS....."S&P 500 sitting in about the 2800 level, and since reaching its all-time-historic-peak close in January this year which was at 2872, it's basically been bouncing around. We had a 10.1% pullback over a period of only nine days when there was an inflation scare back in the first quarter. And since that time, its just bounced back and forth a number of times - and basically been in a trading range since January. And that trading range has been - there was a short time in the 2500 - but mainly, it's been in the 2600s, the 2700s, even a little bit around that 2800 level. It's bounced around a lot if you go back to January of 2018.
Honey's EC: Brinker has always defined a bear market as a decline of 20% or more, a major correction between 10% and 20%, and a "noisy" correction as 10% or less.
Based on Brinker's "Special Bulletin" in February 2018, he considered 10.1% a correction and was waiting for retest to issue a new buy-signal. Here are some excerpts:
In the February edition of Marketimer we continued to recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for investing new stock market money, especially during periods of market weakness. We also observed that we expected increased volatility this year, and noted that in every mid-term election year since 1962 the market has experienced a decline of at least 7.4%. We also noted that in seven of the last eight mid-term election years dating back to 1986, the decline has been within the category of a correction of less than 20%.
The initial stage of the current correction carried the S&P 500 Index into the mid-2500s range during the February 9th trading session as the index searches for the area of an initial bottom. Following the completion of the initial correction phase, we expect the S&P 500 Index to stage a short-term rally which is likely to run out of steam and roll over into a retest of the developing initial bottom area. For subscribers looking to add to stock market positions, our view is that the potential for a Marketimer buy signal would be highest in the event we see a successful test of an initial bottom area.
(SNIP)
Going forward, if all goes well, we hope to reach a point at which we can upgrade the market to "attractive for purchase" at a level close to the eventual closing correction low. However, this can only occur on a successful test of the initial bottom area, accompanied by confirmation based on our analysis of the technical market internals at that time.
(SNIP)
There are no changes to our model portfolios at this time and we continue to recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for investing new money, especially during periods of market weakness.
BOND FUND PERFORMANCE ACCORDING TO BRINKER.....Caller Jim asked about continuing to hold his Vanguard intermediate and long bond funds: Brinker replied......"We certainly have seen lousy performance from the intermediate and long term bond market since this whole thing (rate increases) has gotten under way in the summer of 2016.....Since then, the Federal Funds rate has gone from 3/8% average to 1 7/8%. So that's 150 basis points. And during that time, the ten-year has also gone up 150 basis points...…
Honey EC: The funds that Brinker sold beginning in 2013 with Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund have done very well.
Jim sums it up well with these comments today:
Since Bob Brinker enjoys explaining to people how duration works with bonds maybe he could be so kind to explain to us how the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index (VLGSX) which has a duration of 17.2 years is only (-0.36%) over the past 12 months, after all the Fed rate hikes and after the yield on the 10 year Treasury has risen 150 basis points. I guess Vanguard must be lying about performance since Bob has said recently that long term bond funds are "getting taken to the woodshed".
July 22, 2018 at 5:52 PM
FEDERAL RESERVE....Brinker comments: The Federal reserve has a tremendous challenge ahead of it and we don't know yet how it's going to turn out.....The most difficult task that the Fed has had to deal with is how to move from accommodative policy to a normalized equilibrium policy.....One of the terms used in the Canyons of Wall Street to describe this is Managing a Soft Landing. …..
ECONOMY EXPANDING.... BB continued: Because we have an economy that has been expanding for many years...… (Honey Editorial Comment: Mostly the economy was clinging to about 2% for "many years." Now some are expecting Q2 to be up to 4%.)
INFLATION..... BB continued: "One of the triggers for raising rates is inflation. We already see inflation figures higher than we'd like to see them. Year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index number 2.9 - that's higher than we'd like to see.
EFFECTS OF TARIFFS SO FAR.... At least twice today, Brinker pointed out that so far, the effects of "tariffs have been very small - and no big deal."
SILVER COINS FOR INVESTMENTS.... Brinker strongly advised a caller against buying numismatic coins because of the exorbitant mark ups on them.
HOW MANY RATE HIKES ALREADY....BB continued: "They are watching all of this at the Federal Reserve, and at the same time, they are in this rate raising posture which started in December 2015. We've already seen seven rate hikes - with more to come.....They are also doing Quantitative Tightening. They are taking money off the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve - the money they piled up when they bought all those Quantitative Easing securities. On a maturity basis for now, they are taking these things and putting them back into the open market - where they to be absorbed...." There is no history for a combined program of raising rates and Quantitative Tightening - never happened. We are very early in QT - have to do $trillions.
UNEMPLOYMENT BELOW 4%....BB continued...."We've gone three years now with basically record low. It's been amazing...."
Honey EC: Brinker ignores his prior reports about the very high under-employment rate, and the huge numbers of workers that were cut to part time because of the ACA and gave up looking altogether, which increase welfare, food stamps and SSI (disability) claims. And he never mentions the racial demographics that have drastically changed this past year. Black and Hispanic unemployment are at HISTORIC LOWS.
ESCAPE VELOCITY.....BB continued: "Economic policy reaches a point that his described in the Canyons of Wall Street by the economic mucky-mucks as Escape Velocity......They are talking about the economy being able to grow on its own in a granular fashion without having the Federal Reserve driving it with low interest rates and highly accommodative monetary policy and financial liquidity....The prevailing wisdom is that we have already reached Escape Velocity. (Honey EC: So it looks like the current President is not going to have the Fed's help maintaining "Escape Velocity.")
WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAM....Brinker continued: "Right now, we have more job listings than qualified applicants.....Now you know that the government has a dreadful historical record of training citizens to take jobs - training citizens to get them to the level that they can qualify to take jobs. The government is pretty dismal. So there's not a whole lot of hope that is suddenly going to be solved overnight...."
Honey EC: Who's talking about Government doing it, Mr. Brinker?! You must not have heard about President Trump's plan that gets corporations to commit to training STUDENTS AND WORKERS for the jobs that need to be filled.
The White House said the "Pledge to America's Workers" would provide at least 3.8 million new career opportunities for students and workers over the next five years, including apprenticeships, work-based learning and continuing education.
Some of the companies signing the pledge include Apple, Boeing, General Motors, FedEx, The Home Depot, IBM, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Northrop Grumman and Walmart. Several trade associations also committed to the job training initiative, and Trump welcomed several members of Congress and state and local officials, including Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker.
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK-GUEST SUMMARY:
On Sunday July 22, 2018, Bob
piloted the MoneyTalk Starship back in time to September 2008 (once again) to
discuss the economic meltdown with Lawrence Ball, a prof at Johns Hopkins
University and author of “The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record
Straight on a Financial Disaster.”
The guest thus joins a long
conga line of authors who have made a cottage industry out of writing books on this
general subject. The book was issued in
June 2018 and checking on Amazon (which is where I usually go for the subtitle)
I see it has one review. Someone gave it
5 stars.
Bob pointed out that
Moneytalk was on the air the weekend it became clear that Lehman would be
allowed to go under. The Fed did not
toss a life ring to Lehman Brothers like they did with Bear Stearns and
AIG. (With Bear Stearns they helped
broker a buyout). The powers-that-be claimed they did not have
legal clearance to help Lehman. The
guest said this “reasoning” came about after the fact; Lehman did in fact have collateral of
sufficient quality to pledge against a loan from the Fed.
