Today, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk was spliced-together recorded calls from old programs. However, there was never an announcement saying it was pre-recorded. One has to wonder why not? It seems very deceptive....
IN EDIT: Some have questioned what I said above. My answer is this:
The spliced-together calls were from different programs. I was able to identify one that went back to 2009 -- that was the one where Brinker talked about the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Some were even earlier because Bernie Madoff was still one of the main topics for discussion.
Consider this: If it had been only the network involved in choosing what to broadcast as a re-run, they would simply have chosen an old program and run it in total.
All of the calls appeared to be carefully chosen, either by a Brinker or a Brinker-producer, to promote Marketimer.
The calls were obviously carefully selected because many callers said they were Marketimer subscribers, had been following Brinker's advice for many years, were worth $millions, and living in the Land of Critical Mass. LOL! Strangely, these callers needed to ask Brinker about inherited $millions, divorce settlements, inherited condos and other real estate, IRA's, muni bonds, and asset allocation.
The first call went way back to the infamous Bernie Madoff days. One of the calls was from 2009 when Brinker had talked about watching the Pennsylvania Turnpike being built.
Since Brinker chose to include a couple of calls about asset allocation, let's take this opportunity to review the complete record of his stock market-cash asset-allocations back to 1982. This data was compiled and first documented several years ago at the Suite 101 Brinker discussion forums.
Pen-name Math Junkie wrote: “Some have raised questions about the allocation percentage from 1982 to 1987, so I have added a question mark to reflect this. As Steve did, I am retaining information from radio broadcasts, and it is labeled as such.”
Aug 14, 1982….equities @ 100% (?)……....777
Aug 21, 1987…..equities @ 100% ................2710(Announced on local radio in New York he recommended being fully invested. He had been mildly bullish to bullish on NBR the previous April, and is said to have been recommending dollar cost averaging prior to August 14th.)
Oct 19, 1987……equities @ 100%................1841
(Black Monday: Dow Down 695 or 25.6% From Top.)
Jan. 1988…….equities @ Zero.…………...2015
(Went to 100% cash & told listeners he was
bearish after the market was 9.5% above
bottom, taking the brunt of most of the
bear decline.)
Feb. 1989… equities @ 50%........................2342
(Market up 27% from the bottom.)
Nov 1989....equities @ 75%.........................2650
Feb 1990…. equities @ 40%..................2559
Mar.1990…..equities @ 50%..................2635
Apr. 1990….. equities @ 65%.................2687
May 1990…...equities @ 75%.................2656
July..1990…...equities @ 85%.................2840
July 18, 1990: Dow @ 3016....(Bull peak: up 50% since Jan. 1988)
Oct. 12, 1990: Dow @ 2398
(Gulf War bear bottom. Down 20.5% since bull peak.Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 where Brinker went form 0% to 50%)
Dec. 1990....equities @ 95%......2565
Jan. 1991…. equities @ 100%..................2550
Jan. 1991…. equities @ 100%..................2550
(Finally back to fully invested: Dow up 26.7% since going to 0% equities.For the next nine years (January 1991 to January 2000), Brinker remained fully invested and made himself a legend. (Rode out the 19% selloff in 1998.)
Missed out on a large portion of market gains from when he went to 100% cash at 2015 in January 1988.)
Jan. 2000… equities @ 40% ………Dow: 11, 122
(Lowered equities 60% within 5.1% of S&P top,and recommended putting cash in money market funds .)
Aug. 2000… equities @ 35% ...........Dow: 10,688
Oct. 16, 2000…equities @ 35%......QQQ = $83(65% now in cash reserves)
(Told subscribers to put 20% - 50% of (the 65%) cash reserves into QQQ for counter-trend rally.)
Jan. 8, 2001…equities @35%....QQQ = $62.44
(Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ.June 8, 2001….QQQ = 47.35 (Placed on hold)
Repeated same recommendation in February through May 2001 issues.)
Sept. 21, 2001…equities @ 35%...(Dow 8236 – hit 7926.93 intraday.)
Oct. 2002…equities @ 35%...21% actually remaining in equities…Dow 8950
(Still recommended 35% equities, but P1 in newsletter is 21% equities (not counting QQQ trades apparently due to lack of rebalancing.)
March 12, 2002…23% actual balance in equities …Dow 10,586
(DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing.
DJIA same level as August 2000 5% sell.)
Oct 9, 2002…19% balance in equities…Dow 7286
(Cyclical low so far. QQQ = 20.06, down 75.8% from10/16/00 buy at $83.)
