STOCK MARKET... The last time that Brinker made any comments about current stock market activity was in September. But....
At various times in the program today, Brinker made these comments in answer to questions: "2012 has been a great year and we are very thankful to the investment gods for the excellent returns this year.....The stock market is very, very sensitive to what is going on in the sentiment ring. We've seen that from the market in terms of the fiscal cliff. Every utterance coming out has resulted in a swing one way or the other in the stock market....And also the stock market is fully aware at this point that we are dealing with a dysfunctional government."
From Marketwatch: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -1.21% fell 158.20 points, or 1.2%, to 12,938.11, leaving it off 1.9% from the week-ago close. The S&P 500 index SPX -1.10% declined 15.67 points, or 1.1%, to 1,402.43, also down 1.9% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.86% shed 25.59 points, or 0.9%, to 2,960.31, with the index tallying a 2% weekly decline.(From September 23, 2012 Moneytalk) STOCK MARKET SELL-OFF AHEAD? Curt in San Rafael said: "If President Obama gets re-elected in November, and the stock significantly increasing over the years, do you see a sell-off in the month of December?" Brinker replied: "Well, we are going to have to wait until we get further down the line to answer that question. I certainly don't have forecast changes that I would make months in advance. In other words, I operate in real time so that whenever things change, they change. Doesn't matter who the president is, I can tell you that. The biggest mistake that I have seen investors make is to allow politics to interfere with their investment decisions."
Honey EC: Brinker's Marketimer model portfolios are still fully invested. He is recommending "buy on weakness" for new stock market money. My guess is that if this fiscal cliff thing is not settled and the market tanks, Brinker will call it an "exogenous event" that his Timing Model© had no way to detect. Never mind that he has been talking about it for months now. Of course, he is on record saying he thought it would be resolved "after the election" -- or at least before the end of the year.
FDIC GO BACK TO $100K? Caller Jamie from Santa Clara asked Brinker if he thought the FDIC insurance would revert back to the former $100,000 or stay at the current $250,000. Brinker replied that he thought it would stay at $250,000.
FISCAL CLIFF....This was the main topic of the day for Brinker and most callers. Brinker spent a great deal of time reporting the latest news that is on all the major TV and radio channels.
ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX....Without a patch/fix "it will pick up about 26 to 28 million addition taxpayers in 2013."
MAJOR CUTS IN MEDICARE PAYMENT TO DOCTORS...."Scheduled to drop 26 1/2% in January which means some doctors will no longer take Medicare patients. That's the way it works."
MILK CLIFF: Brinker said: "This has to do with a forecast of a spike in dairy prices due to the absence of a farm bill. Congress has failed to renew farm programs, so there is an underlying 1949 law that they would go back to -- can you believe we run the country this way?....That law forces the federal government to buy up American milk at inflated prices. And the prices are expected to double on a quart of milk because....you are going to have this tremendous government demand by law and it is going to dry up the supply of milk....and create a scarcity."
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS ENDING...."About 2,100,000 unemployment insurance beneficiaries will lose their benefits starting on Tuesday unless that's resolved."
AUTOMATIC SEQUESTRATION CUTS....Includes: "Big hit to the military budget. Defense would take a 12% hit next year."
Honey EC: November 11th, Brinker went on the record as saying that he thought Washington would make a deal and these cuts would not take place. Brinker said: "They have these across the board cuts in defense spending, in discretionary spending...that are scheduled to go into affect next year. My expectation is that we will see some negotiation, horse trading....on these cuts and some kind of deal handed out."
CHAINED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX....This was called for by Mitch McConnell. Brinker said: "The chained Consumer Price Index reduces the payments for inflation by about 1/2 of 1%. ...It may not sound like a lot, but when you apply it to entitlements, it is a tremendous amount of money, billions and billions over time."
PAYROLL TAX CUT ENDS.....Brinker said: "And there's one more item that we should note which appears to be a slam dunk at this hour. And that is, everybody in the country is going to take a 2% pay cut on Tuesday because the tax holiday for the employee portion of the payroll tax si going to expire Monday night. And at this hour, there is no effort to extend that that is surfacing."
IN EDIT, Honey EC: This morning, I heard that this tax break that targets wage-earners only, will end regardless of what happens with the fiscal cliff.
