To my knowledge, Bob Brinker has only recommended one oil stock in all these years and that was Suncor (SU) back in May 2009. The buy price was the "mid-$20 range."
Beginning in June 2009, Bob recommended Suncor in the low-$30 range and each month thereafter, it was listed as a buy "below $33." Now here in October 2011, after it declined over 45% off its high (before recovering slightly), Marketimer simply says that Suncor is "attractive for purchase."
Suncor has done a full round-trip ride from Bob's $27 buy price to a top of $47.73 in March 2011 and then lost all those gains, bottoming at $24 on October 3, 2011 -- lower than the original buy-price in 2009. (Yahoo lists the 52-week Range:22.55 - 48.53.)
Be aware that Bob did not add Suncor to any of his model portfolios, rather he added it to his list of off-the-books stocks. So this will have no affect on his "official performance record" as reported by Hulbert Financial Digest.
In the past, if stocks on that list do well, he will talk about the recommendation. But if stocks on that list go down, he sometimes removes them from the list and never mentions them again.
Round trips are getting to be the norm for Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolios. Since March 2003, Brinker has been a buy and holder. No timing moves whatsoever in his model portfolios.
In 2008, his stock portfolios both lost almost 40%. And now riding out another 20% decline in the S&P 500 during the past couple of months can't be fun for those who are still underwater from 2008 and 2009 -- like Bob's model portfolios are....
Was Bob's oil stock choice a good one, or would he have done better with BNO or USO? First, let's read what he said about it on Moneytalk February 20, 2011. This is from my Summary of that show:
Brinker replied: "Let me share with you something I've done personally and I've also recommended in my investment letter.. And that is turning a potential negative into a positive, literally. And that is to invest in oil stock that is in a politically safe region. And the region that I've chosen, I consider to be the most politically safe regions in the world, which is Canada. And Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the United States in the world.....
.....The reality in the mid-east has been very, very ugly, very unstable......I would agree with anybody that calls the mid-east a giant tinderbox......Aside from the fact that about 3% of the world's daily oil supply floats through the Suez Canal.....a substantial portion of the world's oil supply comes out of Saudi Arabia....So when you consider the potential risk to the world's oil supply......and when you oil that you can identify, long sources of oil supply and decades of proven reserves....in political stable reasons.....And again, I mention Canada as one of my favorites, the negative becomes a positive."
I think we may find some answers in this chart which compares SU, BNO and USO over the past six months. Click to enlarge:
20 comments:
Your chart and story remind me of Bob Brinker's ONLY 1990s stock pick for his newsletter in the semiconductor capital equipment group. I recall DanG posted in 2000 that he was selling his shares bought on Brinker's advice for nearly a 50% loss. (about $30 to about $15, give or take... memory is fading....)
Most of the other stocks in that market sector went up with some up 10x or more. Thanks to a caller asking a question on PBS after the horrible performance, we learned the company had a financial relationship with Brinker and Brinker never returned to the PBS show after that question despite being invited back.
Makes you wonder .....
Yes, Bozo Bob, your recollection is perfect.
Bob Brinker touted that stock using an anonymous pen-name for a couple of years, all the while he had an inside financial relationship with the company. (The relationship was confirmed by Paul Kangas on Nightly Business Report.)
Brinker actually harassed anyone who said they wanted to short the stock.
Here's a sample from my "mistertopes" (AKA: Bob Brinker) files:
To:A. Wayne who wrote (2845)
From: mister topes Friday, Oct 30, 1998 5:54 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 3554
The whining over UTEK is very hard to believe. Considering that SVGI cratered into single digits along with many other small cap semi capex stocks, UTEK has held like a rock despite participating fully in the industries earnings woes. If UTEK can hold the mid teens throughout this worst of all worlds earnings season for semi capex companies, what will this stock do when fundmentals improve and new products start to ship. Seems to me those short millions of UTEK shares may have a real problem finding shares available to buy back at these prices in the face of an industry turnaround down the road. I would not even consider being short this stock now given the shareholder demographics and the narrowing floating supply. No way. Not to mention $6.60 in cash and $10.60 in book value.
Silicon Investor
Also: Back when Bob Brinker was anonymously touting that stock, it was not illegal. Now it is....Thus, he doesn't do that anymore -- to my knowledge.
