STOCK MARKET....Brinker comments: The S&P 500 Index is now at 2378 and the Dow is 20,914 - both very close to all-time-highs.....the S&P is the better index because it is broader and more representative of the market.
Honey EC: Today, Brinker told a caller that he was fine with buying the bond portion of Marketimer portfolio III, but recommends dollar-cost-averaging stock portions. Marketimer portfolio III is balance 50% stock (including 10% Vanguard International VFWIX) and 50% bond mutual funds.
FEDERAL RESERVE NOW ON A TEAR AFTER 8 YEARS OF ZERO....BB comments....The FOMC raised interest rates 0.25% this week....they consider 3% "normalized" rate....they are talking a gradual pace because the economy is not showing signs of accelerating growth....if we had 8 more quarter percent increases, we'd be at 3%....
JANET YELLEN'S FUTURE IS IN HANDS OF THE NEW SHERIFF....BB said: "It's true that Chair Janet's term as Fed Chair ends in February of next year....Whether she is reappointed is entirely up to the president."
GOLD HORROR SCAM.....Caller Greg from Missouri took money from his 401K and got suckered into putting it in gold and then silver. He turned $100,000 turned into $40,000. Thanks to dRahme, here is a clip of the conversation and Brinker's reaction - begins about 8 minutes in.
Honey EC: Brinker is on record saying that the only way to buy gold and be sure you aren't being scammed is to buy GLD. Matter of fact, he had GLD as a recommended Marketimer investment for about 5 years.
BITCOINS.....BB does not consider bitcoins a legitimate currency at all....He regards them as speculation. Thanks to dRahme, here is a short clip of Brinker's comments - begins about 3 minutes in.....
WHAT IS M-1 AND M-2.....BB comments: The federal money supply is now at a healthy rate of growth as FOMC maintains an accommodative policy.
* M-1 includes: Physical paper/Currency; coins; Travelers Checks; Checking Accounts.HOW TO TAKE REQUIRED MINIMUM DISTRUBUTIONS.....Darrell from Texas wanted to know the best way to raise the cash needed when RMDs need to be paid. In general, it's okay to have dividends from investments pay into money market accounts. Brinker gives more details in this short clip - thanks to dRahme.
* M-2 includes Money Market; Savings accounts, and all of M-1
*Jim from Texas, has $5 million in Brinker's Moneytalk portfolio III, and two homes worth $600K. He wanted to know if the homes should be included when he figured his 50/50 asset allocation in the balanced portfolio III.
BB replied: Not since they are personal properties rather than rentals. but it is part of your net worth....I salute you - go to the head of the class.BRINKER'S NASCAR CRASH AND BURN.... BB said: "It's a big day here in La Vegas, Nevada. The big Nascar race at the Motor Speedway, which is under way as we speak. I am not a fan. Lots of people in town for March madness.....We don't care."
HONEY EC: Maybe someone can explain why BB would say that Nascar is in Las Vegas today when it was actually last week.
Steve Thompson said...FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY - UBER AND AIRBNB
I was working in the garage when I heard old bob come on. I wasn't even sure he was still on the air. At first i thought it was last weekends show as he said NASCAR was in Vegas this weekend and they were there last week. He then mentioned the FOMC meeting so I guess for bob batting .500 is as good as it gets. LOL Coin flipping con man
March 19, 2017 at 2:35 PM
Bob’s guest was Brad Stone during the third hour of Moneytalk on March 19, 2017. Brad’s book is called “The Upstarts.” It has a very long subtitle which I won’t attempt here, but suffice it to say the book is about Uber and AirBnB, two recently formed companies that are changing the businesses they’re in. It sounded like this was Brad’s second appearance as a third hour guest. Before he knows it, he’ll be qualified for the Official MoneyTalk coffee mug, baseball cap and pocket slide rule.
Editorial comments in italics as usual.
Why write this book? The author said he was looking for another entrepreneurial story after having completed a book on Amazon a few years ago.
A traditional taxi driver in New York City wouldn’t be happy with Uber drivers cutting in on his action. The taxi medallion costs 7 figures in New York and now a medallion isn’t worth what it used to be, given Uber drivers running around. The author pointed out that some parts of the city are well-served by taxis whereas others are not. Uber can plug in to the parts of the city where taxis aren’t readily available. While taxi rates are fixed and regulated by the city, Uber charges for rides based on the strength of demand and availability of drivers.
When the founders of Uber were pitching their idea to investors, only 15 out of 165 were interested. The author said the founders didn’t come across as tech geniuses and the old adage “don’t get into a stranger’s car” must have been “front of mind” during the presentation. The author said prospective investors also expected regulatory fights in every city. Bob and Brad wandered off into the weeds with a discussion of the recent video that showed the CEO of Uber arguing with an Uber driver. Brad explained this was an Uber “Black” driver, a part of the company that is like a limo or Town car service. These drivers are better compensated and apparently the driver in the video was upset that regular Uber drivers were taking away business.
