Bob Brinker's most current stock market-timing advice is to remain fully invested and dollar-cost-average new money.
In the November issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker said that he uses the study of history as one of his market-timing tools. And he called the 19.4% decline of the S&P 500 Index in August 2011 an "intermediate correction."
Additionally, in the November Marketimer, Brinker compared the "waterfall phase" of 2011 (closing low 1119.46) to the "waterfall phase" of 1998 (closing low 957.28). Then he compared the "final test" of the 1998 closing low (959.44) to the "final test" of the 2011 closing low (1099.23) and pointed out that both led to "relief rallies."
Let's dig a little deeper into "history" that Brinker has never talked about in Marketimer or on Moneytalk.
For the record, in 1998, Brinker did just what he did this year and that is to ride down the almost 20% market correction. However, if we go further back in history, we see that he went to 100% cash when it was a mistake to do so. That was in January 1988 after the Black Monday market crash in October 1987.
That was a very costly mistake because the market climbed considerably before he finally got back to a fully invested asset allocation in January 1991.
Here is a complete roster of Brinker's asset allocation. I can personally vouch for all of it except 1982:
Pen-name Math Junkie wrote: “Some have raised questions about the allocation percentage from 1982 to 1987, so I have added a question mark to reflect this. As Steve did, I am retaining information from radio broadcasts, and it is labeled as such.”
* Aug 14, 1982….equities @ 100% (?)……....777
* Aug 21, 1987…..equities @ 100% ................2710(Announced on local radio in New York he recommended being fully invested. He had been mildly bullish to bullish on NBR the previous April, and is said to have been recommending dollar cost averaging prior to August 14th.)
* Oct 19, 1987……equities @ 100%................1841(Black Monday: Dow Down 695 or 25.6% From Top.)* Jan. 1988…….equities @ Zero.…………...2015(Went to 100% cash & told listeners he was
bearish after the market was 9.5% above
bottom, taking the brunt of most of the
bear decline.)* Feb. 1989… equities @ 50%........................2342(Market up 27% from the bottom.)Nov 1989....equities @ 75%.........................2650Feb 1990…. equities @ 40%..................2559Mar.1990…..equities @ 50%..................2635Apr. 1990….. equities @ 65%.................2687May 1990…...equities @ 75%.................2656July..1990…...equities @ 85%.................2840July 18, 1990: Dow @ 3016....(Bull peak: up 50% since Jan. 1988)* Oct. 12, 1990: Dow @ 2398(Gulf War bear bottom. Down 20.5% since bull peak.Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 where Brinker went form 0% to 50%)* Dec. 1990....equities @ 95%......2565
* Jan. 1991…. equities @ 100%..................2550(Finally back to fully invested: Dow up 26.7% since going to 0% equities. Missed out on a large portion of market gains from when he went to 100% cash at 2015 in January 1988.)For the next nine years (January 1991 to January 2000), Brinker remained fully invested and made himself a legend. (Rode out the 19% selloff in 1998.)
* Jan. 2000… equities @ 40% ………Dow: 11, 122(Lowered equities 60% within 5.1% of S&P top,and recommended putting cash in money market funds .)* Aug. 2000… equities @ 35% ...........Dow: 10,688* Oct. 16, 2000…equities @ 35%......QQQ = $83(65% now in cash reserves)
(Told subscribers to put 20% - 50% of (the 65%) cash reserves into QQQ for counter-trend rally.)* Jan. 8, 2001…equities @35%....QQQ = $62.44(Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ.* June 8, 2001….QQQ = 47.35 (Placed on hold)
Repeated same recommendation in February through May 2001 issues.)
* Sept. 21, 2001…equities @ 35%...(Dow 8236 – hit 7926.93 intraday.)
* Oct. 2002…equities @ 35%...21% actually remaining in equities…Dow 8950(Still recommended 35% equities, but P1 in newsletter is 21% equities (not counting QQQ trades apparently due to lack of rebalancing.)
* March 12, 2002…23% actual balance in equities …Dow 10,586(DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing.
DJIA same level as August 2000 5% sell.)
* Oct 9, 2002…19% balance in equities…Dow 7286(Cyclical low so far. QQQ = 20.06, down 75.8% from10/16/00 buy at $83.)* March 11, 2003: equities @ 100% …Dow 7568; S&P 807.48.(Issued bulletin on website before open based on March 10th close. QQQ = 24.01; S&P500 = 807.48; SPY = 81.32. He ended all guidance for existing QQQ positions in March, 2003.)* March 15, 2003….Announced 100% to weekend audience.* March 17, 2003 (Monday)….Dow 8142(QQQ = 26.60; S&P500 = 862.79; SPY = 86.78
typical buy levels for weekend and snail mail
followers who use mutual funds.)* April 5, 2003….100%...(Recommended new equity purchases below S&P 810, and dollar cost averaging otherwise. Stopped mentioning existing QQQ positions in the newsletter text. It was never again accounted for in his reports of newsletter performance.)Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio stock allocations have remained 100% invested since March 10, 2003.[This data was compiled by Math Junkie, Pete from Stamford, CT. MrGreenJeans, DanG. Kirk Lindstrom and SteveT.
