Wednesday, February 29, 2012

February 29, 2012, Bob Brinker's Latest Fixed Income and Bond Advice

February 29, 2012....Bob Brinker's up-to-the-minute advice on fixed-income bonds is cautionary. He recommends staying short term on bond funds and Treasurys.  Bob said: "I think there is the risk down the road of normalization of interest rates...The question is when......If you see normalization of interest rates, then you are going to see a decline in bond funds....It can be completely avoided by putting together a ladder of fully insured FDIC certificates of deposit."


INFLATION PROTECTED BONDS: Bob does not recommend TIPS now and has sold all of the Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund (VIPSX) from his Marketimer portfolios. If inflation picks up, he expects the net-asset-values to drop. Moneytalk, February 19th, Bob said: "I don't use them....My personal opinion is that the base rate that is currently being offered on Treasury Inflation Protected is insufficient to justify using them."

INTERMEDIATE TAX-EXEMPT (Vanguard Intermediate Tax-exempt fund). Moneytalk, November 2011, Bob said: "I think the reason I would not be buying that fund is because the level of interest rates is near historical lows...The Fed is committed to keeping them  (rates) down as long as the economy is slow, but the reality is, rates are really low." 

TREASURYS: Bob said:  "I think if you're going to be invested in Treasurys at this juncture, you have to have a hold-to-maturity approach....If you go out and buy a Treasury today at these historically low yields....and if you were to see higher yields you would see a reduction in the value of the principal that you paid for the Treasury....I think you do run the risk of seeing these securities go under water sometime in the next ten years." Last Sunday, Brinker reiterated that investing in laddered FDIC guaranteed Certificates of Deposit is the best way to avoid interest rate risk altogether. 

HIGH YIELDING FOREIGN BONDS:  Last week, Bob cautioned that there is currency risk when the money is brought back into the country -- for those who live in the United States and spend dollars.

GINNIE MAE BONDS:   On the air, Bob always sounds enthusiastic about the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund (VFIIX), but in reality, he has lowered his Marketimer model portfolio weightings by over 50%. His income portfolio weighting is now only 15%.

HIGH-YIELD BOND FUNDS: In his Marketimer income portfolio, Bob includes a 25% weighting in Vanguard High-Yield Bond Fund (VWEHX). He has recently told Moneytalk callers how well the fund has done.  Last year, Bob added Doubleline Total Return Fund (DLTNX)  which  contains about 35% low quality bonds.


Monday, February 27, 2012

February 27, 2012, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Summary of Third-hour Guest Interview

 February 27, 2012.......................................................................(comments welcome)

Yesterday, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk guest-speaker was Lawrence Lessig author of Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress--and a Plan to Stop It  Published October 5, 2011 

Special guest writer, Frank J., wrote this summary of Lessig's third hour Moneytalk interview and the editorial comments:

Editorial comment in italics.


Lessig is a lawyer and professor of law at Harvard.


Bob Brinker (BB) introduced the author and then said that the issue of money and its corruption of politicians is one of the favorite topics on Moneytalk. He mentioned the “dysfunctionality” of Congress, and cited a caller from today’s program wanting to know how one is supposed to make financial plans with tax policy a moving target?

LL replied
that the tax code is written to assist with the raising of campaign funds, and the uncertainty connected with the code is driven by a pursuit of campaign donations for members of the tax committee.

BB said
the Simpson Bowles committee came to conclusions which were presented to the White House as a menu of recommendations, and as far a he knows, it went into the trash.

LL said the White House recognizes they are “blocked’ from making progress “in this cycle.” The system is distorted by the pursuit of campaign funds. No one can afford to alienate the donor base.

BB said, it sounds bleak, and asked, how does that change? LL said that is will only change through outside pressure: Congress enjoys too many benefits that result from the present system and they understand that their election success comes from the system in place. Lessig said the most critical divide in the country today is the Washington insiders versus everyone else.

Amen.

BB then, without naming him, cited the case of Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs executive who left and “bought” himself a Senate seat, then a governorship, before going back to Wall Street …. Bob asked, with as many as 50% of the members of Congress being millionaires, is this what the founding fathers had in mind?

LL said that the founding fathers expected the members of Congress to be from the elite of society and have private wealth, but the problems we face come from members of Congress who have become beholden to big wealth. Private wealth among candidates is not so much the problem, the problem is the leveraging of enormous wealth (from contributors) to get into office.

BB said a lot of House members start raising money the day after their swearing in.

LL related his own story of when he was approached about running for Congressional office and was told by a potential campaign manager that he needed to agree to spend 2-4 hours every day, making calls to raise money. Lessig allowed as how that is a skill some people have, but it does not necessarily go along with the judgment of what is in the public’s interest.

BB was astounded at the time commitment Lessig mentioned, and referred to the fund raising requirement as “beyond the pale.”

BB asked
the guest, “Who would want to do this? (raise that kind of money?).

LL delivered the punch line
to Bob’s setup: “Well there are 535 of them. And another 535 running against them.”

EC: Good laugh line – but don’t forget the 2 in the White House and the current Republican candidates.

BB stated that we get the best government money can buy. Something he says often on the show, and is correct about.

LL agreed and said, with regard to members of Congress, “you begin to recognize what you need to do to raise the money you need to raise.”

BB:
Where does this leave the typical American?

LL: It leaves them shut out. Some members of Congress have said explicitly how much money it would take to get a meeting.

Before the half hour break, BB said, “Its all about the money,” referring to Congress.

After the break, BB asked LL how do we fix this? Lessig said that right now, 0.26% give more than $200 to Congressional campaigns and a smaller percentage, 0.05% “max out” on Congressional campaigns.

He described his solution, a “democracy voucher,” which would be the first $50 of any tax owed by a taxpayer. Those receiving the democracy voucher could sign this over to the candidate of their choice, who could also pledge to take cash contributions limited to a maximum of $100. Lessig cited some states, Connecticut, Maine, Arizona that have done this for state elections.

