Thursday, November 3, 2011

November 3, 2011....Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary of Latest Guest-Speaker



 November 3, 2011....Guest blog writer, pen-name FrankJ, has a real treat for us this week. He has written a summary of the third hour of Bob Brinker's  Moneytalk from last Sunday...............................................................................(comments)

FrankJ wrote:

Bob’s guest on Sunday, Oct. 31 was John Hofmeister, author of a book called “Why We Hate the Oil Companies.”   John is the former president of Shell Oil Co. and is the founder of a non-profit, non-partisan organization, Citizens for Affordable Energy, a group devoted to holding politicians accountable for energy policy.
Hofmeister’s opening statement, in response to BB’s question as to why he wrote the book was that, while it is the oil companies that consumers hold responsible for high prices, they should “look through” the oil companies to see the federal government standing behind them, preventing increases in the domestic oil supply.
BB asked why we seem to have made a conscious decision over the past decades to buy oil from people like Hugo Chavez and the Saudi royal family.
JH answered that in the 1960s and 1970s, few barriers to domestic production existed, but after the Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969, and the Exxon Valdez spill,  a shift in politics caused us to “export the environmental risk.”  Congress reacted to Santa Barbara by putting a moratorium on off shore drilling.   The result of this policy was we exported dollars and did not create domestic energy jobs.
BB asked John if the Gulf of Mexico spill gave energy and motivation to the anti-drilling groups? 
JH said, the Gulf spill added to their motivation, and pointed out that the Santa Barbara and Exxon Valdez names never went away among arguments against domestic production.  JH pointed out that the political response to the Gulf event was to shut down drilling, and while this change took place immediately, only one-third of rigs are back in production, due to the difficulty in getting permits.  JH said we pay more than ever before for gas thanks to government’s unwillingness to produce domestic resources.
BB made the statement familiar to regular listeners that we would be much better off in terms of balance of payments and a strong dollar if we did not have to buy foreign oil.  JH agreed and said that dependence on foreign oil “saps the strength” of the domestic oil industry.
JH went on to blame oil companies for not doing a better job of telling their story to the American people and suggested that fear of retaliation from the federal gov’t might be the reason – it is the gov’t that grants exploration and drilling permits. 
BB then brought up the topic of natural gas and asked another question familiar to listeners as to why there has been no action on the part of the government to issue an executive order to convert the federal vehicle fleet to natural gas?  
JH said politicians are “actors” who act on a 2 year cycle, and used the term “political time” and said that elected officials can’t look beyond Nov 2012, whereas, the benefit of natural gas use in vehicles might take 5-10 years before there is a material impact on the economy.  He mentioned his non-profit group and said the American people need reminding that they are being victimized. 
After the break, BB brought up Wind and Solar, asking the guest, “Why do they get all the face time in Washington, D.C?”
JH answered that it is a matter or political popularity.  Politicians will support whatever brings in better polling numbers, and they like to get political contributions from groups and individuals who support wind and solar.    
Wind and solar are not, in fact, about green jobs because they are largely self-operating.  He said wind towers will not last as long as predicted because they are out in the weather.  He said we need to stop throwing money at projects that require tax subsidies in order to produce electricity at prices consumers will pay. 
Editorial Comment:  Consumers often don’t have a choice because some states have passed legislation REQUIRING electric utilities to purchase a percentage of their power from renewable sources. 
BB asked John if he has seen the large wind farm along Interstate 40, near Weatherford, OK and is this business model economically viable?
JH said he had not, but he has seen wind farms out west.   JH does not think it is economically viable.  Instead of “dozens and dozens” of towers, there need to be “hundreds and hundreds” of towers.   He said, the amount of energy produced by existing wind farms is, “paltry.”  The scale needed would require “billions” in investment and people would not go for that.
JH cited the negatives:
·       Projects require incentives in the form of tax write-offs. 
·       Utilities are required to buy the more expensive electricity and they simply pass the higher costs on to consumers. 
·       Getting the electricity from remote areas to where it is used, is inefficient:  transmission lines lose 3% of the energy per mile.
·       Ratepayers pay for the new transmission lines.
·       Ratepayers pay for backup energy sources needed (often natural gas plants).
 JH said we are “…paying through the nose for a very small benefit so politicians can say – look what we are doing for green energy.”
A caller criticized Americans for buying gas guzzlers.  Before the caller could launch into a full-blown filibuster, BB cut him off and asked JH about the smaller cars in Europe.
JH answered that European cities built in the 15th-16th century have narrow streets and cannot accommodate large vehicles like SUVs.   Editorial Comment:  OK, that was weak.  He went on with a little better explanation:
Parking is expensive because land is limited.  Getting better.
Europeans have had to make do with less because Europe does not have the natural resources the United States does.    Getting better.
We (in the US) are used to having choices.   That’s the ticket.
EC:   High taxes on fuel mean people want cars that get high mileage and that means small cars, a pretty obvious reason for the prevalence of small cars in Europe.
BB asked John’s views on conservation. 
JH said 30 years ago we put the burden of conservation on the consumer.  We were told we needed to be colder in the winter and hotter in the summer to save energy.  Instead, we need to design conservation into the products we use and suggested that it is time (over the next 30 years) to say good bye to the inefficient internal combustion engine and replace it with batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and mass transit. 
A caller asked about over-the-road trucks being converted to natural gas as an alternative fuel.  JH seemed to agree with this concept and went into a discussion of Methanol for use in engines.  Methanol can be produced from natural gas, or other sources in bio-refineries, but this will take a political framework.  Advantages would be domestic drilling jobs and jobs in bio-refineries.
In closing, BB asked if John would end the government subsidies for ethanol?
JH said we need a larger plan for the use of ethanol, methanol, butanol, and compressed natural gas.  We need an open fuel standard predicated on domestic energy production and suggested that natural gas could be used to produce methanol without subsidies, making it competitive with ethanol."
 Honey here: Thanks again, FrankJ. That was a great summary of an interesting subject! 
The Hofmeister interview is available at KGO810 radio until Sunday. It is archived in the 3-4pm hour and can be downloaded for free. 

