Bob Brinker's Fixed Income Advice
Brinker's bond/fixed income holdings in Marketimer are now down to two bond mutual funds and one money market fund in both his fixed income portfolio and balanced model portfolio III.
Brinker recommends Vanguard Prime Money Market, but has said on Moneytalk that he has no problem with Schwab or Fidelity Money Market Funds.
In 2013 Brinker made changes that lowered the duration of his bond fund holdings significantly. This has caused a lot of lost opportunity costs for his followers - that fact has been documented on this blog over the past three years.
As history shows, the interest rate increases that he expected to be imminent in 2013 only began to appear last year, and so far, have been very small.
However, the economy began to roar back in 2017 and will likely continue. So Brinker has once again lowered the duration in his bond holdings by actually selling one of his bond fund holdings on February 12th and moving that money into Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund.
This move brings his fixed income portfolio to 35% cash (money market) and two bond funds (OSTIX and DLSNX). And at the same time, brings the fixed income portion of the balanced model portfolio III to 20% cash and the same two bond funds.
So to more easily understand Brinker's balance fund that he recommends so highly and so often on Moneytalk - especially to retirees - here is how it breaks down:
If you are setting it up and making the purchases, you would aim for 50% in stocks and 50% in fixed income. In addition to the 2% in money market, you would have 10% in OSTIX and 20% in DLSNX.
The stock 50% would be largely in the fund that Brinker is always touting, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund. The other holdings are so tiny that they hardly seem worth the trouble - especially since the Akre Fund takes you outside of Vanguard for a puny 5%.
(To sum up: Brinker is still fully invested in the equity portfolios and holdings. He recommends dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market.)
(To sum up: Brinker is still fully invested in the equity portfolios and holdings. He recommends dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market.)
Listen Live: 710Knus
118 comments:
Bob has now convinced me that he does not read this blog because he did not come on live today and apologize for the sorry guest segment of last week.
I guess Brinker was just too tired to do Moneytalk after losing that hour of sleep last night. LOL
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Mike E:
In my opinion, you are reading Bob Brinker 100% wrong. The only thing his absence tells us is that he doesn't give a flying fig what anyone thinks about anything he says or does.
I guarantee you that he reads this blog, and has probably immensely enjoyed all the anger and disappointment that he and his guest caused last week.
These reruns are a real bummer. I would prefer a live replacement such as we have heard in the past, e.g. Mr. Kudllow, Mr. Vacar
Well for sure, one of us is correct.
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Mike E.....I'm sure that you know more about Mr. Brinker and this blog than I do.
I'm new here.
I was on I believe a Yahoo Bob Brinker group message board thats now inactive.
Back say 10+ years ago it was quite active. On the bb website there was a special alert section with when alerts the most recent date they we're posted.
If you didn't subscribe to marketimer you could check out this section for a heads up. Then you could go online and Google what the alert was for. Someone posted this trick on the yahoo message board and within days this part of the website was killed. Only email notification to subscribers after that.
So that's proof he or his people read blogs and message boards about him.
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Peter....You are exactly correct. I was involved in that message board - I think I used a different alias, perhaps even my real name.
There have been dozens of examples many could tell that prove the Brinker's read every word that is posted on the internet about them.
I could recite several, but those who want to pretend that altruism is alive and well in Brinkerdom will not change their minds no matter how many times I prove otherwise.
And all anyone has to do is Google Honey-Brinker - and then tell me that they don't read this blog.
Six weeks of re-runs from December to March 11th:
December 10: Re-Runs
December 24: Re-Runs
December 31: Re-Runs
2018:
January 14: Re-Runs
February 11: Re-Runs
March 11: Re-Runs
Speaking of Moneytalk on demand:
What a business plan! Do a program once and sell it twice.
GETTING TO OLD----THREE HOURS A WEEK IS TOO MUCH FOR BOB!!!
Hi Honeybee,
I have been a user of your website for years and occasionally posted some comments under anonymous. But earlier today 1/2 ago +- you did not post my comments, so I guess u are now playing hardball. So, I had to dig up my old goggle acct name and send it to you so I could log on. BTW, I never use the google email acct so I have no idea how to use it. Feel free to call me stupid.
I have an acct with MSN which I have used for 20 yrs or so. Like Peter above I used to be on the old Bob Brinker website before BB and JUNIOR shut it down because he/they did not like our comments and especially did NOT like Randy S's comments.
FWIW, my user name at the old Brinker site was Bob From Cowtown or bfc or was it Bob In Cowtown bic. Stupid me, I'm getting older and forgetful.
bfc
bic
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Bob From Cowtown....Yes, I remember you! Thanks for clarifying who you are.
I apologize for not publishing your first comment. I admit that since I didn't understand it or recognize the initials, I decided to play it safe and just not let it through.
If you will send it again, I will put it through.
Good to hear from you again... Honey
Honeybee, you are good:) I think you said last week that this week wouldn't be live. Does Bob have a pattern of Sundays he takes off?
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Angie...thank you for the nice words.
Here is the list over this year and last year. As you will see, Brinker almost never works more than three Sundays in a row - and I knew that he had been live for the last three Sundays.
I marvel that the network continues to carry his program. It shows you how popular it has been, and must still be.
Although we know that a lot of stations have dropped it, lowered the number of hours they carry, or moved it to the middle of the night.
2017
January 1st: Re-Runs
January 15th: Re-Runs
February 5th: Two Hours Live; Re-run calls 3rd hour
February 19th: Re-runs
March 5th: Re-Runs
April 9: Re-Runs
May 14: Re-Runs
May 28: Re-Runs
July 2: Re-Runs
July 16: Re-Runs
September 10: Re-Runs
October 22: Re-Runs
November 26: Re-Runs
December 10: Re-Runs
December 24: Re-Runs
December 31: Re-Runs
2018:
January 14: Re-Runs
February 11: Re-Runs
March 11: Re-Runs
Previous comments not important.
Thanks,
bfc
The yahoo bb group as I remember we put him on a pedestal. A lot of new investors looking for guidance. It was more like 25 years ago not 10.