Bob
seemed unconvinced and said many are satisfied with the status quo, and asked again, how do you change this?

Lessig said
it would take enormous pressure and mentioned the “Move On” group, the Tea Party groups and the “Occupy” groups as organizations who may have much different political agendas, but (should) have common goals when it comes to cleaning up campaign finance. Neither group will get what they want until the campaign finance problem is solved.

Bob asked if partisanship has ever been greater than it is now? Lessig agreed and said it is due to extremism on both sides, caused by the need for the “frenetic search for money” leading to extremism as a more effective way to raise cash.

With regard to Bob’s question about partisanship and whether it has ever been greater… I don’t want to Go Literary on everyone here, but there was a certain novel about the French Revolution, A Tale of Two Cities, which started with the sentence: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” The point is, there may be a tendency in society to view the current times, in the extremes, either the best, (iPads, cell phones, PCs and the internet) or the worst, (a dysfunctional Congress and $5.00 gas on the way).

Today’s political climate may seem like “the worst of times,” to some, but in our nation’s history, there have certainly been times that were more polarizing. For example, there is the part of our past from 1861 to 1865 known as the Civil War, (also known, to this day, as the War of Northern Aggression in many southern states.)

Sometimes doing nothing is the preferred alternative and Bob has said before on the program that gridlock is good in Washington, DC.


Phone calls:

Harry from South Lake Tahoe read the book and proffered a solution, namely term limits of one 6 year Senate term and 2 terms (4 years) in the House. Lessig shot this idea down, stating that he is not opposed to term limits, but term limits alone would simply place more power in the hands of the lobbyists because it takes some time in Congress before you know what you’re doing.

Bob followed up
with a question about what prevents people from spending the equivalent of a working lifetime in Congress? Lessig did not directly answer the question, but stated that Jim Cooper, a Democrat from Tennessee told him that to some members, Congress serves as a farm team for the lobby industry. Members hope to serve 2 to 3 terms and then move on to lobbying jobs.

Bob referred
to the “awesome power of incumbency” and asked Lessig to comment. His response was something that has been mentioned previously on this blog: gerrymandering, which is the adjustment of Congressional district boundaries that all but guarantee a victory for the incumbent. According to the guest, in many districts, incumbents fear primary challenges from a member of their own party, more than a race against the opposing party. Lessig believes this encourages polarization because the incumbent tends to adopt more extreme positions to counter those of the opponent from his/her own party.

Caller Susan from Illinois --- dropped off the line, missed her chance.

Keith from Rochester
, a caller “of Vietnam age” and a Tea Partier, as he described himself, gave a short speech and then took Lessig to task for implying that Tea Partiers and Occupiers could not work together.

This is not what Lessig said earlier.


And, he asked whether former President Bush, and President Obama had a secret agreement that Wall Street criminals would not be prosecuted.

With regard to the “secret agreement” question, Lessig’s answer was “I don’t know about a secret deal,” and he went on to agree that the lack of aggressive prosecution was outrageous. He added that Bush and Obama were trapped and felt they needed the same guys (the Wall Street crowd) to help solve the crisis, and it would be wrong to get their help and then turn around and prosecute them.

Editorial comment: What we have learned in the fullness of time is that Wall Street needed the government’s help much more than the government needed Wall Street’s help.

In answer to Keith’s question about the Occupiers and the Tea Party, Lessig reiterated that they have a common interest in getting rid of the kind of corruption that is big money inside the political system, even though their political agendas differ.

More editorial comment: I agree with Lessig, but add that the money sloshing around Washington DC should be a concern for everyone, not just Occupiers and Tea Party members. The “system” in place now, disenfranchises all, except for those who can contribute enough to get on their Congressional representative’s radar screen.

And when it comes to the Senate … fuggetabboudit … like the potential yacht buyer, if you have to ask what it costs, you can’t afford one.


The last caller was Jimmy from Portland, Oregon who was “encouraged but discouraged,” and believed that “until you change the hearts of men…” His point was, we are fighting an uphill battle with regard to campaign finance reform and Congress will not come around on their own.

Lessig agreed with the caller and said that the framers of the Constitution created a government for ordinary men. If we make changes to the way we fund elections, then it is possible to imagine government focusing in a way that , will give ordinary people the ability to believe in government again (paraphrasing him here). He went on to cite the success President Reagan and Speaker O’Neill had in revising the tax code in 1986. The implication was, such success would be impossible today, given the extremism on both sides."

Honey here: Frank J., thank you so much for that outstanding summary!! Sometimes I don't listen to the third-hour guest so I can begin writing my show summary,  but I did listen to Lessig because he was very interesting, in my opinion. 

Sunday, February 26, 2012

February 26, 2012, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Show Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

February 26, 2012, Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today..........(comments welcome)

STOCK MARKET....Friday, the Dow closed just a few points under the famous 13,000 mark.  The S&P closed at 1365.74 and the Nasdaq closed at 2963.75.  Bob said nothing about the stock market today.  One caller mentioned that he is a Marketimer subscriber and is aware that Bob recommends dollar-cost-averaging new money right now.
February 2012 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote:  "Given the substantial increase in stock prices that has occurred in recent months, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing at this time. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested." 
Honey EC: Yes, Bob's model portfolios have been fully invested for nine years now -- since March 11, 2003 when he returned what was left of the 65% cash reserves back to the market. At that same time, Bob added Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTSMX), and changed the majority of the weightings in his model portfolios from managed funds to index funds.

INTEREST RATES, BOND FUNDS AND CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT...Caller Paul asked Bob if he should dollar-cost-average money that he wanted to put into the bond market. Bob said: "I think there is the risk down the road of normalization of interest rates...The question is when......If you see normalization of interest rates, then you are going to see a decline in bond funds....It can be completely avoided by putting together a ladder of fully insured FDIC certificates of deposit." 

