Bob Brinker's Moneytalk was not broadcast this Sunday, so this is an opportunity to post a complete review of Bob Brinker's most devastating market-timing blunder.
You may find it difficult to believe that someone with Bob Brinker's reputation would do something like what I'm going to tell you. But the facts are indisputably well-documented in Marketimer, and the actual "special" bulletins from Brinker. I also have a lengthy file of first-person testimonies from people who were seriously damaged because they trusted Brinker.
At best, this was a tragedy, but the cover-up and lies were inexcusable. And to this day, he announces himself on Moneytalk as "America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor" and warns of sharks. Many people were financially hurt by this, and current subscribers and Moneytalk listeners are in the dark because it was buried.
For those who wonder why it is still important, here are the reasons:
*Brinker never took responsibility for the trade in his own model portfolios, even though he advised subscribers to use a percentage model portfolio cash reserves previously raised from theirs.
* Brinker never closed the trade and actually covered it up by repurchasing the same investment after a 70%+ drop and THEN adding it to his model portfolios
* Brinker's Marketimer official performance record is skewed in his favor to this day, because the trade was never accounted for. It has been estimated that if this trade was included in his model portfolios, it would have dropped his performance numbers by 2% a year.
* Mark Hulbert knows this but has never accounted for it in Hulbert Financial Digest, so his Marketimer performance ranking is exaggerated. (Hulbert recently added Marketimer to his Honor Roll, in spite of the fact that he uses a footnote to explain HIS reason for not accounting for the QQQ trade in HFD).Here is what happened:
In January, 2000, Brinker moved 60% of his equity portfolios to cash. In August 2000, he moved another 5% to cash for a total of 65% in cash reserves. He told subscribers to wait for instructions on how to use these cash reserves. If he had stayed there, this move would have looked brilliant. But the story is only beginning.
October 16, 2000, Brinker issued a special bulletin advising subscribers to "Act Immediately" and buy QQQ in anticipation of a 2 to 4 months "counter-trend rally" -- for a 20% or more gain. Callers to the office were told "Bob is comfortable with QQQ at $86." The advice in the bulletin was: Aggressive investors told to put 30 to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ. Conservative investors recommended to put 20 to 30% of cash reserves into QQQ.
Here is the bulletin:
November 6, 2000, Marketimer (QQQ=$81.00) Page one: Brinker said: "Marketimer subscribers with aggressive objectives can invest up to 30% to 50% of cash reserves in either the QQQ shares or Rydex OTC Fund in order to participate in this recommendations. That translates into potential exposure of 19.5% to 32.5% of a TOTAL AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO. (30% of 65% CASH RESERVES equals 19.5%. 50% of 65% cash reserves equals 32.4%). The balance of reserves remain in money market funds.
Conservative subscribers can invest up to 20% to 30% of cash reserves in this recommendation, using either QQQ shares or Rydex OTC Fund shares. That translates into potential exposure of 6.5% to 9.75% of a total BALANCE PORTFOLIO. (20% of 32.5% cash reserves equals 6.5%, 30% of 32.5% CASH RESERVES equals 9.75% of a BALANCED PORTFOLIO. The balance of reserves remain in money market funds."
November 6, 2000, Marketimer, Page two, Brinker said: "In sum, Subscribers can us a portion of their 65% stock market cash reserve position in order to purchase QQQ shares or Rydex OTC Fund....within our page one percentage guidelines."
Brinker said he would give follow-up guidance. Marketimer November, 2000, he said: "During the life of this recommendation, we will provide regular followup guidance in each monthly edition of Marketimer."
He kept his word for 30 months while QQQ crashed over 70%. Then he buried the trade by putting it on hold for the last time and buying news shares of RYOCX and adding it to his model portfolios. Of course, subscribers didn't have the option of buying "new" shares for their portfolios with the cash reserves they had already spent. ONLY BOB BRINKER GOT A QQQ MULLIGAN (and Mark Hulbert helped enable him).
Here's the total sum of the guidance Brinker gave each month until he cleverly covered it up and never mentioned it again in Marketimer or on Moneytalk.
* #3) December 2000, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said that a "countertrend
rally"...."has the potential to carry the Nasdaq indexes as much as
40% to 50% above their late-November closing levels over the next three to six
months." (Brinker's target price was $90--December 1, 2000, QQQQ closed at
$58.38)
* #4) January 2001 Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "We continue to emphasize the guidelines we have recommended with regard to the exposure in the Nasdaq 100 Index for the countertrend rally phase we expect.......we are expecting potential gains for the Nasdaq 100 Index of up to 50% or more as measured from the January 2 closing low....." (January 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $64.30)
.