I've made a lot of mistakes along the but done a lot of good too. Bob preaching diversification is his shining light even with his con jobs.
I've often thought his 50% stocks in retirement is too high. If the market crashes you won't have your job savings to help offset it. And youre pulling money out to live life. Not a big deal for someone with millions but for a little old lady with 100k 50% seems high to me.
I was was getting stray emails from yahoo bb up to few years ago.i think we did and continue to follow bb because he has some good to him. The other guys it's 100% con.
Not only is Brinker deceitful with Moneytalk reruns, he is also deceitful with Marketimer renewals.
I was a Marketimer subscriber, but dropped it about three years ago. This week, I got a letter in the mail from Marketimer. The envelope was very thin paper, and I could clearly read “INVOICE” through the envelope. Turns out that Brinker just wanted me (and my $185) back.
This letter was clearly deceitful. Per the dictionary, invoice is defined as “an itemized bill for good sold or services provided”. I hadn’t bought anything, so it couldn’t be an invoice. Of course, it went straight in the trash, but there’s a chance my wife would have paid it if she saw it first. (She doesn’t know what a sleaze Brinker is.)
Brinker taught me a few good things many years ago. But he’s clearly slipping, and it’s disappointing that he’s become so obviously deceptive.
OpenID f873031e-2009-11e8-b7fd-1bc579fd9a38 said...
These reruns are a real bummer. I would prefer a live replacement such as we have heard in the past, e.g. Mr. Kudllow, Mr. Vacar
--
I would appreciate a live host for the "live" broadcasts. Also one that doesn't show his political stripes and doesn't allow 3rd-hour guests to show theirs.
JC
Honeybee,
Always enjoy this board immensely.
Also, always enjoy your posts, particularly when the are flavored with a bit of snarkyness!
;-)
I get paid "piecework," that is, I get paid a flat amount for each third hour summary I submit. (And never mind how much...) So when Bob does re-runs it cuts into my income. Look at how many weeks he was off in 2017 -- that took a big chunk out of my bottom line.
Is the correction over?
RE: MoneyTalk scheudules on radio stations.
I'm from the SF Bay Area and last I checked KSFO was only carrying 2 hours on Sunday. KION (local Monterey carries live).
I'm in LA this weekend and I checked KABC Radio's Weekend Schedule; they used to carry all 3 hours live ... I see it is only on at 9PM tonight and the schedule stops. The schedule also lists another program on at 9PM, also ("Crossroads of Health").
So those in charge of programming in SF & LA apparently have more listeners from other programs in the afternoon even though Brinker is live .....well, some times !!
Been listening on the internet for a few years now. Many small community radio stations still carry the program live.
Thanks for your work in maintaining the blog .... always interesting to check in.
.
Note to MikeE...
Feel free to make whatever comments you like. I am not mad or even the least bit upset.
As Mad as Hell said, I can be "snarky" sometimes. Sorry, if my snarkiness upset you.
Smile, who is often on the receiving end of it, just ignores it, you may want to also. LOL!
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So Frankj:
Was that a not-too-subtle pitch for a raise? :)
Honeybee said... As Mad as Hell said, I can be "snarky" sometimes.
Sometimes???? Mmmmmm............
As for Yahoo Utek my ID is still on my picture. Some sites wouldn't allow it. Can't figure that one out. ;-)
Most people hated me there too.................
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Mr. Pig....I'm not certain now that Bob From Cowtown has posted, whether or not he and Peter are talking about the same Yahoo UTEK board that we are talking about.
I know that the Brinker message boards they mention are the same, I remember them from there. But wasn't there a very close group of Brinker-fans on Yahoo (or was it MSN?) who kicked out riff-raff like you and me?
I'm wondering if that isn't the group that Bob From Cowtown is talking about. Hopefully, he will confirm that for us so we can stroll down memory lane. :)
frankj: If you take what Honey gives you every week for writing the guest summary, and put it in an S&P index fund -- in approximately 127 years you will be wealthy beyond your dreams.
Note to self: I should start charging for investment advice.
Too bad Bob was absent today. He missed a timely opportunity to go over the nice jobs report numbers, record high close of QQQ, and a probable upward revision of Q4 '17 GDP number from 2.6 to 2.9!
I suppose we can hear about it next week, after it becomes old news.
PS...I too remember the chummy BB/Yahoo boards of the 90's.
Honeybee said...
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Mr. Pig....I'm not certain now that Bob From Cowtown has posted, whether or not he and Peter are talking about the same Yahoo UTEK board that we are talking about.
I know that the Brinker message boards they mention are the same, I remember them from there. But wasn't there a very close group of Brinker-fans on Yahoo (or was it MSN?) who kicked out riff-raff like you and me?
I only remember the Yahoo Utek board about boB. The Bot club was over at MSN if my failing memory is correct. Yep, we got our behinds booted quickly.
In fact, didn't you unintentionally blow the whistle on me with a casual remark over there? I cried for days and was so despondent.
I too was a Marketimer subscriber off and on for many years, but dropped it a couple years ago. This past week, I also got a letter in the mail from Marketimer. The envelope was very thin paper, and I could clearly read “INVOICE” through the envelope. Turned out that Brinker wanted me too (and my $185). A real coincidence on the mail drop.
Anyhoo-I do enjoy the banter on the HB blog here, but wish there was more 'investment' discussion.
My two cents is this-Does anyonelse subscribe to the theory that there is a distinct 'floor' to the S&P at around 2750 and this should be a Sell. At S&P below 2700 is a Buy?
Pls sign me KC Chuck
Thanks
Carlos Hernandez
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Pig with a memory like an elephant and still holding a grudge against me said: In fact, didn't you unintentionally blow the whistle on me with a casual remark over there? I cried for days and was so despondent.
Now here all these years later you know how utterly naïve I was back then. You were successfully staying under the radar, but did I know that? Nope! I was so thrilled when DanG invited me into the group, and told me I would be welcomed, I believed him and blew it and took you down with me.
