Bob Brinker, host of Moneytalk today, said: "This is the program that helps you become your own personal financial manager. And that is the magic moment where you can take charge of your personal financial future. No longer will you be shark-bait for those out there trying to take a giant bite out of your wallet.......So that hopefully, if you're not already there, you can reside in that land of critical mass."
FINANCIAL MARKETS: Bob said: "The financial markets continue extremely volatile. Stock market remaining highly volatile. The roller-coaster opened a couple of weeks ago and it's remained open this past week.......The Dow Industrial closing the week at 10,817. The S&P closing at 1123. And interest rates remaining at or near record lows.....Despite the opinion of Standard and Poors, the flight to quality has gone to US Treasurys to the extent that money is flowing into 3-month Treasury Bills for no yield on the assurance that the money will be returned dollar for dollar, principle wise on maturity."
Honey EC: That was the only time today that the stock market was mentioned -- no calls, no further comments about it. Brinker couldn't have said much less than "the market was volatile," but if stocks continue to decline, expect him to make no mention of it at all -- like he did in 2008-2009 for many months.
Bob reiterated what he said on Doug McIntire's WABC Red Eye program where he made a guest appearance last Friday. Please see my last article because I covered it there. Basically, Brinker is blaming the market volatility on two things: the slow US economy and concern for what's going on in Europe.
To add to what Bob said about the stock market, the Dow has had 4 weeks of losses. The S&P 500 Index is down 16% in 4 weeks-- the second worst 4-week loss since 1950. The Nasdaq is at 2341.84 -- a 10-month low.
Bob has zipped his lip about what he said on July 31st. The day before the Dow began the "roller-coaster ride" he said he had been buying in the 1200's Wonder why he would zip his lip about that? Maybe because he knew back then about the slowing US economy? I know that because just a day later when the August Marketimer was published, he had lowered his real GDP forecast to 1% to 2% -- as he said later in this program.
CREATING JOBS: PRIVATE VS PUBLIC....Bob said: "There is an inherent contradiction in policies when a country embarks on government austerity at the same time they are trying to grow the economy.....and it is very apparent in the United States in the July jobs report.....The private sector in July pulled its weight by creating 154,000 new private sector jobs.......But the policy in the United States right now is to move to smaller government -- less government jobs.....That's what we saw in July. Federal, state and local lost a total of 37,000 jobs in July. So instead of finishing July with a terrific number.....we wind up with 117,000, which is a fair number but not going to get the job done......with our rates of unemployment, 9.1 and 16.1 for underemployment. And this is what I mean by contradiction in policies.
And this could also make you want to bat your head against the wall to try to gather the sense of what these policies are aiming for. Think about it, on one hand, you have people in government......talking about growing the economy....growing the country out of these huge annual deficits....they talk about it 24/7....creating jobs. But on the other side of the ledger, we have a government policy of shrinking the government....let's have a more limited government.....And that means less government jobs....more minus signs in the government jobs market.....
On the one hand we want private sector job growth. On the other hand, we want smaller government. At least this is the policy coming out of Washington. And this subtraction comes off the private sector and we wind up with lackluster jobs growth....Government austerity is in in Washington. Budget cutting is in in Washington as is the move to smaller government. And that is a counter growth economic policy, which means the private sector has to pull all the weight on the economy.
And remember, we are in an economy where we are borrowing 40 cents of every dollar we spend. We are taking in about $2.3 trillion in revenue. And we're spending aobut $3.7 trillion on all of the government outgo. And that's how we get a deficit of about $1.4 trillion in the current fiscal year....." (continued next paragraph)
ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR 2011: Bob continued: "......And that is why I downgraded the growth rate of the US economy several weeks ago in my investment letter to a range of 1% to 2%, and that is what I think we are going to get in 2011 -- real Gross Domestic Product, total good and services growth in 2011.....And if you think that kind of growth is going to cure the unemployment problem - it's not going to happen. We will not cure the unemployment with growth in the range of 1% to 2%, and with government austerity the law of the land."
Honey EC: Bob is right that he lowered his real GDP growth target range to 1 to 2% in the August 3rd edition of Marketimer. However, what he didn't say was that just the prior month in the July issue, he was predicting real GDP growth of 2% to 3%, which he said was slightly more conservative than the revised Federal Reserve forecast of 2.7& to 2.9% in 2011.
S&P DOWNGRADE....Caller Craig from Cupertino said that the S&P downgrade was a vote against the politicians. Bob said that yes, they did everyone a favor because it was a "shot across the bow for the politicians" and he was all for that because the politicians created the problem. Bob thinks that the AA rating is an excellent rating.
RECESSION COMING? Caller John from Illinois asked Bob if he thought the chance of another recession is greater now than ever. Bob said: "I think the greatest chance of going into recession, when you look back at what happened with the subprime meltdown, I think the greatest chance of going into recession, with the modern era here, would be 2008. You would probably have to go back to 1974 to find as great a chance of going into recession. But obviously there are risks in the economy. My forecast is 1% to 2% growth....very slow growth....There is also a lot of stimulus going on....Anything that the government spends above revenue is stimulus spending...."
UPTICK RULE....Caller Collette from Carmel asked Bob about petitioning the government to re-instate the uptick rule. Bob said that it was lobbying money that had paid to get it removed in 2007, and the same money had overturned the Glass Steagall in 1999. He is all for it being re-instated, but thinks that the average American's one vote probably isn't powerful enough to over-rule the power of the big-money lobbying movement.
NATURAL GAS AND $2 A GALLON GASOLINE. Collette second question: "When I reread Dr Bill Wattenberg's letter, he said we could have $2 a gallon gasoline, which of course, would boost this economy incredibly...Maybe that's what Michelle Bachmann's talking about if she becomes president. She mentioned $2 a gallon gasoline. Isn't that interesting?"
Bob replied: "If you want to see gasoline prices come down, you watch what would happen the day that an executive order was signed by the president to run all government vehicles going forward on natural gas. Because the next year, we could move that to the state and municipal level, and then to the consumer level, and we could stop spending hundreds of billions of dollars and sending that money to places like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia."
