STOCKS....BB comments....These are the Dog Days of August....trading volume is usually lower than average....so far this month, the market has traded sideways with volatility benign.
Honey EC: In the August issue of Marketimer, Brinker still recommends dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market - and all model portfolios are fully invested.
US DOLLAR VS BRAZIL, RUSSIA OR CHINA CURRENCY.... Caller Michael in San Rafael wanted to know if it was possible for the dollar to no longer be the world currency. Brinker said "not in our lifetime" because no one would want to put their money in those country's currencies.
JOBS REPORT.....BB said the July jobs report was very good - 209,000 new jobs in July - with no revisions from past months. Wages have increased.
Jim sent these comments that add a lot of important data that BB "forgot" to mention:
Jim has left a new comment on your post "August 6, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, Stocks, B...":THANKS TO DRAHME, here are Brinker's comments on the jobs report.
In the month of July there were +16,000 manufacturing jobs created. Manufacturing jobs have now increased in 7 of the past 8 months. I think Brinker failed to mention this when he was giving the details of the jobs report. He also never mentions when new factories opening in the U.S. such as Foxconn, an electronic supplier for Apple which recently announced a plant in Wisconsin. Just like the mainstream media Brinker does not like to mention facts that don't fit his narrative.
NO RECESSION ON THE RADAR.... In the August issue of Marketimer, Brinker reviewed the Five Root Causes of a Bear Market, and is estimating 2017 GDP growth between 2% and 2.6%. Based on a price/earnings ration range of 17 to 18 times operating earnings in a low inflation economy, he believes this provides the potential for the S&P 500 Index to trade into the mid-2500s going forward.
TOPIC OF THE DAY: HYPOTHETICAL TAX CHANGES.....Brinker devoted most of the monologues to speculating about what Congress might do when they come back to work next month - and possibly begin working on tax reform. And almost all of the callers stayed on the same topic.
Honey EC: I will not waste your time or mine covering his ideas about hypotheticals that Congress might do regarding tax changes. Brinker makes it very clear that he views all tax proposals through the prism of John Maynard Keynes - and certainly has no respect for Milton Freidman.
HOWEVER, THANKS TO DRAHME, DECIDE FOR YOURSELF: here is the audio from the opening monologue.
BRINKER'S EMBARRASSINGLY SOCIALIST COMMENT....Caller Ken from Iowa asked why Congress would consider cutting taxes on the 1% of people who own 47% of the nation's wealth.
Brinker answered: "Because they are not taking income inequality into consideration."
Honey sez the following to Mr. Brinker:
1. Net worth does not correlate to INCOME.THANKS TO DRAHME, audio clip of what's coming out next week and some discussion about deflation.
2. Those who make the most income (who may or may not have a large net worth) pay the VAST majority of the taxes.
3. Any time, anyone is allowed to spend their own money, rather than have it stolen by the government, much of that money will stimulate the economy and create jobs.
DUE TO FAMILY ACTIVITIES, FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST SUMMARY IS NOT AVAILABLE
Brinker's guest author was Brian Merchant: "The Secret History of the iPhone."
Honey EC: The guest and Brinker talked a lot about the hazards of driving while texting - actually, it is deadly! And how ridiculous it is to see young people run into posts and fall in ditches while texting. Also, it's very sad to see families sitting together and all looking at their iPhones.
Radio Station
KKOB770
54 comments:
Bob's really been on top of everything during the first 1/2 hour!
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Chris....do I detect a touch of sarcasm?
I'm starting to wonder if I can even find anything that fits under the title of my summary to write about.
I know for certain that readers don't want to come here to read about politics.
Especially Brinker's version of politics.
What MikeE said!
I disagree folks, tax reform is important for the markets. The argument for rally was growth coming out of tax reform. da Brink is just saying if rev. neutral tax reform is a quagmire and if it does pass marginal impact on growth.
