Honey's market comments: Tesla and Tech took it on the chin last week, which also affected the S&P 500 Index about 1%, and the Dow a small fraction.
==> Stock Market last week - CHARLES SCHWAB:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined 79 points (0.3%) to 25,917, the S&P 500 Index was 6 points (0.2%) lower at 2,872, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 20 points (0.3%) to 7,903. In moderate volume, 707 million shares were traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil ticked $0.02 lower to $67.75 per barrel and wholesale gasoline was up $0.02 at $1.95 per gallon. Elsewhere, the Bloomberg gold spot price fell $4.35 to $1,995.63 per ounce, and the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—was 0.4% higher at 95.39.
Markets were lower for the week, as the DJIA decreased 0.2%, the S&P 500 Index declined 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.6%.
Joe Tong's comments - just in:
Why does Bob waste our time with repeats - because he can.
Until his program is canceled by the network...or done slowly cause he is losing interest to listeners.
BB appears in retirement, but not in the interest of what once was a great program when it was a "live" program.
Listen Talk Radio:
TALKOFCONNECTICUT
75 comments:
Why does Bob waste our time with repeats ?
Anonymous...Normally, I don't even read any comments that comes from no-name, but I read yours since it was first on the new thread.
There is a very simple answer to your question:
Because he deceives 90% of the audience and sells newsletter and Moneytalk on demand. He's all about getting all the dollars he can for his "young sprouts."
I gave up it, it sounds like a repeat. Wasted a half hour on Bob today.
Why does Bob waste our time with repeats - because he can.
Until his program is canceled by the network...or done slowly cause he is losing interest to listeners.
BB appears in retirement, but not in the interest of what once was a great program when it was a "live" program.
If BB doesn't want to bring in a replacement fill-in, let his listeners know it is a repeat slice and dice from prior programs.
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Joe Tong...You are so correct. What a sad winding down of a man who preached against shark attacks for so many years.
Just in the last few minutes he has advertised Moneytalk on demand without a word that the most one can hope for new material is 3 days a month - and this month, that is down to two days.
And of course, the carefully chosen calls that talk about his "super secret" Marketimer "model portfolios."
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2018:
January 14: Reruns
February 11: Reruns
March 11: Reruns
April 8: Reruns
May 13: Reruns
May 27: Reruns
June 17: Reruns
July 1: Reruns
July 8: Reruns
August 12: Reruns
September 2, 2018: Reruns
September 9, 2018: Reruns
A correction: in the first hour BB was trying to give the 5 letter symbol for Vanguard's Prime Money Market fund. It is VMMXX. Bob said it was "Victor Money Money Sierra Xray" Oops. That translates to VMMSX which is an emerging market fund.
Thank you for keeping me posted on the live/not live shows. Even though many are repeats I always pick up one thing during my listening time. Because it is my time and I am the one who will waste or not waste it .
I started listening to Brinker somewhere in the 1990s. I was about halfway through my teaching career and his advice gave me guidance of being in charge of my investments. I watched a friend suffer through the 1987 market downturn. he recovered and gained more money several years later but fretted a lot during that time. By 2000 I was out of my second marriage and started making decisions about the rest of my life including index fund investing. I had some annuity money that I turned into index funds. The account was 403b tax sheltered and I left alone adding money when things seem low .
I knew something would happen to the market during mid 2004 /05 watching friends spend lots of their home equity money. I didn't know when or what would happen.
When the market fell I wasn't paying attention, being treated for lymphoma. it turned out to be a good thing because again when I was ready to pay attention prices were low and I was able to add more funds. Bob Brinker and Bogle's book on mutual fund investing shaped my philosophy and tolerance for downturns. It allowed me to be currently retired in the land of critical mass.
Again I thank Honeybee for keeping me connected to this community of diverse thinkers.
I wish bob would ask these people who call in with big juicy pensions what they did for a living? Someone today had a 57k pension. I never had a job that offered a pension. I’m jealous. Are they mostly public employees?
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PLEASE NOTE: The above comments will be the last that get published from "anonymous."
The last couple of years it's been Brinker's pattern to frequently take two Sundays off during months that a holiday falls, although not always consecutive Sundays.
12 times recorded in 2018 so far. Will make sure my M* friends hear about it later today.
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I can't even imagine how old the Ginnie Mae call is (45 minutes into second hour).
It goes back before Brinker sold all his holdings in it in July 2013 - and started hammering them as risky.
I just looked at the current VFIIX (Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund) data. It is now selling for $10.20.
Brinker sold at $10.37 in 2013 - since then it has been as high as $10.60. All the while paying a good dividend.
The big tip-off to whether a show is live or not is the third hour. If it's callers only then it is a cut-and-paste. Third hour guests (so far anyway) are live shows.
