STOCK MARKET....Brinker said this: "We've had a favorable view of the market going all the way back to March 2003 when the S&P was at 800. It's up more than 2 1/2 times since that time, so it's had a tremendous run. It's also had a huge run in the last year. It's up about 24% since last February. So if you are going to be establishing an equity ratio, I'd be taking a dollar-cost-average approach - especially on market weakness....I don't like to chase markets at all-time-highs after they've been running to the moon....."
WHICH INDICATORS INDICATE STOCK MARKET SLOWDOWNS... Caller Sharon asked Brinker about this. BB replied: There are many indicators and it would be impossible to cover them on the radio. We cover this is the investment letter.....One of the many things you can look at is the Leading Economic Indicators. The Conference Board publishes monthly the Leading Indicator Index - gives some indication of the economy going forward over a period of 3 to 6 months.....But there is a long list of information that I go through in trying to determine what's going to happen to the economy going forward......
TECHNICALS PREFERRED OVER FUNDAMENTALS..... BB continued: "From my point of view, the key input in trying to make a forecast on the stock market has to come from the technical side. Certainly you have to follow what's going on in the fundamental side. You want to have your best judgment on what is happening with the economy, but when it comes the internal market technicals, that is the best place to provide input on what is going to happen in the market.
MARKETIMER BASED ON TECHNICALS....BB contined: " When we issued our sell signal in January 2000, to take most of the money out of the market (Honey EC: it was 60%), it was based on our technical indicators.....When we issued our buy signal in September 2011, when the S&P was low 1100s....That was again driven by technical indicators......When we issued our buy signal a year ago in February....once again driven technical indicators....They are not perfect, but they can be extremely valuable.....they predicted the bear market that started in year 2000. They predicted the bottom last February. They predicted the bottom in September 2011.....Some people if it's not perfection then so what. I say when you are making those kinds of decisions, you don't have to make 100% on the decisions. For example, if you took most of your money out of the market in January 2000 and then put it back in in March 2003, when the S&P was at 800, then that is a major factor in terms of what's happened to your portfolio....."
Honey EC: The S&P was at 800 in 2003 and rose steadily until 2008, when it dropped to 677. Brinker just skips right past the 2008-09 megabear because his "timing model" missed it entirely. As for his buy-signals that come with no prior sell signals, there have been a lot of them where the market has continued to drop afterwards. He only mentions the ones (about 50%) that he gets right.
Honey EC2: I'm not sure that I understand the real difference between "fundamentals" and "technicals." If some of the BRT (Blog Research Team - anyone can become one) would like to help me understand, I'd certainly appreciate it.
FED SEZ INTEREST RATES GOING UP.....BB comments....The Fed has said that they expect to raise rates several time for the next few years....This year a broad band of possible rate hikes would be 2 to 4.....My personal view is 2 to 3. The only way I could see four would be if we saw an acceleration in the economy. Did not see it in the fourth quarter at 1.9% preliminary.....This is data dependent....not set in stone.....They are trying to get the Federal Funds overnight lending rate to 3% as the long-term target....There is a long ways to go because Federal Funds right now are 1/2 of % to 3/4%.....
FOMC ECONOMIC ANALYSIS.... BB comments....First meeting this past week...there was no change in rates.... In their statements the Fed said that the labor market continues to strengthen; economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace; household spending continues to rise moderately; business fixed investment remains soft; measures of consumer and business sentiment are improving; inflation increased in recent quarters, but is below the 2% long term objective.
JOBS GROWTH NUMBERS....BB comments: Very good numbers reported Friday for January.......227,000 new jobs......unemployment rate of 4.8%......an increase in participation rate......wage growth for the month 0.1%, which means an annual rate of 1.2%. This is important because wage growth is a major component of inflation - watched closely by Fed.
