July 10, 2012....Bob Brinker is waiting for an apology that may never come. Today, Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and CEO of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), made a personal appearance on Bloomberg Television. He announced that "the recession is here right now."
October 2011, I wrote: "Lakshman and Bob in the Thunderdome. Two men enter, one man leaves," because soon after Achuthan's recession prediction, Bob Brinker began regularly slamming the "recession bears."
In February 2012, Achuthan made another appearance on CNBC and restated that a recession was coming, but might take up to six months to become apparent. I wrote about it and posted a video of his appearance HERE.
In March 2012, Bob Brinker said: "You know, we have these private forecasters out there going around beating the drums of recession. Warning everybody that the US is going back into recession. Batten down the hatches and get in the bomb shelter because we are in a lot of economic trouble. That is what they say, but that's not what we see. So far, we see an economy that continues to grow slowly.......One of things that amazes me about the private firms that are forecasting a recession in here is their conviction. I mean they talk about it like it's a fait accompli. They talk about it like it's for sure -- take it to the bank. Well I'm not taking it to the bank. What do you think about that? I think these forecasters are wrong, but I'll look forward to their apology....this is Moneytalk."
May 2012, Achuthan made another appearance and said the recession would be apparent by mid-year.
July 1st, Brinker said: "....it's been a terrific stock market period so far this year. Which flies in the face of so many that were out there predicting a bear market, predicting a recession. I tell you right now, they all look like they're all passengers on the ship on of fools right now. Those people out there predicting the big, bad bear. Predicting the recession. I mean, they're just passengers on the ship of fools." __ Moneytalk
July 5, 20112 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model remains in favorable territory and we anticipate additional stock market progress going forward."
July 1st, Brinker said: "....it's been a terrific stock market period so far this year. Which flies in the face of so many that were out there predicting a bear market, predicting a recession. I tell you right now, they all look like they're all passengers on the ship on of fools right now. Those people out there predicting the big, bad bear. Predicting the recession. I mean, they're just passengers on the ship of fools." __ Moneytalk
Rather than post a link to the Bloomberg video where they have cut out the first part that shows Achuthan saying that the the economy was "tipping into recession," you can watch it on his website where it has not been edited: Businesscycle
39 comments:
"When you look at 2001, you can’t find two negative quarters in a row, yet you lost 3 million jobs. Or half the value of the NASDAQ. How are you going to tell someone that wasn’t a recession?"
I guess a recession is whatever Lakshman says it is. He says you don't have to have two negative quarters of GDP.
How can you lose with a forecast like that?
Don't real economists agree on 2 quarters of negative growth?
There is an uneasy feeling around the world, there are fewer risk takers, and the wise course of action seems to be to invest in government securities that that pay little or even a negative return. In the spring I would have been in the Brinker camp about not entering into a recession, but now I'm leaning more and more toward buying in to the argument for a recession around the corner.
Obama's second year of his second term will be a very low point in the American economy. On the 4th of July, 2014 you may look back at Independence day 2012 and use that as a marker for the start of the down hill slide.
Knoxville Knerd
"Obama's second year of his second term will be a very low point in the American economy. On the 4th of July, 2014 you may look back at Independence day 2012 and use that as a marker for the start of the down hill slide."
Well then we can just avoid all that unpleasantness by NOT re-electing Obama. Think that will work?
ECRI Watch said...
"Obama's second year of his second term will be a very low point in the American economy. On the 4th of July, 2014 you may look back at Independence day 2012 and use that as a marker for the start of the down hill slide."
Well then we can just avoid all that unpleasantness by NOT re-electing Obama. Think that will work?
July 11, 2012 9:35 AM
One can always hope. But I think that it will not happen because there are too many sheep that follow and too many ministers of state that bow down low and slow to the great pop star deity Barrack Husain O' don't blame me.
Knoxville Knerd
Apparently the Fed had no "goodies" for the market traders, and the market has thrown a tantrum!
Seems like a good time to scoop up some shares for a quick bounce since it is grossly oversold and is near its 200-day moving average. Not a recommendation, but I am backing up the truck! Fill 'er up!
Don't real economists agree on 2 quarters of negative growth?
Simply put no. It is a very common measure in the U.S. but far less so once you get out of the U.S.
The Austrian school in particular tends to disavow it. As an FYI some of the largest proponents of the Austrian school are George Soros, Warren Buffet (although lately he has been talking Keynesian) and Ron Paul.
tfb
A quiet running story this morning is about the president's authorization of an executive order that allows POTUS to shut down, intervene or police the Internet in a national emergency.
Is this an overreach of executive power?
If you have a comment, be sure not to say anything bad about the Gooberment, lest this site might be shut down.
