STOCK MARKET: Bob Brinker did not talk about the stock market or recite closing numbers or year-to-date returns like he was doing before the market began to drop. The last time he made any comments about the stock market was on May 1st when he said that the market had closed at its 2011 closing high.
BOND MARKET....Brinker didn't talk about it today.
LAND OF CRITICAL MASS: Brinker said: "When you are in the land of critical mass, you are the master of your finances and your life because you don't have to go out and work for da man. Now as you know, there are people who are clearly residing in the land of critical mass and they go to work every day. Warren Buffett is probably the best example out there. Here's a guy, who despite his 80th birthday, is out there working pretty much every day. Why? Because he likes it. He wants to do it.
Hey, it's his life. If he wants to work into his 80's, so be it. It's his decision. It's a personal decision. It's not for you or for me to make any comments about what somebody wants to do in terms of continuing to work.....He's working for sport. He's working for personal gratification....And that's what critical mass is all about. It gives you the personal freedom so that you can choose how you wish to spend your time......I admire people who get themselves in a position - through hard work - that they can do what they want to do......What's the most precious asset out there? It's not money. Time is the most precious asset out there....You can't buy it. It's not for sale."
BRINKER IS DOING WHAT HE LOVES....Caller Bruce from LA said: "Thank you for hanging in there all these years in what can't always be an easy job." Brinker replied: "I'm doing what I love Bruce, so don't give me too much credit for that. I love radio."
Honey EC: The odds are pretty good that Brinker reached "The Land of Critical Mass" long ago. About a year ago, Brinker claimed that he had requested that the Saturday Moneytalk program be dropped altogether and only broadcast on Sundays. Since then, Brinker has averaged doing the program about 3 time per month and there has been fill-in hosts the other times.
However, Brinker has continued to use the short time that he is on the air quite effectively to promote Marketimer. This is also advantageous to his son (also known as Bob Brinker), who sells a newsletter of his own. Callers often mistakenly think that the Fixed Income Advisor is Brinker's. It's not, but I have never heard Brinker correct that misconception.
The past couple of weeks, Brinker has done several, (what appears to be paid) ads for Marketimer -- it's been awhile since he did that. So he may "love radio" but one has to wonder how much because it looks like one more cut back and he may as well phone it in and buy ads. LOL!
IS IT TIME TO TRANSFER ALL STOCKS AND BONDS TO A MONEY MARKET FUND? Caller David asked: "Assuming that Congress and the president stalemate on the debt ceiling and we face a crisis of high interest rates or plunging stocks or both, would it be smart to protect against that now by transferring all bonds and stock funds to a money market fund?"
Brinker replied: "I would say the answer to that would be as long as you are willing to run the risk that if it doesn't turn out you're way, which would be a de facto default by the US Treasury, which would be an event of enormous historical significance. If we don't have a de facto default, which can only occur if the debt ceiling is not raised, then you have to be prepared if you exit now to do one of two things. Either to stay out indefinitely or whatever, or to re-enter at a higher level......
.If you are going to exit now on the theory that you're exiting because they won't raise the debt ceiling. And if you turn out to be wrong, and they do raise the debt ceiling, I think that the probabilities would be unfavorable that you would re-enter at a lower level. Of course, it would be always possible to re-enter at whatever level you were looking at .......but you might be really unhappy if you made a move like that and then you had to re-enter at a higher level. And there's another factor. You would lose all of your timeline toward long-term capital gains on any positions held for less than a year in a taxable account.......Meanwhile you've got people like me saying they are going to raise the debt ceiling......... because they don't have any choice. And guess what, they know it.....What you are looking at in Washington is political theater of the absurd."
100% CHANCE THEY WILL RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.... Brinker said: "There is a 100% chance that they will raise the debt ceiling. I don't know for how long or how much they will raise it, but they are not going to allow the United States Treasury to go into a default position this summer because they failed to act on the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default position, which right now would be sometime in the month of August based on calculations coming out of the Treasury Department.....And if they set up a default, all of the Credit Default Insurance contracts around the world that are out there, that have been underwritten on the probability of US Treasury default, would be called in.....If you have no debt ceiling raise, then you have no ability of the Treasury to pay its debts.......This is a big deal....."
