September 3, 2017....Bob Brinker is NOT LIVE on Moneytalk today. As usual, no announcement...... (comments welcome)
When Brinker broadcasts repeat monologue and spliced together old calls, I do not post show summaries. Have a nice Labor Day holiday!
Radio Station
KKOB770
77 comments:
I could tell immediately due to the change in audio, it just didn't sound live
Yes, it was really obvious today....
Hope you have a safe and happy holiday weekend!
Mike, what do you mean by 'the change in audio'?
Brinker is probably glad for the Labor Day weekend for two reasons. It's a day off for him after a long run of programs and he also doesn't have to talk about the jobs report which showed that another 36K manufacturing jobs were created. There have now been 155K manufacturing jobs created since President Trump was elected. This doesn't quite fit Brinker's narrative since he claimed manufacturing is dying a slow death due to globalization and automation.
The sound didn't sound like it was live and the sound was different from previous live programs. Also, I detected a change in the sound when he first came on, the first few words had a different tone than the rest of the words.
Bob deserves some time off like all of us do, our host seems to resent this by saying "no announcement". And, it's LABOR DAY Weekend.
From prior comments:
gabe said...
AAPL.......a record close! Bob would have a fit if I telephoned and said that I owned 9% of my portfolio in AAPl!
September 2, 2017 at 12:59 PM
gabe said...
MikeE.....Well, I am in a similar predicament! But then I suspect others would not mind being at this place. In a way, I should be grateful given the fact that I can hedge my position with respect to taxes with a stable of horses.
September 3, 2017 at 9:04 AM
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Gabe, I don't think Bob would "have a fit" if you called him and mentioned your AAPL position. MOF, I thing you and Bob would be simpatico. If both you and Bob submitted to Genotyping I am certain that the Clinician would find an extremely high (off the chart) value of the Braggadocio Maximus gene in both samples.
That said, here is the "worst" that could happen if you tell Bob about your AAPL position and your stable of horses:
Bob would likely ask: "Gabe, do you consider yourself an investor or a Professional Gambler?"
JD
I used to enjoy Bob back in the old days when he was on Sat and Sundays.
He's a jerk and dishonest. Tell the audience your not on live. Tell the audience about Jr.
Take calls that are interesting and provide answers that give the audience real information.
I'm a CPA and owned business's in three states and have rented apartments and commercial for 50 years. He used to give great real estate and business advice. No more. A dishonest jerk.
klashelle said...
Bob deserves some time off like all of us do,
What about the 15+ Sundays that were repeats?
What about the days Monday through Saturday?
Add to that he used to do Saturday and dropped that.(but still charges the same for Money Talk On Demand).
.
Mr. Klashelle...While you are a very nice looking man, you clearly do not know your "host" at all.
I hope you will stick around long enough to get acquainted with what I resent and what I do not resent.
I fully expected Brinker to take today off, and do not resent it at all. I in no way indicated that I did resent it - only that it wasn't announced (like most other talk show hosts do).
What I do resent, just as I indicated, is that he NEVER has, and never will, be honest with listeners.
Brinker is a very smart man and knows full well that most listeners are deceived and believe that he is there live. He also knows that it might be a bit more difficult to SELL re-runs via Moneytalk on demand if people knew that on average they are only getting 3 new shows per month.
And who wants to subscribe to Marketimer if they think he is just one step from complete retirement? First he cut out Saturday shows, then he cut his Sundays back to an average of 3 shows per month.
Gabe, for what it is worth I certainly didn't see your statement as bragging. Mine surely wasn't.
Thanks Honeybee, I enjoyed your prospective but I don't feel he's being dishonest. That's where we differ. I look at it as, it's his show and he can run it any way he likes because all of us have the choice to not listen or change the station. Also, we're getting it for "free" on the radio and those who subscribe to Money Talk on Demand know exactly what they're paying for, I do and I'm fine with his time off. My motto is, if I can learn one new thing per show I've gotten my moneys worth. This includes reruns too. Lastly, many seem to really resent Bob, what I don't understand is why are they listening to him if they feel this way. Secretly I think they really do respect him but they can't bring themselves to admit it...sad! Honeybee I don't include you in this crowd.
