According to numbers posted on bobbrinker.com and published in the November Marketimer (many thanks to Jeffchristie for figuring the percentages for me). Net asset value year-to-date:
Model portfolio I: YTD = down 2.3%Portfolio III, which is balanced, containing both stock and bond funds, is up 0.3% YTD.
Model portfolio II: YTD = down 2.4%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund YTD = up 0.4%
Brinker's buy and hold investing since 2003 has left his two stock model portfolios still underwater from where they were at the S&P 500 all-time-high in October 2007.
16 comments:
Does he list a beta for the portfolios?
tfb
I have listened to Bob in the past and agreed that no load investing was the best way to go. I have been investing for the last 25 years in no load funds selecting my own mgrs and funds and except for being in the total stock mkt fund have ignored the other brinker choices.I have done ok nothing great except for yacktman fund and n+B genesis which have done well. Going forward i think it is a great time to dollar cost avg into these funds as the income you get from other sources is very small.Bob Brinker gives you the frame work like building a house and you go out and hire contractors to customize it for yourself.
Probably Brinker's under performance is because of those foreign funds you talked about the other day.
Did you see that most of the bond fund managers like Bill Gross are also under performing the market because they bet wrong.
I guess it is the long term that counts.
AFEw
Fed downgrades growth forecasts, sees high unemployment for years ahead
Fluffy asked: "Does he list a beta for the portfolios?"
Not to my knowledge, but perhaps someone can help us with the question.
I do know that in Hulbert financial Digest, the average of the three model portfolios (one portfolio is theoretically 50% bonds) is listed as "78.4" in the Overall Performance category. (That's against the Wilshire 5000.)
Here is what Hulbert says about his method of risk-adjusting:
"Risk-Adjusted Rating -- Monthly performance per unit of risk, calculated using the Sharpe Ratio. Other things being equal, a higher number here is preferable."
John,
Yes, on Moneytalk, Bob Brinker does give you the nuts and bolts of no-load, low-cost investing in index funds.
Based on the numbers I just posted, that is BETTER than the advice he charges for in Marketimer.
AFEw,
What do you mean long-term? Bob Brinker's two stock model portfolios are still down from where they were in 2007.
So much for the past four years. If you paid for his advice and actually followed one of his model portfolios, you have spent four years underwater.
But Bob Brinker made some money off you during those four years: 4 X 185 = $740. Times how many?
Now want to go for a longer time frame or shorter. Year-to-date, you would be ahead if you simply bought VTSMX and ignored it.
tfb said:
Does he list a beta for the portfolios?
Portfolio 1: 1.08
Portfolio 2: 1.06
Portfolio 3: 0.65
Not all Brinker advice is bad. I followed his recommendation to buy I-Bonds in Oct. 2001 that paid a fixed rate of 3%. (at the then max of 60K - 30K for me and 30K for spouse). Nov 2001 fixed rate went down to 2% and since that time the fixed rate has gradually dwindled to 0. Current rate on these bonds for this month is 7.67%. Happy with these bonds for sure! Current total value over 103K.
RGT
"So much for the past four years. If you paid for his advice and actually followed one of his model portfolios, you have spent four years underwater."
How about ten years? Didn't we just go through a decade of no returns for the total stock market? I thought I read somewhere that the buy and hold investor didn't make a thing during that time. Even if you count the dividends.
I think they call that a secular bear market where it does nothing for a long time.
AFEw
Jim,
Thanks!! Awesome!
Yikes, this happened near the Santa Cruz Wharf:
Thursday, November 3, 2011 9:23am PDT
Lunging humpback whale nearly swallows up surfer, kayaker
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com
A woman on a surfboard and two people aboard a kayak were nearly engulfed by a humpback whale that charged out of the water, its mouth agape, just a few feet away. Barb Roettger's video of the amazing encounter, which occurred near Santa Cruz, Calif., was posted Wednesday. The incident is one of several recent close calls in the area, where a small pod of humpback whales has been surface lunge-feeding on anchovies unusually close to shore. They've become a major draw for kayakers and boaters and at least one kayaker has been capsized, and a sailboat was struck by a whale. This circus atmosphere has led to an enforcement presence in an attempt to keep people at a safe distance from the potentially dangerous leviathans.
See the video
re: anonymous comment about "reading about the secular bear"
don't believe everything you read and hear.
my portfolio is / has been roughly 60/40 tilted to equities in low cost balanced funds. from 10/31/01 to 10/31/11 it is up 53% and that's after a withdrawal of approx 1% each year.
td in dallas
"my portfolio is / has been roughly 60/40 tilted to equities in low cost balanced funds. from 10/31/01 to 10/31/11 it is up 53% and that's after a withdrawal of approx 1% each year."
I bet that 53% return over 10 years is mostly because of the 40% you have in bonds. You would have done even better if you had 100% in bonds over the past decade.
When I mentioned the secular bear market I am talking about the stock market, not the bond market
AFEw
It depends on what you buy. Some equity portfolios have done well and others have not.
Since October 15, 2000 when Bob Brinker recommended QQQQ to his investors for up to half their cash reserves, my newsletter explore portfolio is up 59.0% while his QQQQ, is down 28.1%.
You can see why I recommended THEN and continue to recommend today my Explore Portfolio over Bob's QQQQ.
Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice and Effect of QQQ Advice on Reported Model Portfolio Results
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