However, as Honey has noted, in recent months Binky has been doing the sharky sleight-of-hand thing by pasting re-runs with maybe live monologues or whatever.
General MT question: why Bob almost never has recommendations beyond stocks and bonds since he's always highlighting diversification? Are real estate, business and commodity investment too risky for his main audience, many of whom report multi-million dollar net worth? Or it takes too much time to describe investment strategies?
Sorry, HoneyBee losing interest. Thanks for your work over the years, but it is time to move on from BB. I canceled by Newsletter years ago, time now to give up on the radio show
Hope all goes well for you.
Thanks again.
Irishcajun
To jericsg: Recommendations to hold commodities, real estate, or other asset classes are all over the map -- depends on who you listen to.
Commodities typically rise during an equity bear or during inflation. Aside from that they stink and over the long-term they definitely stink. One would be better off taking a potential allocation to commodities and just putting it in a MM fund -- especially now that they're paying 2%+.
Real estate: Supposedly it is an inflation hedge. But if owning a REIT, the NAV generally goes down if stocks also go down, although paying interest meanwhile. I had a REIT for several years but dumped it a couple of years ago.
IMO, complexity is not your friend. Just construct a portfolio with an AA to suit your age, goals, and risk tolerance, comprised of stock funds, bond funds, cash/CDs and let 'er run.
But these are just my opinions, YMMV.
REITs are a part of my investments although not a big part. They are an income play with some total return also. You can own a REIT index fund where you get the good with the not-so-good. Or, you can own individual REIT stocks. Never own non-publicly traded ones because there is no "price discovery," that is daily trading of shares.
Owning individual REITs requires an understanding of what types of properties they own and as important, who their lessees are and the viability of their business.
There are REITs that own strip malls, amusement parks, stand-alone restaurant locations, medical office buildings, document (paper) storage centers, digital storage centers, nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, apartment buildings, student housing, cell towers, office buildings, warehouses, industrial buildings, timberland and I am aware of one that leases buildings to the federal gummint.
I like "triple net" REITs which receive a rent check net of real estate taxes, maintenance and insurance which are paid by the lessee. Because REITs distribute most of their earnings to shareholders, they do need to borrow money to fund acquisitions so they are affected by interest rate increases. However, you can get a clue about this by seeing how much money they have borrowed at what interest rates and how far out the maturities are. This balancing act is a big part of REIT management.
The distributions are taxed as ordinary income so a good place to hold REITs is in a tax sheltered account. REIT valuations should not be made using the common Price/Earnings ratio, they should be evaluated using the Price/AFFO ratio which is "adjusted funds from operations." This has to do with depreciation -- wherein a capital item is depreciated because it wears out, but in real estate the trend is for it to appreciate in value.
I hope this is useful to people wondering about REITs.
Didn't "Anonymous" recently write an editorial for the New York Times?
Bob would be the first to lampoon the annuity 'infomercials' that preceed his show on many stations...shark attacks, blah blah blah. And yet, here he is hawking his newsletter on a canned repeat program.
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Burt.... LOL! Yes, and we all know what kind a mewling-coward he/she is.
Incidentally, so that you all know: "anonymous" continued to spam me most of the afternoon. I never read any of them, so hope he enjoyed wasting his time.
I do have to go empty my full trash bin now.
Holy smokes! Mr. Frankj just graciously provided the world's most down home, good cookin' REIT investing lesson which deserves unbridled praise, so here it is, THANK YOU!! I finally feel "all reit" about REIT investing because of it. I owe you a Starbucks.
Now, let's move on to more important matters. Where is Mr. Radio Host? Inquiring minds want to know.
So after inadvertently striking the Mother Lode of wisdom in a canyon along the American River last weekend, we made a list of some probables and "priors" if you dig cop talk.
1. The obvious one, he was invited to an NFL debut party in the sportsbook at his favorite casino where they know him well. He was the guest of dis-honor and gave his picks freely as touts always do, even on a radio show. His picks were quickly discounted and possibly ignored just like Wall Street does. But the bettors had a good time kibitzing and swilling the free drinks.
2. He might be under the weather. The rehashed "clips" on the show sounded a bit muffled similar to the result of copying (or "ripping" as the kids say today) your friend's cassette tape of Hotel California and then letting your brother copy your copy. The audio quality diminishes.
3. Was there a sprint car race at the Bull Ring? Certainly possible, and was Sammy Swindell in town? Mr. Host might've been hugging him.
At any rate, we suffered through the first hour and compared notes along with each's head scars and concluded that we'd heard 76.9% of those calls before.
