STOCK MARKET.....Brinker comments: "The stock market has taken note of increased profits and has done very well - it's trading within 1% of its all time historic record high - S&P 2395.....The Total Stock Market returns for the first quarter came in at 5.8%....If that keeps up for the full year, that would be an annualized return of 23%. Brinker calls that "gargantuan." "The stock market has more than tripled in the last eight years."
Honey EC: Brinker recommended that retirees keep stock market risk in their investments at 50% - that's not new, he has been doing for many years now. His Marketimer model portfolios are fully invested - including the two all-equity model portfolios I and II.
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIOS....Caller Doug from Iowa City, after praising Brinker for several minutes, mentioned how great index funds are to own. BB said: "I agree with Doug that index funds should play a major role in your investments. We use index fund participation to a major extent in all of our stock market model portfolios in the Marketimer investment letter.
Honey EC: As Brinker said, he uses Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund in all three model portfolios. Last year, he added the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund (VDAIX) to go along with the total market. (The fund that it replaced was closed to new investors.)
MARKETIMER BOND FUND HOLDINGS.... Caller Michael from Templeton, Oregon, a new listener and soon to be Marketimer subscriber had a bond fund question. BB replied: "At this time - we do make recommendations in the investment letter for low-duration bond funds. We have a number of them in there that we are using in our model portfolios. At this time, we don't have any Fidelity Funds in our recommendations....We've put together funds that we are comfortable with, where we are willing to take the risk that is involved in the fund - and we are willing to accept the low-duration interest rate risk that goes along with that.
Honey EC: What Brinker was inferring was that his three Marketimer bond funds are loaded with high-yield bonds - especially this one (OSTIX). That shouldn't be a problem as long as the economy keeps rolling along. I own VWEHX, which Brinker sold a few years back.
IF YOU WANT NO RISK GO FOR CDS.....BB continued: If you decide you don't want to take any risk at all, then the fully FDIC Certificates of Deposit are a way to assure you are going to get your principal back, you are going to earn your interest, albeit a low rate.....and that's the trade-off you have to make.
BOND/INTEREST RATE....Brinker is still adamantly for low-duration bond funds....
WHAT INVESTORS DO NOT LIKE.....BB comments; Investors do not like high inflation, high interest rates and/or tight money.
ECONOMY/GDP NUMBERS....BB comments: The 4th quarter GDP number is 2.0, which brings year-over-year number to 2.0 for 2016.
JOB MARKET.... BB called it "excellent" with "stellar jobless claims."
WATCHING (FOR) INFLATION.....BB comments: Inflation has shown some pickup, but not alarming yet....We are watching it closely now.
Thanks to dRahme, here is a short-clip of Brinker's economic report in the opening monologue.
IT'S A GO - BREXIT ARTICLE 50 INVOKED....BB comment: European Union immigration drove the vote for the UK to leave the EU - even those who voted against Brexit are against free movement of EU citizens into the UK.
Honey EC: In my opinion, it's not the "citizens" of the EU that Brits are worried about. It's the army of young invading men that they are bringing in - who are creating the most horrendous chaos imaginable in EU countries. By the way, illegal immigration also drove the vote for the election of Donald J. Trump to the White House.
BORDER TAX POSSIBILITIES.....Caller Jim from Naperville brought up the subject of a border tax. Brinker explained his point of view on what it could mean.
Thanks to dRahme, here is a short clip of Brinker's Brexit and border tax comments.
OOPSY....BRINKER MISSPOKE.....Brinker talked about the national deficit being at $20 trillion. He was definitely confused because the national debt is $20 trillion and the deficit is the amount that that the budget is over-run, which is added to the national debt. The expenditures ending fiscal year, September 30th......exceeded the revenues by $588 billion - a 35% increase in the federal deficit.....
BB'S FUNNY INVESTMENT ADVICE OF THE DAY.....Caller Rafael in the second hour, was trying to explain his huge real estate holdings to Brinker and didn't take a breath for several minutes. Finally, Brinker had to cut in and literally interrupt him to get his attention. Brinker first advice to Rafael was to "invest in some periods for your sentences."
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY
Bob’s guest today, April 2, 2017 was William D. Cohan, author of the book “Why Wall Street Matters.” Today was a repeat appearance for Mr. Cohan on the StarShip. He is a financial journalist and former banker. Mr. Cohan said the book is short, easy to read and it is his hope that people will gain a better understanding of Wall Street’s importance to their everyday life. (Editorial comment in italics as usual.)
A blurb on Amazon books describes this offering as, “A timely, counterintuitive defense of Wall Street and the big banks as the invisible—albeit flawed—engines that power our ideas, and should be made to work better for all of us.”
Mr. Cohan thinks Wall Street is bashed unfairly by politicians of all stripes and mentioned Bernie Sanders and President Trump in this regard. He cited an example of Elizabeth Warren blocking the appointment of Antonio Weiss to a government position simply because he once worked on Wall Street. Mr. Cohan said he knew Mr. Weiss was well-qualified for the job.
The guest believes Wall Street’s compensation model is to blame for financial disasters that result (naturally) in Main Street’s dislike and distrust. For decades, Wall Street investment firms were partnerships, meaning it was the partners’ capital that was at risk if investments went south. That changed in the 1970’s when Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette was the first firm to go public. Many more followed suit and the result was that risk was no longer confined to the partners, now it was spread among the shareholders at large.
He referred to the “bonus culture,” wherein employees of the firm take outsized risks with other people’s money, hoping for that big bonus at the end of the year.
Bob asked if he blamed Wall Street for 2008? The guest gave a long answer, beginning with the statement that there was a lot of blame to go around. Government policy and the actions of Wall Street, mortgage brokers and real estate agents pushed home ownership up from 61% to 70% (presumably these are percentages of households). As MoneyTalk regulars well know, there were a lot of people who had no business buying a home during this bubble, but they were accommodated by a greedy lending sector.
