Earlier this year on Moneytalk, Bob Brinker was regularly announcing the S&P 500 Index year-to-date returns. Bob Brinker has not been on the air for the past two Sundays, so it will be interesting to hear what he will say about the fact that the S&P is now down for the year, and 175 points below the April 29th high.
Marketimer, January 5, 2011, Bob Brinker said: "....our new S&P 500 target range in the mid-to-upper 1300's zone for this year......Given our view that the S&P 500 Index is on track to rise to the mid-to-upper 1300's range this year, all of our stock market model portfolios remain fully invested."Of course, the inference is that if he was not projecting the (relatively) high S&P target range, the model portfolios might not remain fully invested. That is almost certainly not true since the portfolios have been fully invested since March 2003 -- riding the S&P roller-coaster all the way from 800 to 1565 in October 2007, then all the way back down to 677 in March 2009.
Now without making any cash reserve changes whatsoever, Brinker has re-set his market-timing clock -- ignoring all that happened over the past three years.
Even with a clock-reset, Brinker's model portfolios are again down for this year:
December 31, 2010: Marketimer model portfolio I = $278,330
August 31, 2011.........Marketimer model portfolio I = $268,000
December 31, 2010: Marketimer model portfolio II = $230,317
August 31, 2011.........Marketimer model portfolio II: $220,890
I have been asked to explain the connection between Bob Brinker's message boards (Brinker Jr was the webmaster), and Kirk Lindstrom's Suite 101 message boards. Neither message board exists anymore, but the history is very interesting to anyone who wants to know more about what makes the man behind the microphone tick. When deciding whether or not to trust Brinker, it is helpful to be educated about how he operates behind the scenes.
Like almost everyone that ended up on Kirk's Suite 101 forums, Kirk was once a fan of Brinker's. That was until Brinker tried to bully Kirk into removing a message posted on his Suite101 forums. Brinker complained about a post by Jack Swanson regarding Brinker's inside relationship with UTEK.
Brinker said the post was "slanderous lies" and demanded that Kirk censor it. Kirk told Brinker that if he could show that the post was not true, then he would censor the post.
As it turns out, it was indeed proved that Brinker did have an inside connection to UTEK through his BJGroup. He admitted it on Nightly Business Report when Paul Kangas asked him if the relationship was a "conflict of interest." Brinker said no -- but the facts speak for themselves.
Here is one of Brinker's posts to Kirk about the subject:
To:Kirk who wrote (8133)So that was when the two Brinkers (in essence) declared war on "Suite 101ers." They refused to allow links to Kirk's message boards and started banning people for no reason if they were connected to Suite101 in any way. Here are a few people relating what they experienced at the Bob Brinker's message boards (now just a website).
From: mister topes Thursday, Oct 1, 1998 9:59 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 20905
If you had any question regarding the slanderous lies posted
on your board you could have called the company and asked
the questions. You would be told there has never ever been
any stock option granted and never any market making done
in the stock. Then you could post this on your board and
set the record straight. But instead people come to your
board and read slanderous lies. This is wrong.
You should never promote your board on the Brinker website
again as it is only an invitation to read slanderous lies
in a smear and hate campaign by Swanson. Do not take my word
for this, call the company and learn for yourself first hand
of these slanderous lies.
[You need to know that if I had not saved these to my personal files they would all have been gone forever, like so much of Brinker's history. After Kirk left Suite 101, they vaporized everything about Bob Brinker -- literally tens of thousands of posts. Was Suite 101 pressured? You bet! I was personally told that my account would be terminated if I even mentioned Brinker again. That is when I began my first blog. Now the pressure comes in other forms, but it is always there.]
Suite101, Testimonial Thread for “Refugees” who got “Booted From Brinkerdom."
30. Jul 30, 2000 10:48 PM » JenL_2 - Send us your sick, your homeless, your weary and your poor.
Send us your sick, your homeless, your weary and your poor. Suite101 has become the ultimate refuge for Stage IV Brinkerbots who were kicked off of bobbrinker.com for any number of reasons. I thought we should start a tally of the number of people who were given daBoot by daBrink and wound up posting over here. I will start the BFB List. Simply give your name or alias and the reason for the boot. Booted From Brinkerdom.
1). Jonathon. This goes back some months when Rande all of sudden stop posting. I simply typed in what happened to Rande Spiegelman and ZAP! My post was gone. I tried it one more time, and ZAP! I was gone. Subsequent attempts to log onto bobbrinker.com were for naught. I wound up here, scared and afraid. Anyone else out there like me?
2) Thruhiker. "Where's Rande?" followed by a brief reference to the Saturday Night Massacre.
3) (Honey) Delxx_x. I was kicked off because I posted on THIS site how I believe the censorship on the BB site is contemptible!
4) UTEK Thread Hello, My name is Ultra and I am a "tech Stepper" It has been 1 year, 47 days and 12 minutes since my name was last mentioned, and not immediately deleted, on the brinker.bot site. Can you imagine what that site would be like if they could start their own threads without JR/SR's approval? Someone might actually start another UTEK thread and I'd fall off the wagon for sure!