FREEZE FEDERAL EMPLOYEE SALARIES? Caller Sylvia suggested a 5% pay cut for all federal employees. Bob said: "It would be fully appropriate to put in a salary and benefit freeze on government employees at the federal level."
DON'T MESS WITH FOOD CHAIN...Caller Bill from Stockton said that in San Joaquin County, they have more cows than people and the ethanol subsidies have put 250 dairies out of business in the last couple of years in California because of the feed prices. He said that even Castro says that ethanol equals genocide.
Bob replied that they should never mess with food supply, food chain -- that when you start using corn for energy, you are messing with the food chain and running the risk of food price inflation worldwide. "It is a disastrous policy" and he hates to agree with a "ruthless, Communist Dictator like Fidel Castro, but in terms of messing with the food chain, it's something you just never do."
GOVERNMENT SELL GOLD RESERVES? Caller Dave from Rockford wanted to know why the government couldn't sell reserve gold bars to help with the debt. Bob said he didn't think it would have any effect on the economy because there is no shortage of money in the economy. In fact, the banks are flush with money they are not lending out. They have become risk averse and will only lend to those who don't need it. Also corporations have over a $trillion in their coffers and are "lean and mean."
COMMON EURO BOND? Bob said: (German Chancellor) "Angela Merkel is speaking loudly and clearly that she is not ready to agree to the issuance of common Euro-area bonds.....Those would be bonds denominated in Euros and therefore payable by the members of the European Union. Seventeen countries use the Euro as a currency today."
BAN SHORT-SELLING? Caller George in Tennessee said that many countries around the world are banning short-selling and wanted to know if that would be a good idea here. Bob said that he would not be for banning short selling, but he was certainly for re-instating the uptick rule. It was "happy hour for the bear raiders" when they removed it.
WILL THE GOVERNMENT TAKE AWAY THE MORTGAGE DEDUCTION? Joe in California asked Bob if he thought it might be taken away. Bob said he thought it was "on the table" because it wass being discussed as one of the ways to close the budget deficit.
WILL THE GOVERNMENT CONFISCATE GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM OR CLASSIC CARS? Joe in California said that in the 1930's when they confiscated gold, they did not confiscate silver or classic cars. Bob said he had not seen any evidence that the government was going to move to confiscate gold.
Bob said: "If you recall what happened in the 1930's the confiscation had a purpose. The purpose was because they wanted people to use the green back, fiat currency. That was accomplished 7 or 8 decades ago. So there is no purpose to confiscate gold to encourage the use of fiat currency. People don't buy things with gold.....So I don't see any reason for the government to confiscate gold. The reason you hear about this mainly it's from gold coin sellers...don't be surprised if a gold coin are marked up 50 or 100% the day you buy it......You have a speculative metal and you have some people who are using gold as a hedge against fiat currency because they think fiat currencies are going to be worthless.....It's virtually impossible to forecast the price of gold because you have this speculative furor out there right now that's dominating the market price in gold." (Bob said the same applies to silver and platinum.)
WHAT HAPPENS TO ECONOMY IF INTEREST RATES GO UP? Bob said: "The reason you've seen interest rates come down is because the economy is very sluggish....I do expect we'll finish out the year between 1% and 2%, so consequently we've seen interest rates come down because there is no risk that the rate of inflation is going to skyrocket. Core inflation over the past twelve.... is 1.3% and they are tolerating core inflation rate of up to 2%.....I think there's a lot of people that would be happy to see higher level of interest rates.....If the Federal Reserve were to raise the Federal Funds rate from 0 to 25 basis points, up to 100 basis points, in response to a better economy, no, I don't believe that that would hurt an already improving economy which is probably a precursor to that kind of a policy change."
Bob's guest today was Bob Lutz, "Car Guys Versus Bean Counters: The Battle for the Soul of American Business." (Honey EC: In Edit: After reviewing this guest interview, I decided it was mostly just rehashing the GM bailout and political posturing by both Bobs -- not worth the time to even summarize.)
Moneytalk on demand and to go with Bob Brinker, is available for FREE audio/podcasting at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker. (The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots.) If you don't download it from KGO within seven day, it's available at bobbrinker.com by paid subscription. KGO Radio Sunday Archives
96 comments:
Copying DanG's post to new thread:
Dan G said...
I didn't listen very long, but long enough to learn some astounding stock market news! Bob said the markets last week were...get this...VOLATILE! And we didn't even have to pay for that news!
I never heard the market mentioned after that, so I turned it off and contemplated the wisdom that I had just obtained...for FREE!
BTW, the futures haven't been open long, but the Dow is already down over 80 points. If this continues, hold onto your hats tomorrow, folks. It could be UGLY!
August 21, 2011 4:54 PM
Dan
I listen to most of the show and found it interesting that none of the callers asked or talked about the stock market. The only mention of the market was what you referred to in the opening monologue and he said very little about it there.
Today Brinker had me a bit confused when talking about government jobs. He seemed to complain that when the government sheds jobs it puts too much pressure on the private sector to create jobs. So what does he want, bigger government? Later he said he felt there should be a pay freeze for federal workers.
Thanks guys, that saved me from listening to the first hour, which I missed.
--Frankj
"...found it interesting that none of the callers asked or talked about the stock market."
Interesting? Have you ever heard of the term "call screener"? He never, NEVER gets calls he doesn't want to hear...unless somebody fakes out the call screener.
Some Sunday we should swamp the screener with market timing questions, so no one else can get through. He'd have to take a market call or do a 3-hour monologue!
Well, in other news, the futures seem to have turned positive, which will allow me to short the heck out of it if it continues on until the opening.
- Dan G
I believe the futures are positive so they can spin the Gadhafi overthrow and try to squeeze the shorts. Should be a half day to 3/4th of a day wonder while every gets short again after lunch.
At the open will be a great time to buy some OIH.
Joey
BB disappoints.
He could have said dollar-cost average at lower prices, praying for an eventual upmove.
A couple of shows prior, BB compared 2011 to 2010 with the last 4 months finishing higher.
