Bob Brinker did not host Moneytalk today. Lynn Jimenez filled in for him. She is a business reporter for KGO810 radio.
Honey's STOCK MARKET CORRECTION DATA:
* Dow = down 6.71% from April 29th closing high.
* S&P 500 Index = down 6.8% from April 29th closing high.
* Nasdaq = down 8% from April 29th closing high.
Jimenez reported the latest market closing numbers and a brief rundown of some of the latest news. She devoted portions of the program to marriage counseling for soon-to-be-weds, being sure that one of your parents doesn't give away your inheritance to a new "significant other," and looking out for your parent's finances as they get "older."
JIMENEZ INVESTING PRINCIPLES: Jimenez said: "I have my own principles of investing. Keep it simple, keep it cheap, keep it balanced, keep it invested."
Honey EC: Bob Brinker's latest market-timing fiasco was exposed by a caller on the radio show today. Jimenez made a giant effort to control the caller and cover-up (make excuses) for Bob Brinker. It was a very interesting conversation. I present it here in its entirety:
Caller Mark from Mountain View, CA said: "I have a question about financial advise. If you had followed someone's recommendations over the past four years who completely missed the bear market of 2008, '09, would you be inclined to stay with that person or perhaps move on?"
Jimenez replied: "That is a good question, it really is, because just about everybody got blindsided by the big sell-off. In hindsight, it's easy to say, that, how could you miss. But I don't think that many advisors understood what was happening in the mortgage securities, or really got what was happening in the mortgage market. Dishonesty was rampant through the homeowners, the mortgage brokers, real estate lenders, assessors, the banks that bundled securities, the banks that made the loans. I mean it was just a mess. Then we have MERS, which is kinda the bank's ad hoc, hey we don't want to go through the county appraisers and assessors or county offices to file deeds. We're just gonna handle them all ourselves and who really owns them. It was a hidden mess. Then when Bear Stearns went and Lehman went, it took the whole house of cards with them. So when you talk about bad advice, maybe you should be a little more specific with me because if they simply had you invested and you lost a lot of money, I'd say you had a lot of company. But Mark, was there specific bad advice that really hurt you?"
Mark replied: "Sadly, I'm talking about Mr. Brinker, who advised buying the market at S&P 1400 just before the huge sell-off. And being down about 16% still."
Jimenez said: "The S&P has regained about 88%, so you're about right in there...I don't think that the depth of the sell-off in the market was something that anyone anticipated. And that's what usually happens when you have a crisis, Mark....I don't know what you did, did you hang on during the sell-off or did you sell at the low?
Mark said: "I sold some, but I still followed Mr. Brinker's advice to hold on. In fact, he recommended to buy more as the market was going down, 1400, 1200 and that didn't work out too well."
Jimenez interrupted: "But you're back up, as I said, 88% on the S&P."
Mark said: "No....."
Jimenez interrupted again: "Awright. So my question for you is this, when you have a sell-off as deep as you did, if you sell at the low you're never going to make it back. If you hang on, you have to be really, really patient. I just read something that was in the New York Times.....There was a study that showed that over the last 40 years.....that people made money only when they held ubber long, meaning 20 years. You don't make money on the market if you hold for five years. You can, but it's not guaranteed."
After the break, Jimenez asked Mark: "What do you want?"
Mark replied: "I understand Mr. Brinker is still recommending to stay fully invested of course, to recoup the previous losses that he was blindsided by. But myself, I'm currently 20% stock, 80% fixed income because I think a double-dip at this point is unavoidable. High unemployment......"
Jimenez interrupted again: "Mark, Mark, Mark.....If that's what you're comfortable with, then that's what you have to do. You are the one who has to sleep at night. Now I'll tell you. I was always diversified. I always had cash, bonds, stocks, and I left it that way.....Because I was diversified enough, where I didn't have really heavily weighted one way or the other. Perhaps I was a little underweight in stocks by what I should have been. As a business reporter, I try not to do too much with anything. I just kinda put it in there and let it go. I don't want to have it influence my reporting. Yes, I lost a lot too when the market went down. I've been sitting tight and waiting and it does come back up. If your opinion is that we are going into a double-dip - mine is that we are not. Mine is that we are in a soft patch...."