5) Steve T. For linking to Ask Rande on Suite101
6) David K. Someone told me that you can't type in the word "Korn" without getting the boot. I guess Bob doesn't like that new hardcore grunge band known as KORN.
7) Phish. me too. I was booted a while back when it wasn't so easy, even before Rande. I posted s u i t e 1 0 1 . c o m and got a warning, but the boot came when I called jr a chickens___! I used a $ for the s, but that was the proverbial straw. The whole situation is hilarious. Bob is gonna self destruct as his image morphs from astute advisor to greedy bitter old prune. I wouldn't be surprised if this is his last year on the radio. Perhaps he's smart enough to get out before it deteriorates into a bigger farce than it already has become. Sad situation - it could have been very different. -Randy
8) Karin. The Reason.....Here is the reason I got kicked out permanently: (link) ( my home-page had the S101 link in it!!!) Karin
9) Wendell. BOOTED. Well, for a simple old fence sitter, I have gotten the boot from both the discussion site and chat room. I was reading the messages at BB.com and someone asked about that "other" site. Well, being such a nice guy I thought I would slip one in. I wrote, please go to: sweetoneohonedotcom and that should get you there. Soon after I joined the land of the banishees. Can't remember what I said in the chat room before Mak gave me the old heave ho. Woe is me. I feel so terrible not being able to post and chat with that elite circle. Wendell D. Semore
10) Will_L. I was a very bad boy and typed exactly what I saw happening in the market vs Brinker's call. I happened to also mention his omissions of things happening in the market. It was a very bad combination. I'm sure the devil made me do it.
11) Steven_Russell. I killed the Town Hall. Great thread. It would be nice if we could re-arrange them in order, with near dates of banishment. Steven Russell here. I killed Town Hall. My post on Town Hall, June 23 2000, 4:09 am, listed and explained the relevant chronological remaining Town Hall posts, by number and time, which were real-time responses to the Will Lxxxxx Imposter, and to the Real Will's immediate subsequent banishment. I also explained how to substitute the Win95 Edit Find function for the earlier-assassinated Search Tool. My post ended with, "This post will self-destruct in 5 seconds." (Kirk said "Not here it won't", and re-posted it here right away, at 6:51 am, on the Brinker Free thread) My original post lasted on Town Hall about another 2 hours, before Town Hall itself was taken out and shot, after the responses that my post generated provoked a wave of new Brinker banishments that morning.
Steven Russell part 2. Banished and purged Monday, June 26, 2000. After the Town Hall execution, I lasted another couple days on other threads, with some moderate continuing respectful criticism of the Brinkers' banishment tactics. I think the final straw was when I posted that the Brinkers were showing great disrespect for the entire community of posters by their overzealous censorship.
12) Suite101.com. Jen here - I used to read BB.com discussion everyday and if there were questions that could be answered by information already posted at Suite 101 I would post a link to the Suite 101 thread or message. I'd also follow up with an email and send along an invitation to join in the discussion at Suite 101. I was always polite and got many Thank you notes from BB.com members. The purpose was never to "steal" members away from BB.com but to share like sites with like-minded people. But the Brinkers apparently took it as "promotion of a competing site" and blocked all links to Suite101.com without warning sometime around June '99......Jen
13) Jack Swanson here... I got kicked off the Brinker site for...well...for just being Jack Swanson!! Jack jackswanson00@yahoo.com
14) martin_lowe - I got booted twice... from my home ISP as "Martin Lowe," for criticizing the Brinkers for the censorship. Also on my work ISP I had set up an alias, "Bobby Charlton," the England soccer great from world cup '66. In response to a poster as to where Will and Russell had vanished, I posted to "They have gone to Cyberheaven and have be re-born to a site of higher conscious." Martin
15) matttheduck - i wasn't fired, i quit! i quit posting/visiting the brinker site when rande got the boot. outrageous
16) Chris3 - I Quit, Too Like Matttheduck, I quit when Rande got booted. I posted a defense of Rande (name: Chris Fleur) immediately after the booting, about the same time Karin did (at least, I thought she was "our" Karin), and it amazingly stayed there (wouldn't happen now, and I don't know if it is still there. Don't even go back to see what's going on. Who cares? I had very much respected Bob and his investing education advice for years. My eyes were opened that day. I continue to be amazed at what I hear coming out of his mouth on the radio when I listen (I'm not even a little bit as faithful of a listener as I was before), and also amazed at what I read here that is going on over there. I am so disappointed in the man behind the curtain!!!!
17) Kirk (Kirk Lindstrom) - I Quit too! Jr told me via email that it was OK for Jen to keep posting links to our site. He also said that the link to us was accidentally deleted and he would put it back. Both were lies as two hours after the email he had his site deforming Jen's links changing "suite101.com" to just "suite101" and so they would fail. I stopped posting there as I don't like to support people that have been proven to "make alterations to the truth".
