Just like 2010, year-2011 was another (almost) 20% correction year. Unbelievably, in 2011, the S&P 500 Index ended right where it started at 1257.60, but it was a wild ride. Brinker's advice (like it's been since 2003) was to stay fully invested and keep dollar-cost-averaging into the market. In September, he sent out a special bulletin saying that the market was "attractive for purchase" again when the S&P was at 1129.56.
Brinker has three model portfolios that are used for tracking his official Marketimer market-performance record. Model portfolios I and II are 100% stock, and model portfolio III is balanced 50-50 stocks and bond. Model portfolios I and II both lost money in 2011. Let's leave out the three-year time period and look at 5 and 1 year periods. That will even out the results and give a better picture of the effects of the 2008 bear market and the two 20% corrections. This is from Bob Brinker's Land of Critical Mass
5 years ended 12-31-2011 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 4%
Portfolio II: 6%
Portfolio III: 14% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: (2%)
MSCI Broad Market Index: 1% (VTSMX)
1 year ended 12-31-2011 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: (3%)
Portfolio II: (3%)
Portfolio III: 1% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: (2%)
MSCI Broad Market Index: 1% (VTSMX)
December 5, 2011 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012."
26 comments:
Honeybee said;
January 4, 2012....Bob Brinker has posted his 2011 market performance numbers on his website. Something new this year, he added the three year numbers. One might wonder if he did that because the three year numbers no longer include the 2008 - early 2009 megabear. (Brinker's model portfolios I and II were down 57% when the bear bottomed in March 2009.)
Of course Bob is emphasizing the 3 year record; it is good business and a part human nature. When I’m shooting “hoops” with my kids in the driveway. I don’t brag about the games I scored 3 or 4 points I brag about the 20 point games. The 3 year record for Bob is moderately good. Let him brag. We don’t have to listen, but the numbers are what they are.
I am:
Willy looking for Jilly in Philly
"[Brinker]he has predicted low-to-mid 1400's."
Nope. You have to be careful with what Brinker says. He didn't PREDICT the market would be anywhere.
He said it has the POTENTIAL to trade etc etc....Big difference as the market has the POTENTIAL to trade most anywhere.
"December 5, 2011 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012."
bogdog
Willy,
Your analogy of "shooting hoops" may be a good on for what Bob Brinker does that you call "good business and a part of human nature."
He is shooting fish (suckers) in a barrel. And GREED certainly is part of human nature. In regard to that, Madoff did a GREAT business.
What you are ignoring (I know you didn't forget) is that Bob Brinker claims that he has a "timing model" and that he is a "market timer."
It's a crock of bull and you know it. He's selling snake oil!
He has made ZERO market-timing moves since March 2003. He simply holds and then picks and chooses time frames that the market offers that show his abysmal record the least.
Bogdog,
Yes, and with BJ Clinton, it depended on what the meaning of the word "is is."
It's a well-established fact that Bob Brinker is a fabulous wordsmith.
Three different people can hear him say the same thing and each one interpret it differently.
And then Brinker can come on and say, "I didn't say that" to all three.
The man is a genius at deception. I've never said otherwise.
Now that Mr B's palm reading/tea leaves/crystal ball/timing model can't forecast beyond the first half of 2012, may we expect Marketholder subscriptions to be sold in six month terms for $92.50?
Ms Honey suggests:
What you are ignoring (I know you didn't forget) is that Bob Brinker claims that he has a "timing model" and that he is a "market timer."
Bob does have a very accurate and successful timing model.
Several times a month, he pitches his scam in a smooth voice to the Goobers and Geezers, and just like clockwork, cash, checks and credit cards all int he amount of $185 flow into his bank account.
Smooth as silk, and guaranteed in the millions.
Why worry about market trends and stocks when you gots a no-brainer system to fleece the greedy.
BTW, tell Willy, who is looking for Jilly, that Jack found Jill, and went up the hill to fetch a pail of ...............
Never mind...........Mebbe I'll tell HEr later...............
Is this our own Mr Pig?
Zipline-Pig
Jeffrey Gundlach was right about the bond market last year. Bill Gross of Pimco was wrong. What does that mean for this year?