LARGEST TAX INCREASE OF ALL TIME.....Brinker said: "So here we are less than 32 hours from the expiration of the current law. We don't know what the new tax law will be, but if nothing is done, then we do know what the new tax law will be until they change it -- which they will in January. The new tax law will be higher brackets across the board. A roughly 500 billion tax increase. The biggest tax increase of all time."
Honey EC: Right now, it looks like Brinker misjudged this whole fiscal cliff fiasco. Here is what Brinker said on November 11th: "Let me tell you what I don't think is going to happen. I don't think you're going to see this 300 billion dollar income tax increase across all brackets....This is the biggest single piece of the fiscal cliff. I don't see it happening, but if it does happen, I think they'll roll it back and make it retroactive."
TREASURY DEFAULT WOULD BE TREASON....Brinker said: "I don't think anybody believes that the Treasury would default on its obligation.....If you are a politician and you take action to default on the Treasury sovereign debt, then basically, you are guilty of an act of treason. So it's very dangerous territory to go into.....What would happen if you had a Treasury default. You would have a depression. And it would probably be worse than the depression in the 1930's, so that would result in chaos....If you don't believe the Treasury actually will default, it's unlikely that you would make a (bond) transaction based on that."
UNITED STATES IS FISCAL LAUGHINGSTOCK OF THE WORLD....Brinker did a lot of ranting about what is going on in Washington today. Brinker said: "We are the fiscal laughingstock of the world right now."
Jeffchristie's Final Exam Question:
Bob Brinker told a caller that president Obama was:
A) A flying squirrel
B) A jackass
C) A lame duck
D) A blood sucking leach
Answer:
Brinker's guest was Carol Loomis. She has been a Warren Buffett fan club since 1966: Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything, 1966-2012: A Fortune Magazine Book
San Francisco, Ca. KSFO 560: 1-4pm (KSFO archives Moneytalk Free on Demand for seven days after broadcast. You can download and listen on the go.)
24 comments:
How do you buy on weakness if your fully invested
I'm getting really nervous. Bob Brinker was on TWO consecutive Holiday weekends (Christmas and New Years). Perhaps he was following the Mayan Calendar and has lost track of things after he went past the end of the calendar.
Bob Brinker told a caller that president Obama was:
A) A flying squirrel
B) A jackass
C) A lame duck
D) A blood sucking leach
E) Ni_ _ _ _ _
tfb
Have not heard or read one word if members of congress will have to pay higher taxes [most of them are multi-millionaires] and what about the so-called 47% that don't pay federal taxes, what will they pay ?
Junk bonds best performer for 2012:
Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond
2012 Junk Bonds 18.7% Investment Grade Bonds 11% S&P 500 14% Gold 6.7% Treasuries 4.4% Euro 1.6% Dollar -0.85% Oil -6.4% #Bloomberg
What a way to end a good year! If the Dow closes lower, it will end the year on its longest losing streak ever at 6 trading days.
Anonymous who asked: "How do you buy on weakness if your fully invested"
That is the $64 question. The one time that Bob Brinker offered any kind of explanation for that, he claimed that he made timing calls while fully invested for "new money."
It really is hilarious when you consider all the "buying opportunities" he has touted over the past 13 years while braggging about being fully invested during stock market good times -- and being silent during bad times.
Although I'm fully aware of (now tired expression) "the fiscal cliff." However,Brinker lets people spout off about what they think the politicians should or would do.
What has happened to discussions about funds, asset allocations, investment strategies? Brinker's program used to be informative.
do you have a quick stat of how many sundays had a guest host? i want to guess about 10...
To Doug, the "Fecal" Cliff, and why Bobby rarely talks finances:
Our entire country/culture has become politicized in recent decades. A lot of it, IMO, has to do with political cable shows; all of them have an interest in the never-ending promotion of government because their careers depend on it.
Check out the nightly network news: usually you can figure on at least the entire first half will center around politics/government. I was so happy when we had the Gulf Oil Spill in early 2010 -- it bumped politics off the opening segment for quite a while (until Obama threatened to extort $20 billion from BP.) This really opened my eyes: I no longer watch network news.
