Sunday, January 15, 2017

January 15, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Re-Run Monologues and Old Spliced Calls

January 15, 2017...Bob Brinker was NOT live on Moneytalk today......(comments welcome)

Even though, Bob Brinker never has it announced as such, the program was once again PRETEND-to-be-live with pre-recorded monologues and spliced OLD calls.

So what's up with Bob Brinker? I hope he is not ill because since  November 20th, when he was live for two hours, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk has been vast majority of re-runs.

How many years could he get away with redoing old monologues and splicing together old calls while pretending to be live and continuing to advertise Marketimer and Moneytalk on demand?
November 27th: Re-Runs
December 11th: Re-Runs
December 25th: Re-Runs
January 1st: Re-Runs 
January 15th: Re-Runs

Sunday, January 8, 2017

January 8, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Stocks, Bonds, Economic Commentary

January 8, 2017....Bob Brinker is live on Moneytalk today....(comments welcome)

STOCK MARKET  CAUTION....BB comments: Of course, 2016 was a very successful investment year. A great year to be fully invested - we've been fully invested and remained so in 2016. I don't know how long that's going to last, but we were able to do it in 2016. The S&P 500 total returns, counting the dividends, came in at 11% for the year. That is a double digit year in the win column.

BRINKER THINKS STOCK MARKET RISK IS ON TABLE......BB comments: "I follow my own work, obviously. I would say that if I wanted to lighten my equity exposure, I would do so when I see evidence that the risk/reward ratio has changed.  Now we don't how it will change when it changes. Will it change because a bear market is going to happen - and that is what happened back in 2000.  We issued a sell signal in January 2000. We took most of our model portfolio money out of the market. We didn't put it back in until March of 2003, near the bottom. Will we get that scenario, or will we just get a significant market correction? We don't know yet. What we do know is that those risks are ON THE TABLE in 2017.

Honey EC: Brinker's Marketimer portfolios remained fully invested in the latest mega-bear market that happened in 2008 and bottomed in March 2009 - losing 57% top to bottom. So in order to decide whether or not he will do what he did in 2000 (raised 65% cash) or 2008 (raised no cash), one should remember that he is 50-50 on the last two bear markets.

MORE BOND AND STOCK CAUTION.... Caller James from El Paso who said his net worth was "5.5" (I assume that's $millions since he also said he had Critical Mass), needed to know how to blend in another $250,000 safely into 5-50 holdings - said he was concerned about both the stock and bond markets.
BB replied: "You are right on both counts. I have to tell you that the market has come a long, long way. While some of us would hope that this would continue forever. I think it is very unlikely that this kind of activity is going to continue forever. We've just gone through a period here where if you go back to March, 2009 and we are only a couple of months away from March of 2017. So we are close to 8 years. That's a very long time. In fact, this is already the second longest stretch of all time for this kind of market. So I could not agree with you more that this is not some kind of fantastic opportunity to be buying into the stock market. As far as the bond side is concerned, I think that there are ways to invest in the bond market by keeping the duration down. I mentioned that we were able to generate a 4.7 return in 2016 in our fixed income portfolio while keeping the duration under 2 years.....
HONEY THINKS THERE IS RISK TO BELIEVING THAT BRINKER WILL CALL A MARKET TOP AND RAISE CASH EVER AGAIN and here's why:  Brinker actual asset - allocation history.

DROPPED OUT OF THE DOUBLELINE TOTAL BOND FUND....James interjected: "I noticed that you dropped out of the DoubleLine Total Bond Fund...." (Brinker interrupted):  "Before  the effective date for that, James, when that switch comes up, I'd rather not talk about that today. We can talk about it next week. Yes, I did make that switch in the investment letter. That's effective on January 10th. The reasons for that are stipulated in the investment letter, but in a short phrase, I prefer short durations."

Honey EC: The first time that Brinker sold DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund was in his big  2013 push to go to very low duration bond funds was in 2013.  Subsequently, interest rates did not go up as he expected so he bought DLTNX again in 2015. Now he has sold  it again for the second time as of this month.  He moved that cash into the  3 mutual funds remaining in the portfolio. 