* #5) February 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker stated that the "bear market rally" had commenced and he expected the timeline to be "three to six months as measured from the starting point Jan 3." Brinker added: "In terms of Nasdaq 100 shares, our expectation of a target range in the 80 to 90 range remains intact. We believe this remains an achievable objective into the second quarter." (February 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $47.45)
.
* #6) March 7, 2001, Marketimer: begins with Bob Brinker admitting that "we were wrong in our earlier expectations that a countertrend rally would develop late last year...." He then admits that even his call for a new bear market rally beginning on January 3 "was unable to sustain upward progress in February. In spite of these admissions of being "wrong," in the same issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker again made the following recommendation to subscribers: "In our view, the probabilities favor a three to six month bear market rally phase beginning shortly. Such a rally has the potential to carry the Nasdaq composite Index above the 3000 level by spring or summer as measured from the closing lows." (March 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $39.15)"
.
* #7) April 6, 2001 Marketimer, Page 2; Paragraph 5: Bob Brinker said, "Recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares has far exceeded our expectations. However, we believe subscribers holding a position in these shares will eventually be rewarded, although this holding will require both time and patience. With or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months." (April 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $46.15)
.
* #8) May 7, 2001 Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "As we stated last month, 'with or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months.'" (May 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $44.73)
.
* #9) June 2001, Marketimer: About the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, Bob Brinker said: "....we recommend holding these shares for future recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (June 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $45.70)
.
* #10) July 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for price recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (July 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $41.76)
.
* #11) August 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker now recommended that subscribers with a "position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery, although patience will continue to be required in the difficult market environment we are experiencing...." (August 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $36.63)
.
* #12) September 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said the following on Page Two: "Subscribers who own Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares purchased at higher prices in the taxable accounts since the fourth quarter of last year can realize short-term losses for current and future use by switching to......XLK.......the differences are sufficient to avoid the wash-sale rule as long as you wait at least 31-days before switching back into the QQQ shares."....."Making this transaction in taxable accounts for tax purposes is consistent with our recommendation to hold QQQ shares for price recovery over time." (September 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $28.98)
.
* #13) October 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "....we recommend holding existing cash reserves. We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (October 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $33.90)
.
* #14) November 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, ".....we recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold these shares as we expect them to trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market." (November 1, 2001 QQQQ closed at $39.65)
.
* #15) December 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said: "....For subscribers with a position in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding in anticipation of higher price levels during the next cyclical bull market." December 1, 2001 QQQQ closed at $38.91--QQQQ closed at $38.73 today, August 17, 2006)
.
* #16) January 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In the case of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we prefer to hold existing positions in the expectation that the next cyclical bull market will provide a much better price level for the Nasdaq 100 Index." (January 2, 2002, QQQQ closed at $40.11)
.
* #17) February 8, 2002, Marketimer: Page 1; Paragraph 4; "We remain concerned that a secular bear market, based on declining valuations, began in March of 2000......The most difficult money making strategy in such a market environment is the buy and hold approach. This strategy has led to large losses since early in 2000, and in our view buy and hold investing is likely to prove disappointing in the stock market environment we anticipate within a secular bear trend. ......We recommend subscribers with a holding in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares hold these shares for recovery during the next cyclical bull market."(QQQ closed February, 8, 2002 at 36.17 and closed today at 38.48.)
.
* #18) March 8, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares can hold these shares in anticipation of much higher prices in the next cyclical bull market in our view." (March 8, 2002, QQQQ closed at $38.67--today it closed at $38.72)
.
* #19) April, 5, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: " ..... We are also retaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, as we expect these shares to rebound during the next cyclical bull market." (April 12, 2002, QQQ closed at $33.52. Right now, QQQQ is at $39.83)
.
* #20) May 8, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are also retaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares. Although the shares remain weak, we expect them to trade well above current levels during the next cyclical bull market." (May 9, 2002 QQQQ closed at $30.95. Today it closed at $39.99)
.
* #21) June 7, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We continue to suggest a patient approach, which includes holding on to your stock market cash reserves. We are maintaining a hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, which have the potential to trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market, in our view." (June 7, 2002, QQQ closed at $28.30-today it is about $40)
.