EUROLAND FINANCIAL TROUBLES....Brinker spent quite a lot time discussing "Euroland" and the three countries that are in financial distress, namely, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. He called Greece a "fiscal welfare state." Brinker had great praise for Germany and said that "we can only dream" of the day when we could manage our fiscal situation like Germany is managing theirs right now. Brinker said: "The good news is.....in the United States, only about $9 or 10 billion is sitting in the banks in the United States, which represents sovereign debt of Greece."
GREEK BONDS.... Yielding close to 17% annual for ten-year Greek bonds...
RAISE INTEREST RATES: Caller Bruce asked Brinker about Jim Grant, who compared the Depression to what is happening now. Brinker told Bruce that he had great respect for Jim Grant and he was entitled to his opinion, but it's difficult to compare today with the 1930's. There were three major items that happened back then that have not happened now. 1. The Federal Reserve tightened the money supply. 2. The stock market was operating on a 10% margin rule so when the market dropped, everyone on margin was out of business -- and the brokerage houses ended up holding the bag.. 3. The creation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which created international trade wars.
IS THE MONETARY/FISCAL STIMULUS WORKING? Brinker said: "The talking heads have no idea what they are talking about because they miss this point all the time. Where would the economy be today without the stimulus, fiscal and monetary?.....It would be shrinking....They are thinking about the next vote....That is why I have said many times, Bruce, in Washington DC today, we have a dysfunctional United States Government. And I mean it when I say it."
Brinker's guest-speaker was Dave Kansas "Wall Street Journal Guide to the New Rules of Personal Finance."
Moneytalk on demand and to go with Bob Brinker, is available for FREE audio/podcasting at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker. (The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots.) If you don't download it from KGO within seven day, it's available at bobbrinker.com by paid subscription. KGO Radio Sunday Archives
67 comments:
Why do you keep moving your Brinker blog?
Well, actually, I have only moved two times. And each time was for personal reasons.
However, I plan to stay here until Bob Brinker retires, and maybe even beyond.
I have a couple of ideas of where I might take the blog when Brinker retires.
.
Ms Honey innocently states: I have a couple of ideas of where I might take the blog when Brinker retires.
I know where he, along with brinker junior (the one that never worked) would like you to stick it, but I'll keep silent for a few minutes.
I wonder how his (Juniors) fixed income investments are doing with stock market funds included?
Well Mr Pig,
Bob Brinker, the one who is NOT the host of Moneytalk or (supposedly) does not publish Marketimer, has refused to let me subscribe to his "fixed income" newsletter.
Therefore, I do not know how he is doing except that Mark Hulbert (Hulbert Financial Digest) lists him as #26 in "Overall Performance" for the past 5 years. That is without Hulbert's rigged "adjustment".....
BobJr AKA Bob Brinker, started publishing his newsletter about the same time, and Hulbert started covering it immediately.
Can you think of any reason why Hulbert would begin covering a brand new newsletter with the name Brinker on it?
.
Was unable to post a comment on the first caller from last week's show which Honey so eloquently described on June 19, where Mr B brushed aside criticism of his market timing. Which had me thinking, what if Robert J Brinker had taken other career paths?
Client: Mr Brinker, you promised that my testimony would win the case. As a result, I'm ruined!
Attorney RJB: The decision from the jury was most unfortunate.
Son of patient: Your procedure caused massive trauma and complications. My mother is in critical condition!
Surgeon RJB: The results of the procedure which you approved were most unfortunate.
He may be on to something. Whenever confronted with a mistake I will admit neither guilt nor blame, simply shrug my shoulders and say the magic catchphrase.
Let you know how that turns out.
He may be on to something. Whenever confronted with a mistake I will admit neither guilt nor blame, simply shrug my shoulders and say the magic catchphrase.
Re the idiot-in-chief:
"Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected"
Seems like B.O. has already used this idea.
tfb
Anon, I might use different wording, but I certainly sympathize and agree with your outrage and disgust.
Elections have consequences, and people who voted for this failed president must also be held accountable.
He promised everything that he is doing TO the working class, and now we are getting it, shoved right where we should have expected it.
DARN! I'm sorry that you deleted that post by Anon. It was pretty darn good and accurate. The wording was nothing that we have not heard before.
