As of the March Marketimer, Brinker has made no changes to his fully invested position, and projects that the S&P 500 will overshoot "valuation potential" and trade into the 2400s going forward.
Frankj's deer today:
Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK KION 1460 Monterey
69 comments:
rasputin here. Didn't catch the gist of what he was saying about 4% withdrawals and being one year ahead. Or something like that.
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Sorry, I'm not listening Ras....I can't stand these re-runs that have already repeated several times.
John from SF said:
Hey rasputin, How goes it? Brinker said that basically with any withdrawal from assets you should have 1 year of cash ahead (available) so that you're not depending on current income/dividends. This one year "ahead" is apparently a buffer of available cash. I assume it's intended to avoid a forced sale of assets at an unfortunate time to meet withdrawal needs.
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Is this called retiring on the job?
November 27th: Re-Runs
December 11th: Re-Runs
December 25th: Re-Runs
January 1st: Re-Runs
January 15th: Re-Runs
February 5th: Two Hours Live; Re-run calls 3rd hour
February 19th: Re-runs
March 5th: Re-runs
First time I ever heard Bob mention once you pay off your mortgage early that extra money is now considered "psychic income". Learning from this valuable re-run I guess! Thanks for all you do too HB!
With the tumult growing in Washington, hopefully it translates into a healthy correction of between 5 to 7% in the Market. Have my dry powder at the ready!
Gabe
And Brinker will be at the NASCAR race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway next Sunday so get ready for more rehash. "How sweet it is," for him.
-Joliet Jake
Futures down a bit this evening. Hopefully the market will stabilize during the day tomorrow on the continued optimism of Tax cuts and growth being pushed.
North Korea testing ICBM and testing US not helpful lets see if mkt. can calm itself.
Anyway the mkt wants to push or pull I am ready, but would rather see push higher.
smile
Moving toward the right direction toward a pullback this AM.
Gabe
time to name a guest host. Bob taking off, WLS pre empting for sports is forcing me to listen to Alex Jones on Sunday SHIFTY in Skokie
SHIFTY in Skokie said:
time to name a guest host
Honeybee, are you available for hosting THAT Bob's show three (or four) weekends per month? You certainly have my vote!
JC
Hey! Jerrod, great idea!
I think Honey would make a great fill-in (or maybe permanent . . . ?) host!
But something tells me that (the REAL) Bob might not be so crazy about our wonderful blogess.
Slowly but surely, we are progressing or might I say "regressing" toward a pull back in the Market which should create a buying opportunity at 5 to 7% or perhaps a bit more if the Washington mess heats up more!
Gabe
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JC and Bluce....I sure appreciate the confidence you guys have in me, but what if, when I speak, I sound like Hillary screeching "What difference does it make." Heehee....
(It's a joke for anyone getting out their claws.)
Selling exhaustion possibly today? At the time of this posting futures are positive. No one wants to miss out on further upside rally. Market did a good job of stabilizing itself and soaking up the sellers.
Bull markets rarely end on expectations for upside growth. Exogenous events still on the table. Administration handled N.Korean ICBM testing well by pushing to backburner the issue - all options are on the table - which there are none so N. Korea will continue to advance their ICBM capabilities. I hear there is a secret tech. program initiated under Obama to disrupt the capabilities of N. Korea. China leverage is out till US/China relations are repaired. The Can was quietly and adeptly kicked down the road. If it was easy it would have been solved already.
getsome
hoping for the best prepared for the worst
smile
Gabe,
I'm beginning to think you've shorted the market. ;-)
JC
JC.........Well!
rasputin here. Gabe you mentioned a 5-7% stock market pullback numerous times. Are those individual pullbacks or all totaled up for a major pullback?
Rasputin: The latter. It might be that we do not have a major pullback; we might only need a 5 to 7% pullback and then have the Market spring forward!
Thanks.
Gabe
MONEYTALK substitute fix is MONEY RADIO 1510, Phoenix....hosts, news, and guests are top advisers even with their annuity sales promos SHIFTY in Skokie
Charles Schwab recently announced offering their market cap index funds (total market and S&P 500 and others) with expense ratios as low as .03% with no minimums. Vanguard and Fidelity come close with a $10000 investment (.04%). Could this be the move that causes Mr B to include Schwab in the index fund recommendation discussion? Of course it would take a live show for this to happen. With more daylight on its way as we turn the clocks ahead this weekend, I boldly predict that Cap'n Starship will emerge from the southern Nevada snows and spend more time on air. Or not.
Birdbrain,
The correct answer is "or not".
A bear market happens when stocks decline at least 20 percent from their peaks. A correction is when stocks fall 10%.
