Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today.
STOCK MARKET.... Caller Bill from DesMoines asked Bob if he should leave his money in the stock market or perhaps just go out and buy some raw land and hold on to it.
Bob said: "Are you even aware that we are having one of the greatest October rallies in the history of the stock market?"
Bill replied: "All I know is that about two months ago, I was having a really bad feeling in my stomach and I felt powerless...yeah, it's been good lately."
Bob said: "Bill, here's the acid test for you. If you do not have the stomach for the volatility that is inherent in being in the stock market, then you really have to ask yourself what in the world are you doing in the stock market. Because if the stock market through it's fluctuations, and certainly we had a correction in 2011 and we had a correction in 2010, and both of them went into the teenage category. If it's something that's just too much for you to bear, you need to ask yourself why are you bothering with it at all." (Bob told Bill that if its only potential was to provide capital appreciation, he would regard buying raw land as speculation, with a negative tax flow because of taxes.)
Honey EC: After about two months of silence, Bob
finally got an opportunity to say something about the stock market today. He found some solid footing to step on with the October rally. However, when he said
that the 2011 correction was in the "teenage category," my jaw hit the
floor. In my opinion, that statement is very disingenuous and should
be beneath him.
So far this year, the S&P declined to within a fraction of 20% bear territory on a closing basis, and 21.6% intraday. Does a fraction matter? It obviously matters to Bob because he can now claim that he did not miss another bear market because it didn't drop more than 20% on a closing basis. It's splitting hairs and he should be embarrassed. He had no clue how far the market was going to drop, otherwise he would have reassured listeners during the time it was dropping. It's shameful dissembling designed to deceive!
So far this year, the S&P declined to within a fraction of 20% bear territory on a closing basis, and 21.6% intraday. Does a fraction matter? It obviously matters to Bob because he can now claim that he did not miss another bear market because it didn't drop more than 20% on a closing basis. It's splitting hairs and he should be embarrassed. He had no clue how far the market was going to drop, otherwise he would have reassured listeners during the time it was dropping. It's shameful dissembling designed to deceive!
S&P 500 Index statistics for 2011:RECESSION OR NO RECESSION STOCKS ARE UP 9% IN OCTOBER: Bob said: "Here's my opinion of those private economists that are yelling recession. I think they're fire in a crowded theater. A lot of people are nervous. A lot of people are apprehensive. A lot of people are unemployed. And I think if you're a private economist and you're yelling recession out there at a time like this, it's just the same as fire in a crowded theater. And inevitably, you know what happens when that happens, people panic. I think we saw some of that recently in the marketplace -- not in October. We are looking so far, at one of the greatest October stock market rallies of all time. We're actually already up over 9% in the month of October, which is amazing -- especially given that backdrop of people out there scaring investors with the R-word."
Date of Closing High: 04/29/11
Closing High: 1,363.61
Date of Closing Low: 08/08/11
Closing Low: 1,099.23
Decline in Points: 264.38
Decline in Percentage: 19.4%
Honey EC: Bob has repeated this slam that is primarily directed at Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, who says that the economy is "tipping into recession." Please see my previous article titled: "Lakshman and Bob in the Thunderdome. 2 men enter, one man leaves." [LINK]
BOND MARKET/INTEREST RATES...Not mentioned today.
ECONOMY....Thursday, we get the third quarter GDP report. Bob expects it to come in about 2% annual and has made no change to his own estimate of 1 to 2% growth for 2011.
CORPORATE EARNINGS....Bob said that they have been good, so far.
GREECE/EUROPE....Bob used the whole opening monologue discussing the meeting that is taking place in Brussels this weekend. He repeated much of what he has previously stated on other programs, including his midnight guest appearance on Doug's Red Eye Radio where he discussed it in detail. (To read what Bob is saying about this subject, please see my summary of Bob and Doug.)
ICELAND FIRST TO GO "TAP CITY": Bob said: "Iceland is an economy that is basically based on fishing... with only 300,000 population. And Iceland was dominated by three banks. Each of these banks had a few billion dollars, and they built their assets through leverage up to a 140 billion dollars.....Things happened in Iceland that were hard to believe. People who had been fisherman became currency traders......As Elvis once said, that is when your heartaches begin when the fisherman become your currency traders and this is what happened in Iceland."