The bottom line was, no one on Wall Street was held responsible. The Dept. of Justice under President Obama did little or nothing to go after those responsible. Preet Bharara, former US Attorney in New York City has gone after hedge fund operators but not Wall Streeters involved in the housing debacle. Mr. Cohan said Bharara told him “stupidity and greed” are not grounds for prosecution and there is a lack of evidence that Wall Street firms acted illegally.
The guest pointed out that Dan Turillo, a former member of the Fed pushed regulations on Wall Street firms, “trying to turn it into a utility.” Because they tend to be monopolistic over broad geographical areas, utilities are tightly regulated.
The result of this regulation is that small and medium sized businesses on Main Street have found it difficult to borrow. He cited Larry Summers as someone who thinks these regulations are the reason we are stuck at about 2% growth of GDP.
Keith from Rochester called in. He’s getting to be a regular on the StarShip. Normally he is strident and argumentative and makes more of a statement than asks a question. But today his call fed right into what the guest said about the difficulty of getting capital flowing to Main Street. Keith cited the hit Rochester took when Kodak folded. The guest gave a long answer which basically agreed with what Keith said.
Bob wrapped up about 3:55.
Honey here: Thanks very much, FrankJ....This is for you:
JEFFCHRISTIE SIGHTING BY SOME....MAYBE WE CAN RE-CAPTURE HIM SOON. TIME TO HIT THE BOOKS AGAIN.
Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK KION 1460 Monterey
109 comments:
I am shocked- shocked- to find that Brinker is going on the air live!
Captain Renault
Morocco
Bob got a call where the guy wanted to know what to do with his MRD as he was concerned about being in a higher tax bracket. Instead of providing any useful information Bob told the caller he ought to be happy he put so much away.
Reminds me of:
A helicopter was flying around above Seattle when an electrical malfunction disabled all of the aircraft's electronic navigation and communications equipment. Due to the clouds and haze, the pilot could not determine the helicopter's position and course to fly to the airport. The pilot saw a tall building, flew toward it, circled, drew a handwritten sign, and held it in the helicopter's window. The pilot's sign said "WHERE AM I?" in large letters. People in the tall building quickly responded to the aircraft, drew a large sign and held it in a building window. Their sign read: "YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER." The pilot smiled, waved, looked at her map, determined the course to steer to SEATAC airport, and landed safely. After they were on the ground, the co-pilot asked the pilot how the "YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER" sign helped determine their position. The pilot responded "I knew that had to be the Microsoft building because, like their technical support, online help and product documentation, the response they gave me was technically correct, but completely useless."
Burt: I don't remember his exact words, but Bob typically gave the left-wing response that you should feel honored that the government ALLOWED you to keep some of your (its) money without being taxed until later.
I take it I did not miss much in Bob's opening mono.
FYI TaxAct just upped their prices I see today ouchie for all procrastinating home gamers who use their tax prep. programs ($37 now for online prep., and $75 now for desktop). Yesterday was grace period apparently cutoff u could have gotten online $10 cheaper and desktop $15 cheaper.
TaxAct sent me email saying prices going up 3/31/17 I laughed yesterday when I looked and saw no change in price from 27 & 60. I looked today and sure enough kblam prices raised!
Hope we get simplification reform as promised - winning! LOL
smile
ps. taxes due April 18th this year. I would not even think of doing taxes myself without tax prep. software like I did say 35 years ago LOL.
BREAKING NEWS I have been informed (by several unnamed sources) that Jeff Christie was able to raise enough cash to post bail and should return soon.............perhaps later this week.
Smile: Surprised you are mentioning the cost of TaxAct. Apparently TaxAct is no longer the low cost leader in this arena. H&R Block Tax Software Deluxe is currently priced at less than $30 for desktop download on Amazon ($35 Mac version). Plus you can qualify for a 10% refund bonus in the form of an Amazon gift card. (Bonus amount depends on the size of your federal refund and how much of the refund you take in the form of an Amazon credit.) For example, last year I had a $500 refund and got a $50 bonus for using the software, so basically my net cost for using the software was zero (actually $20 into my pocket). This year I wasn't getting a refund, so I sent Uncle Sam an extension request together with a check for $300. As soon as the check cleared, I e-filed and got my $300 refund (plus $30 Amazon bonus), within eight calendar days. The payback for the short term 8-day $300 loan to Uncle Sam was sufficient to cover the cost of the software. LOL!
Did I correctly hear Bob tell a "long winded" caller that was describing his real estate investments to learn how to use a period in his sentences? I about fell off my chair but thought I must have misunderstood Bob......or did I?
Also, just curious how many posters on this blog actually subscribe to Brinker's Newsletter? I have for years but after reading this site for the last year I am starting to doubt my $185 annual subscription is actually worth it. Any thoughts on subscribing to the newsletter?
Thanks
Smile: It sounds like the on-line tax outfits have been talking to the airlines!
KC,
I had also subscribed to newsletter for years, and dropped it last September. This blog gives me a lot more information than the newsletter (and is funnier, to boot).
KC: Not a subscriber here, and never have been.
Biker, pretty slick use of OPM on tax prep. with H&R. Good info. on H&R @ Amazon with 10% refund rebate.
I passed on TaxAct this year 2016. Used 'em last year for 2015 at a cost of about $20 for 2 returns. First and last time I ever paid for tax desktop software.
I'll be paying in this year a small amount. Will consider H&R @ Amazon w/ rebate next year. Researched and found online prep. at a price I could not resist.
