UPDATE ON BRINKER RECESSION AND STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Bob Brinker follows several indicators in his timing model, which he called "pre-recession indicators" this month. I think that is because he believes 20% + bear markets are preceded by recessions.
In the February 2017 Marketimer, Brinker reviewed these indicators.
- Accelerating Inflation
- Payroll Growth
- Rising Unemployment Claims
- Inverted Yield Curve
- Leading Economic Indicators.
As Jim commented, in the opening re-run monologue that Brinker chose today, he took another very subtle shot at the president - from Brinker's perception of what the president advocates.
Jim said...
I thought Brinker would take vacation last weekend but he decided to wait for Presidents Day since the market is closed Monday. Speaking of presidents I noticed Brinker couldn't resist a taking a few indirect shots at our current President in his brief opening monologue. He mentioned something about "protectionists" don't understand this or "protectionists" don't realize that. Brinker never mentions who he thinks these so-called "protectionists" are but we all know who he thinks the main "protectionist" is. Brinker needs to realize that there are a few things "Globalists" like himself don't understand either.In addition to talking about this subject almost every time he is on the air, Brinker also wrote about this in the February Marketimer: "Clearly, investor appetite for risk could be reduced in the event the U.S were to pursue a policy of trade protectionism or in the event the free flow of employees and commerce were to be disrupted by ill-advised policies. We will remain vigilant in the current environment in the event changes to our market outlook occur."
57 comments:
I just checked the front page and sure enough, HB says it's an (unannounced) rerun.
My first clue was him going to a commercial five minutes into the monologue. Bobby must think his listeners are really stupid.
.Bob Brinker is NOT hosting Moneytalk live today
Many people think that when the show is live.
( I've read that you can unfreeze a body only for a few hours, then put it back into stasis for another month.)
Haha, this "show" is such a hack job.
Good evening, Bacon Boy.
THAT Bob must surely take more naps than Hillary. I am beginning to wonder if even the "live" shows are truly live.
Think about it. On most talk shows people start calling in an hour or two before the show. Then, after the show you have a queue of callers that never got on. Add that to the "free time" enabling him to take calls during the endless string of commercials.
So, I submit that by showing up only 8 or so times during the year Bob could easily produce enough content to provide the stations with 156 hours of air time...a mix of reruns, pseudo-live and occasional live shows. Season to taste and stir slowly on low heat.
Bob takes a call from Bob in KSFO country. One of the caller's questions is whether an actively managed bond fund is better than an index fund. Bob says it depends what's in the fund and the fees.
I don't know how old this call was, but he's been vocal for some time now about how well his income portfolio of bond funds has done. Aren't these all actively managed funds?
Gee said... Personally,I have no problem with the reruns.
I still watch the reruns of Gilligan's Island, and I especially like the reruns in the NY Times and Chicago Tribune. Why write new stuff? boB gets away with that in the news rag too.
Wow - they are really going into the archives to put this re-run together... I just heard a replay from a call to Bob that I made to him well over a year ago!!
It was the one about SPIC insurance - the irony is that the answer would be same if i called in today!
Cheers.
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Pig....Did you hear about some good skiing in the Reno/Tahoe area?
BTW: Yes, you are certainly right about Bob Brinker getting away with re-runs in the newsletter.
Several pages are direct copies each month - with very little changes. Even the so-called "Stock market timing update" looks very similar to last months and even last years.
I listen by a Moneytalk on Demand subscription because his broadcast on our local radio station is pre-empted many times a year for live sports play-by-play broadcasts. A couple of years or so ago he went from two broadcasts a week (Saturday and Sunday) to just the Sunday broadcast - without reducing the subscription price. Now he fakes the remaining Sunday broadcast many times - and we are still paying the same original Moneytalk on Demand subscription price?????
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Frankj.....In Brinker's (or whoever he tasks with doing it) search for calls that were subscribers with big money, he doesn't seem to pay much attention to information that is not current anymore.
You are correct. The three mutual funds in the "income portfolio" are all managed - and have higher expense ratios:
DLSNX
MWCRX
OSTIX
Gee: You have an interesting point. If I were Bob, I would announce before hand that the pre recorded show was a review of previous shows so to give the listener a review of listener calls to enhance their understanding of important topics. How is that to market his absence!