I was lied to (duhhhh) by a Brinker fan. And anyone who was a known friend of Brinker's worst nemesis - Moi - was automatically an enemy of Brinker fans (using "fans" to be kind) - and that was you, unfortunately.
When I said a special "hi" to you, that got both of us booted. No critic of Bob Brinker could be tolerated in that group.
It's too bad Bob does not do two live shows a week like he use to. Even then he always took one weekend off a month. I've noticed less stations are carrying the program and I can't blame them. Brinker was very good and popular in the '90s; he was carried on a lot of markets and even did live shows (I remember he use to like to go to San Francisco for live shows and some guy called in live from the hotel's lobby when the show was on one time!) I'm guessing a lot of Bob's old listeners have died off; it's rare you hear a younger caller these days. I'm also guessing the show will be completely off the air within two years. Everything changes and I still remember learning a lot from him in the 90s.
KC Chuck - interesting to hear that you got the same letter that I did. Glad that you didn’t pay the “INVOICE”.
To top it off, Brinker’s letter offered a 13th issue for “free”. Bet it would be a recycled copy of the current month Marketimer.
Well, GNMA at Vanguard has earned Morningstar's Gold Rating! I have been with this Fund for many years. I am pleased with its performance.
AT THE TRACK; We had one (1) second place finish The other two (2) raced out of the money. So......not too good!
The Market is on inflation watch this week. Amazon has laid off 100 or so workers. Last week, Cramer rated Cigna a buy at $150.
The Pharma space will see many changes.
Gabe
John said...
Too bad Bob was absent today. He missed a timely opportunity to go over the nice jobs report numbers, record high close of QQQ.....
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Speaking of QQQ, can anyone provide the date that Brinker sold QQQ? And if you have it, the price of QQQ when he sold it?
If you don't have the exact date that Brinker sold QQQ, what was the approximate date?
thanks
Robert
DSLNX is just plain stupid now and can't figure out why he's still holding fast to that one.. subtract the fee, and you're at money-market rates, without losing sleep worrying that the fund price will continue to drop.
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Robert/rjb112...
Brinker sold QQQ in October 2012 at $67.26 per share.
Be aware that there had been no follow up advice on the QQQ trade for almost 10 years when he last told subscribers to "hold" them.
Be aware that Brinker never added the QQQ's that he recommended with up to 50% of the year-2000 cash reserves he raised, so his performance record never accounted for them.
However, he made a point of closing out the QQQ trade even though it was still at a loss. A loss that after holding ten years, could have made real money by holding until now.
Be aware that he covered up the QQQ purchase by adding Rydex Nasdaq-100 Fund (a proxy for QQQ) to his model portfolios at the time the he returned to fully invested in March 2003.
So clearly, he took a double bite of QQQ and covered up completely the disastrous trade.
MARKETIMER OCTOBER 2012; Page 3; Bob Brinker wrote: "In addition to our recommendation to eliminate Rydex Nasdaq_100 Fund from model portfolios I and II, we also recommend the sale of any QQQ shares that are held by subscribers....."
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Mark...I took a look at DSLNX today and it has basically returned nothing so far this year.
So clearly, he took a double bite of QQQ and covered up completely the disastrous trade.
MARKETIMER OCTOBER 2012; Page 3; Bob Brinker wrote: "In addition to our recommendation to eliminate Rydex Nasdaq_100 Fund from model portfolios I and II, we also recommend the sale of any QQQ shares that are held by subscribers....."
Da Brink is such a genius...is't market timing awesome!!!! I still love his bail out of the market in 1987 after the market went down and locking in a loss and then buying back in at substantially higher costs...that remains my favorite.
Having repeats is better than the awful Bill Flanagan ( a nice but incompetent host, sadly passed away). Here is my call from 10 years ago but skip to 5:20 and hear why Bill was not invited back. I over did the repeats at the end.
https://www.youtube.com/edit?o=U&video_id=ssFEIcts7PQ
Oldie but maybe insightful prognosticator Lakshman Achuthan on Jobs report analysis and GDP. Unconventional view... but as I said keep an eye on GDP YOY view not the headline quarterly annualized (do the math).
https://share.insider.thomsonreuters.com/link?entryId=1_m3q9vap3&referenceId=1_m3q9vap3&pageId=ReutersNews
smile
p.s. I stopped following Lakshman's work probably because it made some faulty forecasts on growth. If I recall correctly good calls going into 2008-9 Great recession but not so much coming out although admit to being fuzzy on the facts. I say take what he says throw it into the hopper and if it makes sense to you use it otherwise discard.
Mark: what you cited is the reason I turned my short duration bond fund into a CD ladder. Taking away from the return there is the expense ratio (which was very low). Then there is the loss of net asset value due to interest rate increases. Finally there is the bite that inflation takes.
I couldn't control inflation but I could do something about the first two by moving the fund money to a CD ladder.
Honeybee,
Thanks very much for your history of the QQQ trades. I knew it was a bad call but have forgotten (or possibly never knew) how utterly disastrous that trade was.
I wonder how many folks traveled on a 10-year journey to the land of Critical MESS.
JC
Bob is still alive? Thought his QQQ call would have killed him off by now. What a clown. And now Kudlow may be in the Trump administration and Bob once poked fun that Larry was in rehab. Jealous much?
Erratic Market......Vanguard podcast Mar 15 at 7:30 Eastern. It is on RETIREMENT.
Gabe
John wrote: "Too bad Bob was absent today. He missed a timely opportunity to go over the nice jobs report numbers, record high close of QQQ, and a probable upward revision of Q4 '17 GDP number from 2.6 to 2.9!"
IMO: Bob will go out of his way to NOT say anything good or helpful regarding the Trump Administration, so ducking out yesterday fits his profile.
Sure, he will grudgingly mention jobs up, growth up, etc. when it's staring him and everybody else in the face, but I bet he's got his barf bag nearby when he does it.
.
Bluce....I seldom hear Brinker say anything good about jobs or the economy without first, and sometimes last, claiming that the growth started several years ago.
And especially the stock market, which is up almost 40% since election day.
