STOCK MARKET.....Today, Brinker again recommended dollar-cost-averaging money into the market.
EXPECTING TAX CUTS HAS MADE THE STOCK MARKET STRONG....Brinker comments......The elimination of the "obamacare" 3.8% tax on higher earners is still there. However, looking ahead, the market has been strong because investors are expecting a corporate tax cut.
EVENTS IN GUBMINT AND UPCOMING POSSIBLE TAX CHANGES....Brinker discussed at length the House failure to repeal Obamacare last week. As he pointed out, no Democrats voted to repeal, and enough Republicans joined them, so that the major 3.8% tax remains in place. Through Obamacare, taxpayer's are still forced to pay for abortions, and costs for those forced to buy insurance will continue to skyrocket to subsidize those who pay nothing. Thanks to dRahme, a short clip from the opening monologue.
2016 NATIONAL DEFICIT AND NATIONAL DEBT HIGHEST EVER.....Brinker comments: The national debt represents the accumulation of all of the overspending over the history of the Republic. Last year, we had an enormous increase in the national deficit. It went up 35% to about $588 billion for the government fiscal year ending in September 30th of last year - and that is why the national debt is right now at $20 trillion. The annual deficit is added on every year.
DVY HIGH DIVIDEND ETF.... Brinker recommended DVY as a high-dividend-paying ETF - right now about 3%....He also commented that because of "the president's talk about lowering drug costs, there are some pharmaceuticals on sale right now.
Honey EC: Brinker has had DVY on his Marketimer list of "Individual Issues" for about 15 years now. It dived like Mark Spitz during the 2008 megabear.
QUALIFIED DIVIDENDS.....Brinker comments: For dividends to be accepted as "qualified," stocks need to be owned 61 days prior to ex-dividend date.
ECONOMIC....First quarter estimate for GDP is slow - possibly 1%, slower than 2016 - which was very slow.
WHAT GOES WHERE FOR BEST TAX RESULTS.....Brinker comments: In general, it's best to keep fixed income investments in tax-privileged accounts and stocks into personal accounts.
HEDGE FUND TURMOIL.....Brinker comments: Turmoil in the Hedge Fund industry is incredible. in 2016 there were 1057 closures. ....Another one shut down last week (Eton Park - Eric Mendage) - he had $2 billion under management. Thanks to dRahme, here are more of Brinker's comments about Hedge Fund closures (Forbes article Hedge Funds Dying at an Alarming Rate)
PREFERRED STOCKS....Brinker reminded a caller that preferred stock funds, like bond funds, are subject to interest rate risk and could decline if rates rise.
TAKING SOCIAL SECURITY EARLY....Brinker comments: If you delay taking Social Security to age 70, you will be 80 before you break even.
COMING NEXT WEEK.... Brinker comments; Busy week....tsunami of Fed-speak, Case-Schiller, GDP revision, jobless claims. Thanks to dRahme, a short clip with more details.
THE REDUNDANT BRINKER NEWSLETTER....Honey EC: Caller Tim in the first hour told Brinker that he subscribed to both his newsletters. Brinker did not tell Tim that the "Fixed Income Advisor" is not his newsletter, even though the information about the FOMC, money supply and portfolios are very similar. The "Advisor" is published and edited by his son with the same name - and his son's wife.
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY
Bob’s third hour guest on March 26th was Cal Newport, a college prof whose latest book is “Deep Work, Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World.” Prof. Newport wrote the book because of the need to focus intensely in today’s knowledge economy. Despite this, it is becoming harder to do so. Deep Work is the intense focus on one task.
The author believes that distractions are responsible for an actual impact on the overall economy. Silicon Valley companies pay big bucks for programmers then put them in open office environments where there are too many distractions. The author believes these tech companies will realize this if they haven’t already because it is a “dollars and cents” issue.
Most people don’t do “deep work,” although they might think they do. Four rules mentioned in the interview include:
1. Put aside specific time to work on something with no distractions.
2. Embrace boredom.
3. Quit social media. He mentioned he’s never used it.
4. Drain the shallows: much of what people do at work is viewed by them as vital, but it really is not. E-mails, meetings, phone calls etc. are “shallow work.” Recognize them as such – too many people don’t make the distinction between shallow and deep work.
Bob attempted to draw the guest into criticizing President Trump’s use of Twitter. He started by quoting the actor George Clooney about why he doesn’t use Twitter. Then he asked the guest for his reaction to famous people using Twitter. The guest didn’t bite.
Bob pointed out that he engages in Deep Work each month when he spends several days writing the newsletter. He said his focus is 100% on the newsletter as it has been for 32 years. Two other people capable of Deep Work are Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.
Bob mentioned the dangers posed by people driving while playing with their phones. The author agreed and said for some, the phone and the social media becomes a behavioral addiction. Facebook is an example of an addictive technology.