Frankj, taxact exhorbitant (tripled cost 4 desktop from last year) like baggage and extra pretzel or blanket etc. fees which unlike TaxAct, I like from airlines since I own LUV and don't fly much unless its free.
smile
The only reason Brinker hosted this weekend is because there ''ain't no way'' he's gonna be around next weekend during Masters Sunday....
Certainly, tax return preparation requires focus, especially if you must use multiple schedules such as Sched. A, B, D, E, Form 8949, et al.
HOWEVER, if a person makes the effort to read the instruction pamphlets cover-to-cover at least once or twice, maybe thrice, the task becomes easy going forward and the thought of visiting and paying a plebe with an old computer at a dirty desk in a musty office the $hundreds$ they expect becomes absurd.
Once understood, most average tax returns are simple. It would be like paying someone to balance your check book. Why pay?
Plus, by doing your own tax prep you end up with clear picture of the income flows, and then you just get a grip on the outflows and you're golden.
Tried TurboTax about 10 years ago and was bored with the 3rd-grade answering of questions, yes-or-no, which triggers the next applicable page to answer again, yes-or-no. It's probably fine for most folks but it's a sheep's way of understanding personal income.
On the other hand, with a blank form and a pencil, the big picture appears as the lines are filled in. With software, I couldn't see the whole story continuously.
In the end, just knowing which lines on the Form 1040 will have entries and which lines won't made me much smarter about the big deal called INCOME.
Of course, the deductions and the taxes on the flip side of the 1040 are a learning curve too, but very satisfying when you swoosh them as well.
-Ski Bunny, Tahoe
Honeybee: Thank you for the birthday greeting!
Today was a good day, first there was a reception at noon at a small church nearby for the young man I tutored in high school. He is home for 10 days having completed boot camp with the Marines in San Diego. Then a dinner with his family, at a local restaurant, celebrating him, my birthday, and his Mom's birthday which is tomorrow. A trifecta.
Then Honeybee's nice surprise video.
BB: By the way, illegal immigration also drove the vote for the election of Donald J. Trump to the White House, in my opinion.
Hey, BB and I agree on something!
.
MK.....You quoted me and added the initials BB into what is clearly part of my editorial comments.
Why would you do that?
Here is my total comment as posted in the summary:
Honey EC: Mr. Brinker, it's not the "citizens" of the EU that Brits are worried about. It's the army of young invading men that they are bringing in - who are creating the most horrendous chaos imaginable in EU countries. By the way, illegal immigration also drove the vote for the election of Donald J. Trump to the White House, in my opinion.
I will await an explanation from you!
KC I subscribed to his newsletter for 2 years, the $185 was not the issue his bad recommendations cost me far more than that. GNMA etc.
As far as the real estate call, was he the one that said, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know?
IF you are looking for a cheap on line tax preparer, CreditKarma.com is doing them free. I use Turbo Tax and have been for several years and understand them plus I know a little about taxes so it is simple for me. The big thing I like is that TurboTax can import my brokerage transactions and I may have 30 to 50 of those transactions each year.
I haven't checked this blog for a few years and I was pleased to find it still alive and well. I used to follow the site weekly, checking in once or twice to read the comments and summaries. On a couple of occasions I even submitted my own comments as anonymous. I was happy to see that most of the regulars were still actively contributing to the blog. The level of intellect and knowledge coupled with common sense makes for interesting reading. There are usually a couple of gold nuggets of information, experience and advice that can be picked up.
In a general sense I'm surprised that Bob is still doing a radio show. I started listening to Bob many years ago, but it was sporadic, off and on. Except a period of time when I had a long commute and I would listen to Bob on a recorded cassette. I think I remember him doing six hours on the weekends. Seems crazy now.
Honeybee, best of luck to you and your crew of contributors. I' ll be checking in from time to time and maybe throw in a few comments of my own.
I've been stalking the blog for some years now. I needed a good recap on BB as couldn't sit through it all. Thank you for your hard work.
Would it be appropriate to post my retirement financial basics? I know the group has good sensibility and value any comments.
After learning of how SS works and taxes after retirement, it become evident to me the best bang for the buck was to utilize IRA money before accepting SS. Since wife and I have about equal SS and about equal good health, the plan is to burn through stock savings IRA money 1st. As you know SS and cost of living creeps up on delayed benefits up to age 70,at a rate the beats stock market on average. I like maximizing SS benefits as often pitched why an annuity is so good. A guaranteed income for life that is somewhat inflation risk free. Also, the income has good tax treatment. Non until $35k or is it $30k, then 1/2 up to $60k/year. So, my thinking, the tax savings would be a great return. An increase in spendable income, that probably will be worth more in the future and is guaranteed.
I have keep track of family expenses for decades and know we now spend basically $30k per year. We will increase our spending, but for retirement leisure or travel to about the 2x this level. I have rental property that income is not needed and plan to downsize and simplify. Two properties that because of depreciation and appreciation will demand tax payment. I plan on those two years to have no IRA withdrawals to minimize tax load. Properties are worth $130k with $100k capital gains and 30k recapture. The other is $180k with no appreciation and 100k recapture.
I plan on selling properties and converting money to Roths and spending IRA money before taking SS. SS will be $58k/year. Any comments on this strategy?
Honeybee wrote that THAT Bob said:
"At this time, we don't have any Fidelity Funds in our recommendations...."
Honeybee, THAT Bob seems to be singling out (and perhaps bashing?) Fidelity here. Any ideas why?
JC
Forrest and Jan, your plan to sell real estate properties and convert the proceeds to Roth IRAs will contradict IRS rules. Better rethink.
.
Jerrod....I don't remember Brinker EVER having any Fidelity Funds in Marketimer. It's possible, but it would have been many years ago.
He also bashes Schwab, mostly by omission, recently more blatantly by saying something to a caller that was likely to be misunderstood by 99% of the audience.
Honey: I will await an explanation from you!
