On this red-eye program on Red Eye Radio WABC77 New York, Brinker talked about what caused the crash of 2008. This has been Brinker's favorite topic since about May, 2009, when he realized the market had turned up again. However, Brinker never addressed this subject on Moneytalk at any time when it was happening -- hindsight is wonderful. Brinker discussed the future effects of all this. Let's see how accurate Brinker's foresight was from 4 months ago:
Redeye host, Doug introduced Bob Brinker: "Bob Brinker has been the host of Moneytalk for well over 20 years and actually syndicated since 1986, and at Bobbrinker. com all things Bob Brinker. And his newsletter, Marketimer, many of you have and don't make an investment move without consulting it......Bob, how are you?"
Honey EC: Perhaps Doug didn't know that many have had Brinker's newsletter and made "moves" that they lived to bitterly regret. Some have even had to postpone their retirements.
Brinker said: "Doing well, Doug, it's great to be with you on Redeye."
Doug said: "......Of course you're heard all over the country on fine radio stations, including KABC in Los Angeles and many other. We have so much to talk about. Where do we kick this off? We've got Libya, we've got Japan, we've got all the turmoil in the middle east, and gas prices. But I think that starting point I'd like to get to is the market crash of 'o8 that sort of became the game changer when the table got kicked over.....In your opinion, have we fundamentally learned anything."
Brinker said: "It may or may not matter in our lifetimes whether we did learn anything. I know that's a surprising answer, but if you really analyze, it may not matter. Here is why I say that Doug. What happened in 2008 was something of historic significance. That is, something under the surface that was very, very difficult for most to see, which was the sub-prime crisis that had been building for some time in a stealth manner..... undermining the financial and the banking system. And of course, it blew up in 2008 and the rest is history......The reason I say it may not matter how much we learned in our lifetimes from that event..... is because the chances of something exactly like that happening again.... in any reasonable time frame....even measured.....in decades are slim and none..... and slim just left the building.....
.....It was a particularly unique set of circumstances that brought this about. You know the drill. The government pushed to get everybody to own a house.....That never made any sense. But the government pushed to get banks to make loans to people that couldn't repay them. A mortgage industry...... which was basically running wild. And that DVD was X-rated because the things they were doing in the mortgage market were unseemly. .....Your listeners on Red Eye want to read a couple of books....It's like going to school.....One is by Andrew Ross Sorkin....His book is "Too Big to Fail." ....It's such a big hit, they are making it into an HBO film which will come on this summer. All-star Hollywood cast which will include the likes of William Hurt, and they will more or less re-live the events of 2008. Another book to go to school with....."All the Devil's are Here" by Bethany McClain.......
.......Did we learn anything? Very hard question to answer because....the regulations that have been put into place, well now there's a campaign to undo them and frankly, they're not that tight anyway. So it's highly questionable how much things have actually changed. The good news is that the real estate market is in the doldrums. It's going to take time for it to get out of the doldrums, so we're not going really have to worry about a new sub-prime crisis coming at us. It's not going to happen."
Here are Birdbrain's comments about what Brinker said:
- birdbrain said...
- Kudos to Rob in Pasadena for the link to Brinker's syndicated appearance. Some of his reasons for the 2008 crash were: Government pushing everyone to own a house Mortgage brokers running wild Absurd lending practices At the time Mr B was well aware of these conditions and still was frozen in the headlights, unwilling to change his bullish stance on the market. If you knew of him only from this interview you would be impressed with his overall perspective on financial matters. Red eye radio? How about red ink?
- March 22, 2011 7:39 PM
Doug asked Brinker if the economy could recover without the housing market recovering.
Brinker said: "There is no question whatsoever that the United States economy is in a period of recovery, which is quite remarkable considering what we went through a couple of years ago. We have real..... GDP growth estimate is between 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 annual rate.....So we have what we call a slow to moderate growth in the economy track right now. And it is definitely happening without the help of the housing sector. The housing sector along the bottom.....It's unlikely to go anywhere this year because 2011 should be the peak year.... for foreclosure activity. After 2011, we should see dwindling foreclosure activity......"