Honey EC: If you take Lynn Jimenez at face value, you would have to conclude that she does not know that Bob Brinker is a MARKET-TIMER. She seems to have no clue that Bob Brinker's claim-to-fame is "market-timing," or that he sells a newsletter titled "Marketimer." She may not even know that he is currently bragging about his LATEST buy signal, while hiding all the others he issued during the bear market. As Mark said, Brinker's advice was to buy at S&P mid-1400's at the October 2007 all-time-high and in January 2008. Here are Brinker's ever-lower Marketimer buy-signals:
As for Jimenez excusing Bob Brinker for missing the 2008-2009 mega-bear by claiming that "just about everybody got blind-sided," that is RIDICULOUS! There were many that don't even claim to be market-timers who did not get blind-sided. A few come to mind: Larry Swedroe (as documented in my archived Brinker Blog). And Elaine Garzarelli, as documented on NBR by Paul Kangas who said: "On your last visit with us in early August, you were correctly bearish on the stock market..." (transcript documented at Kirk Lindstrom's website). And here are several as reported by Mark Hulbert, Barron's in October, 2008:January 4, 2008, S&P @ 1411: Mid-1400'sFeb 10, 2008 S&P @ 1331: Low-1300'sAug 5, 2008 S&P @ 1285: 1240 or lessSept 2, 2008 S&P @ 1282: Low-to-mid 1200'sSeptember 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)January 2009 S&P @ 931: “ bear market bottom range of 750 to 850.February 1, 2009 S&P @ 825 “low-to-mid 800’s" (S&P dropped another 25% to 677 in March before hitting bottom)July 1, 2010: S&P @ 1078: "1030."
- Cabot Market Letter: Bearish. Editor Timothy Lutts currently has some 92% of this letter's model portfolio invested in cash.
- Chartist. Bearish: Editor Dan Sullivan turned bearish on the stock market in mid January of this year, and has remained so ever since. He continues to recommend a 100% money market fund position.
- Growth Fund Guide. Bearish: Editor Walter Rouleau continues to believe that the investment markets over the next several years will be dominated by a trend away from financial assets such as stocks and towards inflation hedges such as gold and other hard assets. Rouleau's model portfolios currently have an average equity allocation that is 33% long.
- Timer Digest: Bearish: Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top ten based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bearish, with 1 bull, 7 bears, and 2 neutral. His consensus of the top ten for performance over the last two years is bearish, with all ten newsletters bearish. However, in his latest issue, dated October 6, Schmidt wrote: "The deeper the financial markets fall, the greater the inevitable rally will be and the longer the new bull market will last. Meanwhile, it has been said that the average investor is currently behaving like a deer in the head lights during this crisis." The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 90% invested in stocks, on average.
- Vantage Point: Bearish: Editor John Harris wrote in his October issue, published earlier this week: "On balance, the economy and earnings growth are expected to be weak for the foreseeable future. On the plus side, the price of energy has fallen substantially and inflation has become less of a threat. The long-term moving averages, which define the long-term trend, are bearish for the major averages. Risk levels are such that a defensive 50% to 70% cash allocation is warranted." (However, Hulbert reported Bob Brinker as bullish)
- Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early October, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the stock market will return to an uptrend within six months of the start of the next economic recovery. Although the timing of the recovery is uncertain, our view is that it could be underway by next spring. If that scenario unfolds, we could be looking at a stock market turnaround beginning in this year's fourth quarter. This bear market decline has been accompanied by an extraordinary flow of negative financial news, but we are focused on stock market recovery in 2009 as investors go through the process of discounting economic recovery prospects in advance of an improved economic outlook." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.