Business wise, it is great to point out the snakeoil mixed with the good advice Brinker dispenses. He has mostly good stuff to say so it is hard to detect the snakeoil and so I feel we do a service pointing the snakeoil out. Even better that the "Buzz" this creates makes our site fun rather than just educational. Of course, he hates us as we point out the snakeoil he is selling which makes it less attractive. Kirk Lindstrom - Editor: Investing and Personal Finance
18) Dave_K (David Kimball) - I Quit Also. Had listened to Bob for a long long time. His treatment of some callers was beginning to wear on me. Plus the fact that the education value had seemed to reach a plateau. Used to visit the BB site occasionally to see how informative it might be. Ironically began to see a new level of education coming from posts of people like Rande and Kirk. Visited site more often just to pick out their posts and learn something more advanced. They suffered an undue amount of criticism from good advice/comments even then. Their banning left no attraction to that site. Haven't lurked over there in several months. In addition, the effects of Bob's January call on my portfolio has reduced his credibility. His advice ranks pretty far down below a lot of notable market analysts and commentators these days. I still listen to the radio program when convenient but don't go out of my way to plan around it like I used to.
19) oneputt - me too -1st time was a long time ago, I might have been one of the first. I thought it odd that he would play a taped show and not identify it as one. I posted "Why would he decieve.....". After that I could not log on. I got a new name and password and then was kicked off for finally having enough of poobutt. I asked him bluntly why he intentionally lies when talking about this site. I no longer even read the posts over there. That site is banished from my browser's list.
Top 31. Jul 31, 2000 11:26 AM » Will_L - Much Better Off Like many who dropped by BB's site to find out what was up with the January sell signal, I found myself soon in the middle of a firestorm. Although not sucking up and asking very pointed questions, I treated everyone there with at least more respect than accorded me. After a while I became not just concerned about the wisdom of his call but rather seeing a side of Brinker that I didn't know existed. I began to suspect his motives in many of the things he was saying on the radio and doing on his website. My respect for someone I thought to be a straight shooter albeit an egotistical one eroded. His shinnanigans around his website in trying to smear the reputation of those who disagree with him including falsly posting or allowing others to do so without interference under their name and taking on aliases to attack and generally be a jerk on his own thread certainly demonstrated to me he was neither a straight shooter or someone I would trust at all. As such I was excluded from the site--along with about anyone who has disagreed with him. The way it happened I did object to. The fact that it happened, I really am thankful for. I wish I would have left a little sooner and just posted here. In some respects it is not right once you are no longer just differing on his market calls but think that he is quite the snakeoil salesman that I came to believe to post on his site. Although he pounces on posters, callers and other analysts who have the gall to disagree with him, he has the thinnist skin I have ever seen for someone in his role. So it is just better to talk about him and his calls --just like he loves to do others in the freedom that an environment like this offers. It's much better all the way around.
It was an amazing saga that lasted several years, and would have made an interesting book. It was about 2003 that I first began writing summaries of Moneytalk and trying to provide an educational record of the shenanigans of the velvet-voiced "Emperor" with no-clothes on national radio.
61 comments:
It seems to me that Mr. Topes doesn't understand the distinction between libel and slander.
"Two torts that involve the communication of false information about a person, a group, or an entity such as a corporation. Libel is any Defamation that can be seen, such as a writing, printing, effigy, movie, or statue. Slander is any defamation that is spoken and heard."
Thanks for your post. Its hard to rationalized all the ups and downs of the markets. I dont like how Brinker screens calls it is not obvious and it is deceiving. Though Im sure to a certain extent you have to deal with certain posts that are in poor taste.
NEW TOPIC: What Happened Between the Bob Brinker Message Boards and Kirk Lindstrom's?
With all that's happening in the market today and the political battles going on that will impact all of our lives, I can't believe that many readers are really that interested in what happened to a couple of long defunct message boards.
Wake me up when something more timely comes around.
JGD39....I guess you missed the first part of my article where I gave you up-to-the-minute Bob Brinker market news.
If you aren't interested in a bit of history, just scroll past it. Some others wanted to know about how Kirk's Suite101 and Brinker's message boards were connected. Sorry if the story bored you.
That said, feel free to say whatever you want about the markets or "political battles."
Frankly, I found Obama's speech last night just repetition of what he's been saying for years now. More government spending, more taxes.
If he'd get his boot off the throats of small business and the true job-creators, things would change. He isn't going to do that.
He honestly told us he wanted to "fundamentally change" the United States of America and so far, he has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams.
He's on track to increase the national debt more than all other presidents in US history.
Jeffchristie: "....involve the communication of false information...."
Thanks Jeff....The critical word there is FALSE! It is not slander if it is true.
Investor....The Brinkers use any form of censorship that they possibly can to control what information about their financial advise is available to potential subscribers.
That is the only way that Bob Brinker can maintain his "market-timing" schtick.
Evidently, they make so much money that they can afford to refuse to sell their newsletter to anyone that they discover writes anything critical about them.
There have been many (on message boards) who, when the Brinker's discovered their real names, have had their subscriptions cancelled.
As I've said before, Jr has "blocked" me from "following" him on Twitter. And he has refused to sell me his newsletter.
