After pointing out that the stock market has been volatile, Lynn said: "Just a few months ago, you and I were talking about getting ready to take the plunge again. Instead, the market took the plunge."
Later in the program, Lynn said: "The third quarter ended a week ago Friday, I'm sure Bob commented on this last week. Good riddance to that. It was down 12%.....That was the worst performance since '09. Then Monday, it lost more ground. The S&P dipped below 1100.....Stocks still down for the year. The S&P 500 down 9%."
Several times today, Lynn showed that she not only doesn't listen to Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, but that she doesn't read Marketimer. It has been several weeks since Bob even mentioned the stock market, and months since he expressed any opinions. And Lynn clearly does not know that Bob declared the stock market "attractive for purchase" at the S&P 500 level of 1129 on September 22nd.
Lynn went over some of the latest economic reports and said: "In the past several weeks, twenty of twenty-five economic indicators have come in stronger than expected. So reports of the economy's demise have been exaggerated, as Mark Twain once said about his own death."
She might have been referring to the ECRI prediction that the economy is going into recession. Bob agrees with Lynn on that. He has not forecast a recession.
Lynn's two major topics of the day were: CEOs getting millions of dollars when they are "shown the door," and the new $5 charge for Bank of America Debit Cards. I'm not going to cover those topics. If you are interested in them, you can download the program from KGO810 radio in the program archives -- it's free!
Lynn's guest-speaker today was Gina Martin Adams, Senior Institutional Equity Strategist for Wells Fargo.
Gina said: "I see the market as kind of in the midst of a secular bear trend. And if you look at former secular bear markets, you tend to have very large swings in prices, both to the up side and to the down side."
Lynn replied: "For the novices among us and there aren't an awful lot who listen to Bob Brinker who don't know what a secular bear is, but for those who don't, please explain that to us so we can pinpoint what you're doing."
Gina said: "It's a long-term trend in which the market valuation falls....."
Honey EC: It's questionable whether Gina knows anything about cyclical bull market trends. She sure never mentioned them today. Brinker claims that the current market is in a cyclical bull within a secular bear.
And as I said before, Lynn obviously does not listen to Brinker. He has not discussed secular trends for years. The last time he talked to a caller about secular bear markets was in 2007 just before he retroactively declared that the secular bear that started in 2000 had ended in 2006.
At that time, the market was going up so fast that it was beginning to look like his "cyclical bull market" was going to be taken out by a roaring bull market reaching well above previous all-time-highs and breaking all the rules that he had laid out in Marketimer and on Moneytalk about cyclical/secular trends. That would have made him look rather foolish.
Of course, it was about that time that the mega-bear market started and continued until it bottomed in March 2009. At that time, he declared the "secular bear megatrend" on again:
May, 2009 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Although it appeared to us that the secular bear megatrend that began in year-2000 had reached its conclusion, there is no question that the secular bear megatrend remains intact...."Three times today, Lynn advised a caller to consult a "certified financial planner." That is diametretically opposed to what Brinker recommends. He always recommends learning to be your own financial manager.
Matter of fact, I do not believe that Brinker is a "certified financial planner." Here is what Bobbrinker.com says about him: "Bob Brinker has more than twenty five years of investment management experience. He is the host of the weekend financial talk program MoneyTalk."
Experience does not equal "certified financial planner." If it does, I will soon qualify. :)
Bob Brinker's S&P target range in 2007:
November 2007, Marketimer, Page 2; Paragraph 7; Brinker wrote: ".......the S&P 500 Index should rise at the least into the mid-1600's range next year, in our view."Bob Brinker's S&P target range in 2011:
March 2011, Marketimer, Page3; Paragraph 5; Brinker wrote: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to reach the low-to-mid 1400's range within the next year." (That would have been March 2012, but now he is saying 2012, which would be up to December.)Lynn's best quote of the day: "Steve (from Vacaville) Stop Me From Babbling!"
74 comments:
This is a bit off topic, but I was wondering if anyone knows what 'justaworkinstiff' is up to these days. Justaworkinstiff used to be a major poster on the semi equip. boards.
As far as Brinker goes, there is nothing more disingenuous than purposely not talking about the stock market when it's in a downtrend.
I'm surprised that KGO isn't all over Brinker for being so shady.
Thank you for the service of letting folk know if Brinker was on the show. I come here rather than waste time downloading from KGO.
Bob should have been on today. He could have crowed about calling the bottom, since it looks like he very well may have. Futures are up big time tonight, and if that carries through tomorrow, it could be the "follow-through" day IBD says is necessary to change the trend back to rally mode.
I'm surprised by the strength, but one thing I've learned is never fight the "tape".