We know what happened
next. Credit markets froze. Did it have to happen? No, was the guest’s answer. Lehman could have been saved by a loan from
the Fed. The guest decried widespread
use of the term, “bailout.” It implies
free money. In fact, firms who received
help from the Fed paid the loans back with interest. Bernanke, Paulson and others realized their
mistake in not helping Lehman after they failed. The Fed help to major banks followed shortly
thereafter in the interest of avoiding one bank failure after another which is
what the guest speculated would have happened.
(Some banks took Fed money because to not do so it would
appear to Wall Street that they were beyond help – the source on this is a
banker I know).
Bob brought up the
Dodd-Frank act. The guest said some
parts of it are in need of revision but they probably won’t be, while parts
that will be revised don’t need to be revised.
The guest did not
completely agree with Bob on the risk of inflation. He does not see the labor market as being as
tight as reported by Bob. Therefore he said
it would be premature for the Fed to take actions that would slow the
economy. He said the Fed should do less
and/or do it more slowly.
Callers: Martin from Fairbanks asked the guest if he
saw the movie, Too Big To Fail? The
guest didn’t see it. Martin also asked
what the guest thought of Larry Kudlow’s appointment as an economic
advisor. Bob cut in after the guest
answered the first question so we didn’t hear his opinion of Mr. Kudlow. Bob segued into tariffs.
Nathan from San Jose
country seemed more interested in making a short speech about bailouts and
telling us that he once wrote a paper on the Chrysler bailout. Did the guest think that this started a
trend?
Paul in Louisiana asked if
the reason Lehman didn’t get help was because Henry Paulson did not like Dick
Fuld, head of Lehman. The guest said
there have been a lot of stories to that effect but they’re somewhat
exaggerated. Bob interjected that
Paulson, etc. made the wrong call which was to let the firm go vs. making an
emergency loan.
Bob wrapped up at
3:51.
112 comments:
Bob Brinker, right out of the gate, slams President Trump's program of getting Corporations to provide job training for millions of workers - with no government subsidies.
Of course, no mention of the actual program or mention of President Trump.
After extensive research I have learned the not only is the saying 'May you live in interesting times' not of Chinese or Asian origin, but it was actually coined by an American writer. If anyone happens to get through to Bob's phone, perhaps you can point that out to him. I doubt that he will take it well, but who knows.
Yo, Brinker! Is this what you say has no chance? Are you aware that corporations have already committed to offer specialized training to millions of workers?
Corporations Commit to Provide Job Training to Students and Workers
Some of the companies signing the pledge include Apple, Boeing, General Motors, FedEx, The Home Depot, IBM, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Northrop Grumman and Walmart. Several trade associations also committed to the job training initiative, and Trump welcomed several members of Congress and state and local officials, including Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker.
The administration wants to bring millions of Americans who are not working or searching for work -- and therefore aren't included in the unemployment rate -- back into the job market. More people with jobs would accelerate economic growth and could help the White House achieve its goal of sustained growth of 3 percent or higher.
The additional workers could also help fill 6.6 million open jobs, a near-record high and more than the number of unemployed workers.
Roll out those Lazy-Hazy-Crazy days of THAT Bob!
How Much Will the Trade War Cost?
Summary of study BB referenced last Sunday July 15, 2018.
For the more than $80 billion in tariffs the United States has placed on washing machines and solar energy cells and panels; on most steel and aluminum imports; and on hundreds of products made in China, the short answer is $60 a year per household.
This does not include the potential impact of taxes on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports that the Trump administration enumerated this week; the earliest those could go into effect would be September. Including those tariffs would bring the total annual costs for the average American family to $127.
The household impact numbers are based on analysis of government data by Kirill Borusyak, a postdoctoral associate at Princeton University, and Xavier Jaravel, an economics professor at the London School of Economics.
The numbers also don’t include the costs to some Americans in their roles as producers, as opposed to consumers — people who could lose their jobs or see lower incomes because other countries retaliate by taxing U.S. products. BB referenced Harley-Davidson cutting U.S. production and employees here in the U.S. and moving some production overseas to avoid the border tax on it’s products.
It’s also important to remember that these are average costs. Households that buy expensive items like trucks and washing machines this year will pay more because of the tariffs than households that don’t.
One reason these numbers are relatively small is that the United States doesn’t really import that much relative to the size of its economy. Even though it imported nearly $2.2 trillion of goods in 2015, U.S. imports were only 12 percent of GDP, the lowest percentage among advanced nations. Of that, only about 3 percent of U.S. imports (based on 2015 figures) are subject to these initial waves of taxes.
As an additional exercise, Borusyak and Jaravel ran estimates on what would happen if the United States imposed a 10 percent tariff on all goods imported from China, as suggested in a report by Bloomberg. In that case, it would cost the average household $270.
The first wave of tariffs has been focused on things like industrial equipment that consumers pay for only indirectly. Trump has threatened escalation that could reach $1 trillion or beyond. In further waves, more goods directly purchased by consumers, like electronics and automobiles, would probably be covered, meaning a more direct hit to consumers’ wallets.
The trade war poses much more substantive risks to people whose livelihoods are tied to industries directly affected. That includes both industries that face more expensive raw materials because of tariffs, like a nail manufacturer grappling with higher steel prices, and those that are subject to retaliation, such as soybean farmers who will see lower incomes because of Chinese tariffs on their products.
Economists also point out that these tariffs are to some degree rolling back some of the gains families saw from the tax cut the Trump administration passed seven months ago.
“You’re cutting taxes with the tax reform and then you’re slapping them back on with the tariffs,” Russ said. “In that context they don’t look trivial, especially for low- to middle-income households.”
I see see that CXO Advisory ranks Bob's forecast accuracy at 49%. Let's see now...
HEY! That's almost as good as a coin toss!
(Note to self: Pull out those sofa cushions and see if there are any coins to toss).
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/guru-grades/
(Click on small spreadsheet to enlarge)
JC ₰②⑤₵
so BOB was worried about inflation, any thoughts on how to invest/ protect investments from inflation ?
sounded live to me ???
Natasha here,
Smutty, I also am sitting here with money waiting for the retest. Waiting and waiting!
Tom in Vallejo: Yeah, equities. Specifically equities that will grow in value at a rate greater than inflation. This growth is total return: share appreciation plus dividends reinvested.
Dividend growth investors see this as a way to stay ahead of inflation. It is the dividend yield, yes but also the rate of dividend increase year over year. Would you want a firm paying a 4% dividend but only increasing it 1% per year or a company paying a 2% dividend and increasing it 5% per year?
If you don't want to research individual stocks, there are mutual funds and ETFs.
I can't give the full tutorial but you can head down the path by visiting ... wait for it... SeekingAlpha.com.
. Natasha writes:
Smutty, I also am sitting here with money waiting for the retest. Waiting and waiting!
My reply:
And this is what you get with market timing. At least interest rates have risen so you are getting a return that approaches the dividend yield on the total stock market now while you wait.
The markets can be scary, I get that. A 10 year old bull market, wages being bid up spells trouble for wasteful corporations with high executive compensation, rising interest rates, so called trade wars...
It is a scary time to lump sum in...but then IT ALWAYS is.
My point is you might want to find a new guru. Da Brink is an empty suit. Consider he found a plethora of buying opportunities all the way down in the 2008-2009 debacle. except he missed the bottom. But it never mattered because anyone who had two dimes to rub together already was all in at much higher levels based on Da Brinker's timing.