19 comments:
Brinker's true performance numbers are next to impossible to track. The only way I think it could be done is to look at someone who started with the BJ group at it's inception and stop at the point where Brinker sold the company. Brinker acted as an advisor for several years after the sale. The new owners stopped following his advice after a while and they face a lawsuit as a result.
[This data was compiled by Math Junkie, Pete from Stamford, CT. MrGreenJeans, DanG. Kirk Lindstrom and SteveT.
WHAT A BORING BUNCH OF BULLSHxx
{Honey edited vulgar word.)
Please sign your posts...
Otherwise, how will I know who is hanging on every word I post but thinks it's boring. LOL!
Jeffchristie,
You are absolutely right, but unfortunately, it is impossible to find someone who had the BJ Group put a large amount of money in Bob Brinker's QQQ trade.
And as you said, Brinker and Jacobs sold out to Genworth Financial.
Our good friend, Will L. pointed out that that this proves that Brinker was dishonest by leaving the trade out of his model portfolios:
Will L. wrote:
“Kinds of puts the kabosh to that silliness of "Brinker is not being dishonest because the QQQs weren't in the model portfolios thus it shouldn't count in his record." That was said though Brinker didn't distinquish the money raised from the model portfolios from being designated "cash reserves" to purchase QQQs and anyone reading that ACT IMMEDIATELY bulletin had to come away thinking it was money that included model portfolios he was wanting them to use.
We know that Brinker, like a crafty fox, has lied by misdirection on his radio program about the QQQ trade. When a caller asked about the QQQs he had been holding since 2000, Brinker claimed that "we closed that position in our model portfolios for conservative investors....yada yada. He claimed he had bought them for 25.00 in 03 and sold them for a profit so that every goober and geezer listening to the guy's Question were misled.
Now we have proof that Brinker's expensive wrap fund (though he ridicules people paying other wrap fund fees) does the exact same hoodwinking deception. We have the record of them slamming everyone into the QQQs and now using the same cr*p "model portfolio" deceptive advertising to hide the abysmal failure on a large investment in the QQQs.
I don't know how you feel ok with yourself arguing to support ole Brinker when nearly every time you make great efforts to alibi for clearly less than honest practices, the truth shows that you were a dupe enabling his marketing dishonesty....ie your high horse claim about Brinker removing library subscriptions.
Now this advertising from the BJ group shows that he/they are hiding the QQQ call which was included in every portfolio during the time they are pimping their performance by the clairvoyant Bobby Brinker with the same hooey many of you use to dismiss the newsletter performance numbers lack of proper accounting for the QQQ event.”__Will L
anonymous....FYI, the reason I am publishing your unsigned posts is to show that "someone" is really unhappy about Bob Brinker's asset allocations being posted here in black and white.
BTW: I know you are grateful that Will is walking white beaches in the Virgin Islands in between racing fine trotters.
But have no fear, I have saved a lot of Will's unmatchable writings about Bob Brinker.
To Will, Brinker was the scum of the Earth.
And whereas, I pull my punches for the sake of having a diverse audience, Will didn't give a darn what people thought of him.
Anonymoussaid...
WHAT A BORING BUNCH OF BULLSHxx
I can see why you would feel that way about Bob Brinker's record as a market timer.
You are right about Will L being the smart one. He predicted at suite101 that Brinker would reenter the market one week before his buy signal in March 2003. Will also sold his equities when Paulson ask Congress for TARP. Brinker stayed fully invested and rode the bear down.
Anony sez (may I call you Anony, rather than what I think of you, and your DOPEY posts, and get censored?)
WHAT A BORING BUNCH OF BULLSHxx
Borring, but not inaccurate, is it?
It's QQQQuite telling how you phrase your BULLSHxx........doncha agree?
Are you gonna revert to savagery and name calling to attempt to gather some self respect now?
A predictable failure, just like Brinker's record, and you're very welcome.
You may agree with this or not, but it's worth reading. Ann Barnhardt is a very smart lady:
BCM Has Ceased Operations (Part 1)
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - November 17, AD 2011 10:27 AM MST
Dear Clients, Industry Colleagues and Friends of Barnhardt Capital Management,
It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. After six years of operating as an independent introducing brokerage, and eight years of employment as a broker before that, I found myself, this morning, for the first time since I was 20 years old, watching the futures and options markets open not as a participant, but as a mere spectator.