BB mentioned 1%-2% slow growth the 2nd 1/2 of 2011; but he ended it there, without giving a prediction where the S&P500 is headed.
Yes, the screener did an excellent job, as no callers cared to comment on last week market action and the future implication.
Dan G
Why do you feel the market will continue to go down from here?. What are you shorting?
"The financial markets continue extremely volatile."
Too bad they were only extremely volatile in one direction.
Joey
Caller Cheryl in the third hour was upset at people in congress who voted against raising the debit limit. I agree Cheryl anyone who votes against it is irresponsible and has no business being in Washington. Here is a speech by one of these folks. Cheryl please join me in not voting for this person in 2012.
"The fact that we're here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Leadership means 'The buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit."
The speaker: Then-Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., back in 2006.
PS. Is this guy one of those tea baggers Cheryl alluded to?
I don't know why you Bob haters always make it seem like he purposely is hiding his stock market calls. There could be a much simpler explanation.
He's old, washed up, and he's lost it. He might not even know that the stock market exists anymore.
or...........
If you want to know what he thinks about the market..........cough up $185 ASAP. This guy ain't gonna tell you nuttin for free!
I salute him for another brilliant marketing strategy.
Sold OIH for a 3.07% gain. Use half to purchase IBT (Inverse 20 year bond).
Will sit on hands and see what this does after lunch.
Joey
If you want to know what he thinks about the market..........cough up $185 ASAP. This guy ain't gonna tell you nuttin for free!
And even after paying $185 he still is not going to be able to tell you a darn thing worth knowing as what he does is total BS. The proof is in his record.
Oh yeah his famous 2000 bear call - LOL, let me see he got on the air and said, something like...well uh, how would you feel if the market when up 8% but you only enjoyed 4% of the uptick, but on the other hand if the market went down 20% you only lost 10%...and that folks was his great call that people now consider his bear market call...he simply hedged, took a middle of the road approach and did not call a bear market or he would have told you to get out of the market.
tfb
BB said "And this could also make you want to bat your head against the wall to try to gather the sense of what these policies are aiming for. Think about it, on one hand, you have people in government......talking about growing the economy....growing the country out of these huge annual deficits....they talk about it 24/7....creating jobs. But on the other side of the ledger, we have a government policy of shrinking the government....let's have a more limited government.....And that means less government jobs....more minus signs in the government jobs market....."
There is no contradiction. Government workers are over paid and get too many benefits real workers don't get.
Solution to keep jobs, cut non military/CIA/FBI government salaries 30% across the board until we have a balanced budget and a growing economy. Also eliminate double dip pensions and move all non military/CIA/FBI workers immediately to Social Security like the rest of us.
"...he simply hedged, took a middle of the road approach and did not call a bear market or he would have told you to get out of the market..."
But there's no denying he did lighten up by about 65% which beat the buy-and-hope crowd.
And please spare me all the stale details of the QQQ trade. Heard all that before.
People who followed Brinker were better off than those who simply sat on their portfolios.
The Libyan rebels fooled me (as well as Ghadaffi) and turned the futures and the market around this morning. Probably too soon to short...at least heavily, IMHO.
But if the rally continues, especially if on weak volume, I'm going in with saddles blazing! I just hope I don't get my caboose shot off!
People who followed Brinker were better off than those who simply sat on their portfolios.
I don't think this is a TRUE statement, unless you are using a narrow range of dates.
Are you implying this statement for 20 years? 10 years. 7.4 months? 3.6 hours on Feb 29th?
Are you cherry picking calls (as you already are hinting at with the QQQQ), or are you only counting good calls, but not misses?
What are your criteria for such a broad, INACCURATE statement?
Of course, I don't expect you to answer any of these with a clear, logical, TRUTHFUL reply.
"Are you implying this statement for 20 years?"
Of course not! I'm using the period of time where Brinker sidestepped the bear market, at least 65% out, v. buy and hope for the same period.
You should be able to see that if you were out of the market during that bear market you were better off than being in it.
Do I have to explain everything?
You should be able to see that if you were out of the market during that bear market you were better off than being in it.
But the point is the self proclaimed market timer Bob Brinker was NEVER out of the stock market in 2000, in fact the only time he was out of the market was for the YEARS when he MISSED the bull run after 1987.
Brinker never got out for 2000...and it seems the reason is becasue he totally blew the run up in stocks after the 87 debacle by sitting on the sidelines.
tfb
"Brinker never got out for 2000"
and whatever you had out Brinker crushed with the all in QQQ counter trend call.
Joey
"But the point is the self proclaimed market timer Bob Brinker was NEVER out of the stock market in 2000"
It's all or nothing with you. The fact remains that Brinker was MOSTLY (65%) out of the 2000 bear market and that beats those who stayed in the market.
Plain and simple.
This is old old information and I don't want to go through the whole silly exercise again.
People were better off following Brinker's advice at that time than if they had simply stayed fully invested.
anon whimpersYou should be able to see that if you were out of the market during that bear market you were better off than being in it.
OK, I see that. I can also see Russia from my window.
Now show me how you arrive at the exact date that you quit following brinker, and how you do that in advance?
Or are you saying that he should have been followed religiously since the 65%, with the multiple low point buy ins?
Exactly what are you saying, other than spinning your ass off?
It's all or nothing with you.
Uhh, that is what market timing is about! It is all or nothing.
Moreover by your logic 65% of those people's equity allocation are still siting in a money market fund...and have been for 11 years, or now are you going to say you only count his 50% or is it now 65% market exit around 2000 and then some cherry picking an entry point? I know{ I chose the S&P500 1450 buy point in his newsletter! - How does that one work out?
tfb
No matter how the pig and tfb try to spin it the simple fact remains.
BRINKER MOVED 65% OUT OF THE 2000 BEAR MARKET AND IF YOU TOOK THAT ADVICE, YOU ARE AHEAD OF THE BUY-AND-HOLDERS.
It doesn't matter if he made another call, missed the latest bear market or whatever.
Brinker's one correct bear market call puts him ahead of those who simply did nothing and rode the bear market all the way down as I suspect both pig and tfb did.