Unfortunately, that is worse than a "C" grade for us because we could've cheated and claimed of hearing 100% of those calls before since, ahhh, they were all re-hashed.
Need any investment advice?
In last weeks tread,someone wrote about the:
The Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
I urge anyone considering this disaster to do thorough research. Look carefully at the fund's history, what was originally, the adjustments that were made and the wake in the aftermath.
There may be some merit to this concept, if the person who elects to utilizes it understands what it really does. One decent use of this fund would be to establish a travel budget in your retirement years.
The central issue is, people tended to view this fund as a smart annuity substitute; it demonstrably is not. Vanguard has repeatedly cut the payout (hence my comment to research the fund thoroughly). For example in 2010 they cut the payout by 9%. Understand at that point in time the fund's payout was down in the neighborhood of 23 to 25% (I can't remember which) So that is the demonstrated reality, they can and will cut your payout when they deem it necessary.
So the way to view this is, you invest in the fund and based on the payout you think you will have $5000 coming in a month and suddenly you only have $4000. It has happened in the past and can happen in the future. You have been warned.
As I said,I think its strongest use is for a vacation fund.
tfb
Because he deceives 90% of the audience and sells newsletter and Moneytalk on demand. He's all about getting all the dollars he can for his "young sprouts."
In fairness to the charlatan huckster known as Bob Brinker, he does promote an excellent reading list filled with notable authors and I believe all of them openly refute market timing a strategy.
To his credit Da Brink loudly acclaims Saint John Bogle's seminal work: Common Sense of Mutual Funds.
For those who do not know here is what John Bogle says about market timing when he is in the presence of the fairer sex, I understand he has a harsher phrase for it in private:
I don’t know anyone who can do it successfully, nor anyone who has done so in the past. Heck, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has timed the market with consistent, successful, replicable results.”
My view on Da Brink for some time is, he justifies shearing the sheep, simply because the only people he can logically be shearing are those to lazy to read the books on his recommended reading list. In which case, if you are that lazy then if Da Brink doesn't get your money some other huckster will. Simply put, sheep are made to be sheared.
Now THAT was funny! 🤣
UHT (REIT) is doing great, although a 30% drop and back up in within 12 mos. The fund appeared to not be affected by 07/08. Thirteen percent CAGR since '05. Lots of volatility, but low correlation with stocks. The FFO ratio to stocks is 24.5. Forbes article below has 25x as within a danger zone of overpriced. Reits were on fire from '15, but that is not likely to continue. Reits depend on active management capability. Income in REITS is high so, good in IRA. The medical sector of REITS appear to fall in line with UHC type success that continues as Boomers age.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2017/12/07/the-best-way-to-profit-from-reits-in-2018/#209bd25e757e
I read advice from financial blogs that have very little experience of owning rental property. It's laughable, but with some credibility. More like the ignorant attempting to lead the blind. My experience would not label rental property as an investment, but a business. It's a very good lifetime business that will improve with your competence and hard work, just like any business. The business should provide more stability for your income needs in down turns if you know your stuff. You have to think of the investment in long term. Very long term and local market. To difficult for absentee Landlord. Yes, you need to do it all for good return. A good rental will keep up with stock market average return and yet have volatility of bonds. The investment is as good as your ability and commitment. Also, it will lessen the need for life insurance. It is a hassle, it will always be a hassle tha why is not popular.
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An great economic report from the New York Post:
Friday brought more great economic news: higher-than-expected jobs growth in August, as well as a solid rise in wages — all with unemployment remaining at record lows. Manufacturing activity just hit its highest level since May 2004, and consumer confidence is at an 18-year high. And there’s good reason to think it’ll keep up.
The wage-growth number was the big one: The month saw average hourly wages jump 0.4 percentage points on top of a 0.3 rise in July, making August’s annual wage hike a solid 2.9 percent — the largest since June 2009.
US job growth surges with largest wage growth since 2009
That means the unemployment rate of 3.9 percent conceals even better news: All these stats point to a tight labor market, which means more people are also surely working more hours every week, with folks having been stuck working part-time moving to full-time, and other workers drawing overtime pay.
To Frankj:
Thank you for your Aug 13 post detailing the triumphant outcome of the legal dispute between Honey and myself. After a few weeks of tying up loose ends here I recently embarked on my road trip to riches. I kept a journal with copious notes to pass along to my grandkids, and space permitting, shall document here. Feel free to use these words for your practice as a testimonial from a satisfied client.
Sep 7 2018
4:04 PM Spilled out of a Greyhound bus following a 34 hour trek from the Bay Area to eastern New Mexico
4:41 PM Exit the Tucumcari post office in possession of the life changing coupons that you expertly negotiated on my behalf
5:08 PM Sold said coupons on the street for cash at a 50% discount
5:27 PM Suitcase in one hand and a wad of dollar bills in the other, I stroll into a nearby tavern ready to hoist a couple of locally crafted brews as a toast to my new life in the Land of Enchantment
6:43 PM Well, that's about it. I'll find my way home somehow
Yay!