The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy.
The futures markets are very highly-leveraged and thus require an exceptionally firm base upon which to function. That base was the sacrosanct segregation of customer funds from clearing firm capital, with additional emergency financial backing provided by the exchanges themselves. Up until a few weeks ago, that base existed, and had worked flawlessly. Firms came and went, with some imploding in spectacular fashion. Whenever a firm failure happened, the customer funds were intact and the exchanges would step in to backstop everything and keep customers 100% liquid – even as their clearing firm collapsed and was quickly replaced by another firm within the system.
Everything changed just a few short weeks ago. A firm, led by a crony of the Obama regime, stole all of the non-margined cash held by customers of his firm. Let’s not sugar-coat this or make this crime seem “complex” and “abstract” by drowning ourselves in six-dollar words and uber-technical jargon. Jon Corzine STOLE the customer cash at MF Global. Knowing Jon Corzine, and knowing the abject lawlessness and contempt for humanity of the Marxist Obama regime and its cronies, this is not really a surprise. What was a surprise was the reaction of the exchanges and regulators. Their reaction has been to take a bad situation and make it orders of magnitude worse. Specifically, they froze customers out of their accounts WHILE THE MARKETS CONTINUED TO TRADE, refusing to even allow them to liquidate. This is unfathomable. The risk exposure precedent that has been set is completely intolerable and has destroyed the entire industry paradigm. No informed person can continue to engage these markets, and no moral person can continue to broker or facilitate customer engagement in what is now a massive game of Russian Roulette.
I have learned over the last week that MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg. There is massive industry-wide exposure to European sovereign junk debt. While other firms may not be as heavily leveraged as Corzine had MFG leveraged, and it is now thought that MFG’s leverage may have been in excess of 100:1, they are still suicidally leveraged and will likely stand massive, unmeetable collateral calls in the coming days and weeks as Europe inevitably collapses. I now suspect that the reason the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did not immediately step in to backstop the MFG implosion was because they knew and know that if they backstopped MFG, they would then be expected to backstop all of the other firms in the system when the failures began to cascade – and there simply isn’t that much money in the entire system. In short, the problem is a SYSTEMIC problem, not merely isolated to one firm.
Continued . . . .
BCM Has Ceased Operations (Part 2)
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - November 17, AD 2011 10:26 AM MST
. . . . Continued
Perhaps the most ominous dynamic that I have yet heard of in regards to this mess is that of the risk of potential CLAWBACK actions. For those who do not know, “clawback” is the process by which a bankruptcy trustee is legally permitted to re-seize assets that left a bankrupt entity in the time period immediately preceding the entity’s collapse. So, using the MF Global customers as an example, any funds that were withdrawn from MFG accounts in the run-up to the collapse, either because of suspicions the customer may have had about MFG from, say, watching the company’s bond yields rise sharply, or from purely organic day-to-day withdrawls, the bankruptcy trustee COULD initiate action to “clawback” those funds. As a hedge broker, this makes my blood run cold. Generally, as the markets move in favor of a hedge position and equity builds in a client’s account, that excess equity is sent back to the customer who then uses that equity to offset cash market transactions OR to pay down a revolving line of credit. Even the possibility that a customer could be penalized and additionally raped AGAIN via a clawback action after already having their customer funds stolen is simply villainous. While there has been no open indication of clawback actions being initiated by the MF Global trustee, I have been told that it is a possibility.
And so, to the very unpleasant crux of the matter. The futures and options markets are no longer viable. It is my recommendation that ALL customers withdraw from all of the markets as soon as possible so that they have the best chance of protecting themselves and their equity. The system is no longer functioning with integrity and is suicidally risk-laden. The rule of law is non-existent, instead replaced with godless, criminal political cronyism.
Remember, derivatives contracts are NOT NECESSARY in the commodities markets. The cash commodity itself is the underlying reality and is not dependent on the futures or options markets. Many people seem to have gotten that backwards over the past decades. From Abel the animal husbandman up until the year 1964, there were no cattle futures contracts at all, and no options contracts until 1984, and yet the cash cattle markets got along just fine.
Finally, I will not, under any circumstance,
Continued:
continued:
consider reforming and re-opening Barnhardt Capital Management, or any other iteration of a brokerage business, until Barack Obama has been removed from office AND the government of the United States has been sufficiently reformed and repopulated so as to engender my total and complete confidence in the government, its adherence to and enforcement of the rule of law, and in its competent and just regulatory oversight of any commodities markets that may reform. So long as the government remains criminal, it would serve no purpose whatsoever to attempt to rebuild the futures industry or my firm, because in a lawless environment, the same thievery and fraud would simply happen again, and the criminals would go unpunished, sheltered by the criminal oligarchy.