HB, sorry, I thought your "Mr. Brinker, it's not the citizens" meant: Mr. Brinker (says): "it's not the citizens". Just in a hurry.
Wishful thinking on my part tho. I should have known better; I always foolishly hold out hope BB will come to his senses politically...it's like I'm Carlie Brown and BB is Lucy and I just can't quite get that football...
Forest and Jan:
Taxability of Social Security: Estimate your adjusted gross income, then add one-half of your Soc Sec income, then add any non-taxable interest you receive, like from Muni bonds. If the result is $32K to 44K then 50% of your Soc Sec will be taxed. If greater than $44K then 85% of your Soc Sec is taxable.
Converting money to a Roth IRA... the only source for this can be retirement money like a Traditional IRA. This conversion is a taxable event. The amount you convert drops into the ordinary income column on your return, as if you took the amount out in cash.
If those are rental properties and you've decided you no longer want them, selling them to generate income for living expenses sounds like a good plan.
.
MK....I am so relieved to know that it was an honest mistake on your part.
Even though I could not see a reason for it, I had a strong feeling that you were seeing something that I wasn't.
Thank you for clearing that up. Sorry if I sounded a little harsh and I will definitely not use Brinker's name like that in my editorial comments. I can see it was an easy thing for you to view it the way you did.
MOF, I am going to change it....
So Mr B considers the current job market "excellent" with "stellar jobless claims."
From the Department of Labor website week ending Mar 25 jobless claims number was 258K, still above the four week moving average of 246500. Stellar?
Perhaps he was stating his own employment situation. Average of nine hours a month with no heavy lifting. To those of you out there who can hook me up with a similar gig, my gratitude in advance.
.
Birdbrain....In my opinion, Brinker is interested in establishing a good "legacy" for Obama - period.
Honeybee,
I haven't seen his holdings for awhile, and I am not asking for you or anyone to publish them. In fact it may not be legal to do so?
However, I do recall that occasionally there is a discussion here on one or several of his holdings. On those occasions I usually take a quick peek to ascertain:
1) Would this fund be appropriate for average investors?
2) Are there other comparable funds available (Fidelity, Schwab etc.) with lower costs and better performance?
Much of the time I didn't get past question #1. But on those occasions when I proceeded to question #2, I found a superior fund via Fidelity and/or Schwab. I think this would particularly be true currently, as both companies have been competing in a contest of lowering fees and commissions. Both offer a good selection of zero-commission funds also.
JC
Blogger Honeybee said...
Birdbrain....In my opinion, Brinker is interested in establishing a good "legacy" for Obama - period.
Honeybee,
WOW! Talk about a Mission Impossible!
JC
A nice turnaround in the markets!
Gabe
.
Jerrod...That would be a fascinating study from a viewpoint that never occurred to me.
As I have often said, BB's main stock fund holding in all three model portfolios are Vanguard Funds - the total stock market in particular - models I and II 50%. So comparing the costs of that one item would tell us a lot.
Fidelity and Schwab both have total stock market funds. And I think that Schwab recently lowered prices.
We already know that the costs of his bond funds are WAY higher than Vanguard index funds, including GNMA.
HB: I believe if one owns Admiral Shares at Vanguard, fees might be lower.
Gabe
Regarding Brinker and Fidelity funds, Brinker owned the Fidelity Floating Rate Fund for a time. He sold his Ginnie Mae fund in 2013 to buy it. It turned out to be a bad move though as the Ginnie Mae fund continued to outperform. He then sold the Fidelity Floating Rate fund in Jan. 2015.
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Jim....You are absolutely right. I completely forgot about that Fidelity Fund - I'm sure Brinker would like to forget too. He sure didn't mention it when he had the chance.
.
Gabe....I'm sure that is correct. Do you know the symbol for the Vanguard Admiral total stock market fund?
HB: Yep...VTSAX.
It's fee is 0.05%
Gabe
Frankj and John, thanks for the comment. My wife will retire in September and I'm only working the rental properties, now. Prior jobs were Engineer and small machine shop owner. Not much money in machine shops. We will utilize IRA money and rental income and sale of rentals in the interim (before taking SS benefits at age 70). That is 7 years out. We have no interest income or plan on interest income during retirement. The IRA should be enough, to last until 70 age. The rental sales would be additional to do with what ever.
I'm thinking SS is the best income per the way they calculate tax. Only 1/2 of the benefit is utilized when calculating AGI. Upon retirement (taking SS) it's easy to javascript:void(0)stay in the no tax category if not using IRA money,investment income, or interest. Having non SS income will only get this income taxed at full load and makin SS benefits taxable as well.
Am I missing something? I never read this advice, but it seems common sense to me. If retiree's save all their IRA money for last years they will be forced to pay high taxes and forced to make minimum withdrawals.
As long as the Moneytalk host continues to disrespect President Trump by refusing to acknowledge his name, and only refer to him as "the current president", then perhaps the Moneytalk host should be similarly acknowledged.
I second Jim's comment.
As for Bobby's long-time bias against Schwab, maybe Charlie is a Republican.
MAD: Haven't you figured out how to make a Google account yet?????
MAD: Wow, don't remember. But I do remember that the way Google/Gmail is set up is an absolute mess, confusing, and is really dumb. Do a search and you'll find all kinds of people bitching about it. And, as is typical nowadays, there is nobody to help you except other subscribers.
Google is like the Mafia: Tough to get in and even tougher to get out.
Maybe Honey is more up-to-speed on it . . . ?
.
Bluce and Mad....I can't remember exactly how I did it, and I'm afraid to mess with my account to refresh my memory. As Bluce said, they are like the mafia, and they own this blog - so to speak.
Suggest you "Google" your question - there is likely answsers out there. LOL!!!!!
The Dow came back a bit!
Gabe
YIKES!