Here is CNBC wrote about Gundlach today:
Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach stood out in 2011 for going long on U.S. Treasurys and for being cautious on the financial stocks, when consensus opinion on both was to do the opposite.
And investors who heeded his advice on Bank of America [BAC 6.31 0.50 (+8.61%) ] profited handsomely, as he was the lone dissenter when everyone else was bullish on the stock.
Therefore, this is a voice investors may want to listen to as we begin 2012.
Gundlach is the CEO and CIO of the fixed-income investment management firm DoubleLine Capital, which manages $22 billion in mutual funds, hedge funds and institutional accounts.
Gundlach’s five key factors that investors should consider in the New Year:
* Stay at your maximum financial asset allocation to US dollar based investments.
*Focus on ridding your portfolio of counterparty risk.
* Suspend purchases of Mortgage REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust), for the time being.
* Expect the nearly universal underperformance by active bond managers in 2011 to prompt a widespread move toward indexation in 2012.
* Keep your eye on the Shanghai Composite Index because it’s persistently weak.
Honey here: I have sold all my mortgage REIT holdings for now. After reading Gundlach's advice, I will be very careful about taking positions again.
Read more
Mr Birdbrain said: "Now that Mr B's palm reading/tea leaves/crystal ball/timing model can't forecast beyond the first half of 2012, may we expect Marketholder subscriptions to be sold in six month terms for $92.50?"
I love your description of Mr B's "timing model©".....I hope he doesn't plagiarize it from you. LOL!
Isn't it amazing that now he claims he can't predict even into the third quarter. Here are his exact words last Sunday: "...and I want to put that in there because we are not talking about what the market outlook will be in the fourth quarter of 2012 because that's too far out, in my opinion. Even in the third quarter is too far out..."
I guess one just has to keep paying for that secret decoder ring just in case the timing model© that missed a megabear and two 20% corrections in four years should start flashing red.
If that happens, head for the hills, the end is near! LOL!
"The Doubleline Core Fixed Income Fund, [DBLFX 10.93 --- UNCH ] and [DLFNX 10.93 0.01 (+0.09%) ], was named the top bond mutual bond fund for 2011 by Fortune magazine and The Financial Times."
Looks like Brinker picked another winner. I remember people here taking potshots at Gundlach. They were wrong too I guess.
Newjob
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- DECEMBER 2011
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate,
at 8.5 percent, continued to trend down, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade,
manufacturing, health care, and mining.
BLS Employment Situation News Release
Reply to HoneyBee:
You make good points about Bob B. claiming to be a market timer. But my take on him is that he is in the business of advising people on how to manage their own money. And, yes he is trying to make a buck, but I don’t think that makes him greedy. “Making a profit equals greed” seems to be what we hear from OWS every time they find a media outlet. You haven’t gone over to their side, have you?
I don’t think that Bob is doing anything wrong. He is trying to put his best foot forward as he publishes his 3 year results. Again, the numbers are what they are. Would you criticize an airline that advertises that they have free Wi-Fi but ignores telling you they have an abysmal on time record? Yes, you would! But it isn’t illegal. Is it immoral or greedy? We must use our own judgment to determine if we want to do business with that company.
We now have a new Federal Consumer Protection Agency and a new Consumer protection Czar. I guess in the future we won’t have to make our own choices. The Government will be telling us what is good and what is bad. Maybe they will look into Bobby’s newsletter and give it a government seal of approval or a thumb down.
That will make our lives so much better.
HoneyBee our lives are full of over exaggerated advertising claims. But we, as thinking logical people are not “fish in a barrel”. We can turn off the message and no one is forcing us to write a check. I’m inclined to be more tolerant of Bob.
Doing his radio show and selling his market timer bulletin is how he makes money. If he doesn’t do that, I envision him twirling a sign on the street corner, advertising spa treatments, massages, pedicures, and teeth whitening at the local strip mall.
I am:
Willy, headed out of Philly, don’t know if I want to keep chasing Jilly.
Newjob said: "Looks like Brinker picked another winner. I remember people here taking potshots at Gundlach. They were wrong too I guess."
Newjob,
Firstly, you quoted an article that I posted above about Jeffrey Gundlach. It would be proper if you would attribute what you are quoting.