I am just hoping that the expansion in stock prices is due mainly to great earnings not speculation on tax reform. This is only reason I am still in the market.
smile
where is Doodle's call - hope he or she gets thru today?
Bob had another transplant calling in to praise him on his February 2016 call.
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Note to the nasty anonymous who sent comments using vulgar language about what you think my political views are:
GROW A PAIR AND SEND YOUR INSULTS TO BRINKER AND WHILE YOU ARE AT IT, SIGN YOUR INSULTS.
It's amazing that the progressive income tax (i.e., the harder you work the more we're going to punish you) as promoted by Karl Marx, has become accepted as a normal thing in The Land of the Free.
Actually, it has been for a long time now as has socialized medicine, and numerous other Marxist ideas. Maybe Van Jones, hero of CNN can explain why I'm paranoid.
Anything new or of note in august marketimer?
I wish someone in the media(including Bob)would talk about soaring minority crime in America.It has impact on our quality of life, and most certainly on our investments if God forbid it's gets worse. HB you might be isolated from it in the California mountains but here in the rust belt it's rampant and scary. Our great leader in DC I believe could be our last hope.
Honeybee,
Regarding today's message to Bob Brinker and Trump Bashing:
Here is one of the reasons he may not like President Trump, Bob constantly tells us about how manufacturing is leaving this country and that it is unavoidable. The five closest businesses to my house are all manufacturing. It's not dead yet and Trump plans on making it more alive.
As Trump's plans come to fruition, Bob may be proven wrong.
I wish to simply say thank you for summarizing Bob's show. In the past, I would listen to the entire 3 hours on both Saturday and Sunday but now read the summary since "new" material does not occur frequently.
Sorry you have to put up with insulting comments.
I appreciate the effort you put into this. I do wish Bob would go back to more market related comments. Even when he was wrong he was used a data based analysis which is hard to find in the media today.
Thanks again for posting the summaries of his show; hopefully, the show will have more of his market-timer insights in the future and less of the talk show political fodder.
Not really sure I am interested in hearing about the Iphone story.
What Bluce said about what MikeE said!
JC
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Thanks to all of you for the kind and encouraging comments.
One of the reasons that I try so hard to avoid Brinker's (to me) obvious political slanting, is because I can't post it with a clear conscience without pointing out the opposing views.
Almost always, there is a very legitimate argument that could be made to his pronouncements. If I do that, this blog will immediately turn into just another political debate site.
Brinker is good at presenting (what I consider) very biased opinions about hypotheticals, and even opinions, as "non-partisan." Nope! Not so. I see right through it because I devote time to moderating a political discussion thread, so he is very transparent to me.
Anyone who truly wants to discuss politics with me can go to this site: Silicon Investor and look in "politics" for Honey_Bee's Thread.
Honeybee said... GROW A PAIR...
I think his problem stems from the fact that he had his pair removed. That's why his voice is so high and his posts are so limp wristed. (not that there is anything wrong with that) I think sHE has an abnormal number of chromosomes too.
In the month of July there were +16,000 manufacturing jobs created. Manufacturing jobs have now increased in 7 of the past 8 months. I think Brinker failed to mention this when he was giving the details of the jobs report. He also never mentions when new factories opening in the U.S. such as Foxconn, an electronic supplier for Apple which recently announced a plant in Wisconsin. Just like the mainstream media Brinker does not like to mention facts that don't fit his narrative.
Herb...soaring minority crime...impact on our quality of life...on our investments...HB you might be isolated from it in the California mountains but here in the rust belt it's rampant and scary.
Important economic point, this. The US economy will probably look like a larger Mexico, a land of haves & have nots. Socialist policies will dominate, freedom shrinks. Demographics are destiny. And it should have a large impact on stocks; most likely large (i.e. politically connected) companies do well and smaller, more independent companies will suffer. I've already adjusted my portfolio for this, myself.
Regarding the rust belt? Expect more white flight into enclaves or even moving out completely. What happened when the Northwest boomed. Only UMC types who are willing to move will escape the chaos. That's just the way it is. 1950's America, well that died some time ago. Libs made sure of that.
