Friday, December 23, 2011

December 23, 2011, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Lastest Forecasts

December 23, 2011...Where does Bob Brinker stand on the markets and the economy right now?

STOCK MARKET: As 2011 comes to a close with only four more days of stock market trading, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk and Marketimer views continue to be very bullish going forward into 2012.  His portfolios remain fully invested, and he recommends dollar-cost-averaging for new stock market money.
 October 4, 2011,  Marketimer, Page 3; Paragraph 4; Bob Brinker said: "In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012. Our Marketimer model portfolios are fully invested."
 
INTEREST RATES/BOND INVESTING: Brinker's advice is to stay short-term when buying bond funds.   He is still  recommending the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund (VFIIX) and  Vanguard High-Yield Fund (VWEHX) on Moneytalk and includes both funds in his Marketimer income portfolio.

GOLD AND SILVER: Even though Brinker calls gold a "speculative metal," he recommends GLD (a gold bullion ETF) for those who want to own precious metals as a hedge against the dollar. This year on Moneytalk, he also stated that silver could also be used as a hedge. He is emphatically against buying numismatic coins.   Brinker added GLD to his Marketimer off-the-books recommended issue list in May, 2009. He has never given any price guidance.

OIL: Brinker has made  one recommendation for an oil stock on Moneytalk and that is the Canadian Company, Suncor (SU).   In May, 2009, he added SU to his  Marketimer off-the-books list of individual stock recommendations.

TREASURYS: Moneytalk in November, Bob said: "I think if you're going to be invested in Treasurys at this juncture, you have to have a hold-to-maturity approach....If you go out and buy a Treasury today at these historically low yields....If you buy a ten year Treasury at 2.06 and at any point down the line, rates normally, then rates would not be 2%....If you were to see higher yields you would see a reduction in the value of the principal that you paid for the Treasury....I think you do run the risk of seeing these securities go under water sometime in the next ten years."

NO RECESSION: Moneytalk  in November,  Bob said: ""My estimate is that we will see growth again in the fourth quarter, which means, where's the recession? ........One of things that amazes me about the private firms that are forecasting a  recession in here is their conviction. I mean they talk about it like it's a fait accompli. They talk about it like it's for sure -- take it to the bank. Well I'm not taking it to the bank. What do you think about that? I think these forecasters are wrong, but I'll look forward to their apology....this is Moneytalk." 

8 comments:

john said...

regarding bobs recession comments in nov aking those that predicted a recession to apologize. How about him apologizing for being bullish all through the bear market causing thousands of people who follow his advice to lose money. its different for him though as he is an elitist like a lot of our reps and senators. Do as i say not as i do(hypocrites)

john said...

please Bob dont be a hypocrite you advised people to buy the market all through the bear.(where is your apology)

Honeybee said...

Bob Brinker's one oil stock recommendation is Suncor (SU).

Brinker's recommendation on this one stock has been all over the place since May 2009 when he first added it to his Marketimer off-the-books individual issues list. Let's look a year-2011:

* January, February = "Attractive for purchase below $33." (Price @ $38.29)

* March = Hold (price @ $47)
* April = Hold (Price @ $44.84)
* May = Hold (Price @ $46.04
* June = Hold (Price @ $41.90
* July = Hold (Price @ $39.10)
* August = Hold (Price @ $38.22)

* September = "upgraded to buy under $33" AGAIN! LOL!

* October = "Suncor Energy (SU) is rated attractive for purchase." (Price @ $25.44)

* November = "rated attractive for purchase below $33." (Price @ $31.91)

* December = "attractive for purchase" (Price @ $30.02)


Yesterday, SU closed at $28.69, Just ONE DOLLAR more than Brinker's original May 2009 buy price. But if you bought at $32.99 (below $33), you are underwater over 10%.

Wash, rinse, wash, rinse. Is it a joke?

Anonymous said...

SU is just like those other recommendations of Brinker's. It's all off the books and doesn't really matter anyway.

How long as MSFT been on that list? Forever! Brinker never issues a sell once it goes on the list.

It's just a footnote talking point if the stock happens to go up.

I don't think about really pays any attention to that list at all.

Nordica

Honeybee said...

Nordica,

You are correct. Bob Brinker has had DVY on that list for many years.

During the hay days, he would brag about how well it was doing. He even told a caller that it could be considered even better than SPY because it had such a good dividend.

YIKES! Anyone who bought and held like Brinker recommends on his list, has been slaughtered.

He'll never mention it again.

Honeybee said...

If Bob Brinker had recommmended Brent Oil ETF (BNO) instead of Suncor, his subscribers would be up 20% this year.

Tom Lydon wrote:

"An exchange traded fund that tracks Brent crude futures is up nearly 20% this year while the WTI version is in negative territory with the outperformance driven by Middle East tensions.

U.S. Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is up 19.6% year to date."


Read more at Seeking Alpha

Anonymous said...

I have been listening since !986 and in New York locally as well. He has made me reach critical mass. He's very smart.

Honeybee said...

Anonymous who didn't sign his post.

So you've listened to Moneytalk since 1986, huh?

So did you follow all of Bob Brinker's advice or just pick and choose what to follow? :)