March 11, 2003: equities @ 100% …Dow 7568; S&P 807.48.
(Issued bulletin on website before open based on March 10th close. QQQ = 24.01; S&P500 = 807.48; SPY = 81.32. He ended all guidance for existing QQQ positions in March, 2003.)
March 15, 2003….Announced 100% to weekend audience.
March 17, 2003 (Monday)….Dow 8142
(QQQ = 26.60; S&P500 = 862.79; SPY = 86.78
typical buy levels for weekend and snail mail
followers who use mutual funds.)
April 5, 2003….100%...(Recommended new equity purchases below S&P 810,
and dollar cost averaging otherwise. Stopped mentioning existing QQQ
positions in the newsletter text. It was never again accounted for in his
reports of newsletter performance.)
Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio stock allocations have remained 100% invested since March 10, 2003.
[This data was compiled by PETE from STAMFORD, CT, MrGreenJeans, DanG.Kirk Lindstrom and SteveT.
Data between 1982 and 1987 compiled by Math Junkie.Data between 1986 and Dec. 2000 compiled by Dan G.
Data between Dec. 2000 and July 2002 compiled by Kirk Lindstrom
Data between July 2002 and 2003 compiled by Steve T.]
Moneytalk on demand and to go with Bob Brinker, is available for FREE audio/podcasting at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker. (The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots.) If you don't download it from KGO within seven day, it's available at bobbrinker.com by paid subscription. KGO Radio Sunday Archives
67 comments:
Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people think about worries that they plainly don't know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
I wonder how many listeners Bob has these days when he isn't even heard in the two largest markets in the country? Bob hasn't been on KABC in Los Angeles or WABC in New York for many months. KABC here in Los Angeles runs "Cash Daddy" most of the time in his old time slot, basically an infomercial like most of their weekend programing and WABC in New York has been running The Jason Mattera Show.
I was able to break away from Bob Brinker addiction about 11 or 12 years ago after I followed his disastrous QQQ advice and the advice to put money into another loser that was a B2B mutual fund (the name of the fund escapes me now), both of which I sold many years ago after realizing that Bob was not the "market timer" that he led people to believe he was. Of course it was the good folks at Suite 101 that helped me to see the light back then Hahahha. Does anyone here remember going to a get together of Bob listeners? I flew my plane from the North Bay down to the South Bay to attend, and another listener picked me up at the airport to go to that luncheon.
Thanks for the synopsis every week, Honey Bee.
Rob In Pasadena, CA
Hi Anonymous,
Not real sure I understand what you said, but I thank you for saying it. LOL!
Yes, do come back for more. :)
Hi Rob,
I agree that Bob Brinker's listenership has to be way down from what it was a few years ago. Perhaps that is why he keeps making those middle-of-the-night appearances on a radio station where he is no longer carried: WABC.
The fund you are talking about that Brinker led so many into -- just before it fell out of bed -- was TEFQX. He touted that on the radio and Marketimer.
I did not go to that Brinker-bot get-together, but I heard about it and saw pictures of it. I was not invited because at that time, the bots ostracized anyone who said a critical word about Brinker.
I get no pleasure out of saying that the vast majority of those same "bots" now see the man in a different light.
But that said, there might have been more than one Brinker-party. Are you referring to the one at DanG's home?
But that said, there might have been more than one Brinker-party. Are you referring to the one at DanG's home?
Hi Honeybee,
I don't think it was at anyones home. If I recall correctly it was at a hotel or resort of some sort....my memory isn't what it used to be since I have undergone so many different types of chemotherapy though :-(
Oh dear, Rob. I am so sorry to hear that you have undergone chemotherapy. I do hope all is well for you now.
I'm sure there were many Brinker-get-togethers in the salad days of 1999-2000 when Bob Brinker Junior was running the Brinker message boards.
With the Labor Day weekend next week, my guess, there will be a guest host - Lynne?
Today's program as mentioned, was a rehash of prior programs. Therefore, not surprised the lost of listeners and the program only on once a weekend instead of twice.
Year 2000 was the last time listeners were told to move to the sidelines. BB missed the 2008 collapse to move listeners to the sidelines. And the current July-August events...did not anticipate moving to the sidelines.
With lack of market comment, the current radio program continue to lose listeners until the program will finally be pulled.
Advice going forward? Dollar-cost average, assuming there will be a rebound and not a bear market.
So, he's pulling another fast one today? Hard for me to tell, since I don't listen that often, and he never speaks about the current stock market, it's hard to tell when he's live or just fakin' it.