Another great post from Stinky has landed at the Binky M* discussion site! LOL!
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Bobnotbrinker….
The Brinker's (bots) at M* know very well that the Fair Use Laws are in place so that someone like the Bob Brinker's cannot totally get away with - almost, but then there was me and others along the way - making false, misleading or deceptive claims about their publicly sold and nationally advertised "newsletter" performance records.
They have damaged and caused great pain to those they have deceived by covering up former moves and hiding them from view of subscribers and radio audience.
I have documentation of many of those people. Some have had to delay their retirements. Some have had their lives altered for the worse.
What did that trust that they had (probably foolishly) in Bob Brinker's Marketimer and Moneytalk (and also Brinker's BJGroup) cost them? A LOT!
If Brinker ever retires and I shut down this blog, I will post all of the shady, shyster, disgusting (and IMO, unlawful) things that Brinker has done over the past many years. And I will back it up with documentation.
It will shock all of you to know that he and his coat-tail-riding-son, have become VASTLY WEALTHY simply doing what Madoff did (worse IMO) on a smaller scale.
In the meantime, I know the Fair Use laws and carefully abide by them. Just because the Brinker's despise not having carte blanche to deceive - like they do with the pretend-programs - doesn't matter to me.
Honeybee,
You, Frankj and Stinky have my full admiration and support.
I find it quite entertaining to visit M* to see how wrong the "Bots" can be. Of course they will never admit that...NO Siree Bob!
I have an inkling that most (if not all) of them are sporting pink pussy hats as they type their bogus allegations, hostilities and other nonsense onto the M* Binky discussion site.
BobnotBinky:Me thinks you're right about the Binkybots and their hats.
birdbrain: I'm glad to hear you're getting a fresh start in the Land of Enchantment!
I had always hoped MT would go back to Saturday and Sunday. But with more and more reruns I guess that is a pipe dream. Three in 5 weeks is a disgrace. Hard to keep up interest in the program when Brinker has pretty much retired on the job.
Another thing, why doesn't Brinker use guest hosts anymore? Since Bill Flanagan died, he tried a few, they weren't very good, so I guess he lost interest an decided it was cheaper to air poorly edited reruns.
Just a minor, respectful correction to Mr. Marshall's entry--
Touts generally don't offer their picks for free. Rather, they employ a complex slight-of-hand fee structure that results in profits for them and losses for the losers.
Often seen, the touts will weave tales of grand windfalls and life-changing wealth from simply following the tout's guaranteed and unblemished although somewhat secretive advice. But don't worry, a graciously received payment of some of your existing wealth, as it may be, will unlock the secrets to unfathomable success within the realm of raking it in.
I guess you were alluding to this with your analogy of a "radio show".
The Brinker's (bots) at M* know very well that the Fair Use Laws are in place so that someone like the Bob Brinker's cannot totally get away with - almost, but then there was me and others along the way - making false, misleading or deceptive claims about their publicly sold and nationally advertised "newsletter" performance records.
They have damaged and caused great pain to those they have deceived by covering up former moves and hiding them from view of subscribers and radio audience.
This bears repeating. Perhaps you should consider editing the first sentence, so it simply starts as: "The Fair Use..." and post it at the top every week to drive the message home.
I really do not thin people get home much damage Brinker has done to people with this market timing nonsense over the years. By far his biggest vertical-kitten was his disastrous reaction to 1987's Black Monday and that remains his ONLY attempt at real market timing, where he totally exited equities and went to cash. And in that he blew both sides of the trade and bought in consistently at very higher valuations. Those are permanent portfolio losses that a person could never ever recover form. There is no way as that money was permanently lost. And of course being the rat he is, Brinker has totally expunged his record of those trades.
And of course just this year we heard from a listener who was essentially paralyzed with fear because of Brinker's bullcrap crystal ball antics, so she missed the one decent entry point yet this year because Da Brink was looking for some technical mumbo-jumbo Lochness monster, moss on the north side of the tree signal.
Here is the truth, no one knows. You wither have faith in capitalism, market based economies, and the effect of general population growth or you do not.
Aaaargggghhhhh...
tfb
TFB's number one financial planning for retirement tip(note it is all one big related tip, see footnote #1):
#1 Assume social security will exist. Plan your minimalist(footnote #2) lifestyle around your social security benefit, such that, at retirement time at least your basic income expense needs in retirement can be met by social security alone.