Gabe
I thought Brinker would take vacation last weekend but he decided to wait for Presidents Day since the market is closed Monday. Speaking of presidents I noticed Brinker couldn't resist a taking a few indirect shots at our current President in his brief opening monologue. He mentioned something about "protectionists" don't understand this or "protectionists" don't realize that. Brinker never mentions who he thinks these so-called "protectionists" are but we all know who he thinks the main "protectionist" is. Brinker needs to realize that there are a few things "Globalists" like himself don't understand either.
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Jim...I've heard that protectionist speech before when the president was just a candidate - or it might have been afer the election.
However, you are right that Brinker likes to take indirect potshots at the president. He seldom lets a week go by that he doesn't do it - or tries to get his guest to do it directly.
I also do not mind the re-runs, some I had not heard before so they are new to me. They also seem to streamline the show and the pace is faster than a LIVE show.
I did find it curious several times during the show that Bob mentioned the market was at all time highs......almost made me feel the show was LIVE.
Finally, I just caught the tail end of a call during the third hour in which they were discussing the length of a mortgage. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of the call and what Bob's point was to the caller? I thought Bob said something about taking out a mortgage for the longest period of time you can.....is that correct?
I enjoy reading the blog and comments.
KC
I did find it curious several times during the show that Bob mentioned the market was at all time highs......almost made me feel the show was LIVE.
Yep. It's amazing how little the investment situation changes day to day. BB is merely an entertainer who can do reruns with no loss of value.
But in the real world, the Primary Trend is still UP (has been since 2009!). Of the 3 best criteria, only one has cracked in this massive bull, the 15.7% of Select Blue Chips now Undervalued (below 17% is one of three market timing points, but we need all three before panicking).
But the other two indicators, the Dow yield is 2.36% (not down to 2.20%), and the Overvalued/Undervalued Select Blue Chip ratio is still 1.7 (not yet 2). So a market is still pointing to the upside. When all three factors align, the bull market is on fumes and it's time to sell. Not there yet.
In the February 2017 Marketimer, Brinker reviewed these indicators...
Yeah, and he makes sure he doesn't tell us "when" those indicators "indicate" anything! Zero metrics. Hence, BB hasn't said a thing. His "predictions" for market timing are pure snake oil. He's an entertainer, nothing more. Great work if you can get it.
Protectionist are fighting nature.
Fact is, we need a forward thinking President.
Artificial Intelligence will have an impact perhaps equally disruptive as when electricity was invented.
What has the administration done or said about the emerging technology that will soon wipe out a large percentage of jobs?
Considering Moores law, the US could fall behind and struggle attempting to play catchup with China in fours years time.
But hey, maybe I'm wrong and assembly line work and coal power are the future.
Since Bob doesn't like original, I wonder if he uses used toilet paper?
Well, it is relaxing to have a holiday today without having to be absorbed with following the market ticker!
Gabe
Bob mentioned Smoot-Hawley tariffs last week, and the recorded monologue yesterday discussed protectionist policy. According to Wikipedia: "[The Smoot Hawley] tariff imposed an effective tax rate of 60% on more than 3,200 products and materials imported into the United States, quadrupling previous tariff rates on individual items, but raising the average tariff rate to 19.2%, in line with average rates of that day." Prior to Smoot-Hawley, tariffs were very common [they were the primary means of funding the federal government prior to the income tax], but it looks like SH was a break point. President Trump is not recommending a 60 percent tariff rate, and is there any other tax than state sales tax? So, while SH contributed to the Great Depression, would modern day tariffs at a reasonable rate do something similar? I would be skeptical.
Steve in Harrisburg.
Pig said:
I still watch the reruns of Gilligan's Island, and I especially like the reruns in the NY Times and Chicago Tribune. Why write new stuff? Bob gets away with that in the news rag too.
Good for you Mr. Bacon Boy! And while you didn't specifically mention it, surely you are aware that the financial advice gleaned from Gilligan's Island (particularly from Ginger Grant) is far superior to BB's.