Jimenez' guest-speaker was Allen Holdsworth, a former farmer who now teaches investing. Jimenez said that he wasn't there to sell anything, but the website she mentioned seemed to have plenty for sale. I'm not going to put the link here because as I was checking it out, my anti-virus program sounded an alarm. If you want it, just Google his name and "better investing."
Holdsworth and Jimenez discussed day trading vs investing. Holdsworth does not use technical analysis and does not trade stocks. Jimenez said she did not consider stock trading as investing.
Jimenez asked Holdworth if there was ever a time when he advocates getting out of the market entirely.
Holdsworth replied: "I never have. I know listening earlier, one of your other callers (referring to Mark's call) said, you know, he (Bob Brinker) can't time the market. You don't know what the market is going to do short-term. And that's the problem.
Jimenez said: "That's right."
Honey EC: So Holdsworth joined the ranks of many others who say no one can time the market, and he actually seemed to use that to justify Brinker's blunder. You can't make this stuff up!!! LOL!
Moneytalk on demand and to go with Bob Brinker, is available for FREE audio/podcasting at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker. (The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots.) If you don't download it from KGO within seven day, it's available at bobbrinker.com by paid subscription. KGO Radio Sunday Archives
If you want to listen to Mark's call, he is the first caller of the day, about 1:20pm. Mark, if you read this blog, please send some comments. We'd love to hear from you.
45 comments:
Why does this guy have such a hard time showing up for his own show?
John,
That's a good question. One would have hoped that when Bob Brinker reduced his program down to one day a week that he would be able to handle that okay.
Actually when you think about it, the program is only 2 hours long and then he has a guest-speaker for the third hour.
Perhaps those repeated Marketimer ads he did last week stoked the family coffers so much that he can afford to work every other week now.
Lynn Jimenez filled in two weeks ago also. She's an excellent business reporter and speaks perfect Spanish, but I often question the advice that she hands out.
.
John: BB is practicing what he preached a long time ago, the concept of "retiring in place."
You'd have to have been a listener some years back because he hasn't talked about it for years ... for good reason, it is a risky strategy these days.
In a nutshell, I guess it means having a job that you can put on autopilot mode most of the time. You hang around for the $$, the benefits, the 401K, etc.
It could also apply to a gig like his where you simply tell the radio people that you'll do your show only 3 weeks out of 4 and if they don't like it they can pound sand.
I was all set for a third hour interview with Gretchen Morgenson today, author of a new book on "what went wrong." Maybe that will have to wait.
-- Frankj
FrankJ,
LOL!!!!! You hit that nail right on the head! I recall Brinker waxing on about that "retiring on the job" stuff too. Wasn't there a book about it that he was touting?
I too, was also looking forward to an interview with Gretchen Morgenson.
I was just SUURE that Bob Brinker would want to air her views and talk about her book: "Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon"
.
Since the stock market has s declined 6 consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak in 8 years perhaps Brinker thought this would be a good time to take another week off. I'm sure at times like this a lot of people call his program to ask about the market. We all know of course that he refuses those calls. I would be very curious to know how many times his screener must tell callers "I'm sorry but Bob is not taking calls about the stock market." Since the gains he has been talking about several times this year are about gone perhaps he is hoping the streak will be broken this week so he can return to the program under more favorable conditions.
Yet again, Bob's Moneytalk wasn't broadcast on KABC in Los Angeles. When they brought Bob's show back some time ago at 5:00 p.m. he was pre-empted by LA Dodger games quite a bit. KABC then moved him to 7:00 p.m. but even on days like today when there is no ball game being broadcast, he isn't on but a Chef show is on. Bob hasn't been on the air on KABC for quite a while now. I wonder if they dropped him again?
Rob
Pasadena, CA
She's an excellent business reporter
Do you have actual evidence of this? I admit I have never heard her report a thing> However judging her business acumen based on the plebeian understanding of business, economics and fiance she espouses on Da Brink's show I would suspect she is a horrible business reporter. It seems obvious she does not have a firm understanding of the predicates needed to make intelligent sense of business related news.
And I would also suspect her liberal personal bias creeps in as she certainly gives it free rain on Da Brink's show.
