Wednesday, October 5, 2011

October 5, 2011: Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz Guest Writer

October 5, 2011........................................................................................(comments)

This great review and commentary was written by a guest-author who posts here with the pen-name,  FrankJ:

"The mortgage meltdown and resulting financial crisis, spawned a large number of books on the subject.  Some analyzed the causes and some looked at  how the fix was put in place:  who won and who lost.  Bob Brinker has hosted a number of these authors on his show.   To me, with a few exceptions, this parade of authors grew tedious and I wondered just how long Bob would keep returning to this subject area for the show’s third hour.     

I recently finished reading Reckless Endangerment by Gretchen Morgenson and Josh Rosner, published in 2011.  Morgenson was a third hour guest earlier this year.  The subtitle is an apt description of what the book is about:  How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon – this book is solidly in the group dealing with the causes.  And to borrow a phrase from Bob Brinker, the book and the co- authors, belong “at the head of the class.

To put this book in perspective, it could be contrasted to Andrew Ross Sorkin’s book, Too Big to Fail,   another book and author featured in Bob’s third hour.  On the strength of the book being made into a movie, Sorkin appeared twice as a guest.  It has been a while since I read that book, but I remember it as a moment-by-moment account of the efforts made to save some of the major Wall Street firms.  It addresses the causes, sure, but much of the content of this book deals with personalities, drama, deals, hubris, stupidity and suspense that unfolded in 2008. 

Reckless Endangerment is not the stuff of movies, but it is a detailed, thorough and well-researched analysis of the causes of the financial crisis of 2008.  Morgenson writes in the Introduction: 

This is not the first book to be written about the epic financial crisis of 2008 and neither will it be the last.  But Josh and I believe that Reckless Endangerment is different from the others in two important ways.  It identifies powerful people whose involvement in the debacle has not yet been chronicled and it connects key incidents that have seemed heretofore unrelated.   

The reader gets a preview for how the story will unfold, when the Cast of Characters is presented prior to the Introduction.   This cast grouped into these categories:

  • ·        Fannie Mae and Friends
  • ·        Doubters and Those Who Pushed Back
  • ·        Subprime Lenders and Their Enablers
  • ·        Feckless Regulators

I think most of those who have been paying attention these last several years are aware that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were a large part of the problem;  that Wall Street enabled the subprime boom even after there was evidence the bubble was about to burst;  and that regulators were outclassed, or worse, controlled by those they were supposed to regulate.   

I suggest that the stories of “Those Who Pushed Back” have been under reported and to their credit, the authors of this book devote space to them.   

One of these heroes is Marvin Phaup, who, in 1996, was a deputy assistant director of the Congressional Budget Office.  He set out to examine Fannie Mae’s claim that  they “…served the American public by passing along to borrowers all of the cost savings the company received from its government association.”    Mr. Phaup examined the amount of the subsidy they received as a government sponsored entity, and, how much of the savings they actually passed on to borrowers. 

 Phaup found that Fannie and Freddie’s  borrowing costs were lower because investors assumed they would be bailed out by the government.  For the year 1995, he estimated they benefited to the tune of $7 billion.   Did they pass on all of these savings?  No, they passed along  two-thirds, keeping one-third for themselves.   To Phaup and the CBO, this explained Fannie’s outsized executive salaries, aggressive lobbying efforts, charitable contributions, and penchant for keeping academics on retainer – ready to publish studies in support of its role in the mortgage markets. 

In May of 1996, when the report was finished, Fannie Mae demanded a meeting with the CBO.  Franklin Raines  and Robert Zoellick (top execs with Fannie Mae) did not refute the report’s findings but insisted that it not be published.  (If the name Zoellick sounds familiar, it is because he is now the head of the World Bank…these people just don’t go away).   

Marvin Phaup’s boss and head of the CBO, June O’Neill, is another hero.  In response to Fannie’s demands,  she told them it would be published as written.   One month later, O’Neill was in the crosshairs of the House Banking Subcommittee on Capital Markets, when she presented and defended the report.  She had to sit through questions and statements from members of the subcommittee, provided by Fannie Mae.  Congress did not act on CBO’s suggestion that they consider privatizing Fannie and Freddie.

On finishing the book, I was struck by how many people who were involved as schemers, enablers, or were just asleep at the switch, are still involved in politics and policy.  In the authors’ words, “…we are disturbed that so many who contributed to the mess are still in positions of power or have risen to higher ranks.  … A system where perpetrators of such a crime are allowed to slip quietly from the scene is just plain wrong.”     

This point is driven home in the last few pages, where the key players in the events leading up to the 2008 crisis are listed, along with what they are doing as of late 2010. " 

Honey here: Thank you very much FrankJ! 