FACTS ON THE FIDUCIARY RULE....Brinker talked about Dodd-Frank and the so-called Fiduciary Rule that was supposed to start in April being done away with. He was all atwitter. But I say Caveat Emptor. No investment advisor - not even America's Most Trusted one - can be trusted to put clients ahead of themselves. I could cite enough examples to fill a good sized book. Check it out for yourself - there's good reason to do away with it.
PRECURSOR TO MONEYTALK.....BB continued: "This program had a precursor prior to debuting on the national broadcast hookup, I had hosted a similar program. Literally a precursor to Moneytalk on a major talk radio station in New York City at the time. We were on one station in the mornings, and then later it was on Saturday mid-days until I left to take this broadcast....We started that in October 1981 and continued until the week before Super Bowl Sunday 1986, at which time, I accepted the offer that was made to host this program......
BOB BRINKER LIFETIME BROADCAST HISTORY....BB continued: "In terms of doing radio broadcasting. It kind of got in my blood when I was a teenager. I literally started help pay my way through college when I was 18 years of age. I started in what was then a small town, Sante Fe, New Mexico - that was the first time I took a radio broadcast job and tried to learn the ropes over the years. Kept my hands on it as an avocation and I'm glad I did because the opportunity down the road came along after I'd gone off in several different directions, including NCAA college basketball and football play-by-play, which I enjoyed immensely. But I always returned to my roots in investments. It worked out well, working in investments and at the same time, having a hand in the broadcasting business. And we were able to put the two together for this program."
Honey here: I have been one of those who has listened to Moneytalk almost from the beginning when KGO started carrying the program. I became not only a fan, but a critic about 15 years ago when my eyes were opened on the Brinker message boards that the Jr webmastered.
Did Brinker just say good-bye to Moneytalk? I doubt it, but if he ever does, he will not tell us - that would show real respect for his audience to actually say good-bye, which I know he does not feel.
Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK KION 1460 Monterey
91 comments:
BS Ken, BS
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MikeE...LOL! I agree. Ken was either an arranged caller or the joke for the day.
Most of us will follow Bob's cue and step-out to watch the start of the game.
Bob keeps talking about short duration. I don't think he is correct by pushing short duration bonds as I think rates will go lower. I may be a lone voice in the wilderness but when everyone thinks rates will go higher, they are usually wrong. Look for lower rates, IMHO. I love his OSTIX recommendation though as it is yielding over 5% and will probably continue doing that even if rates go up.
I thought the President wanted to keep the "fiduciary rule" in the Dodds/Frank bill, Bob is giving him hell about it.
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Bob Brinker made a big deal out of the so-called Fiduciary Rule that was supposed to begin in April that President Trump has put on hold.
Look up hypocrisy in dictionary and see what you find.
The live content of today's program will be of short duration
MikeE: Bob's been wrong about interest rates for going on four years now, if memory serves.
My bond holdings, which are half of my portfolio and are well-diversified (I think), have an average duration of 4.4 years. I see no reason to change it.
I thought the President wanted to keep the "fiduciary rule" in the Dodds/Frank bill, Bob is giving him hell about it.
Good one, HB!
I wouldn't be surprised if Bob sticks around for the 3rd hour -- I think the Superbowl is going to be boring this year, with the Pats kicking Atlanta's butt!
How can ostix have such a high yield at 5℅ with a low duration of 1.52? It's rated B quality. B is junk grade?
Phil: OSTIX is considered a junk bond fund. Any bond below BBB is junk.
Trump Wants to Kill the Fiduciary Rule. Here's Why That's a Big Deal for Retirement Savers
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/02/03/trump-the-fiduciary-rule-and-your-ira/#765d2305aa5c
Do I sense a little Brinker nostalgia with his 'thanks' to his listeners. Is this a "so long" edition?
Brinker turned 75 on 10-01-2016 .... Sayonara or some announcement coming up on "Super Bowl Sunday"?
Haha, what a liar. End of second hour, he does his regular "And many thanks to Ravi (Shankar) -- just kidding, I think he actually played with the Beatles) as he always does at the END of the show, the third hour.