As for those old Brinker Bot Bashes, the first few years were held ant the Newark-Fremon Hotel, and were put together by John Bernstein.
Later ones were held in private homes (two or three in mine). There aren't many Bots at the old Bot site anymore, as it has developed into mostly a political blog between conservatives and lefties. If you enjoy argument after argument, solving nothing, then you'ld LOVE the Bots site now!
Embarrassing
Could only listen to the first hour. No opening commentary, no mention of the "contact number." The show was patched together from previous callers. And with a holiday approaching the odds on favorite is fill-in Lynn for next Sunday.
The only significant fact heard from that first hour was Mr B's admission of Charles Schwab as one of the firms he is comfortable with, despite the BJ Group repercussions. But when was that statement RECORDED?
BB is same as Fed chief BB who said
Time will heal the economy. OMG!
Sometimes the Blinker does not even answer the question,he just
repeats the same old junk.
I feel this guy BB is Fake.
And Wattenberg likes him ????
Thank You for posting Ur comments.
and nice pix.
Dan said, "If you enjoy argument after argument, solving nothing, then you'ld LOVE the Bots site now!
Are they accepting new members? Mebbe I'll join up again. (((ROAR)))
They are desperate for new members, Pig. So they might even take YOU! :-)
I still go there occasionally when I feel like watching a cockfight! I'm never disappointed!
"And Wattenberg likes him ????"
Wattenburg does like Bob's idea of havning Obama buy natural gas vehicles for all Federal agencies. And that's a good idea, though Obama continues to ignore it.
As far as I'm aware, Dr. W has never commented on Brinker's stock market advice, however.
PS--the futures are doing pretty much nothing now. Ho-hum and yawn!
Rob...I was there when Lindstrom ran the board! Long time ago. Remember Ultratech Stepper? Fortunately back then I didn't have a lot to invest. Since then I've learned the simple strategy of sticking with Vanguard index funds, gradually buying into bear markets and selling into bulls. Well, I'm sure Bob lost a lot of the money he suckered me out of during my subscriber days.
Honeybee
As always I enjoy your recap of Bob Brinker's show. Thanks for your posts and discussions.
One question...You had posted a link detailing high dividend stocks, can you re-post that link?
With the fixed income options so low and expected to remain unchanged for a couple years I would like to re-focus on blue chip high dividend stocks for income.
Thanks,
Bellevue Mike
The futures have moved fairly substantially to the upside.
As for dividend paying stocks, I subscribe to Dividend.Com. They rank high dividend paying stocks fundamentally. Good service, in my opinion, though I don't want to be in any stocks just yet. I just don't see the Dow getting through 12,000 easily. But...I could be wrong!
Hi Anonymous,
Not real sure I understand what you said, but I thank you for saying it. LOL!
Yes, do come back for more. :)
Actually 1:20PM made far more logical sense to me than anyone who tried to make the case that Bob Brinker could successfully time the market.
I am still trying to understand how anyone who has read this forum could conclude he is anything other than huckster.
tfb
With the fixed income options so low and expected to remain unchanged for a couple years I would like to re-focus on blue chip high dividend stocks for income.
Thanks,
Bellevue Mike
Most libraries have Value Line and I noticed last week that they actually have 2 portfolio that highlight dividend stocks that may be of interest to you.
One is Portfolio II stocks for income and potential price appreciation and portfolio IV stocks with above average dividends.
Here is a link with more details:
http://valueline.com/Tools/Educational_Articles/Stocks_Detail.aspx?id=9079
tfb
.my memory isn't what it used to be since I have undergone so many different types of chemotherapy though :-(
I extend sincere sympathy to you, I hope you stay strong and the results prove beneficial to your well being.
tfb
Well I'll be darned, I had no idea this is how Da Brink approached he market(re Honey's summary comments on Da Brink asset allocation over time), a combination of asset allocation and market timing. I thought he just timed the market and had an outlier 200 call when he reduced exposure as a hedge, I did not understand this was a primary tactic he employed - hmmmm...interesting.
Well off hand I would say this complicates things tremendously when you want to measure his record. For one his model portfolios as I understand them have various betas...so if he guesses the general trend correctly he can get you a market rate of return with less exposure than the general market, that could also cushion the downside. Very interesting.
I did nto pick up on this before. And on the radio he usually talks about how it depends on your asset allocation which lead me erroneously to conclude Da Brink left the percentage of your assets in equities up to you. I really thought that 2000 reduction to 65% was an outlier, I did not get that he did this all the time. Sheesh, that makes it harder then heck to measure his performance as you need to carefully select your benchmarks and then consider beta.