Mr Pig,
You are too fast for me. I deleted that post because of the R-rated words in it, but intend to edit it and re-post it.
I have absolutely no respect for the piece of camel XXXX that occupies the White house right now, he and his ilk voted on bills without reading them and shut our any opposition to pass those bills in the dark on night behind closed doors after bribing members of their party for their votes... you may like that kind of politics, but I don't and will not stand for it, I don't like bills being rammed down my throat and up my XXX without a clean and honest and open debate on the floor...
Honey here: Certain words edited for the sake of the children. :)
Michelle Obama, on safari, sees Republican elephant
GABORONE, Botswana, Jun 25, 2011 (UPI via COMTEX) -- U.S. first lady Michelle Obama and her two daughters Saturday came into close view of an elephant during a safari in South Africa.
Obama, her mother and her daughters, Sasha, 12, and Malia, 10, and a teenage nephew and niece were traveling down a bumpy one-lane road in their open-air Toyota Land Cruiser in South Africa's Madikwe Game Reserve in search of the continent's "Big 5" land animals: elephant, buffalo, rhinoceros, lion and leopard.
The 10 most expensive U.S. cities to buy a home
California locales lead the way when it comes to high-price housing.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Six of the 10 most expensive housing markets in the country are in California, according to Coldwell Banker’s annual Home Listing Report, released Wednesday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-most-expensive-us-cities-to-buy-a-home-2011-06-15?pagenumber=1
As I recently said, I own NLY, a mortgage REIT. How will a weakening economy affect mortgage REITS? Probably favorable as long as interest rates stay low. From Seeking Alpha:
"Chairman Bernanke’s recent FOMC comments indicate a downgrading of the economy. Unsurprising to market watchers, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged and maintain its “extended period” language. The Fed is still clearly in a wait and see and assess mode for the time being. The economy has slowed and importantly the labor market is seeing little signs of improvement.
The Fed lowered growth expectations and raised unemployment expectations at the recent FOMC meeting. In other words, the Fed downgraded the economy and the recovery.
We remain positive on mortgage REITs as we see a weak, slow, and choppy recovery, which will keep the Fed on hold for a truly extended period. Unemployment rates of 9% have economic, political and social implications and we believe the administration and the Fed will respond to a slow economy with high unemployment with ease money.
We believe that future rate increases will be well telegraphed by Chairman Bernanke. The Fed does not want to surprise markets and is focused on engineering a smooth recovery. We believe that Bernanke instituted press conferences to further increase transparency for market participants. Many believe that as long as the extended period language remains a rate hike/ tightening is at least two or three meetings away."
Read more and see graph
Honey
You said you would cover Brinker until he retires. Based on what he said, it sounds like it won't be anytime soon.
"Hey, it's his life. If he wants to work into his 80's, so be it. It's his decision. It's a personal decision. It's not for you or for me to make any comments about what somebody wants to do in terms of continuing to work.....He's working for sport. He's working for personal gratification....And that's what critical mass is all about. It gives you the personal freedom so that you can choose how you wish to spend your time......I admire people who get themselves in a position - through hard work - that they can do what they want to do......"
I got the impression that Brinker was addressing his critics who think he should retire. He is right about this one. It is a personal decision to continue working on the radio. I think he loves it when the callers praise him. Thanks Bob, I owe it all to you. Stan from Chicago said he was a long time listener and thanked Bob for the MOABA (Mother of all buying opportunities). Does anyone here recall when Bob made that call? I can't seem to remember the date.
Birdbrain wrote:
"......what if Robert J Brinker had taken other career paths?
Client: Mr Brinker, you promised that my testimony would win the case. As a result, I'm ruined!
Attorney RJB: The decision from the jury was most unfortunate.
Son of patient: Your procedure caused massive trauma and complications. My mother is in critical condition!
Surgeon RJB: The results of the procedure which you approved were most unfortunate.
He may be on to something. Whenever confronted with a mistake I will admit neither guilt nor blame, simply shrug my shoulders and say the magic catchphrase.
Let you know how that turns out."
LOL Birdbrain...Yep, the magic words: So you sent me $185 for market-timing advice and following it cost you half of your retirement? "That was unfortunate."
Too bad newsletter writers don't have to carry malpractice insurance.