Sorry but I just have trouble imagining a person who supports socialized medicine, believes that the banks should be forced to work with mortgage deadbeats, and actually preaches the mantra of more and more education could be a good business reporter.
But I could be wrong,
tfb
Larry Swedroe is NOT a market timer and says trying to time the market is about as useless as trying to pick individual stocks.
"Now I want to address the fallacy of market timing and why information is not enough for making investment decisions.
As to trying to time the market, take a look at the historical evidence. If you are thinking about getting out until things are clear again, consider that the evidence on market timing is even WORSE than on stock selection.
Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest says his data backs up his 80/20 rule: 80 percent of market timers fail over any reasonable period of time. I don’t like those odds. Neither should you."
ALL of those market timing gurus, including Brinker, in the Hulbert Article failed to beat the market over an extended period of time.
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/the-advice-remains-the-same-adventures-in-market-timing/227/
Honey
Thank you for transcribing Mark's call. I can't get Moneytalk on the radio where I live. I listen on the internet and don't get everything that is said. For the people who want to listen to the actual call at the KGO archives or on Moneytalk on demand, I recommend they listen to the next two callers as well. They were entertaining. John in San Francisco ask Lynn about the "End of America" video that is available on the internet. Lynn said let me stop you there. The man responsible for it was fined 1.5 million dollars for securities fraud. He pushes penny stocks. The third caller of the day was Dan from Des Moines. His method of making money in the stock market is quite different from Lynn's. He closes out his positions at the end of the day. The call got quite combative. Dan said: "You will hang up on me". It ended with Lynn saying: "I have had it now".
Doubledip said: "Larry Swedroe is NOT a market timer and says trying to time the market is about as useless as trying to pick individual stocks."
Doubledip,
Perhaps you missed this in my summary? I wrote: "There were many that don't even claim to be market-timers who did not get blind-sided. A few come to mind: Larry Swedroe (as documented in my archived Brinker Blog).
Swedroe did realize the market had turned bearish early on in 2008 when he was Bob Brinker's guest on Moneytalk.
Brinker repeatedly hammered Swedroe and the "bad news bears" for a couple of weeks afterwards. Very classy.
.
Jim said: "Since the gains he has been talking about several times this year are about gone perhaps he is hoping the streak will be broken this week so he can return to the program under more favorable conditions.
Jim,
AHA! I think the man has hit on something here. It makes perfect sense.
May 1st was the last time that Bob Brinker talked about the "gains for the year." This is from my May 1st summary:
"STOCK MARKET: Bob Brinker reported that the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded at the 2011 high of 12,810 on Friday's close.....S&P 500 at 2011 high of 1363.63 -- total return of 9% year-to-date, including dividends."
But since then, all he has done is "Ground hog Day" reporting the numbers - if anything. Such as this from my May 15th summary:
Honey EC: Another Bob Brinker stock and bond market Ground-Hog Day. :) Brinker is still fully invested and recommending dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market. He predicts that the S&P 500 Index will reach the low-to-mid 1400's range over the next 12 months."
.
Rob said:"Bob hasn't been on the air on KABC for quite a while now. I wonder if they dropped him again?"
Hi Rob,
Well, considering how they seem to have little respect for the program, it wouldn't be surprising if they did drop the program altogether.
Of course, you can listen online or download the programs for free (for seven days after broadcast) at KGO810. I have the link posted at the bottom of the summary.
.
"Swedroe did realize the market had turned bearish early on in 2008 when he was Bob Brinker's guest on Moneytalk."
Swedroe may have seemed bearish but he NEVER changes his investing philosophy based on bull or bear market expectations.
Swedroe is, and always has been, a buy and holder.
What good is it to be bearish on the market if you don't plan to do anything about it?
Swedroe says:
"...my advice will continue to be the same, unless compelling evidence, published in peer reviewed academic journals, demonstrates that there is a superior alternative strategy. Until then, my advice remains: buy, hold, rebalance and stay the course."