I don't know why that's so hard for you to admit.
I don't know why that's so hard for you to admit.
Because it is asinine logic. You select one semi-kind-of-maybe call he made and ignore the rest of his record.
It also totally ignores taxes. And no you will argue that material fact is immaterial also - LOL!
According to your logic you need a buddy on the psychic friends network who could tell you what advice to take of Brinker's and what advice to ignore. Also taxes are never a concern in never-never land.
You really should call in the show, you could thank Bob for making you money and then go on to explain how you ignored his advice and that was the reason you have any money left at all. There is always a pattern to those calls, they thank Bob and then describe how the ignored his advice. It is like bizarro-world.
tfb
If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Simple as that.
Anonymous said...
If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Simple as that.
Yes unless you got out of the market because you predicted a bear market that didn't materialize. I believe Bob did just that earlier in his career.
"If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Simple as that."
Absolutely...unless you don't stop there and soon afterward tell your subscribers to put most of their cash into an ill-fated, counter-trend QQQ trade with no exit strategy, and then let it drop from the 80's to under 20.
That's not simple, that's being a simpleton, IMHO, of course.
If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down. Simple as that.
If you miss 2 bear markets you are even better off, and if you miss 3 out of 3 bear markets, you have a watermelon smile.
That's so simple, even you might get it.
Are you feeling a little light headed today? I think your brain has leaked out of one of the holes in it. HTH
Of course. Now it all makes sense.
The radio appearances during the wee hours with Doug McIntyre. The shameless selling of products (just enter the code word Brinker)
during Moneytalk.
The next time you can't sleep and are channel surfing at 1:30 AM, don't be suprised when you land on Court TV and see Mr B hawking Ginsu knives, vegetable slicers, and his Marketholder newsletter.
Just wait.
I got the feeling from this Sundays show Bob was saying no recession so stay the course. I thought Cramers call on CNBC this morning was something when the Dow open up 190 he was screaming sell the rally. Cramer seems to be moving the markets.
If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Poppycock! Pure bull. Where do you come up with this. If you get out of the market and avoid a bear, you may avoid a little temporary pain but you also will not enjoy the ensuing bull market runs. You are assuming each bear wiped out all the gains (including dividends). And then you have the effect of taxation which is a very significant issue.
Your claim is ridiculous, shows a very narrow scope of understanding and is foolish in the minority or the extreme. Simple as that.
But nice try.
tfb
http://allaboutchuba.blogspot.com/2011/08/youre-special-kind-of-stupid-pic.html
You guys have done a terrific job today of keeping the Bob Brinker spin under control.
When I read that some "anonymous" person said that Brinker called bears, I groaned out loud. LOL!
Bob Brinker has never 100% called a bear market. But like Jeffchristie said, he predicted a bear that never happened AFTER the October 19, 1987 crash. He rode down Black Monday when the market lost over 22% in one day.
I remember that day well. I was still getting high on the Brinker Kool-Aid and hanging on his every word -- a dangerous thing to do.
He made a daytime guest appearance on KGO. He said don't sell then he went to 100% cash in January 1988.
He then missed out on a lot of market gains before he got back to fully invested in January 1991.
I got the feeling from this Sundays show Bob was saying no recession so stay the course.
Don't you think it would be better if he simply said that? He is suppose to be a market timer for gosh sakes, that means, get in the market, get out of the market, leverage up, leverage down etc. It should not mean divine the tea leaves, interpret my words with a seer stone?
tfb
Jim said: "Today Brinker had me a bit confused when talking about government jobs. He seemed to complain that when the government sheds jobs it puts too much pressure on the private sector to create jobs. So what does he want, bigger government? Later he said he felt there should be a pay freeze for federal workers."
Jim,
Thanks for pointing out that contradiction. When your note arrived, I went back to that segment and transcribed what Bob Brinker said.
I agree, he seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. Complaining about big government spenders and yet almost whining about cuts in government jobs.
DanG said: "Some Sunday we should swamp the screener with market timing questions, so no one else can get through. He'd have to take a market call or do a 3-hour monologue!"
Dan,
Count me in! :)
I sold my holdings in NDG today - nice $1 per share profit over 5 days....
It will probably continue to do well, but I'm looking to get another buying opportunity to buy more AGQ.
Mr. Pig said: "I salute him for another brilliant marketing strategy."
Yes indeed! Brilliant!
Bob Brinker's marketing strategy is flawless. He can't "loose." He has his cake and eats it too -- something our moms told us we couldn't do. :)
For example: He simply stays fully invested and tells followers not to worry about those "noisy" corrections that go down 10% or 20%. Then if the bear actually hits, he simply says it was one of those pesky "exogenous event."
Right now, he is selling newsletters based on the hope that he will give out a "special bulletin" which will announce "it's safe to get back in the water."
Never mind that he has never issued any sell signals so subscribers (and listeners) don't have any cash to buy with.
And certainly never mind that in the last bear he repeatedly pronounced the market "attractive for purchase" at ever-lower levels.
You really can't make this stuff up. People would call you crazy.
Joey,
Even Bob Brinker's Suncor is continuing to drop. It closed at $29.14 today - well under Brinker's last buy price months ago.
And I notice that BNO that was so on fire has dropped drastically. I wonder if this all has to do with the slowing economy?
Joe Tong said: "BB mentioned 1%-2% slow growth the 2nd 1/2 of 2011; but he ended it there, without giving a prediction where the S&P500 is headed."
Joe,
Bob Brinker's Marketimer S&P target range has been low-to-mid 1400's since January.
Although, he has changed the time frame several times. At first, he said "in 2011." Now he simply says, "going forward."
“Honeybee said...Thanks for pointing out that contradiction. I agree, he (Brinker) seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. Complaining about big government spenders and yet almost whining about cuts in government jobs.”
=========================
In Brinker’s defense I can see how the emotions of 40 years (or so) of being involved in pressure filled market calls can make one a little crazy. His core belief about big government is probably much like the beliefs of most Americans, i.e., smaller government is better. But, as an equities investor and financial advisor, the huge amounts of money the government controls cannot be ignored out of hand. If you make investment calls based on a bet that the U.S. economy will grow and its citizens will prosper over the long run, then you will be happy the government is spending and expanding.