Honey Bee,
The board I mentioned in my above post was the board on the Bob Brinker web site, the original board as I recollect. We were giving our own opinions and everyone got along fairly well. Then all of a sudden BB and son started deleting posts that they did not like and finally market guru Randy S posted opinions that BB and son did not agree with and they then shut down the BB chat site.
I did join or review the Yahoo website, but, it was different and I eventually lost interest in it.
bfc
On my 401k at a major brokerage I've got blackrock target retirement funds. They're very similar to vanguards. Clone components to vti, bnd, vxus, and bndx.
On on a day like it appears today will be when the four components are all slightly positive the suckers will be slightly down.
Anyone else have these and noticed this.
I'm hearing President Trump talking about the 2020 election. Boy, is that great news!
Honeybee said...
"Robert/rjb112...
Brinker sold QQQ in October 2012 at $67.26 per share.
MARKETIMER OCTOBER 2012; Page 3; Bob Brinker wrote: "In addition to our recommendation to eliminate Rydex Nasdaq_100 Fund from model portfolios I and II, we also recommend the sale of any QQQ shares that are held by subscribers....."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So how well did selling QQQ work out?
Let's assume that subscribers taking Bob Brinker's advice to sell QQQ would have put the money into the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.
Here's the total return of QQQ versus the total return of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund starting October 1, 2012, until now, using the website www.portfoliovisualizer.com
$100,000 invested in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund grew to $209,249
$100,000 invested in QQQ grew to $259,657
And even the risk adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) has been higher for QQQ since selling it.
Per Morningstar, "The higher a fund's Sharpe ratio, the better a fund's returns have been relative to the risk it has taken on."
Cheers,
Robert
You're so right about Brinker not giving Trump any credit. As I mentioned in last weeks comments manufacturing jobs over the last 12 months have grown at the fastest rate in 20 years. I believe Trump's policies are responsible for the re-emergence of the manufacturing sector. Brinker didn't want to talk about the jobs report because he probably would have had to mention that 31K manufacturing jobs were added in the report. Those statistics fly in the face of what Brinker has been spouting for years about the U.S. becoming only a service based economy and that manufacturing jobs are gone forever.
Someone asked if Brinker might apologize for his last guest segment. It'll never happen. Brinker didn't apologize for his QQQ debacle nor for his keeping subscribers invested during the worst bear market of our lives, so he won't apologize for the guest. In fact, I think Brinker probably agrees with the guest. Instead of unloading on the President himself maybe Brinker thought if he invites someone on from the world of academia to say what he was thinking it might add some credibility to what was being said.
Had not heard that Bob mocked Larry K about rehab. If that is so, how low will this man go?
Pavlov’s Cat
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Very low, Pavlov's Cat, VERY LOW.
But I won't start reciting stories again today. :)
Honeybee, I know Bobs QQQ call was a total miss, but from what I can remember,
his “attractive for purchase” alerts were pretty darn good. Did he ever make a bad
purchase call?
Here's the total return of QQQ versus the total return of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund starting October 1, 2012, until now, using the website www.portfoliovisualizer.com
$100,000 invested in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund grew to $209,249
$100,000 invested in QQQ grew to $259,657
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So an investment in QQQ did 24% better than an investment in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund from October 1, 2012 until now, according to www.portfoliovisualizer.com
According to Morningstar:
QQQ went up 18.12% in 2012 vs. 16.25% for the Total Market Index,
QQQ went up 36.63% in 2013 vs. 33.35% for the Total Market Index,
QQQ went up 19.18% in 2014 vs. 12.43% for the Total Market Index,
QQQ went up 9.45% in 2015 vs. 0.29% for the Total Market Index,
QQQ went up 7.10% in 2016 vs. 12.53% for the Total Market Index,
QQQ went up 32.66% in 2017 vs. 21.05% for the Total Market Index,
and Year to date, through March 11, 2018:
QQQ is up 11.76% vs. 4.54 for the Total Market Index
there you have it,
Robert
Yahoo Financial News posted a headline to an article claiming the drop in the DOW today was due to investors being nervous about the possibility of a tariff induced trade war. (I know. I know. It's Yahoo News.) Perhaps that is so. My current feeling is that trade war fears are overblown. Maybe I'm wrong. But even if I am wrong does that mean a trade war is something we can afford to avoid in the long run?
Last week Bob was ranting against steal/aluminum tariffs. He claimed tariffs never do any good. But I'm skeptical about that. If tariffs NEVER do any good then why have they been and continue to be imposed by many nations? Bob also cited the often reiterated doctrine that the Smoot/Hawley tariffs worsened the Great Depression. He stated or implied that this was the majority opinion among economists. Perhaps it is the majority opinion but that does not mean it is necessarily a correct opinion. It's easy enough to find writings from economists who disagree with that post mortem analysis. I am also skeptical that it is fair to equate the Smoot/Halwey tariffs on 20,000 different items with tariffs on only two metals.
My understanding is that Trump is talking steel/aluminum tariffs as a matter of national security; the logic being that a country that cannot produce from scratch it's own infrastructure, aircraft carriers, etc. is going to have huge national security problems. Bob, on the other hand, sounds like a guy who has a lot of faith in organizations like NAFTA and the WTO to be fair in their dealings with the USA. He apparently also has faith that certain of our past administrations made deals with other nations that best served and continue to best serve our national interests. I, on the other hand, have doubts about such things.
MK
There was a time when Bob did a Saturday and Sunday show, anybody else remember?
I recollect BB saying VTSMX was made up of approximately 70% US large cap, 20% US mid cap and 10% US small cap funds.
Would appreciate someone being able to confirm. Thanks.
.
Angie....You asked if Bob Brinker ever had a "bad purchase call."
The answer is many! I did a quick search of my files and found these that took place in 2008 and 2009 as the stock market relentless dropped - a total of 57%, top to bottom.
Brinker was issuing "attractive for purchase calls" all the way down - each one lower than the last as the market continued to drop right through his buy signal.
In Marketimer, he simply ignored the previous one and made a new ones.
Here's a list of each of his buy signals straight from Marketimer. Notice that FINALLY the month the market bottomed, he gave up entirely. (Imagine buying at 1400 in January 2008 on his advice.)
