January 4, 2012....Bob Brinker's Stock Market Performance Record for 2011

January 4, 2012....Bob Brinker has posted his 2011 market performance numbers on his website.  Something new this year, he added the three year numbers. One might wonder if he did that because the three year numbers no longer include the 2008 - early 2009 megabear.  (Brinker's  model portfolios I and II were down 57% when the bear bottomed in March 2009.)

Just like 2010, year-2011 was another (almost) 20%  correction year.  Unbelievably, in 2011, the S&P 500 Index ended right where it started at 1257.60, but it was a wild ride. Brinker's  advice (like it's been since 2003) was to stay fully invested and  keep dollar-cost-averaging into the market. In September, he sent out a special bulletin saying that the market was "attractive for purchase" again when the S&P was at  1129.56.

Brinker has three model portfolios that are used for tracking his official Marketimer market-performance record. Model portfolios  I and II are 100% stock,  and model portfolio III is balanced 50-50 stocks and bond. Model portfolios I and II both lost money in 2011.  Let's leave out the three-year time period and look at 5 and 1 year periods. That will even out the results and give a  better picture of the effects of the 2008 bear market and the two 20% corrections. This is from Bob Brinker's Land of Critical Mass

5 years ended 12-31-2011 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 4%
Portfolio II: 6%
Portfolio III: 14% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: (2%)
MSCI Broad Market Index: 1% (VTSMX)

1 year ended 12-31-2011 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: (3%)
Portfolio II: (3%)
Portfolio III: 1% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: (2%)
MSCI Broad Market Index: 1% (VTSMX)

So even though Brinker no longer predicts new all-time-highs or anticipates the  S&P will reach 1600s -- like he did in 2007, 2008 and 2009 -- since February 2011, he has predicted low-to-mid 1400's.

December 5, 2011 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012."

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