The author characterized the ability to do Deep Work as a Tier 1 skill. If you can tune out the distractions and do it, your career will advance.
A quick survey of other books by the author:
1. So Good They Can’t Ignore You, whose message was, “follow your passion” is actually bad advice. (But given at practically every graduation ceremony.”
2. How to be a High School Superstar. Advice for students.
3. How to Become a Straight A Student. Advice on this topic culled from interviews with 50 straight A students.
4. How to Win at College. Just what the title says, advice culled from interviews with recipients of prestigious scholarships.
This summary is not the result of Deep Work. I wrote it, as always, while listening to Hits of the 80’s with headphones on. Cheap ones.
Honey here: Thanks Frankj. I can't help but make a comment about Brinker using George Clooney as any kind of an authority on whether Tweeting is a good thing or not - or for anything else - pretty sorry choice, in my opinion.
And one more thing I'd like to say to anyone who is bothered by President Trump Tweeting - hey, just don't read them. Is someone taking over your computer, Mr. Brinker? Most all of President Trump's supporters like his Tweets because that's the only way to be certain we are getting the exact truth about what he says.
JEFFCHRISTIE HAS NOT RETURNED YET, BUT KEEP UP YOUR MONEYTALK STUDIES.
Brinker raved about the book "Black Edge" again. Here is the link to Frankj's summary from the author's appearance on Moneytalk about a month ago.
Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK KION 1460 Monterey
105 comments:
Did Jeff Christie go to the middle east and join the Jihad? I've been studying hard for the final exam, but without the weekly quizzes, I'm worried about failing.
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Pig....JeffChristie is on a super-secret, under-cover, super-sleuthing mission.
I could tell you what it is, but then he'd have to....well, you know. LOL!
Honey: Are you saying that we might see an increase in the "pork belly" supply?
Wow, this guy about the national debt -- what a waste. I want those ten minutes of my life back.
And, previously, Bob's typically left-wing misunderstanding of private property: If you, or one of those evil corporations, earns money in a legal way, IT IS NOT YOUR MONEY. If, by chance, the government "allows" you to keep some of it, then it is a direct "cost" to the government.
Hahahaha.
There is much in Tax Reform which is low hanging fruit IMO and I hope Trump attacks this issue with lessons learned from the repeal replace disaster.
1) flatter lower tax coupled with objective of both individual and corporate tax simplification offset by eliminating deductions to satisfy rev. neutral criteria.
by all means get rid of the mortgage interest and tax deduction - ok by me if that is what is needed so that tax preparation is a 5 minute or less chore compared to hours spent on this task if you are a DIY tax prep.
2) Border adjustment tax is a nonstarter - no way they are shifting this cost to US consumers
3) The treatment of Carried interest is part of that low hanging fruit and would be a helpful offset.
Trump has to get in there and make this his. He has enough business savvy to know where the problems are where the revenue is and where the unfairness is. He also knows that his voters will not go for tax cuts for the wealthy nor increasing the deficit.
Ya think healthcare was tough watch this sausage making deal.
Whatever Trump does I would say don't leave it to Ryan to design. That Healthcare deal was a colossal fail. I think Trump learned a lot from that.
smile
ps. the 1st caller on walking away from US debt, I had to shut off. nonstarter since someone owns the debt and has to be paid off. period end of story. There is no bookkeeping solution to debt owned by the public other than paying.
Thought he had no comment on Social Security as a bond allocation.
Why doesn't Bob ever say the president's name? Hey Bob how about Mr. President, Mr. Trump or God forbid, President Trump. I get a felling that Bob would have a cardiac event if he were to actually be respectful to our President. Is Bob some socialist or commie? The other thing about Bob is the quality of his guests. I can't count three guests in the past year worth listening to. Bob's show has gone to hell years ago. Joe in Truckee
Stuff I've read recently on SocSec is to view the income as an offset to living expenses. I probably won't cover everything, so take a look at what it does not cover and then adjust your asset allocation and withdrawals to take care of what Soc Sec does not offset.
I'd like my kids to here the seconf hour, re: Deep Work.
Anyone know of delayed broadcasts I could get on my internet radio?
Sorry correction, That was the third hour ZI want.
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Lamont...."Black Edge" author was on Moneytalk a month ago even though Brinker was raving about hedge funds today.
I posted a link in the front page Summary Template of FrankJ's summary. I suggest you read it and see if it will be helpful to you and your kids.
Also, I think there is a book review available on Amazon. Frankj sent me a link to it, but I have misplaced the link.
Lamont, the book was also reviewed in the Wall Street Journal.
Why can't we tax money going out of the country via Money Orders or wire transfers? I see at WalMart money transfers to Mexico. Can all the earning be taxed if it leaves the country? Keep it in US bank account and it will be taxed regular. Go to Swiss account you get taxed?