Hence the discrepancy and contradiction.
I said the market can make one a little crazy.
Like it or not, every company wants to sell their goods and services to Government agencies and every business of all sizes wants those high paid government employees to patronize their business.
I agree that he (Bob) needs to be more clear and concise. He has lost some of his touch as the years have mounted, but he still influences many people and has a loyal following.
I guess I’m the only one at this site that might from time to time defend Bob. There are a lot of smart people that blog here. Maybe someone can calculate how much equity earnings might suffer if there is an across the board 20% cut at all levels of government. Could it be this is the part of the equation that Bob has so much angst about? But Bob isn’t the only economist saying it’s too early in this frail economy to be slashing Government spending.
On a blue Monday, --Col. D Brewski
TFB said: "Oh yeah his famous 2000 bear call - LOL, let me see he got on the air and said, something like...well uh, how would you feel if the market when up 8% but you only enjoyed 4% of the uptick, but on the other hand if the market went down 20% you only lost 10%...and that folks was his great call that people now consider his bear market call...he simply hedged, took a middle of the road approach and did not call a bear market or he would have told you to get out of the market."
TFB,
Your recall is perfect. Indeed, all Brinker did was hedge. He did not even claim to be bearish until August of 2000, and that is when he raised his cash from 60% to 65%.
Of course, in October 2000, he forecast an imminent "counter-trend rally" which he said would be led by the Nasdaq.
That is when he sent the most infamous special bulletin of all: the "Act Immediately" bulletin.
Hello Liberty Pilgrim,
Haven't heard from you in a long time. Hope all is well. Do you want me to pay you to post here? :)
Birdbrain,
LOL! Do you actually think that Bob Brinker will start paying for those late night commercials?
It APPEARS that in addition to his infomercials during the program, he may be paying to actually do ads for Marketimer as he goes to break.
And he certainly was well paid for doing Doug's Red-Eye appearance. Doug touted Markettimer several times, but certainly nothing specific. Just general comments like, "it's a must read," which tickled my funny bone....
DanG said: "Absolutely...unless you don't stop there and soon afterward tell your subscribers to put most of their cash into an ill-fated, counter-trend QQQ trade with no exit strategy, and then let it drop from the 80's to under 20."
Your figures are exactly right, Dan. I just posted a comment where I referred to his "counter-trend rally" and the infamous "Act Immediately" bulletin.
Actually, Bob Brinker repeated that same buy-signal two more times. Then finally put those QQQQs on hold.
Then each month for almost 3 years, Brinker repeated his advice "for those holding QQQ shares" to hold. Finally, in March, 2003, he repeated that advice for the last time and never mentioned it again.
As far as Brinker's newsletter is concerned. the whole episode has been disguised and buried.
Col D. Brewski said: "I guess I’m the only one at this site that might from time to time defend Bob."
Oh my, Col., you need to go back and read all of the comments that are posted here today.
There are several dedicated to defending Bob Brinker. And they are welcome.
So are the ones that set the record straight when it gets crooked. :)
And I'm sorry that you haven't read any of my own comments over the years where I defend Bob Brinker's teaching skills, his good advice about learning to be your own financial advisor and his sense of humor, etc. I also think he is a master wordsmith with a nice voice.
Col. D Brewski
"I guess I’m the only one at this site that might from time to time defend Bob."
There quite a few posts from anonymous
defending Bob at this site. Are you admitting they are from you?
Here is one from earlier today:
Anonymous said...
If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Simple as that.
"There are a lot of smart people that blog here. Maybe someone can calculate how much equity earnings might suffer if there is an across the board 20% cut at all levels of government."
No one in Washington that I know of is advocating a 20% across the board cut. The most extreme plan I am aware of is a one year freeze in spending. The others are just reductions in the growth of spending,
" But Bob isn’t the only economist saying it’s too early in this frail economy to be slashing Government spending."
I didn't know that Bob Brinker was an economist. I thought he was a newsletter writer and radio entertainer.
"If you get out of the market and avoid a bear, you may avoid a little temporary pain but you also will not enjoy the ensuing bull market runs.... Your claim is ridiculous, shows a very narrow scope of understanding and is foolish in the minority or the extreme. Simple as that." TFB
LOL. Of course if you get out of the market and stay out forever you will not "enjoy the ensuing bull market runs"
In that case you didn't time the market, you liquidated your portfolio.
Why can't you understand that missing a bear market is better than riding one down?
Even your cohorts can see that because they claim...erroneously...that while Brinker did avoid the bear market, he gave it all back on the ill-fated OPTIONAL QQQ trade.
"If there are 3 bear markets and you manage to miss 1 of them you are ahead of those folks who rode all 3 bear markets down.
Simple as that."
[Dan]"Absolutely...unless you don't stop there and soon afterward tell your subscribers to put most of their cash into an ill-fated, counter-trend QQQ trade..."
Well thank you Dan. At least YOU understand that sidestepping a bear market is preferable to riding one all the way down. The Pig and tfg can't seem to grasp that idea.
And as you point out that OPTIONAL QQQ trade was disappointing but that was supposed to be purely a short term trade.
I suspect many folks didn't even play and some, like yourself for instance, played with a limited amount and tight stops. I believe you said your losses were minimal.
Others like the pig have said they lost more and I suspect even TFB may have made a little wager.
Anyway that was a purely OPTIONAL play and there is just no way to quantify what effect it MAY have had on individual subscribers.
Anon, yes I do want to sidestep any bear market I can. I think most folks would, too.
Sticking with stocks in a bear market to avoid paying capital gains tax is ridiculous in my view when you consider the tax is about 15% of your gains, but a bear can wipe out over 50% of your entire capital.
Of course the problem is identifying a bear market, and obviously not everyone can do that. But I try to do so by watching certain indicators I have found helpful in the past. I've explained them here before.
One is the monthly MACD, which will once again be calculated at the end of this month. I don't think it will be pretty, judging from the daily and weekly MACDs of the indexes lately.