Hmmmm...thanks Honey...very interesting.
tfb
I suspect the spliced best-of callers, was an accomodation to the hurricane, staffing issues, and uncertainties about satelittes/tech connections...
I suspect the spliced best-of callers, was an accomodation to the hurricane, staffing issues, and uncertainties about satelittes/tech connections...
There was a hurricane in Henderson Nevada? WOW!
If he predicted there was going to be satellite trouble, and transmission troubles, then he is as accurate as his market timing. (zero)
I suspect the reason that NOONE was even told about it being a rerun was so that he wouldn't upset his listeners on the east coast, and cause a panic, right?
I betcha you could spin a flat piece of paper.
Nothing better than a hearsay rehash of Brinker's allocation going back to 1982...NEARLY 30 YEARS AGO.
Who really cares about that crap anyway? I would really rather listen to Brinker's canned calls anyday than some 30 year old junk.
My favorite caller yesterday was Sam from Chicago. He said he was new to investing and was about to inherit a considerable sum of money. He ask Bob about hedge funds. A rich friend told him about one that had a million dollar minimum. Bob said he was nervous about that. He ask the caller how much money was involved. The caller said $15 million would be coming his way from overseas. I though Bob should of ask him if he would consider buying Luxemburg as a summer home.
This call was originally aired on 20 February 2011. I posted a comment about it at that time.
S&P seems to have stalled at the resistance level of 1200. So a small short via SDS seemed in order. And it's now sporting a profit of $25! Well, that's better than a jab in the eye with a sharp stick.
Thanks Dan G for comments. And I
agree. I also wonder why
Obama continues to ignore it.
Only God knows and he is not telling me...
Well, the market is much stronger than I thought it could be, so I blew out my short at the close for $150 loss. Got to keep those losses short, and let profits run. But where are the profits! "-(
Dan - ya'll have me baffled - how much of you portfolios do you put at risk with shorts and what type of leverage are you using on the long side?
I noted you mentioned dividends also, so I am ASSUMING you have a large portion in dividend stocks when you are long and a small portion you play market timing guru with - hot - warm - cold?
Curious,
tfb
Birdbrain said: "The only significant fact heard from that first hour was Mr B's admission of Charles Schwab as one of the firms he is comfortable with, despite the BJ Group repercussions. But when was that statement RECORDED?"
Birdbrain....I had missed that but a friend told me that Bob Brinker actually said that Charles Schwab had been a guest on his program.
Is that the way you heard it? I was very surprised about it. I had no idea that Charles Schwab had ever done interviews like that.
I also see that Schwab has written a book. Looks very interesting:
Charles Schwab's New Guide to Financial Independence Completely Revised and Updated: Practical Solutions for Busy People
I can definitely confirm that Charles Schwab was a guest on Moneytalk. It was a long time ago. I was listening that week and was shocked that he was the guest.
It's starting to look like the stock market correction may be over. After an 18% decline we've had a nice rebound. Brinker has dodged a bullet. If the rest of the week is good maybe Brinker will be just another "workin stiff" and do Moneytalk on Labor Day weekend.
I still remain hopeful we will see another sell off and maybe go a leg lower in Oct - Dan how is it looking for Sept when you tech trend types calculate 200 day moving averages?
I have a big shopping list and want to buy on sale.
tfb
Bellevue Mike asked: "One question...You had posted a link detailing high dividend stocks, can you re-post that link?"
Hi Mike,
I'm not certain which link you are referring to...I checked back through all of August comments and didn't find it. Do you think it was earlier than that?
Here is the very latest list of Jim Cramer's high-yield stock picks compiled by one of the Seeking Alpha writers that I follow:
Jim Cramer's 26 Favorite High Yield Dividend Paying Stocks
Jim said: "I can definitely confirm that Charles Schwab was a guest on Moneytalk. It was a long time ago. I was listening that week and was shocked that he was the guest."
Yep, just as I would have been. I must have completely missed the program because I'm sure I would not have forgotten it.
Indeed, if the market has bottomed here at 18%, then "Brinker dodged another bullet." This correction is very similar to the one in 1998. That bullet came equally close, but fizzled just before becoming a full-fledged bear.
I probably shouldn't say this, but I'm not convinced this is the bottom. My indoor kitty-timer has been coughing up an inordinately large furballs when CNBC is on in the mornings. :)
anonymous said: "Nothing better than a hearsay rehash of Brinker's allocation going back to 1982...NEARLY 30 YEARS AGO.