GOLD AND SILVER, PRECIOUS METALS MARKET...Caller Marty form Rochester asked Bob about silver. Bob said:  "I view silver as a speculation....It's going to simply depend on how popular silver is in the marketplace. We first mentioned silver on the program last year. It was trading around $27 at the time -- through the Exchange Traded Fund, which as far as I'm concerned is the only way that you would have any silver....The symbol on that fund is SLV.....Now trading in the low $30s, it's done pretty well....From my point of view, if you're going to speculate in precious metals, I would prefer to use GLD. That would be my first choice.  The GLD shares, which are backed by gold bullion, a very inexpensive way to own a gold investment.....That's what I'd be inclined to do, if I was inclined to put on a hedge of gold in the first place." 

Honey EC: Bob made it sound like he might have recommended SLV last year when it was lower -- that never happened. He simply answered a couple of caller's questions about it being used as a hedge like gold.  But more important than that, he changed his tune completely about "preferring GLD." Here are two examples of Bob saying that SLV was an exact hedging-equivalent to GLD. 
 * November 7, 2011,  Bob said: "As far as silver is concerned, I think it could be considered as an alternative form of hedging in a portfolio......The preferred way for those who wish to have a silver hedge in their portfolio would be the Exchange Traded Fund that holds the silver bullion -- that trades under the symbol SLV.....the Ishares Silver Trust.

* March 2011, Brinker said:   "I've made it very clear that I regard silver bullion as an alternate to using gold bullion for those that want to have a precious metals hedge.
 PRICE OF OIL AND THE ENERGY SECTOR.....Bob said: "It's all about oil production....Gasoline is derived from oil. So if you are talking about a company that has barrels of oils in the ground....Then you're talking about an increase in the net-asset-value when oil goes up....Obviously if oil prices were to double overnight, you could get to a point of diminishing returns....using would decline dramatically....One of the things going on right now with oil, and oil has moved modestly higher. West Texas Intermediate is a little over $109 a barrel. Brent crude, which is used in Europe and Asia, is around $125 a barrel. This is about Iran....As long as this is out there, wondering about what's going to happen with Iran,  then you're going have people coming into the oil market to get supply." 

 Honey EC:   In May 2009, Bob added Suncor, a Canadian oil company to his Marketimer off-the-books list of recommended individual issues.  This is his only oil or energy stock recommendation. It's now listed as "attractive for purchase" below $33.00.  This company is planning a large-scale increase in production over the next several years.  

EUROLAND AND THE GREECE SOVEREIGN DEBT....Bob said: "Well they came to an agreement on the second annual Greek bailout. If you are a bond-holder of Greece sovereign debt, you are taking a major bath......You're getting creamed....First thing that happens is your face value is being reduced 53%....Somebody sitting with a $10,000 bond of Greece just has $4700 left.....And worse....The new coupon has been slashed and the coupon on the bonds that are going to be exchanged for the existing bonds is going to be three and a fraction....So you get a real present value loss of 75%.....Remember, there's a lot of risk out there if you buy the sovereign bond of a country that doesn't pay up.....Has Europe thrown another  175 billion dollars into the black hole known as fiscal irresponsibility in Greece. We shall know this in the fullness in time....

The immediate disaster of a Greek default has apparently been diverted......The fiscal police are going to be sent to Greece to monitor everything that goes on in the fiscal situation in Athens....Remember annual Greek bailout number one? .......Now they need a new deal....The new interest is going to be 2% before it is scheduled to rise down the road." There are other countries in Euroland that may need assistance....Portugal, for sure...Everybody is hoping it doesn't get to the level of Italy and Spain, the third and fourth largest economies in Europe, because that would be a much bigger deal.....It's a colossal mess..... They must be very sorry that they took Greece into the Euro back at the beginning of the last decade."

**  You can keep track of bond  yields by country here:  Government Bond Yields, List by Country

WILL THE U.S.  FOLLOW GREECE OVER THE CLIFF?  Caller Bob in San Francisco asked Brinker if the United States will follow the route that Greece followed. Bob replied: "We are a long way from it....If congress can get its act together and move in the direction of balancing the budget, or at least get it within 3% of GDP in annual deficits, then I think we'll be okay. The problem right now is that we are not making progress.....I certainly have very serious concerns with what's coming out of the executive branch right now in terms of the lack of appreciation for fiscal responsibility....

Here's the problem, the people who are making policy in Washington right now really do not have a background in investing...And the notion that a president would propose a minimum capital gains tax rate of 30%, after what we've just been through, just proves that he has no idea whatsoever on the subject of investing. That's the reality. That's my opinion."

GIVING $MILLIONS AWAY...Bob said: "This is the last year under current law for the deal that was struck in December, 2010 between President Obama and congressional leaders on tax-free giving. They struck a deal that was unique. And that deal was -- and I realize this will only apply to a hand-full -- that deal was to allow you through the end of 2012.....to give away up to $10 million dollars. So somebody sitting out there with a ten million dollar gift account, would be able to give two million dollars each to five children. Now they don't have to be children, but most people don't give that kind of money to the next person walking down the street....It's very doubtful that this exclusion will be extended....There are already proposals to reduce this provision starting next year....Separate from this, you also have the annual giving limit --  no tax of any kind -- of $13,000 to anybody you wish. A married couple can give $26,000." 

IF INFLATION PICKS UP WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO  INFLATION-PROTECTED BONDS?....Caller Bob from Pennsylvania asked Brinker about Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund (VIPSX) and TIP (an ETF), and wanted to know if their net-asset-value would go up if inflation picked up and "everyone piled into them."

Bob replied: "My expectation would be if you saw the base rate, which is now near record lows, start to rise, then you would see an inverse relationship in the net-asset-value...You would see the net-asset-value decline....This is what we've seen in reverse. We've seen the base rate go down into negative territory on many of the short or intermediate term TIPS bonds and that's what pushed the net-asset-value up."  

Honey EC: Later in the program, Bob said what he has been saying for some time, that he does not recommend Inflation-Protected Bonds at this time. He sold all of the holdings in model portfolio III and income portfolio in January 2011.