From 1900 through 2013, there were 123 corrections (about one per year) and 32 bear markets (one every 3.5 years), according to Ned Davis Research.
Since 2009 the market has been on a rocketsled on rails, straight up.
With the political chaos, the market could tip anytime now. Cash is king. At the current levels, I'm dollarcositing OUT of the market. Currently I'm 33% invested and will begging to dollar cost average back into the market when I see a 10% drop.
No one wants to miss out on further upside rally.
Yep. Bull Market criteria (as of Mar 1):
1) Dow yield 2.36% (below 2.20% bear risk)
2) 1.7 Overvalued/Undervalued Select Blue Chip ratio (2+ bear risk).
3) 15.7% Select Blue Chips Undervalued (below 17% is bear).
Still a bull. Fumes close though. I'll post an update mid-March.
Kilgore Trout: DCA out of the Market is a good strategy in order to salvage one's profits. I'm in the camp that says this Market is overbought. I believe a minimal correction is forthcoming.
Gabe
lol ah that is percolating not peculating
smile
rasputin here. Don't let it get to you Gabe. You seem very anxious. It's only money. The market's going to do what it's going to do.
HB, not sure what happened to my earlier post about Tepper but here it is again with percolating corrected:
squawk guest David Tepper - Appaloosa 3/8/17 on from about 6:30 am E. to about 8:40 am E. info/videos 2 pages of video on this visit:
David Tepper squawkbox guest 3/7/17
Off the top of my dome summary of what I heard this am.: Tepper says market not cheap but growth around the globe is percolating, fed is behind the curve; he is short bonds and still long equities took new position in European equities; wait and see on French elections...
smile
opps 3/8/17 this morning
David Tepper squawkbox guest 3/8/17
smile
Gabe,
Please stop messing with the market. Let it grow!
Thank you.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
JC
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Smile....What happened to it is that it was sent about 3am and said it was for 15 minutes, but I was asleep then and for the next three hours. Pointless to post it just so readers can wade through it.
From "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree" edition:
Tim Kaine's son arrested after protesters interrupt pro-Trump rally.
In a way I sort of feel sorry for this kid. He has incurred a lot of unfortunate events, such as:
1. He is the son of Tim Kaine
2. His given name is Linwood Michael Kaine. Linwood ????
3. His nickname is Woody. Woody ????
4. He must have missed his health and personal grooming classes.
5. He must have missed his civics classes.
6. He has been completely immersed and indoctrinated in far-left wacko liberalism.
However, mommy and daddy still love him."
“We love that our three children have their own views and concerns about current political issues,” they said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/08/tim-kaines-son-arrested-pro-trump-rally-met-violent-protest/
rasputin here.You have to respect a guy with the nickname "Woody".
During the last 8 years we have suffered with ‘Ohama Titanic Syndrome".
Now, in a cruel twist of fate (and with Gabe's help), we may be enduring further pain due to 'Ohama Titanic Syndrome’.
Thanks a lot, Gabe! ;-)
Why ominous sounding ‘ Ohama Titanic Syndrome’ has stock-market investors fretting
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-ominous-ohama-titanic-syndrome-may-signal-a-downturn-for-stock-market-investors-2017-03-07?siteid=rss&rss=1
~ or ~
https://goo.gl/dSwaca
JC
Can't wait to hear Brinker's explanation for that +32K manufacturing job growth number, the best since March 2012. Remember, Brinker claims U.S manufacturing will continue in a downward spiral because of globalization and technology. We'll see if President Trump's policies can prove him wrong.
The Market is going in the right direction.
Gabe
This is a personal message for Bob Brinker. It's good to keep your words sweet, Mr. Brinker - just in case you have to eat them.
New Jobs Report
JC: As you are fully aware......investors make money in down markets as well!
Gabe
rasputin here - Hey Honey, just got a message that jb king died. No other info.
Jim,
Manufacturing jobs have been going down as exports have gone up. The emerging technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence will have as great an impact as the invention of electricity. Factories that employed 5,000 will have 30 people on staff. Truck driving is the largest occupation in 29 states. The human drivers consume 50% of the expenses and can only work 11 hours a day. Say by by to those jobs.
Even the low paid schmucks in Indonesia won't have jobs as you will 3D print your tennis shoes.
Saw a 3D printer build a house in 24 hours.
Education is the only way forward.
The poorly educated must be allowed to starve as Darwin intends.
Stocks dropping. Bonds dropping. Ginnie Maes and TIPS dropping. Oil dropping. Gold dropping. Dollar getting strong Jobs report strong. Guaranteed rate hike, IMO.
Gabe is on to something. Get your dry powder ready.