Fed's Lacker Resigns Over Leak, Dealing Blow to Bank's Credibility
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he was stepping down effective Tuesday in a letter that revealed his involvement in an alleged 2012 leak of confidential Fed information.
--------------------
JC: Apparently he is going "scott free" not even a tap on his hand.
Again I say "Abolish The Fed".
-------------------
More...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-04/richmond-feds-lacker-resigns-after-admitting-he-leaked-confidential-fed-information
JC
PS:
Maybe President Trump won't need to "Drain the Swamp" after all. With all the LEAKS going on (with no consequences), I think a lot of the federal employees are draining it themselves.
BTW, I should have forewarned everyone:
While the Zero-Hedge article is excellent - some of the comments are "not so much".
I regret not labeling the comments as NSFW.
My apologies to all.
JC
Jim said...
As long as the Moneytalk host continues to disrespect President Trump by refusing to acknowledge his name, and only refer to him as "the current president", then perhaps the Moneytalk host should be similarly acknowledged
Are you referring to that radio guy that shows up for work one or 2 Sundays a month for 3 hours and has newsletter that works perfectly to line a parakeet cage?
Honeybee,
I made a post (re: Jeffrey Lacker) just prior to my post today at 5:26 PM. It seems to be missing? Could you please check?
It began with the word YIKES and included discussion and a link to a Zero-Hedge article.
I didn't save it, so if it didn't make it's destination could you please delete the 5:26 PM post, as it will just confuse people.
Thanks!
JC
.
Jerrod...My mistake. It's there now.
Thanks Honeybee!
You are The Greatest!!!
JC
.
Jobs jumped - especially in construction and manufacturing:
Private payrolls grew 263K in March vs. 185K est.: ADP
Anybody using Schwab's Streetsmart Edge if so are you using cloud or download version? Any feedback on both alternatives would be helpful.
smile
Smile: Can you elaborate on that? I'm a 20-year Schwab client and I have no idea what it is.
The Fed minutes was to blame for the market's retreat.
Gabe
Bluce,
SSE (StreetSmart Edge) is Schwab's trading platform. I had problems loading the cloud version last night - seemed like at least an hour spent and no joy using IE browser but got different tech support person today and he got me up and running using Firefox browser in less than 15 minutes.
smile
A top was made in the market today. Did Brinker sell?
Smile: Are you talking about accessing Schwab with a smartphone? I don't have one, and no plans to get one. That's probably why I have no idea what you're talking about.
smile said:
Anybody using Schwab's Streetsmart Edge if so are you using cloud or download version? Any feedback on both alternatives would be helpful.
Smile, I have both versions. I really have no "favorite" as I believe both versions are functionally identical except for the fact that the download version will use a bit of disc space on your computer (about 26 MB).
It sounds as if you will be new to SSE. If that is the case, I would recommend that you view some of the Schwab SSE videos and also Live webinars on Schwab.com when they are available. Also, if you are near a Schwab office they frequently hold live seminars on SSE and other topics of interest.
I'm not sure if it is still available, but at one time Schwab offered a "co-browser" session where a Schwab representative would spend an hour or so with you online to help you with the initial setup.
SSE can be very straightforward and easy (or highly complex and somewhat difficult) depending on how you set it up. It is very powerful and has many great features. Once you have decided which version you want (or both), and assuming you want to save your changes going forward, it is highly critical that you save your changes first, and then close the program, i.e don't just close the program as you will probably lose all the changes you made during the day! It would probably be best to review that issue with a Schwab SSE rep.
Good luck with SSE. It may take a bit of time for SSE to be your friend, but it is well worth the effort!
JC
JC: I think Mad as HELL is mad as hell at Google.
Thanks JC, I kept my initial setup simple with 3 panels: watchlist, account details and all in one.
Quick q for you JC: Is it possible to nickname multiple accounts vs just seeing the account numbers? I went into settings but saw nothing to add an account nickname.
I have an appt next week for a tutorial.
Good advice JC.
I agree I see the potential!
smile
JC, I think I found the answer using help on nickname search. So I'll give it a try using main menu at schwab.com which apparental sets global settings.
smile
Hi Forrest and Jan,
I just retired last year, so I don't have any actual experience in my advice, so question all of my advice.
Frankj already covered, but here's my view.
I like your idea about selling the rental properties in separate tax years to maximize your 0% Long-term capital gains rate.
But that means you have to take care of the second one until 2019.
If you are not planning to spend all your IRA money before taking SS benefits, I would convert as much as you can out of your IRA accounts to Roth IRA accounts within the 15% bracket. Then it wouldn't be subject to the RMD and any additional income won't be taxable. This would be in years where the extra income does not push long term capital gains from 0% into the 15% bracket.
There are some ideas on the web about using recharacterization to move a little more over, but it might not be worth your effort.
So in 2020-2023, if you have little other taxable income, you could convert around $96,000 (75,300 + 12,600 + 8,100 (2016 values)), less whatever you might need to withdraw for taxes and living expenses.
Enjoy your retirement,
Les
Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-cheaper-index-funds-translate-into-lower-future-returns-2017-04-05
Blogger Bluce said...
JC: I think Mad as HELL is mad as hell at Google.
April 5, 2017 at 5:58 PM
Bluce, do tell! I'm not sure what you mean...and what does JC have to do with it?
If you mean I am concerned with "data collection" issues you are correct. Of course I am concerned with that issue on all sites that I visit. But Google seems to me to stand out as being somewhat egregious in that regard.
I recently looked at Google "My Activity" and all associated settings. I was astounded by the amount of activity there! I think I now have everything "turned off" that I can, but I am going to check on it weekly. (Unfortunately I can only control the things they collect that they SHOW me they collect). I am certain there are many, many more Google "data collection" entries in the digital universe that I cannot control.