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/the-advice-remains-the-same-defensive-strategies-wont-protect-you/230/
Jeffchristie,
Thanks for the briefing on those two calls. I too, found them quite entertaining.
I recommend that everyone download and listen to at least the first hour of the program.
.
Doubledip,
Why repeat yourself? I am not disagreeing with you about Larry Swedroe. But the fact is, he recognized the bear market while Bob Brinker was still hollering "buy, buy, buy."
My point was that Lynn Jiminez was either clueless or spinning like a top for Brinker when she said, "because just about everybody got blindsided by the big sell-off."
Personally, I think it's probably a little bit of both.
.
TFB asked: "Do you have actual evidence of this?"
Good morning....my, you were either up late or early. :)
I have to admit that I may have misspoke when I said she is an "excellent business reporter," since your analysis of her biases are absolutely true.
I should have said that she speaks clearly and has the kind of voice that is suitable for a reporter.
On the other hand, I find her exaggerated enthusiasm and condescending attitude a bit pompous and slightly annoying to listen to for 3 hours in a row.
I endure the torture of it out of love for all of you guys/gals who read this blog. :)
.
It was thus written:
"Larry Swedroe is NOT a market timer and says trying to time the market is about as useless as trying to pick individual stocks."
and
Swedroe is, and always has been, a buy and holder.
My commentary:
While it is not obvious, Larry is a market timer and he would admit it, the distinguishing characteristic is he uses a passive approach to it. So instead of trying to read tea leaves, or charts, or the significance of moss on a rock when Jupiter is in the third house he lets the market level in one or more asset classes relative to when the base was established dictate the buy and sell decisions. But make no mistake, this is market timing, it is just obscured by the methodology employed.
Kindest regards,
tfb
I endure the torture of it out of love for all of you guys/gals who read this blog. :)
And fluffy bunnies...sigh, we are so easily forgotten...
Ms Jimenez earned her money yesterday. Overall I think she was fair to the first caller who was critical of Robert J Brinker by holding him over after a break, though she then said "we need to be brief as we have other callers" after doing most of the talking.
The show seems more entertaining when Lynn fills in. No "thank you for my critical mass, long time subscriber, you're a national treasure" etc.
Always love that last one. Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Bob Brinker. Good company.
"I endure the torture of it out of love for all of you guys/gals who read this blog.
".....and for fluffy bunnies, cute pigs and bird (brains). :)
.
Birdbrain,
Interesting comments about Lynn Jimenez. I'm glad to hear that someone really enjoys listening to her.
I had a different take from yours on her reaction to Mark. I thought she held him over so she could continue damage control.
Perhaps I was a bit biased because of her (IMO) stupid excuse for Brinker missing the bear. I admit that made my hair hurt. :)
.
".. he lets the market level in one or more asset classes relative to when the base was established dictate the buy and sell decisions."
If that means Swedroe re-balances, yes, he says he does that but other than that, it is strictly buy and hold.
I guess if your average Joe the Investor ever bought or sold an investment, you could also call that market timing.
In that sense, everybody with a dime in the market is a market timer.
But again, what good does it do Swedroe to be bullish or bearish if he doesn't plan to do anything about it?
And BTW, I happen to agree with him in that market timing is a fools game.
If that means Swedroe re-balances, yes, he says he does that but other than that, it is strictly buy and hold.
To be clear re-balancing with an asset allocation strategy is market timing. And it is not necessarily passive. Swedroe's approach is passive however.
It also is a form of value investing.
tfb
It was a year ago that Bob Brinker's Moneytalk was cut down to one day a week.
Since then, he's had fill-in hosts on average of once a month. This year, out of 24 weeks, he's been absent all 6 weeks, plus part of a seventh program:
January 2, 2011: Neale Godfrey
February 6, 2011: Two hour program - third hour unannounced re-runs
February 13, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
March 6, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
April 10, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
May 29, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
June 12, 2011: Lynn Jimenez
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From the Wall Street Journal online. ECRI's Achuthan predicts slowdown, not double-dip recession:
June 13, 2011, 4:56 PM ET
By Javier E. David
The U.S. economy is “not yet” headed for a double-dip recession, but a sharp and prolonged downturn is underway and may make jobs growth even tougher to come by, an influential analyst said Monday.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said that over the last few months key indicators of long-term economic growth have all begun pointing in one direction: downward.