ICELAND MEN BLEW IT SO WOMEN STEPPED UP: Bob said: "One of the good things that's happened in Iceland -- Iceland had a male dominated political system. A male dominated political party....They eased the bank regulation and set up the scenario under which banks could leverage and then fail, which is what happened. The good news is.....that now that the men have driven the country into the ground, women have stepped forth and have begun winning elective office, moving into positions of power. And the long winding road back for Iceland now begins."
Honey EC: I laughed out loud at Bob's silly hyperbole about "women stepping forward" to fix what the men did to Iceland. Bob has never had a good word to say about women in U.S. politics -- in either party. He hammered Hilary Clinton several time and ALWAYS used demeaning names for her. He has made insulting comments about Sarah Palin, and he's never had an encouraging word for Michelle Bachmann. Matter of fact, I don't remember Bob ever having a kind word to say about any woman whom he might consider a competitor.
BOOK AUTHOR WON'T WORK ON SUNDAY.......Caller Dave from the Iowa said that Bob's opening monologue sounded like he had read Michael Lewis' book "Boomerang." Bob replied that he had seen the reviews and was sure it was a great book and he planned to read it. Bob said: "I've invited Michael on the program numerous times. He was on in connection with "Moneyball" years ago. But I've been unable to convince him that he should work on Sunday, which is what he would have to do to do this program with me in the third hour....I hope he changes his mind and comes on with me."
Honey EC: That was an amusing comment about Bob not being able to persuade Michael Lewis to work one hour on one Sunday. Wonder how he'd feel about working an hour at midnight like Bob has done three times for Doug McIntire's show. :)
ONLY TAXPAYERS CAN GUARANTEE A 7% PAYOUT - INTEREST RATES AND STOCK MARKET CAN'T PAY IT....Caller Burt from New York said he was a teacher planning to retire soon and asked Bob a question about annuitizing his retirement system and collecting 13% per year on $546,000 which is growing at a rate of 7% guaranteed by the state.
Bob asked where they could get the money to guarantee to pay 7% per year. Then he answered his own question (Burt acted like he didn't have a clue) that it was coming from the "taxpayers." Bob called it a ridiculous promise, but it was good for Burt because he is in the "catbird" seat" collecting that much. Bob said: "Well wait a minute, where is the 7% coming from? Interest rates are close to zero. The investment markets have been very challenging for a long time, going all the way back to the late 1990's. To the end of the 90's. The beginning of the year 2000 period, in that first quarter there."
OCCUPIERS....Caller Floyd from Denver challenged Bob today for encouraging and advocating the lawlessness of the Occupy Wall Street crowds. Floyd said that in Denver, the police were getting paid a lot of overtime and might even be staying on past curfew tonight if the OWS crowd had heard the program today. Bob became furious and said that he had never advocated lawlessness or encouraged them.
Honey EC: Bob talked about these occupiers AGAIN several times today, like he has in past programs, and I have to agree with Floyd. Why does Bob feel the need to give them talking points. I won't be covering what all Bob said in detail. But I sure wonder why he has given them so much publicity in light of the fact that all he did was denigrate the Tea Party when they were peacefully and lawfully demonstrating. Once, he even labeled them with a nasty (unmentionable) name.
REPORTS COMING OUT NEXT WEEK:
* Tuesday, Case-Shiller house prices, estimated at 0.2% -- still negative year-over-year.
* Wednesday, new home sales which have been "bumping along" at record lows.
* Thursday, third quarter GDP and initial unemployment numbers which are estimated to be around 400,000, which does not help lower overall unemployment.
Bob's guest-speaker was Dov Seidman, "How: Why How We Do Anything Means Everything" __ with a forward by Bill Clinton.
TUESDAY, IN EDIT: Caller Mark from San Mateo said he was too young to understand what happened during the Vietnam war demonstrations, but that he had heard that at first it was not focused.
Mark's point was that the OCCUPY Wall Street crowd shouldn't be expected to have a focused message yet so Bob shouldn't be critical if he didn't really understand their message.
Mark said: "This isn't against you, Bob, but there is a certain news channel, that's their main criticism -- ah there's no end solution right off the bat. Are you kidding me? That's setting such high expectations...."