If I misunderstood what you were getting at, please let me know!
I will await your reply as I adjust my aluminum foil hat. ;-)
Note to Honeybee and other Californians (article via Axios):
Big move:
The California Public Employees' Retirement System yesterday announced that private equity chief Réal Desrochers is stepping down, effective this Friday, in order to join an unidentified "overseas investment bank." Three notes:
- The CalPERS board was only notified of this move yesterday afternoon, and less than an hour before a press release was disseminated.
- CalPERS is not yet launching a formal search process. A system spokesman told me: "They are going evaluate the position as they discuss the role of PE. The role of PE will be discussed at our Board meeting the week of April 17." It is important to note that board approval is not actually needed for this search, suggesting that Desrochers' departure could result in CalPERS outsourcing more of its PE investing activities. Sarah Corr, a Desrochers deputy, will serve as interim head.
- Desrochers leaves CalPERS with a mixed history. He came in amidst scandal, and seemed to help clean things up. On the other hand, he held such a hard line on fees that pensioners sometimes lost out on strong-performing partnerships, in a 'penny wise, pound foolish' sort of way.
---------------
MAD: This may (or may not) be good news.
Hopefully it will lead to better investment returns, so CA tax taxpayers will not need to fork over so many $$$$ for CalPERS sub-par investment performance. I don't have a pension and it burns my arse when I have to pay for other people's pensions....and THEN we get socked with even MORE taxes when the funds under-perform because the guy at the top is an idiot when it comes to investing! This makes me Mad as HELL!
https://www.calpers.ca.gov/page/investments/about-investment-office/investment-office-senior-staff/real-desrochers
MAD: I was responding to a post by JC, who was wondering where you've been lately. But JC's post was "removed by a blog administrator," @ 4:01 (??)
Not sure what's going on. Maybe that post was not really by him and HB removed it . . . ?
FWIW: This post is really by me.
To Les,
I also retired a year ago, I think your advice is good. I would also add, keep track of your expenses for 2 years before retirement. This has really helped us for planning down the road. After that, it's just a math problem.
Bluce, thanks for clarifying.
And, a tip of the Mad as HELL! aluminum foil hat goes out to you!
Bluce said... FWIW: This post is really by me.
How do we know that? You could have been taken over last night by one of those space body snatcher pods after you fell asleep and will now vote for Hillary and walk around with a pink hat.
Hi Moe,
Thanks for your advice.
I have my checkbook on a spreadsheet, so it shouldn't be hard to track expenses and changes.
I had heard somewhere that I should keep a bucket of money outside of retirement funds, so some big expenses don't have to blow up the annual budget.
Les
Mr. Pig: I swear "that" was "me."
If you don't believe me I'll send my senator, Chuckie Schumer, to tan yer hide!
The attack against ASSad is ON!
President Trump does NOT screw around, move the red line and retreat (Ã la Obama)!
Bravo!
JC
How Many Airstrikes Did US Forces Execute in 2016?
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/01/how-many-airstrikes-did-us-forces-execute-2016/134365/?oref=d-channelriver
Estimates from government releases show Iraqi and Syrian targets got hit the hardest.
"In President Obama’s last year in office, the United States dropped 26,171 bombs in seven countries. This estimate is undoubtedly low, considering reliable data is only available for airstrikes in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya, and a single “strike,” according to the Pentagon’s definition, can involve multiple bombs or munitions. In 2016, the United States dropped 3,027 more bombs—and in one more country, Libya—than in 2015.
Most (24,287) were dropped in Iraq and Syria. This number is based on the percentage of total coalition airstrikes carried out in 2016 by the United States in Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the counter-Islamic State campaign. The Pentagon publishes a running count of bombs dropped by the United States and its partners, and we found data for 2016 using OIR public strike releases and this handy tool.* Using this data, we found that in 2016, the United States conducted about 79 percent (5,904) of the coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, which together total 7,473. Of the total 30,743 bombs that the coalition dropped, then, the United States dropped 24,287 (79 percent of 30,743)."
To Les:
Not sure how much a "bucket of money" is but having some cash available is always a good idea. In our situation, we have our budget in cash a year prior. 2017's budget was already in cash in 2016. Actually we have 3 years of our budget in fixed income in case of a market crash. (Corporate bonds,iBonds, Tax-free bonds). This method may work for all but it works for us.
Sad to see CA gas tax rising 12 cents. The Dems going to get all the wealthy Brinkerites in the state!
Les, Moe, and Curly Joe: I'm semi-retired, using SS as a supplement. Haven't touched portfolio yet, and won't until I fully retire (no pensions) so I find your discussions interesting (Curly Joe's not so much).
My portfolio is about 45/55 and in a holding pattern. If I have to fully retire I have 3-4 years living expenses in cash and ST Treasuries, and beyond that plenty of intermediate bond funds, all of which should hold me through nearly any stock bear without having to sell any stock funds at a loss.
I do not have a separate account for large, unexpected expenditures during retirement. New roof? -- will use a home equity loan. Down payment for new truck? -- will use cap gains or something.
It's all a crapshoot.
My sources tell me that the bombing of the base in Syria allowed Jeff Christie to escape his captors, and we might be hearing from him soon.
Little insensitive joking about a military bombing in response to civilian chemical gas attack?
House Doc: I heard a sound bite of Gov. Jerry Brown saying the average guy could afford an extra $10 per month to pay this new gas tax. Yeah, no problem, Guv, I'm sure they'll be happy to pony up the dough.
Big Mike said...
Little insensitive joking about a military bombing in response to civilian chemical gas attack?
Big Mike,
Be advised that our dear friend Bacon Boy is neither little or insensitive. And, he is a pillar of our community.