Doug asked Brinker what other sectors are leading the recovery then.
Brinker said: "We have two sectors that are leading the recovery, they're very powerful. One of them is manufacturing........The reason that's doing so well is because United States exports are doing very well. Now part of the reason for that..... is because we have a weak dollar.....The price of our exported products on the shelves overseas becomes more competitive......We're actually seeing some good orders in the automobile industry, of all things......"
Doug asked Brinker what kinds of things is it that America is manufacturing that are success stories.
Brinker said: " I think one of our leading success stories has to be our technology industry. For example, the products that are being invented, improved and exported out of Silicon Valley, USA......particularly in Northern California......And I'll just give you one example of a company that's a leader in that area, which is clearly is Apple....."
Doug asked Brinker if those things were actually made here. Brinker replied that a lot of things were sent offshore because of the cheap labor -- lot of products are made in Asia.
Doug said that a lot of folks are hurting because of jobs being sent offshore. Brinker explained the "hubcap theory" and globalization to Doug, and said that we knew it was coming -- that he had talked about it for over 25 years on Moneytalk. Brinker is totally against protectionism, and said that America exported 1.3 Trillion dollars worth of goods around the world in 2010.
Doug asked Brinker several questions about China. In general, Brinker is all for trading with China in spite of the fact that they use child labor, etc.
Doug asked Brinker about oil prices. Brinker reminded Doug that "Beggars cannot be choosers."
Doug said: "Host of Moneytalk, heard all over the country on hundreds and hundreds of stations. His newsletter, Marketimer, is read by thousands and thousands of people who want to stay on top of their finances in these turbulent times and he's with us tonight to talk about all things economic."
Honey EC: I think Doug might have gotten carried away with his sales pitch for Brinker because I seriously doubt that Moneytalk is on "hundreds and hundreds" of radio stations.
As for "thousands and thousands" of people reading Marketimer, if that is so, why does Brinker still work on Sundays well past retirement age? And why is he up in the middle of the night doing guest appearance on a program that runs from 1am to 4am?
Doug asked Brinker what he thought about the 14 Trillion dollar national debt and states that are in trouble. As usual, Brinker zeroed in on California. When he finally got back to the national debt, he said that when interest rates normalize, it will be very serious.
Brinker actually took several calls, but the subjects were on world events, etc. There was nothing that had anything to do with the stock market or the title of his newsletter. One caller said he heard it reported that someone in China said they planned to take over the United States and even commit genocide here. Brinker came a bit unglued, but Doug handled it very well.
Caller Richard asked Brinker how old he is. Brinker laughed and said he had "adopted the Jack Benny model and stopped at 39." LOL! I think Richard was offended at Brinker's cavalier attitude about the exporting of real American jobs. And he sounded a bit sarcastic when he told Brinker he was probably a smart man.
SOME COMMENTARY:
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Jim said... - Honey, I listened to the interview Brinker gave using the link provided. You are definitely right that his stock market advice during that time was "off limits". I'm sure he insisted on those terms before agreeing to do the interview. It's good Brinker never became a politician. Imagine for a moment if he would have to go on "Meet the Press". Suppose the host of this radio program would have started off by saying: " Bob,in 2008 you predicted the stock market would go to record highs, but instead it dropped 57%. What went wrong?"
- Bartee said...
- all you guys are so sharp.. and thanks to HoneyBee with her freedom of speech site .. it shows how "ON" Brinker is and the listeners are on it .. BRING IT... I can't believe Brinkers place wouldn't let Honeybee get his newsletter.. afraid?? DUH .. I think the Russian may have been a "ILove you Brinker" plant ,, his call didnt make sense... I have only one word for you HoneyBee..WINNING.