Bob's waiting for the long awaited gift horse buying opportunity call. Until then it's the same old song & dance.
Gridlock in Washington. That's usually good for the market.
THAT Bob has been on live TWO weeks in a row? That's some kind of recent record isn't it?
Maybe he got called into the corner office or something?
Futures down 136!
Gabe
LOL @ "Deep work." That's pretty dumb. In the real world there is working and not working. If you're texting or whatever when you're on someone else's time, then you are not working. We don't need new words or phrases to describe the difference.
"There is nothing new under the sun." -- King Solomon
Come on gift horse. Sell machines sell. I got cash to put into this nag.
Great summary of this week's interview. I would like to listen to this. Where can I download this episode?
Gundlach On Why Interest Rates Are Falling
March 24, 2017
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/gundlach-why-interest-rates-are-falling?nopaging=1
JC
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Stinky wrote this but sent it to the old March 12th thread:
BB is definitely slipping. During the last half of the second hour, caller Ron from Honolulu was talking about surrendering an annuity, and I think that he was questioning about whether he had a tax penalty since he's over 55 and was laid off from his job. Ron also said that he had a surrender charge on the annuity that wiped out the gain that he had.
Bob was totally confused, and he seemed to think that the tax penalty and the annuity surrender charge were the same thing. Bob even referred to what he called "surrender charge / penalty" twice during his response. Of course, Bob was wrong, wrong, wrong, because a tax penalty paid to the government and a surrender charge imposed by an insurance company are totally different.
I've listened to BB for many years, and much of his advice is pretty sound. But every piece of financial advice from anyone, including the esteemed BB, needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Sometimes the advice is misleading, and in this case BB was totally wrong.
Did anyone else notice BB's slip-up?
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Stinky....Yes, I did notice that Brinker told the caller that the tax penalty was the same as the surrender charge.
I thought that was wrong, but hoped that Brinker would correct himself later on - he didn't.
I did not have time to research it, and did not want to correct Brinker unless I was certain.
Thanks for clarifying.
I agree. Yes, when Bob heard Honolulu that seemed to take the focus off the issue that was the annuity surrender charge. He is more interested in discussing big waves!
Honeybee said:
"QUALIFIED DIVIDENDS.....Brinker comments: For dividends to be accepted as "qualified," stocks need to be owned 51 days prior to ex-dividend date."
Honeybee, (unless I misinterpret) THAT Bob is incorrect. In particular, where did he come up with "51 days"? Perhaps he meant 61 days? But even then, at best it seems to be an incomplete and/or inadequate comment.
Here is what The IRS says:
Qualified Dividends
Qualified dividends are the ordinary dividends subject to the same 0%, 15%, or 20% maximum tax rate that applies to net capital gain. They should be shown in box 1b of the Form 1099-DIV you receive.
The maximum rate of tax on qualified dividends is the following.
0% on any amount that otherwise would be taxed at a 10% or 15% rate.
15% on any amount that otherwise would be taxed at rates greater than 15% but less than 39.6%.
20% on any amount that otherwise would be taxed at a 39.6% rate.
To qualify for the maximum rate, all of the following requirements must be met.
The dividends must have been paid by a U.S. corporation or a qualified foreign corporation. (See Qualified foreign corporation , later.)
The dividends are not of the type listed later under Dividends that are not qualified dividends .
You meet the holding period (discussed next).
Holding period. You must have held the stock for more than 60 days during the 121-day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date. The ex-dividend date is the first date following the declaration of a dividend on which the buyer of a stock is not entitled to receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller will get the dividend.
When counting the number of days you held the stock, include the day you disposed of the stock, but not the day you acquired it. See the examples later.
Here is a link to Dividend IRS text:
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch08.html
Here is a link specific to the Qualified Dividend IRS text:
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch08.html#en_US_2016_publink1000171584
JC
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Jerrod....It wasn't THAT Bob who was incorrect this time. That was a typo this time. My secretary missed it.
Brinker said 61 days. I'll change it.
Bob is retired in place. He's getting there. I doubt he makes a bear call sell again. It's risky business. He knows that. The odds are against you. The 2000 bear call was not an outright sell so the reality is he's just a radio personality selling a rag. Didn't he make a bear call in the 1980s that went against him? Anything prior to the 1990s I'm not familiar with. I think I'm gonna use the vanguard advisors plan & leave it at that. Those bond funds Bob recommends have a pretty high expense ratio. I remember he used to advocate quality for the bond side of a portfolio. Times have changed on that advice. It was GNMA or total bond index pretty much. Does anyone know if Bob receives any kickback for recommending the managed funds? Would he have to disclose that in his publication?
Dow down 8 days straight...going for 9!
Gabe
Honeybee,
Oops!