9 comments:

john said...

Hi All;
Good interview it opened my eyes as to what is going on. I knew about the political aspects but did not realize how the government punishes the oil companies(no new drill permits) if they don't go along with them. The politicians drive the government according to the amount of monies they can extract from various groups.(green jobs??)(very interesting) I guess Bob isn't to far astray when he says we have the best government money can buy.

john said...

Hi anyone out there. I guess I will answer my own question yeah kind of a screwed up system we have out there between the govt and politics. I agree with you John

Honeybee said...

John,

Sorry, I've been pretty busy today. I certainly agree with your assessment, and I'm glad you enjoyed FrankJ's summary of the interview.

I am totally convinced that the government knuckles under to the radical environmentalists to the detriment of the US -- no drilling, no nuclear, etc. We all pay the price in higher gasoline and utility bills.

And now, we have a president who leads the pack.

Anonymous said...

John,

I am glad you liked the summary. Hofmeister was a different type of guest. BB often gets authors, but in most cases they are academics, reporters, or analyst types. That's OK, but it is refreshing to hear from someone who has been in the trenches of the oil industry.

It is too bad they didn't have more time to spend on the ethanol industry and its subsidies. A whole program could be devoted to this boondoggle, which has enriched a small number of people in the mid-West mostly, at the expense of every taxpayer.

It is the by now, tried and true scheme: pass a law requiring the use of a product and then subsidize the production thereof.

There was an article by Dave Juday (going from memory on the name) in the Weekly Standard a few weeks ago, that pointed out the convoluted nature of this ethanol program and the negative effect it has had on food prices and other things. You can find the article on-line. Prepare to be infuriated when you read it.

40% percent of the acreage devoted to growing corn is destined for ethanol.

I am solidly in BB's camp on the notion that we get the best gov't money can buy. There are some websites out there that track the sources of campaign contributions. opensecrets.org is one.

-- Frankj

john said...

Thanks Honeybee and Anonymous I will look into the references.Again as you pointed out you do get angry when you realize what is going on at everyone else's expense. I always thought we needed policies such as an Energy policy to combat these abuses but as the author mentioned the politicians are not interested in any thing that is long term as they would not be affected. Interesting stuff.. I hope he has more people on that worked in the various industries Thanks again

Kirk Lindstrom said...

Great summary Frank. I like the comment about how we don't have NG because politicians only look ahead 2 years. I think another issue is the ones in power today believe burning any carbon based fuel will make the temperatures seen during the days of the dinosaurs come quicker. IT seems we have all sorts of subsidies to try and slow this down where it might be better to spend the money preparing for the inevitable... building better dykes and levies, moving population centers higher above sea level, etc... but if you look at Europe, much of is is very close to sea level so we're sort of forced to go along for international political harmony even if there 0appears to be a bit of junk science to help it.

