STOCK MARKET: As 2011 comes to a close, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk and Marketimer views continue to be very bullish going forward into 2012. His portfolios remain fully invested, and he recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new stock market money. These quotes are from a recent Barron's article (LINK):
– Bob Brinker (Bob Brinker’s Marketimer) — Brinker writes: “In our view, the S&P 500 index (SPY) has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012. On a valuation basis, using our conservative operating earnings estimate of $101 for next year, a price/earnings multiple of 14 would enable the S&P 500 index to reach the low-to-mid 1400s level.”
Brinker adds:
“We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase in the event the index returns to the area of the correction lows in the low-1100s. Above that range we suggest a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market money.”
BEWARE: Be aware that according to a Forbes article (LINK), Bob Brinker couldn't have been more wrong going into the 2008 bear market. He could be wrong again. Excerpts:
"Finally, index investors were saved from countless terrible market calls made by so-called experts. Here is a sample of bad advice that torpedoed the savings of many people:
- Bob Brinker couldn’t have been more off the mark with his market prediction in late 2007. “The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P 500 index.” The S&P 500 collapsed 37 percent in 2008."
INTEREST RATES/BOND INVESTING: Brinker's advice is to stay short-term when buying bond funds. He is still recommending the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund (VFIIX) and Vanguard High-Yield Fund (VWEHX) on Moneytalk and includes both funds in his Marketimer income portfolio.
GOLD AND SILVER: Even though Brinker calls gold a "speculative metal," he recommends GLD (a gold bullion ETF) for those who want to own precious metals as a hedge against the dollar. This year on Moneytalk, he also stated that silver could also be used as a hedge. He is emphatically against buying numismatic coins. Brinker added GLD to his Marketimer off-the-books recommended issue list in May, 2009. He has never given any price guidance.
OIL: Brinker has made one recommendation for an oil stock on Moneytalk and that is the Canadian Company, Suncor (SU). In May, 2009, he added SU to his Marketimer off-the-books list of individual stock recommendations.
TREASURYS: Moneytalk in November, Bob said: "I think if you're going to be invested in Treasurys at this juncture, you have to have a hold-to-maturity approach....If you go out and buy a Treasury today at these historically low yields....If you buy a ten year Treasury at 2.06 and at any point down the line, rates normally, then rates would not be 2%....If you were to see higher yields you would see a reduction in the value of the principal that you paid for the Treasury....I think you do run the risk of seeing these securities go under water sometime in the next ten years."
NO RECESSION: Moneytalk in November, Bob said: ""My estimate is that we will see growth again in the fourth quarter, which means, where's the recession? ........One of things that amazes me about the private firms that are forecasting a recession in here is their conviction. I mean they talk about it like it's a fait accompli. They talk about it like it's for sure -- take it to the bank. Well I'm not taking it to the bank. What do you think about that? I think these forecasters are wrong, but I'll look forward to their apology....this is Moneytalk."
23 comments:
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund TLT jumped 25% in 2011.
A fund that bets against long-term Treasury bonds – the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF TBT, plunged 48%, on top of a 26% drop in 2010.
SPDR Exchange Traded Funds Dividend Distributions.
Lawrence McDonald who has been on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk at least two times, made an appearance on CNBC this morning and gave his views on which sectors to watch in 2012. He says financials should so well:
CNBC video
McDonald wrote "Colossal Failure of Common Sense: the inside story of the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
McDonalds' Twitter feed. He follows Honeysbuzz
Brinker said:
"In our view, the S&P 500 index (SPY) has the potential to trade into the low to mid 1400's range in 2012."
One problem with these types of forecasts I think, is that the index would only have to trade in that range for one day for Brinker to be technically correct. The REAL key of course is where does it go from there?
Here in 2011 the S&P traded as high as 1370 but that means very little right now. I would much prefer Brinker to say he thinks the market will return "x" percent in 2012. Some may ask:"Is there a difference?" I think there is.
Brinker always chooses the words that give him the most "wiggle room".
happy new year honeybee... going to miss going to my local bank and buying I bonds ...all banking institutions stop selling them jan 2012... will not buy online..like the certificate... my brother told me that facebook is selling IPO's so I will check that out... thats for the site
Weekly Jobless Claims Drift Higher; Still Below Key Level
Published: Thursday, 29 Dec 2011 | 8:38 AM ET
By: Reuters
Jim said: "The REAL key of course is where does it go from there?"
Jim,
Excellent point. And as you said, when Bob Brinker sets a goal, such as "low-to-mid 1400 range in 2012," what is he inferring?
Is he inferring that is a good time to sell because it will then retreat, or is it just going to trade there forever. :)
To my knowledge, he has never given any explanation.
Bartee said: "I bonds ...all banking institutions stop selling them jan 2012... will not buy online..like the certificate..."
Hi Bartee,
I looked online for more information about this and could not find it. Perhaps someone else will know more about it.