To my clients, who literally TO THE MAN agreed with my assessment of the situation, and were relieved to be exiting the markets, and many whom I now suspect stayed in the markets as long as they did only out of personal loyalty to me, I can only say thank you for the honor and pleasure of serving you over these last years, with some of my clients having been with me for over twelve years. I will continue to blog at Barnhardt.biz, which will be subtly re-skinned soon, and will continue my cattle marketing consultation business. I will still be here in the office, answering my phones, with the same phone numbers. Alas, my retirement came a few years earlier than I had anticipated, but there was no possible way to continue given the inevitability of the collapse of the global financial markets, the overthrow of our government, and the resulting collapse in the rule of law.
As for me, I can only echo the words of David:
“This is the Lord’s doing; and it is wonderful in our eyes.”
With Best Regards-
Ann Barnhardt
Mr. Pig asked some very "telling" questions, which so far, are going unanswered.
That's a real "stumper."
Barnmark,
It sounds like you have a personal vendetta against a strong, outspoken woman, but lack the capacity to address the issues that she talks about.
Does it have anything to do with the fact that she stuck her finger in the eye of those who would make women nothing but chattel again if they could?
Anonymoussaid...
"Ann Barnhardt is a dismal failure blaming her failure on everybody else."
Sounds familiar. Where have we seen this before. How about a failed market timer who missed the biggest bear market since the great depression. He claims nobody saw it coming and blames the repeal of Glass Steagall and the failure to bail out Lehman brothers. Then there is that guy in Washington who blames his predecessor, the Arab spring and weather events in Japan. Whatever happened to personal responsibility?
those who would make women nothing but chattel again if they could?
You mean you are not chattel property? Damn, they passed that? Next thing you know women will be able to vote too; won't be able to keep them in the kitchen baking pie!
A usual Cartman(from SouthPark) explains it best:
a women's place
tfb
TFB...LOL!!! Now you are going to get all us "wimmin" down on you again -- and here you haven't talked about "your woman" for some time now. :)
But yes, "baconmarks" is still whining about Ann Barnhardt, but this time he gave away what's really bothering him.
Here is part of what he wrote last (which I didn't publish):
"She bookmarks the Koran with bacon strips and then burns it! Baconmarks"
Now the fact is, there is a YouTube video of Ann Barnhardt doing just what he said she did -- it is a classic and a strong woman at her best.
The kind that Bob Brinker detests.
Sounds familiar. Where have we seen this before. How about a failed market timer who missed the biggest bear market since the great depression. He claims nobody saw it coming and blames the repeal of Glass Steagall and the failure to bail out Lehman brothers. Then there is that guy in Washington who blames his predecessor, the Arab spring and weather events in Japan. Whatever happened to personal responsibility?
Well, just my view, but I think both a just a coupe of whiny female reproductive openings. Pretty much explains everything about both of them.
On the topic more or less(as indicated above), anyone else besides me think it is odd that a liberal dope smoker type, who came of age on the tail end of the free love 60 and 70s managed to rise to the office of Commander and Chief of the most powerful nation on earth, and has almost daily broadcasts, had his picture on almost every magazine cover, and on every newspaper without one single woman ever coming forward who was an ex-girlfriend, ex-lover, ex somebody?
And have you noticed almost every photo of his school years show him in very close proximity to a male? Take this one for example, what do you think of two guys sitting together on a couch like this? What type of guys do you know who would do this?
pretty darn queer
About 4 years ago I interviewed a guy, who said Obama and him had a tryst. I was skeptical then, but after watching the parade of male bonding buddies Obama has had at the White House, first they are tight, playing lots of one on one, and then they are gone, after noting the lack of women who have said "I dated that guy", after hearing his dismissive attitude toward women, his seeming hatred for the sanctity of the womb, it makes one wonder.
So not one single women, in all these poor downtrodden places he has visited has come forward, willing to write a tell all book? And have you ever wondered why he is so estranged from his relatives? Maybe his half brother knew Obama was non-union pipe-fitter?
Anyway, I always wonder about these women hating men. It is always powerful independent women that they rail against.
tfb
Dearest HoneyBee:
All I can say about strong women is - yum!!!
As a special treat a G-rated phote of my teenage male fantasy woman(Dr. Who fans, please take note):
Leela
My first love accommodated me, with a similar outfit for Halloween one year. Ah, the good ol' days. We remain friends to this day. In fact we had lunch about three weeks ago. I wonder if she still has that outfit?
tfb
Well, TFB....Since you are a married man, I'm glad you didn't ask her if she still had the outfit. Not that I think Mrs. TFB is worried..... LOL!!
Naw her and Mrs TFB get along fine. Her daughter has a crush on my son - LOL!!!
tfb
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