VANGUARD ULTRA SHORT-TERM BOND FUND (DURATION 0.9%)....BB said: "I did check that out...The yield is 1.25%, so that means a 1% increase in rates, which is probable over the next year would cost close to 1% in yield. You'd wind up with no return.....I don't see  a whole lot of upside in using that fund. That is why I have not been using that fund myself in the investment letter (Marketimer), because I don't see a lot of upside.....I agree that it's been very difficult to find funds at Vanguard that qualify based on what I'm looking for.

MARKETIMER FIXED INCOME PORTFOLIO....BB continued:  In the investment letter, in our page 7 income portfolio....we had a total return....of 4.7% in 2016, and that is a very good return, because we did not take much interest rate risk. The average duration is below 2%....In fact, we are in the process of reducing it this month as stipulated in the investment letter. So to get a 4.7% return while taking very little interest rate risk was a win-win for us in 2016.  I agree that if you want to stick to Vanguard family of funds it's tough to find funds. We aren't using any of them currently....

Honey EC:  Brinker keeps repeating that he isn't taking interest rate risk, but what he isn't saying is that he is taking a great deal of credit risk. MOF, the Osterweis Fund (OSTIX) is 73% high yield bonds, with this breakdown:  BB = 14% ;  B = 35%; and Below-B = 17%.

Honey EC2: While 4.7% is  a lot better than he did the last three years in this portfolio, Brinker should compare this performance to corporate bonds - not government bonds. OSTIX holds no government bonds, and I don't think the other two (MWCRX or DLSNX) do either - that could be easily checked. According to Jim, Corporate bonds had an outstanding year:
Long term government bonds had small but positive gains while corporates had an outstanding year. The Vanguard Long Term Corporate Index (VLTCX) was +10.60%.
EMPLOYMENT REPORTS..... Thanks to dRahmeShort clip of opening monologue. 

BIGGEST IN THE WORLD LAS VEGAS CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW....Brinker talked about that "really big show" in Vegas about the future, and the amazing things that are developing. Thanks to dRahme (first half): Short clip from hour-two monologue.

MULTI-MILLIONAIRE WITH CRITICAL MASS....Caller Tom from Houston gets sympathy and some personal tax  guidance on what the "president-elect" might do next year. Thanks to dRahme, the interesting call starts at 5.50 on this short clip. 


WHAT'S COMING UP NEXT WEEK... Thanks to dRahme: Short clip of expected economic reports next week.

FRANKJ'S  MONEYTALK GUEST AUTHOR SUMMARY

Bob’s third hour guest on January 8, 2017 was Rahul Telang, co-author of a book titled, "Streaming, Sharing, Stealing: Big Data and the Future of Entertainment” The book’s other author is Michael D. Smith. 

They discussed fake product reviews and fake news. Fake product reviews can be either positive or negative. Companies have a chance of deleting fake reviews if they want to take the time and effort. Fake news is a different story. News travels so fast it takes almost instant action to stamp out a fake news story.

There was some discussion of Netflix and the series House of Cards. The guest said this series followed a different formula. The whole series was “sold,” versus the usual model where a pilot is produced and then they go from there. Netflix popped up a few more times in the interview.

The internet and new technologies make it tougher for advertisers because consumers can skip ads. The guest thinks this means “content” will move behind paywalls.

Unless you are a big sports fan, cable has little to offer. People pay high rates end up watching very few of the channels available. Also, people are dropping land lines for phones.

The guest thinks the future of the film industry is pretty good. But who will be the leader in creating and distributing the content? He says on-line platforms will give Hollywood a run for their money. They have data on their customers and they know how to promote a film to these people, whereas Hollywood does not have this advantage. For example, Netflix made several different trailers for House of Cards in an attempt to market this series to different types of Netflix users.

Honey here: Thanks, FrankJ....So Brinker's point in having on this guest was what? :) 

JEFFCHRISTIE'S MONEYTALK FINAL EXAM QUESTION 

Bob Brinker referred to non traded REITS as:

A. Voodoo investments.
B. Satanic investments.
C. Zombie investments.
D. Demonic investments.

ANSWER

Honey here: Thanks Jeffchristie! BB doesn't need to worry, I understand that home-owners insurance insures against Zombies.  :) 

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