Also, the VCs here in Silicon Valley probably haven't figured out how to make a lot of money with government programs from converting to a NG economy but they sure knew how to do it with solar... 'nuf said.

thanks again for the report.

Honeybee said...

Kirk said: "....but they sure knew how to do it with solar... 'nuf said."

You are no doubt referring to Solyndra. That was only a half billion dollars down the drain -- I should say added to the almost $15 trillion national debt. Whatcha complaining about? LOL!

They had an auction last week, but evidently had plenty of money to give executives bonuses. I sure wish Google would let us post pictures in the comments section. One is worth a thousand words:

Solyndra executives were awarded quarterly bonuses worth up to $60,000 apiece earlier this year as the California solar-panel company headed for bankruptcy, court documents show.

Documents filed by the company in U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware show the well-paid executives at the firm were given bonuses in April and in July, just months before the company filed for bankruptcy in September and laid off 1,100 workers.

The details add to the narrative of what was happening behind the scenes in the year leading up to the company's financial collapse, though congressional Republicans investigating the matter are looking for more details. After the Obama administration turned over 20,000 pages of documents earlier this week pertaining to Solyndra, House Republicans on Thursday night served the White House and vice president's office with a subpoena for more Solyndra documents.


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Anonymous said...

Kirk:

Thank you. Your comments reminded me of the Danish scientist, Bjorn Lomborg, author of "Cool It" and "The Skeptical Environmentalist." His message is, similar to yours, we are probably better off spending money to adjust and adapt to climate changes, than we are spending huge sums of money in an attempt to halt or reverse the trend.

Personally, I think schemes like cap and trade would have further hamstrung our economy, especially if the nations doing the most CO2 generation did nothing. (I cannot picture China getting on board.)

The notion of the federal gov't doling out carbon credits is abhorrent to me. There might have been a brisk market in buying/selling/exchanging such credits, but in the end, I think the cost of all this would have been passed on to consumers.

Look for BB to take a breather tomorrow, I think we're in for a session with Lynn.

-- Frankj

Honeybee said...

Speaking of oil. What railroads are involved in Bakken:

Rail Picks With Bakken Upside
Credit Suisse likes Kansas City Southern, Canadian Pacific and Union Pacific.

Given the recent media attention that the railroads have garnered in terms of their role in transporting crude from the Bakken to refineries in various parts of the U.S., we thought it would be helpful to lay out for investors which of the major rails are involved.

For reference, one carload (standard tank car) can hold 650 barrels of crude. Unit trains typically consist of 100-115 cars per train. Thus, a 100-car unit train would be the equivalent of 65,000 barrels of crude.

[ Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRKb) unit] BNSF Railway operates approximately 1,000 miles of track in the Bakken region [Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada] and serves 16 of the top 19 oil-producing counties in North Dakota and Wyoming. The company is moving several trains per week of crude out of the Bakken, and will ultimately have the capacity to ship 730,000 barrels per day (or roughly nine-10 unit trains per day).

Canadian Pacific Railway (ticker: CP) is currently moving 8,000 carloads of crude annually out of the Bakken—compared with 500 per year in 2010. Within a couple of years, the company expects to haul upwards of 30,000-35,000 carloads per year. Canadian Pacific is investing $100 million to expand its operations in North Dakota.

Union Pacific (UNP) moved 4,400 carloads of crude from the Bakken in 2010 to two terminals it serves in St. James, La. In 2011, it expects to move roughly 16,000 carloads (or nearly 10 million barrels of crude) via interchange with BNSF or Canadian Pacific (Union Pacific does not directly serve the Bakken). Union Pacific believes the long-term growth opportunity is significant, but has not provided quantitative guidance beyond 2011.

Kansas City Southern (KSU) does not currently move any crude, but expects to commence shipments sometime in 2012 via its joint venture with [closely-held] Savage Industries—which will build, own and operate the Port Arthur Crude Terminal on Kansas City Southern property in Texas. The company has not provided specific guidance, but we estimate that it will initially haul two-to-three trains per week—ultimately reaching 10 trains per week.

Canadian National Railway (CNI) does not directly serve the Bakken, but is engaging in discussions with oil companies, and has begun some test shipments via interchanges with other railroads and trucks.

The Eastern Class 1 railroads are not participating in this market currently, but Norfolk Southern (NSC) recently stated that it is beginning to see plans being made to transport unit trains of crude to refineries it serves in the East.

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