Who really cares about that crap anyway"
Well, first to address the subtle lie contained in what you wrote: There was only a small portion of Brinker's allocation that was "hearsay," and that was between 1982-1986.
(And if you won't take the word of a long-term Brinker-bot like "math junkie," whose word would you take?)
The remainder of the whole history, was documented from old Marketimer's and memory.
My Brinker-memory goes back to 1987. I was a devoted fan at that time. I heard Bob Brinker being interviewed on KGO810 radio as the stock market was CRASHING on Black Monday!
He was saying not to sell any stock. It was only three months LATER that he went to 100% cash -- as my article shows.
Secondly, can you read? It isn't all "old" -- it's complete, current, and up to the minute!
As for your sarcastic question about who care about this "crap."
Well, I guess you do -- for one!
TFB,
Here's the hyperlink for the link that you posted for Bellevue Mike:
Valueline Educational Article
anonymous said: "Nothing better than a hearsay rehash of Brinker's allocation going back to 1982...NEARLY 30 YEARS AGO.
Who really cares about that crap anyway"
I'd say it is far more productive than sitting in your mother's basement eating Doritos with one hand while you fondle your shrunken poor excuse for manhood with the other while searching for kiddie porn like you do.
Love,
tfb
TFB said: "I did nto pick up on this before. And on the radio he usually talks about how it depends on your asset allocation which lead me erroneously to conclude Da Brink left the percentage of your assets in equities up to you. I really thought that 2000 reduction to 65% was an outlier, I did not get that he did this all the time."
Well, actually, when you break it down, you could consider the 65% cash he raised in 2000 an outlier if you look at the past 8 years. And before that, for nine years in the 1990's he remained fully invested.
The difference is that he was RIGHT to be fully invested in the 90's, but largely wrong to buy-and-hold since 2003.
The S&P 500 Index right now is a couple of hundred points above what it was when he went to fully invested in March 2003, but it has been 150 points lower.
As for Brinker leaving asset allocation up to subscribers, that is true -- they can do as they wish. But why pay for advice and not take it?
What Brinker does with his model portfolios is what matters. His performance record is based on those portfolios. That record is what he advertises in order to sell Marketimer.
What Brinker does with his model portfolios is what matters. His performance record is based on those portfolios. That record is what he advertises in order to sell Marketimer.
I think I obscured my main point. If he altered his percentages than his model portfolios would need to reflect that. Think about that for a long minute. Let's say portfolio x went up 10% on a aggregate closing share price for the portfolio for a given year, but if Brinker's recommended allocation was on 65% than his return woudl really be 6.5% not 10%.
Moreover you woudl have to ask yourself his return if good or and compared to what. As you would have to match risk profiles.
So saying a portfolio is up 225% means next to nothing unless you have an appropriate benchmark to compare it to.
tfb
TFB asked: "how much of you portfolios do you put at risk with shorts and what type of leverage are you using on the long side?"
When I'm not real sure which way the market is leaning, I'll usually just ease into double long or short S&Ps. If things go my way, I'll add more and more. If not, I'll get out with a small loss.
For instance today I went "short" via SDS 300 shares when the market was way up. But it never went my way, so I got out at the close for a $150 loss.
When I'm really bullish I buy about 10 high dividend stocks and try to hold them as long as the market looks good.
All this is done in an E*Trade trading account with about 25% of total portfolio. The other 75% is usually in a balanced fund (OAKBX) which I tend to hold for longer term, though right now that's totally in cash because the market looks flakey and it's during the seasonally unfavorable period until November.
If the longer term indicator I watch, which is only calculated at the end of each month, turns bearish (which it has a very good chance of doing at the end of August, I think) I'll be totally bearish and play only the short side via SDS.
Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. Right now after today's small loss, I'm back to 100% cash in the trading account as well as in the mutual fund account. The market has been pretty strong lately, but there is a huge overhanging supply near Dow 12,000, which is also where the downsloping 50 and 200 day moving averages are currently.
"I think I obscured my main point. If he altered his percentages than his model portfolios would need to reflect that. Think about that for a long minute. Let's say portfolio x went up 10% on a aggregate closing share price for the portfolio for a given year, but if Brinker's recommended allocation was on 65% than his return woudl really be 6.5% not 10%."
Obviously, Brinker's portfolios reflect his recommended allocation.
Thus a 10% return on the model portfolio would be a 10% return on his recommended allocation.
And the appropriate bench mark against which to measure his performance is the total market.
It's not rocket science.
Obviously, Brinker's portfolios reflect his recommended allocation.