So if tomorrow does turn out to be a follow-through day, I'll be forced to become a bull again in spite of the long term MACD that has turned negavive. No indicator is perfect...none!
Lynn had it pretty easy this time. No combative callers. Not only was Bob off this weekend but so was Andy from Redwood city. Too bad, he would have fit right in with bashing CEO compensation. There was one caller who was coughing so bad Lynn didn't put her on the air right away. She did stop another caller who had a bad cell phone connection.
Is there a bear raid on Bank of America? Two callers said they took all of their money out of B of A. Last week senator Dick Durbin told people to get their money out of B of A in a speech on the senate floor. I guess the bank must have missed paying their protection money to the DNC.
The third hour guest didn't have a book to plug. I had never heard her before. Lynn probably knows her from her job as business reporter. I think Well Fargo is headquarter in her area. I wonder how Bob feels about someone other than him making market forecasts on Moneytalk.
"Bob should have been on today. He could have crowed about calling the bottom, since it looks like he very well may have."
I knew that Dan, but every time I mention that Brinker is a true professional versus the amateur talking heads I get blasted.
I have to answer personal questions, take insults and read an entire page of Brinker blasting posts.
That's OK. Brinker has once again proven himself to be an uncanny expert and as you say, the proof is right there in the market action today.
Bfan
Whimpy cries out for help:
I have to answer personal questions, take insults and read an entire page of Brinker blasting posts.
sniff sniff............ Life is soooo unfair.
Poooooor baaaybeeee
Regarding the question about "Justawerkinstiff":
All I know for certain is that he has not posted on the Brinker thread that he "moderated" on Silicon Investor since 2007.
One might safely assume that he is deceased. Perhaps DanG knows more.
About Bob Brinker's "shadiness" on KGO. I seriously doubt that they monitor what he says other than what is in his contract.
If you notice, when he talks of his newsletter in the body of the program, he never calls it by name. Rather, he calls it "the investment letter."
However, when he does ads during breaks, it's "Marketimer -- get your free copy of Marketimer, Marketimer, Marketimer. It's easy, just go to the website," and so forth... LOL!
A gentle reminder to valued posters:
Please sign up for an account or at least sign your posts with a handle of your choice.
DanG,
I think there will be plenty of time for Bob Brinker to "crow" about "calling the bottom." :)
I'm happy that he finally got one right.
Please let us know when you become a bull again.
"About Bob Brinker's "shadiness" on KGO. I seriously doubt that they monitor what he says other than what is in his contract."
And why should KGO monitor what Brinker says?
The Anon without any handle says it's "shady" for Brinker to not talk about the stock market.
He wants KGO to force Brinker to talk about the market I guess.
But anyway, Brinker really nailed that last call and today's action even brings the naysayers like Dan to grudgingly give him credit where it is sorely due.
GO BOB!
Bfan
Bfan,
Are you still singing that old song about Bob Brinker being a "professional" whereas others are not? LOL!
And are you still stinging from the wet-noodle beating you took when I forced you to admit that you are not a subscriber -- and never have been?
Additionally, you clearly stated that you make all of your own decisions and only occasionally pick and choose one of Brinker's recommendations. LOL!
I'm not laughing at you, I'm laughing with you. You are laughing, aren't you? :)
"I knew that Dan, but every time I mention that Brinker is a true professional versus the amateur talking heads I get blasted."
BFan, I didn't say he was a "true professional", I said he may have been right on this bottom call.
A true professional does not cover up failures, crow about successes, refuse to take calls on the market when he's been made to look like a fool, ridicule fellow analysts, try to trade in the same manner as he tries to invest, letting small losses turn into huge ones, etc., etc, etc.
Bob's success as a market timer has been spotty at best. 2000 was a good call, but his qqq advice soon afterwards was terrible.
His March 2003 call was excellent. But he totally missed the 2008 devastating bear market, which took back all those gains and then some.
His general investment advice is very good (diversification and asset allocation). Let's leave it at that.
Jeffchristie,
Great summary of Lynn's program yesterday.
I sure hope old Andy from Redwood City is okay. I was listening for his call. :)
It was clear to me from Lynn and Gina's discussion yesterday, that they both feel that the stock market is in a bear.
They made no distinction between secular and cyclical, like Brinker does.
In addition to a great analysis of Bob Brinker's timing record, DanG said: "His general investment advice is very good (diversification and asset allocation). Let's leave it at that."
Yes, I agree. His general advice is good. If he would drop that whole "market-timing" hocus-pocus, he'd be an outstanding financial advisor.
Some other good advice he gives:
* Learn to be your own financial manager.
* Buy no-load, low expense mutual funds.
* Watch out for sharks.