Bob asked about vetting of drivers. The author said potential customers can read the reviews of other passengers.
This sounded weak to me. From time to time I’ve seen stories of Uber drivers doing this or that. Later in the interview I believe I heard him say Uber started up without much of a human resource department and they’re trying to catch up.
Uber is toying with driverless cars but Google is ahead of them. Uber bought a company called Otto, then got sued by a company called Waymo because the guy who set up Otto allegedly swiped proprietary info. Bob quoted venture capitalist Peter Thiel as saying Uber is ethically challenged. The author pointed out that Thiel is an investor in Lyft, a competitor.
http://www.recode.net/2017/2/23/14717432/waymo-otto-uber-anthony-levandowski-lawsuit
Following the break Bob gave out the number for people to call, then turned to AirBnB the other company Brad wrote about. Like Uber, it was dreamed up in the Bay Area. The founders weren’t tech geniuses either; two of the three were in the design business. They made their home available to guests when there was a national conference for designers in San Francisco and all the hotels were booked. After that, it was off to the races: this company is worth about $30 billion after being in existence for 8 years!
Brad identified two types of AirBnB “landlords.” The good ones generally live in the house or unit and may just rent out one bedroom. The “bad” ones are absentee owners who try to keep their unit rented a majority of the time. These types of rentals lead to conflict in the neighborhood, or condo with other owners who weren’t expecting a transient population of “guests.”
There is also the fact that the AirBnB units aren’t subject to the zoning regs that hotels are, and they don’t have to comply with the safety regs that hotels do. The author said these types of rentals are popular with people and pointed out that people in San Francisco voted down propositions that would limit their activity.
Bob brought up President Trump as someone who might be opposed to AirBnB activities seeing as how he owns hotels, condos, etc. I think it was Bob who quoted the President as saying he would not allow AirBnB activity in his buildings. The guest didn’t have much to say other than there was “no real issue” in these holdings.
On a personal note: My son, also known as Mr. Genius and sometimes as Mr. Cheap has had a couple AirBnB experiences. He and some buddies rented an apartment in Brooklyn for a weekend. They put their stuff inside and then upon leaving and locking the door one of them broke the key off in the lock. They had a hard time getting ahold of the owner, but they finally did.
He rented a boat for an overnight stay in Baltimore harbor somewhere close to the stadium where he and his girlfriend planned to watch an Orioles game. $35 for one night. Onassis’ yacht this was NOT. His girlfriend took one look at it and suddenly remembered an important assignment due as part of her graduate school studies. She took an Uber to the train station for the ride back to DC. He slept on the boat but did volunteer to me it was sort of “scroungy.”
Honey here: Thanks for another great guest-author summary. Personally, I don't care for either of these "startups." And I sure don't want one of the Airbnb's in my neighborhood.
JEFFCHRISTIE, WHO SKIPPED TOWN LAST WEEK, IS STILL OUT OF CIRCULATION
I recommend you keep up your Moneytalk studies, so when he returns, you will be prepared for his Final Exam Questions.
Brinker's guest-author was Brad Stone: The Upstarts: How Uber, Airbnb, and the Killer Companies of the New Silicon Valley are Changing the World
Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK KION 1460 Monterey
103 comments:
I don't agree with Bob on the RMD withdrawals. My wife and I take ours from our bond fund each year. Why put the interest and dividends in a money market fund and earn nothing?
I was working in the garage when I heard old bob come on. I wasn't even sure he was still on the air. At first i thought it was last weekends show as he said NASCAR was in Vegas this weekend and they were there last week. He then mentioned the FOMC meeting so I guess for bob batting .500 is as good as it gets. LOL Coin flipping con man
Whoa!!! Did I hear BB mention the name of the President?! It was actually in a "left-handed positive way" when he was talking about the high cost of drugs.
MikeE, if you do that won't you eventually upset your asset allocation?
(while I'm typing this message Bob is advising someone to do the same thing -- 45 min. into the 2nd hour.)
Bob hates the fact that BTC completely blew the equities market (and others) out of the water over the past couple of years. What he does is dither around semantics regarding what defines a currency--not so cleverly using price compared to fiat currencies as a basis. I'm sure he thought real estate was a great investment in 2006 and certainly there wasn't any fraud or illegal dealings going on with that!
To frnkj,
Yep, you will upset your asset allocation some but I don't worry much about that as I am quite aggressive anyway. Being aggressive has served me well over the last many years. I have taken out over 200 thousand in RMDs over the last few years and I still have more in the IRA than I started with.