I am not so sure. To know you would have tot look at a pre march 10th 2003 newsletter. I have never seen one myself - maybe you have?
What I would expect, if he did as you say is in his portfolios there would currently be a MMF allocation that indicated 0%.
Honey do yo have a pre March 10th 2003 issue to review and see how he represents his non-equity allocations?
Moreover if I recall what his portfolios looked like he tracked beta, so when you look at performance you need to adjust for risk when comparing to a benchmark or find the correct benchmark.
For instance if Brinker's portfolio had a beta of 1.25 the benchmark should not be the base S&P500 but at a minimum the S&P500 times 1.25.
tfb
Anonymous (scared to give a real name, eh Bob?) Brinker supporter: Obviously, Brinker's portfolios reflect his recommended allocation.
Brinker critic tfb: I am not so sure. To know you would have tot look at a pre march 10th 2003 newsletter. I have never seen one myself - maybe you have?
Brinker complicates it with numerous "off the books" recommendations (never make it to model portfolios) he'll advertise on his weekly informercial as well as free sample newsletters WHEN THEY WORK OUT and drop completely from coverage when they don't. The best example is Brinker's QQQ advice. Make sure you click the two images of a special bulletin sent to subscribers and a letter sent to those he managed money for.
Update on Bob Brinker's 2000 QQQ Advice as of Tuesday, August 30, 2011
The last time Bob Brinker recommended reducing equities was in the summer of 2000 when he increased his 60% cash position to 65% of the total portfolio in P1 and P2.
Brinker told his audience to stay in the money fund at Vanguard to be liquid for special trading "opportunities."
On October 16, 2000 Bob Brinker sent a special subscriber bulletin via email urging them to "Act Immediately" and put up to 50% of their cash reserves into the NASDAQ 100 index via QQQ for a trade he expected would occur quickly and end in 2 to 4 months
You can see an actual copy of the special bulletin HERE.
When the rally in QQQ failed to materialize as predicted, Brinker decided to NOT include this in his model portfolios when he published his November Marketimer newsletter dated November 6, 2010,
The odd thing was he continued to recommend the investment in his newsletter until the QQQs lost about half their value, falling to the $40s, where he said to "hold for future price recovery."
January 2001 Marketimer: Bob Brinker said, "We continue to emphasize the guidelines we have recommended with regard to the exposure in the Nasdaq 100 Index for the countertrend rally phase we expect.......we are expecting potential gains for the Nasdaq 100 Index of up to 50% or more as measured from the January 2 closing low....." (January 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $64.30)
April 6, 2001 Marketimer, Page 2; Paragraph 5: Bob Brinker said, "Recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares has far exceeded our expectations. However, we believe subscribers holding a position in these shares will eventually be rewarded, although this holding will require both time and patience. With or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months." (April 1, 2001, QQQQ closed at $46.15)
If you followed Brinker's advice to buy the QQQ shares any time following the October 16th bulletin until he stopped recommending QQQ for up to 50% of cash reserves, the top price you could have paid was $87.87 on Oct 20, 2000
From Yahoo! QQQ from Oct 10 to Nov 1, 2000
Today QQQ is $55.01 which is down 37.4% from $87.87, the highest QQQ was while Brinker was recommending it for up to 50% of cash reserves.
Hold for future recovery from April 2001? The 10-year Treasury in April 2001 was about 5%. He could have sold QQQ and bought a 10-year treasury and be 50% higher by putting the dividends under a mattress.
"Brinker complicates it with numerous "off the books" recommendations (never make it to model portfolios) he'll advertise on his weekly informercial as well as free sample newsletters WHEN THEY WORK OUT and drop completely from coverage when they don't."
Those "off the books" recommendations are just that.
They are never meant to be included in the model porfolios WHETHER THEY WORK OUT OR NOT!
Just for example. Brinker has had a tremendous run in MSFT for YEARS but never once did he include that success in any of his portfolios.
You win some and you lose some, but then you know that Kirk.
TFB asked: "Honey do yo have a pre March 10th 2003 issue to review and see how he represents his non-equity allocations?"
Yes, I do...
March 2003 Marketimer:
Portfolio I: Money Market = 65%
Portfolio II: Money Market = 65%
Portfolio III: Money Market = 65%
In the April 2003 Marketimer, no more Money Market. All invested in mutual funds.
April 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "On March 11, the Marketimer stock market timing model returned to bullish territory for the first time since January of Year 2000....All Marketimer model portfolio stock market cash reserves were reinvested at the market close of March11 (DJIA 7524; S&P 5000 Index 800)."