Then he immediately caught himself and says something about "Moneytalk continues . . . " He has this huge problem with lying about checking out for the third hour and putting an old tape on. He's so predictable.
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Yes, I remember listening to Bob in NYC on radio station WMCA.
Gabe
Audio sounds different to me. Reruns?
Sure don't think last hour was live as he never said anything about the Super Bowl and also there was no guest for the last hour.
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MikeE...I like to think that when I type stuff on the front page that it is actually read. :)
Honeybee, great site and I defiantly rad what you write! Lol some people are just oblivious. So does anyone subscribe to his newsletter? Anyone like any of the new fidelity etfs such as FDRR
Brinker obviously signed off for the day at the end of hour two. How could anyone paying attention not hear that ?
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NBG....Actually, no he didn't sign off. He started to and someone caught him in midstream and cut his water off.
He then mumbled that Moneytalk would continue in the next hour.
Somebody once said: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive."
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someOne... :)
Why would anyone continue listening after he gave the sign off intro ? Saying it would continue in the next hour in no way says he would be there to do the next hour live. Guess some people just can't quit him. Perhaps they love to hate him..
I Don't think the last hour was live... He said his usual sign off at the end of the 2nd hour... "before they beam me out of here"... then he said Moneytalk will continue. The third hour started with standard intro with no phone number, no guest. my guess re-runs...
Lady Ga Ga killed at the half time show....Don't know how anyone could top that show.
More kicking of the Patriots' butts will only make it sweeter.......LADY GA (Atlanta) GA. !!
MikeE - I actually like a mix of short term bonds right now. Given my age, about 20 years to retirement, I constructed a bond ladder with a combination of short term (1 to 5 year) and longer term (15-30) General Obligation bonds in CA. My strategy with having the shorter term bonds is to be able to get my cash back in case interest rates go up....
Not saying I agree with BoB - as he is negative on long term durations, just using part of his message to diversify my bond portfolio.
John from SF said:
Hey everybody, we must never forget:
Sunday is never done until we've heard from our Honey(bun)!
Fanny Farmer in Fresno says--
MikeE makes some good points. With interest rates rising so slowly, why not have some mid or long term bonds, and enjoy the income. If Trump starts trade wars, we might see some economic slowdown and all the big money will rush into Treasuries, pushing their market rates down and pushing up the NAV of our current holdings. Saw a great interest rate charting on SeekingAlpha.com that displayed the grim reality that interest rates have gone lower every time we thought they couldn't go lower. But that was before "Chair Janet" made a move in December, so adjust your thinking by .25%
Listen to the last five podcasts of Moneytalk by phone, use your nationwide free minutes Podcast by Phone: 701-719-0848
Honey EC2: I'm not sure that I understand the real difference between "fundamentals" and "technicals." If some of the BRT (Blog Research Team - anyone can become one) would like to help me understand, I'd certainly appreciate it.
Most stock analysis is done by one of two disciplines: Fundamental or Technical. Most people prefer one over the other.
Fundamental analysis is again divided between Quantitative (earnings, dividends, debt, etc.) and Qualitative (intangibles like brand recognition, industry cycles, research quality, etc.).
Technical analysis involves analyzing the economic characteristics of a company due to supply and demand of the stock, or the "trend". Most technical guys believe that all the fundamentals are "factored in" to the price already (efficient market theory and all that) so that's a waste of time. Basically, guys like Graham, Dow, and Buffet have proven this wrong (unless you believe it's all just luck).
Basically, Fundamental analysis is traditional logical security analysis. Technical analysis is usually a lot of hand-waving BS. So it doesn't surprise me that BB says the key input in trying to make a forecast on the stock market has to come from the technical side. Bob's career has simply aligned with bull markets, and Bob likes to be in the market (he gets that part right at least). So he has done well. QED. But as you point out, he's wrong as much as right about the timing. And yet a bull market covers all sorts of sins. Even ones as large as BB's.