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Jim...Strange how the important facts now seem to be slipping between the lines, huh?
I posted your comments in the summary.
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Pig...Yep, that sure sounds like the same guy. :)
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Herb...It's good to hear from you. Do you still have the link to my political thread on Silicon Investor?
U.S. manufacturing jobs have been on a steady increase since 2009. The previous rather steady increase period occurred 1993-1998.
See chart:
https://www.recode.net/2017/5/26/15656120/manufacturing-jobs-automation-ai-us-increase-robot-sales-reshoring-offshoring
I have a suggestion to help perhaps broaden the conversation beyond the BB acolytes of which there are few and the opposing point of view in that there are a number of very smart people on this board who know their stuff, especially when it comes to bonds and other retirement-related issues - the questions BB fields all the time and which which I think come up lacking. People post similar questions to this board and they are more often than not, somewhat ignored. I would think that if the smarter kids on the block took a little time to offer some commentary to other than the board regulars, that the popularity of the the board would grow. And to the new posters, use a moniker something other than 'Anonymous'.
I gotta believe that Brinker Jr. reads this blog in order to keep tabs on the criticisms of Sr.'s work (radio program and newsletter.) It's natural to be protective of family, to be a wingman, so to speak.
So the question is: Does he communicate the criticisms to Sr. or just bite his tongue until it becomes unbearable?
Wouldn't it be interesting if Jr. tried to very tactfully suggest to Sr. some potential improvement points in the nicest, most tender and gentle way with sugar on top? After all, no sense starting an ugly food fight over some freelance blog posts.
Would love to be a fly on the wall when Jr. tries it. Can hear it now, "Um, Dad? Got a second? No? Ok, never mind. Whew!"
-Rodney
RMD question: I came in just after Bob had apparently given advice to a caller about whether to take the distribution this year vs. waiting till 4/15/18 for a first required distribution. Did anyone catch that part?
Thanks!
Well, I read it, and re-read it, and then sifted dRahme's lengthy paragraph through an extra-fine flour strainer with good results. I now feel the essence of his genius.
Sounds like he's suggesting that the blog contributors take a crack at answering the questions posed on Moneytalk, since Bob's answers are often obscure, distracted, perfunctory, and/or residing within a serious conflict of interest, or worse.
Of course, HBee already does that for us to a certain extent, complimentary, but she's only human. Maybe the BRT and the wannabees (get it?) can lay it out there for the benefit of the newbee blog viewers.
Certainly, good advice on bonds is golden these days. It's unfortunate that Bob was so worried about "Fed normalization" these past 7 years. We all could've been in the high alfalfa, as he says, with some junk bond funds and even GNMA funds, for crying out loud.
Ok, time to put up or shut up. Here's my big bond fund move. When Bob dumped DLTNX for the guilty sin of a high duration (3+), I regressed back into FFRHX that he had previously recommended but dumped for reasons that he never enunciated. Maybe he and the phone clerk had words, I don't know. FFRHX is a floating-rate bank loan fund with a duration of near zero.
As a comparison, FFRHX has been doing better than the recommended DBLSX in terms of capital appreciation and it pays double the monthly dividend (ironically) than the recommended Doubleline fund.
Also, I used my wife's IRA funds for that experiment to see what would happen. I know, not cool. But she's happy so far.
Anyway, that's a real-world report from the land of too much belly mass.
-Hayes, Hannibal MO
Anonymous Herb said...
I wish someone in the media(including Bob)would talk about soaring minority crime in America. It has impact on our quality of life, and most certainly on our investments if God forbid it's gets worse. HB you might be isolated from it in the California mountains but here in the rust belt it's rampant and scary. Our great leader in DC I believe could be our last hope.