In the April issue, he added the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX) to all of the portfolios.
He also added the Rydex OTC Fund (RYOCX), which is equivalent to the QQQ's he had previously recommended in 2000, and never sold.
Slick huh? Now he had an "official" QQQ position at the bottom of the market, and the other buy was BURIED.
It's just my opinion, but I think that is dishonest and really dirty.
anonymous said: "They are never meant to be included in the model porfolios WHETHER THEY WORK OUT OR NOT!"
Well, it's a good thing for Brinker that he doesn't include them in his portfolios. Many of them are LOOOSERS!
For example, have you taken a look at DVY lately? Before the bear hit, he told a caller that was a safe ETF because it paid high dividends. Oopsy! It fell by about 2/3 in 2009.
And that MSFT is a real money maker isn't it? LOL!!
"For example, have you taken a look at DVY lately? Before the bear hit, he told a caller that was a safe ETF because it paid high dividends. Oopsy! It fell by about 2/3 in 2009."
I have NEVER heard Brinker tell anybody an investment was SAFE.
And even if he did say that, he obviously didn't mean it couldn't go down in value.
BTW, did you buy some of that DVY or did you just stick with junk bonds?
Bill Gross: I Feel Like 'Crying' For Betting Against U.S. Debt
Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, feels like "crying in his beer" for having bet so heavily against U.S. government-related debt earlier this year, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
Showing a more bearish view on the U.S. economy, Gross said PIMCO had initially dumped all of its U.S. debt holdings in March as he expected economic growth to be higher, resulting in inflation down the road.
That decision greatly undermined the performance of PIMCO's Total Return Fund (PTTRX.O). As Treasuries prices rallied, the fund lost 0.97 percent in the past four weeks, while the benchmark Barclay's U.S. Aggregated Bond Index rose 0.23 percent in the same period, according to Lipper data.
So far this year, the fund has returned 3.29 percent, less than the 4.55 percent recorded by the Barclay's benchmark index.
Perhaps "safe" was not the right word to use. I should have said that he told her not to worry about it because of the large dividend.
When I get time, I will try to find the exact quote.
I owned DVY for awhile and made money on it because I sold it before the big drop.
Also, I sold all JNK before this latest hit and now looking for a good entry point again.
Anonymous (scared to give a real name, eh Bob?) Brinker supporter quips:
Just for example. Brinker has had a tremendous run in MSFT for YEARS but never once did he include that success in any of his portfolios.
Yeah, right. Back in February 2000 issue of Marketimer Brinker lists MSFT as a HOLD at $103.50 on page 7 and TEFQX as a BUY ith a full page recommendation on page 3. He explains he likes these despite recommending only 40% in equities... these were a stock and a fund he recommended owning.
He reiterated his buy of TEFQX in March 2000 at at $17.37.
MSFT split 2:1 so $103.50 is $51.75 today. Hardly great success....
Today MSFT closed at $26.23 and TEFQX clsoed at $5.93.
It is a good thing Hulbert doesn't include those in his record... it would be DISMAL!
Hi Rob In Pasadena, CA. Good to hear from someone from the old days! I hope you are well.
I followed his disastrous QQQ advice and the advice to put money into another loser that was a B2B mutual fund (the name of the fund escapes me now), both of which I sold many years ago after realizing that Bob was not the "market timer" that he led people to believe he was.
Does this Marketimer quote jog your memory?
March 8, 2000 Marketimer Newsletter, Page 3 and paragraph 2: FIRSTHAND e-COMMERCE FUND UPDATE: “We remain comfortable with exposure up to 5% of a portfolio in this fund… we believe this fund provides an excellent vehicle for investing in companies involved in rapidly growing business-to[business commerce and other fast growing internet companies. (Page 4 shows the ticker is TEFQX and it was priced $17.65 in the table.)
$17.63 to $5.83 never recorded in the official record... yet he get accolades from DULbert for beating the market by about a percent for the life of his portfolio....
Honey: Thank for posting this:
March 2003 Marketimer:
Portfolio I: Money Market = 65%
Portfolio II: Money Market = 65%
Portfolio III: Money Market = 65%
tfb
Nice blog HoneyBee. Now I'm wonderting if they are also pasting together pieces of old Market Timer? Actually he would probably be more accurate by randomly picking old recommendations and just throwing them out there.
SJW
The “real yield” on inflation-protected Treasuries, known as TIPS, has collapsed.
Short-term TIPS now lock in a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. Even long-term TIPS don’t pay you much over inflation.