Q. Define: Political Hack
A. Jerry Brown
- California Secretary of State (1971–1975)
- 34th governor of California (1975–1983) (two terms)
- Mayor of Oakland (1999–2007)
- Attorney General of California (2007–2011)
- 39th governor of California (2011–present) (two terms)
People who vote for him, particularly those who vote for him over, and over and over again must suffer from collective amnesia.
Forty-two years of incompetence and fiscal mismanagement. Unbelievable!
We probably would have been better off if Fidel Castro held the above positions. He was much smarter than Jerry and probably more truthful and honest.
frankj: LOL, your gubner sounds just like the insane gubners we're always stuck with here in NYS.
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MadasHELL...I agree with your description of that Brown stain in Sacramento.
Only one thing - I disagree that he is incompetent. He has diligently worked to turn California into a sewer and a third-work territory.
He is a Commie and not a very good one at that. Fidel Castro would have done less damage.
And at the same time, as you proved, he is a FIVE TIME dipper into the public trough.
And probably still raking in some big bucks from his father who was also governor at one time.
I'm a fan of Pig's terrific sense of humor. It's a blessing to find humor in the worst situations. But, I have faith Pig will post to say he crossed the line into bad taste in this instance and not condone more jokes and excuse making.
Just received AKRE shareholder report. (Not sure if BB still recommends this fund)
Considering moving all holding from AKRE to vti index since Akre under performed the S&P for 1,3,5 year and since inception.
https://www.akrefund.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Akre-Focus-Fund-1.31.17-Semi-Annual-Report.pdf
Any thoughts?
.
sn....Thank you for sharing that information about AKRE with us. I don't own it and haven't researched how it is doing.
All three model portfolios have AKREX in them - and if I recall correctly, it has an expense charge much higher than Vanguard's Index Funds.
Bluce, I glad I don't live in California. I heard the sound bite and made the observation from my perch (on a catbird seat) outside the state.
sn:
Akre (AKREX) is a different breed of cat from VTI. Besides being a managed mutual fund (while VTI is an ETF), it is concentrated in just 26 stocks and 5 bonds acc'd to Morningstar. And they had it classified as a Mid Cap Growth fund until recently. It is now categorized as a Large Cap Growth fund. VTI is the entire US market.
I don't know what allocation BB had with this fund but my guess is, most financial types would not view this as a "core" holding because of its concentration. Something comparable in the large cap index category would be VFINX, Vanguard's 500 Index fund which would definitely be a core holding. AKREX beat VFINX going back 1, 3, and 10 years. It was about even over a 5 year period. Going back a year, AKREX tracked VFINX very closely but lost its mojo in late November and its holdings did not enjoy the same run up that VFINX holdings did.
Are we looking at the same AKRE report? The one for Jan 31, 2017 shows that the fund BEAT the SP500 Index by 68 basis points since inception which was 8/31/09.
Anonymous Big Mike said... But, I have faith Pig will post to say he crossed the line into bad taste in this instance and not condone more jokes and excuse making.
Sorry Big Mike, but you won't hear that from me. I don't feel a bit sorry for the scum and their military jets that gassed and murdered little children, among other people. Nor will I feel bad if the animals that bombed the hospital where the victims were taken the next day to hide the evidence are eliminated with extreme prejudice. As for excuse making, OK, I won't bring up the people responsible for leaving that Sarin in the hands of Assad, even thought they promised me that they completed their job, even as late as this January.
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Pig....that post shows MikeE and others that it is not a good idea to poke-a-pig.
And I second everything you said. Anyone who does anything except celebrate President Trump taking out those planes in Syria has real problems.
My complaint to the president (if I made any which I won't) would be that he should have aimed for a better target - like wherever Assad lives.
To Honeybee:
If we bombed Assad himself, I would not shed a tear but I'm wondering where the US is going with this. There are a lot of rebel groups opposed to Assad, some our friends and some not (ISIS). In the big picture, bombing the airfield will change nothing. If the US gets involved in another war in the middle east, IMHO it will end up like Iraq.
.
Moe...There is no way that President Trump will ever involve us in a quagmire. Trust me....
The purpose of hitting the airfield was to take out what was being used to drop the Sarin gas on adults, children and little babies - over 70 people in that one attack died AGONIZING deaths as they gasped for breath.
Hideous as it is for adults, it's UNIMAGINABLE to think of babies and children with their
little helpless bodies gasping for their last breath.
The mission was about 99% successful.
To make a joke about something tied to innocent people getting gassed is extreme cold bad taste. Thats my point.
Anonymous Moe Howard said... In the big picture, bombing the airfield will change nothing
I disagree. It changes the opinions of a lot of people in other countries, including Syria and North Korea and Iran. I agree that it does not really diminish Syria or their capabilities. It was a message that the policies of the last 8 years no longer apply. I don't think the 60 missiles were meant to be more than a statement of "anywhere, anytime of our choosing".
The U.S. will always be criticized when fighting evil. Contrary to that, if a CIC is attempting to run his administration per popularity contest, we all lose as the evil forces will take advantage of weakness. It's not popular to ruffle feathers and take action, but passivity is an invitation to bad actors. The U.S. is not the problem. All the other countries that chose to go the cheap and easy route are the problem. These countries can afford to look peaceful and wise as they know the U.S. will do the right thing and pay for it. They can sit on the sidelines and point fingers. If only we took their wise advice we would all live in harmony. We just need to accept and foster understanding of all the enemies needs. Problem is most of our enemies fully understand modern liberalism and find this the key to defeat the enemy from within.
Pig,
Understood, time will tell.
Friday - one of the worst positive jobs reports +98k as retailers take it on the chin -30k; not good! I think as many will come to, employers don't hire on hope - always it is the bottom line demand push.
If slowing continues this should make Fed rethink shrinking balance sheet this year and slow the rate rises.