(P.S. Do not admit to anybody that you took financial advice from a Pig)
rasputin here- Gabe stock correction watch.
Wed.vti close 1.54% off of all-time closing high.
Pig said...
"Stocks dropping. Bonds dropping. Ginnie Maes and TIPS dropping. Oil dropping. Gold dropping. Dollar getting strong Jobs report strong. Guaranteed rate hike, IMO."
Bacon boy, you seem quite distressed. Have there been any notable changes in Pig Droppings? Perhaps you should pay a visit to the Veterinarian for a checkup?
Rasputin,
VTI is an excellent ETF. I do not currently hold it, but I do hold several ETFs that are quite similar, namely SCHB and and ITOT.
The charts on these three funds are quite similar. When looking at the respective charts we can see the RSI signalling "Overbought" conditions in early February, 2017. The overbought conditions have recently been reduced and resolved.
What gives be some hope is that all three funds are currently above their 20 Day EMA, albeit by a very slim margin. If their 20 Day EMA is breached then it is cause for scrutiny and concern, particularly if those breaches occur on increasing volume.
Here are those three charts:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VTI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88477377271
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCHB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08829076317
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ITOT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p45535999216
Here's hoping that today we don't repeat the ugly final-hour selloffs of the past few days upon market close.
JC
Moving in the "right" direction. Market unable to hold on to its earlier gains.
Gabe
Our Barn posted its 9th winner today! Hooray!
The ECB left interest rates unchanged.
If the Number tomorrow is good and the Market falters.....we continue on the slow path toward a correction.
Gabe
I predict that the stock market will either go up or down.
rasputin here- Gabe stock correction watch.
Thurs vti close off 1.49 from closing high.
Honeybee,
A book you likely will be interested in;
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/03/09/reasons-to-vote-for-democrats-book-is-an-amazon-best-seller-but-theres-a-hilarious-twist/
Honeybee,
What the H is going on in Santa Cruz? Are these people paid-for operatives of Soros?
http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/03/09/womens-day-protest-groups-clash-santa-cruz/
.
Madashell....The answer to your question is "YES" - that and just plain crazy, wild-eyed idiots!
Gabe stock correction watch:
Troubling news - Dow futures up 55 points.
JC
goldilocks nonfarm jobs report report. as usual adp not insync. with nonfarm payrolls with adp being the outlier. Fed should be steady as she goes. Global growth cues (Draghi yesterday) no recession on horizon. TINA market. I'm still looking for exit point but hopefully it will be much higher. Futures up.
smile
The Market should have posted better numbers in light of a very good Jobs number!
Gabe
rasputin here-Gabe stock correction watch
Friday vti close 1.13% off closing high
Stock Market churn till we get past two immediate hurdles 1) fed funds rate hike next week and 2) healthcare legislation
Actually considering 1 & 2 the market holding steady with churn is a positive. Insiders have not been buying since the last big dip last year.
Boat is tipping with those on side of wanting a correction so they can put cash on sidelines in at lower prices (saw this yesterday real time from panel of 6 or 7 on Options Action) - market confounds this usually but who knows, certainly not me, but growth is only thing which will counter and push us higher.
Oil price decline is also a factor IMO.
smile
Glad we are finally getting jobs numbers that we can trust. LOL
All three indices finished down for the week! Oil is blamed by most. I'm keeping watch for a pull back next week.
Gabe
gabe said... All three indices finished down for the week! Oil is blamed by most.
Fox Business has been watching the small caps, and they did not do well last week.
Well...well....our Barn scored its 10th winner of this racing season! Hooray!
Gabe
Pig, SmallCaps have risen 335% since 2009 so expect a correction. Lock in those gains people. It's gonna get ugly.
It's all different this time. It's "a new era."
Stocks will increase 10-20% per year from here til eternity. Get rich: buy low, sell high -- and don't forget to stock up on tulip bulbs.
The "Roaring Twenties 2.0" are only three years away!
Bob (not That Bob)....What are you complaining about?
I don't see any anonymous posts on this thread.
So what off-topic post is it that is bothering you, pookie?
I miss junior's.........err........I mean Anonymous' posts. They are better then (sic) the Sunday comics.
Honeybee,
The above post by "Bob (not That Bob!)" was not a post from me.
It seems that our LGBTQIA rainbow poster-imposter is attempting to get his-her-it-whatever jollies again.
Honeybee, with that said however, please feel free to continue to call me "pookie."
Well, if all goes as "planned" with the Fed raising rates......savers will get a boost on their passbook savings albeit a bit later or down the road!
Gabe
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Okay, Pookie. I will throw out the trash. :)
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