Your Secretary stands corrected! (just kidding) ;-)
But, if I were THAT Bob and I ventured into tax territory comments on the show, I would ALWAYS tell the caller to review the situation with their tax preparer and/or C.P.A.
JC
Sounds strange but Bob has always been a father figure to me financially.
Because Bob announced ahead of time that his newsletter will be sent out in April, chances are that he will not be live next Sunday. So.....our "beloved leader" will take a week of "deserved vacation" from his listeners!
Gabe
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I noticed that Brinker did a lot of advertising for his son's "newsletter" on Sunday. Even spoke an ad.
At NO TIME during the whole show was it ever made clear to the audience that it is his son's and not his newsletter.
Does this mean anything? I don't know, but I am certain that the only reason he hangs on to the 3 programs he does per month is to sell his and his son's newsletter.
Of course, his unknown son couldn't sell snake oil if he didn't use his father's name on the internet and disguise who he is even in the newsletter.
Without the name made famous on Moneytalk, he would be just another baloney writer trying to sell what is available on the internet in the form of a worthless rag.
Boy, that was the most arduous 1st hour of Sunday's show that I've ever heard. Was listening while changing the oil in the commuter car, it made my task frustrating because the caller was like a brick, intellectually.
Eric from Redmond got BB started down the long road of educating us about the annual deficit and the national debt. Apparently, the caller has never balanced a checkbook. Bob musta been glancing at the clock and thinking, "This is an easy hour, only one long-winded caller, cha-ching." Near the end, Eric admitted, "I must be comparing apples to oranges."
No Bro, it was more like horseshoes to hand grenades. Jeez, call Bill Gates or check out a moldy book from the library. Or get a credit card and don't pay it back. Then you'll understand.
-LBJ
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Casey...in the past, there were times when Brinker had inside connections to mutual fund companies. He hoped to take over the management of one of them that he recommended. That didn't work out for him.
He also had a profitable insider connections to a stock he was touting on the internet under an anonymous handle - about 15 years ago - until he was outed on Nightly Business Report (for the connection).
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JC...I need a new secretary. :)
Honey wrote: He also had a profitable insider connections to a stock he was touting on the internet under an anonymous handle - about 15 years ago - until he was outed on Nightly Business Report (for the connection).
Haha! Really? That's one I haven't heard before. You certainly have got "all the goods" on him.
Can you share any more details?
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Bluce...Yes, I can. I have mentioned it off and on over the years, but I have never done a comprehensive article on the subject of Brinker and UTEK.
One of these days, I'll get inspired and put it all together. I have it all documented.
I used to actually call Bob papa...Yes papa.
Has Bob's aversion to interest rate risk by using managed bond funds that have higher expenses with lower durations paid off? If you compare them to the total bond index? I think the GNMA fund is a managed fund but it's expense ratio & credit quality is AAA vs the below investment grade bonds that are in the funds he recommends now. I know he was & is concerned about rates going higher & that was the rational to abandon the bond index & GNMA mantra. But has it paid off? Just wondering because the Vanguard advisor is not concerned about a big loss of principle in the bond funds. That's why I was wondering if their was money changing hands under the radar. I don't know anything about the law concerning disclosure. As you mentioned there's been relationships in the past so it's probably a buyer beware scenario when taking advise from a person you have no contract with. Do you know if there are fudiciary rules involved or does it fall into the dear Abby advise category? Anyone have any knowledge on this?
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Casey....To my knowledge, there are ZERO fiduciary rules (or laws) for radio talks show hosts or newsletter writers.
They can lie - overtly or by omission. They can cover up past blunders, and NEVER account for them in their published performance record.
And they never have to give recompense of any kind to those who PAID FOR their bad advice - not even an apology.
It is definitely "buyer beware."
Will the Dow end its streak!
Gabe
I suppose that's why Bob would never leave the show unless he wasn't invited back. That's kind of a dream part time job. I think it's called the graveytrain. I read Hulberts colum on marketwatch. I think he has a letter but I don't know if he gives any specific recommendations. It's more like he dispels every known strategy to beat Mr Market out of a buck. It's looking more & more like using my advisor at Vanguard who I will probably never meet & let him manage my money. It's funny how things end up. There's a ton of people out there that will manage your money & I'm sure they're well meaning nice people but it's a tall order to beat the market. I guess our nature is to believe things are harder than they are. We just can't believe simple is better. Why is that?
Honey: I Googled around and found your column from 2010 regarding Brinker and UTEK.
A lot of it is over my head, but interesting anyways!
stock market seems to be ignoring for now politics and looking toward fundamentals - earnings - hopefully they come thru +10% expected - let's light this candle!
smile
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I disagree, Smile.
The stock market reacted positively to President Trump taking much of the iron fist of government off our necks, by rescinding a lot of unnecessary rules and regs this morning.
Also, more jobs, and more optimism looking ahead.