**  Bob is likely right about dumping TIPS, based on this article: "Why TIPS Make a Terrible Inflation Hedge"

SAFELY GET 10%  INTEREST IN INDIA? Caller Joel said he had some friends getting 9 - 10% on money in India. Bob said, "I have not checked rates in India lately, but I'll tell you this much. When you are investing in any local currency, you are accepting currency risk. So what you make up in yield on the one side, you can potentially give back on the other side....If you are a U.S. investor, and you go abroad and put your money in a debt instrument abroad, you are then going to be investing in the local currency. When you bring that money back into the dollars....You spend dollars....You don't spend Indian currency, that means when you bring that money into dollars, what exchange rate will apply....If you live and work in India.....that's a different deal." 

** There may be another way to avoid the currency risk. Read about it here: A New Tool in the Hedge Shed

RIDICULOUS CALL OF THE DAY:  Caller Ken from  Connecticut (who said he was 45 years old and married and hoping to retire at 62) said:  "I've been listening to you since day one and I am a very happy camper. I started out with $5,000 and now I'm worth $800,000. So thank you very much for a job well done!" 

 Ken explained that he was about a year away from paying off his $260,000 home and  had a  $35,000 college fund going for his eleven year old daughter -- and was still putting $700 a month into this college fund. He asked Bob if he thought it would be okay to take a five-year hiatus from contributing to his 401K (which was at $700.000) so he could upgrade to a custom-built home worth $400,000 to improve their quality of life.

Bob replied, "Ken I would have to go along with a five-year hiatus so that you could afford this upgrade in terms of your housing. I vote yes."

Honey EC: Bob replied after he sang Ken's praises like a loud Halleluiah Chorus. LOL! But Bob never once asked Ken how he made all that money in the first place. So let's do some math:  In order to believe that caller, you have to believe that he started listening to Bob when he was about 18 years old and had $5000 to invest, which he turned into about a million dollars in assets all thanks to listening to Bob Brinker.  

And Ken did all that while either getting a college education or going to work with just a high school education. He also married, had a child, saved a tidy $35,000 for her college in eleven years -- and all the while,  paid the lion's share of a quarter million dollar home while growing an IRA into  $700,000 (who knows where the other $100K that he said he had). 

It's no wonder Bob didn't ask Ken about his profession or how much money he makes.  Bob surely didn't want to make Ken look like a liar, a fool or a politician after all the smooching he had done on Bob. Or worse yet, Ken might even have said he inherited some of the money he gave Bob credit for.... LOL!! I hope someone will do the math on this caller's fairy tale. :) 

COMEDY SKIT OF THE DAY:   Caller Kevin from Albuquerque said: "About a year or two ago, I got involved with the Moneytimer......I'm just trying to make it grow a little bit faster. How do I get out of what my investments are -- there's only about $53,000 -- How do I benefit from using the Moneytimer?   I mean by using the programs. Just sell a few things and buy what you are suggesting or what?" 

Bob replied: "The only way, unless they match, unless they're identical to what's in the Marketimer investment letter....If it matches what's in the investment letter, you're already there, right? But with reference to holdings you want to make a change on, then the only way I know would be to liquidate those holding and take the proceeds and re-invest those proceeds in the securities that are recommended in the investment letter that you wish to add to your portfolio. I mean, that's the only way that I could think of that that would work out." 

Honey EC: Bob never misses a beat when it comes to touting his newsletter, no matter what the "subscriber" calls it. :)

Bob's guest speaker today was Harvard Law Professor,  Lawrence Lessig: Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress--and a Plan to Stop It

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk on Demand is FREE on KSFO560.  Shows are archived for seven days after broadcast.

Friday, February 24, 2012

February 24, 2012, Today on CNBC, Lakshmann Acuthan Said Recession Still Ahead

February 24, 2012.... ECRI's CEO and co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, made a guest appearance on CNBC Squawk Box this morning to discuss what has transpired since their recession call five months ago.

Bob Brinker, while never using Achuthan's name, has repeated hammered him on Moneytalk for making this call and "scaring" people out of the stock market.

Achuthan stands by his recession call even in the face of what appears to be growing economic numbers.   He said it takes about six months for a recession to become apparent, so look for it by election time.   He talks about how printing money is delaying the inevitable, but to expect lots of economic revisions as time goes on.

 



Achuthan is well-respected in financial circles. He is going to be one of the keynote speakers at Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference on March 22, 2012

Thursday, February 23, 2012

February 23, 2012, Broadcasting from Space Ship Moneytalk

Written by Jeffchristie: 

Welcome to Intergalactic Moneytalk where it is all about the money.  Well the Klingons continue their massive deficit spending with no end in site.  The Vulcan's are working on another bail out package.  Klingon 10 year bonds are yielding 30% while Vulcan 10 years are at 1.8%.  How are the Klingons reacting?  There are riots in the streets on the Klingon home world. I played golf with a Ferengi last week 


and he gave me an ear full. If it was up to him he would throw the Klingons out of the Federation.

From the beaches on Risa to the far reaches of the Alpha Quadrant Intergalactic Moneytalk comes to you each and every week. We are here to answer you questions from anywhere in the galaxy.  Call into Starfleet command on subspace using frequency 2221. 

Rom is on the line from Fereninar.  Hi Bob thanks for taking my call.  Long time listener and newsletter subscriber.  You told us that Gold is a great hedge.  The Grand Negus is saying that Latinum would be even better.  What is your view Bob?

Well Latinun is another speculative metal just like gold and silver.  I don't have a problem with that.  You could use the exchange traded fund symbol LAT that trades on the Ferengi stock exchange.  Appreciate the call.

Galron is on the line from the Kllngon home world.  I do not agree with your views on the Klingon economy Bob.  You have insulted the house of Mogh and I demand satisfaction.   Heghlu'meH QaQ jajvam Translation "Today is a good day to die".   Well we will have to agree to disagree.  Call terminated.