As for posts I receive that are in "poor taste," yep, and that is the understatement of the century. :)
The USPS will deliver a small box across the country in just two days for $5.20 and a bigger box for about $10. It is a great deal if you don't mind the wait at the post office. I think their problem is pensions much like GM had. I'd like to see them moved to Social Security like most private sector workers so they can price the product without pension distortions. Also, how much are delivery carriers paid? Only requirement is they know how to drive and can read... Don't need a GED for that.
JGD39 said... With all that's happening in the market today
Ain't it just grand to be FULLY 101% TOTALLY INVESTED per Bob Brinker's advice right now JGD? I don't think NOONE could make this stuff up!
Wake me up when something more timely comes around.
Not a chance. You make much more sense to us when you are fully asleep. HTH.
Thanks for the info Honey.
tfb - who requested the history
Investors were apparently not impressed by the "jobs speech" last night. Surprise!
I was not expecting much so kept SDS overnight and added a bit more today. Have a stop in that will save the bulk of my profits, which are substantial with the market in the toilet by over 300 points.
Obama just can't bring himself to do what might actually work. That is, reduce corporate taxes to 25%. He'd rather keep on doing what hasn't worked and won't work. He'll never learn!
There is probably more profit to be had in SDS, but once again I don't want to go into the weekend with a big position in this ultra-volatile market. So out it went for close to a $2,000 profit! Steak tonight!
- Dan G
Honeybee said...
[That said, feel free to say whatever you want about the markets or "political battles."]
I bring to your attention, for all those that might be interested: An article by Travis Hoium. I think he is an analyst of the solar industry, and for the most part, I believe he is a bull on Solar.
His article:
This Week in Solar/ By Travis Hoium /http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/09/this-week-in-solar.asp
September 9, 2011
A single quote from that article: ----------------------------
[In last night's jobs speech, President Obama mentioned the words "green," "solar," and "renewable" a combined zero times.]
submitted by:CDB
Congrats DAN!! great call on the current market.. where can I buy your newsletter?
"I'd like to see them moved to Social Security like most private sector workers so they can price the product without pension distortions. Also, how much are delivery carriers paid? Only requirement is they know how to drive and can read... Don't need a GED for that."
I am getting a little tired of people complaining about Postal Service and Government workers retirement benefits.
The system has changed drastically and most employees now are covered by Social Security and their 401(k) savings account.
People who think that postal workers have a gravy train should try it for a while before they shoot off their mouth.
Retirement
The Postal Service retirement system was significantly changed for individuals hired after January 1, 1984. Social Security is withheld and a new employee contribution system is fashioned after a 401k defined contribution plan. You can elect to contribute into a THRIFT savings 401k plan. The government will match your contribution up to 5 percent. This is effectively a 5 percent pay increase. Your contributions are tax deferred and reduce your taxable income by the amount contributed. The retirement benefit is determined by the amount that has accumulated during the employee’s career. This includes the interest earned and capital gains realized from the retirement fund.
Here you go:
The reality of Obama
tfb
I am getting a little tired of people complaining about Postal Service and Government workers retirement benefits.
So then the issue is sheer incompetence and their bloated salaries?
tfb
Well, with the FBI raiding Solyndra's offices a few days ago, I wouldn't have mentioned solar, green energy or anything like it either!
-- Frankj
People who think that postal workers have a gravy train should try it for a while before they shoot off their mouth.
I sent my reply to you via First Class Mail. I hope you get it before I die of old age.
As for trying it, I take a leisurely walk every day in the sun for a few hours, smile at people, and do nothing else, but I don't get paid for doing that. How do I get hired?
"I sent my reply to you via First Class Mail. I hope you get it before I die of old age"
I hope it gets lost!
Response to Frankj, 3:40PM
Thanks Frankj: I didn’t know such a raid had happened. I had to search for the information.
One article mentioned Energy Department Inspector General Gregory Friedman. He has called the department's clean-energy loan program lacking in "transparency and accountability.
I have to wonder, how many rats are hiding in the wood work? I have to wonder, are any prominent California Senators involved? I have to wonder, with the FBI’s quick response (never seen one so quick) who are they working for? I hope they still work for the common citizens of this country.
CDB
"where can I buy your newsletter?"
Ha! The minute I started selling a newsletter my luck would change and I'd start getting death threats! No thanks!
Does that mean if the stock market finishes the year lower than today,
Mr B's one year portfolio performance results will mysteriously disappear from the "homepage"?
Once again?
Is there any significance to the name Mr. Topes? For instance, in the scifi parody, Spaceballs, Mel Brooks played Pres. Skroob, which I only recently found out is Brooks backwards. Is Topes some literary allusion? Thanks. Long time reader. Love the blog.
Dr. Reknirb
FrankJ...Like CDB, I did not know about the FBI raid of Solyndra until your post. I found this write-up from just before Obama's speech last night. They nailed it, Obama said NADA about Solyndra.
Barack Obama plans on talking about using stimulus funds for job creation tonight. Think he’ll mention Solyndra, which his administration fast-tracked to $535 million in taxpayer-financed loan guarantees? Naaaah:
FBI agents armed with search warrants descended this morning on bankrupt solar company Solynrda this morning.