“We’re talking about a cyclical turn that’s pronounced pervasive and persistent, not a one or two month affair,” Achuthan said. He added that the slowdown is likely to last a couple of quarters at least — even as he stopped short of calling it a formal recession, which is defined by two quarters of economic contraction.
“This isn’t a story about one country driving [growth] down: China didn’t do this, and the U.S. didn’t’ do this,” he said. “It’s very big…and not something you can deny.”
That means this summer could bear a striking resemblance to last, when a stuttering economy prompted the Federal Reserve to raise the curtain on its controversial $600 billion quantitative easing program. That program will end this month, just as the economy appears to be losing momentum.
“The broad economy is going to slow alongside the industrial sector starting in the middle of this year, so in that sense it may feel like last year,” Achuthan said, adding that closely watched gauges of economic growth will all begin slowing at the same time. “It’s all going to be synchronized.”
Read more:
ECRI’s Achuthan: Prolonged U.S. Slowdown Underway
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David Rosenberg: 99 percent chance of another recession by 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70808782/
Comments on the prior summary reached 100 which qualifies the winner for a free lunch at Gilda's on the Santa Cruz Wharf with me.
Mr. Smile is the grand winner this time.
As I recall, there have been two previous winners. Mr. Pig won first, but I don't recall who the second winner was....
Smile says he will be bringing "wifey." Wives are certainly welcome, but I assure everyone, I am harmless even without wives accompanying us. I happen to believe in the sanctity of marriage...
And I'm certainly not trying to meet hot men so I can pounce on them via this "award." Although I'm sure all the men who read this blog are real "hunks." :)
.
Honey:
We just bring the wife up becasue we know we could not handle you.
tfb
Can't speak for all but I'd bet that all the men who respond to this blog are hunks, manly men.
"Hi dear. Yes, I washed the dishes and took out the garbage. What's that? Of course I'll clean out the garage, right away dear."
Sorry, gotta go.
Real men ask their wife for their wallet when shopping!!!
tfb
TFB,
"Can't handle" me? I'm just a purring pussy cat and I mostly keep my claws in..... LOL!
.
Birdbrain said (obviously to his wife): "Hi dear. Yes, I washed the dishes and took out the garbage. What's that? Of course I'll clean out the garage, right away dear."
I do love a well-trained man -- a wonderful sight to behold. LOL!!!!
BTW: You weren't the "Mark" that called Lynn Jimenez on Sunday, were you? For some reason, I thought of you as I listened to the call.
.
For you TA types, the party's over!
A complex technical pattern known as “three peaks and a domed house” suggests that the two-year old bull market has either just peaked, or will do so in another month.
Michael Kahn writes:
This rather complex pattern was discovered by master chart watcher George Lindsay in the late 1960s. Without getting too deep into the specific theory, it details one of the ways the stock market ebbs and flows as it reaches the end of major bull markets.
The pattern focuses on the Dow Industrials INDU.
As to how low the market can go:
The pattern only forecasts a drop back to the first floor of the house. For the Dow, that would be roughly 9650.
Uh oh!
Maybe they should start calling it “Three peaks and a doomed house.”
Yikes Doubledip....is that guy one of those Bob Brinker "bad news bears?"
Or is Brinker still just living in his church of "buy and hope?" :)
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As we've all have known for sometime, inflation is here in the areas that hit our pocketbooks the most:
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in May as the cost of food, clothing, autos and housing all climbed sharply, according to the latest government data. The consumer price index advanced despite the first decline in energy prices in 11 months. So-called core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.3%, the largest one-month gain since July 2008, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast CPI to be unchanged, with a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Consumer prices have risen 3.6% over the past year, the biggest 12-month increase since October 2008
Consumer prices in US Climbing
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Wow! This is interesting. Maybe Bob Brinker figured this out and that is why he added Vanguard High Yield Fund to his income portfolio:
StockTwits Chart>High Yield has generated an average annualized return of 10.7% over a 30-year period with 6 absolute negative return years - 1980 to 2011
.