Bob replied: "Now wait a minute Mark! That's their business model. Don't you see that? That is their business....This is important...That is their niche! So you know already before you turned them on what they were going to say.
It's like a lot of the talk hosts in America today. I'm not going to name any, I don't have to. It's like most of the talk hosts in America today. You know what they are going to say before they say it.
Happily on this broadcast, that's not the case.....This is Moneytalk."
Honey sez: "ROAR"! Right Bob, "NOONE" ever has a clue what you are going to say before you say it.
Moneytalk on demandhttp://kgoradio.com/ and to go with Bob Brinker, is archived for FREE audio/podcasting at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker. (The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots.)
53 comments:
Honey,
Doesn't sound like I missed much by not listening to Bob. Come to think of it, it's been months since I listened to him.
Al in SJ
That third hour guest was possibly the biggest commie doper type Da Brink has ever had on the air. The dude lives in a land of gum drops and JuJuBes.
tfb
Thanks for the post honey bee I enjoy reading about bob and can not get him in my area.I had to look up two of your words hyperbole and disingenuous which you used correctly so it was a learning experience for me also. I realize you have to be careful with bob and not take him literally. I do think its a good time to dollar cost average into the stock market and this can be done by choosing your own funds as long as they are no load and are well diversified. I enjoy listening to Bobs comments because sometimes even though he keeps repeating himself he is right on about the particular issue.I never understood his constant buy signals because you were either in the market or out. I was in the market through out the entire bear market. When things got better around april I took some funds off the table. I am now slowly getting back in by dollar cost averaging. Even when the market was at its lowest point one of my funds was $200 ahead of the game because of the amount of time I held that fund not timing the market but time in. I hope this helps someone out there.I am not tring to denigrate anyone so please dont denigrate me. thanks...
Interesting commentary about the summit this weekend:
By Marc Chandler
The European debt crisis turns two years old. On average there is a crisis management summit a little more frequently than every other month on average. The most concrete and certain thing to emerge from the weekend's summit is that there needs to be at least one more before the November 3 G20 summit, which is a deadline of sorts for a resolution. The rhetoric of a "durable" or "comprehensive" solution again, proved more difficult in implementation than in declaration as did similar claims this part March and July.
Nevertheless, there has been some important progress over the weekend and additional developments are likely in the days ahead. At the same time, we note a frequent pattern in the currency markets in which Monday activity often sees follow through from Friday, before a consolidative or corrective phase ensues. The euro closed firm near its recent highs before the weekend and sterling and the Australian dollar made new highs in the recent advance. The developments over the weekend may not stand in the way of this pattern.
France appears to have backed down in the face of a German-ECB joint position that strenuously objected to the EFSF becoming a bank to borrow from the ECB. Instead, it appears that the insurance/guarantee function of the EFSF is going to dominate. Although the situation still appears fluid, the momentum seems to favor those who want to have this guarantee function only for new issuance of Spain and Italy. There is another twist that emerged. Alongside the guarantee, the EFSF may set up a special purpose vehicle that would invest in sovereign bonds and would potentially attract other investors, like sovereign wealth funds.
There also seems to have been some progress in the plan to recapitalize European banks. The size of the need is estimated at around 100 bln euros, which is at the end of market estimates. Banks will have probably until the middle of 2012 to raise the capital on their own, including retained earnings. If that proves insufficient, bank can turn to national governments and only if that proves insufficient can negotiations be opened with the EFSF.
Read more
When Bob said we had a "teenager correction" that was a true statement and I think shows how useful his calls are.
Of course nobody can call the market exactly but if you can get that close to a bear market and still stay fully invested you are ahead of the same. I agree with John that it is time in the market instead of timing the market.
Every listener has differenct circumstances I think but overall his advice is good for the average person.
AMwe
Hi Al,
Well, for the most part, you didn't miss much, especially if you read my summary. :)
However, I find Bob Brinker's Moneytalk very entertaining. Bob's political pontificating alone gets the blood pressure up.
Then when he gets on his high horse -- like with "fire in a crowded theater" comments -- it's big fun to see how often he gets knocked off of it.
As you know, he was also bashing the "recession Cassandras" back in 2008. We know how that worked out for him. LOL!