January 4, 2008, S&P @ 1411: Mid-1400's
Feb 10, 2008 S&P @ 1331: Low-1300's
Aug 5, 2008 S&P @ 1285: 1240 or less
Sept 2, 2008 S&P @ 1282: Low-to-mid 1200's
September 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)
January 2009 S&P @ 931: “ bear market bottom range of 750 to 850.
Feb. 2009 S&P @ 826: “low-to-mid 800’s.
March 5, 2009 S&P @ 696: waiting for a bottom and a test of that low. No DC or buy levels.
April 3, 2009 S&P @ 798: 676 benchmark low in. Short-term weakness is buying opportunity. He gave up giving specifics. S&P500 Target: 1000s to 1100s in next 12 to 18 months. (we got there in 5 months)
Stan: Check Vanguard or Morningstar for that info.
Honeybee, thanks for taking the time to detail all of the calls. I don't think anybody really understood what was happening during the 08 sell off. The smoke had to clear before even the experts understood what was going on. I remember someone I know had bought 3 properties and a lot with an older small home on it for 1 mil. I knew what they did for a living and I thought to myself, how is he qualifying for all these mortgages? Well, we all know now how they were qualifying, stated income. The property was in Florida so I was able to pull the mortgages online. He purchased it in 06 for 1,000,000. Got a first mortgage for 750,000. In 08, he got a second mortgage for 150k. In 09, he stopped paying on both mortgages and then the bank took it in 2010. Same scenario with the other properties. People were buying properties, at inflated prices, that they had no business buying, thinking the market would continue to go up & they'd sell it & make a quick buck. Then the barn door slammed.
A worthwhile exercise would be those who had a positive experience with the QQQ trade place with those who had a negative experience and argue with evidence supporting the opposing view.
Gabe
Stan: See https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approximating_total_stock_market
Depends on which funds you are using. At Vanguard you could use 81% S&P500 and 19% extended market to approximate the TSM. See above link for other possibilities.
Stan said...
"I recollect BB saying VTSMX was made up of approximately 70% US large cap, 20% US mid cap and 10% US small cap funds.
Would appreciate someone being able to confirm. Thanks."
++++++++++++++++++++++
Per Morningstar:
VTSMX is made up of approximately 72% giant cap plus large cap; 19% mid cap, and 9% small cap plus micro cap
Robert
.
Gabe....Do you know of anyone who had a "positive experience with the QQQ trade?"
Eighteen years of keeping track and documenting everything available about it, and I don't!
Angie said...Honeybee, thanks for taking the time to detail all of the calls. I don't think anybody really understood what was happening during the 08 sell off. The smoke had to clear before even the experts understood what was going on.
Hi Angie, if you are giving Bob a pass for not understanding what was going on during the 2008 sell off, I would like to give you my 2 cents. Bob did not tell listeners and people who pay him their money that he didn't understand the market. On the contrary, he claimed his magical timing models could identify attractive entry points and thus his listeners and subscribers would make money off his brilliance. As Honeybee stated above, he kept telling people to invest their money in a market in freefall. It was bad advice and you paid him for bad advice.
If he would have said he didn't understand what was going on (in the 2008 market) or told listeners to hold off investing until the smoke cleared then I would give him a free pass.
Honeybee said..."Here's a list of each of his buy signals straight from Marketimer. Notice that FINALLY the month the market bottomed, he gave up entirely. (Imagine buying at 1400 in January 2008 on his advice.)
-snip-
March 5, 2009 S&P @ 696: waiting for a bottom and a test of that low. No DC or buy levels.
April 3, 2009 S&P @ 798: 676 benchmark low in. Short-term weakness is buying opportunity. He gave up giving specifics. S&P500 Target: 1000s to 1100s in next 12 to 18 months. (we got there in 5 months)"
I wish I had had more money to follow Bob Brinker's recommendation to buy/dollar cost average in at S&P 500 1400 in January 2008 and done even more dollar cost averaging in all the way down after the panic sell-off began on September 29, 2008. Every dollar of that money, even the S&P 1400 level money, would have been going positive a minimum of little more than four years later or much sooner than that (not that terrible of a wait considering it was the biggest and therefore scariest market crash in our lifetimes). And by now, little more than ten years after the biggest and scariest market crash of our lifetimes, it would have banked a minimum of a 100% and as much as 312% in gains (not counting dividends).
But where Brinker really missed it in terms of at least indicating that we might be approaching the bottom and therefore the best buying opportunity was in apparently going along with the preferred Conservative Right notion of the day that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act signed and passed in late February 2008 was not "fiscal stimulus" enough to contribute significantly to finding a floor and starting to recover the massive losses in the market. In his March Marketimer, Brinker specifically states that it would take intervention in the form of fiscal stimulus (and monetary stimulus) to change the direction of the market yet he made no mention that one side of the political aisle had possibly done just that by passing the ARRA a couple of week earlier. That was the Marketimer where he could have and should have been more assertive about buying/dollar cost averaging in closest to the bottome considering the recent passage of that legislation. But he didn't.
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So gawd....You like the idea of a "market timer" advising you to not only remain fully invested all the way down, but to sink every last dollar you have into the market at 1400 on the S&P and ride it down to 676....adding every spare dime you get by DCA and watching it go down too.
Because only nine years later, you would be ahead.
Okay.......
I guess paying for that kind of advice works for you....
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Brinker has been an inflation-alarmist recently. Looks like things are still just fine:
Consumer prices rose in line with expectations, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Labor.
The consumer price index rose 0.2 percent from a month earlier, hitting the consensus forecast. The rise in prices was lower than the prior month, when the CPI rose 0.5 percent.
On an year-over-year level, prices rose 2.2 percent. That was also the consensus forecast.
Core inflation, which subtracts changes in volatile food and energy prices, was 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis and 1.9 percent compared with a year ago.
Reuters:
"Trump also said he was considering conservative commentator Larry Kudlow "very strongly" to become his next top economic adviser."
Kudlow? Why not Bobby?