Honeybee said: When Brinker broadcasts repeat monologue and spliced together old calls, I do not post show summaries. Have a nice Memorial Day holiday!
Honeybee,
Many thanks to you and the Blog Research Team for all the Fresh information you give us through the year!
(pssst: didn't you mean Labor Day?)
:-)
Well....Mike, at this stage of my life, I do not see myself as a braggart. And so, I agree with your comment.
JC: As I have said previously, I am an owner of thoroughbreds and not a gambler.
Gabe
Honey - You are right on! I am seeking the truth and I don't like it when people intentionally try to deceive me. It is sad that Mr Brinker does not have the courage to tell me that his show is not live.
.
Bob (not THAT Bob)....Thank you for catching my mistake.
Guess I'm just a little behind. LOL!
Why didn't BB know about IRS form 8606 that accounts for non-deductible IRA contributions? To his credit the call screener took the call from the CPA that corrected Bob's omission.
Gabe: Somehow I don't think BB would take you to task for having 9% of your portfolio in Apple stock. He may give you a mild warning were you to speak on the phone, on the show. This he would do to stay in keeping with his 4% rule for stock and his general aversion to owning individual stocks.
That said, I would be really surprised if BB himself, did not hold Apple stock. He likes technology and innovative stuff. This I know from the many 3rd hour guests he's had some focused on Apple and some on Steve Jobs.
klashell: When most other talk shows state that the show is a repeat or a "best of," the fact that Bob Brinker does not, makes his lack of transparency stand out. When callers tell him they subscribe to HIS fixed income newsletter and he fails to mention that his son is the editor, he takes credit by omitting to set things straight.
Thought he was live. Have not listened to Bob in a long time.
US GDP grew 3% in the second quarter -- here's the Bureau of Economic Analysis press release:
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
On a program earlier this year, didn't Bob do a long monologue about how a sustained 3% GDP growth rate was "fantasy"?
Gabe,
Brinker might be more jealous than upset with you about Apple. I guess we all remember when Brinker said he sold his position in Apple. We will never know if he owned the individual stock or was merely referring to the heavy Apple weighting in the QQQ shares. Either way it looks like Brinker sold prematurely.
BB once commented on politicians claiming to pay off the national debt as fantasy talk by modern day huff and puff politics (my paraphrase). While in his context true, but his premise of what politicians are stating is false. BB was just making a cheap shot.
The Kudlow show on economics, tax, health care, and stocks all pointing in the direction of vastly improved economy. Politics aside as there is no personal benefit within that discussion, but one must pay close attention to the power of politics as I believe this is the primary driver to the countries wealth. This CIC is making a difference. The best part is coming from a slow economy and dampening effect for over 8 years. Meaning, the economy has stored energy waiting to be released.
One economist greatly discounted fed reserve policy as basically rounding error to economy. The general economy is the 200# gorilla in the room. One big factor is the regulation industry comparing last administration to current. The act of attempting to control economy from DC. Currently, through Executive action some 800 regs done away with.
Our tax policy may be close to the worst within our competing international economies. Much good can come from improving tax structure. Much benefit, possible, for the average wage employee and retiree. Also, very popular opinion that we truly need to reform. BB chimed in on this once and claimed more fantasy of current snake oil politicians that fantasise going against lobbyist and DC deep state wishes. Yes, lobbyist will be loaded for bear to make fed income taxes complicated as there is big money to be made in financial and tax advice. Also, real estate will fight their tax privileges as bankers and agents can hype consuming public into over spending.
I don't think it is a good time to be 50% bonds.
How about reviving Stere Forbes Flat Tax? Simplicity and fairness is what makes it work for me. Just sent in my 3rd Q Estimated Tax and my CPA really had to work hard in its completion given the market's performance and my stable's better than expected run.