Imagine how that was, you get your buy opportunity from Da Brink only to watch at the market keeps plummeting and all the way down Da Brink is saying buy-buy.
tfb
FrankJ,
Larry Swedroe is going to have to hunt you down and kneecap you for your post of: July 22, 2018 at 4:29 PM. LOL!
tfb
Since Bob Brinker enjoys explaining to people how duration works with bonds maybe he could be so kind to explain to us how the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index (VLGSX) which has a duration of 17.2 years is only (-0.36%) over the past 12 months, after all the Fed rate hikes and after the yield on the 10 year Treasury has risen 150 basis points. I guess Vanguard must be lying about performance since Bob has said recently that long term bond funds are "getting taken to the woodshed".
tfb: But I bought his book ... on bonds, so maybe he'll give me a break. I guess he doesn't like that investing style? I can add a book on DGI (dividend growth investing) to what I told Tom in Vallejo: Lowell Miller's book, The Single Best Investment. There are a couple of editions out but the principles have not changed. And there are many books on the subject.
Honeybee, I would never knowingly spam you, your site or any other site. I interpreted the lack of my post to the return of the Google gremlins that have bothered this site in the past. I had no idea that you were actually receiving and discarding them due to a source omission.
When I noticed your 1:57 PM post containing only test, my suspicions were validated that the gremlins were at work again. It was not possible for me to know, until you called to my attention at 2:17 PM, that you required a source document to validate and post the article.
Because BB referenced the study, I felt obligated to research the article and consolidate the article from the 5 printed pages I could find, down to the greatly reduced summary posting.
The purpose of my posting at your site is to help advance financial literacy amongst all readers that post at your site and for those who just choose to read and learn.
If I wanted to be nefarious, I would only attempt to post fake news which as you know, I never have.
Regarding the post itself – it will rise or fall on the merit, or lack thereof, of its content.
Thankyou in advance for taking into consideration the confusion I experienced, for the first time, on your wonderful site.
Natasha: TFB is right about Blinker and market timing.
FrankJ,
I vacillate on the wisdom on creating your own portfolio of stocks. Given the bulk of my financial assets are in taxable, the tax efficiency of individual stocks is very appealing. And I like the idea of finding companies that have a shareholder focus first and a dividend bias. But I worry about cognitive decline. Ric Edelman mentioned a study that indicated you peak in financial management in your mid 50s and decline every year after so the prospect of managing a portfolio of stock diminishes.
And of course now there ow are very tax efficient etfs, which currently are the bulk of my financial assets. I have my HSA invested in DGRO .08% ER. As I said, I vacillate on the issue.
tfb
.
Jester...Okay. I apologize for being so tough on you. I backed off an looked at it from your point of view and saw that I was mistaken about what you were doing. I will remove my snarky post to you.
And you are right. Part of the problem was that I was experiencing a problem in comments again - thus the test post.
Brinker said, "In the February edition of Marketimer we continued to recommend a dollar-cost-average."
Who is, "we?"
I see the word, "we", used when it should be, "I" because the poster needs to boost himself up due to a lack of confidence.
All the talk of the Fed easing up on the interest rate handle to gently normalize our interest rate markets. Funny, remember when they released the transcripts of Fed meetings back in '08 when they were discussing what to do. It was shocking to read they were basically clueless and guessing. I do believe this modern economic theory of how to manhandle the economy will eventually fail and fail spectacular. The government interference contaminants our efficient free markets thinking. As a bad result the financials are taking on more risk. We have a growing distortion from Fed interference including the thinking of harmless national debt spending.
Wellington beat Larry Swedroe's two most popular permanent portfolios. Slightly more return and at less risk over decades of historical data. Wellesley offered slightly less return than Wellington, but at a greatly reduced risk. The future may be different given the long 30 year bull run of lowering interests rates is over.
It's funny to see active funds like Wellesley change their bond duration, but not as dramatic as one would think after listening to Bob Brinker. I read one problem that investors fail on is the markets are for the most part efficient. This means the bond market is dynamic and fully adjusted to the rate hike news and future think. The market is usually smarter than our thinking.
I did read a comment from a financial guy on another site who was commenting on Wellesley and future. The two WW funds had very good past record, but going forward he guessed the performance of the bond side will be 30% lower. The 9% CAGR will deteriorate to 6% in rough numbers. This could go on for twenty years. Ouch. Still good, but not the wow. Ya, inflation and low bond performance will keep more money in securities. The inflation adjusted rate of return for bonds at any rate is not that good. Very few times in the historical record does bonds beat securities and when they do the inflation adjusted beating is small. The study on retiree's running out of money from safe withdrawals had discovered that having more in stocks is not dangerous, but safe. The allocation below 50% to stocks was always a loser. Up to 95% was as safe as 50%. The sweet spot must be the half way mark? Wellington is at 70%. They have a good record on bond investments. The stock side in conservative growth. Good dividends stocks that have good growth. Not a particularly good fund outside of tax advantaged accounts.
I have money on the sidelines, also. Scratching my head on what to do. Investments return is flat so not a big concern. Most in this situation dreaming of large correction. There is a financial fear factor on the swamp gaining on Trump and the midterms. If the far Left ever gains popularity all bets are off. The tariff bartering another. Funny how citizens and their politicians have been so scared and meager to put up a fight given we own the markets and have the largest hammer. I guess it's just easier to fit into swamp operations and not fuss. Better not to fight the press and go down into history books as a great person. I read a comment (paraphrased) that history is formed by the best storyteller and the rest is pure biase.
You might be interested in fuel supply pitfall. Seems the international supply of low sulfur diesel is headed to short supply conditions. Vehicle builders have all converted to low sulfur fuel diesel. Refiners have not. Our transportation supply network runs on this fuel. The old diesel engines utilized lower grade crude. The new diesel supply is referred to as gasoil crude. The refining requirements will burden or consume more barrels of oil on whole. It looks like this portion of this crude is a slimmer slice and competes with gasoline. Our $70/barrel crude could rocket to $400 in coming months. The economy could take a hit in 2020.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/expert-makes-the-case-for-400-per-barrel-oil
burt said: Brinker said, "In the February edition of Marketimer we continued to recommend a dollar-cost-average." Who is, "we?"
I've always found that interesting too, and I see it as Blinker wanting to make the impression that he has an army ("we") of analysts, number-crunchers, and fortune tellers who are busily manipulating all the numbers so he can announce when to get in/out of the stock and bond markets.
In reality, he is probably alone most of the time except when Jr. tears himself away from porn sites and has coffee with Pops.
Brinker using the word "we" in Marketimer goes back a long time. Brinker was a co-founder of the BJ Group along with the late Sheldon Jacobs many years ago. In fact, the BJ Group was in existence when the infamous QQQ trade was advised. In the bulletin Brinker used the word "we" 5 times and the word "our" once. I assumed at that time he was including Sheldon Jacobs. In recent years I assume when he uses "we" he means Junior. My guess is that he has shown Junior all the top secret indicators in his timing model so Junior can continue publishing it long after Bob Sr. is unable to.
.
Jim….I agree on all points except one.
If Brinker ever became unable to publish Marketimer, he will also be unable to host Moneytalk.
At that point in time, Junior will become a virtual unknown in a short period of time who has to sell his own newsletter by standing on his own two feet without hanging on Daddy's coat-tails. (IOW: Pretending to be Daddy-Brinker when he runs his multiple ads on Moneytalk, posting on the internet as "Bob Brinker," and hiding his name in his newsletter.
If, God forbid, it happens due to Brinker's death, most people will know right away that they have been scammed, duped and snookered by Junior - with Daddy's total cooperation.
.
Jim…..Speaking of the BJ Group, you may not know that WITHOUT client permission, they went against the rules of how they were supposed to manage the money of their high-priced clients.