The only thing I remember about "justawerkinstiff" was that I thought that was one of Bob's aliases on his own, now defunct, website. If there was another one, I'm unaware of him.
If volume proves to be strong today, and if the price gains hold up, this could be the long-awaited "follow-through" day. If so, I will grudgingly put on my "bull cap" once more, in spite of the negative longer term MACD, which still bothers me and will prevent me from turning WILDLY bullish.
We are approaching the generally favorable seasonal period which starts in November. So maybe it started a bit early this year.
Sy Harding will turn bullish if the daily MACD is or turns positive on or after October 15. At least that's how I interpret his "Seasons in the Sun" approach.
Unfortunately, volume is puny due to the Columbus Day holiday. This will most likely prevent today's being labeled as a "follow-through" day. Too bad, but rules is rules!
"So if tomorrow does turn out to be a follow-through day, I'll be forced to become a bull again in spite of the long term MACD that has turned negative. No indicator is perfect...none!"
I'm glad you said that Dan. You don't blindly follow ALL indicators just as I don't take ALL market calls.
As you say "no indicator is perfect" just as all of Brinker's calls are not "perfect".
People jump on me and say that I am cherry picking but but as you point out that is simply not true. It's just choosing whatever indicator and/or advice you think is appropriate for the times.
Thank you Bob.
Bfan.
Dan_G, a true pro said: "A true professional does not cover up failures, crow about successes, refuse to take calls on the market when he's been made to look like a fool, ridicule fellow analysts, try to trade in the same manner as he tries to invest, letting small losses turn into huge ones, etc., etc, etc."
From "Marketimer Bulletin History":
Bob Brinker wrote "November 5, 2008: Regular Marketimer update with S&P500 at 1549.38. "The S&P500 index should rise at leasst into the mid-1600's range next year, in our view....... We continue to rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the area of the S&P500 Index mid-1400s, in the event such weakness occurs.... All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested..."
He's still fully invested and calling buy signals on every major dip.
I'm sorry. I made a typo... it was 2007 not 2008. The market went down over 50% to the 700s by Nov. 2008!
Try again.
From "Marketimer Bulletin History":
Bob Brinker wrote "November 5, 2007: Regular Marketimer update with S&P500 at 1549.38. "The S&P500 index should rise at leasst into the mid-1600's range next year, in our view....... We continue to rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the area of the S&P500 Index mid-1400s, in the event such weakness occurs.... All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested..."
ouch!!!
Does any credible financial media outlet still take Brinker seriously? I can't remember the last time I heard anyone The Journal, Barrons or CNBC even mention Brinker unless it is to plug Hulbert's products.
Bfan, if you can successfully "cherry pick" Bob's advice, separating the wheat from the garbage, go for it. I'm a big fan of doing what works for each individual. So good luck to you!
Still not much volume today, Columbus Day. Well, there are two more days left in the optimum window for a "follow-through" day. If not today, maybe tomorrow...or maybe Wednesday...or...maybe not.
"He's still fully invested and calling buy signals on every major dip."
Well there you are. He's bound to be close sooner or later. And you can pick the one you like.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Bfan
[Honey here: Personal attack edited).
Dan I agree with you that justaworkingstiff was a Brinker alias at first on his website. Later an ask Justa tread was added and the Justa and Lars honor Brinker thread was started at SI. I believe a man named Tom Sayers was Justa at both places. I heard a rumor that he had a falling out with Brinker but I have no details. Justa was the guy at SI who outed Don Lane/MrTopes as being Bob Brinker. No one has heard from him since August 2007. Here is a post from Boca Pete asking about him in 2009. There was no response on what happened to him.
Previous | Next
To: Investor2 who wrote (5053) 12/25/2009 7:51:48 PM
From: Boca_PETE of 6485
Have not heard from him either. He has been nonresponsive to public posts since his last one in August 2007.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23802912
His last post at iHub was November 2007:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=24407220
He has been nonresponsive to my occasional private messages.
P
Reading Honey's summary of fill-in Lynn reminded me of a subject to ask the board.
On Moneytalk Mr B speaks in first person singular:
"I think this minor pullback..."
"My forecast has been..."
In written form on his newsletter we find a different slant:
"In our view..."
"We expect..."
Is this practice a subtle attempt to deflect responsibility of his erroneous predictions? On air he has the power to screen callers and not talk about embarrassing market calls. In print they become failures by committee.
Oh what a tangled web we weave...
Marketimer Bulletin History wrote: "Does any credible financial media outlet still take Brinker seriously? I can't remember the last time I heard anyone The Journal, Barrons or CNBC even mention Brinker unless it is to plug Hulbert's products."