Play master
As said earlier, I don't think two consecutive quarters of negative growth is in the near future, but if having to choose between:
a) Stay fully invested through year end
b) Take the 5% gain from the S&P and go
to the sidelines
I'm going with the latter. Sorry, Robert J Brinker Sr.
Birdbrain,
I think it might be telling that Bob Brinker didn't mention his latest S&P 500 Index target range in the July issue of Marketimer.
He reviewed his "timing model" and concluded that it "remains in favorable territory," but simply added that "we anticipate additional stock market progress going forward."
On the issue date, the S&P was at 1362.16.
He reviewed his "timing model"
You mean that useless piece of shit that cannot time a friggin' egg? In the past when it failed he at lest attempted to fix it and retro test it, now he has given up the pretense. You could divine the market direction by counting fish bones in goose droppings with as much accuracy as Brinker has had.
QQQs. 1450 buy levels, getting mauled and averaging down int he 2008 bear...what doe sit take to get people to realize Da Brink is simply the pipe piper of idiots.
tfb
TFB,
I don't know what it will take to convince people that when Bob Brinker issues a "buy signal" that turns out to be correct, that it is like a stopped clock being right twice a day.
That is a good analogy because Brinker simply kept calling bottoms until finally the market bottomed and turned up.
He never mentions all those buy-signals that were wrong, but he constantly brags about the last couple that he made after market turned up from its bottom in May 2009.
It's all a joke anyway because he never issues any sell-signals for subscribers to raise cash.
Dan,
Thanks for your latest take on the market. We love how you gutsily (is that a word? LOL) share what you are doing in real time.
So Knoxville Knerd,
Are you predicting that Obama will be re-elected? =80)
Play Master said: "Is this an overreach of executive power?
If you have a comment, be sure not to say anything bad about the Gooberment, lest this site might be shut down.
Play Master,
I'm sure your question was rhetorical because there has been an epidemic of "over-reaching of executive power" lately.
As for the goobermint shutting down my blog. I have no doubt that I am on a few lists. I try not to talk politics much here because I think that readers are of all political persuasions and I don't want to offend.
But I put no punches when I post on the political threads at Silicon Investor.
Ahh, how much did Brinker leave on the table by getting out of long term bonds in 2003? My long term bond fund had averaged over 12% since and over 30% this year.
Idiotic, Brinker kept saying "the bond market is acting beautifully" then the next sentence was "I'm not interested in long term bonds because rates are going up" and the Dude never put 2 and 2 together.
Joey
Honeybee said...
“So Knoxville Knerd,
Are you predicting that Obama will be re-elected? =80)”.
Not so much a prediction, more like a bet. Obama has the advantage, like a casino, the “House Advantage”. Odds are that if I play at a casino I will lose. Because of their built-in advantage.
If, on the other hand, I do win; jubilation will prevail. Made so much sweeter by the unexpected nature of the event.
If in November, Obama, against the odds, loses; it to will be a joyful event.
Knoxville Knerd
PS. Honey, does “=80” at the end of your comment mean anything. I’m a Knerd but not a social media nerd.
Knoxville Knerd asked: "PS. Honey, does “=80” at the end of your comment mean anything. I’m a Knerd but not a social media nerd."
LOL! Yes, but it would be more clear if I could figure a way to turn it 90 degrees to the right.
It's supposed to be my with my hair standing on end and open mouth screaming. :)
BTW: I think it's really stupid that Google blogs don't allow images in the comments section.
"BTW: I think it's really stupid that Google blogs don't allow images in the comments section."
Yeah, what's up with that? Maybe you should switch to Proboards.
Anyway, the Dow hit 12,500 and has bounced off nicely so far. My truck full of DDMs is exploding! Well, going up, anyway. :-)
Dan,
I can't move because I promised I wouldn't move the blog again.
So I guess the best I can do in comments is post links to images if it's really needed.
Wouldn't you think that they could at least provide some icons....
Okay enough beeching for one day. :)
Anyway, the Dow hit 12,500 and has bounced off nicely so far. My truck full of DDMs is exploding! Well, going up, anyway. :-)
So lost, so very lost. By DDM you are talking about ProShares Ultra Dow30 - correct?
Didn't they close around 64.50 and have they not been down all day? Did you buy in at the 63.50 low?
Or are you tlakign about something else. when I look at this it looks like it has been down all day, trending up as of 1:00 pm EST but still down.
So I am lost, did you short it?
tfb (lost in the wilderness)
Correct, TFB. I bought a bunch of DDMs, ultra Dow30s. Not at the exact low (only Bob can do that!), but as near to Dow 12,500 as possible today, as well as some yesterday (which are still under water, but getting better all the time).