They actually jumped into the QQQ trade at top price based on Brinker's buy-signal (in 2000):
Here is copy of the letter they sent to clients. Brinker and Sheldon both signed it (I have the photocopy of it, but Google doesn't all a way to post images here:
The BJ Group
A Division of
Centurion Capital Management's
Private Client Group
Robert J Brinker
Sheldon Jacobs
.
October 19, 2000
.
Dear Client:
.
I am pleased to inform you that the BJ Group has executed a significant trade for you under the guidance and supervision of Bob Brinker.
.
Bob Brinker advised us of a short-term trading opportunity (countertrend rally) in the Nasdaq 100 Index. In response, we have purchased for your BJ account(s) a position in the Rydex OTC fund--a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 Index. Aggressive accounts will receive a more significant position; conservative acounts will have exposure to a lesser degree given the risk profile of the technology-laden Nasdaq 100.
.
It is important to note: we have not sold any existing funds. This purchase reduces your money market reserves or cash position for the duration of the trade. As of this writing, it does not imply a change in Bob's longer term outlook for the market.
.
We are committed to the Brinker investment strategy and look forward to the exciting prospects of this recent development.
.
Sincerely,
.
(Signed by President and the Managing Director, BJ Group.)
We are committed to the Brinker investment strategy and look forward to the exciting prospects of this recent development.
LOL, that is hilarious. Think about it. Every academic study I know of has concluded market timing is not a viable investment strategy - period.
And there they are calling what Brinker does an investment strategy. They would get as good of results if they tried to interpret the curl patterns on Bigfoots fur or the scales on Nessie's back and used them as market timing indicators.
Actually I like it. The crytpozooology guide to investments by fluffy.
LOL,
tfb
.
Dear tfb….I don't remember all the details (I may have some info in some of my files), but I know there were a lot of very angry customers of the BJ Group.
Again, need research to find the exact details, but this may have had something to do with it being sold. It was sold to another company who was sued over some shenanigan, and IIRC, sold again. All the while changing names - so again, another cover-up involving Brinker.
When I get a few spare moments, I'll get more info if you are interested. ????
I wonder what kind of apology letter the BJ Group sent to clients when it became obvious the trade was a failure. All Brinker ever said about it was "We were wrong!". Those were the only 3 words I ever remember.
.
Jim… I may have more documentation of what all happened with the BJ Group.
FWIW: I used to get Sheldon Jacob's newsletter. I never followed the portfolios, but the written articles were interesting.
Sheldon was NOT a market timer like Blinker, and I was always curious how he ever got hooked up with him. Senility is setting in, but if I recall correctly he would VERY slowly scale back equities or reverse that as he viewed market conditions. But none of this in/out, buying dips, etc. like Blinker does.
Also: I remember seeing a tiny ad for The BJ Group in the newsletter, but I never trusted anyone else to handle my retirement money -- and still don't -- so I never looked into it.
Ok then, welcome to my investment world!
As a rookie, the beginner's guide said, "If you love a product, start there because maybe everyone else loves it too."
Then the guide said, "Choose an industry you think will do well, then choose a company therein you think will do well."
Ok then, always loved the beers and the Lagunitas offerings are certainly compelling. Alas, the company was recently purchased by Heineken N.V. (what's that, Netherlands Voluminous or Nevada or something?) but you can get shares on the NYSE with the ticker symbol HEINY (not joking!)
They are ADR's, American Depositary Receipts, basically a proxy security that's approved for "New Yawk" exchanging since it's a foreign company. Actually, it's not that foreign, as most young guys are very familiar with Heinekens, as well as Heiny. And no, not just trying to juice my ADRs.
So there you have it, the easiest and most enjoyable way to invest.
My dearest Hottiebee,
No need to research anything. Really, enjoy the sunset, read a book, and perhaps sip some wine.
I simply feel sorry for the psychological damage that has been done so many people by this charlatan hawking an academically proven falsehood. .You see it posted here, time and again. People are needlessly worried about market declines; I get why, but it is ridiculous. Charlatans like Brinker have needlessly increased people’s anxiety levels by deliberately getting them to focus on financial factors that they cannot control in order to profit from their insecurity.
Simply put, this is beyond ridiculous, it is sinister.
Everyone who has not already read the following post, should read it and absorb the lesson. Once absorbed you should apply it to you particular situation. By the way, I love the way it starts out; it seems apropos: “Meet Bob. Bob is the world’s worst market timer.” – LOL. I think that is a reference to Bob’s disastrous 1987 market call, which remains the biggest furry-kitten-up of any market timer I ever heard of. No wonder why he only tracks his portfolios after that debacle.
Without further adieu, here is the link:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/
And one point that is missed by many. The nature of investing has changed dramatically over the years, unbelievably so. Despite FrankJ and I talking about individual stocks the advent of low cost, broad based index etfs if a major game changer. Here is why, you no longer should harbor a reasonable fear that your equity portfolio will go to zero and not recover. With a portfolio of individual companies that is a reason to give you pause. But with a broad based market etf, the odds are so far against losing everything that it is irrational to worry about it(if you are really worried consider a global market etf). With the etfs verses mutual funds you no longer have to worry about getting hit with large tax bills in a market decline (I learned that painful lesson in 2008-2010 – ouch) generated by the capital gains tax from mutual funds who were forced to sell in order to meet liquidation requests.
Hence the winning move is to have a large enough bucket of yearly expenses in low volatility, principle preservation instruments, i.e. cds, treasuries etc to carry you through a lengthy major decline. Thus you mitigate sequence of events risk that is a very reasonable fear. Note, I focused on factors you can control, not Bogeymen in the night you have no reasonable control over.
Finally, understand, the reason the stock market has a return that attracts money to it, is because of the risk premium. In other words, the uncertainty and volatility of the stock market is what gives the return its sizzle and gets the attention of investors, so your expectation should be for volatility. If you do not grasp that, you really should not be investing.
I hope someone finds this information useful.
Peace, love, and kittens.
tfb
Bob Brinker was a member of the "BJ Group".
I promise to be good, I promise to be good...
tfb
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Message to Stinky: You hit the target over at Morningstar! LOL!
They pulled out all their big guns - whining, moaning and threatening me. Quite frankly, some of the threats sure remind me of what Bob Brinker used to say on Silicon Investor under an alias.
They are dying for me to respond. Hope they aren't holding their breath.
Of course, when they finally realize they aren't going to hear from me, they will up the ante. They will increase the lies, fabrications and threats - and name-calling.
Just found out (Wiki), N.V. means "Naamloze Vennootschap" or loosely translated "public company" in the Netherlands and Suriname, among others.
No charge. Don't forget to tip your wait staff and bartenders.
Ben Carlson from a Wealth of Common Sense has good posts and interesting writer. He is one that honestly posts that financial advisor is basically a hand holding occupation to gently persuade customers to hold investments. He preaches to set up customers with assets based on their risk tolerance. Yes, index funds. He is not a market timer, but this link (below) has an interesting twist to market timing and it is Ben's. It's asset allocation changes. So, he advocates what I've posted here. Not that I knew anything just offering input to discuss on things I've read. He utilizes an array of financial benchmarks to pull high risk investments to lower risk and vice versa at certain times. I read of this from multiple sources, even one offered a Bob Brinker newsletter type of autopilot investing that I subscribed to for several months. $25/mo. Both Carlson and this guy were exactly the same. Makes me think his parent company Ritholtz Wealth Management developed a package for financial Advisors. They apparently support/supply the businesses. In my opinion it's just another marketing angle to gain customers for commissions. Heck, Bob Brinker may be using the same financial analysis. These retail financial advisors never bother to analysis the markets. They subscribe to services. On the other hand Bob may be just to cheap to improve his analytical abilities. These personality types think they call sell anything and do have a low opinion to those they sell to. If they display an arrogant attitude that his personality trait.