Based on the fact that it's been a very long time since even Mark Hulbert mentioned Bob Brinker's Marketimer in his Marketwatch or Barron's columns, I'd say that the answer in no.
"NOONE" in the professional financial media takes Brinker seriously. He's become a joke among those who are educated enough to see through his "market-timing" while remaining-fully-invested schtick.
Thanks for that info, Jeffchristie.
You are correct that Justa was the person who originally "outed" Bob Brinker as posting with the alias, "donlane" (which was later changed to, "mistertopes").
I have archived all of the evidence that Justa laid out in detail. There was also other proof that ended up safely in the hands of David Korn.
Not that proof is needed beyond the simple reading of "mistertopes" writings on Silicon Investor that took place over 2+ years.
He didn't try very hard to hide his identity. He and Jr. had a lot of fun with it.
"Is this practice a subtle attempt to deflect responsibility of his erroneous predictions? On air he has the power to screen callers and not talk about embarrassing market calls. In print they become failures by committee....Oh what a tangled web we weave..."
How silly. Haven't you ever heard of the editorial "we".
Brinker's use of the word "we" in his written work is not only proper but required by English diction.
Is there something else we can find to bash Brinker about this week?
You guys just can't stand it when he hits one out of the park like he did on that last call.
Bfan
You are correct that Justa was the person who originally "outed" Bob Brinker
LOL...okay I don't even need to touch that one. We already established Bob likes to call out both bottoms and tops.
tfb
So little Brinker historian Ms. Hottie HoneyBee (hmmmm...mature women are so totally hot - XXXX are all the rage these days)...
I give Brinker a 65% accurate for his 2000 kind if sort of maybe get out of the market call and a 1005 accurate for his subsequent reentry call...for an average accuracy of 82.5% for those two data points. I can think of 4 other entries that did not work out so he would drop to an accuracy rating of 27.5% right there.
The question is how many bad buy calls did he make up until now(the verdict is still out - I tend to think Oct if gonna be a bad one)as we know he has not made a sell signal for 11 years?
You know, since he is such a professional maybe we need the states to see how he stacks up to say a chimp finger painting or moss on the north side of the tree.
tfb
Sorry, my friend, I Googled your acronym and had to edit it. My kids can Google too -- or who knows? They may already know what it means. :)
Is there something else we can find to bash Brinker about this week?
Why, ain't his TOTAL dismal record enough to bash? (note the word "total")
RE: "You guys just can't stand it when he hits one out of the park like he did on that last call."
What call was that? The last time I remember him talking about a call on the radio (July 31, 2011 Moneytalk Summary) he was bragging about buying around 1292.
Bob said he was taking advantage of dollar cost averaging weakness and in fact bought some more into the market on Friday July 29, 2011.
Brinker: "Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level."
CNBC shows the S&P500 is up some 34 points today and is still in the 1100s. Last week it went into the 1000s.
Are you talking about a different S&P500 or are you using some of that Kaliforny Medical Marijuana?
Bfan said:
You guys just can't stand it when he hits one out of the park like he did on that last call.
Bfan,
You must tell us why suscribers had no "dry powder" to take advantage of that.
Please tell us why Brinker was buying in the 1200's if he thought the market could go lower.
Tell us why Brinker cannot ever identify tops. Remember even in Jan. 2000 when Brinker tried to call his one top it did not top out until August of 2000 I believe.
If Brinker can time the market tell us why we don't see his name on the Forbes 400 list.
Tell us why we do not see him interviewed on CNBC. Anyone who could time the market would be bombarded with such requests.
Tell us why John Bogle still says nobody can time the market even though Mr. Bogle knows Bob Brinker.
Finally tell us why Marketimer is not the most read publication on Wall Street.
Here is one of the most informative columns I have ever read about NLY:
Is Annaly Capital the Right Stock to Retire With
More on the "slowdown," or as Achuthan has predicted, "recession."
October 11, 2011
The Labor Department announced last week that the U.S. economy grew by just 103,000 jobs in September. A number like that isn't even enough to keep up with population growth. The fact that the report was widely greeted as positive news suggests just how low expectations have sunk this year.
Since January, the U.S. economy has been hit by a series of external shocks that brought a modest recovery nearly to a halt. The slowdown, however, may have been under way even before the shocks took place.
As recently as last January, President Obama could still sound a note of cautious optimism about growth: "The economy added 1.3 million jobs last year, and each quarter was stronger than the previous quarter, which means the pace of hiring is beginning to pick up."
Fast forward to last week, when the president seemed much gloomier about the economy's prospects: "With respect to the state of the economy, there is no doubt that growth has slowed. I think people were much more optimistic at the beginning of the year."