Re: Syria will Trump's compassion for Syrian children now get him to reverse himself on allowing Syrian refugees women and children into the US or worse establishing safe zones no fly zones in Syria? Quagmire! Budget buster.
tomahawk cruise missiles cost about 1 million a piece to replace.
War Powers Act? Obama did it right by going to Congress for authorization "Red line or Not" - and Congress did its job by denying Obama - no immediate or imminent US threat just like now! Atrocities around the globe and this was not even close to worst. World's policemen again? I don't think so not if Bannon is able to nudge out Kushner on Presidtial Advice. Regime change goes against all the rhetoric we heard during the election. Populism America first.
Pin prick... and message sent to China re: N. Korea not effective for the N.Korean leader who is BSC and now Russia no more buddy buddy? Real reason for 59 Cruise volley was not to look weak. Thank goodness stock market took it in stride due to limited nature. If step up, this could change stock market outlook IMO.
Not easy investing in these times my Inclination is take the profits and run but holding on a la Bogle advice for now.
Agenda Tax Reform front and center please!
smile
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Smile...President Trump has said that he will negotiate for some of the freeloading Middle East countries to cough up some dough and arrange for some safe zones in Syria so the Syrians can do what they want to do - STAY IN THEIR COUNTRY.
But remember this: It'a a new sheriff in town and he puts AMERICA FIRST.
Now unless you personally will house, feed, educate, provide medical care and clothes for those sad Syrian "children" (many in their teens, twenties and thirties), do not volunteer to force me to pay for them the rest of their lives by bringing them in.
I have family of my own to provide for.
Thank for the retirement advice. It looks like I'm on the right track. I've keep up on Quicken accounting for 30+ years and have a handle on expenses. The rental income is not as bad as thought (loss of tax free SS). I do need to sell the more expensive and demanding investment before taking SS (70 yrs age). Mainly to time market and decrease commitment/responsibility. The real estate investment does work as a hedge on inflation, so hanging on for a few years may be a good thing. I also, need to move more $ out of stocks for 3 years spending money, minimum. Currently, our situation is one year in cash and the rest in stocks.
We will be fully retired in the fall. Probably a little risky having the money in stocks when we plan on spending most of it within the next 7 years. I'm thinking of cashing out most of the stocks for a couple of reasons. If a big drop in market appears, we would have money to reinvest. Otherwise we have what we need with no risk. I have Dodge and Cox stock fund that has high volatility, but also a very well respected investment tool for the long run. I will cash out of that. Fidelity Contra fund has low volatility, and my capstone of long term return. I may stay in that fund. Also, we have a HSA with Vanguard sm cap that has a good return history. It is fairly stable for the classification. The investment is as an alternative to long term health care insurance. I plan on just letting it run. It is a gamble.
HB you need to read my prior post closer. It is not I who expressed compassion it was Trump who reversed his earlier position ostensibly on involvement in Syria (Kushner push). I simply laid out the possible reversals going forward or alternatively if he starts returning to Bannon view. Safe zones is a great sound bite - not going to happen IMO for multitude of reasons the least of which is $.
If these problems were easy to solve they would have been already.
Good luck re: negotiating theory - didn't work on Merkel and not looking good re: Xi.
Investing is not a fools game, realistic assessment and insuring have the facts is essential as you know. This is not political. We all have real money on the line.
Look at the last line of the prior post.
That is what the market wants and expects. Distractions not welcome by mkt.
smile
UFC 182 Cormier v Rumble Johnson tonight should be a good one.
I will be surprised if Cormier doesn't get knocked out however I have seen Cormier do some amazing things and he has a good chin.
smile
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Good points Smile....So let's get back to Bob Brinker and investing.
I rather expect him to put the Starship Moneytalk on auto-pilot tomorrow.
I think Brinker will want to crow a bit on the last jobs report and speculate on what the Fed may do. I get the feeling Brinker is not a Trump fan. You have a better feel on whether the Brink will show so I defer to you.
Too many live shows in a row is probably a safe bet for him not showing LOL.
smile
A full card tomorrow....8 horses starting! Nice purse money in most races.
Gabe
Honeybee,
If THAT Bob's absence rate continues, I think we should see if James 'Mad Dog' Mattis could have a chat with him to put him on the straight and narrow.
frankj said...
sn:
Are we looking at the same AKRE report? The one for Jan 31, 2017 shows that the fund BEAT the SP500 Index by 68 basis points since inception which was 8/31/09.
From the shareholder report
Our record of modest turnover reflects well on our long-term focus and diligence
in identifying business prospects for our concentrated portfolio. The outcome of
this approach has created a portfolio of businesses which we have often owned
for many years. The “long term” is best reflected by five-year and longer periods
for any concentrated, low-turnover equity fund.
Akre Focus Fund Total Annualized Returns as of January 31, 2017
Since Inception
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year (8/31/09)
Akre Focus Fund –
Retail (AKREX) 16.96% 9.05% 14.65% 14.48%
Akre Focus Fund –
Institutional (AKRIX) 17.32% 9.35% 14.97% 14.78%
S&P 500® Index 20.04% 10.85% 14.09% 13.80%
sn:
In your original post you said: "Considering moving all holding from AKRE to vti index since Akre under performed the S&P for 1,3,5 year and since inception."
Turns out we WERE looking at the same data from AKRE report. The numbers you just put up show that did not under perform for all four periods, it beat the SP 500 benchmark for the 5 year and since inception period. But with the performance lagging in the 1 and 3 year periods maybe it is time to change out this high expense ratio fund. It might be interesting to watch this fund and see at what point Bob pulls the plug on it.
Happy investing.
People often compare budget deficits with prior presidents. These figures are not adjusted for inflation, so are not an accurate comparison. I think law enforcement people in the federal government have a mandatory retirement age of 50.
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