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Bluce...consider yourself just getting a big kiss on the cheek. I had completely forgotten that I put a lot of that together.
That was written on the former blog that was actually owned and controlled by Kirk Lindstrom. I wanted to be independent, so established this one that belongs entirely to me.
To be safe, I am going to copy that here, so I can link to it here.
HB, how many points on the Dow do you attribute to the roll back of Obama's clean energy exec. orders by Trump today?
I'm thinking to myself is this really a problem - how many coal miners will this help, what happens to our air and water as a result.
We are in EOM window dressing leading into 1st Q earnings - expectations are high.
You may be right but maybe not who knows.
Actually I am quite surprised the market still thinks Tax Reform and Infrastructure will get thru both Houses of Congress. We shall see,
Heard 1 guy recently on a CNBC panel of sperts saying we are due for a rally when we get it he said lean into it. I agree.
smile
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Smile...If you sincerely are worried or have questions, please watch this video of what took place today. I think it will make you feel better.
So the stock market has tripled in 96 months without intrruption. PE of the market is 26. The fed is raising rates. We're do for a rally? Oh & consumer confidence is through the roof. Eight years ago we were on the brink of collapse. The Congress was balking at the bailout. Now it's back to the future of the late 1990s where even a caveman could make money buying stocks. Why does that bother me? Is it because I was brought up with the notion that only hard work got you money? Really seems too easy.
Honey wrote: Bluce...consider yourself just getting a big kiss on the cheek. I had completely forgotten that I put a lot of that together.
Thanks! I do remember that blog, although I don't remember ever reading that page.
Smile, regarding coal: I don't know how many miners it will help, but I heat with coal and I'd love for the price of it to go down, which I suspect it will now.
All that clean energy/global warming stuff is BS; it's just more reasons that leftists can use to control our lives, confiscate our money, and subsidize politically-correct "clean energy" companies in exchange for campaign donations.
You were right HB, I am much less concerned. I heard a review of Obama's Clean Energy Plan, opening up of leased Fed. lands for Coal oil gas production and some sort of reg. relief. Not sure that much was changed. Coal is dead except for exporting IMO. It would take a tech. advance to get coal clean without added cost.
Maybe this will free up the EPA to set a safe standard for Chromium 6 in our drinking water across the nation.
I never understood the XL Pipeline bringing all that dirty tar sand oil from Canada to be refined in Texas and Illinois. Temporary construction jobs and after that only a handful of jobs going forward. On top of that my understanding is we intend to export this refined tar sand oil. Makes no sense to me.
smile
The Dow gained back about half of its losses in the past 8 days or so!
Gabe
Bluce, thank you for the UTEK reference, I've been trying to remember all day. UTEK was BB recommendation that changed my opinion of him. Yes, I bought and yes I lost money. Fortunately, it also changed how I invested.
Casey: World history is full of bubbles. Check out the Tulip Mania several hundred years ago in Holland, I believe. Speculative bubbles are all just part of the human condition, or so it seems.
Easy money in stocks: If you can time the market and buy at the bottom, then sell at the top, wait for it to tank and buy at the bottom again and do this several times, yes, you will make tons of easy money.
Let us know how it works out and if it does, you will owe me lunch for the free advice I gave you.
FWIW: The "return on capital" (stocks and bonds) worldwide, going back to at least the Roman Empire has averaged around 4-6% annually, net of inflation. That should be the realistic benchmark, but I don't think most people use it.
But it's all a roll of the dice. Invest regularly with an AA you are comfortable with, diversify, understand your holdings, don't make sudden large moves, and pray a lot, lol.
Smile: All construction jobs are temporary when you consider a single project. There's a successful construction outfit in my town that does all kinds of projects from maintenance and capital projects at local manufacturers, to the building of large projects from the ground up. Yes each project is "temporary," but there are many people, union and management who have worked there steadily for years.
The meme that a construction job is temporary is trotted out when it seems when a project does not have the approval of certain groups. I've never heard the argument used when it comes to opposition to green projects like wind farms or solar farms.
The home building industry which is a bell weather of our domestic economy consists of almost nothing but temporary jobs.
Welcome to LA. Never a dull moment. I wonder if this woman took the term "in the catbird seat" literally?
Woman climbs crane in Downtown LA, locks herself in cab
http://www.foxla.com/news/local-news/244538033-story
Honeybee,
Nursery school has let out for the day. Please deposit this post in the "burn bag".
Thank you.
Anonymous Mad as HELL! said...
Casey how about daddio?
March 28, 2017 at 3:15 PM
Moe Howard said: Bluce, thank you for the UTEK reference, I've been trying to remember all day. UTEK was BB recommendation that changed my opinion of him. Yes, I bought and yes I lost money. Fortunately, it also changed how I invested.