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/04/my-evolution-on-asset-allocation/
Having the fortune of three stocks of five abbreviated as FAANG...I should do quite well today if the Market continues on its opening bell path.
Gabe
The guests and books about 2008 are worthwhile and important because almost no one responsible was indicted, put on trial by the Obama/Holder DOJ
Trees, In Brinker's defense, he does hold the CFA, probably the most worthwhile designation in the investment analysis universe. It requires a rigorous curriculum and extensive testing, unlike the comparatively flimsy CFP or the other, even flimsier insurance-based designations.
Irwin, Their big political contributions to the Dems helped keep them out of jail.
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BWV… Please tell me where you got the information that Bob Brinker holds a CFA.
I have not been able to find any information about any actual degrees he holds.
Thanks....
From Trees: "These personality types think they call sell anything and do have a low opinion to those they sell to."
Speaking of selling, there was an article in the paper about people getting ripped off by a company selling other people's pensions. This company would find people receiving pensions and offer them a loan (lump sum) and in return the pensioner would turn over their pension payments to the shark. The shark would then peddle this loan thru financial advisors who would peddle it to their clients. The client would buy the loan (for another lump sum) and be entitled to a stream of interest payments at above market interest rates.
The shark company now seems to have closed up shop. Gee.
In the comment section after the article there was a lively discussion on who should go to jail, whether the victims were at fault for being greedy or too trusting, or uneducated, whether the gov't is doing enough, and on and on.
On Sunday Bob mentioned to a caller, who was unhappy about her low rate of interest (about 0.03-0.06%) at her local bank's money market savings account, to use Vanguard's Prime Money Market fund which is currently paying about 2%. The Prime MM fund is not FDIC insured, so would it still be considered a safe place to park emergency fund money? Thanks.
I researched Bob Brinker's credentials and he is a member of the CFA Institute and CFA of the Society of New York. Google Revolvy.
Gabe
Wow, how loathsome can these money people get. This stuff gets complicated with our justice system and to costly. Being of the Engineering profession I'm familiar with standards and codes. These devices aid quality and reduce cost. You know the quality of a fastener for example. Same for our fuel supply. We have electrical codes to ensure quality. These devices help producers and consumers by avoiding problems and easily inspecting to conformance. Now, for the life of me, I can't understand why the financial business is permitted to freelance. We only catch a problem if it blows up our personal wealth or the countries. These financial devices being sold to less informed public should be the normal zone for regulators to enforce agreed upon standards. It best not to utilize inept government employees to generate these standards, but those inside the business knowing full well the problems. Government should provide the mechanics to bring parties together. To police their own mess or risk losing their license to practice. This was talked about after the '08 debacle. To ask retired highly respected people like John Bogle to set on a commission to establish such standards. No the politicians wanted to do it themselves. To glorify themselves and government operations. There should be an approval process for any new financial device. It should then be listed, understood, and some mechanism to control quality.
Dearest Hottiebee,
Da Brink is not a CFA, however he sat n the advisory board for the CFA institute.
honestly I doubt he ever had the cognitive firepower to pass the CFA exams. They are tough. Not as hard as Actuarial exams but more rigorous than the CPA.
As an observation, Da Brink does not put CFA type analysis into his portfolios.
tfb, wo sat an passed the first two CFA exams before going the entrepreneur route.
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AHA! Thank you my always dependable cuddle-bunny. :)
Now I see what's happening. The people (guess who) that edit Wiki and other places where Brinker is discussed, are doing the usual spin a lie based on some truth.
Thank you!
comparatively flimsy CFP or the other, even flimsier insurance-based designations.
Got to disagree here. On an education basis I think the ChfC is head and shoulders above a CFP. And while the CFA is harder it has nothing to do with financial planning, it is investment/portfolio centric designation.
I would rate them as follows from lowest to highest:
AFC
CFS
CLU
CIMA
CFP
ChFC
CPA
LIFA
CFA
CIC
Note there are plenty more designations out there.
tfb
Stan, I think Vanguard Prime Money Market fund is a safe place to park money even though it has no FDIC guarantee.
Money Market safety: Like any well-run business, most do not want to lose customers. Their nightmare is "breaking the buck," where the normal share price of $1.00 drops to 99-97¢ or whatever. The better fund families (just going from memory here) have/would inject their own money into the fund to keep it at $1.00.
I believe there were a couple MMs during '08 that broke the buck, and during the '70s also I believe. During '08, it seems The Fed or some gov agency propped one or two of them up, just for stability's sake.
FWIW: I've used Vanguard Prime since 1990 to park cash for estimated tax payments, large insurance payments, etc. You can write checks on it for anything over $250. I've never given it one moment's thought about it not being "safe."
FRANKJ, NATASHA HERE,
Do you think Vanguard Prime Money Market has SPIC or SIPC, whichever? I tried to read the SIPC brochures, but they kept referring to "CASH", and no way I can tell if that means things like the Vanguard Federal money market fund (settlement account) and Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund, as well as their equivalents at Schwab and Fidelity. Good gravy@ what do you think?
I don't live in a city where BB broadcasts, but I used to, and I subscribed to the newsletter for a couple of years. I have learned a lot from BB,starting in the late 80s. Useful ideas and info include no-load mutual funds, Vanguard, term life, high liability insurance if you have teens, avoid shark attacks and annuities, hidden commissions on bond purchase, dollar-cost-investing, and of course, critical mass. Except for one stock pick (I can't recall the name) I felt he had no conflicts of interest. Not all advice was stellar, (yeah QQQ, and he was wrong about the interest trend, last few years), but I do check this blog to see what he has to say lately. Don't care about his political leanings. Red or Blue we all like Green $. I must have blogged here many years ago, because I still have the handle "Kate's dad." Kate is 45
Re; Money market safety.
LOL. The public is obviously fighting the spirit and intention of the regulatory changes that were attempted to be made.
Over time, it will open the eyes of investors who use money market funds. If the value of shares varies, the fear that comes from “breaking the buck” is removed. And by making the potential for investment losses clear, investors will think twice about putting money that they cannot afford to lose in these types of funds. source: Footnote #1
Of course they took the teeth out the proposed regulations by lobbying to have the rule on breaking the buck extended to only institutional funds. Which in my opinion has simply created a level of confusion for those in 401K plans etc that use institutional funds vs the retail equivalent.
Footnote:
#1 For more, see this articles.
https://qz.com/817142/the-new-rule-that-could-save-the-us-from-billions-in-bailouts/
The CFA is not a degree, it's a certificate for financial analysts that's earned after passing 3 rigorous exams. It's the only meaningful designation among financial analysts; some top portfolio managers hold this certificate. Brinker does CFA-style analysis, although market-timing is contrary to what they generally believe is valid. It may even be considered malpractice, but that's just a guess on my part. If I remember correctly, Brinker used CFA after his name in the promotional materials from his portfolio management venture. It's probably easy enough to check the CFA membership roster to verify this.
I will stand by my statement that CFP & ChFC are flimsy when compared to CFA. Financial planning is not rocket science and someone of average intelligence can learn the basics & pass CFP or ChFC exams after minimal studying. The boards controlling both designations make it sound rigorous, but it is just window dressing. I have met CFPs who really knew a lot about money management and were highly competent and some who were little more than glorified sales staff. The CFA is on a much higher level, as it should be, to ensure that a portfolio manager or analyst has sufficient background to make sound investment decisions. It's on a much higher level & is not even close. To help in distinguishing these, many of the Vanguard reps we talk to on the phone are CFPs (mine is). Some of the fund managers & some of the analysts are CFAs.