Yesterday, Bob Brinker ranted about "The Land of Critical Mass" several times. He got almost maudlin talking about how "time" is the most precious commodity. And he waxed eloquent about the Warren Buffetts and Larry David's of the world who work in their 80's only because they enjoy it. Then a couple of times, he made the statement that he "loved radio."
I think his message was clear. He's well past retirement age, but isn't about to give up a cushy nine-hours a week job on national radio where he can sell snake oil subscriptions for himself and RMB.
RMB can step into daddy's shoes everywhere except on the radio....the kid has not got the voice or the expertise for it.
.
"Bill Gross who has been very critical of the Fed’s ultra easy policy recently recommended Annaly Capital (NLY)."
I didn't see this. Can anybody point me to where Gross recommended NLY?
Anonymous (please identify yourself) asked: "I didn't see this. Can anybody point me to where Gross recommended NLY?"
Why not ask the author of the piece. I did not include that statement here on the blog.
Or you could subscribe to Bill Gross' newsletter and get the information for yourself.
.
Never mind...I found it:
Bill Gross Recommends NLY and Agency REITs in BARRONS 22-Jan-11 10:55 am
Bill Gross: My other pick is a company that borrows short, relatively safely. It owns government-agency mortgages and borrows against them at about 25 basis points, which is the real thrust for both of these investments. The company is Annaly Capital Management [NLY], a mortgage REIT [real-estate investment trust]. It has a $12 billion market cap. The problem with Annaly is that the stock can go down if the company's repo capabilities [its ability to borrow short term using repurchase agreements] are diminished. That happened in 2008 when none of the banks or investment banks would take agency mortgages as collateral.
Gross: It's at 17.75. The stock can't go up much because the minute the price gets above book value the company issues stock, as it did in late December. This is a dividend-earning vehicle. You wouldn't look for Annaly to rise from 17.75 to 22.50 in 12 months. But it produces a 14.5% yield.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=12664&tid=70510&mid=70510&tof=1&frt=2
Okay, your link doesn't work, but the Barron's quote is available on the Yahoo NLY message board.
This is from January 2011 Barron's:
Bill Gross's Picks
Fund Ticker Price/Yield 1/7/11
Pimco Corp Opportunity Fund PTY $17.17/12.05%
Company Price 1/7/11
Annaly Capital Management NLY 17.78
NLY is selling at `$18.66 right now, but is due to go ex-dividend on June 30th and pay 0.65 per share on July 28th.
NLY x date is 6/28/2011;record date is 6/30/11
bonkenx
Since he was so insistent I've decided to accept Mr B's offer of a free back issue of his letter. Instead of going to his website I will call the Colorado office.
"Good afternoon. I'm calling to request a complimentary back issue of Marketimer. Specifically the Oct 2007 newsletter with the S&P 500 at 1526 and the advice to dollar cost average with a lump sum in the mid 1400's.** Thank you."
**Courtesy of Bob Brinker Fan Club. Thank you as well.
If I voted for Obama I would try and restore honor to my family name. Look up: seppuku
tfb
Seppuku - Ritual Suicide An integral part of the code of bullshito and the discipline of Japanese samurai warriors.
Especially popular amongst yellow bunnies.
Birdbrain said: "Good afternoon. I'm calling to request a complimentary back issue of Marketimer. Specifically the Oct 2007 newsletter with the S&P 500 at 1526 and the advice to dollar cost average with a lump sum in the mid 1400's.** Thank you.""
Well Birdbrain,
If I could get my hands on a copy of that particular issue, how much would you be willing to pay me for it? LOL!!!
.
Specifically the Oct 2007
It is entertaining. I like this part:
"As we enter the fourth quarter of 2007...timing model remains in bullish territory...the risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen...We expect significant additional stock market progress into next year...
So there you have it. They crash was not even on his radar screen and he was a raging bull.
What is especially revealing is that he breaks down various indicators etc in his analysis and makes a very firm case.
There is a lesson for all who try and read tea leaves to predict the future.
tfb
o become respected in the World again...
Heck even Brinker's Market timing has worked out better than that PIPE dream.
FrankJ:
Yesterday's debt ceiling question has been bugging me. Not the question, but the need to ask it.
People like this caller, and many others, invest and try to be a good steward of their money and then they end up having to second guess their plans and consider a major move like going into cash this because of this POLITICAL fight over the debt.