Topol is on the line from Vulcan.  Hi Bob I appreciate your program.  I am buying a second home on Risa.   The bank is offering me a 15 year fixed loan at 4.5% and a 30 year loan at 4.25%.  What is your recommendation Bob?  Well how old are you Topol?  112.  Well since the average Vulcan lifespan exceeds 150 I don't have a problem with the 30 year.

Kirk is on the line from Riverside Iowa.  Bob I am currently home on shore leave.  I am going on a 5 year mission to boldly go where no man has gone before.  I will be too busy to manage my own money.  Is there some place where I can put it safely for that time period?  Well Kirk it is hard to find a place for that long that would be safe.  You could put it in CDs insured by the Federation.  Another option would be the Federation Interplanetary total stock market index fund at Fidelity or Vanguard but that wouldn't be without risk.  Good luck on your mission. 

Stay tuned for our special guest in the third hour.  The Grand Negus will explain the Ferengi rules of acquisition.  We have used many of these though out the years in marketing our products here successfully. Stay tuned.  

Ferengi are a unique species.  Their religion is commerce and their society is determined by profit.

The Ferengi believe that the universe
is held together by the Great Material Continuum, also known as the Great River. The Ferengi believe that each part of the universe has too much of one thing, but not enough of another, and it is through the continual flow of the Great River that wants and needs can be fulfilled, if one navigates the River with sufficient entrepreneurial skill.

Remember Intergalactic Moneytalk on demand is available through subspace communications.  You can download it to your tricorder and take it with you.  


 Ferengi Rules Of Acquisition

1.  Once you have their money, never give it back

2.  You can't cheat an honest customer, but it never hurts to try

3.  If you can't break a contract, bend it

4.  Anything worth selling is worth selling twice

5.  Anything worth doing is worth doing for money

6.  A deal is a deal ... until a better one comes along

7.  When the customer is sweating, turn up the heat

8..  Never take the last coin, but be sure to get the rest

9.  The vast majority of the rich in this galaxy did not inherit their wealth; they stole it

10.  Free advertising is cheap

11.  Praise is cheap. Heap it generously on the host

12.  The bigger the smile, the sharper the knife

13.  Never admit a mistake if there's someone else to blame

14.  Enough is never enough

15.  There is a customer born every minute

16. Greed is eternal

17.  Buy, sell, or forget

18.  Never trust your customers

19.  Even in the worst of times someone turns a profit

20.  Never give away for free what can be sold

21.  Tell them what they want to hear

22.  There's a sucker born every minute.  Be sure you're the first to find each one

23.  A warranty is valid only if they can find you

24.  Never question luck

25.  Satisfaction is not guaranteed




Sunday, February 19, 2012

February 19, 2012, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Show Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

February 19, 2012....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today.....................(comments welcome)

Bob began the show with his usual pep-talk about learning to become your own financial manager so you can avoid shark attacks and eventually reach the Land of Critical Mass where there are "no alarm clocks" and everyone is in the "Cat Bird Seat." Moneytalk is now in its 27th year.

VANGUARD GINNIE MAE FUND (VFIIX) Paul from New York said: "You always recommend the Ginnie Mae Fund from Vanguard, it's in your newsletter. Your show you mention it quite frequently. This talk about the mortgage write-down the Fed has been talking about....Should I be concerned? Is there another bond fund that Vanguard has that I could invest in like the intermediate bond index?"  

Bob replied, "They have many bond funds at the fund family......But you have understand with Ginnie Maes, that the principal and interest is guaranteed by Uncle Sam. It is a full faith and credit guarantee, so that stands behind the mortgages."

Paul continued: "But would the write-downs affect it, maybe the net-asset-value would drop, you know take a big...."  Bob interrupted: "How could that happen if full faith and credit is guaranteed by Uncle Sam? I don't see how that could happen?....The other question that you did not ask is, which is how come the Ginnie Mae Fund is trading at or near its all-time-high? And the answer is because of the fact that Uncle Sam guarantees principle and interest."

Honey EC:  My jaw dropped when I heard Bob say that. Did he completely forget that Ginnie Mae Funds fluctuate with interest rates? I hope that Paul will do his own due diligence and find out that even though the principle of the bonds in the fund are guaranteed, the net-asset-value of the fund certainly is not guaranteed. And while the interest is also guaranteed, the amount of interest the fund pays is not guaranteed.

Bob used to claim that the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund could be expected to stay in the 9.50 to $10.50 range. Of course, when interest rates declined to historical lows, the fund went as high as $11.22 last year. At the same time, the yield dropped considerably. It now yields only 3.1% and is trading at $11.07.

Another important item that Bob always fails to disclose to callers when he is receiving kudos for having the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund in his portfolios, is that he has drastically reduced holdings in it and  replaced it with higher risk funds, such as DoubleLine Total Return Fund (DLTNX) and Vanguard High Yield Fund (VWEHX).

TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED BONDS....Bob said:  "I don't use them....My personal opinion is that the base rate that is currently being offered on Treasury Inflation Protected is insufficient to justify using them."

Honey EC: Bob sold all of his TIPS holdings last year 

BOB BRINKER MARKETIMER INCOME PORTFOLIO:  Caller Phillip said he was soon coming into a sizable amount of money.  He wanted some income from it and was willing to take a little more risk than with a CD. He also said he had some money in Ginnie Maes.

Bob explained that there is no risk with fully insured FDIC CDs. Bob said: "I've taken a different approach for those who want to get a better return on their money. In my investment letter, I have published an income portfolio on page 7.....We are generating a rate of return on that portfolio that's way above the CD rate......It's subject to fluctuation.....We had a total rate of return last of just about 7%, and so far this year, we're off to a good start. We own five different no-load mutual funds in that portfolio. By the way, we also include Ginnie Maes in that portfolio as one of the five holdings in the income portfolio....."

Caller Michael from Los Angeles also talked to Bob about his income portfolio and Bob repeated much of what he had already said about it. He told Michael that he "likes it in its entirety" and he likes "the mix, because it gives a tremendous amount of diversity." 