TFB,
I totally agree. He was so far out into never, never land, he was comical.
.
John,
I'm sorry to hear that you can't get Bob Brinker's Moneytalk in your area.
Did you know that you can listen online when the program is on? And also, after the program ends, it is immediately archived for downloading at KGO810.
If you need further instruction on how to do download or listen to the archives, please let me know.
Thanks for the info on Bob Brinker honeybee. I am not that good on the computer and at this time I don't even have speakers. Anyways I am happy that you do your commenting and I will make my comments based on what you write. I appreciate your help and if I can assist you with anything please let me know. I enjoy your blog and thanks again
When Bob said we had a "teenager correction" that was a true statement and I think shows how useful his calls are.
Really? How do you figure. If you listen to Bob's calls you jumped in at 1450 S&P500, road down the greatest bear of everyone's investment lifetime.
Bob's advice is only useful if you have a crystal ball that tells which of his plethora of bad calls you should avoid, in which case with said crystal ball, what do you need Da Brink for?
tfb
That sure was a lively call with Floyd from Denver. Floyd accused Brinker of encouraging the occupy wall street protesters. Bob ask him to prove it and Floyd reminded him that he said they were protesting the wrong thing and told them what he thought they should be protesting. I don't know if that was encouraging them or not but he was certainly giving them advice.
To Bob Sr. / Jr. / bobfan,
Unfortunately we couldn't take advantage of this huge rally because you never advised your subscribers to sell. You never had us sell, therefore we had no cash to invest when the market hit the low 1100s. If you could get us out at the top and then advise us to buy back in on dips, that would be useful. But telling us to buy when we are already fully invested doesn't help much, unfortunately.
AMH
I've been very lucky and increased my lead in the Market Guru of the Month Contest.
Now if I can keep from messing up for a few more days. :)
AMH said: "To Bob Sr. / Jr. / bobfan,
Unfortunately we couldn't take advantage of this huge rally because you never advised your subscribers to sell. You never had us sell, therefore we had no cash to invest when the market hit the low 1100s."
Hi AMH,
I'm sure that the Bob Brinker's and their fans will appreciate your heads-up for them.
Want to take any bets as to how long this rally continues before Bob is bragging about his buy signal at S&P 1029?
He's already talking about the big rally in October. Of course, all the rally means is that anyone who has been following his fully invested stance, has recouped some of what they lost in the recent 19.4% DECLINE.
Two highlights from Honey's summary.
Bob counseling Bill about the two "teenage" corrections:
"If it's something that's just too much for you to BEAR"
Most clever. Point one for Mr B
Bob describing Iceland's woes:
"As Elvis once said, this is where your heartaches begin when the fishermen become your currency traders"
My first reaction was that his meds were wearing off, but after extensive research I discovered that there was an omitted verse from Heartbreak Hotel.
"Well since my baby left me
I've found a new fishing host
With all the currency traders
Off the Icelandic coast"
Point two for Mr B
AHM said:
If you could get us out at the top and then advise us to buy back in on dips, that would be useful. But telling us to buy when we are already fully invested doesn't help much, unfortunately.
Absolutely correct AHM. Over the years Brinker's Buy/Sell ratio isn't even close. I think Brinker has only advised selling twice. I'm not sure how many "buys" he's given. (perhaps Honey or Kirk has the number)
Let's suppose he has advised selling twice, but issued 15-20 "buy" alerts.If someone was fully invested and DCA the rest of the time they would have no money to take advantage. Simple math would tell anyone that 13-18 of the "buys" were meaningless.
Since the "buy" alerts help very few current subscribers one must conclude that the main purpose of them is to attract new subscribers.
If Brinker could actually time the market he would be better at identifying tops and that Buy/Sell ratio I mentioned would be more balanced instead of so lopsided.
"Since the "buy" alerts help very few current subscribers one must conclude that the main purpose of them is to attract new subscribers."
If you have listened to Bob Brinker for a long time he always says if you are going to make a call make a lot of them.
It may be to attract new customers but I think it's just his way of telling his listeners that he is still bullish on the market so they should not panic and bail out at the wrong time.