I did not interpret the caller's question as whether BB thought a buying opportunity was coming. I interpreted it as "what can I do just to keep what I have?"
Investing isn't an autopilot activity but it should not be made more complicated by the shenanigans of congress. Just my thoughts.
It really is amoral outrage when the FED conspires to keep interest rates artificially low and ROB people of their saving via inflation. Inflation is theft pure and simple. It is an unconscionable war against timid savers and those in their golden years.
To be honest I am greatly, greatly annoyed that younger people do not see the outrage in this and demand better treatment of the savers in our society.
Essentially these policies force those who are retired to often assume more risk than they should prudently take to attempt to hibernate cash flow.
tfb
Jeffchristie posted:
"Honey
You said you would cover Brinker until he retires. Based on what he said, it sounds like it won't be anytime soon.
[Brinker said] "Hey, it's his life. If he wants to work into his 80's, so be it. It's his decision. It's a personal decision. It's not for you or for me to make any comments about what somebody wants to do in terms of continuing to work.....He's working for sport. He's working for personal gratification....And that's what critical mass is all about. It gives you the personal freedom so that you can choose how you wish to spend your time......I admire people who get themselves in a position - through hard work - that they can do what they want to do......"
I got the impression that Brinker was addressing his critics who think he should retire. He is right about this one. It is a personal decision to continue working on the radio. I think he loves it when the callers praise him. Thanks Bob, I owe it all to you. Stan from Chicago said he was a long time listener and thanked Bob for the MOABA (Mother of all buying opportunities). Does anyone here recall when Bob made that call? I can't seem to remember the date."
Jeff,
I agree with you about Brinker retiring. The way he carried on about how it, I almost felt like he was sending a personal message to me, telling me not to hold my bref. LOL!
Also, thanks for reminding me about Stan. He indeed thanked Bob for MOABO.
I haven't even heard that mentioned on Moneytalk for at least ten years. Brinker used it in 2000 after he raised some cash to make listeners think they needed to subscribe to find out when the market was going to hit bottom.
I do not recall Brinker ever saying that MOABO had arrived. I think it may have something to do with the fact that there was so much controversy over the QQQ trades. There wasn't all that much money left to take advantage of a MOABO.
.
TFB wrote: "It is entertaining. I like this part:
[Brinker wrote] "As we enter the fourth quarter of 2007...timing model remains in bullish territory...the risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen...We expect significant additional stock market progress into next year...
So there you have it. They crash was not even on his radar screen and he was a raging bull.
What is especially revealing is that he breaks down various indicators etc in his analysis and makes a very firm case.
There is a lesson for all who try and read tea leaves to predict the future."
TFB,
Thank you for that flash from the past. It's astonishing to read how Brinker was making the bullish case at the very top of the market in October 2007.
Not even a hint that he even considered the possibility that a major bear was beginning as he wrote that quote above and published it in Marketimer.
FrankJ said: "Investing isn't an autopilot activity but it should not be made more complicated by the shenanigans of congress. Just my thoughts."
FrankJ,
I appreciate your comments about that call concerning selling out in fear of the government not raising the debt ceiling.
I totally agree that investors shouldn't have to try to figure out in advance what damage our government has in store for us.
I think that Brinker's answer did not address the issue of a short-term, but major pullback if their is a shut down.
And he gave a lot of reasons why the US can't default, but all of those reasons do not mean that it can't default. All it means is that is would be a disaster of gigantic proportions.
They said the Titanic couldn't sink too...
TFB wrote: "It really is amoral outrage when the FED conspires to keep interest rates artificially low and ROB people of their saving via inflation. Inflation is theft pure and simple. It is an unconscionable war against timid savers and those in their golden years."
TFB,
It certainly is an amoral outrage, but I fear that the country is in a catch-22 now and cannot escape without causing even worse consequences for saver and retirees.
They did this to us when they started with the Keynesian economics that Brinker so approved of....
.
After hearing what Brinker said about retirement on Sunday, I too believe he will continue to do Moneytalk for as long as he remains in reasonably good health. In addition to him enjoying doing radio, he probably also thought about the difficulties retaining and attracting new subscribers if he were to retire. He would obviously have to drop the Moneytalk on Demand without a radio program. Even a 90 year old person with sound mind could sit at a microphone 9 hours a month (one week off) to answer a few questions and "plug" a newsletter.