And now the Dow (and DDM) is rising from that level nicely. Here's hoping it continues. If they don't, I'll sadly throw out the entire bunch
Holy bulls and bears! This is nip-and-tuck right up into the last hour!
This is what it's all about, folks. Wall Street drama at its best. Doesn't get much better!
I think I need a drink! Hurry up 5pm!
Go BULLS!
This just in:
Buffett grows more pessimistic on US economy
The Oracle of Omaha, in a live interview with CNBC, strikes a much more bearish tone than he has recently.
Buffet on economy July 12th
The ever adorable,
tfb
I said "Go Bulls". And away they went in the last 10 minutes. Chalk up a 6th day in a row of a Dow loss. This doesn't happen very often...only when I'm long!
Ok, so "turnaround Thursday" failed. But tomorrow will surely be "turnaround Friday"! I have spoken!
"Buffett grows more pessimistic on US economy"
Oh, such audacity! Brinker will rip him to shreds Sunday...if he's not taking another well-deserved rest, that is.
It's funny to listen to BB trash all the "perma-bears" over the years when he himself, apparently, is a "perma-bull."
"Earth to Starship MoneyTalk -- neither position is credible."
Ah, I just knew the market would not dare try to make it 7 losses in a row! Dow 12,500 inspired more than just a dead-cat bounce. The bulls are tearing up Wall Street this morning. It's good to be long...oh, in stocks, I mean! :-)
So the website for KSFO has had its archives feature down for 9+ days, I'm close to missing a 2nd prior wknd of the great MTalk show, DARN.
Anyone else know of where else to download from? (Other stations with archives?)
Thx much
Don in Wa. state
Don,
Suggest you dig deep into your wallet and shell out $3.95 a month for "MoneyTalk on Demand". You should get at least one MoneyTalk show per month. That's just a skosh more than a buck an hour...and that includes commercials!
Don Fleming,
I spent some time trying to find another station that did podcasting or archiving of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk.
Unfortunately, there are none available. So looks like we just have to hope that KSFO is willing to offer the service again.
As you said, they still claim to be working on it, but I am starting to have my doubts.
I smell a rat. We know that Bob Brinker makes money selling "Moneytalk on Demand." This is nothing but a listener rip-off, especially since he is only on once a week now -- and not even that sometimes.
I find it a little strange that people are interested in what Brinker has to say but they don't want to pay.
Free advice is worth what you pay for it.
listener
listener said: "I find it a little strange that people are interested in what Brinker has to say but they don't want to pay.
Free advice is worth what you pay for it."
Oh please. How much does Moneytalk cost when it's broadcast over the airwaves?
Is it more valuable if you build Bob Brinker's bank account to hear what was on the public airwaves for free?
Do it if you want, but don't think it's more reliable or valuable just because you pay him almost $50 a year to hear his "buy my newsletter" pitches.
You can use the FREE HI-Q Recorder to actually download the live stream of the show. The nice thing is you can schedule when to start the recording.
Once you install it, click on options and in the middle of the display you will see: Set Scheduled Recording. Just fill in the time and then open a browser to the livestream of your choice.
tfb
Regarding listening to BB:
I know how to record anything from my PC (and although I've never had the need to figure this out) I'm pretty sure there is a way of automatically recording anything on the internet at a pre-set time in case one cannot be at the computer to hear it live.
Bluce and TFB,
Please share more specifics so that I and others can do the same....thanks
I find it a little strange that people are interested in what Brinker has to say but they don't want to pay.
That doesn't make any sense at all. What's strange about it?
Do you pay to hear what Obama says? Why would anybody?
Recording streaming broadcasts looks intersting allrt, on a family computer less practicle as one needs to have it on that website thruout the broadcast time.
I started going to websites of the list of Rad.Stations shown in Brinkers site. Got thru KABC. Found some other interesting shows to download/listen to, but not surprised none have his show as podcasts (he would not list their station likely if they did offer download..)
OK, likely signing up for the $4 a month.
- I expect his OnDmd downloads offered are the 3 per week, 12 per month?
- Do they have commercials?
(I did grow tired of those cmmrcls/news/traffic interruptions in KSFO podcasts!)
Honey wrote: "Please share more specifics so that I and others can do the same....thanks."
For audio (and some video) I use the "Freecorder" system: http://applian.com/freecorder4/download.php
It is a toolbar in your browser, which I keep hidden unless I need it. But you cannot set an automatic recording time with it as far as I know, so someone else will have to chime in on that.
we're up9 % this year. great except we are still not even from 2007 ! only on brinker mmt. can that be a plus. NEXT WEEK GUEST HOST ARTHUR GODFREY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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