Who was president when Bob Brinker last issued any kind of sell signal?
It happened in January 2000. Brinker sold 60% equities from his model portfolios, recommending the money be held in money market funds. (He raised another 5% cash in August 2000.) That was the last time that Brinker ever recommended selling equities and raising cash to buy back at lower prices.
So does that make Bob a buy-and-hold advocate? That depends on what your definition of is is....errrrr, sorry, that was someone else. But you guessed it -- it was President Bill Clinton.
Birdbrain said:
"In the April 1 2003 Kiplinger article:
(Bob) Brinker predicts market timing, in general, will be more valuable in the future. "The buy and hold days are over" he proclaims.
And what has been Mr B been doing in the over eight years since?
Altogether on three...1..2..3
BUYING AND HOLDING"I did a search for the article that Birdbrain wrote about. It's very interesting to see what Brinker said about buy-and-hold stock investing one month after he returned all 2000 cash reserves to fully invested.
Back then, Bob was touting his market-timing skills and riding high, but in 2007-2009, he missed the worst bear market since the Great Depression and rode it down fully invested. How ironic that during the ensuing eight years from 2003, he did exactly what he said "was over." Here are excepts from the 2003 Kiplinger article about market timing:
"While market timing has been in disrepute for many years, Brinker, who has been in the investment business 35 years, says that's only because of the long bull market. Brinker predicts market timing, in general, will be more valuable in the future. "The buy and hold days are over," he proclaims."Here are excepts from a 2009 Kiplinger article titled: "Can You Time the Market?"
"Newsletter editor and radio host Bob Brinker, for example, correctly called the market top in 2000 and turned bullish not long after the bottom in late 2002. But he didn't get out of the way of the 2007-09 bear market..."Brinker largely maintains his reputation as a market-timer (in spite of the fact that he has not changed his fully invested equity allocation in eight years) by repeatedly declaring stocks "attractive for purchase" at various levels. Like Bill Clinton, he sees a lot of attractive (market) bottoms, but hasn't got any cattle in his hat to take advantage of them... (Sorry for the mutilated metaphor.) :)
13 comments:
Sounds correct only one sell signal that I can remember. Now the question is the new buy signal will it work.? This has been been a very scary 8 weeks in the market. I can understand the buy call at this point since it is the low point of the recent trading ranges. But if this is the new normal Im feeling a little sick.
Jim said...
birdbrain said:
In the April 1 2003 Kiplinger article:
(Bob) Brinker predicts market timing, in general, will be more valuable in the future. "The buy and hold days are over" he proclaims.
And what has been Mr B been doing in the over eight years since?
Altogether on three...1..2..3
BUYING AND HOLDING
Thanks for showing us that great quote from Brinker in 2003. It reminds us how he does not practice what he preaches. Remember when the secular bear market began in 2000 he told us that buy and holders will become frustrated during secular bears because they won't make any money? He said only a marketimer such as himself will make money by being in the market during bull markets and go to cash during bear markets. He said he will go 100% cash if he expects a bear and might even go short if the opportunity arises.
So here we are 11 years later and as you said he has been a buy and holder for the last 8. If fact he has had at least a portion of his portfolio in the market all 11 years. Around 2005-06 he even became confused about whether or not we were in a secular bear.
We may find out as early as next week if Brinker's latest call has any merit. If anyone on Wall Street has heard of Bob Brinker and knows his views they will be in there buying the market on Monday morning.
September 30, 2011 8:45 PM
[post copied from prior thread]
I think BB calls carry alot more weight when he announced them on the radio. He doesn't do that anymore. I remember the last time he made a call on the radio was when he bought the QQQ's and was a little ahead and told listers to put a stop in, the QQQ's stopped out and went right back up. That was awful and I believe that was the end to the calls on the radio.
Investor,
I hate to disagree with you, but Bob Brinker DOES talk about his calls on the radio if they make him look good.
The only ones he doesn't talk about are the ones that make his market-timing look like the joke that it is.
For example: He bragged about his S&P 1030 call from July 2010 several times.
The problem is, most of them go sour on him, so he covers them up, both on Moneytalk and in Marketimer.
Investor said: "Now the question is the new buy signal will it work.?"
It's a crap-shoot, isn't it?
.
(Bob) Brinker predicts market timing, in general, will be more valuable in the future. "The buy and hold days are over" he proclaims.
I totally agree and if I ever met someone who could actually time the market successfully I would certainly follow their advice.
tfb
"if I ever met someone who could actually time the market successfully I would certainly follow their advice."
Well now WHO wouldn't follow somebody who could successfully time the market? In fact, there would be NO market because everybody would follow such a successful market timer.
But the truth is, you have to go with somebody who at least TRIES to time the market like Brinker does.
He sidestepped at least ONE bear market and that's better than ZERO.
Bobfan
He sidestepped at least ONE bear market and that's better than ZERO.
----
Then lost it in his all and more in counter trend Q call which is still underwater - 10 years later.
Joey
He sidestepped at least ONE bear market and that's better than ZERO.
HERE WE GO AGAIN.........BLAH BLAH BLAH........................BLAH.....BLAH
When are you going to answer the SIMPLE question on how a subscriber did following ALL of Brinkers advice since, and including the possible sidestep?
You do you always IGNORE this question? Are you AFRAID to answer it?
(Now here comes the name calling and dopey qqq stuff, AGAIN)
He sidestepped at least ONE bear market and that's better than ZERO.
Bobfan
That would be true if he hadn't sidestepped another bear market that wasn't there about 10 years earlier. He was forced to reenter the market at a higher level.
The last calls I remember are a "secular" bear" "that lasts at
least 8 years" and a "cyclical bull" within the secular bear that
I believe lasts 2 to 6 years. I
can't recall the dates of these calls. When the crash of 07-8
occured he said,"these events are
unprecedented." I further recall
his saying after the market rallied,"we haven't changed our position that the market will reach
new highs." I need assistance with
the dates of these calls.
get ready for recession if brinker says no we're gonna have one it's hard to make forcast on top of brinker mt. 4 yrs and counting since the top THANK"S BOOB
another great call from brinker mountain IT'S a bear!!!!! I think this guy is in the early stages of dementia. when is this guy gonna do some market timing?
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