Jim,
Good points. I had not thought of Brinker's Moneytalk on Demand sales.
If I recall correctly, he charges about $5 a month for a service that virtually has no cost to him. I have a hunch his webmaster, RMB does all the work on the website to set it up.
If what he says is true, and there are lots of subscribers, that alone is worth working 9 hours a month for...
Let's guess that he has a conservative 10,000 subscribers. How much would that net him weekly?
Seppuku - Ritual Suicide An integral part of the code of bullshito and the discipline of Japanese samurai warriors.
Especially popular amongst yellow bunnies.
Another nasty personal comment from a very nasty, jealous scumbag.
I think you misspelled a word, but I can understand the Freudian slip in your case.
Do you hate everybody, other than obama who is a failure just like you, or does everybody just hate you, including the bots?
"To be honest I am greatly, greatly annoyed that younger people do not see the outrage in this and demand better treatment of the savers in our society.
Essentially these policies force those who are retired to often assume more risk than they should prudently take to attempt to hibernate cash flow."
tfb
On one hand you are a free market entrepreneur who wants less government interference in the market place.
And now you are calling for higher interest rates which stifle economic enterprise and growth.
You can't have it both ways...or else you will hibernate the cash flow of the old folks. LOL
AMD
I would like a low single digit interest home loan please and a double digit CD.
And a free toaster.
I'm trying to hibernate some cash flow.
AMD, why try to put words in someone else's post that weren't there? TFB wasn't looking for a free lunch and he is right about ignorance among younger people.
Frankj
A home loan and a free toaster?
Why settle for that crap? Why not get a free house with the toaster, anywhere that you want, with a Section 8 rental?
Geesh, why would you want to belong to the working class? A member of the freeloader class is a much smarter deal.
Hi Bob thank for taking my call. Other callers have ask you about their concerns that the dollar would no longer be the worlds reserve currency. You always ask them what will replace it. Well according to this article in the financial times it will be a basket of currencies.
Dollar seen losing global reserve status
By Jack Farchy in London
The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn.
More than half the managers, who were polled by UBS, predicted that the dollar would be replaced by a portfolio of currencies within the next 25 years.
That marks a departure from previous years, when the central bank reserve managers have said the dollar would retain its status as the sole reserve currency.
"It really is amoral outrage when the FED conspires to keep interest rates artificially low and ROB people of their saving via inflation. Inflation is theft pure and simple. It is an unconscionable war against timid savers and those in their golden years.
To be honest I am greatly, greatly annoyed that younger people do not see the outrage in this and demand better treatment of the savers in our society."
tfb
How should the young people "demand better treatment" Frank?
A young peoples' march on the FED demanding higher interest rates?
"Amoral" Fed conspiracy theories?
LOL!
AMD
On one hand you are a free market entrepreneur who wants less government interference in the market place.
And now you are calling for higher interest rates which stifle economic enterprise and growth.
You can't have it both ways...or else you will hibernate the cash flow of the old folks. LOL
Yes I want free markets, in other words a market based system of money that determines interest rates.. Money is medium of exchange and first and foremost it serves as a STORE of VALUE. In order to do so it needs to have an intrinsic net worth. You cannot have a free market for capital when the amount of capital is allowed to rapidly expand thus diminishing the value that is stored.
And higher interest rates will not stifle TRUE economic growth.
What you are referencing and calling economic enterprise and growth had no basis is a reality anchored economy. It is simply an unsustainable amount of cheap money at low rates. It is equivalent to a junkie getting a fix and requires ever more cheap capital flowing into the market. It creates large economic distortions that have painful reality based occasional adjustments, such as we have seen in housing.
If anyone wants me to expand I will be happy to do so at a later date. Be advised I am traveling on business and in meetings for the next several days, but as I free up I would be happy to contribute to any intelligent line of questioning.
tfb
Jeffchristie,
Good article and makes the case quite well that the dollar may not always be the world's currency as Bob Brinker claims. Here's the link:
Dollar Seen Losing Global Reserver Status
Well, AMD, one way young people could demand better treatment is through the voting booth, after having educated themselves so they understand the outcomes of different gov't policies.