#2 Assume you will not have Social Security and aim to build a minimal retirement portfolio that would replace Social Security. A simple way to figure that is based on an inflation adjusted annuity. Other than that the old, tired bromatic 4% rule (footnote #3) will suffice. The main purpose of this is:
A) as a back-up/safety portfolio
B) as a supplemental income portfolio to enhance you standard of living
*** Note I did not recommend buying an annuity, though you could, I used it as a pricing mechanism.
Try to blend your happyplace lifestyle (desired, everyday lifestyle) around your social security income and 1/2 to 3/4 of your supplemental portfolio, this will allow you to build up some residual income for occasional splurges, which is always fun. It also serves as reservoir for unanticipated expenses.
If, at a minimum, you do the above, you should have a relatively stress free and happy retirement. The reasons are, as follows:
A) you are conditioned to a lifestyle that you can readily afford (footnote #4); in general, you do not miss what you have not become accustom to
B) The built in income splurges are a welcome way to break up the monotony of decades in retirement. The splurges give you something to plan for, builds a little desire, and something to look forward to; in short, it is invigorating
C) You can chose to either buy an annuity for your supplemental portfolio or use a market based portfolio. If the former you are trading off potential legacy benefits for income security. If the latter, you need not worry about market fluctuations or the insidious bullcrap called market timing, as you are very secure in your basic income needs (see footnote #4, again, for why this is important)
In closing, once again, this is the minimum someone should aim for. If you follow these steps your retirement years should, at minimum, be pleasant and secure. And perhaps, the most relevant (to this blog), is if you follow this tip you need not worry about the bullcrap arcane art of market timing hawked by Brinker.
I remain,
tfb
Footnote(s):
#1 This tip is meant as a the very least you should do,it is not recommended as an aspirational goal rather it is meant as a minimalist goal.
#2 By minimalist I mean a bare bones food budget, mandatory utilities, insurance, housing, in other word non discretionary spending. It is not a budget you aspire to, rather what you fall down to.
#3 Since this is meant as supplement or emergency income stream, depending on context, we can ignore the massive deficiencies of the accursed 4% rule
#4 Right now, I know 5 women in there late 80s to upper 90s, each one of them is constantly fretting over their bills and money in general. None of them are actually what I call living. Four of them still drive and all live alone in their own homes, but they are so tightly budgeted and worried about market fluctuations, interest rates, CD yields that their years are spent in a state of perpetual worry over the uncertainty of their income.
Am I the only reader of this blog who feels he has benefited from BBs newsletter & radio show? Maybe it was just lucky, but after following his recommended market exit & reentry 2 years later in the early 2000s, I was able to retire early while ever-bullish friends continue to toil away. And despite contrary mainstream media headlines, many of us are far better off now than in 2006. All I did since then is "stay the course." I wish BB would have forecast that last, awful downturn, but in hindsight, it worked out OK in the end.
Am I the only reader of this blog who feels he has benefited from BBs newsletter & radio show? Maybe it was just lucky
You answered your own question right there. Your were lucky is deciding what portion of Brinker's advice to follow and in the time period you chose to follow it. If you had taken his advice in 1987-1991 you would still be feeling the pain.
If you followed his QQQ advice would you be equally happy? Somehow you manged to avoid taking that disastrous advice. How did you avoid that fiasco; is there some decoder ring the rest of us are not privy to that tells what advice Brinker disseminates you should listen to and what portion you should avoid?
And if Brinker had called eh last market drop how do you know he would not have blown the reentry point like he did in the late 80s and early 90s? On that one, he also blew the exit point. As the market went don in 2008 Brinker had people go into the market only to watch it keep falling, how did you avoid that?
I have no doubt you think you made money listening to Brinker, but I would contend you made money by selectively ignoring his advice.
tfb
P.S. the long, substantive post I sent over building a retirement portfolio last night never made it to the blog... :(
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TFB....On your post to BMV: BINGO!
On your post I had missed: Thanks for calling my attention to it. I double-checked and found it right there - right where I missed it. :)
It's there now - fabulous comments!
Thank you HottieBee, I thought I was in the doghouse or something.
Your ardent fan and humble servant,
tfb
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TFB...Nah, never! :)
Ok wait, a post several slots above this one doesn't pass the smell test.
The poster claims he simply followed BB's exit and re-entry advice in the early 2000's and was able to retire early while his ever-bullish friends continue to toil.
Let's analyze that. We will stipulate that the S&P500 was at its peak in 2001 at 1527 and you went to half-cash per BB, and then waited until the March 2003 "signal" to re-enter at some lower number (insert here), and after some unstated number of years were able to "retire early". Sounds great, and fanciful. What year did you retire, and how many years "early"?