There are other things to watch: moving averages and chart patterns are two of them.
Fortunately I have all my assets in tax deferred accounts, so selling does not cost anything in taxes. But even if it did, I'd not ride down a bear market if I could help it.
Why can't you understand that missing a bear market is better than riding one down?
Because it is not true.
In order for your supposition to be correct you need two more things:
1) you need to identify entry point, so you need to be correct twice, once on the exit and second on the entry
2) You need to make sure that the delta between entry and exit exceeds the tax penalty incurred when selling and any transaction costs.
And once again, Brinker never avoided a bear - ever! 35-50% was devoured by the bear because he never got out of the market!
Anon cries some more The Pig and tfg can't seem to grasp that idea.
What I do grasp, Anon, is your ability to bring up the past and the hot qqqq button when we should be discusiing Brinker's current FAILURE to sidestep the decline. Ain't that remarkable how you always manage to do that?
Is "retired in Prescott" coming up next?
Brinker BLEW IT A WHILE AGO WITH 3 OR 4 ENTRIES AND LOST BIG BUCKS, AND BRINKER JUST LOST BIG TIME AGAIN THIS MONTH. LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT, OK?
WANNA TALK ABOUT JUNIOR'S BOND FUND THAT INCLUDES STOCKS? HOW'S HE DOIN? LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.
I suggest that you take your "1 sidestep: and shove it sideways.
"Sticking with stocks in a bear market to avoid paying capital gains tax is ridiculous in my view when you consider the tax is about 15% of your gains, but a bear can wipe out over 50% of your entire capital."
Of course Dan, and for tfb to criticize Brinker for not showing tax consequences is also ridiculous!
NO newsletter writer or any other financial pundit EVER shows tax consequences because it is IMPOSSIBLE.
Everybody's tax situation is different and to apply some generic one size fits all tax number to a newsletter portfolio is not only futile but dangerously misleading.
But tfb and the Pig can't seem to realize that either!
It would sure be helpful if those who are posting as anonymous would create a name for yourself, or sign your posts.
All you have to do is click on "name" in the posting window and enter something. We don't care what you call yourself...
More whimpering But tfb and the Pig can't seem to realize that either!
BLAH BLAH BLAH.....BLAH BLAH
What you can't seem to realize, Anon, who is becoming QQQQuite borrrring and repetitious is........
"What has Brinker and/or Brinker done for you lately?"
You cry the most about how the past is not important, so why are you living there when it comes to Brinker?
Are you STUCK ON STOOOPID?
The QQQ trade was NO OPTIONAL for these folks who had their money at the BJ Group.
http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/BB/2000_1019_BJG_QQQ_Memo.jpg
Thanks for reminding us that Bob Brinker's BJ Group bought those Q's for their fee-based clients:
BJG_QQQ Memo
Since the pig and tfb cannot refute the fact that Brinker did largely sidestep the 2000 bear market they turn their attacks to yelling...what has Brinker done LATELY, what about taxes, etc etc etc.
Sure, Brinker missed the last bear market as did a lot of folks. So what?
The fact is, he called at least one of the past three bear markets and therefore his subscribers managed to save a large portion of their portfolios.
I'm getting tired of this old and boring rehash of Brinker bashing rhetoric.
The Fluky Hog
HB, I see AGQ is down almost $12, is this a good time to buy?
AGQ? Is it a buy on this dip this morning? I'm not going to buy more this morning, but remember that I still have half of my original position.
But if you truly believe that silver is headed higher (like I do) along with gold, and are willing (and able) to ride out the gut-wrenching volatility, then it might be a buying opportunity -- sorry I can't be of more help.
Here's an interesting article from Seeking Alpha:
"While the markets may be breathing a sigh of relief with the Dow up 37 points on Monday, gold and silver are signaling more problems await the global financial system. On Monday, gold and silver continued to rally after last week’s impressive gains. Furthermore, Citigroup and Hugo Chavez continue to fuel precious metals higher.
Bank of America , which has its own collapse to be concerned about, voiced concerns about the overall condition of the economy. The bank said, “Rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy. In our view, the pressure to do something is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy.” It appears that Bank of America is expecting Ben Bernanke to deliver another hail-mary this Friday at the Jackson Hole Conference.
Check Out: Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold?
With declining confidence in financial markets, Citigroup has finally decided to increase its gold price targets for 2012 and 2013. The bank said, “Increased global risk, U.S. Dollar weakness, growing inflationary fears, the U.S. debt downgrade, and continuing sovereign debt risks in Europe have increased investor appetite for gold, triggering recent price strength.” Citigroup now sees gold prices of $1,650 per ounce for 2012, and $1,500 per ounce for 2013. Previously, it projected gold at $1,325 for 2012, and $1,225 per ounce for 2013. Although the price targets increased, Citigroup is already in danger of missing targets as gold futures for December delivery settled at $1,891 on Monday.
Last week, Hugo Chavez announced that he is nationalizing the entire gold industry of Venezuela. Now, Bloomberg reports the central bank of Venezuela has sent a statement via email requesting its 99 tons of gold holdings from the Bank of England. Venezuela’s move to take delivery of physical gold may be the beginning of another huge rally in precious metals. As we discussed in a previous article, physical gold demand is growing among investors. However, with gold gaining 6% last week, and silver soaring 8%, investors should be cautious of a short-term pullback in the precious metals.
Gold and Silver Are Souring Amidst Global Fears
ANON concludes since everyone is laughing at him: Sure, Brinker missed the last bear market as did a lot of folks. So what?
SO WHAT? (((ROAR)))
So send him $185 so you can sidestep a bear from 11 years ago. DUH???
Are you trying out for SNL?
"The QQQ trade was NO OPTIONAL for these folks who had their money at the BJ Group."
Good point, Jeff! You are so right!
Those poor folks who thought they would only be invested in mutual funds got hammered when he put them into that QQQ trade! Boy, would I have been P.O.d if I had money in that managed account!
The market is rallying pretty strongly from it's extremely oversold position.
Could this actually be a "retest" of the lows? Sure it could. And if so, it could make it to, and even through Dow 11,500.