Regarding RMDs, which will be coming for me in a few years: The idea is to have enough cash on hand so you can avoid selling securities under what might be adverse market conditions to cover your RMD.
Brinker finally put to rest the rumor spread by an anonymous poster here many times
that claimed Brinker always takes a vacation day in March to go to the NASCAR race. He clearly stated today " I am not a fan". The poster obviously doesn't understand Brinker as well as they thought they did.
To Bluce,
I agree with that but I take my RMD out of my short term bond fund which doesn't fluctuate much.
.
Steve Thompson...What's up with Bob Brinker saying Nascar in is Vegas today? According to the internet info I can find, it was on the 11th.
Brinker took that day off of Moneytalk and pretended re-runs were the real thing - fooling most listeners.
Now who is trying to fool with this? Makes zero sense - OR did he record the opening to this show to play last week and mess up?
Honeybee said: did he record the opening to this show to play last week and mess up?
Nascar was in Vegas on the 12th. Its in Phoenix today. BB was live on the 12th, not at the track. Sounds like he either recorded the intro last week or has no clue what's going on in his own home town.
.
Biker...You are correct. Brinker was live last week. The week before was recorded.
Very puzzling all around.... He seemed befuddled at least three times today.
Honeybee has a new photo to go with her posts. A lily of some sort?
.
Frankj....It's actually an orchid..... :)
Honeybee said... He (brinker) seemed befuddled at least three times today.
He was pretty befuddled before, during, and after the QQQ "BUY NOW" call.
Nothing new from the Bob today. Bull markets are boring or so I'm told. Starting to believe it. The economy is not on fire but as long as the spectre of tax cuts & govt spending exists With low rates Wall st is easy st for some. Buffet is optomistic & he's old & rich so I suppose things will get only get better for us Americans.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/uber-president-jones-quits-amid-turmoil-and-search-for-coo/ar-BByoLfO?li=BBnb7Kz
Story that Uber's president quit. This is not the guy who got into the argument with the Uber driver.
As Hank Williams would exclaim, "Ohhh Yeeaahhh!" See that? Steve T. noticed BB's direct references to posts on Honey's blog. Congrats Honey, gotta think that BB is reading your space.
-KB, I almost won
By the way, the reason that Bob was so sardonic on Sunday was because his beloved #1 seed Villanova got beat by Wisconsin on Saturday. As Bob would say, "Full stop".
BTW, WTF does "full stop" mean? I heard Shep Smith use that on a Fox radio blurb last week. What is it, some sort of cutsie media stupid-ass product differentiation device?
Now I know why Millenials don't listen to "old timers" radio. It stanks.
-Rodman
Honeybee,
FAKE SPEWS!
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...
I believe Gabe will get his correction this week!
JC
March 19, 2017 at 3:27 PM
-----------------------------------------------------------------
JC
OMG, the world just snapped into place! Bob recorded the NASCAR disclaimer last weekend "in case" he wanted to dash to the track on short notice, utilizing the helicopter.
He declined, but then on this Sunday's show they had use a "drop" (pre-recorded tape) to cover Bob's uncontrollable crying when Villanova lost to Wiscon's Badgers on Saturday night.
The easiest drop "in the can" was Bob's NASCAR denial, so they "dropped it" into the broadcast stream. As you know, radio engineers always need more vitamin D, meaning they don't get much sun, especially in NYC. It's an excusable kink.
Not Imus
Bob apparently is not aware that it is not necessary to sell shares to raise cash in an IRA to meet an RMD obligation. If one prefers, shares in an IRA may instead be transferred out in kind into a taxable account to make an RMD. Any tax liability thus created may then be satisfied with with other cash resources.
HONEY EC: Maybe someone can explain why BB would say that Nascar is in Las Vegas today when it was actually last week.
Honeybee,
An additional question if I may:
Maybe someone can explain why BB (who was a car race announcer in a much, much earlier life) would display such an odious, infantile attitude towards NASCAR. In fact, if he hates NASCAR so much why comment on it at all? How is NASCAR germane to "money talk" other than the fact that it brings millions of dollars into his local economy?
Finally, what's next...will he be bashing Rachael Ray?
JC
Scheduled vote for phase 1 of health care bill is Thursday. It is unlikely Ryan would schedule the vote if he did not have the count on his side. Senate markup then reconcile piece could add drama for the markets.
So market should rejoice (short covering) Thurs. on this bit of news.
Market seems stable at these nose bleed levels considering all that is going on.
smile
Just guessing here, but maybe the downside of transferring shares from an IRA to a taxable account to satisfy an RMD is that the transfer gets taxed as ordinary income, as any cash transfer would, and then later when the shares are sold in the taxable account a capitol gains tax will be paid, resulting in 2 taxations. If shares are sold in the IRA there's no capital gains tax. Just my knee-jerk reaction to the thought.