Every time Bob makes another buy call it should be comforting to know that he is still bullish on the market. That's why it is a good idea to average into the market so you can take advantage of the calls and get a better price.
A45T
A45T,
Well, I give you "e" for effort. It's really difficult to defend the indefensible, isn't it? LOL!
Birdbrain,
Yep, I can hear Elvis singing that very clearly. But it wasn't Heartbreak Hotel that had the lyrics "that's when your heartaches begin"?
Lyrics to That's When Your Heartaches Begin:
If you find your sweetheart
in the arms of a friend
That's when your heartaches begin
When dreams of a lifetime
must come to an end
That's when your heartaches begin
Love is a thing
you never can share
If you bring a friend
into your love affair
That's the end of your sweetheart,
that's the end of your friend
That's when your heartaches begin
Listen to one of the most talented and sexiest men ever to live sing this
Jim said: "Over the years Brinker's Buy/Sell ratio isn't even close. I think Brinker has only advised selling twice. I'm not sure how many "buys" he's given. (perhaps Honey or Kirk has the number)"
Yep, I sure do have them:
April, 2005, (S&P: 1172.92) "Attractive for purchase at the 1120 level"
May, 2005, (S&P: 1156.85) "Attractive for purchase at the 1160 level"
September, 2005, (S&P: 1220.33) Attractive for purchase below the 1180 level"
July, 2006, (S&P: 1280.19) "Attractive for purchase at 1250 level or lower"
April, 2007 "Attractive for purchase at 1380 or lower"
August, 2007 (S&P: 1455.27) "Attractive for purchase mid-1400's.".
• January 4, 2008, S&P @ 1411: "Mid-1400's"
• Feb 10, 2008 S&P @ 1331: "Low-1300's" (delivered via "special bulletin" - no mention of January Marketimer mid-1400's buying opportunity)
• Aug 5, 2008 S&P @ 1285: "1240 or less"
• Sept 2, 2008 S&P @ 1282: "Low-to-mid 1200's"
• September 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)
• January 2009 S&P @ 931: “bear market bottom range of 750 to 850."
• Feb. 2009 S&P @ 826: “low-to-mid 800’s"
• March 5, 2009 S&P @ 696: waiting for a bottom and a test of that low. No DC or buy levels.
• April 3, 2009 S&P @ 798: 676 benchmark low in. Short-term weakness is buying opportunity. He gave up giving specifics. S&P500 Target: 1000s to 1100s in next 12 to 18 months. (we got there in 5 months!)
• July 1, 2010: S&P 1030: "attractive for purchase."
And then this last beauty at S&P 1129 -- SAME level as 2005. This is from the "special online bulletin" sent on September 22nd:
"In our view, the conditions are now in place to justify an upgrade of our stock market view to "attractive for purchase" for subscribers looking for an opportunity to invest new money into the market at attractive prices. In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012."
Note that during all those years, he never issued any sell signals. The only one of his buy signals that the market has NOT subsequently dropped BELOW is the "low-to-mid 800's" in February 2009.
Recall that is the EXACT level of his buy signal in March 2003.
Honey said:
Yep, I sure do have them:
Wow! You've identified about 17 "buys" just since 2005. I was trying to guess how many he has given since Moneytalk began, so maybe the number I was after is closer to 40-50. That makes his Buy/Sell ratio even more lopsided than I thought.
Jim,
I think that is a complete list of his buys since the one where he actually had raised 65% cash (in 2000) and was returning it to fully invested in March 2003.
However, before I can say that I know for a fact that there were none between 2003 and 2005, I need to go through each issue of Marketimer.
I will do that and let you know if I find any others -- but I don't think I will.
In real, inflation-adjusted terms, investors in the U.S. stock market have made effectively no money, even when you include dividends, since the spring of 1998. Even if you invested 10 years ago, in the panic following 9/11, you've made less than 20%. Over the past five years you're down 12%.
And I'm flattering the performance figures. In reality few people have done as well as a low-cost index fund. Most people have had to pay 1% a year or more to a money manager. They've had to pay taxes on dividends. They've blundered in and out of the market. According to the definitive study by Dalbar Inc., largely thanks to poor timing the average investor has underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index by more than 5 percentage points a year over the past two decades. By that standard, most investors have actually lost ground on Wall Street, in real terms, since about 1992.
http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/markets/investors-are-still-in-the-red-1319493427034/?link=sm_newsreel
Underwater
"RECESSION OR NO RECESSION STOCKS ARE UP 9% IN OCTOBER: Bob said: "Here's my opinion of those private economists that are yelling recession. I think they're fire in a crowded theater."