The investigation comes after a request by the Department of Energy’s inspector general, FBI spokesman Peter Lee told NBC Bay Area News.
Agents arrived at 7a.m. and are examining the factory. Solynrda has a skeleton crew of 100 workers on the scene, closing the factory down. A CNBC photographer on the scene says the FBI has promised a press conference. An agency spokesperson at its San Francisco headquarters says he’s unaware of any such plans.
Just to remind everyone, Obama touted Solyndra as an example of what government subsidies to green-tech firms could do for the economy and job creation. So far, it’s managed to make $535 million disappear from the economy and took 1000 jobs with it. As ABC reported yesterday, taxpayers are actually behind the company’s main investor, George Kaiser, in recouping the losses. Coincidentally, Kaiser was a big bundler for Obama in 2008.
And coincidentally, his company made a lot of visits to the White House over a two-year period while getting the taxpayer subsidies, too (via Zombie at PJ Tatler):
Not only does the now-bankrupt solar energy firm Solyndra have a cozy financial relationship with the Obama administration, company representatives also made numerous visits to the White House to meet with administration officials, The Daily Caller has learned.
According to White House visitor logs, between March 12, 2009, and April 14, 2011, Solyndra officials and investors made no fewer than 20 trips to the West Wing. In the week before the administration awarded Solyndra with the first-ever alternative energy loan guarantee on March 20, four separate visits were logged.....
Continued next post....
Continued from above:
George Kaiser, who has in the past been labeled a major Solyndra investor as well as a Obama donor, made three visits to the White House on March 12, 2009, and one on March 13. Kaiser has denied any direct involvement in the Solyndra deal and through a statement from his foundation said he “did not participate in any discussions with the U.S. government regarding the loan.”
But the countless meetings at the White House seem hardly coincidental. Kaiser, in fact, is responsible for 16 of the 20 meetings that showed up on the White House logs.
Now we have the FBI raiding Obama’s pet green-tech company at the behest of a DoE Inspector General. This of course prompts the question of when this IG gets the Gerald Walpin treatment.
With Obama about to make a case for even more government intervention and manipulation in markets, this raid couldn’t have come at a worse moment for the administration. If this raid turns up any official corruption, though, this moment will look like a Sunday afternoon on a Martha’s Vineyard golf course by comparison.
Update: Oh, by the way, this was Solyndra’s gratitude for getting over a half-billion dollars in taxpayer subsidies:
The chief financial officer of bankrupt start-up Solyndra, which had ramped up its operations after getting a U.S. government loan for solar companies, declined to say on Wednesday if potential buyers would keep its business in the United States. Under questioning at a bankruptcy court hearing by a U.S. government attorney, CFO W.G. Stover declined to identify either of the two companies that have shown an interest in Solyndra’s operations or even where they were based. Asked if the potential buyers might move Solyndra’s unique solar cylinder business overseas, Stover would only say that doing so would increase the cost to a potential buyer.
Feeling the love yet?
Update II: Getting some of this in the comments:
Isn’t Holder in charge of the FBI? He will shut down the investigation and conduct a DOJ investigaton of his own in 5.4.3…
FBI Raids Solyndra
CDB said: "I have to wonder, are any prominent California Senators involved? I have to wonder, with the FBI’s quick response (never seen one so quick) who are they working for? I hope they still work for the common citizens of this country."
Outstanding questions! We know that the two California Senators are in the tank for Obama and will never rat on him. (Diane Feinstein, who may die from old-age in office, and Babs (don't call me ma'am) Boxer.
We also know that Eric Holder is about as crooked as a dog's hind tail.
Not too much there to inspire confidence, is there?
Birdbrain asked: "Does that mean if the stock market finishes the year lower than today, Mr B's one year portfolio performance results will mysteriously disappear from the "homepage"?
Once again?"
Well, Birdbrain, we know that he got away with it in 2008.
If I recall correctly, three years was the shortest time-span that he reported model portfolio results on his website at the end of 2008.
Then amazingly, when the market turned around beginning in April 2009, he started publishing his year-to-date numbers. How clever! LOL!
Then in July, 2009, he started bragging about predicting that 2009 would be a good year.
It would be funny if we didn't know that he decieves people into sending him money by using these kinds of tactics.
DanG said: "So out it went for close to a $2,000 profit! Steak tonight!"
Woohoo! Congratulations Dan! Nice trading.
Have you ever traded VIX?
You're welcome, TFB...If you have more questions, I'll sure try to find the answers for you.
I actually enjoyed the walk down memory lane.
Someone asked DanG if they could buy his newsletter.
I've been trying for years -- no luck.
So it's best just enjoy his freebie tips and be happy. :)
HB asked, "Have you ever traded VIX?"
Actually I haven't. I would not know how, to tell you the truth.
I really prefer stocks and indexes or their ETFs. They have trends, earnings, and some blue chips even pay big dividends, which I love...but only in a real bull market.
In a market like this, you just have to "hit and run". There's no real trend...yet. But it will come. And when it does, I do think it will be to the downside.