After all is said and done......I'm paying well close to 60% Fed and State. HELP1
Gabe
Addemdum: Make it 50%...A typo!
Gabe
PS Feels like 60%
HB: Brinker is a very smart man
You lost me right there :-). Seriously, BB is a very clever marketing guy I'll grant that but he never struck me as very bright (nor even overly educated, financially). Otherwise he probably wouldn't make such whoppers on the air. He does know the basics & has been pretty dang lucky (due to his bull-market era and temperament). As Buffet says, brains aren't what deliver returns but emotional stability, consistent behavior, and honestly/credibility. Er, strike that last one!
BTW, here are the following market timing metrics from IQT. Within the hold zone for dividend investors, the selloff helped (Date; Dow Yld <2.2%; UV <17%; OV/UV >2):
1-Sep-17; 2.30%, 17.2%, 56/40 = 1.40
15-Aug-17; 2.28%, 16.3%, 57/38 = 1.50
1-Aug-17; 2.28%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.63
15-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.5%, 58/36 = 1.61
1-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.62
BB used to use substitute guest hosts when he wasn't live. Can he not find substitute hosts any more?
BB used to have substitute guest hosts when he wasn't there. I wonder what happened to them??
MK shouldn't that UV be greater than 17% for hold position?
Gabe and high taxes- It does make investing much easier in tax free accounts. Also, for those in ETFs and taxed accounts check out those robo advisors. I read that Betterment is good on saving 1% off tax bill. They charge .25% to .15% for it. Some claim this is the next big wave in improving returns. Avoiding taxes with these devices.
I do see an incredible economy ahead with all the talent and invention headed to U.S. future. We need only cut loose this energy and forget the Marxist ideals. The Founding Fathers had it right. Better ways to help society outside the heavy hand of government controls. We do know much good can be accomplished by our government forces, but this often results in always reaching for more easy solutions.
Wonder how the Nkorea actions will affect market? I have a lot of cash temporarily sitting on sideline, maybe a good thing to hold a bit longer?
Personally, I see September as being the worst month for equities. Perhaps, a 5% correction. Having cash on the sideline is a good thing!
If the correction mentioned above occurs..I would like to pick up the pieces.
Gabe
gabe said...
AAPL.......a record close! Bob would have a fit if I telephoned and said that I owned 9% of my portfolio in AAPl!
September 2, 2017 at 12:59 PM
gabe said...
Personally, I see September as being the worst month for equities. Perhaps, a 5% correction. Having cash on the sideline is a good thing!
If the correction mentioned above occurs..I would like to pick up the pieces.
September 5, 2017 at 8:02 AM
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Looking at $SPX during the month of September, historically it tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses.
20 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.9%
5 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.2%
Looking at gabe's AAPL during the month of September, historically it also tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses (or) minor gains.
20 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -1.0%
5 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is +0.1%
There are many, many current "negatives" to be considered when investing, but (prior to today) "the market" seemed to be ignoring most if not all of them. As a result, a buying frenzy has occurred and many sectors, industries and individual stocks are approaching "overbought status", in "overbought status" or in extreme "overbought status".
It would be foolish to predict how this month will perform. As THAT Bob often says, "we will know in the fullness of time."
JC
JC: If you have the time and inclination, could you run the following...as you did with AAPL. I own all 3.
1. GOOGL
2 AMZN
3 MFST
I would appreciate it!
Gabe
Bob, great question on the guests. Bill Flanigan was a favorite for
a few years but he passed away some years ago. Not sure why
Brinker doesn't have a guest anymore but I am sure several of
our fellow bloggers will have some sarcastic comments to make.
.
About why Brinker no longer has guest-hosts:
I can't say for sure, but I'd guess that he makes more money having Jr splice all those old calls and monologues together. Yo, "Bob," was that sarcastic enough for you?