Thanks Moe, but Honey gets all the credit. She has digitally preserved all of Bobby's dirty laundry. The Chinese Laun-lee (sic) couldn't handle it all and had to farm a lot of it out, haha.
I think our beloved Bacon Boy shares your frustration and anger with Shyster Bobby, only with a different stock.
Frankj, I appreciate what you said. My only view of this is how it impacts sustained growth in the economy. Growth is the engine for the stock market which is really my primary focus. I see a lot of tinkering around the edges with this administration for something that appears to be a big deal (campaign promise exciting the base) and imo it is not. Plus it is dirty tar sand oil refined for export. Still makes no sense to me.
Dakota pl is a different story, though I have a problem with the reroute from areas of influence to areas where population is not given a lot of preferential treatment, but that is another story.
It is what it is.
We only have one planet, if we keep on abusing her we may reach a point of no return.
smile
Bluce, you are the first person I've heard of that heats with coal, wow. (I did know a few people in the 60's that did)
I was using Replay A/V to tape Bob each week for years but it stopped working a few months ago. I think there was a change in the way radio stations are set up online now. Do any of you use a program on your computer to tape Bob? I work a lot of Sundays and I am not able to hear his show.
I used to us Replay A/V to tape Bob because I work most Sundays. Replay A/V doesn't work well for me now and I miss the show. Do any of you use a computer to tape Bob? What programs do you use?
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Hi Robert...I have used Replay Radio for years now, and recently, it simply does not work right when I try to do a playback.
I have not tried to investigate and see what is happening, but if it continues, I am going to stop using it.
Ah, Ultratech Stepper
I recall Mr B's cheerleading of the stock for some time with a rosy outlook for its future. When callers would question the stagnant or dropping price of the shares the answer was that a turnaround was ahead in the next quarter or two.
As Honey knows, I believe the Paul Kangas segment questioning our humble host about UTEK was his final appearance on Nightly Business Report.
I really miss Paul Kangas (R.I.P. February 28, 2017).
He delivered an authoritative, yet very congenial and knowledgeable broadcast. It is very difficult to find all of those qualities in the electronic media today. What a great sign-off: “Wishing all of you the best of good buys!”
In my opinion, Nightly Business Report lost its soul after Kangas left in 2009. Shortly thereafter PBS sold the show to CNBC.
JC
More on Paul Kangas...
Be sure to read the touching passage about the lady who called him each evening after the show!
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/obituaries/article135764688.html
JC
birdbrain wrote: Ah, Ultratech Stepper
I recall Mr B's cheerleading of the stock for some time with a rosy outlook for its future. When callers would question the stagnant or dropping price of the shares the answer was that a turnaround was ahead in the next quarter or two.
Haha, talk about timely. You should check this article on Morningstar today.
Dow going sideways for most of the session and finished lower toward the end. Well, we, again start with the Dow going lower.
Closed out my short several days ago and made a bit of profit.
I am extremely grateful to Bob Brinker for his recommending Microsoft in the single digits. Made a ton!
Too, I believe he had made some positive comment on the radio about Google and Apple. I also made a purchase. I am not certain but nevertheless I attribute it to him. Correct me if otherwise.
Thanks,
Gabe
Honeybee said ...it simply does not work right when I try to do a playback. I have not tried to investigate and see what is happening, but if it continues, I am going to stop using it.
Mmmm? Why would you just keep using it if it doesn't work right?
(sorry, I could not stop that person from typing that.......I tried....honest)
Bluce: John Rekenthaler's series on investing mistakes has been interesting reading.
Honeybee,
Just checking...I submitted two posts re: Paul Kangas. Did you receive them?
(I have no backups).
Thanks!
JC
Gabe if you were expecting a 5-7% pull back. Why would you sell only after a 2% pull back?
Honeybee,
Jerry the Jerk and his band of thugs are looking to jack up gas taxes and car registration fees again - BIG TIME! I understand that (now) they are even proposing additional fees for electric and hybrid vehicles. SHOCK of all SHOCKS!
Honestly, this would not be so horrible if they actually used the money for infrastructure repair for our third-world roads. But if history is any guide ALL of this money will be be allocated to feed the big pension pot and other schemes - none of it will go for road repairs.
frankj: Yes. His article last week (?) admitting that he had most of his portfolio in Mstar stock was, well, pretty shocking. I grew up around the Rochester NY area, home of Kodak.
Hundreds of smaller businesses and countless families in the area prospered from Kodak, and then to watch it all go up in smoke was pretty sobering. If it could happen to Kodak it can happen to any company.
MAD: It's hard to believe, but you just might have a worse gubner than the Cuomo Crime Family thugs we have here in NYS.
Casey: Precisely, 2.15%....Well, my "indicators" indicated otherwise! And so....I took the money and ran!
Thanks,
Gabe
rasputin here. Gabe why the 3 day late buy signal? I followed your signals implicitly.