* #22) July 5, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We continue our policy of not selling into weakness, and recommend those with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for higher prices during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; July 5, 2002, QQQ closed at $26.34; September 29, 2006, QQQQ closed at $40.65)
.
* #23) August 8, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, as we believe they can trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; August 8, 2002, QQQ closed at $23.57; October 12, 2006, QQQQ closed at $42.23)
.
* #24) September 7, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares in anticipation of much higher prices for the shares in the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; September 7, 2002, QQQQ closed at $22.85; October 18, 2006, QQQQ mid-day at $41.83)
.
October 2002 was the actual bottom of the market decline that began in 2000. Bob Brinker, however did not recommend any changes at that time.
.
* #25) October 5, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are now in the 31st month of one of the worst cyclical bears since the 1930's. We recommend continuing to hold stock market cash reserves at this time. We also recommend retaining existing stock market holdings, as we do not view the current period as a propitious time to be a seller of equities." (October 15, 2000 QQQ closed at $81.70; October 7, 2002 QQQ closed at $20.16)
.
* #26) November 8, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "As we continue the process of monitoring our stock market timing indicators, we recommend retaining stock market cash reserves until our model returns to bullish territory. We also recommend holding existing stock market positions at current levels, along with holdings of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; November 8, 2002 QQQQ closed at $25.07)
.
* #27) December 5, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Marketimer recommends retaining existing equity market holdings at this time. This includes existing positions in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; December 5, 2002 QQQQ closed at $26.20)
.
* #28) January 9, 2003, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We also recommend holding existing positions at the current levels, along with holdings of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; January 9, 2003, QQQ closed at $26.70)
.
* #29) February 7, 2003, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We also suggest holding existing positions in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, which have recently shown a measure of resilience relative to the broad market indexes. We expect the Nasdaq indexes to post gains well in excess of the broad market indexes during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; February 7, 2003, QQQ closed at $23.81; November 27, 2006, $43.68)
.
* #30) March 7, 2003 (four days before Brinker's "buy" signal) Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "For subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding for a significant recovery in the shares in the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, a few days after Brinker's "Act Immediately" Bulletin, QQQ closed at $81.70; March 7, 2003--after 30 months of "guidance" to "hold", QQQ closed at $24.54)
.
That was the final time that Marketimer ever mentioned "those holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares" and the trades were never closed.
Beginning in the April, 2003 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker added RYOCX (proxy for QQQQ) to all of his model portfolios at the closing price on March 11, 2003 -- down over 70% since his "Act Immediately Bulletin." That was a very effective way to forever cover up his most costly-to-subscribers stock market-timing blunder of all time.
* #4) January 2001 Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "We continue to emphasize the guidelines we have recommended with regard to the exposure in the Nasdaq 100 Index for the countertrend rally phase we expect.......we are expecting potential gains for the Nasdaq 100 Index of up to 50% or more as measured from the January 2 closing low....." (January 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $64.30)
.
* #5) February 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker stated that the "bear market rally" had commenced and he expected the timeline to be "three to six months as measured from the starting point Jan 3." Brinker added: "In terms of Nasdaq 100 shares, our expectation of a target range in the 80 to 90 range remains intact. We believe this remains an achievable objective into the second quarter." (February 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $47.45)
.
* #6) March 7, 2001, Marketimer: begins with Bob Brinker admitting that "we were wrong in our earlier expectations that a countertrend rally would develop late last year...." He then admits that even his call for a new bear market rally beginning on January 3 "was unable to sustain upward progress in February. In spite of these admissions of being "wrong," in the same issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker again made the following recommendation to subscribers: "In our view, the probabilities favor a three to six month bear market rally phase beginning shortly. Such a rally has the potential to carry the Nasdaq composite Index above the 3000 level by spring or summer as measured from the closing lows." (March 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $39.15)"
.
* #7) April 6, 2001 Marketimer, Page 2; Paragraph 5: Bob Brinker said, "Recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares has far exceeded our expectations. However, we believe subscribers holding a position in these shares will eventually be rewarded, although this holding will require both time and patience. With or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months." (April 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $46.15)
.
* #8) May 7, 2001 Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "As we stated last month, 'with or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months.'" (May 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $44.73)
.
* #9) June 2001, Marketimer: About the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, Bob Brinker said: "....we recommend holding these shares for future recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (June 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $45.70)
.