***It's only wrong to FALSELY yell Fire! in a crowded theater.***
Frankj --
Someone mentioned Elvis, earlier.
Well 60 Elvis impersonators left the building, a hotel in the UK, hosting a charity fundraiser.
Kevin Coombes, hotel manager at the Holiday Inn, told the Mirror: "A smoke machine set off the fire alarm and at no point was anyone in any danger - but yes, Elvis did leave the building."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8847440/60-Elvis-impersonators-flee-fire-alarm.html
or link to it through Drudge.
Ahem, whee is my personal technical stock market guru Dan with today's commentary?
tfb
I hope that all of you heard this HILARIOUS line that Bob Brinker shouted on the program Sunday. It's about 43 minutes into the second hour:
Caller Mark from San Mateo said he was too young to understand what happened during the Vietnam war demonstrations, but that he had heard that at first it was not focused.
Mark's point was that the OCCUPY Wall Street crowd shouldn't be expected to have a focused message yet so Bob shouldn't be critical if he didn't really understand their message.
Mark said: "This isn't against you, Bob, but there is a certain news channel, that's their main criticism -- ah there's no end solution right off the bat. Are you kidding me? That's setting such high expectations...."
Bob replied: "Now wait a minute Mark! That's their business model. Don't you see that? That is their business....This is important...That is their niche! So you know already before you turned them on what they were going to say.
It's like a lot of the talk hosts in America today. I'm not going to name any, I don't have to. It's like most of the talk hosts in America today. You know what they are going to say before they say it.
Happily on this broadcast, that's not the case.....This is Moneytalk."
"ROAR"!!!! Right Bob, NOONE ever has a clue about what you are going to say.
Aside from Bob's ridiculous, but funny claims about other talk hosts and himself, it's really shocking to think that he would be so biased about the ONLY major network that even attempts to be "fair and balanced."
Yo, Mr. Brinker, are you really so far gone into the land of liberal elitism that you don't see the almost total bias that is broadcast on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC and all others?
Glenn Beck made his "The Truth About Occupy Wall Street" program yesterday available for free. Just be patient for the three minute news at the beginning.
Bob Brinker could educate himself if he really wanted to by watching this video, but he won't. His mind is closed. He called Tea Party "teabaggers" and says the occupiers are "not focused."
Glenbeck.com
Bob Brinker said:
"It's like a lot of the talk hosts in America today. I'm not going to name any, I don't have to. It's like most of the talk hosts in America today. You know what they are going to say before they say it.
Happily on this broadcast, that's not the case.....This is Moneytalk."
I thought that was the funniest thing Bob said on the entire broadcast. A comment from John on this Blog prior to last Sunday's Moneytalk nailed it.
October 23, 2011 9:11 AM
john said...
Bob is right again also about changing the system we have in place for our government. "Quote"money can buy political office as the enormous amounts buy political favors which funnells from lobyists to politicians..
______
If you had a dollar for every time Bob says "best government money can buy" or when Obama says "millionaires and billionaires" you would be at critical mass.
"Glenn Beck made his "The Truth About Occupy Wall Street" program yesterday available for free."
I wouldn't watch a single minute of anything this crybaby nut offers.
Your extreme rightwing bias is too much for me to handle. Goodbye.
BYE
Bye, Bye,
Bob Brinker discusses the topic of OWS basically giving them credence and recognition. I have transcribed a lot of his comments.
He never discussed the Tea Party or gave them talking points. He has only made passing reference to them in a derogatory manner. Or tried to make moral equivalency between patriots and those who want to bring down the whole United States system.
I offer an opposing viewpoint and you have a hissy fit. Good bye. Don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out.
"I offer an opposing viewpoint and you have a hissy fit. Good bye. Don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out."
You have NEVER offered an opposing view. You rightwingers seem to think that propaganda pieces from wingnuts like Beck and other crazies is a balanced approach.