Any accountants care to weigh in?
-not Buffet
Honeybee,
Not my post:
Mad as HELL! said...
JC: I remember Bob mentioning he was going to take his grandkids to a NASCAR race. I never remember him saying that he was a NASCAR fan.
March 20, 2017 at 11:22 AM
Honeybee, I am moving on. So, if you see any "Mad as HELL!" posts after this, please do not post them.
Thanks again for all you and the BRG do, and good luck to all (except for the dumb-ass troll).
.
Mad as Hell! Since I don't let that bastard-troll get me down, I'm a little surprised that you would.
I notice that I am not hearing from Gabe much lately either....
Are you aware that that this coward has been working at getting me, and now my posters, shut down for 15 years?
He is best ignored. Give him a victory and it will encourage him.
Mad! Don't leave! You will be missed.
Can't you sign in and have a regular name?
not Buffett: I'm not an accountant, I hope one will join in. You're right that if the transferred-in shares are sold later there would (could) be a capital gains tax. I guess it depends on the basis they bring in with them and what the share value does while it is in the personal account.
Honeybee and Bluce,
Thank you both for your nice comments. I guess I overreacted.
I remain,
Mad as HELL!
.
Mad as Hell....As Bluce pointed out, there is a good option of signing up with a Google account and using that to easily sign in.
That way, no one can imp you handle.
not Buffett and others: On the question of basis when shares are transferred "in-kind" to a personal account to fulfill an RMD withdrawal.. Schwab says the basis transfers with the shares.
I asked about selling fund X with a low basis and buying fund Y within the Trad IRA and then transferring the RMD in the form of shares of fund Y with a higher basis.
The representative said "ask your CPA or tax advisor about that."
We aren't in the catbird seat, but at least we know what we do not know.
If Mad as HELL remains . . .
Bluce is Happy as HELL. ;)
frankj, not Buffet and others:
What is the point of transferring shares "in-kind" from an IRA to a taxable account to satisfy an RMD (or to make any distribution)? If transferring from a taxable account at one broker to a taxable account at another, you want to avoid selling and generating capital gains, so in-kind makes sense. Since there is no capital gain inside the IRA, there is no reason not to sell and then buy whatever you want in your taxable account with the withdrawn proceeds, whether the same fund or another, on the same date or another. Transferring in-kind from an IRA is just an invitation for the broker to make mistakes that are not in your favor. If Schwab says the basis transfers with the shares you should avoid such a transfer at all cost!!!
This is a very old valentine article written by a CPA, but illustrates the problems that people had in the past and perhaps are still having in this century:
http://money.cnn.com/2000/02/14/pensions/q_retire_slott/
I think Bob knows plenty about NASCAR. You may recall that he used to be an auto racing announcer in a "previous lifetime" (his words).
The way I do it ain't complicated. I just take the RMD from my bond fund account every year as the bond fund doesn't fluctuate much. This may change your asset allocation some but I don't worry about that. I am kind of aggressive on my investing and I have more in there now than I started with after taking out more than $200K.
Different strokes for different folks I guess.
The comments on RMD withdrawals are interesting. Using dividends for RMD withdrawals seems to be the best path for me.
I don't listen to BB anymore, just follow this website. Its nice to hear other people hate the multi-milliionaires who call into this radio show.
My take on the transfer in kind of a stock out of an IRA to a taxable account is your new cost basis of the stock is the value of the stock at the time of the move to the taxable account.
example say you have $100,000 of stock ABC with cost basis of 1,000 in an IRA and to satisfy an RMD you do an in kind transfer to your taxable account. You pay ordinary income on the 100,000 of stock ABC and your new step up basis is $100,000.
The reason someone would do this is to maintain the position in stock ABC. Going forward if stock ABC continues to appreciate and is now worth 1,000,000 5 years later you decide to sell you would pay cap gains tax on 900,000 (1,000,000 - 100,000) not on 999,000 (1,000,000 - 1,000).
smile
Thanks to Biker and the article by Ed Slott we now know what we did not know previously. Which is, if you do an in-kind transfer of a security to satisfy an RMD the basis becomes the value of the security at the time of transfer. But as Mr. Slott points out, you can't rely on your brokerage to make this adjustment, you have to keep track.
Biker's suggestion to sell in the IRA and buy in the personal account avoids all this. In the end, all we're doing here fleshing out a discussion of ways to take an RMD that started with a question Bob answered on last Sunday's show.