* #10) July 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for price recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (July 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $41.76)
.
* #11) August 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker now recommended that subscribers with a "position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery, although patience will continue to be required in the difficult market environment we are experiencing...." (August 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $36.63)
.
* #12) September 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said the following on Page Two: "Subscribers who own Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares purchased at higher prices in the taxable accounts since the fourth quarter of last year can realize short-term losses for current and future use by switching to......XLK.......the differences are sufficient to avoid the wash-sale rule as long as you wait at least 31-days before switching back into the QQQ shares."....."Making this transaction in taxable accounts for tax purposes is consistent with our recommendation to hold QQQ shares for price recovery over time." (September 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $28.98)
.
* #13) October 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "....we recommend holding existing cash reserves. We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines." (October 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $33.90)
.
* #14) November 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, ".....we recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold these shares as we expect them to trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market." (November 1, 2001 QQQQ closed at $39.65)
.
* #15) December 2001, Marketimer: Bob Brinker said: "....For subscribers with a position in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding in anticipation of higher price levels during the next cyclical bull market." December 1, 2001 QQQQ closed at $38.91--QQQQ closed at $38.73 today, August 17, 2006)
.
* #16) January 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In the case of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we prefer to hold existing positions in the expectation that the next cyclical bull market will provide a much better price level for the Nasdaq 100 Index." (January 2, 2002, QQQQ closed at $40.11)
.
* #17) February 8, 2002, Marketimer: Page 1; Paragraph 4; "We remain concerned that a secular bear market, based on declining valuations, began in March of 2000......The most difficult money making strategy in such a market environment is the buy and hold approach. This strategy has led to large losses since early in 2000, and in our view buy and hold investing is likely to prove disappointing in the stock market environment we anticipate within a secular bear trend. ......We recommend subscribers with a holding in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares hold these shares for recovery during the next cyclical bull market."(QQQ closed February, 8, 2002 at 36.17 and closed today at 38.48.)
.
* #18) March 8, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares can hold these shares in anticipation of much higher prices in the next cyclical bull market in our view." (March 8, 2002, QQQQ closed at $38.67--today it closed at $38.72)
.
* #19) April, 5, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: " ..... We are also retaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, as we expect these shares to rebound during the next cyclical bull market." (April 12, 2002, QQQ closed at $33.52. Right now, QQQQ is at $39.83)
.
* #20) May 8, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are also retaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares. Although the shares remain weak, we expect them to trade well above current levels during the next cyclical bull market." (May 9, 2002 QQQQ closed at $30.95. Today it closed at $39.99)
.
* #21) June 7, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We continue to suggest a patient approach, which includes holding on to your stock market cash reserves. We are maintaining a hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, which have the potential to trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market, in our view." (June 7, 2002, QQQ closed at $28.30-today it is about $40)
.
* #22) July 5, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We continue our policy of not selling into weakness, and recommend those with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for higher prices during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; July 5, 2002, QQQ closed at $26.34; September 29, 2006, QQQQ closed at $40.65)
.
* #23) August 8, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, as we believe they can trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; August 8, 2002, QQQ closed at $23.57; October 12, 2006, QQQQ closed at $42.23)
.
* #24) September 7, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares in anticipation of much higher prices for the shares in the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; September 7, 2002, QQQQ closed at $22.85; October 18, 2006, QQQQ mid-day at $41.83)
.
October 2002 was the actual bottom of the market decline that began in 2000. Bob Brinker, however did not recommend any changes at that time.
.
* #25) October 5, 2002 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We are now in the 31st month of one of the worst cyclical bears since the 1930's. We recommend continuing to hold stock market cash reserves at this time. We also recommend retaining existing stock market holdings, as we do not view the current period as a propitious time to be a seller of equities." (October 15, 2000 QQQ closed at $81.70; October 7, 2002 QQQ closed at $20.16)
.
* #26) November 8, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "As we continue the process of monitoring our stock market timing indicators, we recommend retaining stock market cash reserves until our model returns to bullish territory. We also recommend holding existing stock market positions at current levels, along with holdings of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; November 8, 2002 QQQQ closed at $25.07)
.
* #27) December 5, 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Marketimer recommends retaining existing equity market holdings at this time. This includes existing positions in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; December 5, 2002 QQQQ closed at $26.20)
.