Mr Pig said: "Ain't it just grand to be FULLY 101% TOTALLY INVESTED per Bob Brinker's advice right now JGD? I don't think NOONE could make this stuff up!"
I wonder what Caller-David is thinking now. He asked Bob Brinker if it was a good time to move out of stocks and into bonds.
Here is Brinker bragging about how he answered David. This is from my July 31st summary:
Brinker said: "Remember we had a caller when the market was at 1268 at the end of June who asked whether he should sell out of the market because of the debt ceiling debate......Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level."
Brinker continued: "And certainly we've seen some nice dollar-cost-average opportunities this past week in the market. I must admit on Friday I was taking advantage of some of the bargains that were out there with the market in the 1200's....."
Dr Reknirb asked if there is any significance to "mistertopes."
Well, Dr....the original handle that Bob Brinker used to post "anonymously" on SI was "Don Lane."
Now I can only speculate, but there was a real Don Lane who, according to Wikipedia:
"Don Lane (November 13, 1933 – October 22, 2009),[1] born Morton Donald Isaacson, was an American-born talk show host and singer. Don Lane is best known for hosting The Don Lane Show which was aired on The Nine Network in Australia from 1975 to 1983."
Now what happened is that after the truth of his identity was being discussed on Suite 101 regarding how he was touting UTEK with an anonymous alias while having a fee-based relationship with the company, the handle "Don Lane" was changed to "mistertopes."
I could only guess at what it stands for. In Mexico "topes" are giant speed bumps.
Anonymous/September 9, 2011 7:34 PM
Dr. Reknirb, you're funny.
CDB
One more point about Silicon Investor: When a handle is changed, all posts made with the former handle are also changed to the new handle.
So there are many posts responding to mistertopes, where the writer addresses him as "Don."
Ahh! There are many, but only one is MOABO! Ahh!
Dollar cost averaging "opportunities"? That makes no sense at all! If you are truly DCAing, there are no DCA "opportunities".
There are just times of the month or year that you stoically plunk in a certain amount of money regardless of where the market is or what it is doing.
It allows you to obtain the "harmonic mean", which is always below the arithmetic mean. And it works as long as the market eventually goes up...which it always has.
Sometimes dear old Bob lets his mouth wander without filtering what he's thinking through his brain. I guess we all do that occasionally, but certainly not on the air!
"It seems to me that Mr. Topes doesn't understand the distinction between libel and slander."
I think he knew but found threats worked with most.
The most damaging thing to any shady operation is the truth so sticking to the truth is ALWAYS safe.... and causes the most discomfort to those unhappy with what it shows.
Speaking of truth....
2011 Intraday "Correction" Statistics 09/09/11
S&P500 Chart
Last Market High 05/02/11 at 1,370.58
Last Market low 08/08/11 at 1,119.28
Current S&P500 Price 1,154.23
Decline in Points = 216.35
Decline in percent = 15.8%
Max Decline = 18.3%
=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 18.3% and we are currently 15.8% off the peak.
=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 17.9%
.
Today QQQ is $53.18 which is down 39.5% from $87.87, the highest QQQ was while Brinker was recommending it for up to 50% of cash reserves.
You can see an actual copy of the special bulletin advising purchase of the NASDAQ100 via QQQ HERE.
How would it have affected model portfolios? Glad you asked. Affect of Bob Brinker's QQQQ advice on his Reported Model Portfolio Returns
Truth... best shark repellent ever!
Good news, why not just let the recession and bear market come? Get it over with. It's supposed to last 10 years or more so all those politicians can take the blame. Screw them all.
Prepare for a Recession and Bear Market!
By Sy Harding09/09/2011
Brace yourself for a recession.
Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out.
Stock markets around the world also seem to be doing so. In anticipation of economic slowdowns that won’t slide all the way into recessions, stock markets normally decline only into corrections (declines of less than 20%). But they plunge into bear markets when recessions loom.
And global stock markets outside of the U.S. are already in full-fledged bear markets. That includes 10 of the world’s 12 largest economies, the exceptions being only the U.S. and Canada.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/sy-harding/2011/09/09/prepare-for-a-recession-and-bear-market
Kirk said: "The most damaging thing to any shady operation is the truth so sticking to the truth is ALWAYS safe.... and causes the most discomfort to those unhappy with what it shows."
For many years before the internet message boards became available, Bob Brinker never had to worry about the truth of his "shady operation" being questioned.
As we know, he has about 99% control over what gets on the air during Moneytalk.
And as we also know, in each new issue of Marketimer, Brinker never addresses the blunders from previous issues of Marketimer.
At the time of the QQQ-fiasco, Brinker stopped allowing libraries to carry Marketimer. And he carefully controls the "free" issue that he makes available.
All that explains why this blog is such a thorn in the Brinker's side. It's an honest record of his snake oil.
At the same time, I always have said that he teaches great investing fundamentals. He inspired me to learn to be my own financial manager. I respect him for that.
That made it all the more a bitter pill to swallow when my eyes were opened to what a scam his "market-timing" schtick really is and how he deceptively covers it up.