The topic is Bezos.
Too bad his "achievements" have cast a pall over the entire brick and mortar retail landscape. I hope he enjoys his wealth as companies shut down and malls are re-purposed or demolished.
Related: I can't believe that "investors" are suddenly piling-in to buy SHLD and JCP. Huh? Have they lost their minds?
From Axios:
5. Stat du jour
Jeff Bezos Is now the world's second richest person, after Bill Gates, per Bloomberg's Robert Lafranco:
"Bezos has leapt past Amancio Ortega and Warren Buffett to become the world's second-richest person. ... Bezos has a net worth of $75.6 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, $700 million more than Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Buffett and $1.3 billion above Ortega, the founder of Inditex S.A. and Europe's richest person."
JC
gabe said...
Casey: Precisely, 2.15%....Well, my "indicators" indicated otherwise! And so....I took the money and ran!
Gabe, about those "indicators". Just curious...are you still utilizing the Starship's holodeck? Watch out for those tractor beams - they carry a lot of voltage! ;-)
JC
Beware of those selling Snake Oil:
Investment Products Are Not Always Investment Solutions
Posted March 29, 2017 by Ben Carlson
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/03/investment-products-are-not-always-investment-solutions/
JC
MAD
I Agree with your tax for infrastructure, if a tax only went for that and then stopped, I would be for it. Let's not forgot the CA lotto and education debacle.
Rasputin: Too many logs in the fire! Sorry!
Gabe
JC, regarding Bezos: Isn't this just free enterprise (and capitalism) at work?
All three (3) indices on the plus side!
Gabe
John:
To JC, regarding Bezos:
Should we have felt sorry for the buggy whip makers, farriers, carriage-makers, etc. when autos became cheap and popular?
Should we have felt sorry for all the men with picks and shovels who were forced out of a job when they invented bulldozers and backhoes?
Technology or new ideas and better ways of doing things improves a society's living standard. Sure, some jobs are displaced but overall it's a huge plus for society.
What I don't get is why this isn't self-evident to so many people. But then, the media spreads these ideas and they don't even understand it themselves. There is no critical thinking or even COMMON SENSE -- which is all it takes to understand this. And so it becomes conventional wisdom among the masses.
John and Bluce,
I am in total agreement with many of the points you both have made. That said, I am concerned about U.S. employment and population trends.
One "for instance" is to consider that most popular entry-level jobs have historically been at grocery stores, retail stores, and restaurants. My thoughts on these three:
Grocery Stores:
Continuously becoming more efficient (i.e. less labor intensive). Always in flux (buyouts, bankruptcies, etc.) Survival of the fittest. Possibly a candidate for eventual extinction via Amazon.
Retail Stores
Continuously becoming more efficient (i.e. less labor intensive). Always in flux (buyouts, bankruptcies, etc.) Survival of the fittest. DEFINITELY many, many candidates for extinction via Amazon within 5-10 years. (Costco and Walmart might survive but both will likely need to reduce (or eliminate) their physical footprint).
Restaurants
Continuously becoming more efficient (i.e. less labor intensive). Always in flux (buyouts, bankruptcies, etc.) Survival of the fittest. Probably NOT a candidate for extinction via Amazon. However, most jobs will be extinguished due to automation and the militant demands for higher wages. McDonald's hires over 1 million workers in the US every year. I estimate that the average McDonald's currently employs 50 or more people per location (P/T and F/T). Looking into the time machine (5-10 years out), there will likely be 4-6 (F/T) employees per store.
And please keep in mind that the above is a look at only three out of many sectors, industries and sub-industries.
While I am not a "futurist", assuming current birth and death rates persist in the coming decades, we will incur HUGE problems. According to the Census Bureau's decennial census, U.S. population (births minus deaths) is growing by approximately 3.3 million per year, or 33 million people per decade.
In my opinion (given population and unemployment trends, combined with medical, technological and other developments) the U.S. will be forced to adopt a Socialist model (think Greece) within the next three decades. Many may like being "retired" for their entire life, but others may not.
JC
JC:
Of course, the main reason menial jobs are taken over by robots is because of minimum wages imposed by GOVERNMENT. But that will not go away anytime soon because the public does not understand that labor is a commodity and has a specific value -- best set by market forces and not by faceless, clueless bureaucrats in faraway government buildings, pricing jobs higher than their true value -- in effect eliminating them. Central planning (the political allocation of resources) is a proven failure.
Another myth: Population increases will raise unemployment. If you just do it as a math exercise, I suppose so. But in the real world, more people need more food, more clothes, more cars, etc., proportionately increasing demand for those things -- so it is a wash.
But nobody believes in freedom anymore, so we are stuck with the ever-increasing force of government on our necks.
Inflation is on the rise!