BTW, Ed Slott is a great source of info on IRA distributions, inheriting, etc. He would make a great 3rd hour guest. I don't know if he's ever been on.
Smile:
As stated in the article I linked above, you are correct about what the basis should be. The potential complication arises when your broker tracks basis differently. IF you sell stock ABC in the IRA, transfer cash to personal account, buy stock ABC same day, you maintain your position and avoid the unnecessary hassle of your broker reporting the wrong basis to the IRS. The average Joe investor would just pay taxes based on the broker's statement of basis and thus be taxed twice on any capital gains made within the IRA (99,000 in your example) (first at ordinary income tax rates on withdrawal and second at capital gains rate upon sale of shares).
Wine Guy: I don't hate millionaires, but I do resent what is probably common knowledge: That Bobby screens calls to get millionaire callers through who are sure to lick Bobby's boots and thank HIM for their wealth. Then Bobby can make a big production about how humble he is (hahahahahahaha!) and not take any of the credit.
But the shell game has the desired effect: Noobie listeners will fall for the snake oil and buy his newsletter, hoping to get rich too.
R/I the beginning of a correction?
Gabe
Bluce,
I don't disagree with your comments on BB. While I agree his newsletter is vastly overpriced, I found the newsletter and radio show to be a good educational tool when I started serious investing (in the early days). I did not use his model portfolios but I did use the concept behind them.
Bluce, I would be truly astounded if .0001% of "the millionaire callers" would be able to produce bona fides to backup their claims.
JC
.
Jerrod..I've wondered about that.
Also, when do they cross the line and become just plain braggarts.
R/O a Black Swan Event!
Gabe
Honeybee,
In my opinion there are no braggarts:
1. I believe that less than .0001% of "the millionaire callers" are legitimate. While they may be braggarts there is less that one call per year in this category. Hence the maximum number of braggart callers is less than one, or effectively zero.
2. The fake/staged "millionaire callers" are all pseudo-braggarts. However, since this group is based on lies and deception their "braggart license" is null and void and has been duly rescinded.
JC
.
Gabe, please verify by email that the last two posts are yours today or I will have to think they are not and remove them.
Also, please do not use acronyms.....Not all understand them.
thanks for the short clips to listen to. do not subscribe,WLS preempts for sports and no stations podcasting, I can get my B.B fix even if he sounds "a bissel samished" (yiddish) SHIFTY in Skokie
To All:
R/I This means Rule In.
R/O This means Rule Out.
Thanks,
Gabe
Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...I believe Gabe will get his correction this week!
Nice call. Can I borrow your crystal ball? (just for 10 minutes or so)
Pig: Luck supersedes at times!
Thanks,
Gabe
Honeybee and Pig:
Pig said...
Anonymous Jerrod Clarkson said...I believe Gabe will get his correction this week!
OK, now I'm really confused. I didn't say that. And (other than on the REAL Bacon Boy's post), I don't see it on this thread.
Honeybee, was that one of the JC poseur comments that was deleted?
Maybe I need a wacky terbacky scrip from the Doc?
Anyway, sorry to disappoint you Mr. Bacon Boy, but I didn't say that - and I don't have a crystal ball. Plus, after today's market I don't think I can afford to buy one.
Would a Magic 8 Ball suffice? I think THAT Bob uses one. :-)
JC
Honeybee,
Found it! (How soon I forget).
Yes, it was from the JC poseur and you deleted it.
I am going out for a while to have a nice, brisk walk in the rain.
JC
Wine Guy said: I don't disagree with your comments on BB. While I agree his newsletter is vastly overpriced, I found the newsletter and radio show to be a good educational tool when I started serious investing (in the early days). I did not use his model portfolios but I did use the concept behind them.
I've never subbed to his newsletter nor had any idea what his portfolios looked like. But I have been listening to him since 1990 and have learned a lot of useful things.
That was all well and good until I caught him doing 180s on several things over the years (index vs. managed funds, tax the rich more vs. taxes are too high -- as two examples) and he started losing credibility with me. Then never admitting he got blindsided in 2008 (as nearly everyone did) sealed the deal for me.
As they say, there is good in everyone. Even Hitler liked animals, lol
Biker, agree your way is easier for average Joe taxpayer and avoids confusion via reliance on Broker's potentially incorrect basis info.
My recollection is the Taxpayer is responsible for the basis info. for a simple stock sale.
I track all my purchases and sales via spreadsheet.
smile
p.s. Thursday should be interesting day for the market. The Talk today causing slide is there are enough Republicans on the no side of bill to kill Trump's frame-worked health bill. As seen the market did not like this. LOL I'm pulling out my shopping list. As I stated and I could be wrong but between Trump's arm twisting yesterday and I think Ryan is smart enough not to schedule a vote unless he has the votes needed to pass that this will pass the House. Problem will come in phase 3 when they need Dems to add back the cost savings and ACA sweeteners everyone likes.