Gee, you'd think I'd remember a 50% loss, but I don't. I do remember UTEK though, so it's possible I did lose that much.
It's not my normal behavior, however. I rarely if ever let losses go to 50%. 10% is about my limit, and 7-8% is more like it.
- Dan G
Dan,
Like Bozo, I'm not sure of the exact percentages of the loss. To me, that wasn't the important point. To me, the point is that it all got swept under the rug.
I think that Jeffchristie may have some cold, hard numbers for us....I hope.
Dan, If I recall, you said you were selling for a tax loss around $16 to offset gains you had in other stocks or funds you sold when Brinker said to raise 60% cash. My guess is you were more enamored with Brinker's ability back then so you held on, perhaps due to the online "encouragement" of the various fake names promoting the stock.
Honeybee, I remember Dan posted the information on the old 101 where "someone" conveniently got all the old discussion posts removed despite their ability to generate revenue for the company even after it was closed.
OK, Bozo Bob. That sounds like a possibility. But it wouldn't happen again since all my funds are in tax deferred accounts, so no tax losses or offsets.
And for sure, I did think much more of Brinker back in those days. I used to listen for 6 hours every weekend! Lately, not so much.
He drives me nuts when he refuses to talk about the market even though everyone knows he's getting calls about it. That's why I rarely listen anymore. I'd rather take a look at Honey's summary. That doesn't take 3 hours!
Looks like Bozo is way off base again. Dan should know how much loss he took shouldn't he?
XXXXXX
bfann
[Post edited -- personal attack]
NLY has been downhill since going ex-divvy.
Been dollar-cost average down, with prayers to see 17+ by end of November 2011. No guarantees with so much negative news on mREIT.
Looking forward to next year 2012, new normal for NLY might be average price range 15-17 with divvy of $1.80-$2.00 divvy 12% yield.
The ride has been too good since 2008?
Many will see capital depreciation if they bought NLY 18+.
Can't win...
joetong
Maybe Dan SHOULD know, BFan, but he doesn't. That was some 11 years ago! I can barely remember what I had for lunch today. Oh wait, I haven't eaten lunch yet...I don't think.
Anyway, I do remember UTEK, but don't know if I took a 50% loss. And I'm really not inclined to go back to my 2000 tax return to find out.
Joetong,
Thanks for the info on NLY. I sometimes read your posts on the NLY Yahoo message board, but sure enjoy it when you share them here.
I sold my position and waiting for a new entry point. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to want to go down much. On the contrary, it's been going up the past couple of days.
However, I'm in no hurry because I qualify for the dividend that is being paid out at the end of this month.
I really like to double and triple the huge dividend with trades during the three-months in between ex-dividend.
But since the SEC is making noises and interest rates may move a little higher, I will not be buying and holding NLY for the long-term.
Jeffchristie sent this. At one time, pen-name Rillinois, was probably the top Bob Brinker commentator.
Later, there was professional conflict that precluded him from continuing to post. (Don't tell anyone this secret, but I have wondered if our own JIM is Rillinois or maybe Birdbrain.)
Brinker despised him with a passion and even said that he hoped he would "rest in pieces." I'll post a copy of that little insight into Brinker's character later.
Here is part one of what Rillinois posted about UTEK:
From: Rillinois Read Replies (2) of 42822
The following was posted on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk board on AOL by me on Jan. 16, 1998.
Bob,
Let me say first that you were the one who showed me the advantages of investing in index funds. They provide tax-efficiency, a low cost way of investing, and the performance is better than most actively managed funds. (Thank you). Furthermore, I agree with your comments that mutual fund managers are in denial when it comes to being able to beat the market consistently. Bob, there is no doubt that you have a vast knowledge of financial matters and I have no intention of taking that away from you. My contention, however, is that you might also be in denial when it comes to thinking that you can outperform the market with your stock selections.
Two weeks ago, you had a caller ask you about Ascend Communications and Seagate Technology. He said his broker recommended these stocks to him recently. ASND at approx. $40 and SEG at approx. $35. You quickly made the comment that SEG is a "teenager" and went on to say that the caller should fire his broker and I believe you suggested he should look at index funds as a better investment vehicle. I thought this comment was premature.