But past 12,000? With all that overhanging resistance there? And with the 50-day MA crossing down through the 200-day at that level? I don't think so!
But I'll sit here and wait for awhile longer. If we soon become overbought, that may well be the time to step into the short side of the market again...IMHO of course. Not a recommendation! I don't get paid for that kind of headache!
LOL Dan....And here I was going to offer you a raise. :)
Anon wrote:
The fact is, he called at least one of the past three bear markets and therefore his subscribers managed to save a large portion of their portfolios.
Unfortunately you are only looking at one event and ignoring the other event that others have mentioned. That being in the late 80's when Brinker advised going to 100% cash. At that time a buy and holder would have done far better than one following Brinker. I feel these two events cancel each other out. Thus over the past 25 years there is no evidence that Brinker's marketiming has done any better than buy and hold.
"Unfortunately you are only looking at one event and ignoring the other event that others have mentioned. That being in the late 80's when Brinker advised going to 100% cash."
Of course you're right Jim but I usually don't go back more than about 25 years or so to bash Brinker. You have to cut it off somewhere.
But thanks for your insight. Are you still a subscriber or just a faithful listener?
The Fluky Hog
Fluky Hog says he doesn't go back more than 25 years to "bash" Brinker.
Well, gee Fluky, that's mighty nice of you considering that the big guy himself touts his model portfolio performance back to 1988.
Wonder why he doesn't tout them back to 1987? Could it be because Elaine Garzarelli (one of the women that Brinker loves to hate) saw Black Monday coming and had her followers in cash, but Brinker didn't?
Portfolio I
($20,000 value on 1-1-88)..$286,390
Portfolio II ($20,000 value on 1-1-88)....$235,517
Did you know that both of those portfolios are still worth considerably less than they were four years ago -- before HE MISSED ANOTHER big bear?
Oh my, what will he do if the market doesn't do some fast recovery before August 31? :)
The fact is, he called at least one of the past three bear markets and therefore his subscribers managed to save a large portion of their portfolios.
The fact is he also missed a great bull run after he jumped out in 1987. That is what I keep trying to tell you, you have to get it right a minimum of twice, an exit point and an entry point. Brinker has failed on both.
tfb
Update on Bob Brinker's 2000 QQQ Advice as of Tuesday, August 23, 2011
The last time Bob Brinker recommended reducing equities was in the summer of 2000 when he increased his 60% cash position to 65% of the total portfolio in P1 and P2.
Brinker told his audience to stay in money fund at Vanguard to be liquid for "trading opportunities" .
On October 16, 2000 Bob Brinker sent a special subscriber bulletin via email urging them to "Act Immediately" and put up to 50% of their cash reserves into the NASDAQ 100 index via QQQ for a trade he expected would occur quickly and end in 2 to 4 months
You can see an actual copy of the special bulletin HERE.
When the rally in QQQ failed to materialize as predicted, Brinker decided to NOT include this in his model portfolios when he published his November Marketimer newsletter dated November 6.
The odd thing was he continued to recommend the investment in his newsletter until the QQQs lost about half their value, falling to the $40s, where he said to "hold for future recovery" and never mentioned the trade again in his newsletter!
Our critics point out he covered QQQ under "INDIVIDUAL ISSUES" where he listed them as a HOLD since June 6, 2001 when he wrote "For subscribers with a position in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding these shares for future recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines.
If you followed Brinker's advice to buy the QQQ shares any time following the October 16th bulletin until he stopped recommending QQQ for up to 50% of cash reserves, the top price you could have paid was $87.87 on Oct 20, 2000
From Yahoo! QQQ from Oct 10 to Nov 1, 2000
Today QQQ is $52.28 which is down 40.5% from $87.87, the highest QQQ was while Brinker was recommeding it for up to 50% of cash reserves.
That's a funny one HM. Did you know The Princess of Wink as Brinker called her, totally blew that call:
...Elaine Garzarelli successfully called the “Black Monday” crash of 1987 but remained bearish thereafter while the markets went up. To get back into stocks and the market, the reentry points were much higher than if investors had merely stayed in the market and held their positions during the crash...
Another time she sent telegrams to her subscribers telling them to sell and yet the bear never came. Blew that one too.
She's a lousy example of a market timer.
http://www.mistakesintrading.com/wiki-stocks/implications-of-technical-analysis-for-investors.php
The Fluky Hog
Well, the market sure did some fast recovery today! The Dow was up over 300 points and on good volume! Could it be a solid re-test of the lows? Sure it could! Is it? I'll have to reserve judgement for that!
I was tempted all day long to short the market. But to short when the index' stochastic was totally oversold, and to buy SDS when the stochastic was totally overbought seemed the height of folly. So I refrained, and lucky for me that I did!
Just watching from the sidelines for now...and happy to be there in 100% cash.
Dan
We had a follow through day today.
IBD website video says we're in a confirmed uptrend now but they sound a bit tentative about it saying several of these signals have failed recently.
You're right, Kirk! But hardly within the optimum 4-7 day window, to be sure! They have played a little "loosey goosey" lately with their "follow-through" day proclamations, and it does look suspect to me.
Apparently the futures folks aren't convinced either, with the Dow futures down substantially. I'll have to say I'm from Missouri on this one! I hope they're right, but I'm not betting on it just yet!
bob comment aobout the market being volatile is another way of saying he doesn't know where the market is going.
Pete
Pete, you're probably right. But these days it's hard for anybody to know where this market is going!
Neither bull nor bear right now, but 100% chicken! The futures were down substantially last night, then reversed due to a semi-positive durable goods report, and now have turned a bit lower.
It's against my religion to trade a market like this, being a devout coward! I'll leave the trading for now to those who "know" what to do!
OK, I admit this market has legs! Up strongly on good volume. I'm still VERY suspicious long term, but short term a few bucks might be made on the long side...if very nimble and with close stops.
So, into SSO sloooowly I shall go, with a close stop and extreme vigilance. God, I hate this!
"...but short term a few bucks might be made on the long side...if very nimble and with close stops..."