Russiagate and general incompetence is derailing the administrations plans.
Tax proposals, infrastructure spending, skyrocketing debt is going to crush the Trump rally. Cash is king folks.
Re: Trumpcare:
Perhaps I am looking at this simplistically (or perhaps I am a genius?)
I have been on basic Medicare for several years. And while I hate to admit it, I am VERY impressed with the coverage, service and efficiency.
So I pose the question - Why Reinvent the Wheel? Have any of the Wizards of Washington ever considered utilizing a new (additional) version of Medicare as a Obamacare replacement? All of the infrastructure exists (but obviously would need to be beefed up, built out and fine-tuned).
What am I missing?
Mad as Hell,
the problem with healthcare coverage is healthcare coverage. No matter what is done it costs. Obamacare attempts to mandate all with insurance to lower risk pool and therefore cost, problem is younger healthy opted out to pay penalty which leaves risk pool expensive. TrumpCare attempts to isolate the highrisk pool and subsidize it to affordable. The cost of that is going to be thru the roof. No matter what the cost of really sick people is expensive. That cost has to be paid for. The question is how you pay for it.
Medicare or single payer option is what Obama wanted but instead tried to get Republicans onboard by using the RomneyCare model.
There is a fix but it is so political now, you can't get there. Need both sides to work this through, but not how it has worked or is working now.
Just my take.
smile
rasputin here-Gabe stock market correction watch.
Wednesday vti close 2.20% off closing high.
Tehehe!!! Sooo funny, during Sunday's 2nd hr, Tim from Fairbanks called the show to say he bought an RV for $170,000 and wanted to pay it off with IRA money, asking Bob for his opinion.
You can actually hear Bob exhale (sigh) and shake his head thru the speakers (28:19 of OnDemand 2nd hr) as if from the extreme frustration! Not kidding, listen closely. Just noticed it today.
I don't know whether to congratulate him for internalizing his audience's fate so deeply, or scratch my head and wonder, "Is he taking the failure of the masses much too personally?"
Either way, I guess it's better than Edelman shouting at me.
Friendly Tow, Inc.
Jerrod Clarkson said... Anyway, sorry to disappoint you Mr. Bacon Boy, but I didn't say that - and I don't have a crystal ball.
OK.....in that case maybe I'll go suck up to the phony JC guy who made the good call. :--)
Once Impy (the imposter) made a call under the ID of LibertyPilgrim that was within 1/2 of 1% of the market drop (or top). (can't remember which, but he beat the heck out of Brinker on that call). He can be pretty accurate at times.
Unfortunately some piggish fella imped his ID and that really ticked him off................ My picture still shows the 2nd half of the imped ID. LibertyP........
Will we see a 6th day of Dow retreat?
Gabe
Methinks Bacon Boy has been out back smoking wacky tabaccy with the REAL Bob again.
I didn't understand anything in his last post.
Q. Define seditious, moronic a**hole.
A. Chucky Schumer
Why? (Just one of thousands of reasons): Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer said Thursday that Democrats will attempt to filibuster Judge Neil Gorsuch’s nomination.
Bluce,
The pigpost is a bit mysterious to say the least.
It's breakfast time out here on the left coast. Maybe I'll see if I purchase a some brownies and/or Snackin' Cake in order to achieve some degree of clarity with respect to Bacon Boy's post.
:-)
Mad: I've despised Schumer since before he was my senator, and was in the House representing a Commie district in NYC. Is there anyone to the left of him in DC?
He has to be the lowest form of life on the planet.
oh my - No Vote today on TrumpCare. I thought Ryan was smarter than this. Ameteur hour folks. Should not have happened.
Market taking it well so far.
smile
.
Smile....it is not "TrumpCare." Please don't use that term again.
HB, I will certainly respect your sensitivity on this, but how about a little consistency. You had no problem with the term when Mad as Hell posted on March 21, 2017 at 6:58 PM and used the term. My response to MaH on that date also used the term. What changed for you in two days? If it passes it will be referenced as the President's bill with his name on it just like Obama - but for Trump especially if it does well. Be Proud it is what Trump promised. It's only demeaning if you do not look at it positively IMO. No one will reference the bill as AHCA if it passes into law, so you might want to display your pride and accept the term. It is not pejorative. It is a tough job for any President to get healthcare legislation signed into law. Many have tried only a few have succeeded. It is a major accomplishment, why would Trump not want his name associated with accomplishment?