Meanwhile, you imply that your ever-bullish friends rode the market down (like a horse stumbling from under John Wayne during a high-speed Western pursuit) which certainly sounds bad but your ever-bullish friends have prospered far beyond their S&P 1527 to nearly 88% higher. And, if they were so inclined, they continued to buy into the market at its lows as well as its highs (dollar cost averaging).
On the other hand, when you "retired early" did you throttle-back on your exposure to stocks during the "historic bull run" that BB often mentions, as if he's responsible for it? Oh wait, you said you stayed the course. Sounds like you went to portfolio-3, my bad. How much did it dip in 2009? Just guessing the 50% equity exposure lost about 40%, so your portfolio was down maybe 23%. Certainly not as bad as Armageddon.
The point is, the brief summary of your "just lucky" experience paints a rosy picture that is an outlier from the norm or the mean of most investor's results during that time frame.
Not saying you are a "booster" but you did well even as we sniffing out some implied assumptions. I guess "the advice" is worth $185 per year. But don't run to the mailbox each month because a person could stumble and break an expensive hip while the advice doesn't change much over the years.
We should weight the cost-benefit relationship carefully. Need a slip-n-fall attorney?
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Howard and Howard,
VERY WELL SAID and totally accurate analysis.
BMV did so much spinning, I hope he doesn't fall down and hurt himself from being dizzy.
He didn't exactly say when he started following Brinker - but left the impression the good stuff started in year-2000.
Brinker made major blunders the one time he went to 100% cash in 1987 AFTER (as TFB said) Black Monday. The market almost immediately turned up after Brinker went to cash and he didn't get totally back in for over a year later.
In 1998 there was a 20% bear market, but Brinker refused to call it that because he never raised cash.
Then in 2000, when our friend BMV comes in, Brinker only raised 65% cash for that big bear. And everyone knows that he sent out a Special Bulletin (and talked about it on Moneytalk) to "Act Immediately" to put up to 50% of that cash raised into QQQ - which meant a loss of over 70% of that money. (Brinker later covered that up, and never added it to Marketimer portfolios - yep, I have it documented.)
What most people don't know (which I can quote from my old Marketimers) is that as the QQQ dropped, Brinker issued TWO MORE buy signals on the way down. And this is VERY important: Those buy signals were not just for the Q's, they were for a "counter-trend rally" on the WHOLE market!
And then we come to 2008-2009, when (top to bottom) the market lost over 70% - as Brinker issued more buy-signals all the way down!
BMV was very smart in choosing which parts of Brinker's advice he would follow. If he had chosen wrong, he might have lost tons of his money.
Imagine acting on Brinker's "Gift Horse Buying Opportunity" as the market topped in 2008. Imagine that you wanted to recoup that money so you found some more money to take Brinker's next buy-signal the 1300's or the next one in the 1200's....and so on, as the market dropped to 677 in March of 2009.
For any other old fogeys who follow CD rates: Chuck Schwab* has one-year Wells Fargo CDs that are now paying 2.55%.
*I know this because "Chuck is a friend of mine."
To add to the "Buy and hold vs. Binky's moving target" debate:
In 2007 my port was about 65/35, which I rode all the way down. But when the smoke cleared, I was back to ground zero by the end of 2010.
Honey: You noted that the Big Bear dropped stocks by 70% . . . wasn't it more like 55%?
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Bluce….I know the top to bottom drop was more than the yearly numbers, but I think you may be correct. (I was stuck on Q's) LOL!
Hopefully, one of the BRT (Blog Research Team) will confirm the top to bottom loss of the 2007-2009 Mega-bear.
The every sultry and delectabelhottiebee writes:
Brinker made major blunders the one time he went to 100% cash in 1987 AFTER (as TFB said) Black Monday. The market almost immediately turned up after Brinker went to cash and he didn't get totally back in for over a year later.
Milday is being too kind to Da Brink by referencing is market timing debacle as merely "over a year". Da brink went to 100% cash in Jan of 1988,Dow at 2015. He did not get back to 100% equities again until Jan of 1991, three years later when the Dow was at 2550.
Everyone should take a look at his actual record and look at how many vacillation is asset allocation he made, and he blew 4 more trades by selling after he started to buy back in and then buying again at a point above his sell. What you should ask yourself is, what the kittens would have happened if you tried to follow this market timing mumbo jumbo and had a taxable portfolio. How do you find this information you may ask, easy, it turns out this totally hot lady keeps a log at the following url, that actually documents it. Isn't market timing marvelous?
https://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blogspot.com/2011/11/november-17-2011-bob-brinkers-stock.html
Hmmm...thanks Bluce, fluffy may be getting himself some 2.55% action.
tfb
Bluce, I just looked, 1 yr Treasures are 2.56...
tfb
Honey:
11 Historic Bear Markets shows the S&P lost 56.4% during 2007-09. I believe the Dow was a point or two less.
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Thanks Bluce!