Everyone (even illegal immigrants) would instantly become multi-millionaires or multi-billionaires!
Wall st waiting for its Fed.
Bob (not THAT Bob), LOL!
I think President Trump is looking for a dedicated person who will serve full-time (or likely much, much more).
Low-energy Bobby's 3 or 6 hours a month probably isn't going to get the job done.
Sorry to disappoint.
JC
A garbage Market!
Gabe
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Gabe...If you want to be helpful, posting actual market numbers would be preferred to just opinion.
Honeybee, considering the nature of the panic sell-off, that pertinent data was previously intentionally hidden or ignored by the rating agencies and that the September 29, 2008 panic trigger could not be known by Brinker or any other market watcher ahead of time, imo he made the best of a horrible market situation with those DCA recommendations "especially on weakness" all the way down to S&P 676. Although I don't know where the "last dollar and spare dime you have" part came in. I don't recall Bob Brinker ever recommending stock market investments on those terms. Maybe he did and I missed it.
If he had misread the panic sell-off as fundamental-based and likely to last years rather than a condition that could find a bottom and begin to turn around as quickly on a positive event as it plunged on a negative one, then recommending DCA might not have been the better option. But he didn't misread it that way. However, as I said, what he did misread in terms of finding the bottom in response to "fiscal stimulus" as he himself stated was likely necessary to turn things around in his March 2009 Marketimer statement, was that the meaningful stimulus he was looking for had just been signed and passed a couple of weeks prior to that Marketimer publication.
Some market watchers were recognizing that the weeks following the passage of the ARRA was likely a very good time to start buying back into the market again in a significant way, essentially identifying that legislation as contributing to establishing a bottom in the market, including then President Obama. But Bob Brinker wasn't among them. Still, I get why he was sticking with the recommendation to DCA instead of trying to identify a major Attractive For Purchase Alert bottom; because he knew the percentage of people in America who in the wake of a crashing stock market, crashing property values, massive job losses, etc. were in a position to have large sums of cash available to take advantage of a major Attractive For Purchase Alert was fairly tiny. And it isn't as though he had issued a sell call months earlier in order to have the dry powder available for such an Attractive For Purchase Alert anyway, as many here have pointed out many times.
On that last point, I don't know what could have or should have been Brinker's reasoning for issuing a sell call in January 2008 at S&P 1400 in order to have plenty of dry powder at the ready for the next Mother Of All Buying Opportunities just 13 months later, or any time during the next year or two for that matter. But if any other published/media accessible market "guru" did make that call at that time and for that reason, then that is the one who deserves the Market Timer Award of All Time. I have not heard of such a person though. Unless they made a habit of issuing major sell calls all during prolonged stock market rallies as well, that is.
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gawd...I'm not going to argue with you. However, I wrote and posted in January 2009:
Bob Brinker Sez Bottom is in (Again)
"......But don't forget that he has made several similar forecasts during this mega-bear market. Here are three examples. (February, June and October, 2008):
1) According to Peter Brimelow’s February 21, 2008 Marketwatch article, Bob Brinker said:
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"The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low........We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level." . "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
2) In Mark Hulbert's June 2, 2008, Marketwatch article, he wrote the following about Bob Brinker's stock market outlook:
"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested."
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[Honeybee EC:] Also, in the June 4, 2008 issue of Marketimer, Brinker said that since the March test of the lows: ".......a renewed uptrend has been underway, and we expect the market to trade with an upward bias until new record highs are achieved above the S&P 500 Index closing high of 1565.15 registered last October. Our S&P 500 Index price target remains in the 1600 range either late this year or in 2009."
Honeys Archived Beehive Buzz (now owned by Kirk Lindstrom)
the Hottiebee writes;
So gawd....You like the idea of a "market timer" advising you to not only remain fully invested all the way down, but to sink every last dollar you have into the market at 1400 on the S&P and ride it down to 676....adding every spare dime you get by DCA and watching it go down too.
Because only nine years later, you would be ahead.
Okay.......
I guess paying for that kind of advice works for you....
Why you tolerate this obvious shill is beyond me; he is as disingenuous as Da Brink.
I mean cripes, even his on-line name was likely selected as an affront to your professed religious beliefs.
Love,
tfb
It is humorous to read the common phrase of impossibility to time the market and then read so much data, info, and advice dedicated to the task. Same for the reality of watching index funds selloff with bad economic news. What to think? I'm gravitating to the notion that this time it's different folks are right. It's always different and yes, nobody knows.
The risk being out of market is higher than being in, given the dividend/earnings growth, economic growth, inflation, and company stock appreciation. Sure a few periods of history have given deep losses, such as economic recession and delayed recovery per government bungling within premise of man handling the economy (Keynesian).
One can manage risk or should I say increase your odds to avoid deeper losses. The tactic will probably increase your odds of avoiding higher earnings. But, avoiding loses is 2x better per the compounding effect of having more money over time. A 50% draw down will require a 100% gain to break even.
Interesting stuff read or heard this week- Why do we get such bad info from commercial media and experts? Some make a living with scare information as the static gains more clicks. Also, per my surprise what Brinker exhibits is gaining popularity. Our advice givers are more and more partisan. They do this as the effort will gain them more popularity within friends. Brinker does this to create his legacy. We have media that will award him for the effort. IMHO, the Left is very good at motivating partisans. Both negative and positive. CEO's fear not the Right, but will put in motion support for those that could do them harm.
We still have Goldilocks environment for investors. The main concern, fed over reacting. There is no age limit on bull market. It depends on economy. Most think '18 is good to go. The sky is falling folks think '19 will be the year of reckoning. Others see little concern of inflation, trade issues, and gradual interest hikes. This run could go on 4 years albeit at lower gains. How to time good financials? By staying out of stocks? Economist have now evaluated the Trump tariffs and understand they are not blanket. So, bad players will be punished and they are supportive of this action. All this talk of Smoot Hawley irrelevant and probably partisan.
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Dear TFB,
You are correct. And I know that his handle is intended to be an affront to my deeply held Christian faith.
