Last Tuesday, Mark Levin talked about Bob Brinker's "weekend" show and said he was "Riding on the Good Ship Moron."
Thanks go to TFB who reported this and made a Youtube video for us. You can listen to the section of Mark Levin's show where he says that anyone who thinks the economy is doing well because the stock market is up must be riding on the "Good Ship Moron" and is an "economic illiterate." (see link below)
Levin gives some facts about current unemployment, manufacturing contraction, and other economic data that makes Brinker's bear-bashing last Sunday look questionable.
As Levin says in the video, "Most of the indicators suck," but as of July 1st, all components in Brinker's Timing Model remain in favorable territory."
* The Marketimer timing model consists of four components: Economic Outlook; Monetary Policy; Equity Valuation; Equity Valuation; Investor Sentiment. Bob talked about his timing model at a public Leukemia event in San Jose a few years back, and I double-checked in Marketimer -- it has not changed.
BE ADVISED:
* Bob's timing model missed the worst major bear market since the Great Depression in 2008-'09, and his model portfolios lost 57% -- top to bottom. November 22, 2008, this exchange on Moneytalk: Caller Darryl asked: "Did your market timing model detect any of this chaos in the market?" Bob Brinker answered: "It did not."
Watch The Fluffy Bunny's five-minute video of Mark Levin slamming daBrink (LINK)
12 comments:
Not good news:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. created just 80,000 jobs in June — about one-third of them temporary — as evidence hardened that the economy has hit another rough patch.
This is definitely not good for the United States. This means that more are applying for lifetime benefits -- makes unemployment's 99 weeks look downright puny:
Disability Ranks Outpace New Jobs In Obama Recovery
By JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
More workers joined the federal government's disability program in June than got new jobs, according to two new government reports, a clear indicator of how bleak the nation's jobs picture is after three full years of economic recovery.
The economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. But that same month, 85,000 workers left the workforce entirely to enroll in the Social Security Disability Insurance program, according to the Social Security Administration.
The disability ranks have outpaced job growth throughout President Obama's recovery. While the economy has created 2.6 million jobs since June 2009, fully 3.1 million workers signed up for disability benefits.
In other words, the number of new disability enrollees has climbed 19% faster than the number of jobs created during the sluggish recovery. (Even after accounting for people who left the disability program because they died or aged into retirement, disability ranks have climbed more than 1.1 million in the past three years.)
And the disability ranks will continue to swell. In just the last month, almost 275,000 put in applications for disability benefits. Experts say that more people try to get on disability when jobs are scarce, and changes to eligibility rules enacted back in 1984 have made it far easier to qualify.
In addition, while hiring has been very weak during the recovery, the number of people who have dropped out of the labor force entirely has exploded by 7.3 million since June 2009, an IBD analysis of BLS data show. Some aged into retirement, but most either signed up for disability, stayed in school, moved back in with parents, or just quit looking for a job.
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ECRI: U.S. Economy Sours
Posted 06/22/2012 07:23 PM ET
"In the latest evidence that America is in at least another soft patch, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading U.S. index fell 0.5 point in the week ended June 15 to 121.3, back at the lowest levels of '12. The annualized growth rate fell to -3.5%, the worst since Feb. ECRI has never backed off its late '11 call that the U.S. is headed for a recession."
Does anybody still agree with ECRI that we are headed for another recession? I think they keep moving the goal posts.
Another recession? If measured as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, probably not. But this economy looks sluggish at best through 2013.
Honey's IBD article is astonishing. More workers enrolled in disability than new jobs found last month.
The Romney camp should be all over this.
Great Barron's bond article today. Intro:
Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, JULY 7, 2012
Best Bond Funds
By BEVERLY GOODMAN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
It's harder than ever to make sense of the bond market. PIMCO, Fidelity and T. Rowe Price do it differently -- and well. Which approach works best for you?
In order to read the whole article -- which is for subscribers -- put the title "Barron's Best Bond buys" into Google search engine, then look for the Barron's article. Here it page that should pop up.
Here is the link that I got with that search. It's the second one down on the list.
I don't know if we should read this article or play an ostrich. You decide:
Economy: 17 Reasons Why The Second Half Of 2012 Could Be A Disaster
What is the second half of 2012 going to bring? Are things going to get even worse than they are right now? Unfortunately, that appears more likely with each passing day. I will admit that I am extremely concerned about the second half of 2012.
Historically, a financial crisis is much more likely to begin in the fall than during any other season of the year. Just think about it. The stock market crash of 1929 happened in the fall. “Black Monday” happened on October 19th, 1987. The financial crisis of 2008 started in the fall. There just seems to be something about the fall that brings out the worst in the financial markets. But of course there is not a stock market crash every year. So are there specific reasons why we should be extremely concerned about what is coming this year? Yes, there are. The ingredients for a “perfect storm” are slowly coming together, and in the months ahead we could very well see the next wave of the economic collapse strike. Sadly, we have never even come close to recovering from the last recession, and this next crisis might end up being even more painful than the last one.
The following are 17 reasons to be extremely concerned about the second half of 2012….
Read more: ETF Daily News
"Then came 2011, and Gross's now-infamous bet against Treasury bonds. He sold all U.S. debt held by the fund early that year, expecting that the government's deficit spending would cause inflation and interest rates to rise. He was wrong, and Total Return had its worst year ever, landing at the bottom of the category."
Looks like Bill Gross The Bond King, can't time the market any better than a coin toss either.
Everybody says to get out of the bond market because rates are going up and they have all been wrong for years!
Timertot
Timertot said: "Everybody says to get out of the bond market because rates are going up and they have all been wrong for years!"
Right, and we do appreciate being reminded of that regularly.
Bob Brinker can't brag about being a buy-and-holder, whose portfolios are underwater from the 2007 highs, so he brags about his off-the-books "income portfolio."
Interesting how he always has some trick up his sleeve, huh?
Birdbrain,
Yes, having more people going on lifetime disability payments than those getting jobs would appear to be unsustainable even to the most uneducated among us...
We know that almost half of Americans are not paying any income taxes at all, so that would appear to be reaching unsustainable proportions too.
Disability is not necessarily lifetime.
Actually most people have to reviewed at 1 or 2 years depending on the severity of their disability. Even people who are rated permanently disabled have to be reviewed at 7 years.
Dan P.,
I did not know that about disability. Thanks for that info.
Now if we could just find out why so many are being approved -- even temporarily.
I have heard over the years that it is very difficult to get on disability.
Good for him!
Livermore Man Arrested on Suspicion of Assaulting Pig at Alameda County Fair
Reports say James Anthony Horn, 22, was arrested after witnesses said he struck pig on the head and buttocks and pulled the six-month-old pig's ears and tail.
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