You know this too, but you're having fun here being snarky, without anything constructive to say, so go ahead, with your snotty posts, I'm not going to engage further.
Frankj
FrankJ,
I think you, and indeed everyone, has become familiar with this person who regularly makes "snarky" and non-productive comments.
What I can't figure out is why he is so obsessed with this blog when he obviously feels contempt for me and most everyone else who posts here.
Unless, his purpose is to offer meaningless distractions and red herrings. You s'pose? LOL!
NLY went ex-dividend today, and as expected, the price dropped accordingly -- plus a few cents.
Probably the few cents is due to the "traders" looking to be smarter than the average Joe or Josephine. This "theory" was posted on the NLY Yahoo message board:
"Prob'ly several better explanations, but here goes:
1. Buy today, you will get 65 cent div (on July 28)
http://www.snl.com/IRWebLinkX/divs.aspx?...
Or 2. Wait & buy tomorrow (ex-div date) and you don't get div, but shr price will drop, ((prob'ly More than 65 cents)), so you forego div but get in at lower cost basis, in preparation for Next div.....
Or 3. Alternatively, wait few more days for possible further dip, and buy at even lower cost basis.....
4. Caution/warning/disclaimer: "dips" are easy to spot, looking "back" at 1- or 2-year charts - not possible to see when you're IN one..... (on any given day, will price rise or drop tomorrow?)
5. answering your question "flat curve and suggested drop in share price": Looks to me like NLY is doing what should be expected: As company "makes money" each qtr that cash piles up and is part of overall value of the company (part of "book value" as well as part of share price), but on ex-div date the div $ amount is designated to go to shareholders, so the company itself is less valuable (share price and book value both drop, by the $ amount of the div.
Looking at just this past qut, notice how shr price has ramped up from $17.20's to current $18.70's approaching ex-div tomorrow.
Regarding "continuing flat curve", these MREIT's are not "growth" stocks per se, since they are mandated to retain less than 10% of earnings (must pay out at least 90% as dividends), so cannot "grow" by reinvesting as do many other corporations....."
Yahoo Finance
One more question Bob. You said if it wasn't for the stimulus and QE2 we would be in recession. What about the extension of the Bush tax cuts? If the current resident of the Whitehouse hadn't extended them, what effect would that have had on the economy?
NLY is now trading at $17.87, down 15 cents.
Wouldn't a person have been better off to sell yesterday and have a taxable capital gain rather that a 65 cent dividend and a further loss today?
????
anonymous asked: "Wouldn't a person have been better off to sell yesterday and have a taxable capital gain rather that a 65 cent dividend and a further loss today?"
Well, if you had known yesterday what was going to happen today, and you were using a tax-sheltered account, and your transaction fees were low or free and you wanted to be bothered with short-term trading, then perhaps you could have made an few pennies per share.
But whether or not you can get back in with those pennies intact is another question.
Do you have a crystal ball?
Sorry, didn't mean to be snarky.
But I find it difficult to take seriously those posters who want a return to the gold standard, eliminate the FED and income taxes, drop minimum wages, etc etc etc.
Snark
Snarky said: "Sorry, didn't mean to be snarky."
Well Snarky,
I want to know if you are the REAL Snarky or are you an imposter Snarky? LOL!
This is the last day of June, so the monthly MACD will be available after today's close. From the looks of things, it appears that it will continue to point higher for the long term.
Short term the Dow can easily make the 12,500 mark in my estimation. The daily MACD has turned up and is moving higher. The only fly in the ointment is the overbought condition, so there could be a short pause in the drive higher.
Viva le bull market!
Hi Dan!
I have been missing you a lot and very frustrated with Google for whatever glitch was preventing you from posting.
So glad to see you got back in, sexy T-shirt and all. :)
I agree that it sure looks like the market had its (about) 15% correction and is now looking good. So glad to know your indicators confirm that.
Sometimes Google will let me on, other times not. I don't know what they want me to do. I log on there, but sometimes they ignore that.
But if I can't use them, I'll use a signed Anonymous post. They will never no matter what!