This deceleration in growth has been as sudden as it was unexpected. During the second half of last year, growth was nearly 3 percent. By the first half of this year, it had fallen to almost 1 percent. An economic recovery seems to have come and gone before most Americans even realized it was here.
"We've had a new slowdown that began roughly in the second quarter of 2011," says Lakshman Achuthan, who heads the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "This time that downturn in growth has continued all the way to the onset of a new recession."
Economists generally point to several events to explain why growth has slowed.
The Japanese earthquake in March left that country's manufacturing base in tatters. American and European factories shut down when they couldn't get the parts they needed from Japan.
"People sometimes forget that Japan is still the rest of the world's second largest economy, and so a tragedy and disaster that shuts down almost all of Japanese manufacturing for a long period of time has an enormous impact worldwide," says former Federal Reserve board member Randall Kroszner.
Then came the Arab Spring with its inspiring images of protesters seizing the reins of power from autocratic rulers.
"The movement was a victory for democracy," Kroszner says, "but it generated a great deal of uncertainty about oil production, and so oil prices went up much more significantly than anyone had expected."
More recently, Kroszner says, the debt crisis in Europe has left a lot of investors worried about the exposure of U.S. financial institutions, and stock prices have tumbled.
But Achuthan, for one, is skeptical about how much of a role these events played in the slowdown. He says until late last year the leading indicators for growth were all pointing higher.
"Then the economy began to slow again, and this is something we saw coming," Achuthan says. "It was happening in the context of a global industrial slowdown, where industrial activity worldwide was decelerating."
Read more:
Recession Nips at the Heels of a Slow-Poke Recovery: NPR
HB said: "Here is one of the most informative columns I have ever read about NLY"
The volatility of NLY is mind boggling for a retired guy like me, but the 15% yield is also pretty boggling!
While I'd never rely on just one stock for my retirement portfolio, it does rate inclusion in a diversified portfolio of dividend payers, IMHO. So I have added it to mine.
As for the general market, yesterday could have been a follow-through day except for the holiday volume which was much too light.
Now the market is running into heavey resistance and is quite overbought, so I'm going easy with any purchases.
However, with November 1 coming down the pike (the beginning of the 6-month statistically bullish period), alertness is in order. A follow-through day would do it for me, though I am still a bit cautious because of the October longl-term MACD sell signal.
Well, nothing is ever perfect, but this is starting to look fairly good, and I've been nibbling at MO, NLY, and other big payers. And a follow-through would cause me to put MMF $$ back into mutual fund OAKBX.
I'm trying to decide between MORT and NLY I kind of favor the ETF it looks like it owns the group and pays 15 percent interest. Maybe a little less risk. What do u think.
Investor,
I'm sure you have tongue firmly planted in cheek. If not, I have a question for you:
When did MORT start trading? Fifteen minutes ago? LOL!
I would not own NLY in my retirement portfolio. It is much too volatile and you could end up way underwater without enough time left to come back.
The Motley Fool goes through some exercise where they rate NLY on the same basis they would use to rate and industrial company and that doesn't make any sense at all.
NLY is based on carry trade, PERIOD. They borrow lots of money at low interest rates and they buy higher yielding mortgage securities. And they take a TON OF MONEY OUT as their own reward.
If interst rates change drastically through government action, a TWIST program or otherwise, NLY will react immediately.
Same holds true if the SEC changes the leverage requirements for REITS including mtge reits.
So the future of NLY is driven entirely on the interst rate scenario which can change dramatically overnight leaving you no time to get out or hedge.
Way too risky for old retired folks.
SSecurity
Jim,
I noticed, and I'm sure others noticed, that Bfan did not have a answer for a single one of your great questions.
Maybe someone else will, but I don't recommend holding your breath. :)
Honey said:
I noticed, and I'm sure others noticed, that Bfan did not have a answer for a single one of your great questions.
No,he has not. Perhaps it seemed I was a bit hard on Bfan but I wanted to show that Brinker is just someone who TRIES to
time the market. We all try that from time to time. Occasionally a person gets it right but that doesn't make them anything special.
Brinker's record was quite good in the 1990's. That was because we were in a secular bull market where his "buy the dips" strategy worked perfectly. We see now in a secular bear how frustrating that strategy can be.
It does take some courage for Brinker to make a prediction about the market knowing others may act on that prediction so perhaps he can be given credit for some courage. He could show greater courage by mentioning his bad calls also. Some may think Brinker knows something that the rest of Wall Street doesn't, but I am no longer in that camp.