Sure wonder WHY banks will stop selling I-bonds. Maybe it's just another step toward a paperless society.
Market Performance During the Last Week of the Year
__from 1928 to 2010.
Brinker got em into gold right at the top.
Will be no questions on gold this week.
Joey
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund TLT jumped 25% in 2011.
----
Brinker got your out of long bonds right before they were going up 20%+ a year for 5 years.
Thanks Bob. My cat bird seat is looking up at money market returns.
Joey
For those interested in Treasury Direct. News announcement at this link, http://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pressroom/pressroom_comotcend0711.htm
Denver Demon Dog
Denver Demon Dog,
Here is your link:
Treasury Direct
Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders: U.S. Stocks Have the Edge in 2012
Unbelievably, the S&P ended the year right where it started:
NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market ended a tumultuous year right where it started
In the final tally, despite big climbs and falls, unexpected blows and surprising triumphs, all the hullabaloo proved for naught. On Friday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 1,257.60. That's exactly 0.04 point below where it started the year.
"If you fell asleep January 1 and woke up today, you'd think nothing had happened," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. "But it's been up and down all year. It's been crazy."
Read More
As was so eloquently pointed out in the Forbes article (see the link on the front page under "Beware"), Bob Brinker could not have been more wrong in the 2008 megabear market.
Did that stop him from starting all over again with the same market-timing snake oil? Nope! he simply waited until the stock market looked like it had safely turned up and issued a some more new "buying opportunity" signals.
My old side-kick and friend (that I miss a lot) wrote this about what Brinker could be expected to do after the market dropped in half in 2008. And time has proven him right on -- as usual.
On November 21, 2008, Will L. wrote:
Brinker's Hobson's choice
Brinker has to be viewed as a total incompetent in his ability to forecast bear markets and avoid them for subscribers who pay him a fee.
Indeed he has compounded the proof of his incompetence with his bombastic attacks on those "bad news bears" and "false prophets" and "cassandras" who were bearish in the 1400s, and according to Brinker, ruining people's finanical portfolios by scaring them out of the stock market.
Today the market is about half what it was when Brinker was blasting those bears--just about 5 months ago.
To further show his ignorance and prove once and for all that his "buying opportunities" were nothing more than a parlor trick, Brinker has with pomp and ceremony on several occasions picked a bottom or "buying opportunity" only to watch the market fall another 100 ponts or more and pick another one; pretending never to have picked several higher.
Now he's shell-shocked and retreated to a hole like a prarie dog who knows there are hunters on the hills above him. He talks about politics and energy and automobile problems, but he seldom mentions what he once claimed to be an expert in--the equity market. The only time he does these days; he skips over his own obvious incompetence and the plethora of failed "bottoms" he has called previously and talks about doing his "work" in "identifying a bottom". And until then $ cost average LOL.
Well you can usually bet on Brinker being a creature of habit and predictable; except for the QQQ debacle. You could predict his rather qualified and somewhat bogus "re-entry" call in March 2003. He was afraid he had missed the lows--he did, they were in Oct 2002 -- and wanted badly to get into the market. The Iraq war worked the last time so it was likely he would take another shot on the opening of hostilities.
Now the market is below where it was when it worked the last time in 2003. Brinker would like to put something in writing with some hoopla--not to much in case we go to 400--claiming this is a buying opportunity. The "point" could be spun later to make it sound like a big deal to new listeners who were unaware of the fact that Brinker was bullish all the way from 1575 to wherever this debacle ends.
Now of course such a call will not sit well with those who took the last call in 2003 and have now taken more than a round trip. It will seem to slick by half. But that is what Brinker often is. A tricky fellow QQQuite often hard to pin down.
He has to start a whole new bunch of goobers and geezers now. He is going to lose those with a brain when the subscription is up. He has really nothing to lose to throw up another buying point and hope it sticks.
November 21, 2008 9:07 AM
Honey here: And indeed, Brinker DID start a whole new bunch of goobers and geezers" the only way possible, and that is by staying on the radio when he is years past retirement age.
As Brinker often says, "It's for the young sprouts." He must forget that his young sprouts are middle-aged now.
Honey, this is Jim in SF, CA. Thanks for the update. I monitor your reporting on Brinker, mostly because you are without question the best source. I am still curious what he's up to now, though I give him zero credibility. I am appreciate your work, but I am curious why you continue to devote as much energy and work as you do to monitoring Brinker. I find Brinker incredibly boring at best, and extremely offensive at worst. His political views are a complete disaster for me, and he is a huge hypocrite. For me, one of the greatest wonders of the modern world is that as many people continue to follow Brinker after his complete miss on the market since December 2007. I am curious regarding what his long term results have been for his 3 portfolios. 2011 was essentially flat for the S&P 500 index, which paid a dividend of a little more than 2%. I had a terrible year due to holding a large portfolio of bank preferred stocks, which melted down with the market correction and fear over Europe. Even with large losses in my portfolio due to falling prices, I managed to earn 0.2% on my average portfolio balance, so I'm overall happy and cannot complain. I still will never trust Brinker's advice again and, as I say, I can't imagine how anyone would.