The President always takes credit and accepts blame for anything happening during his Administration if the POTUS has any sense of honor and responsibility. Trump's fingerprints are on the Bill since he established the parameters of the health bill for Ryan. It will not pass into law without Trump's signature. It is as much Trump's bill as it was for Obama who did not write ACA which you and others had no problem referring to ACA as ObamaCare.
I hope you post this and let your readers give you some feedback as well.
smile
Today - First time this has happened to me:
My Schwab Account Daily G/L: $00.00, 00.00%
My Fidelity Account Daily G/L: $00.00, 00.00%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLkLOzh9ppQ
JC
Will we see a 7th day of Dow retreat!
Gabe
.
Smile if Mad, or anyone used it before, I missed it.
I apologize for that inconsistency.
I never cared much for using the word "obamacare" either, but my understanding was that he did that himself.
If President Trump ever does that with this new bill - which may now be in trouble - then we can do it too. But I really don't want that to happen. It's too much like big brother for me.
Jerrod, FWIW: with an AA of roughly 45/55 (portfolio beta of .4) my Schwab account went up .05% today.
I would like to qualify my comment last week on John Bogle. He is a national treasure as far as the average investor is concerned, but on his comments about what was "wrong" with the Brexit vote was frankly disappointing. I applaud the Brits, and as foolish as Cameron was politically to do that, it was a great moment for freedom.
Futures still positive just after GOP meeting just ended. Trump conveying no more dealing and insisting on up or down vote tomorrow.
This does not look good for this bill imo.
The market may still be ok because there is nothing stopping GOP from moving on to Tax reform. The only thing I would say if Trump is unable to fulfill the repeal replace promise he has expended political capital and Republicans now see there is no penalty for standing against Potus. If this pans out like this the market will eventually sniff this out and we take out the some of the market gains since election. I might need to dust off some of my Fibonacci retracement info.
Also deragulation etc. is still a viable positive for this administration
smile
The pigpost is a bit mysterious to say the least.
Long, old, borrring story. No need to go into it. A few people here would remember it. Other than that, it has zero significance, and zero importance.
I sometimes like to show the lurking imposter that others have long memories also.
Honeybee,
Remember in 2008 when starry-eyed California voters (unfortunately) approved the proposition for high-speed rail? At that time it was costed out at $10 Billion. Well it appears that it now is going to cost $64 Billion. (Sure it will).
Assuming this unneeded, unaffordable, atrocious, moronic monstrosity is actually built in the coming decades (or centuries) I am absolutely certain that the final cost will jump into the TRILLION$!
A bankrupting, non-high-speed rail to nowhere, that no one needs, and no longer wants. Brilliant!
Thanks Jerry Brown for all you have done to us.
Article: Judge allows California high-speed rail funding to continue:
http://kfiam640.iheart.com/articles/local-news-465708/judge-allows-california-highspeed-rail-funding-15673275/
Honeybee, I don't recall calling ACA (The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) by the name you dislike. But if I did I apologize.
Frankly, I am concerned that it might go down in flames tomorrow. I hope I am wrong about that. But I am quite agitated - no, make that Mad as HELL - that what is currently being presented is sub-optimal at best. The Republicans certainly weren't pressed for time. They had 7 years to work on this!
Eight years ago I was very impressed with Paul Ryan. The best praise I can now summon up is that he is not as bad as Boehner was.
I think Obamacare became Trumpcare the day he pulled the already planned and budgeted federal promotional ads for new signups. That was a major change and determined the trajectory for additional coverage going forward. Some might call it sabotage. The state signups not dependent on those federal ads increased while the federal signups dependent on them declined. If President Trump is going to then claim declining signups for the federal program is proof that Obamacare is "imploding", then he needs to take credit for why that happened and proudly wear the badge of honor for that on his lapel.
TGIF
What a noisome market week.
I had another Zero-Sum day...gained exactly $1.00 at Fidelity and lost exactly $1.00 at Schwab.
Zero-Sum made me hungry. Think I will go out for dim sum.
Signing off now. Need to check the sofa cushions for loose change.
JC
8th day that the Dow finished lower! Well, the next stop is Tax Reform!
Gabe
Speaking of the former Speaker Of The House John Boehner, here's a great YouTube clip where he jokes about Rep. Anthony Weiner's name, during a commencement address no less.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jcrXnAdhpw (paste it into your browser address box)
Ah yes, the great chain-smoking lawyer from Ohio. Hey John, got a smoke?
Virginia Slim
Honeybee,
Have you ever watched Nancy Pelosi's stunt double?
(Not a great video production - You may need to crank the sound up a bit).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYVsN-2VCVg
Gabe what index do you follow? One post you're monitoring the market, then on a following post your monitoring the Dow. Or do you go back and forth?
Wine Guy: Yes, I do alternate among major indices!
Gabe
What will the market think Monday about obamacare continuing? My gut says "Buckle up next week"........