Same goes for "news" magazines. Some years ago I got fed up with Newsweek because of all the politics in it. I counted the pages of stories and about 3/4 of them were about politics/government.
I would like to end the old year on a high note.
Happy New Year to all, Xcept anon the imp.
Bob Brinker is a charlatan, past his prime, and should have realized it 10 years ago, as everybody else has.
The other Bob Brinker is also a charlatan liberal do-nothing-know-nothing big mouth, without any accomplishments to his name. At least the old man made millions upon millions.
slurp.............slurp...........junior.............whatta LOSER you are, and your (sic) very VERY welcome.
Anonymous asked: "do you have a quick stat of how many sundays had a guest host? i want to guess about 10..."
Yep, I've kept a file ever since he dropped to one day a week in 2010.
Here is the list from 2012:
* January 8, 2012: Lynn Jimenez
* February 5, 2012, Super Bowl Sunday: Third hour rerun calls
* February 12, 2012: Lynn Jimenez
* March 11, 2012: Lynn Jimenez
* May 6, 2012: Bob Brinker 1 ½ hours re-run, arrived for last 1 ½ hours
* May 27, 2012: Lynn Jimenez
* June 10, 2012: Neale Godfrey
* July 8, 2012: Neale Godfrey
* August 12, 2012: Neale Godfrey
* October 21, 2012: Neale Godfrey
* November 25, 2012: Lynn Jimenez
Doug asked: "What has happened to discussions about funds, asset allocations, investment strategies? Brinker's program used to be informative."
I agree Doug....and have wondered the same thing.
Based on appearances, as well as his regular touting his newsletter, I'd say that he is deliberately refraining from discussing his market view in hopes that people will be willing to pay for what he used to give for free as part of his national radio program.
Remember, he's working for his "young sprouts" now. I'm referring to his middle-aged, techie son who now sells a "fixed income" newsletter of his own.
I know for a fact that at least 99% of callers who mention the "fixed income" letter believe that the Bob Brinker that sells it is the same person who sells Marketimer.
I also know for a fact that 99% of the time, Brinker does not correct that misconception when a caller voices it on the air.
So you tell me who is scamming who...
Good question by Doug. Have to agree with HB, too much discussion of the market could come into conflict with the newsletter.
Happy New Year, everyone.
--Frankj
Doug is exactly right. Brinker is not very informative anymore. He starts off each program by saying he teaches people "to be their own personal financial manager". But he teaches very little about personal finance lately, and instead just uses the program to rant about the gridlock in Washington and promote his newsletter.
I can see perhaps why he doesn't mention the market, but he could still be informative. He used to talk about things like load vs.no-load funds, term vs. whole life insurance, traditional vs. Roth IRA's and he used to frequently warn listeners of "Shark Attacks".
Perhaps he has become bored with those questions over the years. He probably feels he has answered all those questions already, but there are always newer listeners who could benefit.
In the past when Brinker made an important point, he would say it would be on the "Moneytalk Final Exam". It's been so long since he mentioned those things that I'm starting to forget the answers.
This is such a great piece of writing from a Yahoo message board that I follow, I wanted to share it with you all.
My mathematician friends will especially enjoy it:
by reits_r_us . Jan 1, 2013 1:35 PM
Happy New Year to everyone!! This last year has been a tough one for many and others not so tough. To the latter Congrats!! That goes to Rim and Ray especially as Rim made his 169% and Ray made his 300k+ profit(probably 2%..;-)).
To those, like myself, who made a profit, although much smaller, Congrats again!! To the former, who suffered losses, it is a New Year with lessons learned and hopefully much success ahead in 2013. I have to admit, I am a numbers guy and have always disdained the number "13". Its not the superstitious thing about "13", it is a visceral distaste for prime numbers. I love even numbers and not so much odd, but I hate prime numbers.
You know, those numbers which are divisible by only themselves and one. Hey, I don't care for people like that either, now that I think about it. You know, the ones who are always about themselves being number one.
Those numbers equal 2,3,5,7,11.13.17,19,23,29,31,37,41,43,47,53,59,61,67,71,73,79, 83,89,97,101. Correct me if I missed any, but I think that's it for the age group(discussions on 1 being or not being prime excluded...sorry...another thread). I can spot a prime number just by the taste of it, very nasty and sour, like cilantro(some love it, others hate it...must be genetic). If you are older than that, then God Bless You!! The 10's group with only one prime number are the 90's. By that time you need a break!!
