Bob Brinker has recommended Vanguard International Growth Fund since January, 2000 (that's as far back as I can check). The fund is very volatile and has taken several round-trip roller coaster rides. The 52-week closing high was $21.17 (April 29, 2011), and the closing low was $15.24 (October 3, 2011). Looks like the U.S. market outperformed by a mile this year, and the numbers look even worse longer term:
Brinker added Vanguard FTSE All-World Fund to the model portfolios in January 2010. He sold 10% of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) to add the 10% weighting of the All-World Fund in all three model portfolios (including the conservative balanced portfolio). Did that improve performance? It doesn't look like it right now:
There are many opinions about the wisdom of having a portion of your investment portfolio in international/world securities. Many advocate it, like Bob Brinker does. Perhaps it has more to do with where you invest outside of the U.S. than with if you invest outside the U.S.
11 comments:
It's easy to go back an knock an investment that underperformed especially if you do it way AFTER the fact.
Please tell us what you WOULD have done and what you NOW propose going forward.
More and more your blog seems to be posting ANYTHING to take a crack at Brinker. No matter how old or how small.
talemoma
Hi talemoma,
It is NOT after the fact. It is NOT old and it is NOT small (especially if you happen to have bought those funds on Bob Brinker's advice.
As I said, those two funds are still part of all three of Brinker's model portfolios. The International Fund has been down as much as 40% this year (Thanks to Michael for calling it to my attention.)
As for your complaint that this blog is about taking a "crack" at Brinker: This blog is about reporting the facts about Brinker's investment and market-timing advice.
As long as he is on national radio claiming to be "America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor," this blog will post the truth about his "trustworthiness."
BTW: You want to know what I would have done and what I propose? Thanks for asking. Perhaps I should start a market-timing investment letter of my own. Maybe I could get into the top income tax bracket like Brinker.
I'm very careful about buying anything outside of the United States, especially right now. I believe money can be made, but it can be lost in a flash too.
The US equity market in terms of
capitalization is less than the rest of the world. From an asset allocation standpoint, it makes sense to participate in developed and emerging markets outside the US. I do it via ETFs.
-- Frankj
FrankJ,
Thank you for your constructive comments.
Would you like to share with us which ETFs you use?
Frankj --
I have EFA: iShares MSCI EAFE Index. (Europe, Australasia-Far East )
EMB -- an emerging market bond ETF. iShares also.
VWO Vanguard's Emerging Market Vipers equity fund.
There is also EFV, an iShares MSCI EAFE Value Indx fund, I don't own it but someone recommended it to me.
A number of Vanguard's mutual funds are available in ETF form. The expense ratios are a little bit higher, but still generally less than other outfits that offer ETFs.
The ETF world seems to has simplified retail investing a lot in my opinion. I like the real-time aspect of buying/selling although I am not a trader.
moma's boy asks:
Please tell us what you WOULD have done and what you NOW propose going forward.
Will you be sending your $185 by cash, credit card, or food stamps?
As soon as your INVESTMENT is received, we will supply your answer. HTH
Anonymous complained......
It's easy to go back an knock an investment that underperformed especially if you do it way AFTER the fact.
Please tell us what you WOULD have done and what you NOW propose going forward.
More and more your Blog seems to be posting ANYTHING to take a crack at Brinker. No matter how old or how small.
talemoma
October 29, 2011 6:30 AM
OK fair enough question. In May 2009 Bob Brinker gave two stock picks in that months marketimer. They were Suncor (SU) and Gold (GLD). 1 May 2009 price SU $27.30 GLD $86,95. Friday 29 Oct 11 close SU $33.31 GLD $169.62. SU +22% GLD +85%.
A stock picking contest was held here at the Blog to see how folks would do compared to the man who proclaims himself Americas most trusted financial advisor.
Subject: Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz Archive: Can You Beat Bob Brinker's Last Two Stock Picks?
May 16, 2009 8:11 AM
Honeybee said...
My picks are DLTR and NFLX.
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2.blogspot.com/2009/05/please-note-blog-readers-stock-picks.html
1 May 09 NFLX $44.48 and DLTR $41.53. Friday 29 Oct 11 close NFLX $84.14 and DLTR $78.87. NFLX +89% DLTR +90%.
The 52 weeks highs on the four picks were SU $48 GLD $186 NFLX $304 and DLTR $ 82. You can see that Honey's two picks have significantly outperformed Bob Brinkers in this optional trade.
I would also like to congratulate Honey in winning the Guru of the month award at Silicone Investor.
Interesting comments and I can identify with all.Honeybee is correct in her thinking about Bob as he has to be kept in line and with her picks maybe she should start her own investment letter like that weiner guy who tells you which vanguard funds to pick... Just a thought..
Honeybee,
Charles Schwab was with Bob Brinker on MoneyTalk
the weekend immediately following 9/11/01. As I
recall, he spent about 1/2 hour on the show reassuring
people that the US would recover, not to panic...etc.
I have not heard Brinker since 2002. However, he did
great by me and I love the guy. At the time, I did
subscribe to his newsletter, but was too lazy to follow
his qqq advice in a timely manner, by the time I was
ready to act...well you know what happened.
So I do not have a single complaint against him. I never
lost a dime.
Anonymous,
Thank you for the information about Charles Schwab's guest appearance on Moneytalk.
It would be nice if you would have signed your post with any handle of your choice.
I am going to copy your post to the latest Summary Comments so no one will miss them.
Honeybee,
Sorry I failed to sign before, in my comment about
Charles Schwab.
Carl R.
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