==== ==== ==== ==== ====
smile says: Nationally crime is down according to stats I have heard recently. FBI compiles this report but a little stale: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1
Locally crime may be on the rise due to factors such as opioid addiction and lack of opportunity (jobs). It is interesting to see that with the opioid epidemic hitting white Americans hard (which also impacts crime stats) that it is getting addressed as a disease as opposed to just "those minority group" crime problems. Lots of talk about this during health care repeal and replace which failed where the concern was reducing growth of medicaid expansion (connection being used for opioid treatment) under ACA by about 900 billion and block granting to states to control Federal $ spent and to make it easier funding wise to get tax reform done. As we all heard Brinker say yesterday re: tax reform - maybe not so easy a lift in fact a possible quagmire if done responsibly.
If you are in Michigan the buck stops with the Governor. Maybe contact Rick Snyder with your concerns so the problems causing crime not groups of Americans blamed for their circumstance can be addressed. If you are dissatisfied with Snyder let him know maybe he needs to get out there to bring more opportunity to the state.
All presidents are judged by what they deliver not by what they promised.
smile
RMD question: I came in just after Bob had apparently given advice to a caller about whether to take the distribution this year vs. waiting till 4/15/18 for a first required distribution. Did anyone catch that part?
I did not hear the show yesterday, but in answer to this question, you can delay your 2017 distribution until 4/15/18 but you still have to take your 2018 distribution IN 2018. That doubles the distribution which is treated as ordinary income for tax purposes.
Floating rate funds. Yeah. I've owned one for a long time in my IRA. TR Price offers one. Vanguard does not. Watch the expenses.
smile: Nationally crime is down according to stats I have heard recently.
Yes, but only because the US put a record-breaking percentage of the nation in prison post 1960. We now top even dictator run countries as a police state. This works only for so long, and it's devastating to the economy in the long run. And the economy is what Herb is talking about.
Herb is correct in that the US stock market may face trouble if we lose cultural unity as a nation and this effects business operations (practically guaranteed to happen as whites move to minority status & the laws and culture change; again, look at Mexico or Venezuela for economies that work but work very differently than wealthy countries). Said another way: Norway or Michigan can get away with being socialist and liberal because of the culture, but Detroit and California? Not so much, because different demographics respond differently to liberalism.
BB: Based on a price/earnings ration range of 17 to 18 times operating earnings in a low inflation economy
The problem I have with BB here is that first PE is inflated because earnings are imaginary (ROIC is a less manipulated metric) and second how does he know inflation will stay low? This is what leaves me awake at night being fully invested...
Well, a prosperous weekend in my racing gig! Our first quarter horse at our Barn won his race and a $12,000 purse (60%) of it. We purchased the horse in a private sale for $4500. The horse was claimed for $7500. We made money on the purchase.
2 thoroughbred horses came in 2nd in their respective races earning a total of $5000.
All in all a good weekend.
The Market remains in a bull trend. However, August and September historically has not been good for the Market. Hold on to your suspenders.
Gabe
I don't believe crime in the US is going down for a minute even though I see the numbers saying they are.
I'm talking about solving the soaring crime problem. Not just saying it's a demographic trend. Addressing the actual core problems in people making them see life as a glorious opportunity of prosperity and joy like HB and her readers, not a arduous life filled with no hope turning to crime.
What are the causes of higher crime in minorities in the US? Something that has irked me for awhile. It's not Jesse Jackson's blame game.
I always though people had the same average IQ as a group. What I've read now normal range is 85-114. Many minorities are way at the bottom of the normal range, some approaching below normal. Asians are at the high end of normal.Even in their home countries in poor living conditions they grade high.
What we have to do is raise these low normal.IQ levels. How? That's the million dollar question. Especially when their home countries grade low, even below normal.This will help the crime problem. Not be a cure all, Sure high end normal IQ people can be criminals too.
Could you imagine a civil debate of the issue seeking solutions? What a great shot in the arm for the country.i know it's pipedream it will never happen. But with a courageous leader I have hope anything is possible.
How does this involve finances? It involves the security of my investments in a peaceful enviorment to grow and not be influenced by unnecessary turbulence.