And I don't appreciate your false accusations of "potshots" at Gundlach. What you may be referring to is honest reporting of his background and the trouble he had with the company he left. He was accused of some very shady business.
The trial ended with a split verdict.
Second, yes, Bob Brinker did pick a winner (so far) with Doubleline Total Return Fund (DLTNX).
May, 2011, he sold some Ginnie Maes and some Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Funds to put a 20% weighting of DLTNX into his fixed-income fund.
Too bad that he didn't add it to his model portfolios so it would actually help his performance record.
Of course, he still brags about it, like he has with the high-yield fund that he also added to the income portfolio.
What he doesn't do is talk about his losing recommendations, and there are several.
Willy,
Thank you for your reply. However, I have not made myself clear to you. I am not against "making a profit."
What I am against is sales pitches that use subterfuge. In my opinion, it is misleading to give impressions of one's skills and past performance that are not true or do not contain the whole truth.
You say, "But we, as thinking logical people are not “fish in a barrel”."
Not everyone is a victim, but there are plenty who have been sucked into that barrel and lost money. I know this for a fact. And not everyone is as educated as you may be.
There are still many who listen to Moneytalk that are not even computer savvy, so they believe every word they hear. And what they hear is not the whole truth.
I agree with this man who knows himself very well. He said:
"If you are not fully disclosing what's going on, you are in the snake oil business and not to be trusted." __Bob Brinker
Thanks HoneyBee, I get it. Good exchange.
I am:
Willy, seeking thrilly, en-route Orlando, (land of Fandango).
Nobody had been "suckered in" by Bob Brinker. His advice is no worse than they would have been if they bought and held. Probably better because they missed at least one bear market.
You can see his performance numbers yourself and they are not any worse than any other newletter over a long period of time.
Even if they were, he is not a shark for trying to sell his newsletter. That's just plain business.
amberjack
Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.:
True Reflections...on 2011 and 2012
Willy, seeking thrilly, en-route Orlando, (land of Fandango) said:
That's quite a handle. LOL!
I have thoroughly enjoyed our discussion. It's not often that someone can take the position of defending Bob Brinker and stick to that issue without becoming rude. My pink hat is off to you!!!
Please feel free to disagree with me any time. Be careful as you traverse either the hills looking for Jilly or the road to Orlando. :)
From: Boca_PETE
"A Historical Cycle Bodes Ill for the Markets" by Floyd Norris
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/historical-cycle-bodes-ill-markets-190602811.html
It always amazes me how shallow the analysis is in articles like the one linked above. It's as it the author is saying that investors blindly base their actions upon some chart of the past - that they won't dig further to, amongst many factors, compare the economic policies in effect in the periods being compared, what the go-forward economic prospects are and were for the two periods, and what the demographic trends imply at the beginning of each period compared.
As I remember on his radio show, Brinker used to quote from Norris' articles from time to time.
P
amberjack,
I haven't said that Bob Brinker is a shark for "trying to sell his newsletter." It's about taking advantage of a national radio show to deciminate "mischaracterized information" it.
amberjack said: "You can see his performance numbers yourself and they are not any worse than any other newletter over a long period of time."
I can? What period of time are you referring to?
Let's look at ten years according to Mark's Hulbert Financial Digest "Overall Performance Scoreboard" top 7 performers:
10 YEARS (100 newsletters tracked)
1 No-Load Mutual Fund Sel. & Timing 35.2 6.1% 36 1990
2 Outstanding Investments 168.1 19.6% 1 2000
3 Growth Stock Outlook 22.6 4.4% 58 1980
4 Roger Conrad’s Utility Forecaster 66.4 8.6% 15 1993
5 The Oxford Club 87.7 10.1% 12 1995
6 Closed-End Country Fund Report* 147.7 14.6% 3 1994
7 Global Investing 121.6 12.4% 5 1994
BENCHMARKS
0.06 Wilshire 5000 Total Return 100.0 3.9%
0.00 T-Bill Portfolio 2.9 1.8%
So Amberjock....Do you see anything missing there? Can you point out Bob Brinker's Marketimer on that list?
Now tell me again how he "doesn't do any worse than other newsletters."