I have listened to Brinker and he in no way endorses either the Tebagggers as you call them, or the OWS. It's in your head.
BYE
BYE,
I thought you were leaving!
You're right that I seldom offer an opposing viewpoints, other than to point out Bob Brinker's BIAS!
You just showed why I try to avoid getting too involved in politics. I know there are some who don't agree with me and I don't want to offend them.
But any time Bob Brinker slants and demogagues like he has with this topic, I am going to offer opposing viewpoints.
BTW: Your lie about what "I" called the Tea Party is duly noted.
Now get lost.
I know there are some who don't agree with me and I don't want to offend them.
Personally, I'd rather go out of my way to offend smoochie liberals, who do nothing but whimper and whine, as BYE BYE is doing.
By OWS, are you referring to those spoiled suburban drugged up white kids supported by ACORN and SOROS, and don't know the time of day?
Bob Brinker could educate himself if he really wanted to
This is an interesting comment becasue either Brinker is a Charlatan Deceiver Huckster or he is actually ignorant about market timing.
So you either think Da Brink has somehow managed to avoid reading the mountain of academic evidence that concludes that market timing does not work or you have to admit he is a Charlatan.
Hmmm, I wonder what is more likely.
tfb
"So you either think Da Brink has somehow managed to avoid reading the mountain of academic evidence that concludes that market timing does not work"
But Dan G. says market timing DOES work and in fact he has sidestepped the last two bear markets at least.
Unlike Brinker Dan actually gets completely out of the market [except for small short term trades and that's just trading, not market timing]
Ask Dan when he shows up again.
areli3
It is true that market timing does not work...for academics and other ivory tower "know-it-alls". They load up their computers with garbage and out pops...you guessed it...garbage!
Timing works just fine for the rest of us who use a modest kit of TA tools.
It has worked fine for Sy Harding's "Seasons in the Sun".
It has worked for IBD followers of CANSLIM.
And it has worked fine for me using a combination of a FEW TA tools, such as daily and monthly MACD, moving averages, stochastics, and chart analysis of pattersn and support/resistance levels (Edwards & Magee wrote the "bible").
You should never rely on only one tool exclusively. For example, my Monthly MACD turned bearish on October 1, but other indicators did not corroborate the sell signal, especially charts, which did show a double bottom just as Bob suggested (he isn't always wrong!). So until other indicators confirm MMACD, I'll remain heavily invested...but with stop points in individual stocks.
Finally, one does not need market timing to be a successful investor. Diversification and asset allocation with occasional re-balancing should show good results over the longer term.
Anyway, that's the way I see it. Ivory tower folks obviously disagree.
Well sure wish I'd done what I thought I should do yesterday: buy SSO, FAS or TQQQ. :)
Is this a top or is it going to mid-1400 like Brinker is predicting?
From Schwab morning email alert:
"First look at 3Q GDP matches forecasts, while jobless claims are slightly above forecasts
The first read of 3Q Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of economic output, showed a rate of expansion that matched expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, rising at a 2.5% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) annualized rate of growth, compared to the 1.3% increase in 2Q. However, personal consumption was above expectations, gaining 2.4%, nicely up from the 0.7% that was posted in 2Q, and compared to the 1.9% growth that was forecasted.
The GDP Price Index rose 2.5%, compared to the 2.4% increase that economists anticipated, but the core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.1%, versus the 2.2% rise that was expected.
Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims dipped by 2,000 to 402,000 last week, after the previous week's figure was upwardly revised by 1,000 to 404,000, but slightly above the 401,000 level that economists had expected. Also, the four-week moving average, considered a smoother look at the trend in claims, rose by 1,750 to 405,500, while continuing claims fell by 96,000 to 3,645,000, below the forecast of economists, which called for a 3,700,000 reading.
Treasuries remain lower in morning action following the data and the rally in the equity markets, with the yield on the 2-year note up 1 bp to 0.29%, while the yields on the 10-year note and the 30-year bond are gaining 8 bps to 2.29% and 3.30%, respectively.
Later this morning, the US economic calendar will yield the release of pending home sales, and the gauge of the pipeline of existing home sales is expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) in September, after falling 1.2% in August."
Here's a real tear-jerker for you -- NOT!