Did anybody listen to Obama's news conference yesterday...you get this clown away from a teleprompter and he sounds like an illiterate moron...and illiterate he is concerning the marketplace, economics and how the world works in general. The dope is of the opinion that we'll take a few rich guys and some oil companies, which might bring in a few billion, but the only way to deal with the kind of debt we have is MASSIVE cuts to social security and medicare...its the only way. What a clown he is. Its really quite pathetic...I never thought the country could elect another Jimmy Carter.
Jack Swanson
jackswanson2010@yahoo.com
Whoops...jack's email is jackswanson2010@hotmail.com
Jack!! My old friend Jack...It's great to hear from you.
You are the very man who started the whole Suite 101 Bob Brinker saga by posting some FACTS about Brinker. Facts that Brinker could not deny, but still demanded that Kirk delete them.
(The Brinker's are big fans of censorship when they don't like what's written -- they proved that when Junior was webmaster at the bobbrinker.com message boards.)
Kirk stood up to Brinker and would not delete your post unless Brinker could prove what you said was not true, which of course, he could not do.
That is when WWIII broke out and the final battles are being fought right here on this blog. LOL!
.
Frankj:
I watched parts of yesterday's news conference and I thought it was a pathetic performance.
After Biden conducted meetings on the debt Obama got drawn in and my understanding is that he met with his party in one session, then the Repub in a separate session, and then held this news conference where he criticized Congress, and the Repubs, and then millionaires and billionaires and private jet owners.
A good campaign speech maybe, but the occasion demanded something different.
Wow, Jack Swanson!
Jack, there's something I wanted to get off my chest for a long time. And that is as operations director at KGO I could never understand why you have put up with Brinker for so long.
But I'm sure you have your reasons.
JackS comments: "Did anybody listen to Obama's news conference yesterday..."
followed by inane insults hurled at the President of the United States. The funny thing is we have video of the press conference so we don't have to rely on idiots like JackS (if you read it with a southern drawl sounds like Jack%ss - which is how I meant it) to give us play by play.
For the uninitiated here is the link to Obama's June 29th press conference where Obama like all other Presidents, Fed Chairman, etc... you know people of substance and accomplishment delivered his prepared remarks for about 8 minutes and then answered a wide range of questions from the press for the next hour. Absolutely hands down Obama showed the JackS's of the world how brilliant he is... that is why they hate him.
Can you imagine WBush stumbling thru this type of hour long press conference mispronouncing every other word or the cons favorite - snooze you lose Reagan.
Those that hurl factless insults at this president do so for one reason - because deep down inside they know he is better than they could ever hope to be and for whatever reason it just rips a hole in their myopic little world of hate and preconceived notions about people who are different from them and their fear comes out as unfounded hate laced with no facts anyone can find. Absolutely idiotic these people.
Heck the cons after all the insults to this President can't find one worthy opponent who can beat this President for the 2012. That is the funniest part of all. :)
Happy 4th to all even those spewing hate and unfounded insults hahaha
Can you turn me on to your drug supplier?
You are on some REALLY POWERFUL STUFF to be in the Twilight Zone 24/7.
p.s. (that's psst, for liberal dummies without grey matter)......Don't bother making some nasty comments like you did about Jack, knowing he'll never go this far back to read them, because I might enjoy them
no drugs can cure slop for brains.
to make this interesting and relevant to my Happy 4th salute to JackS (said with a southern drawl), who on the current list of Con. candidates do you think will be the nom.
my vote is for Bachmann :)
Pawlenty is tooooooooooo weak - couldn't even stand up to perfect hair man.
Romney or should I say ORomney is a clear loser and he is ahead on money raising & polls for the nom etc
let's see who is left knewt or cacacain brain
choose wisely - ah your right it doesn't matter
Obama will beat anyone the Cons currently have running by 5 to 10 % points
regardless of who it is we all know what the outcome will be right Obama 2012!!!!!!!!!!! now that is some change you can take to the bank.
my vote is for Bachmann :)
What about your other 10 or 20 votes?
AAR, do you smoke it, snort it or shoot it up?
GIMME SOME OF THAT CHIT........it's simply amazing what it does to you and all rational thought.
no drugs can cure slop for brains.
to make this interesting and relevant to my Happy 4th salute to JackS (said with a southern drawl), who on the current list of Con. candidates do you think will be the nom.
========== $$$$$$$$$$ ==========
aw ... was the above question too difficult for slop brain?
Post a Comment