Kirk,
Thank you for that great YTD info....I'm sure you won't mind if I post it on the front page.... :)
"I'm sure you won't mind if I post it on the front page.... :)"
Only if you correct my mistaken use of affect/effect. :)
You can see an actual copy of the special bulletin advising purchase of the NASDAQ100 via QQQ HERE.
How would purchase of QQQs affect model portfolios? Glad you asked. Effect of Bob Brinker's QQQQ advice on his Reported Model Portfolio Returns
Proper use of Affect and Effect
"The arrow AFFECTED the aardvark. The EFFECT was eye-popping. "
Speaking of typos...
December 31, 2010: Marketimer model portfolio I = $230,317
August 31, 2011: Marketimer model portfolio II: $220,890
I believe that should be P2 in line #1
Considering the fact that the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA and the 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA, by all accounting this is a bear market...
How many of the buy-and-hopers are just stupidly going to ride it down AGAIN?
I hope they loose big time this time around. Stupid is stupid does.
Kirk,
Thanks for letting me know about the model portfolio typo....
I made the correction to affect/effect -- I THINK. LOL!
.
How many of the buy-and-hopers are just stupidly going to ride it down AGAIN?
I remember a BIG FAT DOPE that went by the name of BRINKERSHILL.
This guy rode the Buy-n-Hold elevator up and down, up and down so many times that the cable might have given out, and he fell on his pointy head.
He now uses the ID of ANON, and he learned some cute 4-letter words.
Yet IBD clings to their "confirmed uptrend" view, following the very late "follow through" day on Aug. 23.
They do admit, however, that a late follow through is more likely to fail than one that falls within the 4-7 day window following the first rally during a correction.
I'd say it's pretty close to failing now. But anything can happen over a weekend...and probably will! This is not a market to "buy and hold"...in my ever so humble opinion, of course!
Is Dan the only poster on this board who is out of the market, or better yet, short?
If you are all so much smarter than Brinker, why aren't you out of the market too?
Do you get some sort of perverted satisfaction by losing LESS than somebody else?
How many of the buy-and-hopers are just stupidly going to ride it down AGAIN?
I hope they loose big time this time around. Stupid is stupid does.
You don' have a loss till you sell, you still own x% of each and every company in your portfolio without respect to how the current market voyeurs believe things shoudl be valued. And guess what happens if everyone sells?
I don't personally care if someone tries and times the market nor do I care if someone buys and holds, but it is really strange to attack people who want to buy and hold.
It is equally strange to attack people who market time.
What you might attack is the theory but I fail to understand why you would care if someone held securities through a bear market or got out and side stepped one.
Why do you care? And why would you want them to lose, though once again by definition they cannot lose unless the markets never recover before they sell.
It seems to me the only person who would care would be a dishonest charlatan who makes his living selling a known tragically flawed market timing service. Now that I would take exception to because then someone is actually going out of their way to hurt others by hawking their BS that can not stand up to scrutiny.
But since no one on here is a douche who sells market timing services I don't think we need to worry now do we?
tfb
Is Dan the only poster on this board who is out of the market, or better yet, short?
NOOPE, and why the hell do YOU care what anybody else is doing?
If you are all so much smarter than Brinker, why aren't you out of the market too?
Not only am I outta the market, I'm outta the QQQQ, i"m outta TEFQX, I'm still in the Ginnie Mae's and I'm still in the TIPS.
According to you and brinker&brinker&hulbert, I MUST BE A F'N GENIUS!!!
Do you get some sort of perverted satisfaction by losing LESS than somebody else?
Do you 3 get some satisfaction outta LOSING money for your subscribers?
How's that Fixed Income fund that bought the Wellington stock market doing, Junior? Do you have ANY subscribers left, or are you going to start over again like daddy has done several times now?
I betcha daddy is proud of ya, ain't he?
Chip offa the old block, that's for sure............
(((ROAR)))
NOOBODY can make this crap up............NOOBODY at all...........NOOPE
But since no one on here is a douche who sells market timing services I don't think we need to worry now do we?
I'd like to be a douche that sells snake oil for $185 a crack. Do I need a license, or can I just pimp toilet paper on a Sunday radio show? (Go ahead, ANON, and send some filth on that softball)
I have a charlatan license, if that would help.
You don' have a loss till you sell...
That is one of the silliest bits of self-deception floating around out there.
Of course you have a loss the very minute the market value of your investment is lower than your cost basis.
Ever hear of a margin call? Oh no Mr. Broker there is no loss UNTIL I sell so I don't need to come up with more collateral.
No loss in QQQQ either...never sold a share and still have the certificates right here. Nope, no loss until I sell.
"Why do you care?....I don't really except for the bashers here who constantly bash Brinker as a market timer yet personally ride the bear market down and then cheerfully note that they aren't market timers so they are supposed to lose money.
So just hang on there tfb, if you never sell another thing you will NEVER AGAIN have a loss.
Sheeesh.
anonymous, really POed about something today, spews: "I don't really except for the bashers here who constantly bash Brinker as a market timer yet personally ride the bear market down and then cheerfully note that they aren't market timers so they are supposed to lose money."