Brinker used to have a couple of women that we all had a lot of fun talking about - then he had Tom Vacar, the San Francisco guy, for awhile. Tom is a very nice guy, but what he knows about investing could be held in a thimble.
I'm sure that all of those fill-ins expected some kind of compensation....
Slammed today!
gabe
My 45/55 portfolio was down a whopping 0.1% today.
Yawn.
… and our next caller is Waiting, you’re on MoneyTalk.
Hi Bob, been an avid reader of MarkeTimer until our local library stopped receiving copies, probably over a dozen or so years ago. Had been listening to MoneyTalk to Go, until I realized you no longer worked Saturday afternoons, yet I didn’t notice a 50% reduction in what you charged, so I budget-cut that over-priced expense. I noticed that when you take a “well deserved day off” from your Sunday shows, I noticed you no longer have guest speakers like the folksy Bill Flanagan (R.I.P.) or those two women, Lynn Jimenoz being one of those. Now only previously broadcast spliced-together callers’ Q and A and old commentary.
… and your question Waiting?
My retired friends and myself, on behalf of our little town of Godot, want to ask you, should we continue to stick with the short duration, low-quality bond funds you recommended for us amidst the “taper tantrum” in the first half of ’13? We have been taking a drubbing on the total return of these 3 bond funds, not in small measure to their expense ratios of .70%, 1.04% and .88%. Considering that the Fed has only raised interest rates 1% since the beginning of ’09 and not likely to raise rates again until sometime in 2018, should we continue to market-time what the Fed will do and when they will do it?
Waiting... Is it like “a broken watch is right twice a day”?
Bob… Yes, a broken watch is right twice a day!
Bob… I think you answered your own question Waiting and can go to the head of the class today! Another fine question deftly fielded here today on MoneyTalk, this time from Waiting for Godot.
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Note to "Herb": Now you knew when you sent those very funny comments that I could not publish them....
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Dear Waiting:
After I can stop laughing, I am going to see if I can come up with a way to put your comments in a "communique" and put it on the front page.
Brinker has read several "communiques" and I'm sure he would read this one too if he had the chance.
Jester: As my bond funds had a good day yesterday, I looked up what the benchmark 10 year Treasury rates had done recently. See here.
YTD . . . . -.0.4%
1 year. . . +0.5%
5 years . . +0.2% (roughly)
Unfortunately for Bobby, interest rates are not predictable and even when they do change, all bond funds do not necessarily change by a simple mathematical calculation.
Bluce: Appreciated the link you posted on the historic to current day yield of the 10 year treasury. Sept. '81 was very good @ 15.8% as were bank C.D.s during that era. Remember taking advantage of those no risk rates back in the day!
BB likes to use sage quotes below his masthead in Marketimer. Don't know if he got around to using the following one:
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Market went down in the last half hour spoiling a reasonable recovery from yesterday. Modest upturn.
Gabe
Well Well....the president dealt with the Dems re: 3 month deal on the debt and relief to the Texas victims of the hurricane at the dismay of the GOP and Paul Ryan!
Gabe
Jester: Yeah, I had forgotten about those days back then.
I was too busy doing things that young men do anyway, and investing wasn't one of them!
Trees: MK shouldn't that UV be greater than 17% for hold position?
No, have to have all 3 indicators cross over to get out. Like BB, the default is to stay in. And the Dow yield is the big one, has to go below 2.2%, and it's still going strong. Companies are making lots of money (the boring dividend blue-chips are, not the FANG speculation guys).
"Crossing the aisle" on issues by Trump, might be an important tactic to get things accomplished. Good move!
Gabe
Smile said last week, "BTW I did buy some qqq's on Bob's advice back in 2000 but I waited and averaged in at better lower prices. I still own about 340 shares with a 2 bagger return approaching a triple...So I guess I'd be ticked off too if I lost money following Bob's advice... Fortunately I am not in that camp... Blaming Bob for free advice is just silly in my eyes...