The very best way to pick buy and sell points is use these methods together. That is, to take a fundamental approach to technical analysis. Or said another way, to use fundamental trends to identify technical turning points. For example, I watch the dividend yield on the Dow to spot the turning point down (2.2% is a good recent pick, it's at 2.4% now) if the ratio of undervalued/overvalued select blue chip stocks reaches 1/2 at the same time (it's 1/3 now). Listening to BB, I think he truly guesses with darts. But he's so non-transparent, who knows? He's more an entertainer methinks.
Technical analysis: DanG who hasn't been here in a long while said he used the MACD indicator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence. It is one of many, many technical models that have been developed. There's a book called "Technical Analysis from A to Z" if anyone is interested in a survey of these models.
BB said recently that he uses technical analysis to discern when a market downturn might occur. I think one of the things he must look at closely is the price movement of something like SPY in relation to daily volume. When the price of a security has been on an uptrend, but then makes an incrementally small increase on weak volume that's thought to be an indication that there aren't enough buyers left out there to meet the seller's asking price and a weakness follows.
I thought Brinker decided to sell in Jan. 2000 based upon his 5 root causes of a bear market. Those 5 are:
1. Tight Money
2. Rising rates
3. High Inflation
4. Rapid Growth
5. Valuation
Those indicators sound more fundamental than technical.
Brinker's Feb.10 2016 buying opportunity was based upon a retest of lows along with extreme bearish sentiment. That sounds technical to me.
Jim, Those indicators sound more fundamental than technical.
Nearly all technical guys like BB use fundamentals to "justify" their hand-waving (after the fact, of course). It's like explaining why a woman does something...the smart guy always wait until after she does it to explain it. When one tries to actually predict it with data, he just looks foolish.
Note that BB's 5 "causes of a bear market" are all non-precise. What is "high" inflation? What is "tight" money? "Rapid" growth? "Value"?
Without fundamental, quantitative, predictions, it's all just snake oil. Perfect for the "wily" BB!
Jim: BB likes to us on our toes. The 5 items you cited are fundamental.
During an NPR interview, Barney Frank said the Dodd Frank rule prohibits banks from granting mortgages to people who can't make payments as required (sub prime)---has nothing to do with the fiduciary rule.
Tito
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Bob Brinker not only "reviews" the Five-Root Causes of a bear market, he has his own so-called "timing model" that contains various "indicators."
In the most recent issue of Marketimer, he seems to try to make the "timing model" into more specificity. This time he calls it "pre-recession indicators." but it looks like the same-old,
same-old to me.
1. Accelerating Inflation
2. Payroll Growth
3. Rising Unemployment Claims
4. Inverted Yield Curve
5. Leading Economic Indicators
Note that yesterday on Moneytalk, he covered most of those items, and came up with the same conclusion he wrote in Marketimer. In my own words: No recession or bear market on the horizon - but time to be "vigilant" again, so dollar-cost-average.
Honeybee,
Interesting article. Have you been?
Santa Cruz Surfing Museum
Housed in a memorial lighthouse, this museum relays the history of surfing, beginning with the antics of royal Hawaiian teenagers.
https://goo.gl/bP4YRc
JC
Honeybee said (from Summary):
"Did Brinker just say good-bye to Moneytalk?"
Wow Honeybee, that thought certainly crossed my mind as I was reading your recap!
Do you recall if he said anything similar on the 30th anniversary show? If it wasn't a "good-bye" at the 31st year mark, it seems to me that it would have been be more appropriately expressed at the 30th year milestone.
Could you check your recorded audio again and see if you hear:
1) The sound of shoes being hung on the wall, and/or
2) The sound of a mic drop
JC
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Jerrod...Yes, I have been there countless times - but actually visited inside the museum only a couple of times. It is very small.
It is a short distance from the Santa Cruz Wharf and Boardwalk. There is a walking/biking trail that runs past it along the ocean beside West Cliff Drive to Natural Bridges, a Santa Cruz landmark. The sunsets from there are spectacular!