That is a crock of bull, and I'm getting tired of the lies and spin. You're just chumming the blog with rotten red herrings because Bob Brinker's marketiming schtick is glowing bright red again.
There hasn't been anyone on this blog who has said they buy-and-hold or market time.
And certainly no one sells market-timing advice while being a buy-and-holder, except Bob Brinker. Hard to keep from laughing these days, isn't it? Or are you crying?
Keep the faith, RJB, maybe a miracle will happen and the market will bail Brinker out again. If not, he has that call screener tomorrow -- and next month, he can re-write the investment letter so that the past predictions don't show.
There hasn't been anyone on this blog who has said they buy-and-hold or market time.
Of course there are. Market timing meaning getting out of the market...not trading.
On that basis, Dan is a market timer while xxxx, the pig, tfb, jeffchristie and probably others would be characterized as buy-and-holders, not market timers.
[post edited by Honey]
On that basis, Dan is a market timer while xxxx, the pig, tfb, jeffchristie and probably others would be characterized as buy-and-holders, not market timers.
I'm not sure if your reading comprehension is higher than your IQ, or the same, in the low teens.
Have you ever considered night school or an internet course?
Of course you have a loss the very minute the market value of your investment is lower than your cost basis.
No you do not, and you would have to be a total idiot to believe so. I'll tell you what, why don't you try and claim a short term phantom loss on your tax returns based on an arbitrary day when you detected your "loss". I want to be there to see the IRS cart your stupid ass away.
BTW Warren Buffet wants to hear more abut this market timing stuff - LOL!!!
Ever hear of a margin call?
I sure have, ever heard of fool who buy on margin and GUESSes wrong when they TRY and TIME the market and get a margin call and lose their ass?
constantly bash Brinker as a market timer
The reason he is bashed is he absolutely and without any doubt sucks as a market timer. There is no mistake about it. His record proves beyond a doubt that he timing model does not work - becasue he failed.
So just hang on there tfb, if you never sell another thing you will NEVER AGAIN have a loss.
I never have had a loss period - there is no again - it has not occurred the first time.
Hey maybe you should also invest in real estate like your idiot hero did, how did that work out? LOL - not only can he not time the stock market but he can't time the real estate market either and bought into an obvious bubble in an overbuilt community!!!
tfb
BTW, I already admitted I market time. It is called asset allocation and it is supported by huge body of academic evidence unlike the Brinker type market timing which is supported by no relevant academic evidence and pretty much is the brunt of jokes by academics everywhere and people who understand basic mathematics.
And fortunately for me it works within my parameters of not selling as I normally have enough cash coming in each month that I can add where needed and keep my portfolio in balance.
Asset allocation with a rebalance is a form of market timing and I have mentioned this several times now. It is the theory I subscribe to and I don't have to pay some dishonest douche 185 a year to implement it. Best of all it yields superior results.
What I do not do is pretend that I can outsmart the markets and read the moss growing on a tree and calculate in the affect of spotted salamander and a crow flying north and crunch all that into a market timing model that will tell me when to get in and out of the market. And Brinker can't do it either which is why his market timer is a total failure. That is why he missed the bull run after Oct 1987, that is why he did not get out of the market in 200 and that is why he road the market down in 2008 and that is why he has sat through to 15%+ corrections this year.
tfb
I really enjoyed this interview. As I get older I feel a bit, shall we say, hopeful when I hear an octogenarian like Bogle speak with such soundness of mind. Interestingly he address that at the end of the interview. A lot of topics are covered in this, and I woudl simply say enjoy - we probably won't have him around much longer. It is nice to hear an honest assessment of the world around us from someone who is not selling snake-oil:
Bogle
tfb
Of course you have a loss the very minute the market value of your investment is lower than your cost basis.
"No you do not, and you would have to be a total idiot to believe so. I'll tell you what, why don't you try and claim a short term phantom loss on your tax returns based on an arbitrary day when you detected your "loss". I want to be there to see the IRS cart your stupid ass away." -tbf-
And I'll tell you what bunny, why don't you fill out a financial statement for a bank loan and list your way, way underwater securities and real estate at your COST numbers. Not today's market value.
The banker will toss you out of his office for not knowing how to make a financial statement.
Even the SBA people who will lend to deadbeats, won't talk to you bunny. Did you know that?
Market value is what counts.
5:44 - As I said go ahead and try and use your phantom loss on your taxes. You could also try and use the inflated value as an asset to obtain a loan and then wonder why you are in bankruptcy few years later.
You really sound like you do not understand the stockmarket is pricing mechanism that fluctuates a great deal. Most mature investors understand there are periods when your stocks will be overvalued and periods when they are undervalued. Once again Buffet has built a 50 Billion portfolio by understanding this.
You seem obsessed with some fictitious fairy who can tell you when they are overvalued so you can sell and when they are undervalued so you can buy. No such fairy exists except in the head of fools.
So go ahead and fret over phantom losses and glow over unrealized gains and believe in some omnipotent genie in a bottle that will save you, if only you rub the genie with a $185 a year.
LOL!!!! You are priceless.
tfb
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