I had a Prime birthday recently. It will be 6 more years, if I make it, until another prime birthday, thank God!!
Anyways, 13 is a prime number and we are here. Yayy! We're not dead, and that is enough to celebrate without all the other cool stuff we can celebrate, like family, health, fame and fortune. Yes, getting back to the fortune part. We should, IMO, with the eccentricities in Congress circling zero, arrive at a market place tomorrow of irrational exuberance. The spin will be that Happy Days with the Fonz, are here again! 300+ move in the DOW and the mReits will sail with them.
Should last all week. Those betting the other way...sorry. I believe you will get your chance but not BE by Jan OPEX(18th). I think there will too much momentum for the sailors who have been at sea. They've been pent up for awhile now and the ship has come into port. Look at those smiling faces of Harry the Reed and Nancy and Barrrrackk. A sinister smirk is even on the #$%$'s face. For Pete's sake, they are giving us the "ALL CLEAR". We can come out of hiding now they're saying.
All the gazillions of dollars folks like myself have in cash are now safe to throw out on the table. The Roulette Wheel is hot and I pick black, even though I did not vote that way. Congrats to all Longs who held in there as we should see 30+ by Friday. Wow BATESAT in a week.
This will be the "rush" on exuberance and then the wave will recede. Alas, like the wave moving AGNC's ship to higher moorings the wave must abate, and lower water marks made. That will be a great opportunity to buy as Earnings is approached.
Another challenging year?? Perhaps. But to those savvy(lucky?) enough to know what "Red skies in Morning, Sailor's Warning, Red Skies at Night, Sailor's Delight" means, are likely to time the weather right. I just jettisoned 20% of my WMC short Puts by shipping them to July as volatility was on the roof and the deal was too sweet. I tried to throw the whole crew overboard, but the Quartermaster would only allow 20%.
I wish all shipmates a very prosperous and Happy New Year. Lets make some money. We have a great chance in 2013, because, as we all know, 2013 is NOT prime...;-)
DocReits
Congratulations....for all those who went in the market at Brinker's recommendation in 2008 at 1450...IF the market holds and you sell ('casue Da Brink ain't about to make a sell call yet) you might just break even today...
Well you will still be out the price of any subscriptions to market holder.
Da Brink - awesome ain't he?
tfb
Here is a good summary of the tax laws that were signed by the "dysfunctional" congress yesterday. Looks to me like the wealth-distributors won big time:
January 2, 2013
(MarketWatch)—The majority of taxpayers can celebrate the provisions of the fiscal-cliff bill passed by Congress on Tuesday, at least with regard to tax law: the continuation of the income-tax rates they’ve enjoyed for a decade, certainty with regard to the alternative minimum tax, and the extension of a number of popular tax breaks.
The bad news: Congress is heading for a showdown over the government spending limit, and the fiscal-cliff deal approved by the Senate does little to address that problem. The federal government hit its borrowing limit on New Year’s Eve. The Treasury Department can finagle its borrowing and spending so that it stays under the cap for about two more months. But any drawn-out fight in Congress over raising the debt ceiling bodes ill for the economy.
There’s some bad news in the fiscal-cliff bill from a tax perspective, too: The payroll tax cut is gone, meaning smaller paychecks in 2013. That tax break, in effect in 2011 and 2012, reduced the Social Security tax rate workers pay to 4.2%. The resumption of the regular 6.2% rate means about $1,000 less in pay this year for people making $50,000.
And, wealthy taxpayers may rue the steeper income-tax and capital-gains and dividend rates they face, plus a reduction in their ability to claim deductions and credits.
But a slew of expiring tax breaks—including a child tax credit worth up to $1,000 and the American Opportunity tax credit, worth as much as $2,500 for qualified college expenses—will be available for five more years once President Barack Obama signs the bill into law, as expected.
Plus, unemployed workers who receive emergency federal unemployment benefits will continue to get their checks. If Congress hadn’t reached a fiscal-cliff deal, those benefits would have ended this month.