Challenging Dollar-Cost Averaging and Other Bad Ideas
Article
Some here are Jim Rogers fans. Here is a column with a great rundown of Rogers' predictions:
By John Prestbo
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Jim Rogers, a former partner of George Soros in the hedge fund game, has been vociferously bullish on commodities for going on 15 years. Except for getting older, married and becoming a parent, he has not changed.
I ran into him in late September at a commodities conference in Frankfurt. He told the assembled burghers that in 10 years the conference would have to be held in a stadium rather than a hotel meeting room, because commodities by then would be a red hot asset class and investors would be flocking to it.
Here are some of Rogers's comments. Even after applying the true-believer discount, they offer a feast for thought: "
Read more: Why Rogers is Right About Commodities (Marketwatch)
Mr. Pig,
Very interesting article. They make the good case against dollar-cost-averaging, which we know is one of Brinker's most long-term (and consistent) advice:
Excerpts:
CONSOLING THOUGHTS One of the great comforts to average investors in a volatile market is dollar-cost averaging. This is a fancy way of saying you should invest your money over a period of time as opposed to investing it all at once, which is known as lump-sum investing.
Proponents of dollar-cost averaging offer two arguments. By putting money into, say, a stock over time, you will be buying shares at varying prices, which will benefit you in the end. This seems particularly appealing when stock prices are rising and falling so much.
The second advantage is psychological: If you put all your money into an investment and it is worth 10 percent less the next day, you’re going to feel horrible about it. Worse, you may also be less inclined to make further investments or pull your money out.
But new research from Gerstein Fisher, a money manager in New York, raises questions about that investing philosophy. It found that from January 1926 to December 2010, investing your money on one day yielded better results over a 20-year period than investing the same amount of money in equal chunks over 12 months.
In the 70 percent of the time that investing everything all at once did better, it did better by 94 percentage points. When dollar-cost averaging did better, it did so only by 77 percentage points. Over a 20-year period, lump-sum investing added about 2 percent to annual returns, the study found. This ratio continued to hold true over the past decade.
The conclusion is the faster you invest the money, the better you do,” said Gregg Fisher, president and chief investment officer of Gerstein Fisher."
Article
The volume seems good enough for a "follow-through" day. Now if the price rise would continue so that one or more major index rises by 1.75% or more, it'd be a "done deal".
It would come one day outside the optimum time window, but anything below 10 days is not bad. Over ten days produces less reliable results.
"The conclusion is the faster you invest the money, the better you do,” said Gregg Fisher, president and chief investment officer of Gerstein Fisher."
That's right, especially in a secular bear market. Toss it all in early and keep those losses as high as possible.
What kind of nonsenes is that?
Bearometer
Is Jim Rogers the guy that Da Brink used to call "Mr. Bow-Tie" back when Bobarino was feeling his oats in the early 2000s? I always figured he was no good because Brinker made fun of his name. I never looked into his record.
Couldn't today be a follow through day for Oct 6? If you project the current volume it is not going to make it, though.
Don't you think BFan is just yanking your chains? His irrational habit of ignoring the facts you put out says that to me.
RJ Knott D'brinque
I monitor futures-trader "Ground Zero." He posts his trades "in advance" and you can see when he is right or wrong. He is right more than he is wrong.
I don't trade futures, but still enjoy knowing what his "model" is telling him.
This morning he wrote:
From: GROUND ZERO™ of 25621
A CLOSE TODAY ABOVE 1200.50 WOULD CONFIRM ANOTHER MAJOR BUY SIGNAL...
GZ
Silicon Investor, Buy and Sell Signals and other Market Perspectives
Do I think Bfan is yanking our chain?
Yup, I do, and that's okay. A little levity is good for us. LOL!
So, Bearometer, you like to dollar-cost-average?
Okay. The purpose of it is to make it easier on those who can't stand to ride market volatility.
Honeybee... a little levity is fine buy the guy posts drivel or lies then doesn't answer our questions when we ask them.
I'd like to know what "market call" he is referring to.
Here is my last question he ignored:
RE: (Bfan wrote) "You guys just can't stand it when he hits one out of the park like he did on that last call."
What call was that? The last time I remember him talking about a call on the radio (July 31, 2011 Moneytalk Summary) he was bragging about buying around 1292.
Bob said he was taking advantage of dollar cost averaging weakness and in fact bought some more into the market on Friday July 29, 2011.
Brinker: "Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level."
CNBC shows the S&P500 is up some 34 points today and is still in the 1100s. Last week it went into the 1000s.
Are you talking about a different S&P500 or are you using some of that Kaliforny Medical Marijuana?
We probably missed a follow-through today because of the drop near the close of half the previous gain. The volume was good, but the price gain didn't quite have enough ooomph!
At least that's how I see it. We'll have to wait to see how IBD sees it later this afternoon.