Bluce, It was in 1994 when a very few MMFs famously broke the buck during a period of high rate volatility, primarily because of their misuse of derivative instruments that they didn't really understand. This is a great example of why you'd want your fund managers to be competent.
When first entering working life I invested with IDS that became Ameriprise. Over time I just got frustrated with their financial people. They pushed a financial analysis that they hyped as computer simulation and so accurate. Being analytical temperament myself, I couldn't see the value of going over all my personal spending and income. The report was obsolete before the ink dried. The report offered no advice on how to get the job done. Coworkers that did bite, were at first enthused, but only learned to double their savings. There was no magic computer box after all. You could do as well with paper napkin and pencil. These credentialed experts had zero value when it came to making money within finances. Only to invest with them and trust their staff.
We the consuming public do have a immense challenge for wealth generation. Over a lifetime of decision making, the bad decisions will really destroy ones wealth. For most the financial info that is worthy, I would rate Dave Ramsey as excellent. For hard core advantage Mrmoneymustach would rank at the top of the list. Currently, all the info on Awealthofcommonsense is truly valuable to understand finances and how the industry functions. For example a podcast discussed the value of your home for investment. Some organisation did a thorough analysis of this. It was very poor. Just about the worst investment as far as investments go. Yet my local Realtors continuously stop by my rentals and stoke them on losing all their money on rent. Almost every young couple couple can't wait to blow a fortune on marriage ceremony, to buy a bigger house than their parents or peers and to obtain a more expensive car payment. Then they can boast of living the good life per the tv adds urging them to do so.
Some time ago I met successful financial coworkers. Older and smarter than myself and learned from them the value of economising. It's like the first rung of success. To avoid the crazy spending that the lure of new money provides. One foreman said that he started with nothing. Married his high school sweetheart on a dime and hand built his first small house and did so with no borrowing. He never had debt. Basically, that lifetime decision made him wealthy.
Re frankj shark company:That company was based in Henderson,NV. BB?
https://www.nvsos.gov/SOSEntitySearch/CorpDetails.aspx?lx8nvq=GR1Kh%252fKY9LQTr4B5Jf2RFQ%253d%253d
This link indicates Henderson, NV as the HQ of Future Income Payments. The article I read did not state where the company was HQ'd other than saying the address was a box number at a strip mall.
Natasha: I don't know if SIPC protection extends to funds in Prime Money Market. I never gave it much thought. I only use it as a temporary parking place. My understanding is the Prime MM can invest in a broad range of instruments while the Federal money market (the settlement account is limited to US Gov't issues). The federal settlement account has a current yield of about 1.85% and an expense ratio of 0.11% while the Prime MM is 2.06% yield and 0.16% expense ratio.
The fed really takes care of wall st. Wow. Should have started a trade war 20 years ago.
This morning some pundits on the business channels were trashing Trump over trade, but it appears that they may have some egg on their faces after Trump made some deals with the EU this afternoon.
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If you wondered why the market opened lower and ended way up:
Trump announces trade concessions from EU officials on soybeans, energy, tariffs
President Trump announced Wednesday that he has secured major trade concessions from European Union officials as part of an effort to head off a trade war between the U.S. and the E.U.
After talks at the White House with E.U. officials, Trump announced in a joint Rose Garden appearance that the delegation had agreed to increase imports of soybeans and liquefied natural gas. Both sides agreed to work toward the goal of "zero" tariffs and subsidies on non-auto industrial goods, and to "resolve" recent tariffs that both sides have imposed.
"This was a very big day for free and fair trade," Trump said.
Fox News Report
From Honeybee -
Message to Stinky: You hit the target over at Morningstar! LOL!
They pulled out all their big guns - whining, moaning and threatening me. Quite frankly, some of the threats sure remind me of what Bob Brinker used to say on Silicon Investor under an alias.
They are dying for me to respond. Hope they aren't holding their breath.
Of course, when they finally realize they aren't going to hear from me, they will up the ante. They will increase the lies, fabrications and threats - and name-calling.
------------------------
It's kind of fun posting occasionally over at Morningstar. Certain folks over there sure get riled up when the truth about Brinker is told.
I've often wondered whether some of the people posting on that Morningstar board are really Brinker, Brinker Jr., etc. under various aliases. They sure come back, especially at your posts, with a lot of venom.
I'll keep on posting over there every once in a while. Gotta keep that thread alive and in front of folks!
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Stinky....I'd be willing to bet a glass/cup of your favorite beverage that more than one of those aliases is Brinker and/or his son.
I can often recognize Brinker's writing because I have cataloged hundreds of his posts from Silicon Investor. I used to be able to recognize Jr's too, but I think his linguist wife has helped improve his writing skills.
The Brinker's have been whining about copyrights for almost 20 years - that I know of. That ploy has been very successful for them in several websites that they forced to cut off ALL Brinker discussions. Not because any laws were broken, but because it's easier to knuckle under to threats than chance a lawsuit.
I have to assume that after all these years, Google has ignored them - about me. Probably because I CLEARLY stay within FAIR USE laws - which I have carefully studied.
Note that someone even mentioned that it had worked on Morningstar in the past - near the beginning of the thread.
LOL @ "Stinky."
A while back I noted that "Stinky was diddling again." Maybe nobody picked up on it, but the maybe-too-subtle-comment meant that you were antagonizing the Blinker Blots on MorningMoon again.
Good work!
Honeybee,
Your service to all of those who view this blog is truly valued. You do an outstanding job each week of summarizing the program, and then patiently posting the many comments that come flooding in. You are fair, even-handed, and polite, even to those who are semi-hostile toward you.
You are truly a National Treasure.
Honeybee said:
I've often wondered whether some of the people posting on that Morningstar board are really Brinker, Brinker Jr., etc. under various aliases. They sure come back, especially at your posts, with a lot of venom.
Honeybee,
I would put big money on THAT Bob as being the instigator and author of 90% (or more) of the hate posts on M*.
Notes about money market funds . . .
Not sure about the Beloved Bunny Boy's link. Like probably half of time-sensitive news articles on the web, they are not dated -- which makes all of the content irrelevant. There is a date of October 24, 2016, but it is not clear if that is the date of the article or of the chart next to it.
At any rate, MM funds are really ultra-ultra short term bond funds. Because the duration is so short they can normally keep the share price at a consistent price of one dollar. And the better fund families will do what it takes to maintain that -- the last thing they want is people (and institutions) yanking out billions of dollars on a panic that the fund "broke the buck."
In "the days of yore," Vanguard Prime MM paid 5% interest. As I noted earlier I've used them since 1990, and have always had somewhere between $5-20k in it for large checks that I write from time to time. So after 28 years, if their share price dropped to 99 or 98 cents, I'm still ahead of the game.
And the odds of Vanguard allowing that to happen is somewhere between slim and none. "And I saw Slim headin' outta town at high noon." (thanks for that quip, Bob Brinker. Your little jokes are amusing).
You can buy regular short- or ultra-short term bond funds which offer check writing. When the check clears it is on the current NAV, which may be a penny or two above or below where it was the last time you looked.
IMO, MM paranoia is much ado about nothing. Maybe one is better off selling everything and buying guns, ammo, batteries, milk, and bread and "headin' fer dem dar hills." (where I already am, and have everything except bread).
Hey! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay.
I'm undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to new updates.
.