Honey EC: Bob's income portfolio has never been considered part of his official performance record and this is the first year that he's tooted its horn. I guess he's too embarrassed to toot the horns on his three official model portfolios. :)  Last year, the two equity portfolios lost money and did worse than the total stock market. And the balanced portfolio (50% bonds, read about it later in this summary), made 1% last year -- barely matching the total stock market. 

So why has Bob's income portfolio done so well last year? It's very simple -- almost half of it is in high-risk bond funds which are doing great. (That's where I made the most money last year. I own Vanguard and JNK,  not Double Line.)  The income portfolio holds 20% Double Line Total Return Fund, which  is mostly below investment grade,  and 25% Vanguard High Yield Fund (VWEHX). I think it could be argued that Bob's highly-tooted page 7 income portfolio is NOT highly diversified -- as he claims.

BOB BRINKER'S MODEL PORTFOLIO III....Caller Marcus from Virginia Beach said he is a subscriber and has invested in model portfolio III.   Marcus said: "In recent years, I've been reluctant to be fully invested in the portfolio so I set aside about 30% of my funds that would normally be invested in Money Market accounts, of course the return on those is very minor.....Your opinion whether I should put more of that money into holdings in the model portfolio III, say a disproportionate amount, say in Ginnie Maes or the Wellesley Fund that's there. Or whether I should pick something from your income portfolio." 

Bob replied: "Let me explain why we have the two portfolios....We are talking about the balanced portfolio, which is model III as you mentioned. In that portfolio, we have selected fixed income securities, along with income securities which really have good quality, in our view because we take our risk in that portfolio in the equity side.....In the stock market side, in our  no-load fund selection of equities.....And yes, we have an income section to that portfolio, and in that income section, we really do have quality holdings.....

You go over to the income portfolio on page 7 and you see a different risk profile.....You have to ask yourself how did the income portfolio on page 7 make a total return of about 7% in 2011 and doing well in 2012.....The answer is because we have assembled in that portfolio five funds and the totality of the portfolio which diversifies the whole thing and spreads the risk, gives us that return. However, we're not taking a lot of stock market risk in that portfolio. Over 90% of that income portfolio is fixed income securities. Yes, we have a small component of dividend paying stocks in there, but it's less than 10%. So the bottom line in all this, we are taking the risk in our balanced model III in  our stock market portfolios....We are spreading our risk in the income portfolio over several different portfolios....So there are differences here. 

Once you recognize that.....if you make a decision that you want to have two different accounts -- you want to have a model III account, then on the other side, you want to have an income portfolio, that's a decision that you could make as long as you understand the rationale behind each of the portfolios. That's what I think is very important. This is Moneytalk" 

 Honey EC: How interesting that Marcus has not followed Bob's market timing advice. Instead, he raised some cash -- unlike Bob.  As Bob so meticulously explained, model portfolio III is a balanced portfolio, about 50% stock and 50% bonds, Most of the stock portion in that portfolio is in Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX) and Vanguard International and All-World funds. The holdings in portfolio III that are the same as in the income portfolio are Vanguard  Wellesley Income Fund and Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund

HOUSING MARKET:  Bob made the comment today that the housing market looks like it has "turned a corner."

 GREEK BAILOUT... Bob said that he played golf this past weekend with a "gentleman from Belgium."   Bob asked him about Greece and "got an earful" -- lots of negative sentiment in Europe and willingness to "let Greece go." Instead, they got a brand new $171 billion bail-out package.  Bob said: "It's my opinion, and I've come to this view over time...Based on everything I know, the European Union should kick Greece out of the Euro."

PAYROLL TAX 2% REDUCTION DONE DEAL UNTIL END OF YEAR.....Employees pay 4.2%, employers pays 6.2% -- total 10.4%.  The uncapped Medicare payroll  tax is 1.45%  of employees salaries -- employers pay 2.9%.

IN EDIT:  Received via email Monday morning: "I think that you missed a mistake that he made yesterday. When he spoke of the payroll tax deduction for 2012 he mentioned the maximum social security wages as $106,800. That is raised for 2012 to 110,100."


WILL SOCIAL SECURITY GO BROKE....Caller Tom from Carson City said he was concerned that this payroll tax cut was putting Social Security at more risk. Bob said that Social Security situation has to be fixed -- that  they need to slowly increase the retirement age and possibly do means testing.

MASSIVE TAX INCREASES AHEAD.....Bob said:  "The 2001-2003 tax cuts are going to expire on December 31st. That means all of the tax brackets will revert to their prior level on January 1, 2013.....basically go up....Under the new healthcare law, there will be a new tax on the payroll side of 90 basis points for employees.... So the new Medicare tax will be 3.8%, right now it's 2.9...

.In addition to that, there's another new tax in the heathcare law, which is 3.8% in investment income for those individuals making over $200 or households over $250 per years.....And this investment income will cover a montage of categories.....For example, interest, dividends, annuities, royalties, rental income, capital gains, all of those categories will be taxed at 3.8% above those income levels..... Also income that is related to a business that is considered a passive activity. That will also be included.....

So we are looking at tax increases of massive proportions under current law on January 1st.....They are going to have to do something about it, because the tax take out of all of this combined could be $500 billion dollars annually, if no changes were made. Changes will be made....a full plate putting it mildly."

PREFER SELF-DIRECTED IRA.....Caller Karen asked Bob if there was a difference between a 403B and an IRA when it comes to how it will be inherited.  Without really answering the question,  Bob said that she should primarily be concerned about what the money is invested in. He recommended that she roll it into a self-directed IRA with one of the big brokerage houses such as Vanguard or Fidelity. Strangely, Bob never mentions Charles Schwab, but they are equal or better than either of the other two on expenses and diversity of products.
 
SCARED RETAIL INVESTORS AND STOCK MARKET MELT-UPS:   Caller Larry from  Virgina asked Bob if there might be a possible market melt-up if the retail investor comes back into the market.

