Bob Brinker, while never using Achuthan's name, has repeated hammered him on Moneytalk for making this call and "scaring" people out of the stock market.
Achuthan stands by his recession call even in the face of what appears to be growing economic numbers. He said it takes about six months for a recession to become apparent, so look for it by election time. He talks about how printing money is delaying the inevitable, but to expect lots of economic revisions as time goes on.
Achuthan is well-respected in financial circles. He is going to be one of the keynote speakers at Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference on March 22, 2012
7 comments:
ECRI's Puzzling Recession Call: The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again
"The credibility of the ECRI call has been undermined by a number of recent economic indicators, including today's better-than-expected decline in the unemployment rate. Likewise the unabated rally in major US indexes since the ECRI call casts additional doubt on their position."
Lakshman Achuthan: You Won't Know If Our Recession Call Was Wrong Until One Year From Now
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php
BP
I find Bob's offer of a free back issue to be laughable as I as a former subscriber have requested it several times over the years and never received one. I then asked two friends (non-subscribers) to try and they never received a copy either. I stopped believing in Bob when his no call in the fall of 2007 went by and I lost all respect when he stopped libraries from subscribing several years ago. His greed knows no end!!!!
Don G
Castro Valley
BP,
Thank you for posting DShort's analyis of Lakshman Achuthan's CNBC appearance, which includes a complete history of the call and charting.
I notice that DShort did not address Achuthan's Coincident Index graph of year-over-year growth. I will add it to this article.
Dshort wrote: "Obviously, ECRI's recession call remains quite controversial in financial circles. The perma-bears are generally supportive of the forecast, while the predominantly bullish mainstream financial view ranges from highly skeptical to dismissive. The credibility of the ECRI call has been undermined by a number of recent economic indicators, including today's better-than-expected decline in the unemployment rate. Likewise the unabated rally in major US indexes since the ECRI call casts additional doubt on their position.
Here is the hyperlink:
ECRI's Puzzling Recession Call: The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again
Achuthan's call is of little consequence, the Mayan 122112 call trumps them all. I was skeptical at first, but on reflection the timing is about correct. The way I figure it is: bad news takes about 45 days to sink into the collective psyche of the American public. The destructive news of an Obama reelection on 110612 will have finally been fully absorbed by 122112. After that, like the Mayans say, it's "sayonara baby".
omnikey has left a new comment on your post "February 17, 2012, Bob Brinker: Rising Oil Prices:
Thanks to all who analyze and clarify Bob Brinker's comments on this forum, as well as those of others. Brinker has always been correct in his commentary on the "taxing" effect of gas prices on consumers, and the economy. I am concerned that he does not consider this a strong head-wind with regards to his forecast, since high gas prices were a major contributor to the events of 2008. I am very worried about the high gas prices and tend to think we are headed for a rough 2nd and 3rd quarter if nothing changes.
"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it. "
--Admiral Jost Painter
Omnikey,
I copied your comments here so they won't be missed.
It sounds like you might be agreeing with Achuthan, or at least concerned that he may be right.
I too, find it very strange that Bob Brinker seems to be ignoring rising oil prices.
Perhaps he will address the subject this Sunday and tell us why (or if) it's different this time. We'd like to know why these higher prices won't act as a damper on the economy, just like all tax increases do.
We know that Bob preaches how paying more at the pump acts like a tax by taking extra money out of wallets. He also claims they are not inflationary. I don't believe that for a New York minute. :)
Bob Brinker added Double Line Total Return Fund to a couple of his portfolios last year. And on Moneytalk, Brinker said that Jeffrey Gundlach was the best fixed income advisor in the world today.
Now it looks like he is making noises about closing the fund to new investors before too long:
"Jeff Gundlach might be the hottest fund manager in the markets.
According to spokesperson Lew Phelps, DoubleLine's assets under management as of February 24 jumped to $28 billion, up from $25 billion on January 31. It was at $21 billion in December.
So, when will Gundlach bring down the gates on new investors?
During the Q&A of his February 14 presentation, a participant raised the question.
To that, Gundlach said he would be comfortable managing $35 billion. But he also added that he could see DoubleLine's AUM rising to as much as $50 billion.
So, new investors have a little bit of time. But not too too much."
Read more: How Long Before Jeff Gundlach Closes Double Line Capital to New Investors
Honeybee I agree with you these high oil prices are hurting the economy. I recently sold some of my mutual funds into this crazy rally. I think we may have a recession especially if this Iran/Isreal thing heats up. I recommend taking some profits now before its to late.. (just my opinion)
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