On behalf of all readers, I want to congratulate Smile for being the only person who made money on the QQQ bulletin.
Also, let me point out some facts, so the readers don't get confused.
Bob sent out a special bulletin in Oct, 2000. His followers were 65% equities 35% cash at the time. Told us to put 30% to 50% of cash immediately into QQQ at $82 per share. (You didn't do that, you went against what he said and waited ) If you were very conservative he said to put in only 20-30%.
He said this was a short term opportunity trade of 2 to 4 months. (you didn't do this either, you held it for 17 years so far). Are you sure you follow his NOT FREE advice?
He said we could expect quick gains in excess of 20% in 2 to 4 months. We lost 70 % of our money in a little over 4 months. QQQ = $25.90 per share in March 2001. Thats not a typo, from ($82 down to $25.90) a 70 percent loss.
Again, congrats to SMILE for being the smartest person in the room. I would argue that you really didn't take any of his advice so he deserves NO credit from you.
Lastly Smile also said " I bought on 3/9/09 did you?
Im not sure why you included this as Bob never said anything on 3/9/09. He was very quiet that day. If I was a subscriber to his newsletter then, I had no money left to invest, because he already had told listeners to put their money into the stock market months prior to that opportunity. (like the QQQ event)_
Not sure why I ever listened to Bob, from now on I will listen to only you. You have magical insight, unicorn strength. Please start a newsletter and sign me up !
I am the Ghost of Bob
Agree with Gabe
Perhaps the RINOS will learn from Trump; when you accomplish nothing you will probably lose the next election.
Also expecting at least a 5% correction in September for whatever it is worth.
Appreciate your efforts HB and take care.
An up and down session so far. Market gyrations. Fed personnel change and proposed personnel changes anticipated. What an interesting market going forward. A bunch of legislative actions before end year? Who says we are not "living in interesting times"
Four horses going this weekend. The Stable holding its own!
Gabe
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Dear Ghost of Bob...I thought I was the only human being alive that knew ALL of those accurate facts about Bob Brinker's actual history.
Thank you for laying them all out so succinctly....
All I would add is that actually on 3/9/09, Brinker had thrown in the towel on trying to find the market bottom - after calling bottoms all the way down.
In the March 2009 issue of Marketimer, he wrote that several big issues would have to develop or fall in place before the bottom would be reached.
The bottom was reached just a few days after that Marketimer went out to subscribers.
Ghost of Bob:
I think you have a typo. Bob's followers were actually 35% equities, 65% cash in Oct 2000 (not 65/35). Just wanted to clarify this so readers don't get confused on how much cash was available for the QQQ trade. Those who followed Bob's QQQ advice exactly put a ton of money into those losing QQQ's.
Fundamentals are causing the Market to see red!
Gabe
Did Bob make any kind of call to get back into equities in early March of 2009?
My memory says, "no" but I could be wrong.
Biker, thank you for seeing my typo.
In January 2000 Bob told subscribers to move 60% of portfolios to cash. In August, he moved another 5% to cash. 65% CASH 35% Stock. He told us to wait for instructions on how to use these cash reserves.
Two months later subscribers received these instructions via a SPECIAL BULLETIN. The secret instructions were to ACT IMMEDIATELY and buy QQQ in anticipation of a 2 to 4 months COUNTER TREND RALLY.
frankj, etc.: Bob and March '09 -- hopefully Honey can verify this, but my memory is that HE NEVER EVEN MENTIONED anything about a bear market until months after the above date. And even then, it was just a cursory comment and he NEVER admitted that he totally missed the biggest bear since the '30s.
It was muddied up and buried in the memory hole, just like all his other missteps.
This was the turning point for me when I realized that neither he, nor anyone else, can forecast markets; and we have 4.5 years of proof -- back to early 2013 -- that he (nor anybody else) can time interest rates either.
A bit of a turnaround!
Gabe
Has anyone heard anything about Dan G. lately? He's such a knowledgeable and kind person. I do hope that he and Annie are alright.