Poor Bernie Madoff tried to kill himself and has "bad dreams."
This scumbag scammer gets pschiatric treatment at taxpayer's expense, while he feels sorry for himself.
"Madoff seems to have fewer worries about the victims of his massive fraud.
"I understand why clients hate me," he said. "The gravy train is over. I can live with that.
"The average person thinks I robbed widows and orphans," he added. "I made wealthy people wealthier."
(SNIP)
A prison psychologist, with whom Madoff spends significant amounts of time, has told him he has been able to cope with his problems over the years by "compartmentalizing" them, and he still does, he added.
"This young woman has kept me alive," he said.
Even so, he finds it hard to sleep and some of his dreams are "horrible."
Read more and video
If the last small 8-9 day consolidation in the Dow in the 11,500 area can be considered a "flag", then since flags fly at half mast, the projection would indicate a rise to about 12,500.
Resistance from the small double top formed in August should put a crimp on the rally, at least for awhile. I plan to put on a large hedge at that point if the market is still overbought at that level.
"Timing works just fine for the rest of us who use a modest kit of TA tools....It has worked fine for Sy Harding's "Seasons in the Sun"....It has worked for IBD followers of CANSLIM."
Thanks Dan, I always listen to those who can do it.
Sometimes it works for Brinker and sometimes he misses one but it looks like that last call was spot on. Overall he's been pretty darn good I think.
Areli3
"The GDP Price Index rose 2.5%, compared to the 2.4% increase that economists anticipated, but the core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.1%, versus the 2.2% rise that was expected."
Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders said not to pay any attention to ECRIs recession prediction. It's looking more and more like she is right and ECRI is wrong.
Omaha
Yep, Areli3. He did call this last bottom very well. Some gripe because there has been no sell signal preceeding this "buy" call, and there's some truth to that.
But it's probably quite helpful (when he's right!) for those who are looking for a good time to re-balance their allocations back to target levels by selling fixed income and buying equities.
Honey said:
Is this a top or is it going to mid-1400 like Brinker is predicting?
Knowing how bullish Bob Brinker is,I predict he will soon raise his 2012 outlook for the S&P.
Dan,
Thanks for your market and TA updates. As you can see, we all enjoy them.
Jim,
Hmmm....I hadn't considered that possibility, but it makes sense.
Bob Brinker has now extended the time frame from "2011" out to "in 2012," so if we hit it here in 2011, we he say "we were right before we were wrong." LOL!!!
Frankj --
Let me add my thanks to Dan.
TA has its own unique jargon. That's OK, part of "lifelong learning" I guess. I am going to look at a tutorial available to try and understand some of the stuff associated with patterns.
two next stock market "worries" for the bears to growl about... Italy and the US debt solution to prevent automatic cuts which was part of the last debt ceiling deal...
buy low sell high :)
Leveraged ETFs are the worst investment ever
Commentary: Individuals shouldn’t hold product designed for a day.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leveraged-etfs-are-the-worst-investment-ever-2011-10-28?pagenumber=1
tradedog
BUY Signal generated today
As of the close of the market today, the PI model has reversed and generated a BUY signal. This is due to the GDP for the 3rd quarter coming in today at 2.5% (vs 1.3% for the 2nd quarter), and the LTTS moving back to a positive value. This means that all 5 indicators are positive as is the LTTS signal.
Accordingly, we will return to a fully invested position as of tomorrow October 18, 2011.
"Fully Invested" means a balance between equities and fixed income that is proportionate to your age. The formula I prefer is that the equity% should be 100 - your age (rounded down). So if you are 43 you should have 60% equities, 40% fixed income. A 67 year old should have 40% equities and 60% fixed income.
If you are ultraconservative, I would round up your age before applying the formula.
Regards,
Sanjoy
Sanjoy,
Thank you for your comments, but please do me a favor and don't use acronyms unless they are so simple that an unsophisticated person like myself can understand them.
LTTS: Long Term Technical Something-or-Other ...
Like I said, lots of jargon.
--Frankj
I think the hit was Johnny Ray . ELVIS now there's a ........guy that was all in at the TOP!! so the markets back we're still down from 2007 HERE's one for bob YOU AIN'T NOTHING but A HOUND DOG!!!!
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