It's absolutely lovely, but one needs to know the best times to enjoy it. We have to share with all those "city folks" who come over the hill on weekends to enjoy our perfect weather and clean air. Heehee....
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Bonds did very well today! AAPL hit $130!
Patriots won and covered!
Equities came back at the close!
Six (6) horses going on thursday. Whew!
Gabe
BB continued: "From my point of view, the key input in trying to make a forecast on the stock market has to come from the technical side.
Anyone else remember BB being less than charitable on chart watchers?
I think i remember BB, in the not so recent past, would mock technical analysis calling them chartist. Maybe drawing forecast opinions from charts and "technical analysis" are not related.
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sn...Yes I do remember that. The blog searcher who seems to be able to find anything is not available right now to try to find any place where I have documented that fact.
I always underestimate Bob Brinker's willingness to flip-flop - so may not have written about it when he slammed charting.
DanG seems to be missing in action, but I'm sure he remembers it, since was a devout technical analyst.
John from SF said:
Those comments from Brinker about 31 years of the program made me think that maybe he's planning to give it up as well. However, if he does that he'll do it in the same way he does everything else hoping no one will notice. I wouldn't put it past him to have Bob Jr slide into his chair and take over as if nothing had happened. It would be sort of a radio version of the "Picture of Dorian Gray" with a family dynasty twist.
Honeybee,
I rarely listen to BB these days, relying on your excellent summaries, the BRT and this discussion board to keep me informed. I do remember that particular topic of discussion occurring here regarding BB's views on T/A.
That said, it appears that BB has flip-flopped or perhaps flop-flipped given his comments that you outlined from his show on 2/5/17.
However, just to season and stir the pot a little more...on his website he doesn't seem particularly fond of "theories and complex calculations" regarding precise market timing.
Here is a link from his web site:
https://goo.gl/g6MX7n
Please note that the above page shows "Copyright ©1999-2017." So it leaves us in suspense (or perhaps suspension of disbelief) as to whether it reflects his thoughts in 1999, 2017, or perhaps somewhere in between that span of 18 years.
Confusing? Yes indeed!
JC
I listen to a couple of financial radio programs so I could be confused but I thought it was Brinker who sarcastically said a few times years ago that "charts are 100% correct at showing you what happened in the past". His comment suggested that charts are worthless at predicting the future. Anyone else remember a comment similar to that from him?
...on his website he doesn't seem particularly fond of "theories and complex calculations" regarding precise market timing.
I love this. No theory (check). No complex calcs (check). He flat-out acknowledges he makes it all up after glancing at the primary econ indicators. Incredible work, if you can get it. No wonder he doesn't retire. But hey, I appreciate the guy anyway; he got me started thinking about stocks when I was in my twenties.
Jim,
I too remember Bob saying just what you said. This was a few years back.
I too check Honey's page every Monday. I'm in Seattle and BB is virtually off the air. The few times I listen to him I have to do an internet search to see which station he is still on. But weekend radio in Seattle has really fallen off and turned more into sales shows for vitamins and such.
Is BB still fully invested?
Mark from Seattle
I also remember this.
The failures of long-term, consistent stock/bond market timing are monumental and well-documented.
Honeybee,
OT, but I think you will find this as humorous as it is ridiculous. And the very last frame on the video...that can't be Obama can it? Sure looks like a girl to me. Hope and CHANGE???
C'est la difference?
https://goo.gl/tA9SED
JC
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I thought the same thing about it looking like a girl. Smooth arms and all.
I don't understand what the video means, but I think I probably don't want to. :)
In any case, the two CNN Bimbos are truly in love with Obama - no matter what he is.
Brinker ain't quitting a broadcasting money machine...hours too good and he made a fortune on the radio...Brinker is essentially a shaman but people want shamans. Read Bernstein or Bogle and implement a plan. If you need guidance, go with a cheap DFA advisor.
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AAPL $131.53 wow!
AMZN also higher nicely.
Good country, America!
