December 8, 2012....Bob Brinker's views on stock market secular and cyclical trends has not changed as of last week. He is sticking to his belief that there is an ongoing "long-in-the-tooth" cyclical bull market that began in 2009 inside a secular bear market that began in year-2000, (Here is a complete history of Bob Brinker's market-trends calls.)
At this time, Brinker has not raised any cash, but as he said recently on Red Eye Radio, he is "watching it closely." His biggest concern is that there was no 10% "health-restoring correction" in 2012 like there was in 2010 and 2011. This could possibly indicate another severe cyclical bear market is in the cards.
Regarding the stock market going forward, Brinker has told listeners to watch for "economic malaise," and to be aware that the Federal Reserve has largely exhausted its monetary arsenal (see my summary from last Sunday). During the first nine months of this year, the economy grew at a sluggish annual 2%. Brinker clearly believes that the government should use more stimulus -- otherwise, the economy and the stock market will suffer.
Brinker totally missed the 2008-2009 megabear market (which he now considers a cyclical bear), and he remained fully invested. Fortunately for his subscribers/followers, Marketimer model portfolios have finally regained all of their losses and are now a little higher than they were at the October 2007 stock market high.
Brinker is using fear in Marketimer now, and holding out the carrot for all those wabbits who think he will get them out of the market before the next major bear. Brinker's actual record at calling bear markets is abysmal. The one time he went to all cash (see his asset allocation history back to 1987), it was a costly mistake. He knows that and will be very cautious about ever doing it again.
If Brinker does raise cash in the future, that will mean he expects a more than 20% correction because he has 10-20% corrections for breakfast. He's ridden down several 19+ corrections which he doesn't call bear markets because he insists corrections have to exceed 20% to be an "official bear market." IMO, that is just plain silly.
As of the December Marketimer, Brinker has not changed his S&P 500 Index "upper-1400s to lower-1500s" target range.
8 comments:
Entitlement by definition is a right to benefits specified especially by law or contract.
Most senior citizens end up receiving way more in Social Security and Medicare benefits than they paid into the system during their working years.
And with all the boomers coming up - - we are screwed.
Yep, blame on the people who have paid in all their working lives. That's the ticket...
KSFO has their 7 day archive "disabled until further notice" Now I can't listen to BB except in realtime. :-(
Typo correct. Thanks Mr. Pig...
Why our government cannot balance the budget in black and white:
United States Budget Dilemma
Brinker keeps saying he is watching the market "very closely". He seems to be hinting that he could make a change at any time. I don't think he will.
First, anyone who sells a marketiming newsletter should ALWAYS be watching the market very closely. But right now there is no reason for him to change. We are in a slow growth economy with low inflation and low interest rates.
We have the threat of going over the fiscal cliff, but Brinker does not have a "fiscal cliff" component in his timing model. He has already proven in '07-'08 that he cannot predict a recession.
In 2013 I see more of the same. Slow growth,low inflation and low interest rates. The stock market valuation seems reasonable,so Brinker will continue to stay fully invested in my view.
Da mighty Brink already told you how he will handle the fiscal cliff. If we go off it and the markets tank he will just declare it another extraneous event like he did in 07-08.
Then he will take his comments from the Red-eye show and have shills call in who will reference that as his great call where they got their money out of the stockmarket and simply ignore what he really did. All of a sudden keeping his eye on the market will morph into a sell signal. And the gullible will subscribe time and again.
tfb
Jim, IMHO you are 100% correct.
Mike
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