* #28) January 9, 2003, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We also recommend holding existing positions at the current levels, along with holdings of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; January 9, 2003, QQQ closed at $26.70)
.
* #29) February 7, 2003, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We also suggest holding existing positions in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, which have recently shown a measure of resilience relative to the broad market indexes. We expect the Nasdaq indexes to post gains well in excess of the broad market indexes during the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, QQQ closed at $81.70; February 7, 2003, QQQ closed at $23.81; November 27, 2006, $43.68)
.
* #30) March 7, 2003 (four days before Brinker's "buy" signal) Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "For subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding for a significant recovery in the shares in the next cyclical bull market." (October 15, 2000, a few days after Brinker's "Act Immediately" Bulletin, QQQ closed at $81.70; March 7, 2003--after 30 months of "guidance" to "hold", QQQ closed at $24.54)
.
That was the final time that Marketimer ever mentioned "those holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares" and the trades were never closed.
Beginning in the April, 2003 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker added RYOCX (proxy for QQQQ) to all of his model portfolios at the closing price on March 11, 2003 -- down over 70% since his "Act Immediately Bulletin." That was a very effective way to forever cover up his most costly-to-subscribers stock market-timing blunder of all time.
Anyone who wants a photocopy of anything I have quoted can write an email and I will send it to you.
12 comments:
POOR WRONG WAY BOB
He has no clue about the stock market, or the QQQ when he was bragging about being such a GENIUS that can call counter trend rallies.
Now the other one is just as confused about bonds.........maybe more so since he buys stocks in a bond fund DUH DUH DUH.
Like father.................like son...............and NOONE can make this crap up.
No wonder Prescott had to work longer.......
Now............I give the sycophant apologist 32 seconds to show up and start the personal destruction posts that will just break my tiny heart.............(((ROAR))).
Mr. Pig,
You might want to save your sympathy for the poor suckers who had their retirements delayed because they trusted Bob Brinker to time the market.
This man was in the Land of Critical Mass and got evicted:
Author: retiredinprescot
Discussion: Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
Date: January 26, 2006 7:47 AM
Subject: "In response to CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ON BOB posted by Wright100:
Wright100,
I am the person that Peter Brimelow was talking about in his CBS Marketwatch column" I retired early in the first half of 2000. I had been following [Brinker's] advice based on his excellent track record and comments he made during a personal appearance in Rochester NY in the late 1990s."
Just so it is crystal clear, I will tell all of you that after Bob's lecture and infomercial in Rochester, NY he took questions from the audience and then stayed to talk "one on one" with some of us about retirement. BOB told me very clearly that many many retirees used his newsletter as the basis for their retirement investing. Thus, when I subscribed and got the "invest immediately" bulletin, I naturally followed the advice I WAS PAYING FOR.
Am I still pissed? YOU BETCHA. My problem with Bob ISN'T the fact that he made a poor recommendation, it is the fact that he left ALL OF US HANGING month after month after month as the QQQs dropped and dropped. He clearly never had an exit stategy and he obviously didn't care about all of his subscribers who followed him over the cliff.
His biggest objective was to bury the call. I tried for months to get in touch with Bob for some explanation of what to do but his staff responded by CANCELING MY NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTION.
This is how your wonderful Bob Brinker treats people!
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
-- posted by honeyoneohone
(The link above is not longer in existence.)
Mr. Pig....Here's another poor sucker who deserves our sympathy. In 2001, he had hopes for getting his money back in 2010, but that didn't happen. MOF, it isn't likely to happen even in 2012!!
April, 2001:
In response to message posted by ectopia:
I just received my Market Slimer. The "Brilliant One" doesn't even mention the Qube "trade" until the middle of page two.
He spends the first page and a half reviewing his January 2000 Bear market call and then stating his belief that the Market internals are improving. He states that if they
keep heading in the same direction the "model" could signal a long term buy sometime this spring.
That's right folks, just as Will predicted the QQQ "trade" is now an investment in which we will "be amply rewarded if we show patience." Yeah, like about sometime in 2010.
Remember all that garbage he was spewing about "capital preservation" being preeminent all last year prior to his CTR call?
Why in God's name didn't he take his own advice??? Does he realize how his hubris and arrogance has cost so much financial and emotional pain?
Mr. Brinker, sir, you are one world-class unprincipled jerk. You have no conscience because if you had even a trace of one, you'd slink away never to be heard from again. We've been the prey of one of the
greatest shark attacks of all times.