Bob, you made your first mention of UTEK on the Nightly Business Report. The date was May 31, 1996. Here is the text from the transcript:
KANGAS: Any individual stocks, new ones that you would buy at these levels?
BRINKER: There are great small cap ideas and in the technology area, particularly, Ultratech Stepper, which manufactures photolithography systems.
KANGAS: Symbol?
BRINKER: UTEK on the Nasdaq 25.
KANGAS: Okay.
BRINKER: And this company is making systems for the manufacturer of semiconductors and thin film that's also for disk drives. And outstanding outlook, rapid growth, and I think it's very attractive.
Within weeks UTEK hit a low of $14 on July 15, 1996. I remember you blasting across the airwaves that UTEK was a "ROARING BUY" under $20. And it may have been, but I didn't forget that you first recommended it at $25 on NBR on May 31, 1996. You went on to finally recommend UTEK in your newsletter in July of 1997 at under $24. And then, most recently, you recommended UTEK in your October newsletter at under $30.
You said, "...
Continued next post:
Rillinois post Continued:
You said, "...and we now rate UTEK shares 'buy up to $30' should short-term weakness occur." Well, sure enough short-term weakness occurred. In fact, on October 17, 1997, UTEK closed at $29.25 and, to your credit I'm sure, UTEK opened the following day at $33. (I wonder how many MoneyTalk Treckies saw the close below $30 and called in an order to buy at the open...?) You also made mention of UTEK for the second time on Nightly Business Report on October 17, 1997. Here is the text from the transcript:
BRINKER: Yes. Ultratech Stepper is, I think, a special situation in capital equipment. They have a new process, Paul, "P-Gild" which is an advanced laser thermal processing tool for semiconductor manufacture in the smaller geometries. This is a big potential market. Could be a $2 billion market within a few years. They have other new products. They have a new mask-making division, Ultrabeam. They'll be coming in in '98. And they have a new pole-trimming tool, which is used for disk drive manufacturers. Saves a lot of money for the manufacturers in that area. I think Ultratech Stepper would be my single best purchase at this point. I would recommend buying that stock right in here tonight, in the 29-and-a-fraction area.
KANGAS: OK. That's U-T-E-K.
BRINKER: Yes. UTEK.
KANGAS: NASDAQ.
BRINKER: NASDAQ.
Bob, you said UTEK "would be my single best purchase at this point. I would recommend buying that stock right in here tonight, in the 29-and-a-fraction area." Well, Bob, you virtually picked the top. UTEK opened the next day at $33 and it went as high as $34.125 the following day, but that's it.
I feel the need to post these facts because it seems there are many of your listeners who feel that you are currently recommending UTEK at $17 and have no idea of the other untimely recommendations that you have made regarding UTEK. And the reason they believe this, Bob, is because you with all due respect are a "Spin Doctor" when it comes to your stock selections.
Shortly after the start of the Asian crisis when UTEK was at $27.25, you stated in your November newsletter very specifically, "We do not view the current problems in Southeast Asia as a major problem for Ultratech Stepper." In that same issue you said, "In the interim, we suggest that subscribers use any short-term weakness in the mid-to-high twenties to scoop up bargain priced shares while the opportunity exists." I also remember you talking on the radio in November saying that even though there might be pricing pressures in the chip manufacturing industry due to the Asian Crisis, you contended that those companies still needed the equipment to build the chips and remain competitive. Hence, UTEK shouldn't be effected.
Continued next post:
Rillinois post continued:
Furthermore, I couldn't believe you said in your January issue, "An exceptional buying opportunity could occur in our view if short-term disappointment in fourth quarter earnings creates share price weakness toward the 1997 low of $17 per share...We continue to recommend purchase, especially on weakness." HELLO BOB..., what about the weakness you said we should have taken advantage of in October under $30 and the weakness in the mid-to-high twenties in November. Is it the same weakness that made you like this stock under $30 that now makes you love it around $17? How many times have I heard that statement from brokers....If you liked it at $30, you've got to love it at $17....Come on, Bob, you should know better than that!
Also, in the first week of December (UTEK closed at $25.5), a caller asked you if you were still positive on UTEK...your response was, "ABSOLUTELY." Today UTEK is at $19 11/16. Anybody following this advice must be running out of money to take advantage of this persistent weakness, Bob. Don't you agree?