JC
Interesting article regarding market psychology and sentiment:
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2017/02/20/gauging-market-sentiment-selling-greed-is-harder-than-buying-fear/
~ or ~
https://goo.gl/74MG2x
JC
JC: I've been following Gilligan's investing strategy for years now. He said to put everything into "pork" (ahem) bellies and coconuts. I'm inching, ever so slowly, into Warren Buffet's level of wealth.
We had our 6th winner this racing season! Whoopee!
Gabe
I still watch the reruns of Gilligan's Island,
No matter how many times you rewatch it, MaryAnn's top is not coming off - I swear, but I know, we all still hope.
As long as we're talking about it, was informed at VIP check-in that In-N-Out Burger opened a shop across the street from Caesars, down the Linq alley. Checked the prices, expecting a huge surcharge. Not so. Just $2.85 for a standard burger. Once again, a privately-held American firm does the right thing. And they pay their employees much above the minimum wage, without having to be "protested" by leftists.
If you want to meet the young lady who owns the billion-dollar company, check Wikipedia for "Lynsi Snyder".
--Johnny Vegas again
This market is going bananas this AM!
Gabe
Bluce,
As you are probably aware, Warren alternates his breakfast ordering strategy (Bacon or Sausage Sandwich) depending on market conditions.
http://www.upi.com/Entertainment_News/2017/01/28/Film-Warren-Buffett-prefers-a-295-breakfast/5571485646339/
~ or ~
https://goo.gl/gzKXeV
JC
Oops! S & P value is 130% of GDP. How much higher can it go?
Watching Scary TV pictures of CA weather. Hope HB is ok.
.
sn...Thanks for your concern. So far, so good for me. The power pops off occasionally, but so far, has come on again soon.
The roads are a disaster with slides and trees coming down. And yesterday we had regular flash flood warnings in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
It's rained quite a lot today, but nothing like the past couple of days when it was a constant deluge.
Sure hope we can get a bit of a reprieve soon and let the water soak down and our trees get a more firm footing.
Well, our record at the race track(s) is as follows: 77 Starts 6 win. 8 place (2nd) 16 show (3rd). We have been in the top three 39% of the time so far. Not great but not bad either!
Gabe
The original comments about Bob Brinker faking his presence on Moneytalk were okay but after a day or two, the comments degraded into nonsense that is wasting my time to read them.
hung wong, Oops! S & P value is 130% of GDP. How much higher can it go?
5 things:
1) Wasn't the S&P/GDP was this high at the end of 2014? Glad I didn't get out then!
2) There is the "stock market" which is clearly overvalued, yes, but then there is the "market of stocks". About 20% of blue-chip, A rated, reliable, dividend paying stocks are undervalued based on their historical numbers. I buy those to sleep better at night.
3) Because interest rates are so low, there is no easy replacement for stock dividend yield. This is another reason stocks should currently trade much higher than the norm. We should expect a 1.5 to 2 if ZIRP keeps up, IMO.
4) The FED is clearly protecting the stock market with monetary policy due to 2008 jitters. They don't have much choice with ZIRP and their dual mandate. They have to keep the party going, no matter how much Yellen hates Trump.
5) If Trump can get his spending spree through Congress (he will, Dems love to spend), better be in the market. We haven't had supportive fiscal policy for 6 years due to Obama pissing off the Republican Congress. So I wouldn't be surprised at a wild boom. We could see some crazy overvalued market numbers before this ride is over. I want a piece of it!
And again, one need not fear the overvalued stock market (it's been this say since 2009 IMO) if one only buys from the A rated, dividend paying, historically undervalued market of stocks. But I would avoid index funds, myself.
.
Pedal power said: ".....the comments degraded into nonsense that is wasting my time to read them.
Now isn't that a coincidence, Pedal power! I thought exactly the same thing when I ready your comments.
Spruce them up so we don't waste our time on them. Okay?
I'm so glad I found this site. I subscribed to BB's newsletter when he issued his famous QQQ buy alert in the early 2000's before it proceeded to tank...needless to say, I let the subscription to his newsletter lapse. I did not realize he never issued a sell recommendation during the 2007-2009 bear market.
Within the last couple of years, I found his radio show again - on the internet - as he is not broadcast on any local stations where I live. I just assumed he had long since retired.