But Dan, I thought you were waiting for a bounce so you could SHORT the market and now you're going LONG?
This bounce notwithstanding, your long term view of the market continues to be negative and you continue to be on the sidelines and bearish for the long term. Is that correct?
Anon,
Yes, I'm pretty convinced that the long term indicator I watch closely will turn bearish at the end of this month.
But very short term there seems to be a little money to be made on the long side, given the momentum of this move. But nimbleness is of utmost importance, and probably the best move is NO move.
I will probably have to exit small long postition soon...or wait until stops take me out. Decisions, decisions! I shudda stayed in bed this morning!
It’s the best reality show going. I hardly ever spend this much time viewing blog posts. Normally I’d be watching John Stewart or Steven Colbert I Tevoed the night before. But the play by play market timing announcements by DanG has intrigued me. He is tearing himself apart vacillating between doubt and fear and elation. Why does he do it? Or, is it just an act. Is he really as clever as he lets on? I’d love to see a synopsis of his trading history. Honeybee has high regards for DanG’s trading ability, he must have made tons for himself. I want to know more about DanG. Is he a day trader or has he graduated to being a nano-second trader? Since DanG is doing a play by play broadcast, let me get my score sheet up to speed. I guess that DanG is fully in cash? He is waiting for a market move up? This will give him a signal to catch a wave and ride it up to new highs? Or, he is waiting for a failed rally (dead cat bounce), which he will short. Wow, my head is spinning?
I need help. How is DanG playing Bernanke / Jackson Hole announcement? How is DanG playing Obama’s post Labor Day policy/strategy announcement? I guess those events have no place in a “day trader’s” agenda.
Dang me, dang me / They oughta take a rope and hang me / High from the highest tree / Woman would you weep for me. -------------------Roger Miller.
Having a little fun, Col. D Brewski
Col D. Brewski
LOL! I see that you have succumbed to Dan's charm.
Yes, I think VERY HIGHLY of Dan's trading ability, and I really enjoy knowing what he is thinking about the market - which many times, reflects my own thoughts.
BUT! He is not in any way obliged to explain ANYTHING about himself to you or anybody.
He has clearly stated, like I have about myself, that you should do your own due diligence.
Neither of us sell our market musings, like the Bob Brinker's do.
LOL, Brewski!
OK, I tried the long side this morning because the momentum was up...for awhile. Not my best move and I sold out promptly for a small (very!) loss, even before my stop was activated.
Day trading is normally not my forte. Once in awhile, though, when the opportunity like that 400 point drop comes along, I venture in and take out a bundle. That's my "secret" if there is one...take large profits and small losses. It has served me well for many years, more than I care to admit to!
With majority of cash, I'm very conservative, having moved it all from OAKBX to their MMF months back. You know, "sell in May"! That has worked out great so far.
With my trading account I'm a little more speculative. I follow a few indicators: Moving Averages, MACD, chart patterns, and Stochastics. That's pretty much it, for what it's worth...not much, eh? Well, that's why I charge so little!
Ground Zero is shorting the bond market here. A lot of people have tried that over the past few years.
They all say that interest rates have to go up soon. And they all lose.
Brewski admits:
"I need help."
That is a good first step.
Ground Zero is shorting the bond market here.
I'm not familiar with a Ground Zero person here. Is he one of the ANONS?
What ID does he use to post? TIA
Was Roger Miller a Market Timer subscriber?
From the song, King of the Road:
"Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let...fifty cents.
No phone, no pool, no pets
I ain't got no cigarettes
Ah, but..two hours of pushin' broom
Buys an eight by twelve four-bit room
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road..."
-- Frankj
Ground Zero has numerous posts over on SI boards..He zigs and zags by the minute over there. Claims to have a successful model and some back up that claim over there. Do not follow too closely- mostly for entertainment. If you ask me, I imagine he has smoked his share of "crooked camels" in his day!
FrankJ that was an awesome post. I love it...
tfb
Ground Zero has numerous posts over on SI boards
Why are you discussing him over here? I don't get it.
I get the impression that you don't follow him, that you don't like him, and that you don't know him.
Did he do anything to you? Does he talk about you at SI?
Hey Pig--
Did you know that Pink Floyd talks about you??
Big man, pig man, ha ha charade you are.
You well heeled big wheel, ha ha charade you are.
And when your hand is on your heart,
You're nearly a good laugh,
Almost a joker,
With your head down in the pig bin,
Saying "Keep on digging."
Pig stain on your fat chin.
What do you hope to find.
When you're down in the pig mine.
You're nearly a laugh,
You're nearly a laugh
But you're really a cry.
OH MY GOODNESS, anon!
Have I upset you again?
Whatta nerd.
Have you ever considered getting a life?
The market opened stong this morning, so now it is down strong. Oh c'mon now, you didn't expect something different, did you?
Well,if you did, just wait a few minutes and you'll probably get your wish! A day trader's heaven! An investor's hell!
The market is pretty crazy, but here's what I see right now.
The Dow's daily MACD has just turned positive--a good sign.
The Stochastic oscillator has moved up from oversold, but has not reached overbought yet--also a good sign.
Probably not enough to go long, but not ready to be shorted yet, either, IMHO.
So here's my considered opinion: It can go either way! So no position is a position--and that's my position!
Anonymous said...
Hey Pig--
Did you know that Pink Floyd talks about you??.....
Now that's a funny post Anon even if the pig doesn't like it. LOL
Kudos to you.
Floyd Fan
Anon telling Anon how funny he is.
Mmmmmmm?
Can anybody make this crap up?
Frankj:
Might be time for the Anons to take their meds and get "Comfortably Numb."
The "flag" pattern in the DJIA appears to have morphed into a triange. But it still has the same significance, since triangles are usually continuation patterns rather than reversals.
The measuremen of the pattern, if it flys at "half-mast" would be to the Dow 9,500 area if/when it breaks down out of the pattern.
Of course if it breaks out upwards (unlikely, but possible) it will be one of those rare occasions where a triangle does become a reversal pattern. Until the breakout occurs, patience is in order in my opinion. Pioneers usually wind up with arrows in their behinds!
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