I know full well that you advise limiting individual stock exposure to 4% max. of equities, but you didn't advise dollar-cost averaging into UTEK at $30, Bob, you said "it would be my single best purchase at this point...."
Finally, let's look at your performance since you first recommended UTEK on May 31, 1996, at $25. An investment in UTEK purchased at $25 on May 31, 1996, would be down over 21%, today. That compares with a return in the S&P 500 of over 43% in that same time period, excluding dividends, of course. Negative 21% versus positive 43%. Even worse, anybody who followed your advise in October and bought UTEK under $30 would be down over 34% in just 3 months. Is this the way a "ROARING BUY" should perform, Bob? I don't think so...
Wow, don't you think investors would have been better off in an index fund than following your recommendation on UTEK. This is the advise you gave that caller two weeks ago when he asked you about ASND and SEG, isn't it? Now I know, Bob, this is a long-term investment, but you never considered that ASND or SEG was a long-term investment when you made the suggestion he should fire his broker. What if this is just short-term weakness in the shares of ASND or SEG? Why shouldn't he buy ASND or SEG on weakness?
Stop putting a positive spin on this recommendation, Bob. UTEK will eventually go up, but your timing has been the worst. You were definitely early on this one. Your spin on how UTEK will eventually hit $40 in the long-term is ridiculous. If you are not going to acknowledge that you blew the timing on this, then what was the big deal about waiting to buy under $30. If UTEK becomes a huge winner will it really matter if you paid $30 or $34. I'm willing to assume that you wouldn't have recommended UTEK at $30 in October, if you thought it had a chance of going to $17 by January.
The fact of the matter (just like you taught me, Bob) is that individuals, including mutual fund managers, can not time or outperform the market consistently. Not even you, Bob. Again, I realize you recommend index funds, but why even bother trying to outperform the market with stock picks. Is it human nature, Bob? Did you think you could outperform the market?
BTW, I do not own UTEK, ASND, or SEG.
Thank you, Bob, and I'll be listening.
Rillinois
Silicon Investor
I'd rather take a look at Honey's summary. That doesn't take 3 hours!
It would actually be quite speedier if "somebody" would remember to put links to the posts near the top of the thread, but sombody else is NOT going to bring it up NOOMORE.
Why not Mr Pig? You've got me trained to count on you to remind me. :)
"[Post edited -- personal attack]"
Why would you reward anyone who makes personal attacks with any sort of recognition by allowing any part of his message to get through?
KnotaFan of bfan
Because I detest Bob Brinker's use of censorship to control what people allowed to say.
He started it on his message boards and has used it ever since, including on Moneytalk. We are all aware that he won't allow anyone on the air who asks questions that would expose him.
I try to go the other way as far as possible, but at the same time, protect friends who are being unfairly attacked or lied about.
Here is what someone said about Brinker at another site. He even mentions this Blog.
From: YellowBull Replying To : Bman (post 459709) Aug 20 2011 8:51PM
Title: Bob Brinker
Bman,
ya I catch his show here and there. You can always catch his views at this guys blog who is religious about documenting them. His view is the same. He has actually become really annoying to listen to lately. At one time I really used to respect this dude, but now he really let's his ideolgy get in the way of his views. He still believe S&P will get in the 1400+ range by the end of the year and tears anyone apart that supports gold. When he cites gold performance vs. S&P he always conveniently picks time spans when the S&P 500 has out peformed. But obviously we all know the peformance of the last decade of the S&P has significantly underpeformed gold. When callers call in and address the real underlying issues that plague are economy he has a way of twisting facts and the real question in such a way as to make the caller look stupid. It's really strange...almost as if he doesn't understand the callers point at all. On some topics like the subprime mortgage meltdown he is right on and concedes their was a lack of regulation and is very critical of the repeal of glass-steagall, unlike some folks who want to blame the consumer for the problem. Brinker is one strange and unique dude. He did give an all out buy signal when the S&P 500 was at 1030 in July of 2010 but has not given any sell signal yet. He may just end up with egg on his face and it won't be the first time.
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459711 living off the 90s
from Bman on Aug 20 2011 9:09PM
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