Bob said: "I think the typical retail investor is scared to death....They are scared because of what happened in 2008. They're scared because of the flash crash event....They are scared because of the recession forecast that was made by a private forecasting firm last summer that scared a lot of people to death. We had people on television talking about a recession coming. It was going to be awful. It created another great buying opportunity. In fact in my investment for purchase again....We put the buy out at 1129. The market closed within 2 or 3% of that in early autumn.....From there, there has been a melt-up. Actually, in the S&P 500, there's been a 23% melt-up since early autumn.....That rally started within about 11 days of that upgrade to attractive for purchase.....The retail investor has not been part of this because this really started nearly 3 years ago and we're up over 100%......Going back to early March 2009.... I think a lot of the retail investors are scared. They are not in the market and they have missed one of the greatest rallies of all time.

You have to ask your self what would the catalyst would make all retail investors....who have missed this tremendous, historic move in the market the last three years.... what would convince them to all rush in and place their buy orders at the same time.......Look at the news flow out of Washington, it's pretty sad. Look at the news flow out of Europe, it's pretty pathetic. People are caught up in the news flow and they are missing the big picture. And the big picture is that corporate earnings have improved dramatically in the U.S.A. and that's what stock prices are about. They're about earnings."

Honey EC: Bob just keeps on relentless in hammering Lakshman Achutan of ECRI who predicted a recession even though he doesn't have what it takes to use the man's name.  How very nice for Bob that he has the radio program and can hammer Achuthan for his mistakes instead of the other way round. Lakshmann would have more fodder than Bob does......Shall I talk for a while about how, instead of scaring retail investors out of the market in time to avoid the biggest bear in 80 years, you kept telling them to stay fully invested and buy, buy, buy all the way down? 

And Mr. Brinker how about hearing you talk about the fact that this big market run-up that you are so ectatic about only means recovering prior losses for anyone who has followed your advice to go all-in at S&P  1450.   

It's clear that Bob is very impressed with the current stock market rally and is still very bullish. Here's a chart that compares this rally to other rallies over the past 100 years. Looks like peanuts in this perspective:




TAXING MUNI BONDS IS AN UGLY THOUGHT....Caller Mike from San Rafael asked Bob what he thought about the presidents idea to tax muni-bonds.

Bob replied: "It's ugly....How do you spell ugly?...this is not what you contracted for when you purchased a tax-exempt security. I own tax-exempt municipal bonds...I own several state general obligations....After 911, I made two purchases of the City of New York -- worked out very well. So this is not what you contracted for, that some president would come along and come up with some idea to start taxing tax-exempt interest....There are some politicians that have never met a tax that they did not fall in love with right away. It's ugly.....It sickens me when I encounter these politicians.   Tax-exempt interest holds down taxes and expenses for states, municipalities, school districts....bridges, airports, you name it....... You should not penalize the people who are putting up the investment capital that makes these lowers expenses....possible......I'll be very frank about it. I think that any politician that wants to tax the interest on tax-exempt bonds, is a fool.....Any politician, of either Party that wants to levy a tax on tax-exempt bonds is a fool!"

Honey EC:  I had not heard this until today. When did contracts in the United States stop meaning anything?  Reuters article: Obama Seeks to Cut Municipal Bond Tax Breaks

SOLO ROTH 401k and THE LAND OF CRITICAL MASS....Caller Carol from  Santa Barbara said she lived in the Land of Critical Mass and has always taken Bob's advice. She said that, like Warren Buffet, she chooses to keep working. She asked Bob if he approved of her moving some money into a "solo Roth 401k." Bob told her yes, but she needed to be sure and follow the rules.

Here is a good article: Understanding the Roth 401k

COMEDY SKIT OF THE DAY: Caller Charles From Amhurst said he wanted to ask Bob a question but first he wanted to know if he could talk to Bob during the week.
Bob huffily told Charles about the Marketimer website and inferred that if it ain't there fuggedabotit and abruptly hung up.

Honey EC: I felt sorry for Charles, but he should have been listening earlier in the program, then he  would have known that you don't ask to speak to a guy who plays golf with the crown-prince of Belgium.  Maybe he should try the White House instead.   (I don't really know who the man was from Belgium that Bob said he played golf with last week.) LOL!

Bob's guest author today was Les Kotzer:  Where There's An Inheritance...

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk on Demand is FREE on KSFO560.  Shows are archived for seven days after broadcast.

Friday, February 17, 2012

February 17, 2012, Bob Brinker: Rising Oil Prices, The Economy and Stock Market

February 17, 2012....Many times, Bob Brinker has said on Moneytalk and in Marketimer that rising oil prices are not inflationary because they "act like a tax" and a damper on the economy.  

Moneytalk: Brinker said:  "Oil prices literally going through the roof, and yet to the consternation of many, not listeners to Moneytalk, but to many, including, apparently, the Fed Chairman, they think oil prices are inflationary. That's because they don't understand, they don't understand the taxing effect that these higher gasoline prices have on your pocketbook.

....As we've discussed on the program, the vast majority of people in America today cannot even afford to fill up their gas tank. They can't put the $40, $50, $60, $70 worth into their gas tank because they don't operate on a budget like that. Sure, there are some well-heeled that can do it and not care very much about it, but the vast majority of Americans cannot even afford a $40, $50, $60, $70 fill-up on a regular basis-they just can't afford it." 
 
For several months in 2008, Brinker blamed the stock market troubles and slow economic growth on rising oil prices:
 
August 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote:  "In our view, the road to significantly higher stock market prices is linked to oil prices. High oil prices act as a de facto tax on the consumption of gasoline and other energy products. This taxing effect reduces consumer discretionary income, which delays the start of the economic recovery process..... oil prices are the wild card factor in the stock market, in my opinion...."
 
Now here we are in February 2012, and we learn that according to the LA Times,  January gasoline prices are "hovering at record highs boosted by growing economic strength."
Last month turned out to be the most expensive January ever at U.S. gasoline pumps, boosted by growing economic strength. January is typically a month of falling gasoline prices because fuel demand falters in the slower travel weeks that follow the year-end holidays.