trust brinker ! what about that cramer guy ! now that would be a debate worthy of the hairful one THE DONALD Thank's to brinker i start my new career ( wait for it } WELCOME TO WALMART. to all merry new year from high atop BRINKER MT. my new trusted adviser the 8 ball
Jim in San Francisco wrote: "I am appreciate your work, but I am curious why you continue to devote as much energy and work as you do to monitoring Brinker"
Hi Jim,
Sure appreciate your interesting comments. I do devote time to listening to the show and then writing the summaries. The reason I do this is because I despise deception, and I believe that deception is broadcast on national airwaves every time Bob Brinker is on the air.
My goal is to INFORM and EDUCATE by telling the whole truth.
To my knowledge this is the only place on the internet where one can find out Bob Brinker's true market-timing history.
It is not available in Marketimer, and it certainly is not heard on Moneytalk.
One cannot even find it in libraries because in year-2000, after the QQQ disaster-trade, the Brinker's stopped allowing libraries to subscribe to Marketimer.
I have copies of all Marketimers going back to January, 2000. If I could find earlier copies, I would willingly pay a nominal fee and shipping for them.
I listen to every show and record his main points. Brinker cannot cover up anything from me like he does with casual listeners.
I have been personally attacked and threatened, but I cannot be stopped as long as he is on the air -- fishing for new suckers.
Jim, you mentioned Brinker's long-term record. Even that is distorted because he has not accounted for the QQQ trade in his model portfolios, even though he used cash reserves from them.
HB: "Jim, you mentioned Brinker's long-term record. Even that is distorted because he has not accounted for the QQQ trade in his model portfolios, even though he used cash reserves from them."
You may have forgotten but the "only" place on the internet that actually calculated this is at Effect of QQQ Advice on Bob Brinker's Reported Model Portfolio Returns
I've TRIED to post Brinker's actual record for internet readers since 1997. I am sure you remember we had tens of thousands (literally) of discussion posts removed from a site after I left and the threat of "I'll quit if those are ever removed" vanished. That is why we started SEVERAL Brinker related blogs... places where hopefully the record will remain no matter how many nasty notes and threatening letters are sent.
Kirk said: "I am sure you remember we had tens of thousands (literally) of discussion posts removed from a site after I left....."
You bet I remember. That was another case of the gestapo for Bob Brinker taking advantage of an opportunity to pressure a website into destroying recorded history about Bob Brinker.
As you said, Suite 101 wiped out tens of thousands of posts that went back to 1999 when you offered a "lifeline" to those who treated like dogs at the Brinker message boards.
It was there that you let me set up my own thread, the original Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz. That was also wiped out.
Shortly after you decided to stop working for Suite 101, they wiped out all the archived threads about Brinker.
This destruction happened without any warning whatsoever, even though they promised to give us warning so we could copy what we wanted.
I was personally told via email not to ever start another thread about Bob Brinker at Suite 101 or my membership would be terminated.
I was personally told that if I ever mentioned his name again that it would have to be in the most casual manner and interspersed into threads about other subjects.
I was personally told that the reason for the new rules was because of certain "emails" that Suite 101 had received and supposed threats of copyright violations.
This same kind of threat was made against Fundalarm and they too capitulated and made discussion of Bob Brinker off limits.
To my knowledge, you are the only person who had the courage to tell the Brinker's to take a flying leap when they demanded that you censor your site.
And yes, you set up my first blog, mentored me and taught me the ropes for a couple of years. Are you proud of the job I'm doing now that I have my own wings -- so to speak?
Yes, you have done well young Skywalker!
What amazes me is the major financial media continues to ignore Brinker. They could hold his feet to the fire for so many issues but I guess they figure it would scare off their advertisers who are often no better.
Here is the latest... Doesn't Brinker pride himself on his show for recommending low cost funds and market timing? Well, then tell me why the latest one he added has 5 to 10 times the annual expenses of the under performing fund he recommends selling to buy it? If he REALLY thought that fund would outperform, then why not put ALL the index fund money into it? Also, why not buy it two years ago before it beat the index fund? It is hard to beat index funds 3 years in a row after two very strong years.... Da simple answer is it is there AFTER the fact to take calls about on his show... people will look it up and see it has done great the past two years while the fund he sold to buy it has returned far less.... but they won't know he only now added it to the fund! Or they will pay up to see what other "hot tips" are offered. Hopefully someone will come back in a year and three years to compare how well the fund he sold did compared to this new fund, especially after 12b1 fees...
Kirk,
You asked some GREAT questions that you answer by asking them.
This new fund that Bob Brinker has added to the three "official" Marketimer portfolios has done well since it started just a couple of years ago.
I will reserve my comments on this subject until after next week's show. I really don't want to influence anything that Brinker may say regarding the new fund.
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