And there’s the relief of certainty regarding the alternative minimum tax: The bill offers up a permanent, inflation-adjusted exemption amount for this parallel tax system ($78,750 for married filing jointly filers and $50,600 for single filers for the 2012 tax year).
Read more HERE
There’s some bad news in the fiscal-cliff bill from a tax perspective, too: The payroll tax cut is gone, meaning smaller paychecks in 2013.
No this is good news. It was irresponsible to cut the funding of Social Security. It does need reform, but cutting the funding was totally irresponsible.
But a slew of expiring tax breaks—including a child tax credit worth up to $1,000 and the American Opportunity tax credit, worth as much as $2,500 for qualified college expenses—will be available for five more years once President Barack Obama signs the bill into law, as expected.
This is unfortunate. Once again all we are doing is subsidizing the wrong activities. We need to discourage reproduction and higher education should be reserved for those with academic promise. We don't need more people with masters in history and women's study working at McDonalds.
Plus, unemployed workers who receive emergency federal unemployment benefits will continue to get their checks. If Congress hadn’t reached a fiscal-cliff deal, those benefits would have ended this month
Unemployment insurance is suppose to be at the state level and not a national issue. If it was not made a national issue you might see people actually moving to where there was opportunity. Once again the Government is simply interfering with market corrections and allocations in the labor pool.
And there’s the relief of certainty regarding the alternative minimum tax: The bill offers up a permanent, inflation-adjusted exemption amount for this parallel tax system ($78,750 for married filing jointly filers and $50,600 for single filers for the 2012 tax year).
Oh goody, so those who have a bunch of children that we have to pay to educate can once again escape paying taxes, so the rest of us get to subsidize their reproductive tendencies. Nice job.
And, wealthy taxpayers may rue the steeper income-tax and capital-gains and dividend rates they face, plus a reduction in their ability to claim deductions and credits.
Yep, get back at those who plan ahead and save.
tfb
TFB said: "Congratulations....for all those who went in the market at Brinker's recommendation in 2008 at 1450...IF the market holds and you sell ('casue Da Brink ain't about to make a sell call yet) you might just break even today..."
Well you will still be out the price of any subscriptions to market holder.
TFB,
Outstanding point! Here is what Brinker said just before the market was hit by the worst bear since the Great Depression -- losing about 57%!!!
January 2008 Bob Brinker's Marketimer with S&P 500 @ 1468.36
“In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s range in the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new purchases. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested as we enter 2008."
TFB hit on a couple of the social engineering aspects of the tax code, the child tax credit, and the American Opportunity Credit.
The AOC is a particulary juicy credit in that it is partially refundable. Basically, if you spend $4000 or more on tuition for a 4 yr. degree program, the maximum credit is $2500.
$1500 of that can be used to reduce your calculated tax -- dollar for dollar. The unused $1000 drops down to the bottom of page 2 of the 1040, and is treated the same as withholding, IOW, all of it is potentially refundable!
-- Frankj
I am a bit worried about Brinker's reasoning skills lately.
He has always maintained that a recession is occurring only when conditions meet the actual defintion. That is when two consecutive quarters with no or negative economic growth occur.
As you recall he strongly chastised callers who suggested otherwise. He said (paraphrasing) one is entitled to their own opinions but NOT to their own facts. I agree with him on this.
Now it seems that he is completely ok with his own invented definition or facts when he sees fit.
Anyone else bristle when he calls Obama a "lame duck" because he can't run for President again?
In actuality, a lame duck is not present until one's successor is elected. The lame duck period is from that election result to the end of the present office holder's term.
It is NOT an entire term when one simply can't run again for the same office.
What is Brinker smoking in this case?
"Bristling Anonymous,
Yes, I did wonder what he was smoking when I heard him call Obama a "lame duck."
A lame duck is someone, like you said, who not only can't run again, but who is virtually powerless.
Obama is certainly not powerless. As a matter of fact, in all the ways that count, he now has ultimate power and is willing to use it.
Are you aware that on the subject of disarming the United States nuclear arsenal, he told the Russian's to "wait until after the election because I will have more flexibility."
To anonymous,
If you want to slam the United States, you are going to have to man up and sign your posts.
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