Honeys Buzz is my Twitter handle. But I warn you, if you simply want to be nasty, I will block you in a NY minute.
Has Bob Brinker made any comments about Facebook or Google (Alphabet) stocks that indicate his opinion about investing in them?
Whitney Tilson, the former hedge fund manager and now Warren Buffett fan, is very big on both Facebook and Alphabet stocks and has a number of articles/interviews on Yahoo.com over the past few days
thanks very much
Robert
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Robert...I don't recall Bob Brinker ever talking about Facebook or Google except as each of them went public, he was very negative about each one of them.
Well, Whitney has more to write about now given the downdraft on FB stock today.
Wasn't she the one who predicted a big meltdown in the municipal bond market some years ago?
As one of my favorite 3rd hour guests, Charlie Maxwell once said about his energy predictions: "if you're going to make predictions do so often."
Well, this is not encouraging:
Caution Hits Options Markets as Liquidity Fears Flare
By Gunjan Banerji
July 26, 2018 2:13 p.m. E
https://www.barrons.com/articles/caution-hits-options-markets-as-liquidity-fears-flare-1532628832
P.S.
Oh, and as luck would have it, the article mentions an ETF I currently own (IWM).
Hmmm. Now where did I put that bottle of "Jack?"
JC ʤ ⑬ ❶ ₪
So Bob Brinker was saying only fools, morons and idiots are in favor of protectionist trade policies. Jean-Claude Juncker the European Commission President evidently agrees with Brinker and decided rather than being a fool he would negotiate with Donald Trump for more equitable trade deals with the United States. Brinker will, of course, give Trump due credit for his part in the negotiations, no?
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MK....Isn't that amazing!?
The more Brinker says things can't be done, the more the President shows who the "fool, moron and idiot" really is.
It will be interesting to see this next GDP report. Brinker thinks he covered his arse by saying that it would be "better."
As for Brinker giving Donald Trump credit - now or ever - don't hold your breath. He hates him.
Blinker obviously has Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Somebody should help him away from the microphone (so he doesn't fall) and get him the help he needs.
"I'm feeling MUCH better now!"
Honeybee said...
"Robert...I don't recall Bob Brinker ever talking about Facebook or Google except as each of them went public, he was very negative about each one of them."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Looks like Brinker made a big mistake selling QQQ some years ago.....
That's been a fabulous investment
Robert
frankj said...
"Well, Whitney has more to write about now given the downdraft on FB stock today.
Wasn't she the one who predicted a big meltdown in the municipal bond market some years ago?
As one of my favorite 3rd hour guests, Charlie Maxwell once said about his energy predictions: "if you're going to make predictions do so often."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Frank, that was Meredith Whitney regarding the municipal bond market.
Whitney Tilson is a guy, a former hedge fund manager, now huge fan of Warren Buffett.
He's also a huge fan of Google (Alphabet stock) and Facebook. He says that very long term, both Google and Facebook are great investments. Do a search and you'll find a few articles by him on Yahoo.com over the past few days.
Regarding Charlie Maxwell, he was also one of my favorite 3rd hour guests. He explained things very well and seemed to have a very clear mind.
However, he's the one who got Bob Brinker excited about Suncor Energy, which is a stock Bob Brinker said to buy on at least 2 occasions, and hasn't done that well. It's currently in the "Individual Issues" section of Marketimer, rated "Hold", as all the Individual Issues are currently rated.
Robert
AMZN after hours earnings should lift the Market tomorrow.
Gabe
Honey, the 7/26/2018 Wall Street Journal has an article by Valentina Pop and Vivian Salama titled "Juncker's Trade Pitch to Trump: 'I Can Be Stupid, as Well'". The writers don't seem to want to give Trump credit for the negotiations taking a positive turn. They identify Larry Kudlow as an EU "ally" who had a lot to do with a tentative agreement being reached. It's funny to me that they identify Kudlow of Team Trump as an "ally" but not necessarily the team captain as an ally.
The writers also seem to think Trump is not a terribly intelligent guy. They make a point of quoting an EU official that the presentation to Trump "had to be very simple."
My opinion of Trump is that he is unpolished, brash and shoots from the hip. I think his detractors mistakenly interpret this as a lack of intelligence.
Whether Trump has ever read Proverbs 26:5, I do not know. But I believe he often answers fools according their follies and is therefore thought by some to be a fool himself.
I'd bet you will never get a sell from the markettimer. Those days are gone.
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MK....Personal opinion and analysis of President Donald J. Trump by various authors, is a dime a dozen and means absolutely nothing to me. The WSJ has mostly Trump-hating writers and seldom gives him a real break - with the truth.
So let's try to keep the comments about him within the realm of what he has done - or is doing - as it applies to things Brinker has said.
I have made it my business to KNOW what the President is saying and doing. I actually watched and listened to both of his wonderful speeches today. (Did you?)
And as for him reading Proverbs 26:5, I don't believer that applies to him any more than to you or I.
I happen to love his openness, and willingness to share his thought. I wouldn't want it any other way.
If you are interested in knowing more about my personal opinions of him, you can read what I post at Silicon Investor
Otherwise, your commentary about him is DONE!
The Proverbs 26:5 verse refers to a time when it important to call a fool out and do so with the fools own words. The need is to correct the fools error. So, yes Trump appears to use that wisdom.
This talk of Trump being less intelligent and all the rest negative connotations of the man. First if I remember correctly every Right side Executive is described that way. Nothing new here. Citizens are so use to political speak and no action. Some actually rate their clever politicians upon slippery lawyer talk that sounds so important, but in reality does nothing except stoke their partison's rage.
Kevin O'Leary was a big fan/investor of Facebook. It was marketing and captured fan base he was most impressed with. Yes, there was talk on the growth of FANGS and that they may be classified as value stock as they still have such growth potential. Also, investors are starting to realize just how much these companies have skewed fund historical growth data.
I heard one analyst defend Netflix growth vs expenditures. Investors must think in terms of international growth. The company has a small slice, but one can witness a paradigm shift in media going on that won't soon stop. These companies have all the right stuff and all at the right time. But, the market is efficient and all that is factored into the price.
You would think S&P fund would do better than total market during these FANGS growth years. Not so. Funny, that Contra fund does so well with William Danoff managing. High load, but not to bad given the 2%-3% higher returns as compared to general index fund over the last 16 years or so. They are rated low risk per the -38% drop in '08. Who knows what they will do in the next recession? They describe themselves as growth and value type of fund. Their holding look like momentum stock with highest rate of growth companies. They had or still have Tesla. The companies they pick are the best of the best, so owning quality often lowers risk. This may be a good fund to speculate instead of owning stock directly? Wellington has quality stocks that pay higher dividends. Since in retirement, that is about my limit on speculation. Seventy percent stocks is a good place to be given lower expected return on income funds. I think they went down 22% in '08.
BTW- read an interesting analysis of S&P index. How many new companies enter the index and then fall out. This may explain why the total market index such as VTI beats the S&P. A smaller company will shoot into the index as an outlier income year only to fall back to normal earnings. S&P buys the stock at the wrong time. The total market holds stocks longer during ups an downs, so the index picks up value factor.
Liquidity- that would greatly affect the spread I'm guessing. I try to buy on down day and sell on an up day. It doesn't have to be much change, but it should impact the spread or cost of transaction. Selling on a rip roaring sell off would be horrible. If one truly wanted out better to wait for the eventual bump up that almost always appears. Also, good to be in a large fund.