.
To those who have been discussing Bob Brinker calls in 2009, here is exactly what he said March 5, 2009 in Marketimer - just days before the market bottomed:
March 5, 2009 Marketimer: Page 3, Paragraphs 3 and 4:
The process of establishing a major bear market bottom can extend over a period of several months, as we saw in 2002-2003.Clearly, the process of registering the final bottom I this bear market has been relentless, which has rendered our effort to date unsuccessful. This is, by far, the most difficult stock market we have ever seen. This is only the second time since the end of World War II that the year-over-year decline in the S&P 500 Index has exceeded 35%. The other occurrence, in the fourth quarter of 1974, was also accompanied by a very severe recession.
Due to the fact that the November 20, 2008 S&P 500 Index closing low failed to hold during the testing process, we believe a new bottoming process will be necessary in order to put an end to the bear market. This means that in order to set the stage for a sustainable market advance, we need to see a sequence of events consisting of (a) the establishment of an initial closing low; (b) a short-term rally; (c) a test of the area of the initial closing low on reduced selling pressure. Going forward, we expect the combination of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy measures, and initiatives to improve the health of the banking system, to favorably affect the economy.
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Frankj....I will do some further research on Brinker's calls later that year.
But just at a glance, I see that in January and February of 2009, just before the market bottomed at 676 in March, he was saying that the bear market had made a "final bottom" in the 750 to 850 range.
Is there anyone here using Morningstar's xray portfolio tracker? If so, I am curious as to how you are using and benefiting from this? I am trying to see if others find this useful and if so how. Below is my take on this.
I like the xray feature stock intersection as it gives top stocks you own and percentage of your portfolio and breaks down your ownership of the specific holding as to which funds own the stock and your outright ownership of the stock. E.G. my top holding is MSFT followed by INTC (unfortunately), FB, LUV, with AAPL and AMZN rounding out the top 10. This gives me the opportunity to see if I want to change my % ownership % of a particular stock which I might do with Intel if they continue to underperform.
Also helpful is under Tracker > fundamentals it shows a breakdown of each of your holdings and shows visually the style box. So for example if I'm wanting my portfolio to lean toward growth I can pick through the various positions I hold that do not comport to the growth vision and decide if I want to keep or discard that position.
My jury is still out on the my performance summary which shows graphically how you have done against a benchmark you can select, and also table views of performance. It is the trailing total return Annualized which I question the validity of. It appears to be in error and in conflict with "my views" where I have selected as my view 2 categories for 3 5 and 10 yr % return which I think are also annualized return %'s.
For example my view #2 shows my 5 year return % at 15.2% which is great; the rule of 72 says my assets double in roughly 4.73 years (72/15.2). I also confirmed this figure within 1% using my tracking xcel spreadsheets. The beef I have is when I compare this data to the "performance" tab trailing 5 year annualized shows me with a 9.2% return. Jury is in and I just decided to ignore the performance tab except the graph which shows me beating the benchmark S&P. If anyone can think of why this possible discrepancy exists let me know.
Also again if you have any other uses for the morningstar tracker please share.
smile
Smile: Yes, I use the Portfolio tracker and X-Ray for several portfolios, one of which is a non-profit I do volunteer work for.
I have used the intersection feature in one case to demonstrate that we had virtually no overlap of individual equities among our equity funds. (Which is what we intended). For a different portfolio that I was asked to look at, I used it to demonstrate there was considerable overlap among equity mutual funds. This led to a simplification plan on the part of the investor.
I like the comparison it gives to the market sectors of the SP500 index. Again, useful for board members or individuals who want this comparison.
It analyzes your fees and tells you if you are above or below some "average" portfolio with similar holdings.
I don't use the performance tracker because most all the funds in various portfolios have dividends and capital gains reinvested. While you can put these purchases into the tracker to get accurate performance numbers, I don't want to get bogged down with it. Accurate performance numbers I get from the custodian of the funds.
MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL up in a down market! AAPL down slightly!
Made a few bucks!
Gabe
frankj,
Thank you.
I just played with the select a view feature (expenses fees) and found it useful. Stock style and asset allocation were also useful views. I never noticed this select a view before you mentioned it and always viewed it as Overview. Very cool.
I concur on performance tab re: not automatically accounting for dividends cap gains and probably splits which is perplexing since the my view % return seems to more accurately reflect actual return %; and also re: not using this feature.
smile
The bottom was called on Tuesday March 10, 2009 The Call by the late Mark Haines.
Did Bob give that high of an allocation on the short term qqq buy signal? I remember him scolding a woman who called in a couple years after and Bob scolding her for going overboard on the qqqs. Does anyone have the original buy signal? I think I was 5%.
HB I thought what the hell. When I read the posts I look out my window for a full moon.
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Here is the list of the "attractive for purchase" buy-signals that Brinker made as the market went into the megabear of our life in 2008, and ended in March 2009. Each time he gave one, the market just went lower - so he just gave a lower one.
January 4, 2008, S&P @ 1411: Mid-1400's
Feb 10, 2008 S&P @ 1331: Low-1300's
Aug 5, 2008 S&P @ 1285: 1240 or less
Sept 2, 2008 S&P @ 1282: Low-to-mid 1200's
September 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)
January 2009 S&P @ 931: “ bear market bottom range of 750 to 850.
February 2009: “low-to-mid 800’s.
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Herb and all,
I can't post photos here or I could post a photo of Bob Brinker's "Act Immediately" Bulletin - WITH CASH RAISED FROM MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIOS earlier in the year-2000. Some people put their retirements at risk!
I transcribed this directly off the bulletin - verbatim:
• Oct-16-2000
11:35AM
.
"Bob Brinker's MARKETIMER
.
SUBSCRIBER BULLETIN
FROM MARKETIMER
.
MARKETIMER is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 Index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2-4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point.
.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for MARKETIMER subscribers seeking potential short-term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
.
We recommend MARKETIMER subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also, we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.
.
MARKETIMER will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions, and, if necessary, in follow up bulletins.
.
We recommend subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation act immediately.
.
P.O. Box XXX/ Irvington, NY 10533/ phone: 914-XXX-2655/ Editor: Robert J. Brinker"
A piece by Mark Hulbert in the WSJ a few days ago discussed the end of bull markets and the end of bear markets. The gist of it was the bull market tends to roll over in stages. For example, one sector like small caps may hit its peak months before the large caps do.
He said bear markets tend to have an more definite point where they end and the recovery begins.
frankj: Yes...very informative!
Gabe
All three (3) major indices down for the week! Not by much!
Hooray! We had a winner this afternoon. A decent purse $10,500.....60% to the winner!
Gabe
What would your stock/bond/fixed portfolio value be if you never listened to Bob Brinker?
I think I'd be mostly in bank CDs or other fixed investments.I think I'd have 1/3-1/2 of my total I have now.
He might be shady in some aspects but gives good fundamental tools to invest with.
Herb: Ditto! Shady? Perhaps, oblique.
Gabe
Herb: What would your stock/bond/fixed portfolio value be if you never listened to Bob Brinker?
Well, mine would have probably been higher because while Bob taught me about VTSM & TIPS I might have started to read real investors like Graham earlier had BB not been a distraction it took me a long time to get rid of.
But maybe not. One of BB greatest achievements is his wide exposure to non-educated folk like myself at the time. That's his whole deal. His worst fault is his trying to sell something he doesn't have (market timing and economic knowledge). But he did gave me two key pieces of info I'll be forever grateful for when I was young: TIPS and VTSM and index investing.
Still more chum with that Free Lunch? Update from Sept. 2, 2017 original post.
With regard to the Free Lunch seminars, all you have to remember is what the sponsors call the attendees: Plate Lickers.
I think the Sept 10 show is featuring Rerun Robert...
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