Are you saying that you think brinker is right, and 25% is a recommended investment right now by him?
Finisar report weakens optical firms
JDS Uniphase, Ciena, Oclaro shares fall in reaction to results, forecastStories You Might Like
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Optical-networking companies, which are typically among the most-volatile in all of the tech sector, found themselves facing the ire of investors Thursday following a disappointing earnings report and quarterly outlook from Finisar Corp.
Finisar FNSR -17.30% shares fell $3.48, or almost 20%, to $14.33 after the company said late Wednesday that it earned $16.4 million, or 17 cents a share, on revenue of $236.9 million. Excluding one-time items, Finisar would have earned 33 cents a share, to meet the estimates of analysts surveyed by FactSet Research.
Anonymous,
I saw that. This is twice that FNSR had taken a terrific dive.
The last time it happened, a family member who owned it, sold the night before. Now that is timing. I think it was feminine intuition.
PS: You report some good stuff, why not create a handle so we know it's you?
.
Pig asked: "Are you saying that you think brinker is right, and 25% is a recommended investment right now by him?"
Mr. Pig,
I must be having a blonde moment because I do not understand your question. Could you expound for me a little bit -- that is, if the question is intended for me? :)
.
I must be having a blonde moment because I do not understand your question. Could you expound for me a little bit -- that is, if the question is intended for me? :)
Yes, the question is for you, Ms Honey, but I can try to make it more clear.
Are you saying that you think Brinker might be right on the mark by recommending a 25% holding in the Vanguard High Yield fund? Or do you think he is crazy holding so much.
Do you prefer a different fund or ETF, such as JNK?
It seems that ETF's have a better return.
Level 4 nuclear emergency at a plant in Nebraska.
http://www.businessinsider.com/faa-closes-airspace-over-flooded-nebraska-nuclear-power-plant-2011-6
Hopefully Brinker will tell us again how safe nuclear power is again this weekend.
Joey
Pig asked: "Are you saying that you think Brinker might be right on the mark by recommending a 25% holding in the Vanguard High Yield fund? Or do you think he is crazy holding so much.
Do you prefer a different fund or ETF, such as JNK?
It seems that ETF's have a better return."
Yes, I am saying that. Although with one caveat, when the economy tanks, high-yield funds will drop, sometimes like a rock and he rode it down in 2008.
Bob Brinker added Vanguard High Yield Fund (VWEHX) for the first time in April 11, 2003: Marketimer: Brinker wrote: "Effective at the close on April 11, we are reducing our page seven all fixed-income portfolio weighting in Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund from 50% to 35%, and we are introducing a 15% weighting in the Vanguard High-Yield Croporate Fund. We believe the potential for an improvement in the economic outlook going forward will create a better climate of for high-yield bonds as default rates ease over time. This fund has a very low expense ratio of 0.30"
Since then Brinker has sold his Ginnie Mae holdings down to 15% and sold all TIPS and raised high-yield weighting to 25%.
Brinker is a buy-and-hold advisor, but I'm not. Brinker's followers rode the high-yield bear all the way down in 2008 and back up again, and so far is doing the same thing now.
However, I recently sold all of my JNK within pennies of the top, with a nice capital gain, and have been watching the recent correction with much interest. I may buy it back soon.
I bought NLY with most of the proceeds and made more capital gains, although it's on paper right now. I don't plan to sell, but I change my mind on a dime -- or less. :)
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Mr. Pig,
I forgot to say that I also own Vanguard High-Yield fund for a long term re-invest dividends investment. I think it's a great fund, but if the economy goes into a deep recession, I will sell it.
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Mmmm. NLY rings a bell. Didn't we know an expert from that thread a long time ago?
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