For those interesting in Mortgage REITS (I have sold all of mine for the time being). Email alert from Seeking Alpha:
12:55 PM As Bank of America soared Thursday on chatter of a mass-refinancing plan, mortgage REITs slid on worries of prepayments slashing returns on their holdings of MBS. The trend was reversed on Friday after an administration official denied the rumors, but mREIT investors remain wary as NY Fed chief Dudley suggests intervention to reduce obstacles to refinancing. For now, many continue to offer double-digit dividends.
(Go to Seeking Alpha and do a search for AGNC to find recent opinions on it.)
Lumberjack sniffles,
Even if they were, he is not a shark for trying to sell his newsletter. That's just plain business.
Didja ever pay for an annual newsletter subscription from Brinker? (Of course that has nothing to do with anything, but neither do your posts.)
Timbrejack also whines, Nobody had been "suckered in" by Bob Brinker. His advice is no worse than they would have been if they bought and held. Probably better because they missed at least one bear market.
These Goobers and Geezers even do better when they read between the lines and figure out what Brinker really means, and which calls to skip.
Wudja believe there are people that have that uncanny ability?
I read it here meeself!
Newjob exclaimed that Bob Brinker had "picked a winner" with Jeffrey Gundlachs' DoubleLine Total Return Fund.
In the same category of off-the-books recommendations, Brinker has been recommending Microsoft for over a decade. According to this Seeking Alpha author, MSFT has been "dead money" for a decade.
Maybe Brinker will read this article and put out another "buy" on the stock. That's the ticket. LOL!
Microsoft’s (MSFT) stock has been struggling for a while and even a hedge fund tried to get the CEO replaced recently. However, even though the stock has been dead money over the last decade, the company hasn’t. It is in fantastic shape. Below I analyze the business from a number of different perspectives. Please use my research as a starting point for your own due diligence.
Microsoft Worth A Shot At These Prices
Again, maybe Mr. Brinker needs to take a look at making a new buy-signal on Microsoft. It's been on his list of recommended individual issues for over a decade and has gone nowhere:
"Microsoft (MSFT), to the dismay of investors of all sizes and types, has been dead money for over 10 years now with its stock price at the beginning of 1998 being roughly equivalent to the way it will close out 2011. Although it has one of the best brands (valued at $43 billion) and most substantial balance sheet of all corporate history that supports its place as a Dividend King, it remains stuck in a tight trading range and a P/E ratio under 10.
Microsoft’s senior management has had to change to a bifurcated strategy for optimizing the business going forward. One segment of the business continues to revolve around Windows, its maintenance and improvements, and Office, the ubiquitous productivity suite that has been the source of so many huge sales gains, and the free cash flow that comes from it.
For a growth platform, it now appears that Microsoft is fully engaged with a combination of cloud computing and the Windows Mobile for smart phones and tablets.
The Only 2 Ways Microsoft Can Avoid Being ‘Dead Money’ For The Next Decade
James Kenney said...
".....sadly there are still people new to the investment game that are getting conned by Brinker Inc. and signing up for his newsletter in the naive belief that he can time the market.
For people who've been following Kirk and Honey who have been systematically exposing the truth about Brinker's market mis-timing moves it is sort of boring, deja vu but for those who don't know da-Brinks real track record it is all too easy to be taken in by the spinmeister."
Honey here: That was posted on Kirk Lindstrom's Facebook "Investing for the long term" discussion forum titled "Bob Brinker Information and Discussion."
I won't bother to post a link because it is now history. Gone, good-bye, vaporized, whacked, terminated.....
I think a person would do better following Suzie Orman's advice, which is free. She talks about dollar cost averaging as does Brinker. As of a couple of years ago, she herself invested almost all of her money (in the low $20 millions) in insured municipal bond investments. She has ~$1-$2 million in stocks, she says she doesn't mind taking the risk of loss. She says she accepts a slightly lower return for the insurance of her principal. I myself don't believe that a DCA recommendation is worth paying $185 a year, nor is a vague, ongoing hunch that the S&P 500 "has the potential" to trade in the low to mid-1400s. 2011 was indeed a rough market for equity investments. Perhaps it is too early to invest in anything other than income producing assets. Obviously, Brinker does not know what the market will do any better than you or I.
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