What a piece of work you are!
-- posted by MichaelJohn64
Here's another note from my Suite 101 files from 2001:
515. Apr 7, 2001 2:00 PM
ectopia - Class action against BB
I really think we should organize a class action law suit against the SOB for misrepresentation and fraud. I think the suit would be valid because he censored contrary posts from his Web discussion, causing the unsuspecting viewer to believe that his record and tactics were widely supported.
Similarly, he culls the talk show participants and misleads the listening public into believing that his record, views, etc. are widely supported. I know this has been brought up here before; most have said that we wouldn't get anywhere with this sort of thing but I don't understand why this couldn't be a valid case."
-- posted by ectopia
The "web discussion" that "ectopia" is referring to is the old Bob Brinker message boards that were shut down shortly after the QQQ blunder.
A long-time member of the Bob Brinker Fan Club, who was posting on Suite 101 as Skeptic101 challenged "RetiredinPrescot" about having lost his retirement because of Bob Brinker's QQQ blunder. Here is "Retired's" response:
In response to Bob Brinker posted by skeptic101: Skeptic101 said "I thought your retirement was ruined in Oct. 2000??????".
For those who don't follow my life as closely as Skeptic101 apparantly does, he is referring to the several hundred thousand dollar loss we suffered by following Bob Brinkers ill fated QQQ call shortly after we retired in 2000.
Well, Skeptic101, the answer is that we went back to work part time for 5 yrs (consulting)and drastically cut our budget while saving and investing to make back the defecit.
NOW we are fully retired again and my comments about spending 4% inflation adjusted per year stand... So, YES, my original retirement plans and budget were ruined by Brinker but after 7 years we have recovered on our own. Now go question someone elses veracity...:) "
"» retiredinprescot -
I have not listened to a thing BB has said for over a decade. The man has no integrity. Period.
Back in 2000-2001 when his investment calls were not going his way he took down the bulletin boards on his website because his subscribers were voicing displeasure.
Rather than address their concerns the guy hid. That is inexcusable and I have not given a rats a$$ about the guy ever since. I'm still amazed this board even gets updates.
alci
Alci....You are absolutely correct. That is indeed why the TWO Bob Brinker's took down their message boards.
First they tried banishing anyone who asked questions they didn't want answered, then they forbid the posting of links or emails.
Then they tried charging to post and read the message boards. No doubt thinking that only Bob Brinker fans would pay to post.
But that didn't work out because many who were fans were upset about the way the QQQ trade went.
So they finally closed them down completely.
The reason that I maintain this blog is to offer a place where Moneytalk listeners can get the WHOLE truth that Bob Brinker does not allow on the show.
He is still trolling for shark-bait for himself (and his son) on the National airwaves, I'm still here trying to warn people.
Alci and all,
If you want to know what the old Bob Brinker message boards looked like, here is a link to one of them from the Wayback Machine:
Bob Birnker's Land of Critical Mass
Ms Honey quipped:
If you want to know what the old Bob Brinker message boards looked like,
Do you have a link to what it looked like BEFORE the webmaster was hired (out of sympathy) and before the ID deletions?
That webmaster was a pathetic POS and had NO CLUE about what he was doing.
Can you imagine if the scab pretended to run a newsletter and was able to suck people into thinking he could predict the BOND market that was composed of picking dopey stock funds by Vanguard?
Who would ever believe such sh*t............they would think that I was TOTALLY outta my mind.
Ya think this post would last at that site for over 30 seconds?
Honeybee;
Thanks for the excellent analysis of Brinker's disastrous QQQ call and his subsequent cover-up. The man has lost all credibility and his famous on-air comment that I recall "my model is not designed to forecast a global melt down" he made in the fall of 2007 verify that his quote "market timing" ability has been revealed to be a farce.
Thanks for your wonderful column; keep up the good work!!
Don G
Thank you for the trip down memory lane. I sold off the last of the disasterous QQQ trade this week as part of 2011 tax loss selling. It brings back memories. Bad ones. I never faulted Brinker for being wrong, but the coverup was unconscionable.
LOL! After reading this thorough and detailed analysis of Bob's trade, it sure seems clear that Bob's strategy can be summed up simply as "buy, hold, and pray". It is over 12 years since he bought QQQ, and QQQ still isn't back to where he got in. Great market timing skills! ;-)
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