Gabe
I see Lizzie Warren (AKA Poco Haunt Us) has been silenced, if ever so briefly.
What a miserable, horrible, antagonistic, certifiable nutcase. As bad as (if not worse than) HRC, and that is saying a lot. I suspect both of them voraciously consume five or six full bowls of rusty nails for breakfast each morning, then randomly spit them out at their targets during the day.
Why can't she do some good with her "talents"? Maybe call in to THAT Bob (if she can find a live show) and give him a piece of her mind?
Mad: I agree about the Injun Senator-ess. What kind of people vote for someone like her?
"Mad: I agree about the Injun Senator-ess. What kind of people vote for someone like her?"
Bluce, frankly I'm at a loss. The pre-election and particularly post-election period has confused me, distressed me and frankly made me Mad as HELL! So many antagonists, so much hatred, all the divisiveness, protests, riots...and on and on.
Sometimes I have trouble sleeping, and when that happens I listen to the radio. One of my favorites is George Noory (Coast to Coast AM). Until recently I tried to compartmentalize the show into two parts:
1. Interesting and educational.
2. Interesting, outrageous and hilarious.
I am in the process of (possibly) re-categorizing topics in the second category. For instance the topic of "chem-trails", i.e. jets purposefully (but secretly) releasing chemical compositions from their aircraft to alter climate, etc. I used to think this was a hoot when "experts" came on the show to discuss it and then callers chimed in.
There can of course be multiple causes for people "going nuts" in the six months preceding an election and the several months following. But I think you will agree that we have never before witnessed the intensity, duration and magnitude (millions of people) of this current insurrection.
So are chem-trails responsible? Difficult to say at this point, but I am certain that in time we will find the name George Soros (and others) associated with the root cause of the ongoing and worsening insurrection.
Mad: ...call into THAT Bob (if she can find a live show)
My first real laugh of the day. It's not every day Warren & Brinker get nailed in the same line! Economy of words.
Honeybee,
URGENT!
Looks like BB Jr. needs a bit of help with his homework. Are you and/or any members of your BRT available for tutoring? I am certain that BB Jr. would be most appreciative!
From: Twitter:
Bob Brinker @BobBrinker 2h (2 hours ago)
anyone know of a *richer* api for google spreadsheets than the GOOGLEFINANCE() api ? looking for one with duration & sec_yield for MFs
MK,
Thanks for your nice comment. Glad you enjoyed!
President Trump just generated 3,000 new jobs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZzFUmROFLY&sns=em
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Dow holding on to 20K!
Gabe
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Kilgore. That Intel factory was announced a year ago. Trump had nothing to do with it.
Larry Lindsey
Larry. Why would President Trump take credit if the Intel factory was planned long ago?
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Larry Lindsey...Please provide a link to prove what you said.
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Hi Kilgore,
I voted for Trump but this dog and pony show today with Intel has really disappointed me.
Taking credit for things he didn't do and blaming others for his screw ups seems to be his MO.
I'm from Phoenix and know this facility. It's actually an existing plant, built several years ago, around 2012 but hadn't ever opened. About a year ago they said it was finally going to be outfitted for their new chip.
Over to you...
Larry Lindsey
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Honey,
In 2011, Intel announced that it would be building "a new $5 billion-plus factory in Arizona."
The plant was built ,but not outfitted as desktop and notebook sales fell dramatically by 2014 because of the smartphone and tablet market.
The self driving car market is driving the demand them to finally open the facility.
Warm Regards,
Larry Lindsey
Larry and Kilgore, you're both right. From this morning's Wall Street Breakfast on the Seeking Alpha website.
"Whether it's Trump's American manufacturing drive or the company was going to do it any way, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) CEO Brian Krzanich has promised $7B to resume construction of a chip factory near Phoenix that could one day employ 3,000 people. The announcement was made in the Oval Office. Some chips that will be made there will be used in emerging technologies that Intel is seeking to grow, like 5G networks and drones."