And Reuters reports: "Gasoline pushes inflation up in January"
For the Fed, an energy prices spike would represent a quandary: it could hurt the economy even as it boosts inflation. Gasoline prices increased 0.9 percent in January and they have continued to move higher this month. 

"Consumers are going to feel a gasoline pinch in the first half of this year," said Chris Christopher, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

The report also showed so-called core prices, which strip out food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent, pushing the increase over the last 12 months up to 2.3 percent.

While the year-on-year reading on overall prices has been easing, the steady pick-up in core suggests inflation pressures are not subsiding as quickly as expected, and it could lead to some wariness at the Fed about launching another round of bond purchases to drive borrowing costs lower.
So the stock market rose in January, energy prices rose in January and the economy, according to Bob Brinker,  is going to continue growing.

February 2012 Marketimer, Brinker wrote: "We are estimating 2012 real gross domestic product growth within a range of 1.5% to 2.5% with a midpoint of 2%. If we are correct, the economy will show some modest improvement in 2012 when compared to the 2011 real GDP growth rate of 1.7%. Our 2012 S&P operating earnings forecast remains at $103 which represents an increase of close to five percent over our 2011 estimate. At this juncture, we regard our 2012 earnings estimate as leaning toward the conservative side." 

Brinker has been mostly silent about energy price effects on the stock market and economy since 2008. He has said that he is for the the U.S. becoming more energy independent, and he is in favor of the Keystone Pipeline which the Obama Administration nixed. 

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

February 15, 2012, Bob Brinker Marketimer, Land of Critical Mass, ONLY Review

February 15, 2012.............................................................(comments welcome)

Thanks to several comments sent to the blog this morning (HERE), this subject was brought to my attention.

If you take a look at Bobbrinker.com, Bob Brinker's Marketimer website, you will see the following under "Marketimer Reviews." It is the ONLY REVIEW that Bob Brinker offers for his newsletter and it is very deceptive:
 Hulbert Financial Digest named Bob Brinker's Marketimer © to its 2012 Honor Roll of Investment Letters. Marketimer © has earned an annual total return of 9.7% for the 20-year period through November 30, 2011. This compares with the Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index annual total return of 8.5% for the same 20-year period.
 That paragraph is written very cleverly. Every word is true, but it causes the reader to believe the lie that Brinker was "awarded" a place on Hulbert Financial Digest "Honor Roll"  because of his 20-year returns. That is false. Hulbert does not choose Honor Roll newsletters based on their return -- as Mark Hulbert explained in his December 2011 newsletter.  Mark chooses his own "categories" and "criteria" -- all unnamed of course, in order to pick who will get on his "Honor Roll List."

December 2011 HFD, Mark Hulbert wrote:    "Of the nine letters on last year’s Honor Roll, just six made it on to this year’s. It’s not that the remaining three did anything terrible over the last 12 months to cause them to come off this list. They continue to have excellent long-term returns. They instead were victims in part of my re-categorizing the last dozen years into different “up” and “down” periods, which I did in order to recognize the market’s decline that began this past spring as a separate “down” period....

...Of the nine letters on last year’s Honor Roll, just six made it on to this year’s. It’s not that the remaining three did anything terrible over the last 12 months to cause them to come off this list. They continue to have excellent long-term returns. They instead were victims in part of my re-categorizing the last dozen years into different “up” and “down” periods, which I did in order to recognize the market’s decline that began this past spring as a separate “down” period....

...HFD has performance data extending back to August 31, 1998 (the beginning date for being eligible for this year’s Honor Roll). On those pages, you’ll find no fewer than 22 additional services whose overall returns are just as good, or better, than those that did make the Honor Roll—but which nevertheless did not meet the criteria for making it onto the Honor Roll."

If you would like to know about Mark's categories, criteria and "up and down periods," so would I -- he doesn't explain them. .And he seems oblivious to the fact that Brinker has been a buy-and-holder throughout all of the "up and down" periods -- except for a partial sell signal between January 2000 and March 2003.

Now regarding Bob Brinker's 20-year return. Yes, it is true that according to Mark Hulbert,  he beat the Wilshire 5000 Total Return by 1.3% over 20 years.  But remember that Hulbert has given Bob Brinker's Marketimer several mulligans on blundered trades that used model portfolio cash reserves. So this was no special "award" as one blog reader was led to believe. It was the usual list that Mark puts in his newsletters. However, even that list is deceptive because he rearranged the columns so the "risk-adjusted returns" are shown first and the real returns in the interior -- that is a fairly recent development.



If you  look at HFD's 10-year top-7 returns, Bob Brinker's Marketimer isn't there, and he's not on the 5-year list either.




What about the 1-year returns? Here they are directly from Bob Brinker.com:
 1 year ended 12-31-2011 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: (3%)
Portfolio II: (3%)
Portfolio III: 1% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: (2%)
MSCI Broad Market Index: 1% (VTSMX)
 You can read a more in depth article I wrote about Mark Hulbert and Bob Brinker's relationship HERE.

(By the way, based on the dishonest games Mark Hulbert plays with both Bob Brinker's newsletters, I do NOT recommend Hulbert Financial Digest. I subscribe to it only so that I can KNOW and  post facts here.) 

Our straight-talking friend, TFB, wrote this:
 Hulbert is a bullsxxx, penny-ante two bit Huckster who would pimp his mother for a quarter like Brinker. He lost all credibility years ago when he research methodology was examined by some graduate students and only the ignorant would waste time with his fonts of disingenuousness. The folks who pay attention to Hulbert are the same types who use Morningstar’s star system to buy mutual funds.

His clap-trap B.S. cannot hold up to statistical scrutiny and he is the butt of jokes at ISU Mathematical Department(as are others, particularly some popular political pollsters).

You cannot believe a single thing that slime ball says any more than you can trust Bob(how can I fool them today)Brinker. The two are cut from the same cloth. Unlike HoneyBee I think any good Brinker ever did by promoting low cost mutual funds was undone by his perpetuating the fraud known as market timing.

tfb