My family member and her husband, who is an amputee, both completed the Canada IronMan last month.  Yesterday, they ran a half-marathon together. This is a great accomplishment in light of the long road Jeff took to recover and get to this point. Having someone like her has made the difference for him (I admit to some bias in thinking she is wonderful) :)



26 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'll just add the Chamber of Commerce and in particular the SBA should get special mention for a great deal of this mess. In essence it is simple, due to the guarantee attached to an SBA loan the loan originator had no reason to perform due diligence on the nature of the loan. This crippled another entire leg of the economic engine.

tfb

Anonymous said...

I don't know what the Chamber of Commerce has to do with anything but the whole SBA loan program should be dismantled.

SBA loans are by definition, loan of last resort to a bunch of lousy borrowers who can't borrow even a penny anywhere else.

The entire SBA loan portfolio is worthless and will be written off sooner or later. All at the taxpayer expense.

I used to process this garbage and without the government guarantee nobody would touch a penny of this worthless junk.

Loan officer.

Honeybee said...

I want to express my sadness at the passing of Steve Jobs. He helped change our world for the better in a huge way.

May he rest in peace....

Dan G said...

Yeah, me too, HB! Jobs was one in a million.

Not nearly so mourned is the disgruntled shooter in our area (Sunnyvale/Cupertino) who went on a killing spree yesterday, killing 3 and wounding 6 others.

He was shot and killed this morning by police. Sad to see anyone die like that, but better him than more innocent people.

Dan G said...

Reposting this from my other blog, Brinkerbots:

The market continues to rally. Could Brinker be right for a change? Anything is possible, but color me doubtful.

I'm taking a bit of a licking with my DXDs this morning, but will hold them unless the steep downward 50-day moving average is penetrated on the upside. If that happens, I will grudgingly capitulate.

Or if a "follow-through" day occurs withing that optimum 4-day window which starts tomorrow.

Honeybee said...

Thanks Dan!!!

I made a very profitable trade with NLY over the past few days. Now waiting for another buying-opportunity. :)

BTW: I didn't know there was still a Brinkerbot Club.

Are they truly Brinker fans? Do they allow anyone who writes a blog about Bob Brinker to join their club now, or am I still on their hate-list? :)

Dan G said...

Yes, there still is a "Brinkerbot" club. It's private, but since so few post there anymore, they are probably desperate for more active members.

Brinker is rarely mentioned there anymore. It's mostly political comments, though some are still interested in investing.

Trading NLY? Wow, that's a wild one! You are one brave lass, I'll give you that!

Anonymous said...

"The market continues to rally. Could Brinker be right for a change? Anything is possible, but color me doubtful"

Just like I said before. Brinker's calls reflect a true professional rather than those dime-store hucksters you hear on TV.

His recent bulletin couldn't have been more accurate. I think it's about time that many of the naysayers and bashers apologize to Brinker for the mean things they have said and written.

Bfan

Anonymous said...

I don't know what the Chamber of Commerce has to do with anything but the whole SBA loan program should be dismantled.

The Chamber has been an extra lobbying group for the IFA for years; hence the connection.

Pig said...

Bfan says

Just like I said before. Brinker's calls reflect a true professional............ rather than those dime-store hucksters you hear on TV.

You forgot a word between professional and rather. Was it "Huckster" or "con artist", or something more descriptive?

How come your site is so dead?

birdbrain said...

Bfan writes "Brinker's calls reflect a true professional."

A true professional:

Owns up to his calls, admitting the mistakes and the reasoning behind them.

Does not refuse to talk about the stock market on his show for months as the Great Recession drove his all-in S&P 1400 pick followers to a 40%+ decline, and those unfortunates remain 17% underwater after four years.

Does not issue multiple buy recommendations over the last few years while NEVER issuing a sell signal in order to raise cash to take advantage of said opportunities.

Does not remove from his website the one year performance of his portfolios as they underperformed the market, only to restore them when favorable.

Apologize? I will, Bfan.

I apologize I did not write all of this sooner.

Dan G said...

I will certainly give Brinker his due for this one call IF, and only if, we get a real "follow through" day within the next 4 trading days to "confirm" the rally.

Until then it's just a snap-back relly. in my opinion. And with low volume, indicating little institutional participation. Rallies don't go very far without the institutions leading the way.

Honeybee said...

Bfan,

One thing that I enjoy the most about this blog is the humor and your comments are truly funny!

You said: "Just like I said before. Brinker's calls reflect a true professional rather than those dime-store hucksters you hear on TV."

Are you referring to Jim Cramer? If so, there is one big difference between him and Bob Brinker. Jim admits his mistakes. Bob Brinker never does -- at least, not voluntarily.

You said: "His recent bulletin couldn't have been more accurate."