Anyone remember when Mr B would playfully claim that the NFL gradually pushed back the start of the Super Bowl to not interfere with Moneytalk? Have not heard that the last few years as the host has bailed during the final hour to subject his audience with repeat programming.
The Chandler, AZ facility build-out is certainly a win-win event.
I congratulate Arizona, Nevada, Texas and other states for their business-friendly stance, (quite the opposite of California who discourages new business and "excels" in paving the way for the departure of existing businesses). If California succeeds in its idiotic succession movement - that's it - shut the doors! The state will be bankrupt within 30 days. Who will bail them out? There will be mass chaos, mass riots and mass out-migration.
Anyway, getting back to Chandler, AZ, there are links below to a news story and video - a study in contrasts. The TV piece was interesting until Jason Barry, the on-air reporter waved the Intel press release in our faces and said there was nothing in the release to indicate President Trump had anything to do in influencing this business decision.
Switching to the written piece, via WASHINGTON (3TV/CBS 5/AP), they clearly and correctly note "Krzanich (Intel CEO) says the announcement comes partly in response in part to Trump's tax and regulatory policies". The grammar is a bit contorted but you get the idea.
Lesson learned: One must be very discriminating these days when they partake of news stories.
http://www.azfamily.com/story/34457327/intel-to-invest-7-billion-in-chandler-az-factory-3000-people-to-be-employed
~ or ~
https://goo.gl/y7u9N2
JC
Bird: Yes, I remember him saying that more than once.
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Record high indices!
Don’t spend your money all in one place!
Gabe
Jerrod Clarkson said,
"Switching to the written piece, via WASHINGTON (3TV/CBS 5/AP), they clearly and correctly note "Krzanich (Intel CEO) says the announcement comes partly in response in part to Trump's tax and regulatory policies". The grammar is a bit contorted but you get the idea.
Lesson learned: One must be very discriminating these days when they partake of news stories.
http://www.azfamily.com/story/34457327/intel-to-invest-7-billion-in-chandler-az-factory-3000-people-to-be-employed
~ or ~
https://goo.gl/y7u9N2"
But above that statement in the written piece, we have:
"Intel chief executive Brian Krzanich made the announcement during a meeting with President Donald Trump on Wednesday."
It appears to me Krzanich was merely using the photo and publicity opportunity of the Trump meeting regarding tax and regulatory policies to "announce" what they had been planning to do all along. I have read about this, too, but have seen nothing from Krzranich or any other Intel spokesman to suggest they would not have gone forward with their plant and the hiring plans had Hillary Clinton won Florida and Michigan instead of Donald Trump or in the absence of whatever still to be determined tax and regulatory policies wind up in law over the next few years. I have only read that the "announcement" came as a result of those kinds of discussions.
Let me make sure that I am understanding this. Intel built a factory in 2011 but kept it closed. Now with the Trump economy expanding, conditions are ripe to open it and start production. It was decided in 2011 to announce this on 02/08/2017? You Trump haters have to let it go sooner or later, even if Trump had nothing to do with the decision by Intel.
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gawd....I agree that one needs to be VERY discriminating about believing news stories. There are certain sources that are close to 100% FAKE NEWS.
However, one must also be very careful when reading another posters conclusions - especially when they have no evidence whatsoever to back them up.
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Pig....I do not think the Trump-haters will ever "get it." They hate America, they hate law and order - and they hate having borders.
They had all the cards for 8 solid years and just cannot accept reality - that Donald Trump won by almost 100 Electoral votes.
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Amzn and googl starting off beautifully ….perhaps, proposed Trump tax plan?
Gabe
Honeybee said:
"However, one must also be very careful when reading another posters conclusions - especially when they have no evidence whatsoever to back them up."