But it was a big day, in any case, and it looks like the bulls may be in charge now, with today's breakout and the fact November is coming up fast.
The only "fly in the ointment" I can see is the monthly MACD. Could it be wrong this time? Time will tell.
Anonymoussaid...
Is Jim Rogers the guy that Da Brink used to call "Mr. Bow-Tie" back when Bobarino was feeling his oats in the early 2000s? I always figured he was no good because Brinker made fun of his name. I never looked into his record.
I look into the record of anyone who talks about the Market. Jon Trian has written two books, money masters of our time and the new money masters. There is a chapter about Rogers in each book. I have been looking for years for something like this that addresses Bob Brinker's record as a money manager but I have had no luck in finding it. Perhaps Bfan could guide us to one.
Bozo Bob,
You make an excellent point. I have given Bfan every opportunity to answer your excellent questions about something he posted, as well as Jim's outstanding questions, SO:
Attn: Bfan....please answer the questions that Bozo and Jim asked about stuff you have posted...or else. :)
And changing names will not help you this time.
Anonymoussaid...
Is Jim Rogers the guy that Da Brink used to call "Mr. Bow-Tie" back when Bobarino was feeling his oats in the early 2000s? I always figured he was no good because Brinker made fun of his name. I never looked into his record.
I look into the record of anyone who talks about the Market. Jon Train has written two books, money masters of our time and the new money masters. There is a chapter about Rogers in each book. I have been looking for years for something like this that addresses Bob Brinker's record as a fund manager but I have had no luck in finding it. Perhaps Bfan could guide us to one.
"Attn: Bfan....please answer the questions that Bozo and Jim asked about stuff you have posted...or else. :)"
They can't really be serious can they? Asking me a question like why isn't Brinker on the Forbes 400 list, why we don't see him on TV, why doesn't Bogle say this etc etc.
How silly.
And Bozo Bob just like to post over and over again to get his link up for a competitors newsrag..and to post not so funny pictures of Brinker.
Again a joke.
I will be more than happy to answer any SERIOUS questions but it the meantime tell Bozo and Jim to not waste my time.
Bfan
Bfan probably FIBBING, says:
I will be more than happy to answer any SERIOUS questions but it the meantime tell Bozo and Jim to not waste my time.
How has a subscriber of Bob Brinker done financially if he followed ALL of the given advice, and not just the cherry picked years you always cite.
TIA, and have a great day tomorrow.
IBD has reluctantly labeled today as a "follow through" day and has rated the market as a "Confirmed Uptrend"!
So here we go on a bull market...maybe. I anticipated, a bit early, that it was about to be a follow-throuh day and moved MMF to stock funds at the close. So I'm now a "BULL" even though the market is extremely overbought. It does not pay to "fight the tape".
Bfan said: "I will be more than happy to answer any SERIOUS questions but it the meantime tell Bozo and Jim to not waste my time."
I'm sure you mean that in the friendliest, most humorous way, but nobody is wasting anybody's time here.
Well on second thought, maybe you waste some of my time. LOL!
Bfan wrote:They can't really be serious can they? Asking me a question like why isn't Brinker on the Forbes 400 list, why we don't see him on TV, why doesn't Bogle say this etc etc.
How silly.
Sure, I'm serious. If Brinker could time the market I think he could easily have 1M subscribers. That's 185M per year. In 10 years that would make him a billionare. He could do interviews and hold seminars which would make him additional money. Also he would be investing that money along the way to make still more. He could easily make the list I mentioned.
As for John Bogle, he is the man I respect the most in the investment world. He is the real true professional.
"How has a subscriber of Bob Brinker done financially if he followed ALL of the given advice, and not just the cherry picked years you always cite."
I don't know of any such person and neither do you or anybody else.
See what I mean by useless silly questions? Take a look at Jim's post just below where he is just acting silly once again. He's on my ignore list.
Bfan
Jim said:
"Sure, I'm serious. If Brinker could time the market I think he could easily have 1M subscribers. That's 185M per year. In 10 years that would make him a billionaire. He could do interviews and hold seminars which would make him additional money. Also he would be investing that money along the way to make still more. He could easily make the list I mentioned."
Actually if he could time the market he wouldn't need to sell newsletters. He could become one of the worlds most successful hedge fund managers like George Soros.
George Soros, the founder of the Quantum Fund, is one of the most successful hedge fund investors ever. A $100,000 investment in his fund when he started in 1969 would've been worth $150mm by 1994.
I don't know of any such person and neither do you or anybody else.
Then what good is he or his advice?
Tell me again how you make LOTSA LOTSA money following Bob's good advice, and SIDESTEP those dopey calls that he buries.
