STOCK MARKET...Brinker commented that he is still for having 100% of your stock allocations fully invested, and for dollar-cost-averaging new money. He said that in spite of the auto companies complaints, the stock market had a "reasonable week" with the S&P 500 making fractional gains.
FINANCIAL MARKETS NOW
OIL: WTI crude oil lost $0.92 to $68.69 per barrel and wholesale gasoline shed $0.01 to $2.11 per gallon.
GOLD: The Bloomberg gold spot price inched $0.72 higher to $1,223.41 per ounce.
DOLLAR: The Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—was down 0.1% at 94.66.
STOCKS: The DJIA rose 1.5% (@ 25,451.06); the S&P 500 Index was 0.6% higher (@ 2818.82); the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.1% (@ 7737.42).
FACEBOOK HIT THE SKIDS THIS WEEK - not mentioned on Moneytalk today.
FACEBOOK HIT THE SKIDS THIS WEEK - not mentioned on Moneytalk today.
BRINKER SAID 4% GDP COULDN'T BE DONE, BUT THIS IS WHAT HE IS SAYING NOW....Brinker said: "Well some good economic news. Okay, it was expected. Okay, we said it would happen. We'll take it. Some good economic news in the second quarter of 2018. Total GDP had a very good second quarter. We talked about a nice bounce off that first quarter. We got that nice bounce. The first quarter was slightly revised to 2.2% annual growth. But the second quarter was the headline number coming in at 4.1% annual growth. And that brings the first half annual growth rate up to 3.1%. The advance estimate for Q2 GDP to one decimal, came in at 4.1% (4.06% to two decimal places), an increase from 2.2% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 4.1%."
Honey: LOL! as I typed that. :)
LISTEN TO THE REST OF BRINKER'S ECONOMIC REPORT....==> dRahme's Audio Clip
BONDS, INTEREST RATES...No changes in Brinker's advice to stick to duration of one year or less in bond funds.
ROTH VS REGULAR IRA.... Brinker told a caller today that the only reason he would recommend paying taxes to transfer money from a regular IRA to a Roth IRA is if he was convinced his tax rate would be higher in the future.
HOUSING MARKET....Home prices are at high levels, and likely to stay high because there is a scarcity of available homes. There has been "under building for years," so there is a low inventory.
==> > dRahme Audio Clip: home prices; mortgage rate changes; durable goods gains;
CRYPTO-CURRENCIES - BITCOINS.... Lots of advertising because they are not regulated....extremely volatile....."CAVEAT EMPTOR"
NEXT WEEK IN THE CANYONS OF WALL STREET....dRahme's Audio Clip: pending home sales; PCE Index (watched by FOMC); ADP new jobs estimates.
FRANKJ'S ORIGINAL SUMMARY OF THIRD-HOUR REPEAT GUEST-AUTHOR AND BOOK FROM APRIL 2017. No new information was added in today's interview:
Bob’s guest today, April 2,
2017 was William D. Cohan, author of the book “Why Wall Street Matters.” Today was a repeat appearance for Mr. Cohan
on the StarShip. He is a financial
journalist and former banker. Mr. Cohan
said the book is short, easy to read and it is his hope that people will gain a
better understanding of Wall Street’s importance to their everyday life. (Editorial
comment in italics as usual.)
A blurb on Amazon books
describes this offering as, “A timely,
counterintuitive defense of Wall Street and the big banks as the
invisible—albeit flawed—engines that power our ideas, and should be made to
work better for all of us.”
Mr. Cohan thinks Wall
Street is bashed unfairly by politicians of all stripes and mentioned Bernie
Sanders and President Trump in this regard.
He cited an example of Elizabeth Warren blocking the appointment of
Antonio Weiss to a government position simply because he once worked on Wall
Street. Mr. Cohan said he knew Mr. Weiss
was well-qualified for the job.
The guest believes Wall
Street’s compensation model is to blame for financial disasters that result
(naturally) in Main Street’s dislike and distrust. For decades, Wall Street investment firms
were partnerships, meaning it was the partners’ capital that was at risk
if investments went south. That changed
in the 1970’s when Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette was the first firm to go
public. Many more followed suit and the
result was that risk was no longer confined to the partners, now it was spread
among the shareholders at large.
He referred to the “bonus
culture,” wherein employees of the firm take outsized risks with other people’s
money, hoping for that big bonus at the end of the year.
Bob asked if he blamed Wall
Street for 2008? The guest gave a long
answer, beginning with the statement that there was a lot of blame to go
around. Government policy and the
actions of Wall Street, mortgage brokers and real estate agents pushed home
ownership up from 61% to 70% (presumably
these are percentages of households). As MoneyTalk regulars well know, there were a
lot of people who had no business buying a home during this bubble, but they
were accommodated by a greedy lending sector.
The bottom line was, no one
on Wall Street was held responsible. The
Dept. of Justice under President Obama did little or nothing to go after those
responsible. Preet Bharara, former US
Attorney in New York City has gone after hedge fund operators but not Wall
Streeters involved in the housing debacle.
Mr. Cohan said Bharara told him “stupidity and greed” are not grounds
for prosecution and there is a lack of evidence that Wall Street firms acted
illegally.
The guest pointed out that
Dan Turillo, a former member of the Fed pushed regulations on Wall Street
firms, “trying to turn it into a utility.”
Because they tend to be monopolistic over broad geographical areas,
utilities are tightly regulated.
The result of this
regulation is that small and medium sized businesses on Main Street have found
it difficult to borrow. He cited Larry
Summers as someone who thinks these regulations are the reason we are stuck at about
2% growth of GDP.
Keith from Rochester called
in. He’s getting to be a regular on the
StarShip. Normally he is strident and
argumentative and makes more of a statement than asks a question. But today his call fed right into what the
guest said about the difficulty of getting capital flowing to Main Street. Keith cited the hit Rochester took when
Kodak folded. The guest gave a long
answer which basically agreed with what Keith said.
Bob wrapped up about
3:55.
Honey here: Thank you, FrankJ. I have never before known Brinker to have an author on to discuss the same book he had him on to discuss over a year ago. And as you pointed out to me, Brinker actually said the book was new. The book is available in paperback on Amazon for $1.30.
Mr. Cohan took a cheap shot at President Donald Trump today (something he didn't do a year ago, but that was just three months after inauguration). Very near the beginning of the interview, Mr. Cohan said that the reason people aren't much interested in the problems on Wall street was because they have a short memory and are focused on what's happening in the White House, where there is "a very strange individual who happens to be our President."
I would like to tell Mr. Cohan three things: 1. Of course President Trump seems strange to you. He's a genius and you're not. 2. If there was any chance of my buying any of your books, you did away with that with one word "strange." 3. You slam most investors with your "short memory" insult, but is your memory long enough to explain why on your prior Moneytalk appearances, you never once had a negative word for Obama. Why is that, hmmm?
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