RE: RMD distribution--whether to take this year or next.
Thank you, frankj. The part I missed was whether, given the current administration and tax policy inclinations, it would be better to take my first RMD this year or whether it would be better to wait till 2018 (realizing I'd be taking 2 distributions next year).
IQ levels have little or nothing to do with whether someone turns to crime or not.
The biggest single factor is probably the break-up of the traditional family, the blame for which lies with the anti-family, anti-Judeo Christian values of the political left. They don't try to hide this, nor do they try to hide the fact that their ultimate goal is overturning and destroying all of western civilization.
Prisons, streetgangs have a higher percent of low IQ people than the average.
Look at your local doctors. I bet they're a high percentage of Indians, Pakistani, and Asians coming from high IQ nation's. How many Indian, and Pakistani youth streetgangs in the usa do you hear about?
If we were getting flooded with blonde hair blue eyed Swedes would anyone complain. Who says Swedes family structure isn't falling apart?
There's good and bad in all groups.
Maybe a huge program of proper nutrition somehow giving people incentive to avoid fast food junk?
More rewards for good grades and behavior in school?
And yes maybe a big border wall?
Regarding crime having an impact on our investments (especially re the stock market), I would say white-collar and/or corporate crime has a much greater impact on our investments than blue-collar and/or violent crime. In which case, we are talking about largely different demographic groups. "Minorities" wouldn't generally be common among them.
Is the tax law change for overseas money amnesty?
The GOP are anti-amnesty and pro law and order.
Herb, the flaw in your logic is in not establishing the cause and effect. The overwhelming percentage of street gang members have two legs. Maybe THAT'S why they're criminals . . . ?
Also: Your solutions are that we need MORE government involvement and programs. That is exactly the root of existing problems that have gotten worse in recent decades: too much government -- all of it being left-wing and anti-family.
And, there are problems with the human condition that have always been there and always will be. They cannot be solved, but progressives do not understand that. And so we trudge on, down the same path of predictable failure -- as history shows.
cable news is reporting breaking news: US Intel reporting N. Korea has accomplished miniaturization of nuclear warhead.
Obviously they are successfully testing long range ICBM's capable of hitting any spot in the US.
Also obvious KJU has learned the lesson of not being Saddam or MoMar.
so NK has now joined the MAD party.
smile
Bluce said...
Herb, the flaw in your logic is in not establishing the cause and effect. The overwhelming percentage of street gang members have two legs. Maybe THAT'S why they're criminals . . . ?
Bluce, nah, but if you add these, you would have a much better better (99.982652784517%) cause/effect correlation:
Full face, neck, head, ears and body tats.
Earrings, particularly the big discs (that require ear lobe surgery).
Piercings (anywhere, everywhere).
Gold-plated "Grills." No, not car grills or BBQ grills), I'm referring to Gold-plated teeth grills.
I agree with Gawd.
Gabe
A nice come back!
Gabe
I would imagine that Brinker would have more than an educated guess as to what could befall the markets should anyone be crazy enough to initiate intentional aerial, nuclear weapon explosions. Wonder how difficult it is for him to be silent on all this ? He certainly was not timid when he repeatedly cheer led the start of the disastrous Iraq war. He did completely and wisely clam up on the subject later. Maybe he learned a valuable lesson about commenting on war altogether ? Still he may have some valuable market commentary on the latest nuclear threats.
SLAMMED1
Gabe
It's better than getting nuked....
Actually, we should all rest easy. We have a Commander in Chief whose first priority is keeping America safe - not pacifying those threatening us.
so how will this play out?
I have no clue but suspect that KJU will continue to advance his nuclear ambitions.
The test is if Kim follows up his threat to lob 4 medium range unarmed missiles near Guam. Provocative yes but not an attack so US will try to shoot down those missiles we will know the second a launch takes place and within minutes the trajectory and expected splash down. This is bad, just enough to poke US in the eye but not enough to do a preemptive strike. Stock market could be in for some serious downside volatility if this occurs.