I forgotted, and you're so smart, I'm sure you remember.
"Actually if he could time the market he wouldn't need to sell newsletters. He could become one of the worlds most successful hedge fund managers like George Soros."
Well you're getting close jeff, and much better than Jim's idea.
Why would Brinker even need to be a hedge fund manager like Soros or anybody else?
He could just sit in his bedroom and enter these multi-zillion dollar orders on his HP laptop from the foot of his bed. All in penny stocks.
A lot of top notch financial gurus work that way I betcha.
Bfan
I am glad bfan likes the image he gets from clicking my name but he has yet to answer my question.
The first few posts a new reader here would see of the 63 comments include him saying "Brinker really nailed that last call."
Every time I've asked what call was that he's ignored or evaded the question. I posted a link to a quote from Brinker bragging about buying around 1290 and saying anyone who sold out at 1270 would be looking to get back in at a higher level...
This was the last time I remember Brinker talking about the stock market on his show (the subject here...) so what new call could he have made?
What "last call" was bfan referring to?
How would anyone following Brinker's advice on the radio or his newsletter benefit given he's said to be fully invested since March 2003?
Is Honeybee being played by someone who benefits from false information about Brinker showing up in the first few posts here?
Bfan wrote:
Why would Brinker even need to be a hedge fund manager like Soros or anybody else?
He could just sit in his bedroom and enter these multi-zillion dollar orders on his HP laptop from the foot of his bed. All in penny stocks.
A lot of top notch financial gurus work that way I betcha.
It sounds like you are now implying that Brinker is NOT a top notch financial guru. Anyway since Brinker is not selling 1M newsletters, is not a Hedge Fund manager, and is not trading penny stocks I think it only proves one thing doesn't it?
Here is a good performance breakdown for the top mortgage REITS, including NLY.
I'm still looking for a new NLY entry price and waiting for the dividend payout at the end of the month.
Excerpts:
"Recent weakness within mREITs has been fortified by fear over regulatory changes and rising fears over potential risks associated with interest rates eventually rising. These risks have brought down even the agency-only mREITs, which are normally bonk-like in their market activity. Over the last month, the share values for all of these mREITs are negative, though a recent upward trend is apparent within the industry and the broader market."
Recent Performance And Yield Review For 7 mREITS Yielding At Least 15%
"I posted a link to a quote from Brinker bragging about buying around 1290 and saying anyone who sold out at 1270 would be looking to get back in at a higher level..."
Hey Bozo,xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The call I'm referring to is his latest bulletin. But then you knew that.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Bfan
[Honey here: I had to censor this Bfan. You know why....naughty, naughty.] :)
"[Honey here: I had to censor this Bfan. You know why....naughty, naughty.]"
No problem HB, just send the post on to you-know-who. You have his email address or you can find it most anywhere on the web.
Just click on almost anything and it goes to his sites. LOL
Bfan
I looked for my Dan G. update for this afternoon, but find one I do not - sigh....
tfn - sniffle-sniffle
Bfan,
You must have mistaken me for your wife. I don't dance to any man's tune anymore.
The only man whose tune I willingly danced to is deceased.
This is an astonishing video.
"An amazing look at how a man obtains honey for his family in the jungle. After watching Tete climb up a 40 metre tree with a vine in place of a rope, then balance on a precarious branch while being stung by an angry swarm of bees I don’t think I’ll ever quite look at a bottle of honey the same way. If this doesn’t make you appreciate a grocery store nothing will."
Jungle Honey
Bfan,
You must have mistaken me for your wife. I don't dance to any man's tune anymore.
The only man whose tune I willingly danced to is deceased.
Stated differently:
"The HoneyBee Badger" doesn't give a ****
tfb
"I looked for my Dan G. update for this afternoon, but find one I do not - sigh...."
Sorry about that, but I was at the dermatologist's office getting my pre-cancerous sun damaged spots burned off with liquid nitrogen. Much fun! If it wasn't for the exceptionally hot receptionist, I'd avoid that fun all together!
And now for the market. It's still overbought but has started to turn down. Too early, in my opinion, to start buying more even though IBD called yesterday a "follow-through" day.
(I think he was stretching it a bit anyway since the magnitude of the gain at the close yesterday did not reach the "required" 1.75% in any of the major averages.)
Once again the only fly in the ointment I can see now is the recent sell signal on the long term MACD (monthly). That's a pretty big fly in my opinion, but not enough to keep me from buying some high paying dividend stocks when the prices are right.
Ok, there's my afternoon comment, for what it's worth! Since I'm not in the mood for buying anything today, I'm off to the fitness center for some "eye exercises"...if there are any 10's there!
- Dirty Old Man Dan G
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