I understand, Honeybee. For my part, I also offer this, from CNET, a non-political media source that is all about covering the latest tech news:
Trump touts new jobs as Intel resurrects Arizona chip factory
Intel's mothballed Fab 42 is back in business to make next-gen chips. CEO Brian Krzanich uses it to endorse White House efforts to boost US manufacturing.
https://www.cnet.com/news/intel-chip-factory-trump-us-manufacturing-arizona/
"...Although Intel capitalized on the administration's priorities, that had nothing to do with the company's actual decision. "We're thrilled to have the recognition for the investment and to be able to show people we're investing in the future of innovation in the US, but it wasn't tied to any specific policy or anything the administration did," Intel spokesman William Moss said. "It's driven because we anticipate demand for the factory along the time frame it'll take us to complete.""
This is becoming a familiar pattern. Companies that are and have been doing well enough of late to plan new factories, new hires and so on, piggy-back on the President Trump media feeding frenzy to make the "announcement" of something they'd planned to do regardless of any or no future tax cut and regulation reduction proposals. Might as well, why not? Free publicity. Then then watch to see if their stock prices rise over the next few days on all that extremely high-profile and, by the way, free media coverage.
No harm in that. Nothing illegal about it. Nobody's making that case as far as I know. I'm sure every CEO in the country is delighted by the prospect of their taxes being reduced and regulations either waved or ignored going forward. Many are happy to endorse it. And they might as well "announce" how much they approve of that idea while they are also "announcing" the plans they already had in the works before the election.
But making a connection between those kinds of economic proposals and business expansion/massive jobs creation is virtually a non sequitur. I assume most CEOs of major corporations must know that. There is no historical evidence that greater economic expansion, rising stock and property markets, greater jobs creation and so on follow the kind of tax cuts and deregulation proposals on the table here. Not for the past 100 years or so at least. Quite the contrary. But it can certainly make life easier and further enrich CEOs of major corporations in the short term. So why not endorse it while making the announcement of their plans.
It's always nice to have our Bacon Boy, particularly with a side of snark!
Gawd said: " I also offer this, from CNET, a non-political media source that is all about covering the latest tech news:"
Hahaha, yes, "non-political." Just like the NYT, CNN, Google, Twitter, Yahoo, Marketwatch, Facebook, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the scientific community, the sports culture, popular culture, academia, etc. etc.
Bluce, yes, I assume their editors and writers are to some degree as related to the government or the public affairs of their country as is everyone else in the world. But does your post mean you think the tech geek squad over at CNET just made up that stuff about the Intel spokesman saying the decision to fire up the factory and hire more employees was not tied to any specific policy or anything the Trump administration did and, instead, that it was simply driven by their anticipation of greater demand for their product?
If so, what political motivation would you suspect they had to make up such a thing?
Brinker won't retire. Where would he sell the "Market timer" newsletter? SHIFTY
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Received notice to pay for the Marketimer a month sooner than usual. I guess money is growing tight!
Gabe
Gabe,
Is there a "Starship Retirement refundability Clause" in your renewal notice?
JC
JC, why yes there is. It's in the fine print on
page 8.
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Bob...I don't see it there. Please post a quote.
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Amzn and googl did well today.
Overall, this market is going straight through the roof! Will decide this weekend whether to “ring the cash register” and take some off the top.
Gabe
JC: I searched the discarded envelope and found none!
Thanks,
Gabe
Looking for other choices of no load low duration high yield funds. Not a lot similar to Bob's. Found thopx.Looks promising.
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Well, Thursday we had 6 horses race and only one came in third. Friday we had 2 horses run and we had a second place finish. So…one cannot make any money with these numbers. Saturday we’ll have three horses entered and Sunday we’ll have 3 horses entered. Hopefully, better luck!
Gabe
Phil:
THOPX does look interesting in some ways. Duration 1.15 yr, SEC yield 3.48%, low minimum investment, but ER 0.71%. Mainly invested in BBB corporates; only 13% is BB or less.
Problem is that it takes more credit risk than a higher quality corporate fund like VFSUX. Looking at a 10 yr chart of NAV, there have been times (2008-2009, Feb 2016) when it has lost 15-20% of its value. Not what you normally want in a short-term bond fund. Most would say too much correlation with the stock market.
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