Even though I was not born then, and Bob Brinker was not born then, I just want to thank Bob for the guidance I am sure he would have given us all that would have allowed us to sidestep the great bear from September 1929 to June 1932. Those who probably would not have subscribed to Market Timer would have lost 86.1% of their portfolio but I am confident, had he existed then, Bob would have steered all of clear of the carnage.
Thank you Bob, for all you do. You are a national treasure. I am beginning to think we need to start a go-fund-me in order to get Bob added to Mt. Rushmore.
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Jazzman sez
Bluce- Synchrony Bank has a 13 mon. CD paying 2.65%
Sam
From the FWIW department, regarding CDs:
To me, FDIC-insured CDs are as risk-free as Treasurys, and the yields are nearly identical.
My accounts are at Schwab, so I buy what he has -- which are generally as good as anywhere. I often check them against bank rate.com and they are essentially the same.
My CDs are within my SEP-IRA so to keep things simple (which is ALWAYS my goal) I just make a couple clicks and I've bought them, and they show in my portfolio and are included when I check the performance page.
That's my story and Imma sticking to it!
I knew I was asking for trouble when I said something positive, but said it anyway. I enjoy reading this blog, but some folks here are very cynical & angry. Maybe he hasn't helped you, but he's certainly helped me. As for "spinning" Brinker's advice, reread what I said: I was grateful for his guidance both in 2000 & again a couple of years later, allowing me to preserve enormous gains & reinvest them at much lower levels. Perhaps those were just lucky market calls for Brinker, but when you consider the prevailing sentiment at both of those critical times, you had to be pretty smart or pretty lucky to be contrary at both of those times, and it was exactly the right thing to have done. And yes, I pick & choose from his suggestions & follow what makes sense for myself. I don't follow everything he suggests. Some folks here speak rather unfairly when they simultaneously expect him to be clairvoyant and then to say, rightly, that clairvoyance doesn't exist. Simultaneously hating him & eagerly listening for his every new pronouncement seems hypocritical. I read & listen eagerly for his guidance & pick & choose what I want to follow. I don't hate him for it even if he's wrong because I know he's not clairvoyant.
Very interesting conversation, people. Now get back to work. No, Maverick, you don't have permission for a fly-by. DAGGUMMIT!
Just want to hand the lucky guy the trophy. He's the luckiest guy I know. And the smartest too. It's amazing how he sidesteps BB's bad calls and only goes all-in on BB's single good call, even when it was hard to ignore the failed shenanigans accompanying it. Sell in Jan 01 and buy in Mar 03. That was a good call.
Always gets a chuckle from the monikers BB assigns to his prognostications, such as:
- Gift horse buying opportunity
- Attractive for purchase
- Mother of all buying opportunities
- Buy signal
- Sell signal (not used much)
You know, it's EASY to tell people to purchase when the market price goes down. That's why he did it relentlessly during the 2009 market meltdown, and then again in Feb 2016. It was easy and it felt good on the ego. Curiously, he didn't do it this year. He must've had bigger ego fish to fry.
The hard part is to decide when to sell, and his batting average is about 1 for 6, or about .166 as the baseball nuts say.
Perhaps the simple solution is to just buy, don't sell. Shucks, I don't know. Bring on the market timing circus. Especially the clowns. I love the clowns.
Sorry, forgot to include this. For regular radio listeners, do you recall BB mentioning his rationale during the 2009 swoon?
Heard it once on the radio show. A caller asked about it and BB grudgingly offered, "It was a Black Swan event."
Wikipedia.org has a page regarding that term.
BWV, what I learned from Binky:
- To buy only no-load funds
- To put ALL investable assets into one portfolio, structured "from the top down," as he puts it. I found it surprising how many people don't do this, and don't even know what it is. They really don't know what they have because having stuff scattered all over different accounts with different brokers makes it difficult to see how their assets are allocated.
A lot of people don't seem to know how to properly allocate or why it's important. Somebody said (not Binky) that over the long haul, the single most important thing that determines success is asset allocation.
- General market knowledge
- That nobody, including him, can time the market beyond a few lucky calls
- That nobody, including him, can predict interest rate moves
The biggest complaint against Binky -- which many of us share -- is when he puts old spliced shows on the air with NO ANNOUNCEMENT up front that they are not live. That's deception, plain and simple.
Another complaint is how rude he is to callers who don't necessarily lick his boots.
And of course how he buries mistakes as fast as a cat with diarrhea.
There may be more good or bad comments but I can't think of any right now.