Gabe
Bluce said:
Another myth: Population increases will raise unemployment. If you just do it as a math exercise, I suppose so. But in the real world, more people need more food, more clothes, more cars, etc., proportionately increasing demand for those things -- so it is a wash.
Bluce,
I mostly agree with the first paragraph in your post. However, I disagree with your second paragraph (bolded above). Here is why:
1. The exploding population growth (+3.3 million net per year).
2. The decline in employment opportunities due to lack of education, non-citizenship, advances in technology etc. In addition the employment "age band" is continuously shrinking at the lower and higher ends of the band. Youths are having a tougher time finding and keeping jobs. "Old folks" (40+) are having a tougher time keeping and finding new jobs if they are terminated. The sweet spot is reserved for those in the middle band (20-39). In many/most cases others need not apply.
I know this from economic developments as well as personal experience. In a few words the following was both my best (and worst) job. After more than a few years in "lackey jobs" I landed a position as Sales Administrator at a manufacturing company. This was my first non-lackey job! Not great paying initially, but certainly much better than any of the prior lackey jobs. I was determined to learn everything possible about the company and progress through the ranks.
The company treated me well, fellow employees were (for the most part) fantastic to work with. I was promoted multiple times (ultimately to Director of Marketing Services) and received commensurate increase in salary (and bennies). I worked my arse off there for nearly 13 years and suddenly one evening my boss came into my office, closed the door and said "We need to talk". Through the years I had a great relationship with my boss and I could read from his face that this wasn't going to be a great discussion. So, long story short, I was "out at 40" based on age and salary. Many others were terminated concurrently and nearly all fit the same profile.
After hundreds (perhaps thousands) of resumes and resulting interviews I came to the conclusion that it was going to be nearly impossible to find comparable employment at comparable compensation. I did (reluctantly) take some sub-par jobs while continuing the job hunt. The only meaningful position I landed was a VP of Operations. I had to move several thousand miles for that one. I hated the city and hated the weather, but as a offset I was making great bucks, had a nice company car and wonderful bennies. I liked my boss but soon grew to dislike many of the employees (including those who I supervised). So, I resigned after 7 months an moved back to my original city and home. That was my last "real" job and I consulted from then until "retiring" at 60 and pursuing a "hobby" in investing.
I don't feel sorry for myself - never have. However, I do empathize with the millions of people who have (or will) experience similar "ageism" and/or "payism". The situation is very, very bad and (given current demographics, technology etc.) is destined to become much, much worse as time goes on.
JC
Are you anticipating another mini correction Gabe?
Casey: I believe this meets The Fed's target and as long as it stays "reasonably" around this number, I do not believe the Market will correct albeit a very minor pause. Mostly, I believe the Market will hunker around its close today vacillating between narrow margins.
Just my take....understanding I am no where an "expert"!
Thanks,
Gabe
Another 5% rise or more for the S&P 500 in the next quarter? Family member received a $1900 property tax cut due to the state having a $1.6 billion surplus. The state I'm in has no such surplus. Times are good.
Androgynous NOT "Mad as HELL!" said...
You're considered close to an expert here Gabe!
April 1, 2017 at 6:42 AM
I agree with the comment about Gabe. But I don't agree to the moronic goings-on with this little imposter who pretends to be me and other folks here.
Get a clue little boy with little going for him. Sleazeball, degenerate WIMPosters are NOT welcome here!
.
MadasHELL,
I dowbt that he is welcome anywhere he shows his face.
That is why he spends his time pretending to be others of good reputation.
I think someone's impersonating me too. Will the real Casey please stand up.
.
The only way I can guarantee that you cannot be impersonated is if you will set up a Google account/profile and use it to post with.
I'm sorry this is happening. What this person wants is for me to shut down all comments. That is my only other choice...
So unless you all want no comments privileges at all, please set up a profile - or we are going to have to wait until this person drowns in his own bile.
Anonymous Pig says "Is it me or is it Memorex-impy"
Most people would ask "who cares?"
I think someone's impersonating me too. Will the real Casey please stand up.
The only "Deep Work" Bob does is not editing his newsletter but editing past programs for "cut and paste" so he can stay home on Sunday.
Hey Anonymous:
Anonymous said...
Why doesn't Bob ever say the president's name
Hey anonymous, why don't you give your name?
Regarding Honey's comment above about Google accounts:
Nobody hates Google and their tentacles more than I do, but what is the huge downside that discourages anyone from having an account?
Color me confused.
Who's anonymous?
My dad had a Nonymous but he traded it in for a Ford.
Honeybee:
Wimp Alert, pls. delete:
Anonymous Mad as HELL! said...
Next time you see my handle it will be in blue letters. I'm signing up for Google as we speak!
April 2, 2017 at 7:21 AM
Anyone else notice that "Eric in Redmond" sounds an awful lot like Eric Wattenburg?
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