His shows have always been somewhat entertaining and I believe he does provide some basic level of investment education and advice.
That said, one must always conduct their own due diligence and investment research and understand their own level of risk tolerance before investing.
Keep up your good work. This has been very informative reading about his track record or lack thereof.
A mixed market!
Gabe
Re: Honeybee V. Pedal Power:
Honeybee, you still have The Gift! You are the Greatest!
JC
Wacky Wednesday Fun Facts:
Q. How may people are employed by The Federal Reserve System?
A. Over 22,000
-------------------------------------------
A Day at the FRS:
1. Find the stapler
2. Pass it on
3. Find a staple
4. Pass it on
5. Supervisor to Perform QC Check #1
6. Find the documents
7. Pass them on
8. Supervisor to Perform QC Check #2
9. Supervisor passes stapler, staple and documents to the Kitting Manager for final component check prior to production.
10. OH NOooo! We needed 100 staples!
11. Return all items to the Raw Material Inventory Manager
12. Restart the process...NO, WAIT!!!
13. Break Time!
No wonder we are unable to get any straight answers out of this clown parade. Transparency? I think not.
.
Thank you, JC....I'm blushing. :)
Four horses racing this coming weekend. Might add some this Sunday!
Gabe
It appears like a mixed day today as well.
I was scrolling rapidly through my twitter feed and suddenly slowed the pace, as I thought I saw an image of Alan Greenspan. (It was a much smaller image of the link below).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5YVAo6WAAEHaW1.jpg
Then, once I read the headline I realized my mistake.
"Justice Ginsburg Doubtful America Is Becoming Great Again"
Aren't The Supremes supposed to conduct themselves in an apolitical manner?
.
Mad as hell....That is not the first time that Ginsburg has made political comments that are negative about President Trump.
She sorta apologized last time and should RESIGN this time. That comment is inexcusable.
It's definitely time for term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court.
Honeybee,
Take a look at her expression. Ouch! There are some very nasty things occurring on Floor #2 of her head.
https://goo.gl/y97XOe
FWIW: Conservative justices are not allowed to make or think political opinions, however, liberal justices have free rein and are encouraged to do so.
DRAIN THE SWAMP!
Bonds doing well this AM!
Gabe
I was pulling for a pullback! A 5 to 7 percent pullback would be healthy at this level! This market is overbought in my opinion.
Gabe
Gabe: Bonds doing well this AM!...I was pulling for a pullback! This market is overbought
Are you referring tot he bond market or the stock market re overvalue?
Honeybee,
I heard about this on KFI radio today.
What the heck is going on up there? I expect this kind of idiotic stuff in LA, but I didn't think it would occur in Santa Cruz!
Maybe the Police Chief should adopt these lovely Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) "pillars of the community"?
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/23/santa-cruz-police-homeland-security-raids-immigration-status-not-gang-related/
http://www.ksbw.com/article/homeland-security-fights-back-against-santa-cruz-police-allegations/8973932
MK: Sorry, I was unclear. I meant the stock market.
Gabe
Pedal Power said... The original comments about Bob Brinker faking his presence on Moneytalk were okay but after a day or two, the comments degraded into nonsense that is wasting my time to read them.
OH DEAR ME! I'm so distraught over that comment. Wasting your valuable and precious time was the furthest thing from my mind. I'm so sorry. I have several suggestions for you. Please post your email address or phone number so I can professionally and satisfactorily make it up to you and tell you what is on my mind right now. TIA
We had our 7th winner yesterday! Whoopee!
Gabe
NASCAR race today is being sponsored by, wait for it, QQQ! Bob's famous recommendation that cost me substantial.
I wonder if bob is at the race enjoying himself?
We canceled our on demand several months back for this reason.
8th winning horse yesterday! We're on a roll!
Gabe
I have been listening to Bob Brinker on the radio for years. He is the most well-balanced financial commentator in the media. He always remains sober regarding the markets and the general aspect of diversification. However, I do smile when I think of the times, especially in 2000 and 2008, where he poo-pooed professionally authored books entitled: The Dow 20,000 and 36,000, etc. Now we all know it has happened (20K) and 36,000 is a possibility.
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