It might be a little early to count his chickens, but let's say the market bottomed. What possible difference does his all-in at S&P 1129 make to anyone who actually followed what he says in Marketimer and on Moneytalk?

Then you said the funniest line of all: "I think it's about time that many of the naysayers and bashers apologize to Brinker for the mean things they have said and written."

One thing I will never do is apologize for stating facts. I'm not mean. Like Harry Truman:

“I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell.” __Harry S Truman

Honeybee said...

Birdbrain....Perfectly stated!! :)

Anonymous said...

"His recent bulletin couldn't have been more accurate."

Honey Badger doesn't care...

tfb

Honeybee said...

Dear TFB,

Here's the link to the video that you previously posted about Honey Badger.

ROFLOL!!!

(Warning: This video has R-rated language.)

Honeybee said...

Dan said: "Trading NLY? Wow, that's a wild one! You are one brave lass, I'll give you that!"

Glad you added the "l" to lass.... :)

Yes, I agree. It takes nerve. Most of the time, I'd guess about 90% of the time, my NLY trades are profitable. This past month, Mortgage-REITS have been under pressure because of the "White House" sicking the SEC on them. so I needed to take defensive action, but still wanted to be in on ex-dividend day.

I got lucky, because I made up any NAV losses from the gubmint attacks and made some money too. Plus, I still have the dividend coming at the end of the month.

I'll be looking for my next opportunity to play the volatility.

Jim said...

All of us are waiting right now to see if Brinker was correct at calling the bottom. Before anyone gives him too much credit let's look at the method he uses. It's simply technical analysis.

Brinker's pattern is always the same. He typically waits for a major correction that exceeds 15% and then tries to identify a buy point. His method almost always involves establishing an initial low and then waiting for a retest on lower volume. Then he issues a subscriber alert.

This method however is not something he developed. It can be found in almost any book on TA and is known by many technicians on Wall Street.This is why the market usually has some kind of rally at this point. Many on the street know the chart pattern also so they jump in, at least short-term.

In this case he identified 1129 as the level. It retested that level so he gave the alert. However in this case it penetrated that level with the Monday close at 1099. That's what makes me skeptical of this rally. TA though is never 100% accurate.

Anyway, if Brinker can identify bottoms it doesn't really matter unless he can recognize tops as well.

Anonymous said...

Anyway, if Brinker can identify bottoms it doesn't really matter unless he can recognize tops as well.

So you are saying he both pitches and catches. I have no doubt.

tfb

Dan G said...

Today could possibly be the "follow-through" day based on the futures. Lots of jobs created...about twice that expected. And this is the first day of the "follow-through" window following the rally.

What is needed is strong volume along with a big price movement in one or more of the major indexes.

Bob may have been right on this call. If so, be prepared to hear a lot of crowing this Sunday!

Dan G said...

Whoa! Maybe I spoke too soon. Big rise on the opening, but the sizzle looks like it could turn to fizzle, in which case this could be labeled as a "bull trap".

S&Ps look particularly weak this morning when compared to the Dow.

But it's way too early to tell, so I'm pouring my coffee and settling back to what could turn out to be a VERY interesting day.

So don't uncork the chanpaign just yet, Bob! Better wait for the close.

Anonymous said...

"This past month, Mortgage-REITS have been under pressure because of the "White House" sicking the SEC on them. so I needed to take defensive action, but still wanted to be in on ex-dividend day."

NLY is under pressure from Bernanke twisting the yield curve too. Lower long term rates and higher short terms rates are bad news for a company like NLY.

Ann L Lee

Anonymous said...

With this recent NLY decline, we lost 4 months of dividends.

Unfortunately for me, this was the first time I held NLY for the dividend. Normally I sell it a couple of times for a 60 cen swing each time during the quarter. This time, I decided to hold the dividend and what happens? I plunges. I should have sold at $18 like I always did. I didn't think it would go sub $15 like it did. I am a fool.

fooltrader

Honeybee said...

Well, I'm now hoping NLY keeps going down so I can get another fat pitch at it.

I was also in on ex-dividend day, so looking forward to that 60-cent per share dividend at the end of the month.

But I traded my shares enough to clear at least two dividend payouts while waiting.

Anonymous said...

i lost more than that on NLY..this pos has lost 16% or so in the last 3 months..that is more than 4 months worth of dividends.

Investor952

Honeybee said...

Investor952,

I'm sure sorry to hear that you have lost so much on NLY.

You must have bought at the July high in the 18.50 range. Had you not charted the fluctuations of it before buying?

It's been very volatile since that flash-crash a while back.

That said, are you aware that it went ex-dividend on September 28th? So at least you will get that at the end of October -- 28th, I think.