What will the market think Monday about obamacare continuing? My gut says "Buckle up next week"......
Back on Friday I think the market was still trading when the bill was pulled. Oddly the market rallied after the news. I suppose it could change Monday after the traders have the weekend to mull it over. I think the market is more interested in tax reform.
I think those who went to cash at the peak of Trump stock mania the day after his speech to Congress 3/1/17 will be proven right, but not until the market sniffs the probability that Trump's Tax reform and infrastructure spend may meet the same fate as repeal and replace. Market is now looking at tax reform which is why we did not crater and why the rally after the election.
The repeal and replace failure caused downside action earlier in the week 3/21/17 initially because it showed a chink in the deal making armor and they were counting on the savings from medicaid strip block grant and cap for tax reform.
Hard line Republicans (Freedom Caucus aka Tea Party legislators) are not going to vote for 1 trillion infrastructure spend, nor widening the deficit from tax reform dynamic scoring promises of 3.5 to 4% growth. However the deregulation push will be a positive and help mitigate vapor loss.
5-10% correction in the Dow and S&P if tax reform fails. Vapor coming out.
I'm still riding this market mule, but looking for profit taking opportunities.
As Bogle postulated in the long run the market moves higher, and I stipulate as long as growth is sustained no recession and business cycle boom clock is still intact no bear.
Just my take on this.
smile
My thought is that the Market is more concerned about politics than fundamentals. Therefore, attempting to trade or handicap on market internals that are known or anticipated is most difficult.
Gabe
Dearest Baconmeister: I'm thinking of selling all my gold over the weekend and buying pork bellies.
Smart move, regarding possible market gyrations?
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Smile....The Republicans can continue down the road of not supporting the man that put him in office with 306 electoral votes - some from states that always go Democrat- but they do it at their own peril.
They will not get any more opportunities. "We" gave them total power - House, Senate, Presidency. They better wise up and fast.
As part of any tax reform package, I would like to see that RMD's are treated as long term capital gains rather than ordinary income!
Gabe
gabe said...
As part of any tax reform package, I would like to see that RMD's are treated as long term capital gains rather than ordinary income!
I agree, some relief for rmds is needed and deserved. I spent my entire working life starting at age 15 in the 15% (or its equivalent at the time) bracket saving and trying to not have me or my family be a burden on others or the gov, now I will soon be forced into a higher tax bracket due to rmds. 70 years working and saving and now gov wants a huge bit of my savings. i don't like it.
Bluce said... I'm thinking of selling all my gold over the weekend and buying pork bellies.
Sources tell me that the next newsrag on April first will recommend Sears with ALL of your dry powder. BUY NOW...DO NOT HESITATE. WE ARE EXPECTING A COUNTER TREND RALLY that will triple your risk but is well worth it. Make sure to scan the recommendation with your decoder ring to get the hidden instructions so you can brag in 10 years how you followed only some of the worthless advice and reached that comfortable trillionaire status. This opportunity will not be repeated and it will disappear from all future issues and internet discussions, so be sure to ACT NOW.
Dearest Baconmeister: Sears? Sounds like a great idea! Maybe I will put half into that and half into Pennys.
Good ideer?
Gabe said:
As part of any tax reform package, I would like to see that RMD's are treated as long term capital gains rather than ordinary income!
OUCH!!!
I didn't realize that they are taxed as ordinary income. Another great reason to skip the regular IRA and go for the Roth IRA.
I made the switch quite a few years ago. I am a bit foggy on the details, but I believe at that time in addition to income averaging I paid the taxes due over a three (or maybe five year) period. Not only that, but a Roth is definitely less muss/less fuss (for individuals as well as their heirs).
JC
(Honeybee, this may be a duplicate - I tried earlier but the post seemed "jammed").
My two best memories of Sears are:
1. Craftsman Houses (sold via catalog between 1908 and 1942).
2. Craftsman tools (sold to Stanley Black & Decker earlier this year).
I have been in a (Sears owned) K-mart probably two or three times in my life. I used to go to Sears maybe 5 or 6 times a year. I have not been in a Sears store for several years.
And if anyone wonders if I was living during the time Sears sold houses the answer is no. :-)
JC
Jerrod: I remember when "Sears & Roebuck" sold Allstate motor scooters. I knew an older kid who had one, and I desperately wanted one but it never happened. Monkey Wards also had some type of motorbike. I used to look through all their catalogs at home as a boy.
One of them also sold ponies. I desperately wanted one of those too, but it also never happened. My parents knew better, lol.
Has Bob ever said how he is compensated for the show? Does he get a % of advertising or the national advertising or how does it work? Not likely it is free or just to shill for his newsletter.
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