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Smitty Smith....You love the clowns. So do I.
And I REALLY LOVED reading your great comments!!!
Bluce posted....
"The biggest complaint against Binky -- which many of us share -- is..........................
Another complaint is............
And of course how he buries mistakes as fast as a cat with diarrhea."
++++++++++++++++++++++++
That last one bothers me the most.
I've acted on several of BB's recommendations, and when a recommendation works out badly, a newsletter writer OWES it to his subscribers to follow up that bad advice to the very end.
Full transparency, honesty and openness is required. Set the ego aside and help out the subscribers.
Robert
a newsletter writer OWES it to his subscribers to follow up that bad advice to the very end.
I doubt Brinker thinks he owes his subscribers anything. I am very convinced the reason Brinker treats callers and his subscribers with such disdain is because of his recommended reading list. How anyone could actually read those books and and then manage to find ANY value in anything Brinker says is beyond me and I am sure beyond his. I fully believe that is how Bob justifies everything to himself.
tfb
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TFB and all...
If Bob Brinker makes enough of those book sales via Amazon, he makes a pretty penny! Amazon commissions are fairly small, but they do add up.
So the fact that he regularly raves about a few of the books on his list (on his website) and "advertises" it on Moneytalk, should tell us he is selling a lot of books.
Another KACHING for the Brinker's!!!
tfb: I also find it odd that anyone could read Binky's recommended books, then still think that Binky can predict the future. They are polar opposites. Oh well.
I wonder where our Beloved Bacon Boy has been lately?
Mad as HELL: So what are you mad as hell at? I assumed your name was because you followed him on the QQQ or something and was upset about it, as is our Beloved Bacon Boy.
Bluce said...
Mad as HELL: So what are you mad as hell at? I assumed your name was because you followed him on the QQQ or something and was upset about it, as is our Beloved Bacon Boy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I'm not the person you addressed these comments to......
But I did follow BB on the QQQ trade, all the way down.....
My only saving grace was that I never sold them when BB said "sell" several years ago [I don't recall the date]......and they have performed great ever since
Robert
Bluce asked:
Mad as HELL: So what are you mad as hell at?
Bluce,
First of all, today I am Mad as Hell at the buffoon who is impersonating me in the post right before yours.
Note to Honeybee, much oblige if you could "do the honors" on pink pussy hat / transvestite / s-hole's fake post - September 15, 2018 at 2:30 PM
Now, getting back to your question, Bluce: I have been quite mellow and copacetic of late, and I give all the credit to the custom straight-jacket I was fitted with several weeks ago.
As for Bob, no I am not MAD as HELL at him. I have listened to his program over the years (much less so over the past 5 or 6 years). I never invested based on show content or any of his calls. In retrospect, that seems fairly wise.
Fast-forward to today, I probably listen to a half-dozen M-Talk shows per year for maybe an hour, give-or-take. The content value just isn't there for me anymore.
That said, I always derive enjoyment from coming here and seeing what other folks have to say. Never a dull moment! And, often I have found the comments here have been both instructive and actionable insofar as investing is concerned.
So in closing:
1. I believe that the straight-jacket will be removed tomorrow.
2. I do hope that our dearest friend bacon-boy checks in here soon to share his wit and wisdom. That helps me very much to get through the bad days.
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Another nice week in the stock market. The S&P made gains each day and ended up 1.16% for the week.
The S&P is up 7.76% YTD.
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Bluce and all who asked about our special Bacon Boy:
I am in touch with him almost daily. He is fine!
If possible, I will try to get him out of the mud-pit long enough to drop by and say hi to all of us. :)
Thanks Honey!
OK, here we go. Must get this done quick while juggling Buck Owens and bluegrass on the other tab because the spouse wants to "wake up early" and attend a flower show downtown tomorrow. Shaking my head in wonderment.
Regardless, this Sunday the radio host will be "alive" because he always predicts a sure thing and takes credit for the obvious results, much like sprinkles on top of a huge scoop. Everybody loves sprinkles. Nobody questions sprinkles.
The Fed will raise rates again this month and the host will claim responsibility for it because he predicted it. He'll then mention the Marketimer investment newsletter, just send...
Here's a prediction, the first caller will "thank him" for their critical mass and genuflect with tears of joy and guilt because they don't deserve it, because after all it was because of him.
Then the next caller will be a civil servant with an $80,000 per year pension who can't find a way to spend his excess income. Luckily, the host will tell him to donate it to a charity, which is a good answer.
See that? Altruism is still alive and well in our human world.
I am in touch with him almost daily.
Jealousy rages. :)
tfb
My money talk on demand subscription has been cancelled. I called ccbil, their billing co., and they said the client cancelled
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