QQQ, IWM, IJR, FCNTX- It looks like QQQ had some bad years after dot com bust. Wow, Brinker bought at the wrong time. FCNTX went through that time without much downside. I would trust this fund for high return speculation. Over time it sure beat the pants off of QQQ.
That's the problem with high teck and vaporware. Think of how much experience upon supply chain does Walmart have. How susceptible Amazon is in this regard. Know that Walmart current mission is to go directly at the throat of Amazon. Does GOOGLE have much expertise to go into these other investments. No. Netflix could be bumped off given the money and competition with fickle consuming public that doesn't have brand loyalty. Consumers are getting sick of Apple high prices and their flaming CEO.
IWM vs IJR- IJR has a better return over the life of these funds, but can really drop and rise. Volatility. The six fund portfolio I mentions has IJR. Interesting to see the individual investments with high volatility come together for impressive stable return year after year. So, far this year the portfolio has been on track. Currently, its growth rate is lower as compared to other funds in this bull market, but the overall stability continues to average at 10% CAGR most of the time. The gold portion should protect investment during a Black Swan event. The port contains 30% long term government bonds. Go figure.
rjb112, thanks for the correction on Whitney. Suncor, I never paid any attention to that trade, but good info there too. In the energy area I like Enbridge, a Canadian based pipeline outfit; Valero, a large, US based independent refiner; and Kinder Morgan, KMI a large pipeline operator that has had a bad time in the market but I believe they will work their way out of it.
I have some $ in pipeline companies because I like the infrastructure element of the bidness, they pay a pretty good dividend. They're like a toll taker in that if you want to get your product from here to there, you have to use them. Some pipeline companies are MLPs but I avoid these to keep tax time simple.
Anonymous FAKE Jerrod Clarkson said...
Mad as HELL !,
You're right! They say horrible things!
I could just scream!
JC ¥ ® ¶ £
July 26, 2018 at 3:54 PM
--------------------------------------------------
Hey FAKE "Jerrod" I see you are IMPERSONATING me again.
Are you aware that EVERY TIME you do that it enables me to discover more about you?
"Interesting" facts, indeed! Local, State and Federal Law Enforcement and my Attorneys are finding them "interesting" also!
Please consider this your First and Last Cease and Desist Request.
Best regards,
JC ₥ № ⓳ FAKE JERROD, YOU ARE SO BUSTED! ② Ḱ Óœ
----------------------------------------------------
PS: FAKE Jerrod, thanks for participating in my Tracking Symbols Contest!
PPS: BUSTED! Slang for being caught doing something illegal.
4% gdp go USA!
Anti tariff anyone ?
FYI https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-senate-quietly-votes-cut-140904840.html
What happened to the Market?
Gabe
Reruns this weekend. I would put 4% on that!😀
Nice GDP, E.U. trade news, Korean War remains coming home.... too much for Bob to take.
Pavlov’s Cat
In spite of the Market....AMZN gains 0.5%! What a stock!
Gabe
Pavvy: I would put $4,000 on Binky being a no-show Sunday.
4.1% GDP groegrrate in 2nd quarter, 1st quarter revised upward to 2.2% rate...record Federal revenue following a reduction in tax rates...and low unemployment across the board. In other words, the opposite of what Bob, Paul Krugman, the previous administration and Mrs Bill Clinton said would occur. Tomorrow should be a great opening monologue.
I'll fill in for Mr Brinker:
The past week was a yawner in the stock markets and the GDP came in as expected at 4.1%. All economists worth their salt agree that this is a blip and unsustainable.
The Federal Open Market Committee is having a pajama party sleep-over this week and I expect them to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged ...
"Blogger Bluce said...
Pavvy: I would put $4,000 on Binky being a no-show Sunday."
Bluce, I will see your bet and would raise you by ⅙ bitcoin, and 1 (used) issue of MarkeTimer from July, 1996.
The MarkeTimer used issue is quite valuable, as it was "autographed" by my pet macaw named "Delman"!
;-)
I think Brinker will be live on Sunday. I'll put my bet down for his absence the following Sunday. That's right after the jobs report and Brinker won't feel like talking about all the manufacturing jobs that are being created. He always felt those jobs were be gone forever because of globalization.
Also, anyone remember a year ago when Brinker claimed that we need much more immigration to support a higher GDP? Well we just got a higher GDP without mass immigration.
Mad as HELL! I'll take that bet, but I don't want the July 1996 MarkeTimer -- it is identical to the current issue! (excluding the autograph)
You'll have to offer me something better than that.
Bluce,
You can't "customize" my wager. Nice try, but c'mon, you know better than that!
Mad: Seeing as good ol' Bill Flanagan is no longer with us, I'll take the bottle of whiskey that Binky would be paying him to fill in tomorrow.
That's on top of the $4,000 and 6 bitcoins, of course.
That's the deal pal, take it or leave it!
Made a few bucks this past trading week despite the volatility of the Market.
Gabe
You nailed it, SuziePie. Just record it and you won't even have to do the show live.
I'm entertaining family and friends for two Sundays in a row, so Imma hoping Binky takes a dive tomorrow.
If not, I know I can catch anything important here. TIA Honey!
Gosh, talk about a good idea run amuck.
Now that all the comments are on the front page, the formerly reserved and succinct wisdom-ists are now the most prolific soapboxers with long axes to grind, apparently.
But who cares? Nobody will read this fodder late on a Saturday night as the sparkling electric anticipation of a new MoneyHungry show tomorrow (my wife's term) is crackling just over the horizon with thunderstorms and tornados riding shotgun.
Maybe that's why he's still on the air. He entices with the dream of riches.
Oh yes, the tragedy of the Suncor purchase is his new tattoo. He advised to purchase at $22, it went quickly to $44, so of course he had visions of another Microsoft. He didn't sell after doubling the investment, but it slowly slid back to $32 with help from the OBama admin. and the anti-pipeline green crowd, his friends. Now it languishes. But if you ask, he'll say, "It's a good dividend." Should've sold, quick and dirty. Right stock, wrong execution.
Brinker is ALWAYS ON the air the Sunday before his newsletter comes out.
Brinker will be live today.
He will make a point of explaining why the GDP growth for 2nd q was 2.8% and not the 4.1% month over month annualized figure.
He will also put the figure of 2nd q mom $183B output increase in perspective relative to the growing fiscal deficit.
The Brink will have a good time with this. He will not want to miss this opportunity to crow.
frankj said...
rjb112, thanks for the correction on Whitney. Suncor, I never paid any attention to that trade, but good info there too. In the energy area I like Enbridge, a Canadian based pipeline outfit; Valero, a large, US based independent refiner; and Kinder Morgan, KMI a large pipeline operator that has had a bad time in the market but I believe they will work their way out of it.
I have some $ in pipeline companies because I like the infrastructure element of the bidness, they pay a pretty good dividend. They're like a toll taker in that if you want to get your product from here to there, you have to use them. Some pipeline companies are MLPs but I avoid these to keep tax time simple.
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Frank, I bought Suncor on Bob Brinker's Marketimer advice. Brinker in turn recommended it based on Charlie Maxwell's advice, but I'm sure Brinker did his own careful studying/due diligence.
Brinker made the Suncor recommendation in Marketimer on a minimum of 2 occasions.
Over the last few years, it seems as if Brinker doesn't want to talk about the Suncor recommendation. All he does is list the stock in the "Individual Issues" list, and state that all individual issues are rated hold.
To me that's a cop out. He should at least make some comments about the stock including his personal opinions about it, for the sake of those who bought it on his Marketimer advice. To me Brinker is shirking his responsibility to paid Marketimer subscribers
That has not been a good investment, compared to just buying and holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market index.
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