However, not everything he writes get through, but as long as he doesn't overtly insult me or others here, I am willing to give him some latitude to "spin" for Bob Brinker.
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Don't be surprised if that green-eyed monster doesn't become even more furious:
Larry Kudlow will replace Gary Kohn as President Trump's Chief Economics Advisor.
Honeybee,
Re: Kudlow
That's wonderful news! Larry is a great guy, lots of smarts, etc. Didn't he guest host on Money Talk shows back in the day during Bobby's (many) absences?
The only possible problem I foresee - isn't Larry adamantly against tariffs? That might not work out so well, but I guess we shall see.
JC
Interesting Bio on L. Kudlow on Wikipedea
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Jerrod...I never believe anything I hear reported until it is confirmed by the President himself.
Yesterday while on his way to California, he indicated that Kudlow was high on the list of possible choices - and that Kudlow is now agreeable to the "fair trade" tariffs that Trump is imposing.
Another ugly day at the market! Stats are readily available at CNBC.
Gabe
Third Hour Alert: Alan Blinder weighed in on tariffs today on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal. Will Bob Brinker have his buddy on the 3rd hour sometime soon?
I gotta think a guy like Brinker knows that barring an act of God or the defiance of all odds he can't expect to time the market with great if any accuracy. He seems to revere John Bogle who notoriously espouses the futility of market timing. Yet, Bob is running a business of selling financial advice. He knows something about human nature. Most investors are hunting for that critical bit of information to give us the edge over the circumstances. Brinker capitalizes on that human tendency by throwing his prognostications into his overall financial advice.
Bogle's advice on investing isn't terribly exciting although I think it is wise.
MK
Great guy though he might be, as bad economic assessment and stock market calls by high profile media "experts" on both go, it is hard to beat those made by Larry Kudlow.
Larry Kudlow:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Kudlow
Kudlow firmly denied that the United States would enter a recession in 2007, or that it was in the midst of a recession in early to mid-2008. In December 2007, he wrote: "The recession debate is over. It's not gonna happen. Time to move on. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that's a minimum). The Bush boom is alive and well. It's finishing up its sixth splendid year with many more years to come". In a May, 2008 column entitled "'R' is for 'Right'", Kudlow wrote: "President George W. Bush may turn out to be the top economic forecaster in the country".
KUDLOW’S MONEY POLITICS
The Contrary View
By LARRY KUDLOW
September 3, 2008 1:51 PM
https://www.nationalreview.com/blog/kudlows-money-politics/contrary-view-larry-kudlow/
For those of us who prefer to look ahead, through the windshield, the outlook for stocks is getting better and better.
According to a report from the Central News Agency, the White House announced on the 14th that Larry Kudlow will become chairman of the White House National Economic Conference and become the White House’s chief economic advisor. His predecessor resigned after he refused to levy a tariff on steel and aluminum.
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Hung wong....
It is possibly true that Gary Kohn was not for President Trump's push for fair trade-tariffs for America.
However, he resigned only after the President gave him a push.
Here is what the President said about Larry Kudlow:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
4 hours ago
Larry Kudlow will be my Chief Economic Advisor as Director of the National Economic Council. Our Country will have many years of Great Economic & Financial Success, with low taxes, unparalleled innovation, fair trade and an ever expanding labor force leading the way! #MAGA
Trump made a great move in formally adding Kudlow to his team. The man is wicked smart, and I agree with his views about 99% of the time.
The only downside to Kudlow’s new job is that he will probably need to give up his podcast that is available every Saturday. I expect that Larry will keep plenty busy working for his new boss. But Kudlow’s comments and advice are roughly 1000% better than the recycled garbage coming from Brinker.
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gawd....So now we know where Bob Brinker gets his stock market timing advice.
I do not believe that President Trump has chosen Kudlow for his stock timing prowess. But what do I know?
Based on comments here this content will fall largely on deaf ears. It is certainly not my attention to waste my time in obviously futile attempts to change those minds. To the less close minded , I have listened to Kudlow as much as I could stomach him. He, IMHO, is just another trickle down cheerleader for his overly privileged class and everyone else be darned.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/new-trump-economist-kudlow-has-been-wrong-about-everything.html
Not Smiling
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So "Not Smiling" who exactly could the President have chosen that would have you smiling again?
Please give us a couple of recommendations.
Sorry but it is not my job to find and or give recommendations for US government staff. Besides, since I have zero power in that realm it would also be a major waste of my time.
(Moderator edited remaining comments)
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Then why waste my time and everyone's time with whining about Larry Kudlow in the first place?
Good going Honeybee. But I have a feeling you are just warming up.
https://goo.gl/4KU64B
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Mad as hell....I think you may be right. :)
I wanted to see what was at your link, but it's not clear.
There is only a list of various links.
From what I heard on one of his radio shows, Kudlow seems to believe growing our GDP is the answer to our growing debt problem. I'm all in favor of growing our economy. However, I am concerned that growing GDP without controlling (or better yet, decreasing) our national debt is to treat the symptom(s) of the problem and not the root cause(s). It seems to me given the usual tendencies of the economy to ebb and flow that at some point of an ebb we are going to encounter a debt servicing crisis.
Brinker says that no country pays or has paid off its sovereign debt. Yet he complains as I do about government overspending. Bob must think I'm rube because I'm one of those people who believes we should pay down our debt. Fine, I'm a rube. To me it boils down to a matter of will. As a nation we simply lack the intestinal fortitude to be financially responsible.
MK
The '08 recession caught everyone by surprise. It took a long time to understand the economic dynamics. GW economic policy was solid. Government mandates, not so good. The solutions of big government spending even more are not so good. The fed had to do most of the heavy lifting and that was a present to the stock market. Not so much for wage earners and those that pay their salary.
Kudlow is an excellent choice. He was an adviser and worked well with others. He is friendly and communicates well. Doesn't take himself too seriously and listens well. He is perfect. His economic supply-side ideas are spot on and why we have such a Goldilocks economy. He is the first to state that this isn't that difficult.
Honeybee,
That's weird - I tried it again and it works fine for me. (It is an image of a Snark Meter).