So we are left with the same situation previous Presidents have confronted which is advancement of nuclear weapons in NoKo and not much we can justify doing on the scale of preemptive strike. Rationale for no preemptive strike is what has been hanging over past Presidents. If we do a preemptive strike there is no guarantee we hit the entire nuclear part of program. This in turn will cause an escalation of conventional weapons aimed at S. Korea and a possible launch of a nuclear ICBM towards US. This is why a preemptive strike will not happen.
The rhetoric back and forth which amounts to nothing will quiet down and KJU's nuclear program will be intact. He is not crazy stupid so what does he want? He wants US to know that regime change ain't happening in N. Korea and he is not giving up his Ace in the hole which is his nuclear program which he sees as a deterrent against regime change ambitions ala Iraq and Lybia.
If it was easy it would have been done already.
buckle up get your shopping list together...
smile
Will the last retailer leaving please turn off the lights?
All figures are 1-day (Today) % Declines:
DDS -15.87%
M -10.25
JCP -8.72
DKS -8.40
SHLD -6.42
KSS -5.80
JMN -4.29
All stores will cease to exist within 3-5 years.
All citizens of the world shall kneel and pay homage to Big Lib Bezos.
Read all about in the Bezos-Amazon Washington Post!
Well...I decided to buy the dip with a few bucks!
Gabe
Amazon/Google/Apple/Et al.: Don't get sucked up in the latest version of the tulip mania bubble.
Business empires and fads, just like political empires and fads, come and go.
A bit of a recovery!
Gabe
Has he run out of all of the (Taxpayer Funded) government subsidies?
Bond investors give Tesla a $1.8 billion endorsement
https://goo.gl/hf1pfS
Jerrod Clarkson said...
Will the last retailer leaving please turn off the lights?
All figures are 1-day (Today) % Decliners
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OK, Here are some retailers that got walloped again today.
All figures are 2-day (Yesterday, Today) % Decliners
DDS -15.87%, -5.98%
JCP -8.72%, -16.56%
KSS -5.80%, -2.18%
I previously thought Sears would be the first to turn the lights out, but now I am thinking JCP will be first. Today, JCP closed $3.92 - the lowest price in a decade.
Sad...very, very sad.
Almanac: J.C. Penney's first store:
https://goo.gl/qxXtZ8
JC
Next week should be the "tell all" whether this Market will or will not continue its bull run given the fact that an important data point on Tuesday....retail sales!
Next week should be volatile so keep those suspenders ready.
Gabe
The biggest tool in Kim's belt is fear mongering. He needs to tout fearless soldiers willing to fight to the death armed with nuclear warheads operating at the will of a lunatic despot. This will usually bring the super powers to their knees for fear of losing popularity or some other financial risk to budding economy. His game plan is always to appear crazy with power. The usual State Department advice is to avoid escalating rhetoric and quietly pay ransom money. To offer guarantees of non aggression. Oh, my Trump appears to understand this despot game plan and only offers bullets if miss behaving. Trump communicates so to the public at large and claims the fat boy doesn't have a future if acting badly.
I believe the NYC street fighter CIC recognizes the tyrants game plan and chooses to warn the creep that that U.S. will not tolerate aggression and threats, but will offer a choice to survive if acting properly.
This war would not be the Vietnam like Korean war of yesteryear, but a strategic punch to remove fat boy. Since N Korea economy is black market and fully engaged with modern trading, not many lives will be lost to support fat boy. The real threat is to avoid massive investment to fix the country after breaking. That my friends lies at the feet of S Korea and they will gladly unite as the likes of Germany did. Problem will be then China and Korea competitiveness for the upper hand within this region. Don't think for a moment that China isn't trucking nukes over to N korea to maximise the countries power to thwart such outcome. China likes things a disruptive threatening N Korea as a bulwark for dampening S Korea's influence and competitiveness.
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