Frankj:
Well, well. A spliced together, repeat show. Thank you, Honeybee. I made it a point to listen and was puzzled by lack of monologue, so now we know what to look for.
It also explains the nature of the calls. At one point I mentioned to my son who was with me, " some of these calls must be staged, there are too many that mention the newsletter."
FrankJ,
Yes, no monologues at all, no phone numbers, and no mention of the markets or the upcoming week.
I remembered a few of the calls, and most of them were chosen to showcase the "investment letter."
However, one in particular that I clearly remembered, but did not write about, I was able to trace back to November 2009.
It was about the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Kirk Lindstrom mentioned it in a summary that he wrote. Here is what Kirk wrote:
"Revenue Bonds are backed by the proceeds of a particular project. Bob gave an example of the Pennsylvania Turnpike where revenue bonds were issued to build the toll road then the collected tolls are used to repay the bonds. These work as long as the project is successful defined as generating the revenue necessary to repay the bonds."
SJW said: "Nice blog HoneyBee. Now I'm wonderting if they are also pasting together pieces of old Market Timer? Actually he would probably be more accurate by randomly picking old recommendations and just throwing them out there. SJW"
Well, I can tell you that they often just re-write and/or cover the same subjects that they've written about in prior issues.
For example, when the secular bear market is on (as it is now, according to Bob Brinker) they have repeatedly covered the long-term history of secular trends in Marketimer.
It appears to be done with an eye toward convincing subscribers that they will be able to tell them when the current cyclical bull market will end.
The not-subtle message is, keep those renewals coming in or you will not get Brinker's special buy and sell calls. :)
The first call (previously recorded) was clearly a set-up. She said she talked to a professional in the real estate market who wanted all of her money. That makes no sense and Brinker did not challenge her to understand what she was saying. She seemed to get a little flustered and then went a little bit off script. Bob did not miss a beat and went into his canned response.
The late August rally was apparently enough to keep the longer term monthly MACD for S&P and Dow from turning decidedly bearish.
Strangely enough, however, the double inverse S&P (SDS) turned slightly bullish!
So it looks like a toss-up long term. Still, for the Dow to break through that big resistance level at 12,000 would seem unlikely to me. But then it seemed unlikely to me that the monthly MACD would stay bullish or even neutral, yet it did.
Bottom line is, caution seems to be in order as the Dow approaches 12,000. But it does seem hell-bent-for leather to make the attempt! So I'll just watch for awhile...or take a nap. Yeah, that's the safest thing to do...take a nap!
Worst call was probably the Bradford guy in hour 2 (previously recorded). No question from him for Bob. He just rambled on about buying distressed properties in his IRA without any challenge from Bob about % of his net worth in distressed properties, diversification, or who is getting commissions when he buys and sells. Bob just asked this before unknown caller a bunch of softball questions and then proclaimed Bradford a career expert on the subject. This is way too obvious a set up call. Perhaps some kickback recevied from someone trying to get IRAs to invest directly in real estate. Just ridiculous.
Dan: Speaking of taking a nap, the Feline Indicator is flashing bullish on US equities, the cat having taken a long nap on the hood of the Ford Explorer yesterday.
Seriously, your comments are most appreciated and speaking for myself they have prompted me to try and do some learning on TA.
Frankj
Oh no, Frank! The Feline indicator is bullish?
Well, trouble is, after my nap I tried an SDS "short" once again, and this time it appears to be successful! At least so far. Not outrageously, but $205 worth. That makes up for yesterday's boo-boo.
There is lots of free TA info on IBD's site http://www.investors.com/.
One caveat, don't follow too many indicators or they will drive you nuts! I look at chart patterns, Moving averages, Stochastic Oscillators for overbought/oversold indications, and MACD for trend, daily for short term, and monthly for long term.
I do also pay attention to seasonals such as the old "Sell in May" which has a pretty good, but not perfect, record.
Good luck. But I might add that you can also get good results with far less work just by using diversification and proper asset allocation, rebalancing occasionally.
- Dan G
Oh hey, the futures are headed South! Could this be the time I finally win big on the short side? Here's hoping! (Sorry, bulls!)
Sorry for the duplicate comment, which I deleted.
Anyway, it doesn't look good for bulls this morning. My only gripe is that I didn't have a good opportunity this morning to add to the SDS position. But I guess the bulls have even bigger gripes, so I'll shut up!
M from Seattle
Also noted that, while Seattle may not be the largest Radio market, Brinker has been pushed from a top weekend spot to late night if at all slots that are constantly changing.
Love your page Honeybee!
Post a Comment