;-)
Geez,
I hope Gabe doesn't subscribe to MarketEdge / Market Recap! Looks like they had a bit of an OOPS today!
Market Recap (3/15/2018)
Index Close_______Day Chg___Day % Chg___YTD % Chg
NASDAQ 2747.33__ -4749.48___ -63.35____ -60.20
JC
MK: Growing the economy would, or should help us pay down the Federal debt by virtue of increased tax collections. We cannot trust Congress though, to devote the added tax revenue to reducing debt. They will find a way to justify spending any additional revenue because it is what they do.
We simply roll over Treasury bonds and add to the debt incrementally via deficit spending. "Kicking the can down the road," "Whistling past the graveyard," "The future will take care of itself." Choose a cliche. Congress could begin an effort to reduce the debt if they really wanted to. They don't. And that is what is discouraging to you, me and others I think. When are the millennials going to wake up and realize that they and their children are going to be hamstrung by taxes going to pay for entitlements and interest on the federal debt (but no real debt reduction).
Interesting posts by Gabe;
Anonymous gabe said...
"A worthwhile exercise would be those who had a positive experience with the QQQ trade place with those who had a negative experience and argue with evidence supporting the opposing view." A direct slap in the face to all the hard labor and research you've done Honey on the subject.
Then when you ask for markets numbers. This kick in the balls.
gabe said...
Another ugly day at the market! Stats are readily available at CNBC.
Asking me, let Gabe post only once a day.
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Harry...I like your idea. I'm going to go with it.
I don't believe that Gabe is so obtuse that he doesn't get my request to make his posts worthwhile or don't waste my time.
Gabe....From now on, you will be limited to one post a day - make it count. I'm not here to serve you.
BEWARE THOSE FOUR WITCHES!
From SeekigAlpha:
Stir the brew.
It's quadruple witching day, which refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock-index futures, stock-index options, single-stock futures and stock options, which can lead to higher volatility for markets and more trading volume.
The event happens four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - but this time around the S&P Dow Jones predicts the rebalancing could force $23.1B of trades, up from around $18.6B a year ago.
JC
Hah got my invoice from Bob today. I'm in a bad mood. I'm thinking about putting a stamp on it and letting Bobbie know what I think of his last guest and Bobbies laziness. Is it worth the 50 cents? or what ever a stamp is these days.
BTW
What do you want me to tell him?
JC old buddy: So what happened to the witch disaster thing that was supposed to happen today? My portfolio was up slightly, +.03%.
That guest he had on last week: Larry Kotlikoff is nothing more than a pawn for the never-Trumper fake news media. He called President Trump stupid, insane, a tyrant, and recommended impeachment over and over during his interview. All because he disagrees with Trump's tariff strategy?
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Note about (and to) Gabe:
Gabe has sent me an email stating that he will no longer post on this blog.
I feel that I have been fair with him, but he clearly does not like the "one per day" rule that I made for him.
I will not publish any comments about him.
Good-bye and good luck with your horses, Gabe.
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Jeff Borders....Good description of the guest and clearly, that was okay with Bob Brinker. Maybe he even enjoyed broadcasting the malicious attacks on the President - and thought it would keep his own hands clean.
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Seattledoc....Tell Brinker that Honey would like to know how it feels to now officially belong to the hate-Trump Fake News media.
Seattledoc - tell Brinker that anyone who googles his name will see Honey’s excellent blog, which tells the truth about him, on the first page immediately below his website. Also known as, Fake News followed by Real News.
Kudlow's podcast today -- about his personal call from the President.
Blogger Bluce said...
"JC old buddy: So what happened to the witch disaster thing that was supposed to happen today? My portfolio was up slightly, +.03%."
Bluce,
Well, the increased volume component occurred, but the volatility component decreased from the following day.
Very difficult to "read" this market. I am still buying. No losses in any positions YTD, but am not realizing the gains I had anticipated. Using bracket orders more frequently than I used to.
JC
JC: "Blogger Bluce" . . . ? LOL, I'm glad you can pronounce that cuz I can't. Although the Southern Comfort probably isn't helping.
Fully invested Bl Bl's 35/65 port:
YTD: +.74%
1 year: +8.91%
That Schwab Total Stock Market Fund (SWTSX) has an initial purchase of only $100. And any additional buys can be as low as $1. The 0.03 expense ratio is awesome.
Common talk of Keynesian economist back 8 years was the same as this guest. Were in the intellectual intangible economy. The internet Google economy. That we should not be surprise on the demise of durable goods manufacturing. This supported the idea of high tax and high burden regs as the process will push "free" economy. Meaning sunshine and wind powering laptops with ever new ways to share and lower living costs. This is the live off the land and accept low income payments "free" lifestyle.
Problem was were really in the 4th generation of Industrial Economy. This is the digital economy with robots, software, automation, etc. This economy is ripe for U.S. dominance and fits within high tech solutions. Our biggest asset is free economy and high entrepreneurial spirit. We invent more than others. We should always push risk taking and thinking out of the box. Note this is antithetical to government control.
Note the above comment on 4th generation of Industrial Revolution and combine that fact with U.S. domination of high tech. We own high tech. In addition we are witnessing a rebirth of more efficient government control and tax structure. Business is at all time positive/bullish rating. Every day news of yet another company investing in U.S. for long term. We lead the world in energy production and expected to do so for foreseeable future. Even leadership in the green sector such as biofuel and the rest.
So, can one afford to be out of stocks? To hitch up your wagon to such a growing economy? The advice from last week (non Brinker) was stocks, but bonds won't hurt you if holding for a couple of years to regain full value. Yes, there may still be a testing of lows, but after another month of sideways movement we will have good appreciation. The dollar is stable and regaining..good. Inflation is low. Future inflation risk is low given the dampening effect of international trading and more and better financial control than in the 70s. Government is more than willing to suck money out of the economy (kill growth). Federal Reserve is always a variable. No threat of recession in foreseeable future. If in some event we lost control of inflation this is far and above worse than recession. Just like the fear of deflation in recent history. This stuff has a long stubborn correction cycle. Risk is low.
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